Jackson and Faulk (1 Viewer)

[Weiner Dog]

Rams | Martz: Talks Jackson and Faulk - from www.KFFL.com

Sat, 4 Jun 2005 22:58:46 -0700

Bill Coats, of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, reports St. Louis Rams head coach Mike Martz discussed the team's situation in the backfield, namely RB Steven Jackson starting over RB Marshall Faulk. Based on his comments, there may not be one lead running back all season. "I think it's important for Marshall more than for Steven to have Steven take over. Marshall's role will be very significant. It's not limited. It's what he wants it to be. But it's important for Marshall to get Steven in this role so that he can mentor him and they can kind of feed off each other. It allows us to use Marshall maybe even in a different role, too, out of the backfield. Maybe both of them in the backfield. But the whole idea here is, as soon as we made that decision; it's not an issue throughout the offseason for anybody. Marshall suggested this during the (2004) season as a way of helping Steven, so he's not always looking over his shoulder and makes one mistake and he's coming out (of the game), that kind of thing. He's just ready to do it, and Marshall's ready to have him step into that capacity. And yet, this could be a 50-50 deal throughout the season."

 

[Bouddha]

There ya go. Those who think S Jackson can be a horse in this offense are way off. Faulk will not just disappear, as long as Martz is there. Jackson is drafted way ahead of other RBBCs which makes no sense.

 

[R.White]

This was posted on the Footballguys Blogger yesterday afternoon.

June 5, 2005, 05:36

Rams :: RB

RB M. Faulk's Role Not Limited

Bill Coats, St. Louis Post-Dispatch - [Full Article]

"Marshall's role will be very significant. It's not limited. But it's important for Marshall to get Steven in this role so that he can mentor him and they can kind of feed off each other. It allows us to use Marshall maybe even in a different role, too, out of the backfield. Maybe both of them in the backfield. But the whole idea here is, as soon as we made that decision, it's not an issue throughout the offseason for anybody." This could be a 50-50 deal throughout the season.

RW

 

[bostonfred]

For a guy with four career touchdowns and two career 100 yard rushing games, Steven Jackson sure is getting drafted high. Here's what I said in the overrated players article:

Steven Jackson had two 100 yard games last year. One was against San Francisco, where he carried 26 times for 119 yards against the worst team in the league while Marshall Faulk was out. The other was against Philadelphia, who had already clinched home field throughout the playoffs. He had 19 catches on the season while Faulk had 50, so he'll likely be pulled pretty often on third downs. He's the lead back in a RBBC on a team that had the fifth most pass attempts and fourth fewest rush attempts in the league. I'm stumped as to why he's going in the second round, except that he plays on a team that used to have the best offense in football, and he had a big game on national television during the playoffs.

Overrated running backs

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

For a guy with four career touchdowns and two career 100 yard rushing games, Steven Jackson sure is getting drafted high.  Here's what I said in the overrated players article:

Steven Jackson had two 100 yard games last year. One was against San Francisco, where he carried 26 times for 119 yards against the worst team in the league while Marshall Faulk was out. The other was against Philadelphia, who had already clinched home field throughout the playoffs. He had 19 catches on the season while Faulk had 50, so he'll likely be pulled pretty often on third downs. He's the lead back in a RBBC on a team that had the fifth most pass attempts and fourth fewest rush attempts in the league. I'm stumped as to why he's going in the second round, except that he plays on a team that used to have the best offense in football, and he had a big game on national television during the playoffs.

Overrated running backs

Could be a very good call Fred. Not only does he have to worry about Marshall, but we have to believe that that offensive line is put back together........because last year it was BROKE!So does this mean Marshall made your value list

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

For a guy with four career touchdowns and two career 100 yard rushing games, Steven Jackson sure is getting drafted high. Here's what I said in the overrated players article:

Steven Jackson had two 100 yard games last year. One was against San Francisco, where he carried 26 times for 119 yards against the worst team in the league while Marshall Faulk was out. The other was against Philadelphia, who had already clinched home field throughout the playoffs. He had 19 catches on the season while Faulk had 50, so he'll likely be pulled pretty often on third downs. He's the lead back in a RBBC on a team that had the fifth most pass attempts and fourth fewest rush attempts in the league. I'm stumped as to why he's going in the second round, except that he plays on a team that used to have the best offense in football, and he had a big game on national television during the playoffs.

Overrated running backs

Didn't even know these were posted............great stuff.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Jackson has a hard time getting "tough" yards. Expect to see Faulk in the majoirty of goal line and 3 and short carries.

 

[P Boy]

LOL. It's June & people are taking Martz' word as gospel. I love that. Hell, you can't even trust what Martz says 1 day before a regular season week 7 game.I'll wait & see, thanks. I still see Jackson being capable of being a low #1/high #2 RB in a 12/14 team league with nothing but upside potential - possibly very high upside potential - now that Faulk has such an extraordinary body of work under his belt & Father Time is working so hard against him.

 

[Big Score]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Jackson has a hard time getting "tough" yards.

Expect to see Faulk in the majoirty of goal line and 3 and short carries.

Hmmmm..........10/03 24-14 W at SF

2-2-SF2 34) S.Jackson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

11/14 23-12 W SEA

2-3-SEA16 (7:32) S.Jackson right guard to SEA 4 for 12 yards (K.Hamlin).

1-4-SEA4 (6:55) S.Jackson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

12/27 20-7 W PHI

1-10-PHI13 (10:31) M.Faulk left guard to PHI 7 for 6 yards (P.Grasmanis).

2-4-PHI7 (9:52) S.Jackson right tackle to PHI 5 for 2 yards (P.Grasmanis, D.Jones).

3-2-PHI5 (9:12) S.Jackson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Seems when Martz gave Jackson the opportunity at the Goal Line, he punched it in.

In fact from the play by play above, I see one instance where the RB to be pulled down near the Goal Line was actually Faulk, not Jackson.

 

[bostonfred]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Jackson has a hard time getting "tough" yards.

Expect to see Faulk in the majoirty of goal line and 3 and short carries.

Hmmmm..........10/03 24-14 W at SF

2-2-SF2 34) S.Jackson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

11/14 23-12 W SEA

2-3-SEA16 (7:32) S.Jackson right guard to SEA 4 for 12 yards (K.Hamlin).

