Jamaal Charles. You heard it here first. (1 Viewer)

[Instinctive]

I think it's a good move as is, but you probably could have done considerably better.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

I think it's a good move as is, but you probably could have done considerably better.

Would him being a Chief change your view of him? As an owner. I just think the potential for them to add or draft a RB would/ could have hurt his value later. I didn't want them to add a Westbrook or Tomlinson then have any owner get cold feet or something. I just didn't want to get greedy since I was pretty well loaded at RB. I guess time will tell though.

 

[TS Garp]

I voted no, as I think Charles is a legit talent and I don't seem being a true "bust," however that's truly defined. That said, as easy as it is to get visions of Chris Johnson in your head and prorate the numbers from his second half over a full season, I don't think it's that simple. I do have a few concerns:

* 3 of his last 4 games where he went on that spectacular run came against very poor teams. I don't just mean poor run defenses, although those 3 were very bad against the run, but the point to me is that he got 20, 25, 24, and 25 carries in those games, most likely largely because all of the games were close, and the one that wasn't was a huge blowout win for the Chiefs. I still think this franchise is a work in progress, and I'm not sure that they'll play as many close games or that Charles can be counted on to get that many carries again. I know he's a three down back so he'll be on the field a lot and I also know his schedule looks favorable and I know he shouldn't be punished for beating up on bad defenses, but I do take those games with a grain of salt.

* No one truly knows how the addition of Charlie Weis will play out for Charles. If his time in New England is any indication, he likes big backs (he brought in Antowain Smith and then Corey Dillon) paired with a traditional third down back (Kevin Faulk). It could be that Weis feels Charles is best used in a rotation or that they need a bruiser to help keep him fresh. Not saying he won't be "the guy," but I also wouldn't rule out the Chiefs bringing in another RB via free agency or the draft and giving him real work. Again, you can argue whether Charles is most effective in a rotation or not, but the fact remains that there are coaches who firmly believe that guys of this build and running style will be most effective over the long term if their carries are limited. Will the Chiefs take this approach with Charles? Time will tell.

* The Steve Slaton syndrome: Going into last season, it was hard to find something not to like in Slaton. He'd closed out the 2008 season in great fashion and played on a team with a great QB and WR. Although his run in 2008 wasn't as impressive as Charles', he similarly had 21, 21, 26, 24, 18, and 20 carries to close out the year and only ended up topping 20 carries once in 2010. A lot of this was due to his fumbling, and, coincidentally, Charles has had fumbling issues in the past. In 257 career carries, he's fumbled 6 times and lost 5 of them. Again, more reason why the Chiefs might bring someone else in. And, it makes his job security a little more shaky (ala Slaton).

Again, I don't think he'll be a "bust," but I also think it's important not to get carried away with his last few games and to realize that things aren't black and white in terms of his situation and the way he'll be used next season. I doubt I'll own him in any leagues, as someone will likely reach high for him, and I'm just not willing to do that.

 

[awesomeness]

I think it's a good move as is, but you probably could have done considerably better.

Would him being a Chief change your view of him? As an owner. I just think the potential for them to add or draft a RB would/ could have hurt his value later. I didn't want them to add a Westbrook or Tomlinson then have any owner get cold feet or something. I just didn't want to get greedy since I was pretty well loaded at RB. I guess time will tell though.

For starters, why on earth would Tomlinson or Westbrook want to sign with the Cheifs, and why would the Cheifs want either of them? The Cheifs have too many holes to sign a high priced free agent or spend a high draft pick on a RB, particularly after the success Charles obtained last year. Granted the Cheifs will certainly bring in someone, but with the praise that Charles has received from his coaches i think its pretty safe to say he's going to be the primary ball carrier.

 

[Sleeping King]

There is no one available that the Chiefs could bring in that should change anyone's opinion on Charles. They could bring in LT, Westbrook, Taylor, spend a 3rd round pick...It doesn't matter. Charles is better than any of those players on first, second and third down. He is going to get the ball a ton regardless.

