sho nuff
Footballguy
Yet...being bigger and faster and having that big play ability had him drafted where by NFL teams as compared to Adams?
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Jeff Janis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Brewtown
- Start date
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Little bit of crazy going on in this thread. Does Janis have a chance of being really good someday? Of course.
Will Janis take over the #3 WR role this year, bumping aside Adams? Highly unlikely.
Did we see anything last year to tell us Janis has a high likelihood of taking over for Adams this year? Nope.
Drafted higher? Adams
Made big plays in real NFL games? Adams
Visibly earned trust of ARod last year? Adams
Etc etc etc. again, could Janis be the more important player this year? Sure.
Odds that happens? Very very low.
Evidence it will happen? We have none.
Will Janis take over the #3 WR role this year, bumping aside Adams? Highly unlikely.
Did we see anything last year to tell us Janis has a high likelihood of taking over for Adams this year? Nope.
Drafted higher? Adams
Made big plays in real NFL games? Adams
Visibly earned trust of ARod last year? Adams
Etc etc etc. again, could Janis be the more important player this year? Sure.
Odds that happens? Very very low.
Evidence it will happen? We have none.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't think Janis has a snowball's chance in hell of passing Adams.
cr8f
Footballguy
Mike McCarthy on practices, rookies and Janis.
On getting Montgomery up to speed... Just sticking to the format in place. We'll have a plan when he gets back here. Stanford on the quarter schedule.
On Janis' development... Jeff Janis has definitely been moving forward. I thought he definitely came on last year. Still some things fundamentally he needs to work on but any time you get reps with the 1's and Aaron Rodgers, it definitely boosts your confidence.
On gauging rookies' progress... The mental, the cohesiveness they're able to perform with their teammates. By position, by group. On a personal level, you're teaching them their job responsibility and things they need to do every day. We've had four practices and they're doing a good job. It usually takes a week or two for your team to learn how to practice. This is a CBA practice, not real football yet.
On getting Montgomery up to speed... Just sticking to the format in place. We'll have a plan when he gets back here. Stanford on the quarter schedule.
On Janis' development... Jeff Janis has definitely been moving forward. I thought he definitely came on last year. Still some things fundamentally he needs to work on but any time you get reps with the 1's and Aaron Rodgers, it definitely boosts your confidence.
On gauging rookies' progress... The mental, the cohesiveness they're able to perform with their teammates. By position, by group. On a personal level, you're teaching them their job responsibility and things they need to do every day. We've had four practices and they're doing a good job. It usually takes a week or two for your team to learn how to practice. This is a CBA practice, not real football yet.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Exactly.. It is just my opinion, perhaps I came a little matter of fact with it. But to me I didn't see anything special with Adams, at all. Perhaps (and likely) it is good enough to entrench himself as the WR3 for the foreseeable future. The relatively poor AYA when throwing to him is evidence that he wasn't anything special and I'd argue that there were probably 10 rookies WRs last year that could of matched or surpassed his production with ~60 targets in that offense.
I don't think there was a situation last season where Janis could of realistically got playing time, based on his draft position. It was and is an uphill battle, but I believe in the talent and the praise that he has continually drawn from coaching staffs.
A realistic situation i'm positing here is that there is an injury to top 3 and Janis gets his opportunity. And when he does, he's going to excel because he's an electric player with a lot of great players around him. If say Adams pulls a hammy and is out for a 2-4 week stretch, I don't think it is crazy to say that Janis could over take him. I really don't.
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Longtucky Lemmings
Footballguy
I'll tell you one thing, Aaron Rodgers must be one excited fella to have all this talent to toss the rock to
Sabertooth
Footballguy
jtd13
Footballguy
I kind of doubt that draft position has much bearing on who plays over who late into the season. Early on, sure, but if Janis was flashing in practice more than Adams all season, he'd be in the game more late in the season.Don't get me wrong, I like Janis and have him stashed in a couple places, but I will give more credence to the guy that got on the field more, caught clutch passes late in games (Miami, NE), and made multiple tough catches and broken tackles in the playoffs.
Also, while Adams is not the 99th percentile athletic freak that Janis is, he has more than good enough size and athleticism.
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tone1oc
Footballguy
Draft position certainly matters, and it may be one of the reasons I'm completely wrong. But the guy who is drafted in 2nd round is always going to get the first shot right away over a guy drafted in late rounds. You have to see what you have, and what I saw was a very pedestrian WR that had some moments with pretty good opportunity (63tgts) in a great offense.