1-4-SEA4 (6:55) S.Jackson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

12/27 20-7 W PHI

1-10-PHI13 (10:31) M.Faulk left guard to PHI 7 for 6 yards (P.Grasmanis).

2-4-PHI7 (9:52) S.Jackson right tackle to PHI 5 for 2 yards (P.Grasmanis, D.Jones).

3-2-PHI5 (9:12) S.Jackson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Seems when Martz gave Jackson the opportunity at the Goal Line, he punched it in.

In fact from the play by play above, I see one instance where the RB to be pulled down near the Goal Line was actually Faulk, not Jackson.

The fact that Steven Jackson scored on San Francisco and Seattle's run defenses, then scored against Philly after they'd clinched home field throughout the playoffs, takes some of the luster of that. Yes, Jackson is capable of scoring. And yes, he'll probably have a decent year, put together some good games, and score some TDs. But he's also sharing the ball with a hall of famer on a pass first team. There's no way I take him in the second round.

 

[bostonfred]

So does this mean Marshall made your value list

Nope. I do think he's worth a flyer, but unless one of them gets injured or pushed to the side, I think any week you're forced to start a St. Louis running back this year is a bad one.

 

[Snotbubbles]

With less than 2 yards or less to go for a 1st down or TD here are the numbers:Steven Jackson: 22 rushes for 73 yards; RESULT: 17 first downs, 2 TDsMarshall Faulk: 34 rushes for 55 yards; RESULT: 19 first downs, 2 TDs

 

[P Boy]

With less than 2 yards or less to go for a 1st down or TD here are the numbers:

Steven Jackson: 22 rushes for 73 yards; RESULT: 17 first downs, 2 TDs

Marshall Faulk: 34 rushes for 55 yards; RESULT: 19 first downs, 2 TDs

In other words, Jackson is much more productive in short yardage situations than Faulk - something that was also identified in a study on short yardage situations for RBs done earlier in the week on this board that showed Jackson as being extremely effective in these situations when compared to all other RBs in the NFL.Based upon 2 independent statistical accounts of the evidence, I'd say that St Louis Bob might be a bit mistaken in his claim...

 

[RAPTURE]

Honestly guys, did most of you watch Faulk run the ball last year. It was almost like watching Rice run an 8 yard out pattern. Mike Martz has to respect Faulk for all of what he has accomplished in the Ram's organization. Which means Faulk will see the playing field at times, but don't most backup RB's see some sort of action in gametime situations. Lastly, we are talking about a team who moved up in the draft to get Jackson. That speaks a thousand volumes to me.I think since it is a long offseason people take everything they read and run with it. Calm down folks, Jackson will get his touches and his TD's. RAPTURE

 

[RBM]

Dont buy this at all. Jackson's play will force Martz to keep him on the field. The kids a stud who can do it all, and Faulk looked awful last year. I dont see Martz as a big "loyalty" guy.

 

[RAPTURE]

One last thing for FF purposes - Have you seen Steven Jackson's schedule for this upcoming schedule. It looks very favorable for Jackson and the Rams. In addition to this so-called speculation of Jackson vs Faulk, you can always expect Faulk to miss four games to injury and another couple games to limited gametime action.RAPTURE

 

[joffer]

it might start off 50/50, but I think Jackson's effectivenesss will lead it to end up closer to 70/30. My problem with either of them is it's still Martz, who abandons the run way too easily for my taste.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Jackson has a hard time getting "tough" yards.

Expect to see Faulk in the majoirty of goal line and 3 and short carries.

Well, that's an interesting take considering the following statistics:Faulk had 13 goal-line carries. He manged 6 yards (.46 YPC) and 3 TDs. That was one of the worst if not the worst performance in the league in 2004.

Jackson, had 7 GL looks and got 13 yards (1.86 YPC which is actually excellent in that situation) and scored 3 times.

In short yardage carries (less than 3 yards), Faulk had 39 carries, got 20 first downs and averaged 1.46 YPC.

Jackson had 28 short-yardage carries, had 21 first downs, and ran for a 5.43 average, which is actually quite amazing.

If you want to look at the REALLY short yardage (1 yard to go), Jackson went 13 for 14 (best ration in the league for guy over 10 carries) and Faulk went 15 for 22.

Frankly, I have no idea what games you were watching to have come up with those conclusions. Are you sure you aren't Cleveland Bob or something?

Faulk was one of the best RB ever to play in my book, but he is a shell of his former self and will be mentor and change of pace guy for themand nothing more regardless of coachspeak.

Edit: I should have read the rest of the thread - this is piling on a bit.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Isn't this exactly what I've been saying for 2 months? Ever since Jackson was named the "starter" I've made coutnless references to how Faulk was the "starter" last year, but the term "starter" in STL probably doesn't mean feature back, but rather the guy getting 60% of the carries instead of 40%.And since when is Jackson being drafted in the 2nd round in redrafts? I've seen him mid-3rd to early 4th...

 

[Big Score]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Jackson has a hard time getting "tough" yards.

Expect to see Faulk in the majoirty of goal line and 3 and short carries.

Hmmmm..........10/03 24-14 W at SF

2-2-SF2 34) S.Jackson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

11/14 23-12 W SEA

2-3-SEA16 (7:32) S.Jackson right guard to SEA 4 for 12 yards (K.Hamlin).

1-4-SEA4 (6:55) S.Jackson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

12/27 20-7 W PHI

1-10-PHI13 (10:31) M.Faulk left guard to PHI 7 for 6 yards (P.Grasmanis).

2-4-PHI7 (9:52) S.Jackson right tackle to PHI 5 for 2 yards (P.Grasmanis, D.Jones).

3-2-PHI5 (9:12) S.Jackson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Seems when Martz gave Jackson the opportunity at the Goal Line, he punched it in.

In fact from the play by play above, I see one instance where the RB to be pulled down near the Goal Line was actually Faulk, not Jackson.

The fact that Steven Jackson scored on San Francisco and Seattle's run defenses, then scored against Philly after they'd clinched home field throughout the playoffs, takes some of the luster of that. Yes, Jackson is capable of scoring. And yes, he'll probably have a decent year, put together some good games, and score some TDs. But he's also sharing the ball with a hall of famer on a pass first team. There's no way I take him in the second round.

