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Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Jay Cutler Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

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[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
From week 11 on, Cutler only had one regular season game where he had 30 or more passing attempts. Previous to week 11, he had 30+ pass attempts five times. The o-line had trouble protecting the Bears franchise QB and their gameplan seemed to shift slightly away from a typical Martz approach of airing it out in favor of something more balanced.

The big question to me is; "Will Martz revert back to his old ways and pass a ton in 2011?" I tend to think he will, unless the o-line struggles mightily again. But until the line proves incapable of protecting Cutler, I think Martz will do what Martz always does... lean heavily on the passing game.

Attempts: 309

Comps: 510

Pass Yds: 3675

Pass TDs: 26

INTs: 18

Rush Yds: 200

Rush TDs: 1

 
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Jay Cutler took a lot of heat in Chicago after getting injured in the playoffs and missing the rest of the game. For whatever reason, Cutler doesn't seem to be accepted in Chicago and the fit just doesn't seem to be a natural one. I think Cutler will do OK because he's an above average quarterback but I just don't think he finishes his career as a Chicago Bear.

The Green Bay Packers are clearly the team to beat in the NFC North but after that, it's wide open as the Vikings look to be a team on the decline, the Lions are pushing to finally win 1/2 their games in a season and then you have the Bears. Is this a team that will fight back and push to make another playoff team or will it hide behind Cutler's mistakes every week and just blame him until he's run out of town. I lean toward the latter and think the Bears struggle a little more this year, which will mean Cutler will too.

3200 yards, 20 Td's and 20 INT's, 1 rushing TD and 3 fumbles.

 
Jay Cutler took a lot of heat in Chicago after getting injured in the playoffs and missing the rest of the game. For whatever reason, Cutler doesn't seem to be accepted in Chicago and the fit just doesn't seem to be a natural one. I think Cutler will do OK because he's an above average quarterback but I just don't think he finishes his career as a Chicago Bear.The Green Bay Packers are clearly the team to beat in the NFC North but after that, it's wide open as the Vikings look to be a team on the decline, the Lions are pushing to finally win 1/2 their games in a season and then you have the Bears. Is this a team that will fight back and push to make another playoff team or will it hide behind Cutler's mistakes every week and just blame him until he's run out of town. I lean toward the latter and think the Bears struggle a little more this year, which will mean Cutler will too.3200 yards, 20 Td's and 20 INT's, 1 rushing TD and 3 fumbles.
Im a transplant bears fan, but I listen to a lot of chicago talk radio and I got a very different feeling from the fans and players about jay. I think they respect him and believe that he did his best to play in the game. I got a feeling of outrage at the people that questioned his toughness more than anything from fans. More importantly, I think they recognize how much of a beating he took last year. Guys like urlacher dont speak out on your behalf multiple times unless they mean it. i think at the begining of the year the tean didn't trust him, but the green bay game may have changed a lot in a good way for the team (as a team building).I think the team will rally behind jay and he will take a step forward in martz's offense. I think the line will improve under tice. I expect cutler to be well on hisway back to his denver numbers (i also expect a decdnt wr to be signed).
 
The Bears finished 28th in passing yards, but 11th in ypa. It seems Cutler could thrive if given some better help. He did get beat up last year, getting sacked 52 times, which was the most in the NFL. The Bears drafted OT Gabe Carimi in round 1 to help protect Jay. I can see an uptick this season for the Bears passing offense this year.

In Cutler's first year in Chi, he had 555 attempts, last year just 432. I can see them coming in somewhere in the middle.

296 completions out of 490 attempts, 3675 yards, 25 TD, 17 INT, 40 carries for 170 yards, 1 TD, ~ qb 10

 
4100 yards, 30 TD's, 20 INT's

I think that he takes a step forward in his second year under Martz. This would not be a career year for him, in 2008 he had 4500 yards and 25 TD's.

 
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I'm down on Cutler again. Chicago allows tons of pressure even though they ranked 4th for the most amount of blockers kept in per pass play, the Bears gave up the 3rd highest amount of pressure.

ProfootballFocus.com:

"Chicago who, despite the number of blockers they added, still walked away giving up the third highest amount of pressure. While their halfbacks helped out, the Bears thinking Brandon Manumaleuna could block like a tackle was folly. The tight end gave up pressure on 12.37% of pass plays he was blocking for, a huge number. If you’re going to keep men in to assist with protection, they need to do better than that."

