J Addai vs. D Williams (1 Viewer)

[Giggity]

DWilly seems to have some game, but I don`t trust John Fox. I can see Fox using a RBBC again this year.

duh

Team B is sitll better.

 

[Family Matters]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs. I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.I really think his future is bright.

We might have a better handle on things based on whether the Colts draft a RB on Saturday. The fact that Addai split carries in college, and then split carries last year with a player (Rhodes) who I feel was much less talented, makes me wonder if he will be most effective as part of a RBBC. Obviously, if Indy doesn't move to acquire another RB, then that will be a vote of confidence in Addai.Maybe I'll end up missing out, but until I see him carry the load for a full season, I'll be sceptical of his ability to do so.

Good point. I fully expect Indy to draft a RB after round 2. Last year they signed Rhodes to a short term deal and then went out and got Addai in the first. Now that they have their man I expect them to find a late first day or early 2nd day RB to help with the load.

 

[Kit Fisto]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs. I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.I really think his future is bright.

We might have a better handle on things based on whether the Colts draft a RB on Saturday. The fact that Addai split carries in college, and then split carries last year with a player (Rhodes) who I feel was much less talented, makes me wonder if he will be most effective as part of a RBBC. Obviously, if Indy doesn't move to acquire another RB, then that will be a vote of confidence in Addai.Maybe I'll end up missing out, but until I see him carry the load for a full season, I'll be sceptical of his ability to do so.

:X We'll see Saturday night if you Addai guys still feel the same as you do now.

 

[Routilla]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs. I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.I really think his future is bright.

We might have a better handle on things based on whether the Colts draft a RB on Saturday. The fact that Addai split carries in college, and then split carries last year with a player (Rhodes) who I feel was much less talented, makes me wonder if he will be most effective as part of a RBBC. Obviously, if Indy doesn't move to acquire another RB, then that will be a vote of confidence in Addai.Maybe I'll end up missing out, but until I see him carry the load for a full season, I'll be sceptical of his ability to do so.

We'll see Saturday night if you Addai guys still feel the same as you do now.

Of course we will. He has both Manning's and Dungy's endorsement. He's the guy in IND. I expect them to use 2 RBs but Addai will certainly get the bulk of the work barring injury. He played big last year and I think everyone knows he helped them win the title. There are many other teams with more ?s at RB.

 

[Family Matters]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs. I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.I really think his future is bright.

We might have a better handle on things based on whether the Colts draft a RB on Saturday. The fact that Addai split carries in college, and then split carries last year with a player (Rhodes) who I feel was much less talented, makes me wonder if he will be most effective as part of a RBBC. Obviously, if Indy doesn't move to acquire another RB, then that will be a vote of confidence in Addai.Maybe I'll end up missing out, but until I see him carry the load for a full season, I'll be sceptical of his ability to do so.

We'll see Saturday night if you Addai guys still feel the same as you do now.

So you're suggesting that Indy will draft another RB to share the load? Based on what? Outside of last year, which was out of necessity, they've never doen that. They've always been a 1 back system. Last year they played it careful to be sure they had what they needed. But do you really think they invested a first pick to go RBBC? Not only is that a bad idea from a player perspective but teams cannot afford to invest that much into their backs and have money for all the needs teams usually have. Most RBBC are temporary transitional situations.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs.

I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.

I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.

So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.

To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.

I really think his future is bright.

We might have a better handle on things based on whether the Colts draft a RB on Saturday. The fact that Addai split carries in college, and then split carries last year with a player (Rhodes) who I feel was much less talented, makes me wonder if he will be most effective as part of a RBBC. Obviously, if Indy doesn't move to acquire another RB, then that will be a vote of confidence in Addai.Maybe I'll end up missing out, but until I see him carry the load for a full season, I'll be sceptical of his ability to do so.

We'll see Saturday night if you Addai guys still feel the same as you do now.

So you're suggesting that Indy will draft another RB to share the load? Based on what? Outside of last year, which was out of necessity, they've never doen that. They've always been a 1 back system. Last year they played it careful to be sure they had what they needed. But do you really think they invested a first pick to go RBBC? Not only is that a bad idea from a player perspective but teams cannot afford to invest that much into their backs and have money for all the needs teams usually have. Most RBBC are temporary transitional situations.

Necessity? Huh? Indy split carries by design. Ceratinly, by the time the playoffs rolled around, if Addai had been able/worthy of the full time load, he would have gotten it. Obviously, the Colts felt that splitting carries gave them the best chance to win, and they were right. Rhodes got more carries in the Super Bowl, and it certainly wasn't a situation forced on them by necessity. They chose not to give Addai the full workload.The fact that Faulk and Edge each were 300+ carry RBs is much less relevant here than the fact that Addai split carries throughout college and his rookie year in the NFL, to me. Further, isn't Polian on record last last saying something along the lines of: "it'll take more than one guy to fill the RB spot?" I don't feel like searching for it , but I recall something along those lines. Seems to me like that is exactly what happened last year.

Addai could turn into a 350 - 400 touch player this year, but it is certainly no lock, and claiming that the RBBC was forced on the Colts in some way as opposed to a deliberate choice is distorting reality quite a bit.

 

[Family Matters]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs.

I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.

I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.

So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.

To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.

I really think his future is bright.

We might have a better handle on things based on whether the Colts draft a RB on Saturday. The fact that Addai split carries in college, and then split carries last year with a player (Rhodes) who I feel was much less talented, makes me wonder if he will be most effective as part of a RBBC. Obviously, if Indy doesn't move to acquire another RB, then that will be a vote of confidence in Addai.Maybe I'll end up missing out, but until I see him carry the load for a full season, I'll be sceptical of his ability to do so.

We'll see Saturday night if you Addai guys still feel the same as you do now.

So you're suggesting that Indy will draft another RB to share the load? Based on what? Outside of last year, which was out of necessity, they've never doen that. They've always been a 1 back system. Last year they played it careful to be sure they had what they needed. But do you really think they invested a first pick to go RBBC? Not only is that a bad idea from a player perspective but teams cannot afford to invest that much into their backs and have money for all the needs teams usually have. Most RBBC are temporary transitional situations.