I think you must've missed the point of the post bostonfred . It was not about the ratio of Jackson - vs - Faulk touches, whether Jackson's a 2nd round pick or not, or even the level of competition Jackson scored against with his Goal Line opportunities.However, it was to show St. Louis Bob's ascertation that Jackson would be pulled at the Goal Line in favor of Faulk, to be far, far, far, from cut and dried.

In fact, if anything, what it did show was that Faulk is the one likely to be pulled at the Goal Line.

Here's some other interesting tid bits from last years Rams play by play.

This one vs 49er's

1-10-SF11 (3:56) M.Faulk right end to SF 5 for 6 yards (D.Smith; A.Plummer).

2-4-SF5 (3:11) M.Faulk right guard to SF 2 for 3 yards (T.Parrish; J.Engelberger).

3-1-SF2 (2:30) M.Faulk up the middle to SF 2 for no gain (J.Ulbrich; D.Stewart).

4-1-SF2 (1:55) J.Goodspeed up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Faulk was unable to Punch it in at the Goal Line and is in fact pulled for Joey freakin' Goodspeed. This against one of the Run D's you just finished saying takes the luster off Jackson's rushing TD against them.

Here's another instance where Faulk gets pulled for Jackson down inside the 10 yard line.

1-10-MIA19 (9:42) M.Faulk up the middle to MIA 9 for 10 yards (Z.Thomas).

1-9-MIA9 (8:59) S.Jackson right end to MIA 1 for 8 yards (E.Moore). PENALTY on SL-S.Tercero, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 9 - No Play

Then after the 10 yard penalty, Bulger throws a pick :X

1-19-MIA19 (8:35) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass intended for T.Holt INTERCEPTED by S.Knight at MIA -3. Touchback.

Here's another Rams play by play from last year involving Faulk and again it's against one of the Run D's you felt took some of the luster off Jackson's Rushing TD's.

3-5-SEA8 (1:16) M.Faulk up the middle to SEA 5 for 3 yards (C.Woodard).

4-2-SEA5 30) J.Wilkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Massey, Holder-C.Chandler.

I only looked through the complete play by plays for about half the season and did not post Faulk's Goal Line rush stats vs N.E. or Buffalo's Run D's (obviously two of the tougher Run D's from last year)

What I did want to look at, was how Faulk & Jackson did against the same D's when in Goal to Go situations.

In those like situations, Jackson was able to punch it in, while Faulk was not.

The point of my post was to examine the validity of St. Louis Bob's ascertation that Jackson would be pulled at the Goal Line for Faulk, thus cutting Jackson's value even more, than the dreaded RBBC already does.

While I'm sure Faulk will get a Goal Line TD or two, after looking at the situations from last year and the results, I don't think there is any need to worry that Faulk becomes the Rams bona fide Goal Line Back ala Leroy Hoard (Vikings) or Marcus Allen (Chiefs).

EDITED: For spelling

 

[nathanbalboa]

Keep this talk going boys. I'm going to win a lot of redraft leagues with him as my number 2 back next year. This guy's going to be a stud as long as he stays healthy.Faulk is reaching the Emmitt Smith/Cardinals Era of his career. He's not a danger to Jackson, Martz is just giving some respect to a player who is a legend in St. Louis.A healthy Jackson should have no problem pulling in these numbers: 1150-8, 35-300-2 (and that's a safe estimate).

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Keep this talk going boys. I'm going to win a lot of redraft leagues with him as my number 2 back next year. This guy's going to be a stud as long as he stays healthy.

Faulk is reaching the Emmitt Smith/Cardinals Era of his career. He's not a danger to Jackson, Martz is just giving some respect to a player who is a legend in St. Louis.

A healthy Jackson should have no problem pulling in these numbers: 1150-8, 35-300-2 (and that's a safe estimate).

You can have him. There is nothing to show me he can be a stud.-Playing for a coordinator that rarely runs

-Splitting carries

-Is not the best receiver out of the backfield on the team.

When you have big question marks like that, you are not a stud. Have fun with him though. I'll take a much better option.

 

[David Yudkin]

Keep this talk going boys. I'm going to win a lot of redraft leagues with him as my number 2 back next year. This guy's going to be a stud as long as he stays healthy.

Faulk is reaching the Emmitt Smith/Cardinals Era of his career. He's not a danger to Jackson, Martz is just giving some respect to a player who is a legend in St. Louis.

A healthy Jackson should have no problem pulling in these numbers: 1150-8, 35-300-2 (and that's a safe estimate).

For anyone that cares . . .The Rams ranked 30th in rushing attempts and 26th in rushing yards last year and had only 11 rushing TDs.

The 2003 Rams ranked 28th in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards.

The 2002 Rams ranked 32nd in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards in 2002 and again had just 11 rushing TDs.

That's 3 years in a row where the Rams essentially abandoned the run or did not produce when they did run.

Factor in that Faulk is not done, and those projected great things from Jackson this year might want to reconsider unless the Rams show signs of returning to establishing and utilizing the ground game.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Keep this talk going boys. I'm going to win a lot of redraft leagues with him as my number 2 back next year. This guy's going to be a stud as long as he stays healthy.

Faulk is reaching the Emmitt Smith/Cardinals Era of his career. He's not a danger to Jackson, Martz is just giving some respect to a player who is a legend in St. Louis.

A healthy Jackson should have no problem pulling in these numbers: 1150-8, 35-300-2 (and that's a safe estimate).

For anyone that cares . . .The Rams ranked 30th in rushing attempts and 26th in rushing yards last year and had only 11 rushing TDs.

The 2003 Rams ranked 28th in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards.

The 2002 Rams ranked 32nd in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards in 2002 and again had just 11 rushing TDs.

That's 3 years in a row where the Rams essentially abandoned the run or did not produce when they did run.

Factor in that Faulk is not done, and those projected great things from Jackson this year might want to reconsider unless the Rams show signs of returning to establishing and utilizing the ground game.