He is indeed no slouch athletically, and I was pretty high on him coming into 2014. I've cooled largely because of these numbers...
Rodgers 2014 AYA (> 40tgts)
Jordy Nelson: 11.7
Randall Cobb: 11.5
Eddie Lacy: 9.3
Andrew Quarless: 7.3
Davante Adams: 7.2
Since 2010, only Kuhn, Starks & Boykin have sported a lower AYA than Adams. That's two RBs & a mediocre (albeit serviceable) WR in Boykin. Even James Jones was north of 10 in his 134 targets. The fact that both James Jones & Jarrett Boykin both had varying stretches of fantasy relevance proves that production as WR3 with ARod is very attainable, even for marginal NFL WRs. I think he's definitely better than Boykin but likely just another James Jones.
The question is, will he take a giant step? I don't think so. It will likely still be enough to hold on to the #3 job this year as I said, but in no way does he have an iron grip on it.
He is indeed no slouch athletically, and I was pretty high on him coming into 2014. I've cooled largely because of these numbers...
Rodgers 2014 AYA (> 40tgts)
Jordy Nelson: 11.7
Randall Cobb: 11.5
Eddie Lacy: 9.3
Andrew Quarless: 7.3
Davante Adams: 7.2
Since 2010, only Kuhn, Starks & Boykin have sported a lower AYA than Adams. That's two RBs & a mediocre (albeit serviceable) WR in Boykin. Even James Jones was north of 10 in his 134 targets. The fact that both James Jones & Jarrett Boykin both had varying stretches of fantasy relevance proves that production as WR3 with ARod is very attainable, even for marginal NFL WRs. I think he's definitely better than Boykin but likely just another James Jones.
The question is, will he take a giant step? I don't think so. It will likely still be enough to hold on to the #3 job this year as I said, but in no way does he have an iron grip on it.
jtd13
Footballguy
I don't think the AYA stat is any sort of end all be all. It shows he wasn't efficient. I would expect relatively high inefficiency from a rookie who is on the field a ton from his 3rd game on. The fact that he even got on the field so early over other talented wrs is a credit, even if it lowers his metric numbers.
Regardless, I don't want to keep going in circles with the argument, so let's just agree to disagree. I am excited for Adams based on what i saw, and I'm excited to see Janis get a shot.
sho nuff
Footballguy
He can't?
Daniels? Raji? Matthews? Collins?
Hayward? Shields? SHould I keep going?
That it has not always worked is another question...there was also a time that he could not draft an offensive lineman to save his life...
tone1oc
Footballguy
I agree that AYA is by no means an end all be all, but I do feel it has substantial value when applied to elite QBs. To me its a good litmus test because when a player is getting a pass from the best, it establishes a safe baseline and removes most QB variance. If I was comparing AYA of Sammy Watkins with the dumpster fire of QBs & offense it would be pretty useless.
At any rate, agree to disagree and we'll see how it plays out.
At any rate, agree to disagree and we'll see how it plays out.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
sho nuff
Footballguy
Shields isn't talented?
Mike Daniels isn't talented?
Nick Collins wasn't talented?
Seriously...you say some crazy things...but man...
sharptongued1
Footballguy
Yeah, Nick Collins was a stud. Three 2nd team all-pros already under his belt and he was just hitting his prime. Such a weird, freak injury at that. Buttcheek to the face.
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cr8f
Footballguy
He seems adept at getting LB'ers late in the draft but his trade up for Clay was good too. A 2nd OLB opposite Clay never worked out and there have been quite a few D line failures.
But in the NFL a 50% success rate is good.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Collins was a stud. But none of these guys is in a level with Rodgers, Sitton, Jordy, Cobb, Lacy, or even Bulaga.
cr8f
Footballguy
Brandon Jackson was a bad 2nd round pick as were Worthy, Brian Brohm and Pat Lee, but Lacy, Jennings, Jordy and Cobb were great ones. Finley was a great 3rd. Desmond Bishop and Brad Jones were good late round picks.
Rodgers and Bulaga fell into his lap.
Wish he could draft linemen like he does WR's. His record on CB's isn't great either. I like Rollins basketball background to be an eventual good player.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Mike Daniels?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Justin Harrell? Jerel Worthy?
sho nuff
Footballguy
Mike Daniels and Shields are easily on par with Bulaga...and Daniels is making his way up that list as well.
