Okay, who freakin' cares about carries? I posted earlier in this season that the Rams were a bottom feeder when it comes to RB carries.
However, I thought we were talking about FF here. Isn't it a RB's FF performance that we are trying to argue, or have we made the common mistake of confusing actual NFL stats with FF performance?
By our leagues FF points, the main STL RBs posted the following rankings at the RB position:
2004
Faulk #24
Jackson #33
2003
Faulk #17
Harris #41
2002
Faulk #14
Gordon #48
Johnson, L #49
Now that may not seem great, but when you add the points of the top FF RBs together, you get that Rams' top RBs earned more FF points than solo top 10 RBs like Portis (#8) & R Johnson (#10) in 2004; Alexander (#7), Taylor (#8), & R Williams (#9) in 2003; and Tomlinson (#2), Williams (#3), McAllister (#4), & Alexander (#5).
That means that the FF pts are available there for a Rams' RB to jump into the top 10 if they became the main focus of the running game (like Faulk was before 2002). With Jackson showing some traits of being a true monster RB & Faulk's age & carries catching up with him in a very fast way, if Jackson does get the lion's share of the work like some of us are expecting, there is no reason why he can't perform like a bottom #1/top #2 RB - with the upside to jump into the top 5-6 RBs if Faulk really is regressing as quickly as it appeared last year.
No one is arguing that Jackson ought to be one of the first 5 RBs off the board this year, but I think we are losing sight of the fact that Rams' RBs can be very effective FF RBs.
I think a couple of you are missing the point here. The Rams have not really rushed much the past 3 years but more importantly, the RBs have no been anywhere near as effective. The total workload of the running backs has been fairly constant but usage dipped about 10% the past three seasons. Here are the numbers.1999
388-1867-12 rushing
110-1268-7 receiving
498-3135-19 total
427.5 fantasy points
0.858 fantasy points per touch
2000
332-1687-25 rushing
102-959-9 receiving
434-2672-34 total
471.2 fantasy points
1.086 fantasy points per touch
2001
354-1870-19 rushing
105-957-10 receiving
459-2827-29 total
456.7 fantasy points
0.995 fantasy points per touch
2002
298-1236-9 rushing
124-895-4 receiving
422-2131-13 total
291.1 fantasy points
0.690 fantasy points per touch
2003
366-1370-15 rushing
68-451-1 receiving
434-1821-16 total
278.1 fantasy points
0.641 fantasy points per touch
2004
352-1516-8 rushing
84-614-1 receiving
436-2130-9 total
267 fantasy points
0.612 fantasy points per touch
I notice a substantial drop off in production, based largely due to much fewer TDs and lower receiving totals. Fewer touched + worse production, IMO does not = great fantasy production.
In the Rams' case, I see little that has changed to suggest that the team will function much differently. The coaching staff is the same (why, I don't know), the players are essentially the same, and the game plan on the surface appears to be based on airing it out.
Add in the Faulk factor (as I mentioned previously--if he's on the roster and some what healthy, I can't see him only holding a clipboard), and I don't see this as a breeding ground for great fantasy numbers.
Adding up ALL the touches and assigning them to a single RB, IMO, is not a valid argument. You could do that for ANY NFL team, and the result would be a Top 10 fantasy RB. I doubt Jackson (or 95% of all RBs) will get 435 carries on the season.
Unless the Rams redesign their game plan a decent amount AND they are a lot more effective using RBs to get in the end zone AND Faulk gets very little work, THEN Jackson would reap the benefits and be a top fantasy RB this season.
I wonder if that is really going to happen. Could it? Yes. Would I bet my team's success this season on it? I doubt it.
This could turn out to be a Barlow/Hearst, Dunn/Duckett, early Barber/Dayne, Staley/Bettis situation--and rarely does one party put up Top 10 numbers (if it did evolve to that).