...not to mention, the defense of the Rams has not improved since last year. Fisher has since been signed by the Hawks, and the signing of Claiborne and Coakley can hardly be viewed as a major overhaul.Good defensive teams run the ball. The Rams are not a good defensive team.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Honestly guys, did most of you watch Faulk run the ball last year. It was almost like watching Rice run an 8 yard out pattern.

Mike Martz has to respect Faulk for all of what he has accomplished in the Ram's organization. Which means Faulk will see the playing field at times, but don't most backup RB's see some sort of action in gametime situations. Lastly, we are talking about a team who moved up in the draft to get Jackson. That speaks a thousand volumes to me.

I think since it is a long offseason people take everything they read and run with it. Calm down folks, Jackson will get his touches and his TD's.

RAPTURE

I watched Faulk in the playoffs last year, and now that I think about it, he looked a lot better than Jackson did.

 

[Buckna]

Other things to consider...The Rams have rushed the ball an average of 387 times since Martz has been around with RB's getting 85.6% of the carries. If we assume they continue to rush as they have (with no improvement to their defense, I don't see why not) that leaves about 330 carries for Faulk and Jackson to split. In his career with the Rams, Marshall has NEVER rushed more than 260 times.If Marshall is a true backup: M.Faulk = 80 carries, S. Jackson = 250If Marshall gets 40% of the carries: M. Faulk = 132 carries, S. Jackson = 198 (basically swaps the rushing stats from last year)250 carries is the UPSIDE for Jackson at 4.75 ypc would = 1,188 rushing200 carries which seems the most likely scenario at 4.75ypc = 950 rushingFaulk got 50 receptions last year compared to Jackson's 19, so with Faulk still the better receiver of the two, I can't see Jackson adding more than 30 rec * 10ypr = 300 yards.Upside stats = 1,200 rushing, 30rec/300 receiving, maybe 8 touchdowns = 198 points or RB#12 last yearMost likey = 950, 300 receiving, 8 touchdowns = 173 points or RB#21 last yearSo if you think Faulk as done, your upside is RB12. Considering Jackson's ADP is RB 16 right now, the payoff is not worth the price in my eyes to bet that Faulk is completely done.

 

[Horses Mouth]

I traded S Jackson FOR Ahman late last year for this very reason in my keep 3 league. i think Jackson's value will be tough to gauge with Faulk around.

 

[bostonfred]

In fact, if anything, what it did show was that Faulk is the one likely to be pulled at the Goal Line.

Here's some other interesting tid bits from last years Rams play by play.

This one vs 49er's

1-10-SF11 (3:56) M.Faulk right end to SF 5 for 6 yards (D.Smith; A.Plummer).

2-4-SF5 (3:11) M.Faulk right guard to SF 2 for 3 yards (T.Parrish; J.Engelberger).

3-1-SF2 (2:30) M.Faulk up the middle to SF 2 for no gain (J.Ulbrich; D.Stewart).

4-1-SF2 (1:55) J.Goodspeed up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

1-10-MIA19 (9:42) M.Faulk up the middle to MIA 9 for 10 yards (Z.Thomas).

1-9-MIA9 (8:59) S.Jackson right end to MIA 1 for 8 yards (E.Moore). PENALTY on SL-S.Tercero, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 9 - No Play

Then after the 10 yard penalty, Bulger throws a pick :X

Here's another Rams play by play from last year involving Faulk and again it's against one of the Run D's you felt took some of the luster off Jackson's Rushing TD's.

3-5-SEA8 (1:16) M.Faulk up the middle to SEA 5 for 3 yards (C.Woodard).

4-2-SEA5 30) J.Wilkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Massey, Holder-C.Chandler.

Look at each of the cases you posted- Faulk runs for 9 yards on three carries from the 11. Faulk runs for 10 yards inside the 20, then Jackson comes in and runs for a holding assisted eight. Faulk got stopped for three on a run on third and five. None of those are really damning of Faulk's abilities. Here's what we know about how good Jackson is inside the 10, aside from the fact he scored just four touchdowns last year.

Week 1 against Arizona, Jackson ran twice on 1st and goal from the four, gaining 2 and 0 yards, respectively.

Week 4 against San Francisco, Jackson ran three times, for 6, -1 and 2 yards respectively, gaining the TD.

Week 6 against Tampa, Jackson ran once on 2nd and goal from the 3, and got 1 yard. Faulk ended up getting the next two carries and ran it in.

Week 10 against Seattle, Jackson ran once on 1st and goal from the 4 and scored. He then ran once on 2nd a 6 from the 9 and got 1 yard. Faulk got the next carry and took it for three on third and five.

Week 13 against San Francisco, Jackson ran twice on first and goal from the 9, rushing for 1 and 2 yards, respectively. Faulk was out during this game.

Week 16, against Philly, Jackson ran for 2 yards on 2nd and four, then ran for five on third and two and scored. He then ran for 1 yard on first and goal from the 8. This was against a Philly team that had already clinched home field.

Forgetting the competition for a minute, with 13 carries inside the ten, Jackson got three TDs. Faulk scored on 4 of 16 compared with Jackson's 3 of 13, and Faulk did it against tougher defenses (Atlanta, Tampa, Buffalo and New England). So they're fairly comparable.

Now getting back to what that means for Jackson's stats this year, and why I think he's overrated:

St. Louis rushed 35 times from inside the ten last year. Let's give three quarters of those to Jackson, and assume he scores at the same clip, so we're looking at about 6 short yardage TDs. Let's also give Jackson 200 carries at an unheard of clip of 5 yards per carry, and give him a couple long TDs in there. That would give him about 1000 yards, another 250 in receptions, and 8 TDs. That'd be a phenomenal year for a RBBC back, and good for 17th among RBs last year.

But the thing is, that seems pretty close to his ceiling. How much more do you expect from him? Do you expect St. Louis to run more? Give more than 3/4 of their goal line carries to Jackson? Do you expect Jackson to get more than 200 carries? More than 250 receiving yards? More than 5 yards per carry? Because all those seem like pretty optimistic projections for him to me.