Necessity? Huh? Indy split carries by design. Ceratinly, by the time the playoffs rolled around, if Addai had been able/worthy of the full time load, he would have gotten it. Obviously, the Colts felt that splitting carries gave them the best chance to win, and they were right. Rhodes got more carries in the Super Bowl, and it certainly wasn't a situation forced on them by necessity. They chose not to give Addai the full workload.The fact that Faulk and Edge each were 300+ carry RBs is much less relevant here than the fact that Addai split carries throughout college and his rookie year in the NFL, to me. Further, isn't Polian on record last last saying something along the lines of: "it'll take more than one guy to fill the RB spot?" I don't feel like searching for it , but I recall something along those lines. Seems to me like that is exactly what happened last year.

Addai could turn into a 350 - 400 touch player this year, but it is certainly no lock, and claiming that the RBBC was forced on the Colts in some way as opposed to a deliberate choice is distorting reality quite a bit.

Allow me to clear the disotrtion for you so you don't think I'm just making this up. What started as need later became convenience. This has been fairly easy to follow as far as I'm concerned so I really don't thing this is a big surprise:1. Indy let James go.

2. Indy signs Rhodes to what amounts to a 1 year deal to ensure they have a back that can knows the system and can pass protect. This is very important. With a 1 year deal, clearly they don't feel he's the man.

3. Indy spends 1st round pick on a RB. Again, clearly they don't think Rhodes is the man.

4. Rhodes is released becasue he isn't the man and they don't want a RBBC. It's too expensive and they now know they have their man.

The reason I say they were playing it careful is because they didn't know who they were getting in the draft. More importantly, they didn't know how long it would take to learn the system and become a viable pass blocker for Manning. So now they have Rhodes, a 1 year solution, and Addai who is learning the system. Why would they only use the rookie when they have the opportunity to use both and allow Addai the chance to learn and grow. Several comments were made that supported the RBBC approach and it makes sense as they have 2 egos to satisfy at the time.

What Addai did in college is of little relevance now. He's established himself as an NFL back. He's healthy and he had a 4.8 YPC which is outstanding. 266 touches demostrate he can handle the job.

Finally, if Indy felt RBBC was the solution, then why spend 1st round money on a RB? Draft a couple of 2nd-4th round guys that can fill in and spend much less.

Polian has a great track record of finding good backs. He's done that agian. If you want to doubt my analysis that's fine. Go with his. He's proven his ability to find good backs. Who am I to disagree? I'm just saying what I think is pretty obvious.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Allow me to clear the disotrtion for you so you don't think I'm just making this up. What started as need later became convenience. This has been fairly easy to follow as far as I'm concerned so I really don't thing this is a big surprise:1. Indy let James go.2. Indy signs Rhodes to what amounts to a 1 year deal to ensure they have a back that can knows the system and can pass protect. This is very important. With a 1 year deal, clearly they don't feel he's the man.3. Indy spends 1st round pick on a RB. Again, clearly they don't think Rhodes is the man.4. Rhodes is released becasue he isn't the man and they don't want a RBBC. It's too expensive and they now know they have their man.The reason I say they were playing it careful is because they didn't know who they were getting in the draft. More importantly, they didn't know how long it would take to learn the system and become a viable pass blocker for Manning. So now they have Rhodes, a 1 year solution, and Addai who is learning the system. Why would they only use the rookie when they have the opportunity to use both and allow Addai the chance to learn and grow. Several comments were made that supported the RBBC approach and it makes sense as they have 2 egos to satisfy at the time.What Addai did in college is of little relevance now. He's established himself as an NFL back. He's healthy and he had a 4.8 YPC which is outstanding. 266 touches demostrate he can handle the job. Finally, if Indy felt RBBC was the solution, then why spend 1st round money on a RB? Draft a couple of 2nd-4th round guys that can fill in and spend much less.Polian has a great track record of finding good backs. He's done that agian. If you want to doubt my analysis that's fine. Go with his. He's proven his ability to find good backs. Who am I to disagree? I'm just saying what I think is pretty obvious.

You claimed earlier that the RBBC was forced on the Colts out of necessity. That is what I was refuting. At the beginning of the year, maybe. By the playoff run, Addai was obviously fully integrated into the Colts offense. He also performed at a higher level than did Rhodes. Just because Rhodes was on the roster doesn't mean that giving him carries was "a necessity." If Addai was capable of handling the full load, and giving him more carries would have given the Colts a chance to win, then that is exactly what would have happened. It didn't.How is Addai's college track record irrelevant, when the exact same pattern unfolded during his rookie year in the NFL? Addai's effectiveness last year is what is irrelevant. No one is disputing that he is a quality RB here at all (at least I am not). What is up for debate is your assumption that he'll see the 350 - 400 touches needed to make him a top five RB next year and going forward, when, in fact, the evidence points directly to a continuation of some type of RBBC.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Allow me to clear the disotrtion for you so you don't think I'm just making this up. What started as need later became convenience. This has been fairly easy to follow as far as I'm concerned so I really don't thing this is a big surprise:1. Indy let James go.2. Indy signs Rhodes to what amounts to a 1 year deal to ensure they have a back that can knows the system and can pass protect. This is very important. With a 1 year deal, clearly they don't feel he's the man.3. Indy spends 1st round pick on a RB. Again, clearly they don't think Rhodes is the man.4. Rhodes is released becasue he isn't the man and they don't want a RBBC. It's too expensive and they now know they have their man.The reason I say they were playing it careful is because they didn't know who they were getting in the draft. More importantly, they didn't know how long it would take to learn the system and become a viable pass blocker for Manning. So now they have Rhodes, a 1 year solution, and Addai who is learning the system. Why would they only use the rookie when they have the opportunity to use both and allow Addai the chance to learn and grow. Several comments were made that supported the RBBC approach and it makes sense as they have 2 egos to satisfy at the time.What Addai did in college is of little relevance now. He's established himself as an NFL back. He's healthy and he had a 4.8 YPC which is outstanding. 266 touches demostrate he can handle the job. Finally, if Indy felt RBBC was the solution, then why spend 1st round money on a RB? Draft a couple of 2nd-4th round guys that can fill in and spend much less.Polian has a great track record of finding good backs. He's done that agian. If you want to doubt my analysis that's fine. Go with his. He's proven his ability to find good backs. Who am I to disagree? I'm just saying what I think is pretty obvious.