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/06/08/extra-blockers/

Keeping in all those blockers seems like it would prevent Martz from running his system the way he has for other teams. Now Martz may say "screw it, if those extra blockers are so in effective then we'll go with minimal protection and have more people running routes." The problem with that is Martz system starting QBs, more often than not, usually don't stay healthy enough to play 16 games.(Since Martz has been a HC or OC, his starting QBs have played 16 games 4 times out of 11 seasons).

I don't see how Chicago the bad blocking will keep Cutler healthy and allow Martz to run his system like it's supposed to.

3200 22 TDS 20 Ints

 
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I admit it, I don't like Jay Cutler. I think that he has an elitist attitude and I am generally turned off of him based primarily because of this.

I also hear that he has a history of not being a good teammate and I think that Chicago is primed for a huge let down of a season. They overperformed a year ago. They are in a suddenly improved division and I fully believe that the Bears have a really good chance to implode in 2011 and Cutler could be leading the charge, or rather retreat.

I am not a big fan of his receivers either, so it is easy for me to downgrade his and their chances for the upcoming season.

Jay Cutler 16 gms 290 of 490 59.2% 3430 yds 7.0 ypa 24 TDs 24 ints 180 rush yds & 1 TD

 
Can Jay Cutler stay upright for 16 games? Will we see improvement in the Bears OL? Will we see consistency from the Bears WRs? Lot of question marks surround Cutler. Not convinced that Cutler will have a big year, but he certainly capable of it in a Martz offense. Don't want to rely on him as my starter, but he is a great upside QB2.

3600 yards passing, 24TD, 18Int

125 yards rushing, 1TD

 
In Cutler's first season, Chicago threw the ball 563 times (8th in the league) and ran it 373 times (29th in the league). In his second season, Chicago threw the ball 466 times (32nd in the league) and ran it 414 times (21st in the league). Presumably this had mostly to do with the fact that in 2009, the Bears were 21st in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed and improved in 2010 to 4th and 9th, respectively.

I'll take the middle ground and assume 500 passing attempts in 16 games. His career average for yards per passing attempt is 7.2. In Chicago, he has averaged 7.0 ypa, but averaged 7.6 last year. He averaged 7.4 ypa in his Denver career. I think 7.4 is reasonable to project for this year; a slight regression from last year but still above his career average. That means 3700 passing yards.

Interesting that 3 people have projected 30 or more passing TDs for Cutler; he has never had more than 27, despite having seasons with 555 and 616 passing attempts. And as of right now, his receivers haven't improved over last year, so I don't see much of a reason to expect a major improvement in this area. His career TD percentage is 4.7%, but it has been 5.1% in Chicago and 5.3% last season. I'll go with 5.1%, which projects to 26 passing TDs.

His career interception percentage is 3.6%, but it has been 4.3% in Chicago. Last year, it was 3.7%. I think he'll face more unfavorable passing situations this year, which will push that back up to 4.0%. That means 20 interceptions.

He has averaged ~200 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD in his 4 seasons as a starter, with little deviation. I see no reason to project much of a change there.

This results in these projections:

500 passing attempts, 3700 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 20 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD

 
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Folks can talk about the o-line, the coaches, and teammates trust all they want. Greg Olsen, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, Devin Aromashadu. See any #1 wideouts here because I don't. Ultimately I don't share the optimism others seem to have for Jay until the Bears address this problem via free-agency.

 
Folks can talk about the O-Line, the coaches, and the teammates trust all they want.

Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Greg Olsen, Earl Bennett, Devin Aromashodu.

Do you see any #1's here because I don't. Unfortunately being a Bears fan, I don't share the same optimism about Cutler as others do until the Bears address this problem via free-agency.

 
Folks can talk about the O-Line, the coaches, and the teammates trust all they want. Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Greg Olsen, Earl Bennett, Devin Aromashodu.Do you see any #1's here because I don't. Unfortunately being a Bears fan, I don't share the same optimism about Cutler as others do until the Bears address this problem via free-agency.
How do you really feel about this?
 
I hate to echo stuff that has already been said, but last year was a really weird year for a Martz offense. Finishing dead last in pass attempts won't happen again. Given Cutler was on pace for over 3600 yds even with that weird year should yield a lot of optimism for 2011, but that has not been the case.

The fact that the guy finished as QB15 last year on a team that was dead last in pass attempts and he missed a game screams value to me. I think, in the second year under Martz, that this offense takes a couple steps forward. It really only needs to inch forward for him to outperform his draft position.