So even if he achieves his upside, you're still looking at a guy who'd have to have a pretty good year to be RB17. If he misses any time, if he fails to keep up his 5 yards per carry pace, if he turns out to have benefitted from having fresh legs, or playing against defenses that had nothing to play for at the end of the season (50 for 267 against SF and Philly in weeks 13 and 16), if Martz decides to go with Faulk for a while or just forgets about the run for a game or two, then he doesn't even achieve RB17. If Faulk misses a significant amount of time, Jackson becomes a much better pickup, but do you want to bank your season on Faulk specifically missing games in the fantasy playoffs?

 

[Tau837]

Now getting back to what that means for Jackson's stats this year, and why I think he's overrated:

St. Louis rushed 35 times from inside the ten last year. Let's give three quarters of those to Jackson, and assume he scores at the same clip, so we're looking at about 6 short yardage TDs. Let's also give Jackson 200 carries at an unheard of clip of 5 yards per carry, and give him a couple long TDs in there. That would give him about 1000 yards, another 250 in receptions, and 8 TDs. That'd be a phenomenal year for a RBBC back, and good for 17th among RBs last year.

But the thing is, that seems pretty close to his ceiling. How much more do you expect from him? Do you expect St. Louis to run more? Give more than 3/4 of their goal line carries to Jackson? Do you expect Jackson to get more than 200 carries? More than 250 receiving yards? More than 5 yards per carry? Because all those seem like pretty optimistic projections for him to me.

So even if he achieves his upside, you're still looking at a guy who'd have to have a pretty good year to be RB17. If he misses any time, if he fails to keep up his 5 yards per carry pace, if he turns out to have benefitted from having fresh legs, or playing against defenses that had nothing to play for at the end of the season (50 for 267 against SF and Philly in weeks 13 and 16), if Martz decides to go with Faulk for a while or just forgets about the run for a game or two, then he doesn't even achieve RB17. If Faulk misses a significant amount of time, Jackson becomes a much better pickup, but do you want to bank your season on Faulk specifically missing games in the fantasy playoffs?

EDIT to cut down to the part I really liked.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Other things to consider...

The Rams have rushed the ball an average of 387 times since Martz has been around with RB's getting 85.6% of the carries. If we assume they continue to rush as they have (with no improvement to their defense, I don't see why not) that leaves about 330 carries for Faulk and Jackson to split. In his career with the Rams, Marshall has NEVER rushed more than 260 times.

If Marshall is a true backup: M.Faulk = 80 carries, S. Jackson = 250

If Marshall gets 40% of the carries: M. Faulk = 132 carries, S. Jackson = 198 (basically swaps the rushing stats from last year)

250 carries is the UPSIDE for Jackson at 4.75 ypc would = 1,188 rushing

200 carries which seems the most likely scenario at 4.75ypc = 950 rushing

Faulk got 50 receptions last year compared to Jackson's 19, so with Faulk still the better receiver of the two, I can't see Jackson adding more than 30 rec * 10ypr = 300 yards.

Upside stats = 1,200 rushing, 30rec/300 receiving, maybe 8 touchdowns = 198 points or RB#12 last year

Most likey = 950, 300 receiving, 8 touchdowns = 173 points or RB#21 last year

So if you think Faulk as done, your upside is RB12. Considering Jackson's ADP is RB 16 right now, the payoff is not worth the price in my eyes to bet that Faulk is completely done.

Bingo!

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Other things to consider...

The Rams have rushed the ball an average of 387 times since Martz has been around with RB's getting 85.6% of the carries. If we assume they continue to rush as they have (with no improvement to their defense, I don't see why not) that leaves about 330 carries for Faulk and Jackson to split. In his career with the Rams, Marshall has NEVER rushed more than 260 times.

If Marshall is a true backup: M.Faulk = 80 carries, S. Jackson = 250

If Marshall gets 40% of the carries: M. Faulk = 132 carries, S. Jackson = 198 (basically swaps the rushing stats from last year)

250 carries is the UPSIDE for Jackson at 4.75 ypc would = 1,188 rushing

200 carries which seems the most likely scenario at 4.75ypc = 950 rushing

Faulk got 50 receptions last year compared to Jackson's 19, so with Faulk still the better receiver of the two, I can't see Jackson adding more than 30 rec * 10ypr = 300 yards.

Upside stats = 1,200 rushing, 30rec/300 receiving, maybe 8 touchdowns = 198 points or RB#12 last year

Most likey = 950, 300 receiving, 8 touchdowns = 173 points or RB#21 last year

So if you think Faulk as done, your upside is RB12. Considering Jackson's ADP is RB 16 right now, the payoff is not worth the price in my eyes to bet that Faulk is completely done.

Bingo!

Shush!!! Let this thread die and never bring it up again. There are so many people who believe Jackson is top 10 material for sure, so why don't we let them hang themselves and scoop up the guys they pass up for Top 10 material in Jackson.

 

[Big Score]

In fact, if anything, what it did show was that Faulk is the one likely to be pulled at the Goal Line.

Here's some other interesting tid bits from last years Rams play by play.

This one vs 49er's

1-10-SF11 (3:56) M.Faulk right end to SF 5 for 6 yards (D.Smith; A.Plummer).

2-4-SF5 (3:11) M.Faulk right guard to SF 2 for 3 yards (T.Parrish; J.Engelberger).

3-1-SF2 (2:30) M.Faulk up the middle to SF 2 for no gain (J.Ulbrich; D.Stewart).

4-1-SF2 (1:55) J.Goodspeed up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 

1-10-MIA19 (9:42) M.Faulk up the middle to MIA 9 for 10 yards (Z.Thomas).

1-9-MIA9 (8:59) S.Jackson right end to MIA 1 for 8 yards (E.Moore). PENALTY on SL-S.Tercero, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 9 - No Play

Then after the 10 yard penalty, Bulger throws a pick :X

Here's another Rams play by play from last year involving Faulk and again it's against one of the Run D's you felt took some of the luster off Jackson's Rushing TD's.

3-5-SEA8 (1:16) M.Faulk up the middle to SEA 5 for 3 yards (C.Woodard).

4-2-SEA5 30) J.Wilkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Massey, Holder-C.Chandler.