You claimed earlier that the RBBC was forced on the Colts out of necessity. That is what I was refuting. At the beginning of the year, maybe. By the playoff run, Addai was obviously fully integrated into the Colts offense. He also performed at a higher level than did Rhodes. Just because Rhodes was on the roster doesn't mean that giving him carries was "a necessity." If Addai was capable of handling the full load, and giving him more carries would have given the Colts a chance to win, then that is exactly what would have happened. It didn't.How is Addai's college track record irrelevant, when the exact same pattern unfolded during his rookie year in the NFL? Addai's effectiveness last year is what is irrelevant. No one is disputing that he is a quality RB here at all (at least I am not). What is up for debate is your assumption that he'll see the 350 - 400 touches needed to make him a top five RB next year and going forward, when, in fact, the evidence points directly to a continuation of some type of RBBC.

There are always going to be question marks heading into a season. I don't think Indy drafting a RB will change anyones opinion because they will be doing it for depth not as much a threat to steal a lot of carries. The only scenario I would be scared of is if Lynch is available and Indy drafts him which I think is a long shot at best. I mean I was a doubter of Willie Parker last season and I also doubted Tiki Barber in the past. Sometimes you are right with your analysis and sometimes you are wrong. I think the Addai owners will be rewarded, but that is my analysis and it could be proven wrong.

 

[cstu]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs.

I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.

I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.

So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.

To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.

I really think his future is bright.

I thought the same about Barlow in 2004.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs.

I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.

I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.

So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.

To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.

I really think his future is bright.

I thought the same about Barlow in 2004.

Barlow's situation vs Addai's situation where drastically different.

 

[cstu]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs.

I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.

I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.

So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.

To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.

I really think his future is bright.

I thought the same about Barlow in 2004.

Barlow's situation vs Addai's situation where drastically different.

I'm not going to disagree, but it won't be the first time that a RB looked great splitting carries but didn't respond as expected with the full load. In this case, Addai is in a much better situation so the odds are in his favor, however, there still is risk.

 

[Family Matters]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs.

I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.

I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.

So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.

To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.

I really think his future is bright.

I thought the same about Barlow in 2004.

Barlow's situation vs Addai's situation where drastically different.

You are right. You cannot just say what he said. You have to look at the situation.Barlow was a 3rd round pick. Addai was a 1st.

Barlow was drafted to help Hearst in what was a RBBC by design. Hearst was not released after 1 season.

SF was not considerede an explosive offense after Barlow was the lead back. They got rid of TO and Garcia and were having problems with the line. That's nothing like Indy.

If Indy did not have Manning, Harrison and started having problems on the Oline then we wouldn't be having this discussion about Addai.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs.

I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.

I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.

So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.

To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.

I really think his future is bright.

I thought the same about Barlow in 2004.

Barlow's situation vs Addai's situation where drastically different.

You are right. You cannot just say what he said. You have to look at the situation.Barlow was a 3rd round pick. Addai was a 1st.

Barlow was drafted to help Hearst in what was a RBBC by design. Hearst was not released after 1 season.

SF was not considerede an explosive offense after Barlow was the lead back. They got rid of TO and Garcia and were having problems with the line. That's nothing like Indy.

If Indy did not have Manning, Harrison and started having problems on the Oline then we wouldn't be having this discussion about Addai.

Again, how was the Colts RBBC at the end of last year not "by design?"

 

[Ned]

Allow me to clear the disotrtion for you so you don't think I'm just making this up. What started as need later became convenience. This has been fairly easy to follow as far as I'm concerned so I really don't thing this is a big surprise:1. Indy let James go.2. Indy signs Rhodes to what amounts to a 1 year deal to ensure they have a back that can knows the system and can pass protect. This is very important. With a 1 year deal, clearly they don't feel he's the man.3. Indy spends 1st round pick on a RB. Again, clearly they don't think Rhodes is the man.4. Rhodes is released becasue he isn't the man and they don't want a RBBC. It's too expensive and they now know they have their man.The reason I say they were playing it careful is because they didn't know who they were getting in the draft. More importantly, they didn't know how long it would take to learn the system and become a viable pass blocker for Manning. So now they have Rhodes, a 1 year solution, and Addai who is learning the system. Why would they only use the rookie when they have the opportunity to use both and allow Addai the chance to learn and grow. Several comments were made that supported the RBBC approach and it makes sense as they have 2 egos to satisfy at the time.What Addai did in college is of little relevance now. He's established himself as an NFL back. He's healthy and he had a 4.8 YPC which is outstanding. 266 touches demostrate he can handle the job. Finally, if Indy felt RBBC was the solution, then why spend 1st round money on a RB? Draft a couple of 2nd-4th round guys that can fill in and spend much less.Polian has a great track record of finding good backs. He's done that agian. If you want to doubt my analysis that's fine. Go with his. He's proven his ability to find good backs. Who am I to disagree? I'm just saying what I think is pretty obvious.

nice post, but to be honest a lot of this sounds like wishful thinking.now i'm not saying they won the super bowl this year because of the rbbc approach but you can't help but think that they would want to keep the same style in place. if it ain't broke, don't fix it. rhodes left to get his payday (rightfully deserved if you ask me). it will be very interesting to see who indy drafts this weekend. put me down on the list of people who think they're taking an rb day 1.

 

[Routilla]

Allow me to clear the disotrtion for you so you don't think I'm just making this up. What started as need later became convenience. This has been fairly easy to follow as far as I'm concerned so I really don't thing this is a big surprise:1. Indy let James go.2. Indy signs Rhodes to what amounts to a 1 year deal to ensure they have a back that can knows the system and can pass protect. This is very important. With a 1 year deal, clearly they don't feel he's the man.3. Indy spends 1st round pick on a RB. Again, clearly they don't think Rhodes is the man.4. Rhodes is released becasue he isn't the man and they don't want a RBBC. It's too expensive and they now know they have their man.The reason I say they were playing it careful is because they didn't know who they were getting in the draft. More importantly, they didn't know how long it would take to learn the system and become a viable pass blocker for Manning. So now they have Rhodes, a 1 year solution, and Addai who is learning the system. Why would they only use the rookie when they have the opportunity to use both and allow Addai the chance to learn and grow. Several comments were made that supported the RBBC approach and it makes sense as they have 2 egos to satisfy at the time.What Addai did in college is of little relevance now. He's established himself as an NFL back. He's healthy and he had a 4.8 YPC which is outstanding. 266 touches demostrate he can handle the job. Finally, if Indy felt RBBC was the solution, then why spend 1st round money on a RB? Draft a couple of 2nd-4th round guys that can fill in and spend much less.Polian has a great track record of finding good backs. He's done that agian. If you want to doubt my analysis that's fine. Go with his. He's proven his ability to find good backs. Who am I to disagree? I'm just saying what I think is pretty obvious.

