Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (1 Viewer)

[T with T]

Charles put up some great numbers at the end of the season but he was also shut down against some of the better teamsvs Pitt who weren't as good as they normally are he went 17 for 58; he had a nice ST TD put everyone was scoring ST TDs against Pitt.vs Den he went 18 for 56at Cinny he went 24 for 102 against those 3 teams Charles had a low 3.66 YPC, on a positive note he did score 2 TDs against 3 of those teams and both TDs were within the 5 yd line.Charles also blew up the Raiders, Bills, & Browns for 400 yards and a crazy 6.3 ypc. Charles also had a good game against the Chargers during that time period going 18 for 93I think hes going to be a Fantasy disappointment for where hes getting drafted. Hes a high RB2 that can single-handly win you the week with one of his big games but I don't see him as a RB1 that you can depend on each week.I don't think he can handle more than 200 carries before his YPC really get affected vy the pounding.225 carries for 1050 / 45 recs (about 3 a game) for 350 / 8 TDs

BS... what about the 250 plus he had in the last game vs denver when they needed a win to get in the playoffs...Charles I say 1200-1400 rushing 10 tds40-50 catches 400-500 rec 1-2 tds1600-1900 yards from scrimmage 40-50 catches and 10-12 tdsthats around 300 points fellas thats a number 1 if i ever seen one kid

 

[T with T]

I've given up trying to change people's pre-conceived opinions. 2 things I will say (and these are not to support a 1500 yard prediction, just my opinions on relative points):1.) Charles is not some system back/guy who feasted on bad defenses and nothing else. He was ELITE in college and has been elite in terms of YPC/YPT since coming into the league. People forget just how good he was at Texas. Charlie Casserly called him the steal of that draft. The typically overrated size concerns must be the only reason he fell because he has all the talent in the world. Exceptional vision, balance, moves and the speed goes without saying.2.) Did he face some weaker run defenses last year? Yes. Well, lemme clue you in to something right here ... THAT'LL BE NO DIFFERENT THIS YEAR! Some want to list a single bad game against maybe the best defense in football but this year he faces a LOT of bad defenses. In fact he's got one of the easiest schedules in the league. So who cares if his biggest games come against bad defenses (ignoring that the same is true of all players in the league)?Oh, and the team offense has unquestionably improved on paper, too, so it's not like that's a reason to expect a decrease in production. The passing game should be better (can't be much worse), the blockers will be better and the coaching staff is impressive with Weis on board. My VERY conservative prediction (based on the YPC coming down, though I wouldn't be at all surprised if it was 5-5.5, he's that good): 210 car., 910 yards, 6 TD / 41 rec., 395 yards, 2 TD

Your post makes no sense.. you say how great charles is and his ypc will be 5-5.5 but you have him predicted getting less then 1000 yards on 210... He had 1120 on 190 last year.... DOH.... i think u meant 1210 because your predictions suck they make him seem worse ....

 

[Grahamburn]

Charles put up some great numbers at the end of the season but he was also shut down against some of the better teamsvs Pitt who weren't as good as they normally are he went 17 for 58; he had a nice ST TD put everyone was scoring ST TDs against Pitt.vs Den he went 18 for 56at Cinny he went 24 for 102 against those 3 teams Charles had a low 3.66 YPC, on a positive note he did score 2 TDs against 3 of those teams and both TDs were within the 5 yd line.Charles also blew up the Raiders, Bills, & Browns for 400 yards and a crazy 6.3 ypc. Charles also had a good game against the Chargers during that time period going 18 for 93I think hes going to be a Fantasy disappointment for where hes getting drafted. Hes a high RB2 that can single-handly win you the week with one of his big games but I don't see him as a RB1 that you can depend on each week.I don't think he can handle more than 200 carries before his YPC really get affected vy the pounding.225 carries for 1050 / 45 recs (about 3 a game) for 350 / 8 TDs

BS... what about the 250 plus he had in the last game vs denver when they needed a win to get in the playoffs...Charles I say 1200-1400 rushing 10 tds40-50 catches 400-500 rec 1-2 tds1600-1900 yards from scrimmage 40-50 catches and 10-12 tdsthats around 300 points fellas thats a number 1 if i ever seen one kid

Is this guy a JusT CuZ alias?

 

[Todem]

Rev up that Jamal Charles bandwagon baby.

 

[T with T]

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.

Really?1460 YFS & 14 TD's. But Shonn Greene has a great playoffs and now he outplayed him last year? C'mon man.

What happened was that Thomas Jones was due to cost $5.8M in 2010. At the same time, Greene showed flashes of being a #1 RB and so the Jets seeing better value and long term potential in the guy they had just drafted, decided to go the youth route.

Instead of demanding Jones, coming off A CAREER YEAR, take a salary cut AND a reduced role in the offense (which probably would not have played well in the locker room), the Jets made a tough call. They used half of the money to sign a veteran in Tomlinson whose production fell more in line with the type of role they could dictate to him.

So getting back to Jones...yes, I think KC sees a guy who finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing in 2009 as having a significant role in the offense that could limit Charles to 12-13 carries/game. That and the fact that KC, as much as they may want to run the ball, may not be in a position to dictate game tempo alot of the time.

There is no debating that Charles was lights out at the end of the season. But his 100 yard games came against:

Oakland: finished 29th in rushing D

Buffalo: finished 30th in rushing D

Cleveland: finished 28th in rushing D

Cincinnati: finished 7th in rushing D

Denver: finished 26th in rushing D

...the Cincy game was his least impressive 100 yard performance 24/102 long of 14 yards. And with 4 of these performance in the final 4 weeks against putrid teams or teams falling apart (i.e; Denver which allowed Jamarcus Russell to come off the bench and beat them)...he wasn't exactly facing geeked up teams.

IMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Lastly, when you consider that the Chiefs first 6 weeks look like this:

Week 1: SD

Week 2: @CLE

Week 3: SF

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: @IND

Week 6: @HOU

...teams that can either dictate frenetic offensive tempo (IND, HOU, SD) and/or defend the run fiercely (SF, HOU, SD), that doesn't spell a formula for success on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Chiefs defense doesn't seem anymore prepared or ready to stop opposing offenses, and I would draft Jonathan Stewart ahead of Charles.