 

[TS Garp]

There is no one available that the Chiefs could bring in that should change anyone's opinion on Charles. They could bring in LT, Westbrook, Taylor, spend a 3rd round pick...It doesn't matter. Charles is better than any of those players on first, second and third down. He is going to get the ball a ton regardless.

In your opinion. Charlie Weis may feel differently.

 

[Sleeping King]

There is no one available that the Chiefs could bring in that should change anyone's opinion on Charles. They could bring in LT, Westbrook, Taylor, spend a 3rd round pick...It doesn't matter. Charles is better than any of those players on first, second and third down. He is going to get the ball a ton regardless.

In your opinion. Charlie Weis may feel differently.

Charlie Weis has a history of riding a bell cow at RB. From Adrian Murrell to Curtis Martin to Antwain Smith to Corey Dillon. There is nothing in his pro resume to support a committee approach. The only two years he has done so were an absolute awful 2000 Pats team led by the great Kevin Faulk and JR Redmond and 2003 with an injured Antwain Smith and Kevin Faulk.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

I think it's a good move as is, but you probably could have done considerably better.

Would him being a Chief change your view of him? As an owner. I just think the potential for them to add or draft a RB would/ could have hurt his value later. I didn't want them to add a Westbrook or Tomlinson then have any owner get cold feet or something. I just didn't want to get greedy since I was pretty well loaded at RB. I guess time will tell though.

For starters, why on earth would Tomlinson or Westbrook want to sign with the Cheifs, and why would the Cheifs want either of them? The Cheifs have too many holes to sign a high priced free agent or spend a high draft pick on a RB, particularly after the success Charles obtained last year. Granted the Cheifs will certainly bring in someone, but with the praise that Charles has received from his coaches i think its pretty safe to say he's going to be the primary ball carrier.

Why would 2 broken down starters possible sign with the Chiefs? Maybe the same reason Emmitt Smith did with Arizona. Tomlinson and Westbrook really aren't in a position to call their own shots anymore as well. I'm not saying it's a lock they bring in a Tomlinson, Westbrook, Taylor or even draft a guy early but with what they have behind him (virtually nothing) coupled with him not really being proven there's a pretty good chance they'll address that position in some way. After that it's a up in the air and I just didn't want to take that chance so I passed on him to avoid any potential problems later on.Don't get me wrong, I believe he is talented but I didn't have the need for him and didn't want any outside problems down the road. If they did bring in a LT or Westbrook that would put a major dent in his value.

 

[Todem]

Charlie Casserly who knows a thing or two about drafting talent (Mario Williams over Reggie Bush ring a bell) loved, I mean loved Jamal Charles and predicted after he got a few off season programs under his belt (bulk up a little with muscle not fat) would explode and become a great all purpose back.

The kid has arrived and will be a good feature back for the Chiefs. He has top 10 PPR potential written all over him over a full season. And he is a homerun hitter. I do hink he does carry some risk becuase of the team he plays on but at the same time he is a good recieving back so even if they are always playing catch up...he will get his numbers regardless. I expect him to perform at his current ADP and i do think it does take some balls to draft him that high. But I don't play in redrafts....gave those up a long time ago.