Excellent point. Anyone who thinks Addai will not be the guy was not paying attention last year. As a rookie he gained Manning and Dungy's confidence. He showed a physical running style and good hands as a receiver(remember the SB vs CHI?) I wouldn't want to overthink this on draft day and end up missing out on quite an obviously good situation for Addai in IND.

 

[Family Matters]

Allow me to clear the disotrtion for you so you don't think I'm just making this up. What started as need later became convenience. This has been fairly easy to follow as far as I'm concerned so I really don't thing this is a big surprise:1. Indy let James go.2. Indy signs Rhodes to what amounts to a 1 year deal to ensure they have a back that can knows the system and can pass protect. This is very important. With a 1 year deal, clearly they don't feel he's the man.3. Indy spends 1st round pick on a RB. Again, clearly they don't think Rhodes is the man.4. Rhodes is released becasue he isn't the man and they don't want a RBBC. It's too expensive and they now know they have their man.The reason I say they were playing it careful is because they didn't know who they were getting in the draft. More importantly, they didn't know how long it would take to learn the system and become a viable pass blocker for Manning. So now they have Rhodes, a 1 year solution, and Addai who is learning the system. Why would they only use the rookie when they have the opportunity to use both and allow Addai the chance to learn and grow. Several comments were made that supported the RBBC approach and it makes sense as they have 2 egos to satisfy at the time.What Addai did in college is of little relevance now. He's established himself as an NFL back. He's healthy and he had a 4.8 YPC which is outstanding. 266 touches demostrate he can handle the job. Finally, if Indy felt RBBC was the solution, then why spend 1st round money on a RB? Draft a couple of 2nd-4th round guys that can fill in and spend much less.Polian has a great track record of finding good backs. He's done that agian. If you want to doubt my analysis that's fine. Go with his. He's proven his ability to find good backs. Who am I to disagree? I'm just saying what I think is pretty obvious.

You claimed earlier that the RBBC was forced on the Colts out of necessity. That is what I was refuting. At the beginning of the year, maybe. By the playoff run, Addai was obviously fully integrated into the Colts offense. He also performed at a higher level than did Rhodes. Just because Rhodes was on the roster doesn't mean that giving him carries was "a necessity." If Addai was capable of handling the full load, and giving him more carries would have given the Colts a chance to win, then that is exactly what would have happened. It didn't.How is Addai's college track record irrelevant, when the exact same pattern unfolded during his rookie year in the NFL? Addai's effectiveness last year is what is irrelevant. No one is disputing that he is a quality RB here at all (at least I am not). What is up for debate is your assumption that he'll see the 350 - 400 touches needed to make him a top five RB next year and going forward, when, in fact, the evidence points directly to a continuation of some type of RBBC.

Let me clarify again. I did not say they were forced into doing anything. Go back and read what I said. What they did was very caluculated. They chose this path by design. And that's why I recognize that Addai is now and will be the feature back. Barring injury and a major offensive collapse, he should put up top 7 RB numbers if not top 5. Will there be another back in the mix. Yes, just like every other team in the NFL. Will he likely be a 300 carry back? Yes again. Will he likely have around 50 catches? Yes. This is all based on what we see happening and his performance last year.You can hang your hat on what happened last year (RBBC) but you will miss out on Addai. If this is a matter of you just don't like Addai then just say so. But let's not kid ourselves here. What he did in college has nothing to do with Indy. Do you really think they invested a 1st round pick to use him like they did in school? Do you really think that's how Indy sees this? One has nothing to do with the other.And then you're suggesting his performance last year has nothing to do with this? Not sure what to say to you on that. If you really feel that way then I cannot help. As for the evidence points to a continued trend of RBBC, then I have to ask what evidence you're looking at? You do realize they released Rhodes don't you? They've not replaced him with a FA. And we're all in agreement that Indy will draft a RB this weekend, just not another 1st/2nd rounder.

 

[Family Matters]

Allow me to clear the disotrtion for you so you don't think I'm just making this up. What started as need later became convenience. This has been fairly easy to follow as far as I'm concerned so I really don't thing this is a big surprise:1. Indy let James go.2. Indy signs Rhodes to what amounts to a 1 year deal to ensure they have a back that can knows the system and can pass protect. This is very important. With a 1 year deal, clearly they don't feel he's the man.3. Indy spends 1st round pick on a RB. Again, clearly they don't think Rhodes is the man.4. Rhodes is released becasue he isn't the man and they don't want a RBBC. It's too expensive and they now know they have their man.The reason I say they were playing it careful is because they didn't know who they were getting in the draft. More importantly, they didn't know how long it would take to learn the system and become a viable pass blocker for Manning. So now they have Rhodes, a 1 year solution, and Addai who is learning the system. Why would they only use the rookie when they have the opportunity to use both and allow Addai the chance to learn and grow. Several comments were made that supported the RBBC approach and it makes sense as they have 2 egos to satisfy at the time.What Addai did in college is of little relevance now. He's established himself as an NFL back. He's healthy and he had a 4.8 YPC which is outstanding. 266 touches demostrate he can handle the job. Finally, if Indy felt RBBC was the solution, then why spend 1st round money on a RB? Draft a couple of 2nd-4th round guys that can fill in and spend much less.Polian has a great track record of finding good backs. He's done that agian. If you want to doubt my analysis that's fine. Go with his. He's proven his ability to find good backs. Who am I to disagree? I'm just saying what I think is pretty obvious.

nice post, but to be honest a lot of this sounds like wishful thinking.now i'm not saying they won the super bowl this year because of the rbbc approach but you can't help but think that they would want to keep the same style in place. if it ain't broke, don't fix it. rhodes left to get his payday (rightfully deserved if you ask me). it will be very interesting to see who indy drafts this weekend. put me down on the list of people who think they're taking an rb day 1.