Prediction: 196 carries, 952 rushing yards 6 TD's, 45 receptions 318 yards 1 TD.

u fail to mention that Tjones avg 4 ypc and have over 300 carries... greene had 5 ypc with less carries but was takin over at the end and ran the jets to the conf finals... you come on man... Jones is 32 and everyone knows he has lost a step and is just there to complement charles wake up

 

[T with T]

As a playmaker sorry McCluster is the best playmaker on that team. Anyone that thinks T. Jones won't get at least 35% of carries if not more is fooling themselves. Much of Charles screens will be taken by McCluster who is better and more explosive -- if McCluster was 20-25Lbs heavier he would a been the #1 RB taken. If McCluster adds weight and gets to about 185-190 he will be the main eventually. Charles where he is going is nuts -- sorry mid 2nd rounder - no thanks

horrible post, dont mean to knock guys but that is clearly screwed.. mccluster is better and more explosive??? how do you figure that one... charles is faster and more explosive and if anything he is the better player.. mccluster is only goin to play slot and he is a rook no way near as good as charles wake up 5.9 ypc

 

[T with T]

people all he needs to do is add 20 lbs which is done all the time in the NFL he weighs about 170 now. the Heisman winner Ingramtenn - 18-99 no TD'sAub - 16-30 -- rec 3-21 no scoresark - 17 - 50 3-21 2 scoresbowl game - 27 - 116 re 2-12 2 scoresMcCluster ( only started 1/2 the year as the feature back ) Ark - 22 - 123 rec 7-137 1 scoreaub - 22 - 186 rec 4-17 1 scoretenn - 25 - 282 rec 4-42 4 scoresbowl game - 34 - 184 re 5-45 2 scores NOTE: McCluster had no where near the Oline Ingram had/has or the team or defense. Still his stats BLEW Ingram away!!!he might never be a GL back but a B. Westbrook for certain once he add weight.his stats blew away spillers as well -- I won't compare Mathews as he played in a weaker division defensively.

thats college bud.. a 170 lb guy isn't gonna play runningback in the NFL wake up the shoulder inj was nothing he played up till end of season it was just maintenance these projections by some of you are horrible 900 yards rushing 190 carries.. come on man

 

[T with T]

All fo the McCluster crap needs to stop. The one guy who keeps posting it........he was drafted as a WIDE RECEIVER. Not a RB who will go out wide sometimes, but an actual WIDE RECEIVER.He may get 3 carries a game. Tops. Unless Charles and Jones both get hurt, or one gets hurt (then all bets are off there). He's a RECEIVER. Not a back. And he was the only weapon on his team in college period. For all we know, he won't even be as good as Peter Warrick in the NFL...who was an amazing collegiate athlete.

thank you well said... will that mccluster guy shut up already.... Chalres is a beast and can handle 300 touches... not carries but touches 240-60

 

[T with T]

Everyone will overdraft Shonne Greene and stay away from from Jamal Charles.....yet in the end I am going on record and saying in PPR scoring Charles will smoke Greene this year.This kid has the goods. He has world class speed....WORLD CLASS. Speed kills in the NFL if you know how to use it. Charles proved (and stop with who he played against that get's so over rated and over analyzed it's really absurd) he can be a feature back. When he was drafted it was for the sole purpose of replacing Larry Johnson at some point. This kid can ball and he will have every opportunity to be the lead dog. I am a huge Thomas Jones fan...he has always been a hard worker and really has given me plenty to cheer for as a great RB3 over the last several years. But let's face the facts. He is coming off a 347 carry season....he clearly broke down last year and was very uneffective in the later stages of the season and post season. Do I think he get's some work...of course. he will get it when Charles needs a breather from tearing up defenses. Charles is a 3 down weapon and can score from anywhere on the field. He is the Chiefs very best playmaker bar none. Dexter McCluster is being brought in to be a Percy Harvin. A guy they can line up all over the field and ultimatly become a top notch slot WR ala Wes Welker. McCluster has mad skills no doubt. he was not drafted to be a feature RB. No way.Charles is one of the guys if you have the balls to grab early...will win a league for you. When you can pair him up with another stud.....forget it. He IMO will perfrom as an RB1 and can be drafted as an RB2.Very bullish on Charles....I have the same bullishness on him like I did when Chris Johnson came into the league. The difference is Charles needed to add some stregnth and needed a real NFL off-season to get into prime NFL shape. The kid was a track star at Texas and he never worked out year round for football. Scary good this guy will be this season.

I like the way you think

 

[T with T]

I have to decide whether to keep Jcharles or Rgrant this year. At a cost of rd 7 for grant and 8 for charles. I am leaning Grant, and its pprSure the potential and updside are incredible for charles but the negatives are too great for me. only did it for half a year and had off season surgery, his new "competition" does figure in as well. To me there's more chance Charles is the next kbarlow or william green than the next cris johnson. Not to compare green's and barlow's skill sets to charles just they had a great breakout season where they did not start the full year and the next season hype was similar and they busted.

please tell me your not serious... if you keep grant you would be a fool sorry bud but thats just reality... if you have any brains keep charles geez

 

[T with T]

Why am I missing the point?

As I said already, this is a FANTASY thread, so the relevance of Norwood in any way, shape or form is unbelievably small. And like I also said, whether or not Norwood can carry Charles' jock strap is actually irrelevant for the very simple reason that Norwood never had the opportunity Charles had and continues to have in front of him.

You said Norwood has nice speed, but not like Charles. I provided factual evidence that Norwood's, the last time it was measured was better than Charles.

One nice run in the 40 doesn't stand on its own as some sort of authority. Charles has world-class sprinter speed; he ran track at Texas. Since they can't race, there's no absolute answer, but I think you'd struggle to convince anyone Norwood is as fast or faster.

But if Charles was so talented, what explains the fact that through his first 25 career games, he accounted for 96 carries?