Interesting note: Cutler has finished 4th, 7th, 6th, and 6th in QB rushing in the last 4 years, staying pretty darn consistent and with an average of 203/1.25. That's not a bad bonus.

Below are my very conservative projections (dropping ypa to 7.4 and less than 33 pass att/gm):

525 att, 315 comp, 3885 yds, 28 TD, 19 INT

50 rush, 200 yds, 1 TD

 
The Bears finished 28th in passing yards, but 11th in ypa. It seems Cutler could thrive if given some better help. He did get beat up last year, getting sacked 52 times, which was the most in the NFL. The Bears drafted OT Gabe Carimi in round 1 to help protect Jay. I can see an uptick this season for the Bears passing offense this year.In Cutler's first year in Chi, he had 555 attempts, last year just 432. I can see them coming in somewhere in the middle.296 completions out of 490 attempts, 3675 yards, 25 TD, 17 INT, 40 carries for 170 yards, 1 TD, ~ qb 10
That seems about right. Could be better, could be worse, but you have to be a homer or hater to much either way.I can't go higher on ratings since after Olson and Forte they don't have any even good recievers (none, for example, that would even be a WR4 for the Packers), Cutler is not a tremendously accurate passer (name another NFC North QB with worse mechanics) and adding one O lineman in the draft doesnt improve a line that much.
 
In each of his seasons in Chicago, Cutler has had eight games with one or zero TDs. That's not very good in a starting FF QB but I wonder if it is significant vs. other QBs. Like, Roethlisberger had seven such games in 12 starts last year. I should look at that sometime before the fall.

If the Bears signed Sidney Rice I would be much more confident in drafting Cutler for my teams. He's so inconsistent though. For now I have to label him undraftable as a fantasy starter even though he always ends the season with pretty good numbers.

 
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In each of his seasons in Chicago, Cutler has had eight games with one or zero TDs. That's not very good in a starting FF QB but I wonder if it is significant vs. other QBs. Like, Roethlisberger had seven such games in 12 starts last year. I should look at that sometime before the fall.If the Bears signed Sidney Rice I would be much more confident in drafting Cutler for my teams. He's so inconsistent though. For now I have to label him undraftable as a fantasy starter even though he always ends the season with pretty good numbers.
Until you hit 24 td passes, every qb will have at least 8 games of only 1td or less. And if that qb has a couple of 3td plus games, they will have more 1td or less games. Very few qb are elite enough to score 2td a game consistently.While a real WR like Rice would be good, I still think it would help more if Cutler managed to learn good technique rather than leaning on physical capabilties
 
11 or 12 guys had that many TDs, so at best that places him as low-end QB1. He's also middle-of-the-road in yards and top 10 in picks the last two years so it's not like he's making up FF points there.

He's been overdrafted in 2009 and 2010, including by me. So I'm done with him as a starting option. He'd make one of the better backup options though.

 
The way they aggressively went after Cutler, gotta think they'll do the same if a big name WR hits the market... maybe S Rice.

 
The Bears finished 28th in passing yards, but 11th in ypa. It seems Cutler could thrive if given some better help. He did get beat up last year, getting sacked 52 times, which was the most in the NFL. The Bears drafted OT Gabe Carimi in round 1 to help protect Jay. I can see an uptick this season for the Bears passing offense this year.

In Cutler's first year in Chi, he had 555 attempts, last year just 432. I can see them coming in somewhere in the middle.

296 completions out of 490 attempts, 3675 yards, 25 TD, 17 INT, 40 carries for 170 yards, 1 TD, ~ qb 10
That seems about right. Could be better, could be worse, but you have to be a homer or hater to much either way.

I can't go higher on ratings since after Olson and Forte they don't have any even good recievers (none, for example, that would even be a WR4 for the Packers), Cutler is not a tremendously accurate passer (name another NFC North QB with worse mechanics) and adding one O lineman in the draft doesnt improve a line that much.
Knox had 930 yards in his second year(first year as a full time starter). Lots of receivers take time to develop, there is no reason to believe that knox cannot be a true #1.
 
Roy Williams and Mike Furrey was all it took for Jon Kitna to finish QB6 in 2006 with Mike Martz. And that was with Kitna throwing more INT than TD.

The WR talent isn't great right now, but even if they don't add anyone in free agency, I still feel good about Cutler's chances of blowing away his ADP.