If you're among those that feel Indy goes RB first round then I can see why you're playing it conservative on Addai.Now think about this for a moment. How many teams have drafted back to back 1st round RB's? How many team did so with a successful 1st rounder on their roster?Now think about this. If they were unwilling to pay Rhodes who was proven back in this system, why would they pay another unproven 1st rounder even more money? Your point doesn't hold up well when you give it alittle thought. Guys, teams can't afford to pay 2 backs like that. That's why Rhodes is gone from Indy. Rhodes isn't even making starter money and they didn't want to pay him. I seriously doubt they will do so with another 1st. They have far more pressing issues than a RB need. Tehy'll address this later in the draft.

 

[Family Matters]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs.

I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.

I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.

So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.

To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.

I really think his future is bright.

I thought the same about Barlow in 2004.

Barlow's situation vs Addai's situation where drastically different.

You are right. You cannot just say what he said. You have to look at the situation.Barlow was a 3rd round pick. Addai was a 1st.

Barlow was drafted to help Hearst in what was a RBBC by design. Hearst was not released after 1 season.

SF was not considerede an explosive offense after Barlow was the lead back. They got rid of TO and Garcia and were having problems with the line. That's nothing like Indy.

If Indy did not have Manning, Harrison and started having problems on the Oline then we wouldn't be having this discussion about Addai.

Again, how was the Colts RBBC at the end of last year not "by design?"

It was by design for 1 year. I've explained this fairly clearly now.

 

[Kit Fisto]

Put me down on the list of people who think they're taking an rb day 1.

Kit Fisto makes two.Like I said earlier, we'll see come Saturday night. Indy drafts Kenny Irons or Tony Hunt or Lorenzo Booker in the 2nd/3rd round, and we'll all be singing a different tune. Should the Colts pass on RB and bring in no real threat to steal carries frm Addai, then you can put him in the Top 5 if you'd like.

 

[Ned]

Allow me to clear the disotrtion for you so you don't think I'm just making this up. What started as need later became convenience. This has been fairly easy to follow as far as I'm concerned so I really don't thing this is a big surprise:1. Indy let James go.2. Indy signs Rhodes to what amounts to a 1 year deal to ensure they have a back that can knows the system and can pass protect. This is very important. With a 1 year deal, clearly they don't feel he's the man.3. Indy spends 1st round pick on a RB. Again, clearly they don't think Rhodes is the man.4. Rhodes is released becasue he isn't the man and they don't want a RBBC. It's too expensive and they now know they have their man.The reason I say they were playing it careful is because they didn't know who they were getting in the draft. More importantly, they didn't know how long it would take to learn the system and become a viable pass blocker for Manning. So now they have Rhodes, a 1 year solution, and Addai who is learning the system. Why would they only use the rookie when they have the opportunity to use both and allow Addai the chance to learn and grow. Several comments were made that supported the RBBC approach and it makes sense as they have 2 egos to satisfy at the time.What Addai did in college is of little relevance now. He's established himself as an NFL back. He's healthy and he had a 4.8 YPC which is outstanding. 266 touches demostrate he can handle the job. Finally, if Indy felt RBBC was the solution, then why spend 1st round money on a RB? Draft a couple of 2nd-4th round guys that can fill in and spend much less.Polian has a great track record of finding good backs. He's done that agian. If you want to doubt my analysis that's fine. Go with his. He's proven his ability to find good backs. Who am I to disagree? I'm just saying what I think is pretty obvious.

nice post, but to be honest a lot of this sounds like wishful thinking.now i'm not saying they won the super bowl this year because of the rbbc approach but you can't help but think that they would want to keep the same style in place. if it ain't broke, don't fix it. rhodes left to get his payday (rightfully deserved if you ask me). it will be very interesting to see who indy drafts this weekend. put me down on the list of people who think they're taking an rb day 1.

If you're among those that feel Indy goes RB first round then I can see why you're playing it conservative on Addai.Now think about this for a moment. How many teams have drafted back to back 1st round RB's? How many team did so with a successful 1st rounder on their roster?Now think about this. If they were unwilling to pay Rhodes who was proven back in this system, why would they pay another unproven 1st rounder even more money? Your point doesn't hold up well when you give it alittle thought. Guys, teams can't afford to pay 2 backs like that. That's why Rhodes is gone from Indy. Rhodes isn't even making starter money and they didn't want to pay him. I seriously doubt they will do so with another 1st. They have far more pressing issues than a RB need. Tehy'll address this later in the draft.

i said day 1, not rd 1. big difference.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Let me clarify again. I did not say they were forced into doing anything. Go back and read what I said.

Well, that's how I interpreted "out of necessity." Necessity certainly implies a lack of choice.

What they did was very caluculated. They chose this path by design.

We agree here.

And that's why I recognize that Addai is now and will be the feature back. Barring injury and a major offensive collapse, he should put up top 7 RB numbers if not top 5.

Not a logical leap at all. "Indy chose to run a RBBC last year, so this year they won't."

Will there be another back in the mix. Yes, just like every other team in the NFL. Will he likely be a 300 carry back? Yes again. Will he likely have around 50 catches? Yes.

I'll assume that you are talking about Addai as the 300 carry back, here. Again though, none of your logic seems to result in that particular conclusion.

This is all based on what we see happening and his performance last year.

Addai's effectiveness last year is NOT what we are discussing. I fully agree that he was very effective, and was an integral part of the Super Bowl run. He looked great. For about the 5th time, the question up for interpretation and discussion involves his workload. Throughout his entire career, he has split carries in a RBBC, and obviously been effective doing so. The leap from 260ish touches to 350 - 400 is a huge one. Is it that unreasonable to say that Addai just might be more effective with less of a workload? And if not, why hasn't he been fully featured at any point in his playing career?

You can hang your hat on what happened last year (RBBC) but you will miss out on Addai. If this is a matter of you just don't like Addai then just say so.

Again: Disagreeing with you and not liking Addai are two very different things. I think he is a very safe bet to end up in the top 10 - 12 RBs, but very unlikely to ascend into the top five. That is hardly disliking him.

But let's not kid ourselves here. What he did in college has nothing to do with Indy.