But yeah...not shocking there are not going to be a lot of picks that will be on the level with Aaron freakin Rodgers...if that is all you are looking for, there is not a GM in the league drafting talent like that from late in the draft or even early in the draft.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I guess I kind of attribute Daniels to "throw enough crap at the wall and something will stick." But he's be no means a dominant player.
He was the third D lineman drafted that year.
He was the third D lineman drafted that year.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'm talking pro bowlers. Stars, perenial nightmares that opposing coaches account for. Thompson has drafted exactly 1 on defense....ever.
sho nuff
Footballguy
So when TT hits...its because he threw enough crap at the wall and something stuck...when he misses its because he is bad at drafting on D.
Guess what...much of the draft...especially TT's philosophy, is to acquire picks and take several at positions to create competition and hope that about half develop.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I agree and it's a good philosophy. I think Ted understands it well. But I just wish he didn't burn so many high picks on guys that stink on D.
sharptongued1
Footballguy
Again, Nick Collins was this. He made as many Pro-Bowls himself as Cobb and Nelson have combined.
cr8f
Footballguy
Charles Woodson was a good signee, you omit him because he wasn't drafted? They worked him in and developed him too and he was a nightmare for opposing teams.
Packer pro bowlers on defense signed or drafted by TT.
Woodson 4 times
Collins 3
Clay Matthews 5 times
BJ Raji 2011
Shields 2014
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KingPrawn
Footballguy
I agree. If you want to discuss the merits of Ted Thompson's ability to draft offensive or defensive players can it at least be taken to the Packers thread? It would be the courteous thing to do. Here's the link for it:
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/702701-official-green-bay-packers-offseason-thread-v-2014/
cr8f
Footballguy
Mike McCarthy today on Jeff Janis. Don't waive Devante Adams just yet.
On Jeff Janis.... Jeff is developing. He's getting a lot of opportunities. He's done some good things on special teams. Some things specific to his skill level, he's good at. Some things he needs to improve on. He's catching the ball better. He can get better fundamentally. Jeff is really improving; gotten a lot of quality work.
FantasySeer
Footballguy
since the Adams thread on another board also devolved into Adams v Janis, here's a post summing up my thoughts on it
cr8f
Footballguy
Adams is entrenched the #3, especially after last night, but think Montgomery is the #4 at this point. Janis dropped one last night he should have caught and Ty Montgomery has been catching just about everything thrown his way.
So the #5 should be between Janis, Abbrederis, Myles White and several un-drafted rookies who haven't done a lot yet.
So the #5 should be between Janis, Abbrederis, Myles White and several un-drafted rookies who haven't done a lot yet.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
YOu'd have to think Janis with Abbrederis having the concussion issues. I like that lineup top to bottom.
Zyphros
Footballguy
cr8f
Footballguy
From last night.
WR Myles White: Heading into camp, the speculation was Green Bay might keep six receivers, so long as Jared Abbrederis had shown that he was past last year’s torn ACL. With Abbrederis still out with a concussion, the Packers might keep only five — with White making a run at Janis for that spot.
White’s in his third year and it shows. He’s more polished than any of this year’s undrafted rookies. And he’s caught just about everything thrown his way — unlike Janis, who had an awful drop on Saturday. On a fourth-and-2, he easily beat HaHa Clinton-Dix for an easy conversion. He also hauled in a touchdown pass from Tolzien.
WR Myles White: Heading into camp, the speculation was Green Bay might keep six receivers, so long as Jared Abbrederis had shown that he was past last year’s torn ACL. With Abbrederis still out with a concussion, the Packers might keep only five — with White making a run at Janis for that spot.
White’s in his third year and it shows. He’s more polished than any of this year’s undrafted rookies. And he’s caught just about everything thrown his way — unlike Janis, who had an awful drop on Saturday. On a fourth-and-2, he easily beat HaHa Clinton-Dix for an easy conversion. He also hauled in a touchdown pass from Tolzien.
Faust
MVP
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Zyphros
Footballguy
So their posting is about phrases said back from the combine as current? Oh he said it 4 months ago so it must still be true? How about the current blurbs that say Janis HAS taken steps forward this offseason.
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Casting Couch
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Yeah, I was on board but I'm dropping in leagues where I need a slot at this point.