Are you actually serious at this point? Talented players must be workhorses immediately or they suck?And that's not even asking the question of whether the coaches have a clue -- which in KC they rarely do. Herm Edwards certainly didn't, and Todd Haley hasn't shown to have much of one. He starts the likes of Mike Brown (JFC) and Mike Vrabel because of their "experience" and Terrence Copper for his "hard work" for crying out loud. Why in the world would I think it's negative that coaches like this failed to give the best RB on the team more carries sooner?Then there's the whole point of, you know, Norwood never accounting for many carries, either. With him the team goes out and spends a pretty penny on Michael Turner. With Charles the team signs a short-term backup. Some of the reservations you have may be right, but none have a lick to do with Jerious Norwood and your very first point remains an invalid one---Charles is nothing like Norwood for fantasy purposes because Charles is in line for 200-250 carries, something Norwood only dreams of.

why are you even arguin with knuckleheads comparing charles sit to norwoods.... Norwood has talent but nowhere near that of JC.. Charles is like a CJ2k twin even down to the hair do..... these guys are posting ludacris statements

 

[T with T]

I just watched a highlight video on youtube, and this guy's running style IS a lot like Norwood's. Out of a 4 minute video, I can't remember him breaking a legitimate tackle. Great runs in open space, but little challenge in actually getting to open space. Yes, the good news is that he faces a lot of the same teams that he scorched again, but it's buyer beware if you ask me. I have trouble imagining him being as wide open again, and the added weapons they've brought in will likely limit his carries.

I'll pass at his ADP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQwYI_WSMFU

you must be watching the wrong guy he looks like CHRIS JOHNSON to me guy.... go back to your hole

 

[cowpie]

Charles put up some great numbers at the end of the season but he was also shut down against some of the better teamsvs Pitt who weren't as good as they normally are he went 17 for 58; he had a nice ST TD put everyone was scoring ST TDs against Pitt.vs Den he went 18 for 56at Cinny he went 24 for 102 against those 3 teams Charles had a low 3.66 YPC, on a positive note he did score 2 TDs against 3 of those teams and both TDs were within the 5 yd line.Charles also blew up the Raiders, Bills, & Browns for 400 yards and a crazy 6.3 ypc. Charles also had a good game against the Chargers during that time period going 18 for 93I think hes going to be a Fantasy disappointment for where hes getting drafted. Hes a high RB2 that can single-handly win you the week with one of his big games but I don't see him as a RB1 that you can depend on each week.I don't think he can handle more than 200 carries before his YPC really get affected vy the pounding.Why don't you think he can handle more than 200 carries.225 carries for 1050 / 45 recs (about 3 a game) for 350 / 8 TDs

 

[BigSeph]

I rarely post here, but this kid has "it."

Breaking tackles is irrelevant when you're so fast nobody touches you. Chris Johnson can't break tackles very well either, but if he's 1 on 1 with a safety and there's 70 yards of open field behind that safety, I'll take shiftiness and speed over a Brandon Jacobs in that situation any day of the week.

Guys who can pick up yardage in 20+ yard chunks don't need that many carries to get 100 and they don't need red zone carries for TDs.

So let me get this straight:

He starts half a season and has over 1100 yards

His last 4 games are all 25 or less carries and he puts up 143, 154, 102, 259

He plays on a crappy team but can catch the ball on 3rd downs

He has an offensive-minded coach and a terrific coordinator

Averaged 5.9 ypc behind what we would all consider a subpar run-blocking line

Has track star speed paired with above average elusiveness

Comparing him to Norwood or Slaton is a joke, Slaton has vision but less speed, Norwood has the speed but horrible vision. Go watch clips of Norwood, he tries to get to the sideline every time he finds a crease and winds up getting angled down by a safety. Charles explodes through the crease and deals with the safety between the hashes, leaving him with open space and a full head of steam to make the safety "sit" and hope that Charles runs at him. Safeties in this league are naturally going to look for an angle, and their decision time is cut dramatically when you are running full steam at them and make a move as you get to them. Charles understands this, and you cannot teach it. He knows every time he's in space that his best bet is to accelerate directly to the safety and make a move on the safety rather than away from the safety. Norwood turns potential 40 yarders into 15 yarders by leaving the box and going for the sideline. This also makes Charles deadly on draw plays, shovel passes, and you could see Haley start to utilize this in the last couple games of the season.

If TJ gives him a breather on a series here and there, you're still looking at 275 carries, I'll give him a downtick to 5.5 ypc, that's still over 1500 yards rushing.

I predict Jamaal Charles has 280 carries, 1585 yards, 9 rushing TDs, 48 catches, 384 yards receiving, and 4 TDs.

That's almost 2k total yards and 13 total TDs. That's well worth anybody's late 1st/early 2nd pick. And a heck of a lot better than any WR1 will give you.

 

[-jb-]

I just watched a highlight video on youtube, and this guy's running style IS a lot like Norwood's. Out of a 4 minute video, I can't remember him breaking a legitimate tackle. Great runs in open space, but little challenge in actually getting to open space. Yes, the good news is that he faces a lot of the same teams that he scorched again, but it's buyer beware if you ask me. I have trouble imagining him being as wide open again, and the added weapons they've brought in will likely limit his carries.

I'll pass at his ADP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQwYI_WSMFU

you must be watching the wrong guy he looks like CHRIS JOHNSON to me guy.... go back to your hole

Stay classy.

 

[swirvenirvin]

I just watched a highlight video on youtube, and this guy's running style IS a lot like Norwood's. Out of a 4 minute video, I can't remember him breaking a legitimate tackle. Great runs in open space, but little challenge in actually getting to open space. Yes, the good news is that he faces a lot of the same teams that he scorched again, but it's buyer beware if you ask me. I have trouble imagining him being as wide open again, and the added weapons they've brought in will likely limit his carries.