I am a believer.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I voted no, as I think Charles is a legit talent and I don't seem being a true "bust," however that's truly defined. That said, as easy as it is to get visions of Chris Johnson in your head and prorate the numbers from his second half over a full season, I don't think it's that simple. I do have a few concerns:* 3 of his last 4 games where he went on that spectacular run came against very poor teams. I don't just mean poor run defenses, although those 3 were very bad against the run, but the point to me is that he got 20, 25, 24, and 25 carries in those games, most likely largely because all of the games were close, and the one that wasn't was a huge blowout win for the Chiefs. I still think this franchise is a work in progress, and I'm not sure that they'll play as many close games or that Charles can be counted on to get that many carries again. I know he's a three down back so he'll be on the field a lot and I also know his schedule looks favorable and I know he shouldn't be punished for beating up on bad defenses, but I do take those games with a grain of salt. * No one truly knows how the addition of Charlie Weis will play out for Charles. If his time in New England is any indication, he likes big backs (he brought in Antowain Smith and then Corey Dillon) paired with a traditional third down back (Kevin Faulk). It could be that Weis feels Charles is best used in a rotation or that they need a bruiser to help keep him fresh. Not saying he won't be "the guy," but I also wouldn't rule out the Chiefs bringing in another RB via free agency or the draft and giving him real work. Again, you can argue whether Charles is most effective in a rotation or not, but the fact remains that there are coaches who firmly believe that guys of this build and running style will be most effective over the long term if their carries are limited. Will the Chiefs take this approach with Charles? Time will tell.* The Steve Slaton syndrome: Going into last season, it was hard to find something not to like in Slaton. He'd closed out the 2008 season in great fashion and played on a team with a great QB and WR. Although his run in 2008 wasn't as impressive as Charles', he similarly had 21, 21, 26, 24, 18, and 20 carries to close out the year and only ended up topping 20 carries once in 2010. A lot of this was due to his fumbling, and, coincidentally, Charles has had fumbling issues in the past. In 257 career carries, he's fumbled 6 times and lost 5 of them. Again, more reason why the Chiefs might bring someone else in. And, it makes his job security a little more shaky (ala Slaton).Again, I don't think he'll be a "bust," but I also think it's important not to get carried away with his last few games and to realize that things aren't black and white in terms of his situation and the way he'll be used next season. I doubt I'll own him in any leagues, as someone will likely reach high for him, and I'm just not willing to do that.

Awesome post. Buyer beware. I have a hard time thinking that he will live up to his ADP in re-draft and in Dynasty if i owned him and people came a calling, I'd sell high.

 

[xenith]

I like hearing everyone touting Charles as a top 5 back and as a Chief fan I hope that happens. I see him somewhere in the 12-18 range and KC bringing in someone to help him carry the load. Charles getting around 200 carries and another 35-40 receptions.

The run Ds that he faced in his stretch were not good. Teams he faced and rank in yards allowed per game

Oak 28

Pitt 3 (58 yards rush, 2/8 rec, 2TD)

SD 20

Den 26

Buf 30

Clev 28

Cin 8 (102 rush, 3/22 rec) First game without Rey or did he get hurt in this game? Cincy run D has not been the same without him

Den 26

Alot of teams ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league against the run.

The reason Denver's run defense is ranked so low is because they just gave up 259 yards to Charles. Coming into week 17, the Broncos run D was ranked closer to 20th IIRC.And i think you're giving Rey Maualuga a little too much credit for the Bengals successful run D, particularly because he's only playing about 50-65% of the snaps each game.

I hate this logic. The game happened, it goes against their stats. They were highly ranked early in the year and got worse throughout the year. By your logic we should throw out their good games early in the season that brought their average down.ETA: You may very well be right about Rey and the Cincy rush D but what else change from them being dominant against the run from before his injury to the last couple games?

Not at all. Using 'my' logic you should go by the Cheifs opposition's defensive rankings at the time that the teams faced each other, not by their end of the season rankings.In regard to Cincinnati's defense: Rey missed 1 and a half games, that's way too small of a sample size to make any sort of definitive conclusions. In week 16 they still did pretty good against the Cheifs, and in week 17 they really didn't have much to play for as they already had the division locked up which could be why no one on their entire team showed up.

I will take your word on Cincy as I really have not watched much and what you say seems to have some validity.I disagree with your take on using a teams ranking the week they played each other. I guess I feel using a year end total will give you a better idea of how the defense actually performed (i.e. Denver is a bottom 1/3 run defense) than excluding a week which would show them to be statisically better than they actually were. Again, you are using stats from weeks 1-6 that really, in my opinion, have no bearing as to how bad of a run defense they really were.

I'm late joining this discussion.I think you guys might be trying to think of DT Peko, not Rey Mauluga. Peko was the anchor of their rush D, when he was down with injury they were NOT the same D.