Look at each of the cases you posted- Faulk runs for 9 yards on three carries from the 11. Faulk runs for 10 yards inside the 20, then Jackson comes in and runs for a holding assisted eight. Faulk got stopped for three on a run on third and five. None of those are really damning of Faulk's abilities. Here's what we know about how good Jackson is inside the 10, aside from the fact he scored just four touchdowns last year.

Week 1 against Arizona, Jackson ran twice on 1st and goal from the four, gaining 2 and 0 yards, respectively.

Week 4 against San Francisco, Jackson ran three times, for 6, -1 and 2 yards respectively, gaining the TD.

Week 6 against Tampa, Jackson ran once on 2nd and goal from the 3, and got 1 yard. Faulk ended up getting the next two carries and ran it in.

Week 10 against Seattle, Jackson ran once on 1st and goal from the 4 and scored. He then ran once on 2nd a 6 from the 9 and got 1 yard. Faulk got the next carry and took it for three on third and five.

Week 13 against San Francisco, Jackson ran twice on first and goal from the 9, rushing for 1 and 2 yards, respectively. Faulk was out during this game.

Week 16, against Philly, Jackson ran for 2 yards on 2nd and four, then ran for five on third and two and scored. He then ran for 1 yard on first and goal from the 8. This was against a Philly team that had already clinched home field.

Forgetting the competition for a minute, with 13 carries inside the ten, Jackson got three TDs. Faulk scored on 4 of 16 compared with Jackson's 3 of 13, and Faulk did it against tougher defenses (Atlanta, Tampa, Buffalo and New England). So they're fairly comparable.

Now getting back to what that means for Jackson's stats this year, and why I think he's overrated:

St. Louis rushed 35 times from inside the ten last year. Let's give three quarters of those to Jackson, and assume he scores at the same clip, so we're looking at about 6 short yardage TDs. Let's also give Jackson 200 carries at an unheard of clip of 5 yards per carry, and give him a couple long TDs in there. That would give him about 1000 yards, another 250 in receptions, and 8 TDs. That'd be a phenomenal year for a RBBC back, and good for 17th among RBs last year.

But the thing is, that seems pretty close to his ceiling. How much more do you expect from him? Do you expect St. Louis to run more? Give more than 3/4 of their goal line carries to Jackson? Do you expect Jackson to get more than 200 carries? More than 250 receiving yards? More than 5 yards per carry? Because all those seem like pretty optimistic projections for him to me.

So even if he achieves his upside, you're still looking at a guy who'd have to have a pretty good year to be RB17. If he misses any time, if he fails to keep up his 5 yards per carry pace, if he turns out to have benefitted from having fresh legs, or playing against defenses that had nothing to play for at the end of the season (50 for 267 against SF and Philly in weeks 13 and 16), if Martz decides to go with Faulk for a while or just forgets about the run for a game or two, then he doesn't even achieve RB17. If Faulk misses a significant amount of time, Jackson becomes a much better pickup, but do you want to bank your season on Faulk specifically missing games in the fantasy playoffs?

I'm not sure how or why, but yet once again, you've still managed to completely miss the point of my thread bostonfred. Perhaps you'll understand what my post was actually about, if I specifically draw your attention to the last couple of paragrahs of the thread you quoted me from, but for some reason, inexplicably edited out.

The point of my post was to examine the validity of St. Louis Bob's ascertation that Jackson would be pulled at the Goal Line for Faulk, thus cutting Jackson's value even more, than the dreaded RBBC already does.

While I'm sure Faulk will get a Goal Line TD or two, after looking at the situations from last year and the results, I don't think there is any need to worry that Faulk becomes the Rams bona fide Goal Line Back ala Leroy Hoard (Vikings) or Marcus Allen (Chiefs).

 

[bostonfred]

Thanks Big Score, I understood the point of your post. Faulk had more "goal line carries" than Jackson last year - at least if defined as carries inside the ten. And he did marginally better in them, scoring more TDs than Jackson and at a hgher rate. The first half of the post you quoted actually lists those carries if you're interested. The second half of the post you quoted then talks about what happens if that changes this year. Even if Jackson gets 3/4 of those carries, which is not a given, I don't think it will make him worth his pick. I know you're not arguing that. I would have started a new post about it if I'd known it would upset you. Thanks again for clarifying though.

 

[Family Matters]

For a guy with four career touchdowns and two career 100 yard rushing games, Steven Jackson sure is getting drafted high. Here's what I said in the overrated players article:

Steven Jackson had two 100 yard games last year. One was against San Francisco, where he carried 26 times for 119 yards against the worst team in the league while Marshall Faulk was out. The other was against Philadelphia, who had already clinched home field throughout the playoffs. He had 19 catches on the season while Faulk had 50, so he'll likely be pulled pretty often on third downs. He's the lead back in a RBBC on a team that had the fifth most pass attempts and fourth fewest rush attempts in the league. I'm stumped as to why he's going in the second round, except that he plays on a team that used to have the best offense in football, and he had a big game on national television during the playoffs.

Overrated running backs

Props to BF. I think you saw this better than I. Now, if Faulk continues to have injury problems, and that is certainly possible, then Jackson's value rises nicely.

 

[Frank Black]

At a minimum, it is hard to imagine Faulk not "stealing" a significant number of TDs from Jackson, considering Faulk's red zone history.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Faulk had more "goal line carries" than Jackson last year - at least if defined as carries inside the ten. And he did marginally better in them, scoring more TDs than Jackson and at a hgher rate.

Umm, no he didn't. Jackson was better by a HUGE margin on the goal line and on all short-yardage situations. You may want to look at the numbers again.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

At a minimum, it is hard to imagine Faulk not "stealing" a significant number of TDs from Jackson, considering Faulk's red zone history.

The key word in that sentence is history. Faulk is no longer a viable goal line threat. He was absolutely dreadful in that capacity in 2004.People, there are REASONS Jackson was named the starter over one of the best multi-purpose RBs of all time.

The first is that Jackson is a very good RB. The second is that Faulk is no longer anything near the back he once was. His knees are shot. It's really that simple.

In the 2nd half of the season, Faulk had 7 goal-line carries:

Here are the yards:

1, -4, -1, 0, -2, 1, 1

No touchdowns.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

At a minimum, it is hard to imagine Faulk not "stealing" a significant number of TDs from Jackson, considering Faulk's red zone history.