I'll pass at his ADP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQwYI_WSMFU

absolutely nothing like noorwod wow

 

[T with T]

I rarely post here, but this kid has "it."Breaking tackles is irrelevant when you're so fast nobody touches you. Chris Johnson can't break tackles very well either, but if he's 1 on 1 with a safety and there's 70 yards of open field behind that safety, I'll take shiftiness and speed over a Brandon Jacobs in that situation any day of the week.Guys who can pick up yardage in 20+ yard chunks don't need that many carries to get 100 and they don't need red zone carries for TDs.So let me get this straight:He starts half a season and has over 1100 yardsHis last 4 games are all 25 or less carries and he puts up 143, 154, 102, 259He plays on a crappy team but can catch the ball on 3rd downsHe has an offensive-minded coach and a terrific coordinatorAveraged 5.9 ypc behind what we would all consider a subpar run-blocking lineHas track star speed paired with above average elusivenessComparing him to Norwood or Slaton is a joke, Slaton has vision but less speed, Norwood has the speed but horrible vision. Go watch clips of Norwood, he tries to get to the sideline every time he finds a crease and winds up getting angled down by a safety. Charles explodes through the crease and deals with the safety between the hashes, leaving him with open space and a full head of steam to make the safety "sit" and hope that Charles runs at him. Safeties in this league are naturally going to look for an angle, and their decision time is cut dramatically when you are running full steam at them and make a move as you get to them. Charles understands this, and you cannot teach it. He knows every time he's in space that his best bet is to accelerate directly to the safety and make a move on the safety rather than away from the safety. Norwood turns potential 40 yarders into 15 yarders by leaving the box and going for the sideline. This also makes Charles deadly on draw plays, shovel passes, and you could see Haley start to utilize this in the last couple games of the season.If TJ gives him a breather on a series here and there, you're still looking at 275 carries, I'll give him a downtick to 5.5 ypc, that's still over 1500 yards rushing.I predict Jamaal Charles has 280 carries, 1585 yards, 9 rushing TDs, 48 catches, 384 yards receiving, and 4 TDs.That's almost 2k total yards and 13 total TDs. That's well worth anybody's late 1st/early 2nd pick. And a heck of a lot better than any WR1 will give you.

Good post bud I like your analysis alot and I think you brought the most facts and straight up analysis to this board that I have seen so far on this player... Charles is so fast and his elusiveness, stop start acceleration and toughness is underrated or not talked about... He is a glider and has a running style like Barry or Dickerson.... not many people move that fluidly or have the same type of gliding running style just like CJ2k... if givin the opp which i think 250-260 carries and 40-60 catches could put him in ELITE top 5 in ppr and is def worth a 2nd round... one of the posters said he isn't worth a second round... get real

 

[Bojang0301]

I just watched a highlight video on youtube, and this guy's running style IS a lot like Norwood's. Out of a 4 minute video, I can't remember him breaking a legitimate tackle. Great runs in open space, but little challenge in actually getting to open space. Yes, the good news is that he faces a lot of the same teams that he scorched again, but it's buyer beware if you ask me. I have trouble imagining him being as wide open again, and the added weapons they've brought in will likely limit his carries.

I'll pass at his ADP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQwYI_WSMFU

you must be watching the wrong guy he looks like CHRIS JOHNSON to me guy.... go back to your hole

Stay classy.

I agree with you that that guy is out of line but I think you and I are watching a completely different video. On the goal line against SD he breaks 2 or 3 arm tackles, he breaks tackles on the ST play against Pitt and he breaks several arm and full on tackles against Denver. He is so fast that the defenders can't even line themselves up properly and if they try to (S against Buffalo) he blows right past them. To me he looks like a faster version of DeAngelo Williams. I remember people complaining about him not being able to break tackles and me thinking he was breaking several arm tackles with ease. Same thing applies here.

 

[-jb-]

I just watched a highlight video on youtube, and this guy's running style IS a lot like Norwood's. Out of a 4 minute video, I can't remember him breaking a legitimate tackle. Great runs in open space, but little challenge in actually getting to open space. Yes, the good news is that he faces a lot of the same teams that he scorched again, but it's buyer beware if you ask me. I have trouble imagining him being as wide open again, and the added weapons they've brought in will likely limit his carries.

I'll pass at his ADP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQwYI_WSMFU

absolutely nothing like noorwod wow

Yeah, I'm clearly in the minority here...but they both have a style based on speed, and they both have long legs/strides. When I see Chris Johnson, I see shorter strides so I don't think they're as similar.

 

[T with T]

JC breaks enough tackles and is very elusive... the sd game he broke a few tackles and made some guys miss... he has awesome acceleration, long speed is better then cj2k imo

 

[T with T]

some of these projections are cracking me up.... Where is our little friend MOZ I would like to hear from him some more.. I would like to know how a guy who had 8 straight starts and had 1120 yards rushing on 190 carries 5.9 ypc and got stronger as the year went on as his last 4 games were 100 plus ending with a 259 yard effort vs the broncos when they needed that to get a wildcard berth.. charles actually sat last 5-6 min and could have had a shot at the record that AP has 296 i think . anyways I dont get these 800 yard rushing predictions.... people even with 200 carries he should get 1000 yards.... the only way i dont see him getting 300 touches 250x50 is if he gets hurt.... he should be good for 1400-1500 yards rushing 10-12 tds 40-60 catches 400-500

2000 yards from scrimagge

5.5 ypc at 275= 1512 and 60x9=540 which would equate to 2052.... that is in 335 touches about the same that ray rice had and even less then AP, MJD as they had 350+touches... CJ2khad 400 touches last year and is the same build as charles so I dont want to get slammed with the charles is to small bs bcuz I dont buy it all

 

[-jb-]

some of these projections are cracking me up.... Where is our little friend MOZ I would like to hear from him some more.. I would like to know how a guy who had 8 straight starts and had 1120 yards rushing on 190 carries 5.9 ypc and got stronger as the year went on as his last 4 games were 100 plus ending with a 259 yard effort vs the broncos when they needed that to get a wildcard berth.. charles actually sat last 5-6 min and could have had a shot at the record that AP has 296 i think . anyways I dont get these 800 yard rushing predictions.... people even with 200 carries he should get 1000 yards.... the only way i dont see him getting 300 touches 250x50 is if he gets hurt.... he should be good for 1400-1500 yards rushing 10-12 tds 40-60 catches 400-500 2000 yards from scrimagge5.5 ypc at 275= 1512 and 60x9=540 which would equate to 2052.... that is in 335 touches about the same that ray rice had and even less then AP, MJD as they had 350+touches... CJ2khad 400 touches last year and is the same build as charles so I dont want to get slammed with the charles is to small bs bcuz I dont buy it all

Where do you rank him among other RBs for 2010?