Jamaal is a real talent, but on an unpredictable team, new OC, questionable OLine, and big hype, he does have bust written all over if you take him too high. But...for the right price, I think he'll deliver just fine if you wait out the KC offense early next year. Much like this year, they'll have to work thru some issues before any hope of progress can realistically be expected. Low 2nd / High 3rd is as high as I'd take him. Good RB2 with nice upside to surprise.

 

[jackdubl]

There is no one available that the Chiefs could bring in that should change anyone's opinion on Charles. They could bring in LT, Westbrook, Taylor, spend a 3rd round pick...It doesn't matter. Charles is better than any of those players on first, second and third down. He is going to get the ball a ton regardless.

LT won't go to the Chiefs. I think he'd probably retire rather than go to a non-contender that will lose twice to San Diego every season. Heck, if the Chiefs are on his list maybe the Raiders are on his list. Doubtful. As for these other guys, the best anyone will do is be what McGahee was to Rice last year. Didn't kill Rice's value and won't kill Charles's value. When you have as many holes as the Chiefs have and your best player on offense is your RB, you don't go out and make big moves to supplement your RB position.

 

[KoolKat]

You running ocular pat downs around here. Jamaal put it up the nine games he started second most yards in the league to cj2k during that span

 

[TS Garp]

From Todd Haley's press conference at the NFL combine:

Q: After the moves with Larry Johnson, what changed in the running game? Why do you think the running game really turned on toward the end of the year?

A: Well, I think number one, there was a lot of change going on with the team in general. We were involved in a process of kind of getting to know how we would do it, the players getting to know how we wanted it done, and that takes time. I think once Jamaal got in there, he had himself ready to go. He had some opportunities early in training camp and pre-season and even when the season started and he wasn't quite there yet. But when he got the big opportunity, he was ready to go. He took it and ran with it, pardon the pun. Each week he raised the bar.

That's another thing that's got everybody excited. When you see a guy do the things that he did and continue to raise the expectations -- for instance, there was some talk with our local guys of, 'How many touches can this guy get?' We started out saying, '15 to 19.' He ended up surpassing that and ended with his best game of the year in his last game. Again, I just think the guy had prepared well and then seized the opportunity when it came and everybody's excited about the future with Jamaal running the football.

Q: Are you going to try to get him some help this off-season?

A: Yeah, one way or another, we need to get him some help, because you know he's 200 lbs. soaking wet. And though that's something he's working on and he knows it's a critical off-season, I think in this day and age, you have to give somebody some help or the time will be short.

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2010/2/27/13...-todd#storyjump

 

[CanadianNFLJunkie]

The thing you need to add to this is what do you see as "bust"?Living up to his fantasy draft position? If so, what position will that be?Or will he rush for 1,000 yards next year?Or will he have over 5 ypc?

That's the first thing I wondered too. KC as a team is weak, as in will be behind in a lot of games, will be throwing more than they want to but Charles is a good RB. He should get 1,000 yards still and about 6-9 TDs rushing so I guess that would make him a late 2nd/early 3rd rounder???

 

[Bigboy10182000]

He just doesn't pass the eye test for me.

In a 10 team ppr with 4 keepers I just dealt him along with Steve Smith (Giants) for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. Not bad considering they were both FA pick ups for me. Charles looked pretty good but I've seen early rankings that have him around 10 and I think that's a bit to much. I see him more between 13-17.

I feel even better about this now!Anyone else buying into the bust now after KC inked Jones?

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

He just doesn't pass the eye test for me.

In a 10 team ppr with 4 keepers I just dealt him along with Steve Smith (Giants) for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. Not bad considering they were both FA pick ups for me. Charles looked pretty good but I've seen early rankings that have him around 10 and I think that's a bit to much. I see him more between 13-17.

I feel even better about this now!Anyone else buying into the bust now after KC inked Jones?

I actually believe that this will hurt his overall numbers but improve his value.

 

[The Real Yoda]

He just doesn't pass the eye test for me.

In a 10 team ppr with 4 keepers I just dealt him along with Steve Smith (Giants) for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. Not bad considering they were both FA pick ups for me. Charles looked pretty good but I've seen early rankings that have him around 10 and I think that's a bit to much. I see him more between 13-17.