You are contradicting yourself. If college has nothing to do with the current situation, then his 1st round status, which you keep bringing up, is also irrelevant. The fact remains that Addai's entire career, both college and professional, has followed the exact same pattern. He has always split carries, and has always been effective doing so. Why would that change?

Do you really think they invested a 1st round pick to use him like they did in school? Do you really think that's how Indy sees this? One has nothing to do with the other.

Yeah, a team would never draft a guy at the end of the first round to be an effective part-time player. Ever hear of Reggie Bush or DeAngelo Williams? Seems to me that they were drafted, higher than Addai, to be part of a RBBC.

And then you're suggesting his performance last year has nothing to do with this? Not sure what to say to you on that. If you really feel that way then I cannot help.

His performance is not up for debate. Again, I agree that he was very effective. [Looked good on 266 touches in 2006 --> will get 350+ touches in 2007] isn't a logical leap to me. At least it isn't as logical as: [split carries in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 --> will split carries in 2007]

As for the evidence points to a continued trend of RBBC, then I have to ask what evidence you're looking at?

See above.

You do realize they released Rhodes don't you?

Obviously they felt that it makes more sense to draft a much less expensive rokkie to fill his role as opposed to what it would have cost to resign him.

They've not replaced him with a FA.

And of course free agency would be the only possible place to find another RB to replace him.

And we're all in agreement that Indy will draft a RB this weekend, just not another 1st/2nd rounder.

For me, it doesn't matter where they draft a RB, really. At some point I think it likely that Indy will find a guy to share the load with Addai.

No one here is saying that Addai doesn't merit a high selection, fantasy-wise. There is just a HUGE difference between getting a guy around the 1st/2nd turn (assuming 10 - 12 teams) and taking him in the top five.

 

[C Boswell]

bottom line is you can find a positive and a negative in any FF player. We'd be better off prefacing whether or not we like a guy before we start writing books for everyone to read.

I'm an Addai owner and a Carolina Panther fan. (live in NC)

i keep reading how Addai has had health issues...thats been two years now guys. why are we not reading about DeAngelo's horrible ankles whch have been broken, i believe, 3/4 times since high school?? he even mised a game or two his last year at memphis b/c of it. something Addai didnt miss.

Addai is not an elite back, but DeAngelo will never get to the point Addai's at right now. do you really want to take a chance on the third overall pick coming through for you...maybe/maybe not.

if you believe in DeAngelo, you make the trade. If not, you don't. I've come to believe that asking the forum only confuses you more when attempting to make a decision...

 

[Family Matters]

Put me down on the list of people who think they're taking an rb day 1.

Kit Fisto makes two.Like I said earlier, we'll see come Saturday night. Indy drafts Kenny Irons or Tony Hunt or Lorenzo Booker in the 2nd/3rd round, and we'll all be singing a different tune. Should the Colts pass on RB and bring in no real threat to steal carries frm Addai, then you can put him in the Top 5 if you'd like.

So now can we do that? Or do you think a 2nd day player is a real threat? I think we can move forward on him now.

 

[Family Matters]

Allow me to clear the disotrtion for you so you don't think I'm just making this up. What started as need later became convenience. This has been fairly easy to follow as far as I'm concerned so I really don't thing this is a big surprise:1. Indy let James go.2. Indy signs Rhodes to what amounts to a 1 year deal to ensure they have a back that can knows the system and can pass protect. This is very important. With a 1 year deal, clearly they don't feel he's the man.3. Indy spends 1st round pick on a RB. Again, clearly they don't think Rhodes is the man.4. Rhodes is released becasue he isn't the man and they don't want a RBBC. It's too expensive and they now know they have their man.The reason I say they were playing it careful is because they didn't know who they were getting in the draft. More importantly, they didn't know how long it would take to learn the system and become a viable pass blocker for Manning. So now they have Rhodes, a 1 year solution, and Addai who is learning the system. Why would they only use the rookie when they have the opportunity to use both and allow Addai the chance to learn and grow. Several comments were made that supported the RBBC approach and it makes sense as they have 2 egos to satisfy at the time.What Addai did in college is of little relevance now. He's established himself as an NFL back. He's healthy and he had a 4.8 YPC which is outstanding. 266 touches demostrate he can handle the job. Finally, if Indy felt RBBC was the solution, then why spend 1st round money on a RB? Draft a couple of 2nd-4th round guys that can fill in and spend much less.Polian has a great track record of finding good backs. He's done that agian. If you want to doubt my analysis that's fine. Go with his. He's proven his ability to find good backs. Who am I to disagree? I'm just saying what I think is pretty obvious.

nice post, but to be honest a lot of this sounds like wishful thinking.now i'm not saying they won the super bowl this year because of the rbbc approach but you can't help but think that they would want to keep the same style in place. if it ain't broke, don't fix it. rhodes left to get his payday (rightfully deserved if you ask me). it will be very interesting to see who indy drafts this weekend. put me down on the list of people who think they're taking an rb day 1.

If you're among those that feel Indy goes RB first round then I can see why you're playing it conservative on Addai.Now think about this for a moment. How many teams have drafted back to back 1st round RB's? How many team did so with a successful 1st rounder on their roster?Now think about this. If they were unwilling to pay Rhodes who was proven back in this system, why would they pay another unproven 1st rounder even more money? Your point doesn't hold up well when you give it alittle thought. Guys, teams can't afford to pay 2 backs like that. That's why Rhodes is gone from Indy. Rhodes isn't even making starter money and they didn't want to pay him. I seriously doubt they will do so with another 1st. They have far more pressing issues than a RB need. Tehy'll address this later in the draft.

i said day 1, not rd 1. big difference.

Ok so no day 1 pick. Now what? You see him as top RB now? Top 7 at least?

 

[Family Matters]

Let me clarify again. I did not say they were forced into doing anything. Go back and read what I said.

Well, that's how I interpreted "out of necessity." Necessity certainly implies a lack of choice.

What they did was very caluculated. They chose this path by design.

We agree here.

And that's why I recognize that Addai is now and will be the feature back. Barring injury and a major offensive collapse, he should put up top 7 RB numbers if not top 5.

Not a logical leap at all. "Indy chose to run a RBBC last year, so this year they won't."