 

[T with T]

top 5 to 8 in 2010 and beyond

 

[dwyadog]

top 5 to 8 in 2010 and beyond

2000+yards and 12 td's with all those receptions only equates to top 5-8? I know every league is different but those numbers would have put him at #2 in cj's monster year and #1 most years in my main fun league. If you believe he puts up those kind of numbers, why just top 5 to 8? Or did you mean top 5-8 overall includng all other positions?

 

[dwyadog]

Also how many rushing td's have the chiefs put up in recent years? Will there be a huge spike this year? Will tjones get none? No fades to bowe or plays to mccluster inside the 10? I think charles will be great but im expecting more 1300-1400 yfs, 8-9 td's this year. I think he'll be even stronger in 2011. I'm even considering dealing megatron for him and a sweetener but i have a hard time seeing 2000/12 on that offense with all the other parts.

 

[AtomicDogg97]

How early is too early to draft him? I am picking at the 12/13 curve and I want him really bad. I also don't want to reach.

 

[dwyadog]

based on what a lot of people are thinking and his adp youd have to take him there, there is no chance he'd make it back to you at the last pick in the 3rd. If you feel strongly he'll be a stud, go for it!

depending on your league dynamics you could go sjax/dwill/mendy at 12 and charles at 13 or take a wide receiver. it might be a "reach" but if you think he'll get the numbers, youll be fine. especially if you really like him more than the other options youll have there.

 

[BINGBING]

Rev up that Jamal Charles bandwagon baby.

I knew when I gave you J Charles for Mason after I took him in the rookie draft it was a lame attempt by me to win now...and it came back to bite me when you beat me in the finals.

 

[T with T]

top 5-8 overalll.... Rb wise I have him right there with Ap,cj,mjd,rice...... so top 5 rb and top 5-8 overall...

2000 yards from scrimmage and 40-60 catches is very doable.. i may be alittle high on tds but he had 8 with half year workload... even if he had 10 he would be top 5 overall

 

[-jb-]

i may be alittle high.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Charles put up some great numbers at the end of the season but he was also shut down against some of the better teams

vs Pitt who weren't as good as they normally are he went 17 for 58; he had a nice ST TD put everyone was scoring ST TDs against Pitt.

vs Den he went 18 for 56

at Cinny he went 24 for 102

against those 3 teams Charles had a low 3.66 YPC, on a positive note he did score 2 TDs against 3 of those teams and both TDs were within the 5 yd line.

Charles also blew up the Raiders, Bills, & Browns for 400 yards and a crazy 6.3 ypc.

Charles also had a good game against the Chargers during that time period going 18 for 93

I think hes going to be a Fantasy disappointment for where hes getting drafted. Hes a high RB2 that can single-handly win you the week with one of his big games but I don't see him as a RB1 that you can depend on each week.

I don't think he can handle more than 200 carries before his YPC really get affected vy the pounding.

Why don't you think he can handle more than 200 carries.

225 carries for 1050 / 45 recs (about 3 a game) for 350 / 8 TDs

I didn't say he couldn't handle over 200 carries... I said YPC will begin to fall once he goes over 200. At the end of the year he'll be beat and YPC will really take a hit. TJ isn't going to be much help IMO... KC needed to bring in a younger / better piece to pair with Charles.

I'll pass at his ADP.

I'm sticking with my post and projection... which was written on Jun 1st; Charles was a late 1st rounder back then. As of late, his ADP is falling off the cliff. I've been doing yahoo & ESPN drafts all month long and been seeing Charles taken late 2nd / early 3rd and just thought that was the common FF player missing on the hype. I'm in Premier Draftmasters Draft this year, which is PPR / System Plays your best Player which is the best type of league for a player like Charles; and I was shocked to see Charles last all the to 3.03... even at my projection that is a STEAL!!!! Ofcourse I was 3.04.http://football25.myfantasyleague.com/2010...=17181&O=17

 

[dwyadog]

top 5-8 overalll.... Rb wise I have him right there with Ap,cj,mjd,rice...... so top 5 rb and top 5-8 overall... 2000 yards from scrimmage and 40-60 catches is very doable.. i may be alittle high on tds but he had 8 with half year workload... even if he had 10 he would be top 5 overall

why do you have him behind mjd, ap, rice and cj? the numbers you project puts him ahead of all of them unless they all match cj from last year or better? Just not understanding on my end bro, perhaps im being too obstuse. using your projections on charles, my top 5 would be charles, mjd, cj, ap, rice. 2000 yards, 50 catches, 10 tds puts him at #4 in my league last year, your original projections make him far better than rice and even or slightly ahead of ap or mjd. ITs cool bro, i hope he has that kind of season. What do you see tjones/bowe/mccluster/chambers and others doing?