The key word in that sentence is history. Faulk is no longer a viable goal line threat. He was absolutely dreadful in that capacity in 2004.People, there are REASONS Jackson was named the starter over one of the best multi-purpose RBs of all time.

The first is that Jackson is a very good RB. The second is that Faulk is no longer anything near the back he once was. His knees are shot. It's really that simple.

In the 2nd half of the season, Faulk had 7 goal-line carries:

Here are the yards:

1, -4, -1, 0, -2, 1, 1

No touchdowns.

Take Jackson then, but you will get no value out of his ADP.GL carries or not, Jackson is splitting carries with a team that ranks in the bottom 5 in rushing attempts.

 

[Double Agent]

People, there are REASONS Jackson was named the starter over one of the best multi-purpose RBs of all time.

The first is that Jackson is a very good RB. The second is that Faulk is no longer anything near the back he once was. His knees are shot. It's really that simple.

Watched Faulk this morning on NFL Total Access. He said he went to Martz and told him that it would probably be a good idea to give Jackson the lion's share of the carries because he(Faulk) wouldn't last more than this season taking the brunt of the running game abuse. He felt he, Jackson and the offense would all be better off if he were utilized in a greater variety of ways. He indicated that he felt healthy coming into the season for the first time in 3 years and wanted to stay that way. Take that as you will for this season but it is certain that Jackson is a great keeper prospect.

 

[RBM]

Bottom line, its June and this means nothing. Lets talk in mid-August about how carries will be distrubuted. What we do now right now, is that Jackson looks like he has the makings of being a stud back, and Faulk is on the far downside of his illustrious career. As long as Jackson is healthy and starting, Im almost positive that he will perform at a level that will make it next to impossible to put him in a commitee scenario.

 

[Family Matters]

People, there are REASONS Jackson was named the starter over one of the best multi-purpose RBs of all time.

The first is that Jackson is a very good RB.  The second is that Faulk is no longer anything near the back he once was.  His knees are shot.  It's really that simple.

Watched Faulk this morning on NFL Total Access. He said he went to Martz and told him that it would probably be a good idea to give Jackson the lion's share of the carries because he(Faulk) wouldn't last more than this season taking the brunt of the running game abuse. He felt he, Jackson and the offense would all be better off if he were utilized in a greater variety of ways. He indicated that he felt healthy coming into the season for the first time in 3 years and wanted to stay that way. Take that as you will for this season but it is certain that Jackson is a great keeper prospect.

This is good info and thanks for posting. Last year, Faulk was given the option to pull himself out and let Jackson in. He did so frequently. He knows he can't go like he did. Utilizing him in spot duty is probably the best way to prolong his career and get some effective touches.After reading this I feel better about Jackson. In fact I could see 275 carries and 25 receptions.

 

[bostonfred]

Faulk had more "goal line carries" than Jackson last year - at least if defined as carries inside the ten.  And he did marginally better in them, scoring more TDs than Jackson and at a hgher rate.

Umm, no he didn't. Jackson was better by a HUGE margin on the goal line and on all short-yardage situations. You may want to look at the numbers again.

Faulk's play by playJackson's play by play

Week one, Jackson rushes twice inside the ten for two yards, no scores.

Week two, Jackson rushes once inside the ten for one yard, no scores.

Week four, Jackson rushes three times inside the ten for seven yards and a TD.

Week six, Jackson rushes once inside the ten for one yard, no scores

Week ten, Jackson rushes twice inside the ten for five yards and a TD.

Week thirteen, Jackson rushes twice inside the ten for three yards, no scores.

Week sixteen, Jackson rushes three times for eight yards and a TD.

14 plays, 27 yards, 3 TDs.

Week two, Faulk rushed once inside the ten for one yard and a TD.

Week three, Faulk rushed once inside the ten for three yards and a TD.

Week four, Faulk rushed twice inside the ten for three yards, no scores.

Week six, Faulk rushed three times inside the ten for four yards and a TD.

Week nine, Faulk rushed twice inside the ten for -3 yards against New England. Jackson did not play.

Week ten, Faulk rushed once inside the ten for three yards

Week eleven, Faulk rushed four times inside the ten for -2 yards against Buffalo. Jackson did not play.

Week twelve, Faulk had two plays inside the ten for nine yards and a TD.

Week sixteen, Faulk rushed once inside the ten for -3 yards.

Week seventeen, Faulk rushed once inside the ten for three yards.

18 plays, 18 yards, 4 TDs. More TDs than Jackson, at a marginally higher rate, just like I said.

By the way, if you subtract out the six plays for -5 yards against New England and Buffalo, who Jackson didn't play against, you get

12 plays, 23 yards, 4 TDs.

Which is about the same yards per play, and more TDs than Jackson against the same caliber defenses.

 

[bostonfred]

At a minimum, it is hard to imagine Faulk not "stealing" a significant number of TDs from Jackson, considering Faulk's red zone history.

The key word in that sentence is history. Faulk is no longer a viable goal line threat. He was absolutely dreadful in that capacity in 2004.People, there are REASONS Jackson was named the starter over one of the best multi-purpose RBs of all time.

The first is that Jackson is a very good RB. The second is that Faulk is no longer anything near the back he once was. His knees are shot. It's really that simple.

In the 2nd half of the season, Faulk had 7 goal-line carries:

Here are the yards:

1, -4, -1, 0, -2, 1, 1

No touchdowns.

You neglected to mention that six of those seven carries came against New England and Buffalo, the #2 and #4 scoring defenses in the league. Steven Jackson didn't play against either one, but he did get to play a bunch of soft Ds in the second half. Hard to say who's better.

 

[Noahs Troopers]

I'll be avoiding Ram RBs this year.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

After reading this I feel better about Jackson. In fact I could see 275 carries and 25 receptions.

Rams Rushing....2004: 352 attempts for RBs

2003: 365 attempts for RBs

Lets say the Rams run on average of the last two seasons...359 attempts.

275 carries for Jackson is 77% of the RB carries.

To put into perspective, here are some of last years %s for the RB carries on each team.