 
FF Ninja said:
Roy Williams and Mike Furrey was all it took for Jon Kitna to finish QB6 in 2006 with Mike Martz. And that was with Kitna throwing more INT than TD.

The WR talent isn't great right now, but even if they don't add anyone in free agency, I still feel good about Cutler's chances of blowing away his ADP.

Its not the wrs that hurts cutler the most......its the crappy o line, that is a poor fit for a martz offense.

That offense calls for mostly 15 to 20 yard routes.......in which you better have some guys that can pass block. Perhaps carimi can solidify the line there.

I think the 2010 bears are the epitome of the 2009 bengals.......winning games they should not have. I think they regress this year, but I think cutler has his share of good games, some decent games, some poor games, and some garbage scores and yards......

3890 yards

27 tds

22 ints
 
it will depend on the o line because if he gets hit and destroyed and blown up about 1000 times like last season i dont think he will make it through as healthy as he did last year which was pretty amazing when you think about the times he got clobbered crushasaurus rex style last year and only got hurt in the last game

 
'FF Ninja said:
Roy Williams and Mike Furrey was all it took for Jon Kitna to finish QB6 in 2006 with Mike Martz. And that was with Kitna throwing more INT than TD.The WR talent isn't great right now, but even if they don't add anyone in free agency, I still feel good about Cutler's chances of blowing away his ADP.
Its not the wrs that hurts cutler the most......its the crappy o line, that is a poor fit for a martz offense.That offense calls for mostly 15 to 20 yard routes.......in which you better have some guys that can pass block. Perhaps carimi can solidify the line there.I think the 2010 bears are the epitome of the 2009 bengals.......winning games they should not have. I think they regress this year, but I think cutler has his share of good games, some decent games, some poor games, and some garbage scores and yards......3890 yards27 tds22 ints
That's a good point. But keep in mind that Chicago did draft a tackle in the first round, albeit a late pick (29th), and Carimi was highly touted (not expected to be around that late). They are not expected to lose anyone - 99% chance Kruetz will be back. If anything there is chatter they will pursue o-line in free agency. But given how bad they were last year, it is hard to imagine they get any worse this year...
 
'FF Ninja said:
Roy Williams and Mike Furrey was all it took for Jon Kitna to finish QB6 in 2006 with Mike Martz. And that was with Kitna throwing more INT than TD.The WR talent isn't great right now, but even if they don't add anyone in free agency, I still feel good about Cutler's chances of blowing away his ADP.
Its not the wrs that hurts cutler the most......its the crappy o line, that is a poor fit for a martz offense.That offense calls for mostly 15 to 20 yard routes.......in which you better have some guys that can pass block. Perhaps carimi can solidify the line there.I think the 2010 bears are the epitome of the 2009 bengals.......winning games they should not have. I think they regress this year, but I think cutler has his share of good games, some decent games, some poor games, and some garbage scores and yards......3890 yards27 tds22 ints
That's a good point. But keep in mind that Chicago did draft a tackle in the first round, albeit a late pick (29th), and Carimi was highly touted (not expected to be around that late). They are not expected to lose anyone - 99% chance Kruetz will be back. If anything there is chatter they will pursue o-line in free agency. But given how bad they were last year, it is hard to imagine they get any worse this year...
According to pro football focus they were the worst pass blocking unit in the league last season. They cannot get any worse.
31. Chicago Bears (2009 Rank: 26th)Run Rank 21st, Pass Rank 32nd, Penalties Rank 31stOn the plus side, Jay Cutler is somehow still walking. Any lineman who played considerable snaps graded worse than -10.0 in our ratings, with one at -20.4 (Chris Williams), another at -31.6 (Frank Omiyale) and the worst at -42.7 (J’Marcus Webb). Brutal blocking in pretty much every respect that you makes you appreciate the work of the skill players all the more.Best Player: With a -12.4 grade, Roberto Garza was the ‘best’ of a bad bunch.Biggest Concern: You’d expect J’Marcus Webb to improve a little in year number two, but he has a long way to go. Let’s hope Gabe Carimi is NFL ready.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/07/12/2010-offensive-line-rankings-part-1/
 
Keep in mind that the bears line looked a lot better the 2nd half of the year. Tice is a really good line coach and seems to be able to judge talent very well also. Moving williams to guard and adding carimi at rt should help them a lot. Tice also really likes webb at lt.

Not saying they will have a great oline, but I could see them being at least decent.

 

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