 

[T with T]

How early is too early to draft him? I am picking at the 12/13 curve and I want him really bad. I also don't want to reach.

i have taken him 13th overall in ppr ... guys like r. matthes, mendenhall were there but in ppr I like charles better then both of them

 

[T with T]

top 5-8 overalll.... Rb wise I have him right there with Ap,cj,mjd,rice...... so top 5 rb and top 5-8 overall... 2000 yards from scrimmage and 40-60 catches is very doable.. i may be alittle high on tds but he had 8 with half year workload... even if he had 10 he would be top 5 overall

why do you have him behind mjd, ap, rice and cj? the numbers you project puts him ahead of all of them unless they all match cj from last year or better? Just not understanding on my end bro, perhaps im being too obstuse. using your projections on charles, my top 5 would be charles, mjd, cj, ap, rice. 2000 yards, 50 catches, 10 tds puts him at #4 in my league last year, your original projections make him far better than rice and even or slightly ahead of ap or mjd. ITs cool bro, i hope he has that kind of season. What do you see tjones/bowe/mccluster/chambers and others doing?

well with my projections he wouldn't have more points then CJ CJ had 2500 yards from scrimmage 50 catches and 16 tds... dont see how you say he would be higher then him... with my proj he would have about 310-320.... ap,cj,rice all had about 320-325 so he is right in the mix.... I mean no one knows for sure thats just what im projectingTjones 700-4 Mccluster 40-50 catches for 700 4tdschambers 50-800-5Bowe 80-1100-9

 

[dwyadog]

i didnt say he'd be higher than cj was last year , i said he'd be higher than then unless they matched what cj did last year. i was talking about your projections, for 2011. the high end of your original projection, 60 catches, 2000+ total yards and 12 tds would have had him higher than better than rice and mjd and ap in most of my leagues but generally right amongst them.

still id find it amazing if the rb9 had about 2000 yfs and 10 scores since you have charles 5-8 at those numbers. just man up and say he'll be top 3

interesting projections, i hope he does that well.

 

[mastergg]

New to the forum. Been doing fantasy for 25 yrs. Basic scoring. I love Charles. For all those that think Thomas Jones is going to hurt his numbers, all you have to do is look at Larry Johnson's body of work last year. KC can't run between the tackles. The line stinks. That's why Larry Johnson stunk. Right between the tackles and a step slow. Thats why Charles was so effective. He made penetrating linemen miss and was fast enough to outrun the linebackers past the line of scrimmage. Teams may actually adjust to defend him this year, which is why a guy like thomas jones was brought in to keep defenses honest. Jones ran behind a tough physical line in n.y. 4.2ypc. that style will prob translate into a 3.4 ypc on this team. definately won't be getting alot of work. Charlie weiss and haley are smart enough to know what they've got to work with. If defenses can figure out a way to stop Charles, then his numbers might decline. The only problem with that is he faces a BUNCH of crappy defenses again this year. He's just like CJ. He's so fast that half the defense is at a full sprint chasing the guy half the time. He makes alot of big plays and tires the defense. Then a guy like Jones that can grind out some tough yards can come in and spell him. Charles will probably outcarry jones 2-1 and post similar numbers to last year considering how soft his schedule is this year.

 

[cowpie]

Also how many rushing td's have the chiefs put up in recent years? Will there be a huge spike this year? Will tjones get none? No fades to bowe or plays to mccluster inside the 10? I think charles will be great but im expecting more 1300-1400 yfs, 8-9 td's this year. I think he'll be even stronger in 2011. I'm even considering dealing megatron for him and a sweetener but i have a hard time seeing 2000/12 on that offense with all the other parts.

I am with you on this one, 4 of his 7 rushing tds were for over 40 yards - even chris johnson only had 5 that were 40 or more (he did have a 39 yarder though). so you can even say CJ had 6 in a full season. and Charles had 4 in 1/2. those numbers have to come down. Week 10 44 yard td OakWeek 12 4 yard td SDWeek 13 4 yard td DenWeek 14 76 yard td BufWeek 15 47 yard td CLEWeek 17 5 yard td DenWeek 17 56 yard td DenOn top of that, 3 (almost half) of his tds were against one team...denver. I am guessing that is YPC will come down into the 4's. say 4.5 - 4.8 or so. not too many full time rbs can keep it in the 5's. For him to reach the 2000 total yards, he would need 300 carries. I would guess that t jones will get the goal line tds and close to 100 carries since Jones did have 14 tds last year and they are paying a decent amount for him. If that is the case, Charles coud still be a great fanstasy RB, but 250 rushes will be the most he gets.... THE MOST. No team that has two big name or highly paid backs and been able to produce a rb that gets 300 carries. On top of that, only 6 rbs last year had over 300 carries and those include... chris johnson , peterson, MJD, t jones, s jackson, Benson. carries yards YPCcj 358 2006 5.60ap 315 1389 4.41mjd 312 1391 4.46t jones 332 1402 4.22s jack 325 1424 4.38Benson 301 1251 4.16Based on the above info, i see2010 PROJECTIONS HIGH END PROJECTIONS250 rushes - 4.8YPC = 1200 Rushing YARDS40 Receptions - 7.0 ypc = 280 receiving yards7 rushing Tds 2 receiving Tds= 202 fantasy points for 2010 - which would be around the 9th or 10th best rb in 2009 or the 13th best in 2008. Look for him to fall somewhere in between 9th best and 13th best with a very similar year to CJ from 2008. Since he is being drafted as the 15th rb off the board, there is not much "Value" reaching for him. I mean, I have seen him go 16th overall as the 9th RB off the board. He is very similar to 2008 Chris Johnson or 2009 ray rice minus 400ish receiving yards. Both rice and johnson did what they did because there was another player taking carries holding the stud at only 250 carries or so. I love Charles but will only take him as the 13th RB or higher RB off the board which would most likely be in the late 2nd or later. 2011 is the year i would consider going hard for Charles with hopes that he would even have a chance for a chris johnson type year assuming T jones is pulled out of the mix.

 

[B. Nugget]

I am a Chiefs fan and I really like Charles and was very impressed by what he was able to do last year, but there is no way I'm touching him until the late 2nd round this year and will likely let someone else take the risk that he flops because unless he just falls, he won't be any of my rosters, especially as a RB1...I actually just traded him for Schaub and 2 1sts in a KC Chiefs homer keeper league...The Charles love has gotten out of hand and I considered him my RB4 behind Rice, Mendy and Beanie...

Just a year ago there was a young can't miss dynamo named Slaton and another one named Forte that was there in the mid 1st or even falling to the bottom of the 1st round, the year before it was a another flash in the pan like E. Graham or Addai that didn't live up to their ADP and required an early pick, the names go on and on... I hope I'm wrong, but he looks like the guy that is going to kill your roster this year because you will have to reach for him and he will have to put up some serious numbers to justifiy his ADP.