Will there be another back in the mix. Yes, just like every other team in the NFL. Will he likely be a 300 carry back? Yes again. Will he likely have around 50 catches? Yes.

I'll assume that you are talking about Addai as the 300 carry back, here. Again though, none of your logic seems to result in that particular conclusion.

This is all based on what we see happening and his performance last year.

Addai's effectiveness last year is NOT what we are discussing. I fully agree that he was very effective, and was an integral part of the Super Bowl run. He looked great. For about the 5th time, the question up for interpretation and discussion involves his workload. Throughout his entire career, he has split carries in a RBBC, and obviously been effective doing so. The leap from 260ish touches to 350 - 400 is a huge one. Is it that unreasonable to say that Addai just might be more effective with less of a workload? And if not, why hasn't he been fully featured at any point in his playing career?

You can hang your hat on what happened last year (RBBC) but you will miss out on Addai. If this is a matter of you just don't like Addai then just say so.

Again: Disagreeing with you and not liking Addai are two very different things. I think he is a very safe bet to end up in the top 10 - 12 RBs, but very unlikely to ascend into the top five. That is hardly disliking him.

But let's not kid ourselves here. What he did in college has nothing to do with Indy.

You are contradicting yourself. If college has nothing to do with the current situation, then his 1st round status, which you keep bringing up, is also irrelevant. The fact remains that Addai's entire career, both college and professional, has followed the exact same pattern. He has always split carries, and has always been effective doing so. Why would that change?

Do you really think they invested a 1st round pick to use him like they did in school? Do you really think that's how Indy sees this? One has nothing to do with the other.

Yeah, a team would never draft a guy at the end of the first round to be an effective part-time player. Ever hear of Reggie Bush or DeAngelo Williams? Seems to me that they were drafted, higher than Addai, to be part of a RBBC.

And then you're suggesting his performance last year has nothing to do with this? Not sure what to say to you on that. If you really feel that way then I cannot help.

His performance is not up for debate. Again, I agree that he was very effective. [Looked good on 266 touches in 2006 --> will get 350+ touches in 2007] isn't a logical leap to me. At least it isn't as logical as: [split carries in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 --> will split carries in 2007]

As for the evidence points to a continued trend of RBBC, then I have to ask what evidence you're looking at?

See above.

You do realize they released Rhodes don't you?

Obviously they felt that it makes more sense to draft a much less expensive rokkie to fill his role as opposed to what it would have cost to resign him.

They've not replaced him with a FA.

And of course free agency would be the only possible place to find another RB to replace him.

And we're all in agreement that Indy will draft a RB this weekend, just not another 1st/2nd rounder.

For me, it doesn't matter where they draft a RB, really. At some point I think it likely that Indy will find a guy to share the load with Addai.

No one here is saying that Addai doesn't merit a high selection, fantasy-wise. There is just a HUGE difference between getting a guy around the 1st/2nd turn (assuming 10 - 12 teams) and taking him in the top five.

You won't get him around 10-12. He won't be there in most competetive leagues. And you're right, there's a huge difference between getting a guy around 10-12 and top 5. Addai is a top 5-7 RB and you won't find that at 10-12. If you wait until then he'll be long gone (along with every other RB stud) and you will be trying to figure how to level the playing field with what's left. Many think they can overcome that with early WR picks. That doesn't work in most leagues where you have to start 1 or more RB's.The best you can hope for is to get him around 7-8. He might slip that far in some leagues and if you're lucky enough to get him there then you're in great shape.

On the off chance you're in a league where no one sees his value and you can get him at 10-12 then you stand a great chance of winning your league.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

Indy bolstered their O-line day 1. +1 for Addai.

 

[freeannyong]

Indy bolstered their O-line day 1. +1 for Addai.

You do realize that Ugoh might only play if somebody in the O-line gets injured right? O-line isn't even a concern. This pick however is good for dynasty owners as Ugoh is likely to replace Tarik Gleen at LT after this season.

 

[Family Matters]

So let me see if I have this right. Indy drafted no RB's? I wonder if they think Addai is their man?

 

[LBH]

So let me see if I have this right. Indy drafted no RB's? I wonder if they think Addai is their man?

addais dynasty value just got a big boost after this weekends draft

 

[joffer]

what other RBs besides Addai are on the Colts' roster right now?

 

[cscmtp]

where do you guys think D-Will goes in a new startup dynasty?? I'm guessing he'll be a better value than Addai, who I could see going in the top 7 in most drafts...

 

[Routilla]

I don't think it would surprise many people if any at all if Addai finished the season as a top 3-5 RB this year; that alone should say somthing.

It would surprise me if he saw enough touches to make it into the top 3 - 5. This is a guy who split time throughout his entire college career (career high 187 carries), a trend which continued last year with the Colts. During the playoff run, the splits between Addai and Rhodes were 25/13, 18/14, 14/14, and 19/21. Rhodes wasn't one of those guys who was good enough that he just had to be on the field, either. I wouldn't bank on Addai seeing the 350 - 400 touches that he'll need to ascend into the top tier. Not saying that it couldn't happen, but I think it likely that the Colts bring in another RB to take some of the pounding. Addai could easily settle in around the 250 carry neighborhood. I think he is a pretty safe bet to finish in the top 10 - 12, but top-5 seems a bit unlikely to me.

I see your point, however, I think that between carries and receptions that Addai will easily get around 360-380 total touches this season.Remember Addai in split time as a rookie had 226 carries with 40 receptions for a total of 1406 yards and 8 total TDs. I think it is a safe to say that those numbers are all going to go up. I project 290-300 carries and 50-60 receptions. For around 360 total touches and I feel 12-15 Td's is very reachable.I think Addai with 295 carries at 4.5 YPC (last year he averaged 4.8) would give him 1328 rushing yards. Also tack on 55 receptions at 8 yards per reception (last year he averaged 8.1) to give him 440 yards.So I project about 1700 to 1800 yards on offense with 12-15 TD's.To look even deeper he would only need to average 3.75 more rushing attempts per game to go from 226 carries to 286 carries. So I don't think it is out of the question that he could average 3.75 more rushes per game to get him to the 290 carries for the season. And only 1 extra reception a game would get him to 55 receptions.I really think his future is bright.