James had 334/392 = 85%

Alexander had 353/430 = 82%

Martin had 371/470 = 79%

Portis had 343/436 = 78%

McAllister had 269/342 = 78%

Tomlinson had 339/440 = 77%

Green had 259/409 = 63%

Now, saying Jackson having 275 carries is on line for a feature back, so do you think Faulk is going to go from 195 carries last year to ~65 carries (18%) this year and simply be a backup?

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Faulk had more "goal line carries" than Jackson last year - at least if defined as carries inside the ten.  And he did marginally better in them, scoring more TDs than Jackson and at a hgher rate.

Umm, no he didn't. Jackson was better by a HUGE margin on the goal line and on all short-yardage situations. You may want to look at the numbers again.

Faulk's play by playJackson's play by play

Week one, Jackson rushes twice inside the ten for two yards, no scores.

Week two, Jackson rushes once inside the ten for one yard, no scores.

Week four, Jackson rushes three times inside the ten for seven yards and a TD.

Week six, Jackson rushes once inside the ten for one yard, no scores

Week ten, Jackson rushes twice inside the ten for five yards and a TD.

Week thirteen, Jackson rushes twice inside the ten for three yards, no scores.

Week sixteen, Jackson rushes three times for eight yards and a TD.

14 plays, 27 yards, 3 TDs.

Week two, Faulk rushed once inside the ten for one yard and a TD.

Week three, Faulk rushed once inside the ten for three yards and a TD.

Week four, Faulk rushed twice inside the ten for three yards, no scores.

Week six, Faulk rushed three times inside the ten for four yards and a TD.

Week nine, Faulk rushed twice inside the ten for -3 yards against New England. Jackson did not play.

Week ten, Faulk rushed once inside the ten for three yards

Week eleven, Faulk rushed four times inside the ten for -2 yards against Buffalo. Jackson did not play.

Week twelve, Faulk had two plays inside the ten for nine yards and a TD.

Week sixteen, Faulk rushed once inside the ten for -3 yards.

Week seventeen, Faulk rushed once inside the ten for three yards.

18 plays, 18 yards, 4 TDs. More TDs than Jackson, at a marginally higher rate, just like I said.

By the way, if you subtract out the six plays for -5 yards against New England and Buffalo, who Jackson didn't play against, you get

12 plays, 23 yards, 4 TDs.

Which is about the same yards per play, and more TDs than Jackson against the same caliber defenses.

Yeah, that's how I like to look at stats: by subtracting the worst six carries (a full thrid) for one back and then comparing him to another and calling them equal.Those are some AMAZINGLY twisted statistics. First of all, I would not call anything past the 5 yard line a "goal-line" carry. 2nd, we are talking about rushes. Faulk had three rushing TDs, not four. Throwing his token receiving TD in there is very cheesey. The real statistics are posted much further up in the thread, and you have to twist them to an extreme degree like this to make them look favorable to Faulk.

 

[bostonfred]

Yeah, that's how I like to look at stats: by subtracting the worst six carries (a full thrid) for one back and then comparing him to another and calling them equal.

Those are some AMAZINGLY twisted statistics.  First of all, I would not call anything past the 5 yard line a "goal-line" carry.  2nd, we are talking about rushes.  Faulk had three rushing TDs, not four.  Throwing his token receiving TD in there is very cheesey.  The real statistics are posted much further up in the thread, and you have to twist them to an extreme degree like this to make them look favorable to Faulk.

Faulk had his two worst games from a goal line rushing perspective against the only two top 4 defenses they played all season. I didn't just subtract it and call them equal, but I think it's worth mentioning, so I mentioned it. I'm sorry if it contradicts your post where you blamed Faulk's second half numbers on his knee neglected to mention that six of his seven "goal line carries" in the second half came against New England and Buffalo. Jackson had 0 receptions inside the ten. Faulk's receiving TD is very relevant, and a reason he stays on the field there. Jackson's lack of receiving TDs is equally relevant. You might find it cheesy in a discussion of "fantasy goal line rushing", but in "fantasy football", it turns out you get credit for receiving TDs.

I specifically stated plays inside the ten; I never said anything about rushes inside the 5. I'd be happy to see your numbers. But please don't disagree with a post I made, quote me saying "inside the ten", and then tell me it has to be inside the 5.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I specifically stated plays inside the ten; I never said anything about rushes inside the 5. I'd be happy to see your numbers. But please don't disagree with a post I made, quote me saying "inside the ten", and then tell me it has to be inside the 5.

Inside the 5 (or sometimes 3) = goal line. Inside the 10 = ???We were all talking about rushes, then all of the sudden Faulk finds an "extra" TD. But the funny thing is that you don't even count the the target as an "attempt" despite giving him the benefit of the "free" TD.

To see the real, complete stats, just look earlier in the thread. It isn't close. Despite your excuses for him, the guy went 3 for 13 inside the 5 with a ridiculously low average, with all three successes coming early in the season. 3 for 13. 6 yards. Among guys with 10+ carries, he had the WORST ratio in the league. It take a pretty impressive spin to make that look good.

 

[David Yudkin]

After reading this I feel better about Jackson. In fact I could see 275 carries and 25 receptions.

As I mentioned before, the Rams don't run enough--and unless they change that, I suspect Jackson's stat line will suffer.The Rams had 352, 366, and 298 RB rushing attempts the past few seasons. I have a hard time envisioning Faulk not geting 8-10 carries per game--especially if he is somewhat healthy. That would get Faulk 100-120 carries. The "other" RBs on the squad have been getting at least 25 carries. IMO, that would put Jackson at around 200 carries UNLESS THE TEAM STARTS RUNNING MORE.

If Faulk went to pure backup status (say 3-4 carries a game) and only had 40-50 carries on the season (and maybe similar reception numbers), I doubt he would have come back and likely would have retired.

I suppose Faulk has a decent chance of aggravating his knees and not playing, but as I see it this will be a RBBC situation in that Jackson will probably not get the workload that the top RBs get on other teams.

 

[P Boy]

Take Jackson then, but you will get no value out of his ADP.

By that argument, you should never draft Tomlinson, since he can never outperform his draft position.Geez, guys, ADP value is a tool that you can use, but you have to be a bit realistic about putting actual FF points on the board at some time during the selection process.