Charles is a good player, there is no doubt he is exciting, but his value skyrocketed based on a couple of unreal games at the end of the year...this is still the same ####ty KC line, Matt Cassell, a rookie TE, Bowe and Chambers dropping balls hitting them in the numbers, etc...Charles is the flashy player like DJAX that has an inflated value because of the long TDs.

If you think JC is busting off those long ones a couple of times a game, then I say draft him 1st overall because the projections that some have posted in this thread make him a sure-fire top 3 player...2k yds on 300 plus touches? If that was so easy for a guy to put up on a bad team, well then SJAX wouldn't be going for peanuts right now in dynasty leagues...he was only able to put up one season like that and to me there is no comparison in talent when comparing a beast like SJAX to CJ.

At some point, likely the mid to late 2nd, he becomes worth the risk because the guys around him carry similar risk, but his ADP as RB10 is WAY too high right now and it forces you to take him as a RB1 and I'm not willing to make him an anchor on my team at that price when there are safer guys there with just as much upside...I guess it just depends on how much risk you can handle.

I could see if everything goes right that Charles could get his 1,200 yds and up to 400 or so receiving, but I think many are discounting TJ in the redzone. CJ just isn't going to hold up to the pounding of a full season and if he does, he isn't going to get all of those goalline chances, IMO.

I think a smarter play would be to get your stud WR and take a guy like McCoy later and get similar production at RB.

Just my $.02

 

[T with T]

I am a Chiefs fan and I really like Charles and was very impressed by what he was able to do last year, but there is no way I'm touching him until the late 2nd round this year and will likely let someone else take the risk that he flops because unless he just falls, he won't be any of my rosters, especially as a RB1...I actually just traded him for Schaub and 2 1sts in a KC Chiefs homer keeper league...The Charles love has gotten out of hand and I considered him my RB4 behind Rice, Mendy and Beanie...Just a year ago there was a young can't miss dynamo named Slaton and another one named Forte that was there in the mid 1st or even falling to the bottom of the 1st round, the year before it was a another flash in the pan like E. Graham or Addai that didn't live up to their ADP and required an early pick, the names go on and on... I hope I'm wrong, but he looks like the guy that is going to kill your roster this year because you will have to reach for him and he will have to put up some serious numbers to justifiy his ADP.Charles is a good player, there is no doubt he is exciting, but his value skyrocketed based on a couple of unreal games at the end of the year...this is still the same ####ty KC line, Matt Cassell, a rookie TE, Bowe and Chambers dropping balls hitting them in the numbers, etc...Charles is the flashy player like DJAX that has an inflated value because of the long TDs. If you think JC is busting off those long ones a couple of times a game, then I say draft him 1st overall because the projections that some have posted in this thread make him a sure-fire top 3 player...2k yds on 300 plus touches? If that was so easy for a guy to put up on a bad team, well then SJAX wouldn't be going for peanuts right now in dynasty leagues...he was only able to put up one season like that and to me there is no comparison in talent when comparing a beast like SJAX to CJ.At some point, likely the mid to late 2nd, he becomes worth the risk because the guys around him carry similar risk, but his ADP as RB10 is WAY too high right now and it forces you to take him as a RB1 and I'm not willing to make him an anchor on my team at that price when there are safer guys there with just as much upside...I guess it just depends on how much risk you can handle.I could see if everything goes right that Charles could get his 1,200 yds and up to 400 or so receiving, but I think many are discounting TJ in the redzone. CJ just isn't going to hold up to the pounding of a full season and if he does, he isn't going to get all of those goalline chances, IMO.0 poI think a smarter play would be to get your stud WR and take a guy like McCoy later and get similar production at RB.Just my $.0210

you are saying he is good and predicting 1600 yards from scrimmage and say he is worth at most late 2nd early third... wow 1600 yards would be awesome I would think he would be top 10 overall unless u think he is getting 2-3 tds this year..... even 1200 and 50 for 400 with 8-10 tds puts him about 260-270 points as a top 6-7 rb in ppr....

 

[swirvenirvin]

I just watched a highlight video on youtube, and this guy's running style IS a lot like Norwood's. Out of a 4 minute video, I can't remember him breaking a legitimate tackle. Great runs in open space, but little challenge in actually getting to open space. Yes, the good news is that he faces a lot of the same teams that he scorched again, but it's buyer beware if you ask me. I have trouble imagining him being as wide open again, and the added weapons they've brought in will likely limit his carries.

I'll pass at his ADP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQwYI_WSMFU

absolutely nothing like noorwod wow

Yeah, I'm clearly in the minority here...but they both have a style based on speed, and they both have long legs/strides. When I see Chris Johnson, I see shorter strides so I don't think they're as similar.

Yeah I dont really see the Chris Johnson thing either

 

[redBourne]

Can someone put this in perspective for me (no seriously).

I've read that JCharles managed 3.6 yards per carry after the first contact, to go first in the league in that category. Is this saying that, in a vacuum, if Charles had as many touches as Chris Johnson (3.0 in the same category), he would have surpased CJ's 1,071 yds after contact, and possibly approached his total yards for the year?

 

[dwyadog]

Can someone put this in perspective for me (no seriously).I've read that JCharles managed 3.6 yards per carry after the first contact, to go first in the league in that category. Is this saying that, in a vacuum, if Charles had as many touches as Chris Johnson (3.0 in the same category), he would have surpased CJ's 1,071 yds after contact, and possibly approached his total yards for the year?

A lot of stats put in a vacuum can than be spread over 16 games to make for some amazing numbers. Yes since 3.6 is higher than 3.0, if one was to simply up the number of touches charles gets he would have had more yards after contact. Over course if the old devery henderson had as many receptions as marshall, he'd be over 2000 receiving every year too no?eta: ive never received a satisfactory and complete explanation of yards after contact, too many variables to me. Do you get 80 yards after first contact if you bust through a huge hole in the line and someone puts a hand on you? Someone broke it down for me once and it seemed to be too much if a judgement call. I'm always open to hearing more explanations though.