We might have a better handle on things based on whether the Colts draft a RB on Saturday. The fact that Addai split carries in college, and then split carries last year with a player (Rhodes) who I feel was much less talented, makes me wonder if he will be most effective as part of a RBBC. Obviously, if Indy doesn't move to acquire another RB, then that will be a vote of confidence in Addai.Maybe I'll end up missing out, but until I see him carry the load for a full season, I'll be sceptical of his ability to do so.

We'll see Saturday night if you Addai guys still feel the same as you do now.

yes, us Addai guys still feel the same. Joe will be a top tier RB with gaudy stats as the #1 RB in IND. Lots of crow eating in the cards for those who "knew" IND would draft a RB.

 

[Giggity]

where do you guys think D-Will goes in a new startup dynasty?? I'm guessing he'll be a better value than Addai, who I could see going in the top 7 in most drafts...

God why can't I have people in my league who value DeW even close to a top 10 player.

 

[Routilla]

where do you guys think D-Will goes in a new startup dynasty?? I'm guessing he'll be a better value than Addai, who I could see going in the top 7 in most drafts...

God why can't I have people in my league who value DeW even close to a top 10 player.

Sounds like a league in the Featherweight division.

 

[Giggity]

where do you guys think D-Will goes in a new startup dynasty?? I'm guessing he'll be a better value than Addai, who I could see going in the top 7 in most drafts...

God why can't I have people in my league who value DeW even close to a top 10 player.

Sounds like a league in the Featherweight division.

Dew's average ranking by the FBG staff is 22 overall. Which in terms of a dynasty draft, is worlds away from top 10. Unless you think the FBG staff are mostly full of it.Anyone thinking DeW is close to top 10 in a dynasty draft, is a guppy.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

So, who do us Addai owners (who are extremely happy and smart for drafting him early) draft as the back up RB in Indy???

 

[cscmtp]

where do you guys think D-Will goes in a new startup dynasty?? I'm guessing he'll be a better value than Addai, who I could see going in the top 7 in most drafts...

God why can't I have people in my league who value DeW even close to a top 10 player.

Umm, I never said I put DeAngelo anywhere NEAR the top 10 or even first round for that matter...just simply asked where people thought he'd go...so late 2nd or early 3rd in a 12 teamer according to that average...

 

[zamboni]

So, who do us Addai owners (who are extremely happy and smart for drafting him early) draft as the back up RB in Indy???

I suspect there will still be a free agent signing (e.g., Barlow), but probably no one that is going to be a major threat to Addai's touches. Absent that, I guess Dorsey is the handcuff for now.

 

[switz]

All the Addai naysayers look like fools after this year's draft.

 

[jwb]

You won't get him around 10-12. He won't be there in most competetive leagues. And you're right, there's a huge difference between getting a guy around 10-12 and top 5. Addai is a top 5-7 RB and you won't find that at 10-12.

I got him at 10 in a startup draft held about a month ago. I suspect if we drafted today, I would not get him there.

 

[djcolts]

Dungy interview on Colts.com - this part is the RB situation in Indy:

Q: The Colts enter the rookie mini-camp with DeDe Dorsey and Kenton Keith as the backup running backs. What makes you feel comfortable about those guys? A: With DeDe, I remember (then-Minnesota Vikings Head Coach) Denny Green telling me when he was getting ready to play (quarterback) Daunte Culpepper. He hadn’t actually played him in a game, but Denny had watched him on the scout team. Denny used to run the scout team the same way I do. Denny would say, ‘He’s ready to go.’ He just knew. DeDe’s the same way. Just from having him and being in the huddle with him, questions that he asked and the way he would do things for us on the scout team, I’ve got a lot of confidence in him. I feel like he’s going to be ready to go. Kenton, I don’t know as much about, but (Colts Scout) Cal Murphy – our guy up in Canada – has said, ‘This guy can play.’ Between the three of those guys (second-year veteran Joseph Addai is the starter), I think we’re going to be in pretty good shape. Q: Joseph was asked recently, ‘Can you carry the load?’ He said, ‘Ask me when the year’s over.’ A: Joseph is going to be fine. I think we did it the right way in terms of giving him 200 carries during the course of the year. Maybe he has to pick that up a little bit. He’s going to be ready to go. I don’t think it’s going to be the type of thing where Joseph’s going to go from 14 carries a game to 30. He might go from 14 carries to 18 or 19, then we’ll find 10 carries from some other people. We feel like we can make improvements in-house. That’s one way to do it. Our guys will.

 

[Family Matters]

Dungy interview on Colts.com - this part is the RB situation in Indy:

Q: The Colts enter the rookie mini-camp with DeDe Dorsey and Kenton Keith as the backup running backs. What makes you feel comfortable about those guys?

A: With DeDe, I remember (then-Minnesota Vikings Head Coach) Denny Green telling me when he was getting ready to play (quarterback) Daunte Culpepper. He hadn’t actually played him in a game, but Denny had watched him on the scout team. Denny used to run the scout team the same way I do. Denny would say, ‘He’s ready to go.’ He just knew. DeDe’s the same way. Just from having him and being in the huddle with him, questions that he asked and the way he would do things for us on the scout team, I’ve got a lot of confidence in him. I feel like he’s going to be ready to go. Kenton, I don’t know as much about, but (Colts Scout) Cal Murphy – our guy up in Canada – has said, ‘This guy can play.’ Between the three of those guys (second-year veteran Joseph Addai is the starter), I think we’re going to be in pretty good shape.

Q: Joseph was asked recently, ‘Can you carry the load?’ He said, ‘Ask me when the year’s over.’

A: Joseph is going to be fine. I think we did it the right way in terms of giving him 200 carries during the course of the year. Maybe he has to pick that up a little bit. He’s going to be ready to go. I don’t think it’s going to be the type of thing where Joseph’s going to go from 14 carries a game to 30. He might go from 14 carries to 18 or 19, then we’ll find 10 carries from some other people. We feel like we can make improvements in-house. That’s one way to do it. Our guys will.

Rigtht about where I have him projected:320-1472-12, 50-400-1

That ranks him as RB5 in my projections. I have him ahead of Westbrook but that would change if Westbrook were more healthy. But even at RB6 he right behind RB4. It's close.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Car drafted a good Center also in the draft...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Imagine if you could own both of these RB...