I feel even better about this now!Anyone else buying into the bust now after KC inked Jones?

Nope

 

[Gopher State]

He just doesn't pass the eye test for me.

In a 10 team ppr with 4 keepers I just dealt him along with Steve Smith (Giants) for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. Not bad considering they were both FA pick ups for me. Charles looked pretty good but I've seen early rankings that have him around 10 and I think that's a bit to much. I see him more between 13-17.

I feel even better about this now!Anyone else buying into the bust now after KC inked Jones?

No doubt the Jones deal sealed the deal for Charles to be a bust

 

[munchkin]

Charles wasn't going to carry a heavy load successfully anyway; signing Thomas will help to keep the offense moving (if the O-Line opens holes). More first downs and longer drives equals greater opportunity.

Charlie Weiss will know how to use two backs. Kevin Faulk was not as consistent as he has been over the last few years. Pats fans used to cringe when he was too involved in the offense due to his early fumbling issues. Charles is not built like Smith or Dillon either.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I feel even better about this now!Anyone else buying into the bust now after KC inked Jones?

I actually believe that this will hurt his overall numbers but improve his value.

Im on board with this, although coachspeak in july/august could change my opinion.With a workhorse like TJ there now, its pretty hard to project how many touches he'll get though, so I could still see someone reach for him in the 4th or so and I dont think he'll be worth anything close to that unless the coaches say otherwise regarding his carries related to TJ's

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

He just doesn't pass the eye test for me.

In a 10 team ppr with 4 keepers I just dealt him along with Steve Smith (Giants) for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. Not bad considering they were both FA pick ups for me. Charles looked pretty good but I've seen early rankings that have him around 10 and I think that's a bit to much. I see him more between 13-17.

I feel even better about this now!Anyone else buying into the bust now after KC inked Jones?

I actually believe that this will hurt his overall numbers but improve his value.

I was right about half of the equation. For those who bought into Charles as well, Congrats. For those who didn't. Too bad. Sorry LHUCKS.

 

[Northbound Train]

I love these threads

 

[cvnpoka]

contrary to popular believe, haley does not hate charles. in fact he gives him a lot of leeway and has shown to be committed to getting him the ball. his fumble today was egregious and haley went right back to him.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

He just doesn't pass the eye test for me.

Mediocre talent

He just moved to 1.1 on my draft board.

Actually took him in the 4th but I wouldn't exactly have been disappointed with him if I took him in the first.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

Still rolling.

 

[MrSoup]

I'm here to eat my words.

But I'm also here to say I still don't want to be a Jamaal Charles owner over my current RBs, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy.

 

[Bad_Mo]

Charles is my favorite 3rd round pick - 14 team league. I hope he keeps it rolling along this week with those beautiful long runs.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Buyer beware. I have a hard time thinking that he will live up to his ADP in re-draft and in Dynasty if i owned him and people came a calling, I'd sell high.

And today, he's hit another milestone with our two major metrics: According to DYAR, Charles is the best running back in football this season. While DVOA has suggested that he's been the best per-play back in the NFL for a fair amount of the season, his performance against the Rams pushed him ahead of Arian Foster as the overall leader in rushing DYAR.

 

[The Jacket]

He just doesn't pass the eye test for me.

Mediocre talent

4.34 40/10.2 100M speed, elite balance, moves and shiftiness, good vision, brilliant receiver out of the backfield and in the slot, vastly underrated power, never-say-die attitude (i.e. very tough runner, despite illusions over size). What's not to like, exactly?

I admit, I didn't know exactly what was in store for Charles, what with Jones and the shoulder surgery, but this statement was always--and of course remains--one of the dumbest I have ever read on a sports forum. Again, regardless of what you thought he'd produce, there was absolutely no question about his talent. Not one. Nothing. Anyone who watched him at Texas or early in his career could see that within just a few carries. He has a certain fluidity in his running style that I haven't seen in a few years. That's a sense of it being effortless to him. He routinely breaks long runs, great moves, whatever, and it doesn't even look like he's running full speed or, frankly, trying very hard.Mediocre talent. JFC.