 

[redBourne]

Can someone put this in perspective for me (no seriously).

I've read that JCharles managed 3.6 yards per carry after the first contact, to go first in the league in that category. Is this saying that, in a vacuum, if Charles had as many touches as Chris Johnson (3.0 in the same category), he would have surpased CJ's 1,071 yds after contact, and possibly approached his total yards for the year?

A lot of stats put in a vacuum can than be spread over 16 games to make for some amazing numbers. Yes since 3.6 is higher than 3.0, if one was to simply up the number of touches charles gets he would have had more yards after contact. Over course if the old devery henderson had as many receptions as marshall, he'd be over 2000 receiving every year too no?eta: ive never received a satisfactory and complete explanation of yards after contact, too many variables to me. Do you get 80 yards after first contact if you bust through a huge hole in the line and someone puts a hand on you? Someone broke it down for me once and it seemed to be too much if a judgement call. I'm always open to hearing more explanations though.

That's kinda what I was looking for too. I think someone mentioned in this thread they believed JCharles would go down on contact, but this stat would seem to tell a different tale. of course, without context it doesnt' mean anything.

 

[T with T]

Can someone put this in perspective for me (no seriously).

I've read that JCharles managed 3.6 yards per carry after the first contact, to go first in the league in that category. Is this saying that, in a vacuum, if Charles had as many touches as Chris Johnson (3.0 in the same category), he would have surpased CJ's 1,071 yds after contact, and possibly approached his total yards for the year?

A lot of stats put in a vacuum can than be spread over 16 games to make for some amazing numbers. Yes since 3.6 is higher than 3.0, if one was to simply up the number of touches charles gets he would have had more yards after contact. Over course if the old devery henderson had as many receptions as marshall, he'd be over 2000 receiving every year too no?eta: ive never received a satisfactory and complete explanation of yards after contact, too many variables to me. Do you get 80 yards after first contact if you bust through a huge hole in the line and someone puts a hand on you? Someone broke it down for me once and it seemed to be too much if a judgement call. I'm always open to hearing more explanations though.

That's kinda what I was looking for too. I think someone mentioned in this thread they believed JCharles would go down on contact, but this stat would seem to tell a different tale. of course, without context it doesnt' mean anything.

Charles is incredibly strong for his size and I read somewhere that charles put on 5lbs of Muscle and looked really good this offseason.. that would put him at about 5-10 205 with olympic speed and great elusiveness,quicks,vision, stop/start ability to take a hit and elude defenders and blow by them... 5.9 ypc and 3.6 after contact... norwood is a spaghetti noodle compared to this guy ... He compares way closer to CJ2k then Norwood wake up....

 

[dwyadog]

Can someone put this in perspective for me (no seriously).

I've read that JCharles managed 3.6 yards per carry after the first contact, to go first in the league in that category. Is this saying that, in a vacuum, if Charles had as many touches as Chris Johnson (3.0 in the same category), he would have surpased CJ's 1,071 yds after contact, and possibly approached his total yards for the year?

A lot of stats put in a vacuum can than be spread over 16 games to make for some amazing numbers. Yes since 3.6 is higher than 3.0, if one was to simply up the number of touches charles gets he would have had more yards after contact. Over course if the old devery henderson had as many receptions as marshall, he'd be over 2000 receiving every year too no?eta: ive never received a satisfactory and complete explanation of yards after contact, too many variables to me. Do you get 80 yards after first contact if you bust through a huge hole in the line and someone puts a hand on you? Someone broke it down for me once and it seemed to be too much if a judgement call. I'm always open to hearing more explanations though.

That's kinda what I was looking for too. I think someone mentioned in this thread they believed JCharles would go down on contact, but this stat would seem to tell a different tale. of course, without context it doesnt' mean anything.

Charles is incredibly strong for his size and I read somewhere that charles put on 5lbs of Muscle and looked really good this offseason.. that would put him at about 5-10 205 with olympic speed and great elusiveness,quicks,vision, stop/start ability to take a hit and elude defenders and blow by them... 5.9 ypc and 3.6 after contact... norwood is a spaghetti noodle compared to this guy ... He compares way closer to CJ2k then Norwood wake up....

Im not asleep on charles, far from it. I was not one of the guys who brought up the norwood comparison. I just dont see 2000 yfs. I also see something like chris johnson but not quite the same. This will be a great year to watch charles. He has great speed and I'm also not down on him because of his size as I've also made a point of other threads. I think with all the other variables in KC that about 1300-1400 would be great to see from charles. Can he go higher? Sure, if the situation is right but I dont see that at this time. Thats why I mentioned I'm even higher on him for 2011. Monster seasons dont come along very often no matter who the player is. I dont think given the kc o-line, the game situations theyll be in and the other variables that charles will get 260+ rushes at 5.9 a clip and 60 receptions.

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

He looks closer to Norwood then CJ to me. Good straightline speed but nowhere near the elusiveness or vision of CJ. He can have a nice year but the first thing that jumped out at me re-visiting the highlights were the scores of the games and the competition.

Watching Forsett's highlights impressed me more. And he's much slower.

 

[dwyadog]

the scores of the game and competition didnt concern you with forsett?

 

[Sopranos25]

Ok people, lets put this to rest. If you were more impressed by Forsett than Charles than you have a long way to go. Charles is fast,Dynamic and skilled. R Bush skilled but more powerfull. Forsett is is an average talent in a good spot. Remember S Gado?? How many people here really study football? It is life you know!!

 

[Shadows]

He looks closer to Norwood then CJ to me. Good straightline speed but nowhere near the elusiveness or vision of CJ. He can have a nice year but the first thing that jumped out at me re-visiting the highlights were the scores of the games and the competition. Watching Forsett's highlights impressed me more. And he's much slower.

U watch footy way different to me then. I find it better if u open ur eyes when judging talent

 

[Invictus~Bronte]

Thanks for all that sage wisdom

When I'm cashing in again this year I'll not think of your advice