Tournament of Champions preview
The most anticipated ToC ever! Cannot wait to see how this plays out. I’ll be pulling for Matt Amodio, but Amy and Rowan are definitely worthy are strong contenders. I don’t think Matteo stands a chance. Let’s run down the players (most of this is copy/pasta from Jeopardyfan.com.)
2022 Tournament Of Champions
Amy Schneider
Andrew He
Brian Chang
Christine Whelchel
Courtney Shah
Eric Ahasic
Jackie Kelly
Jaskaran Singh
Jessica Stephens
John Focht
Jonathan Fisher
Margaret Shelton
Matt Amodio
Mattea Roach
Maureen O'Neil
Megan Wachspress
Rowan Ward
Ryan Long
Sam Buttrey
Tyler Rhode
Zach Newkirk
Monday, October 31:
Ryan Long
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
405 correct, 64 incorrect
12/19 on rebound attempts (on 55 rebound opportunities)
42.68% in first on buzzer (411/963)
14/22 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $23,000)
8/17 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $16,788
Predictions:
48.647% to win quarterfinal
13.236% to win semifinal
2.898% to win tournament
Megan Wachspress
Berkeley, California
112 correct, 31 incorrect
7/8 on rebound attempts (on 32 rebound opportunities)
31.57% in first on buzzer (125/396)
2/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $3,000)
5/7 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $9,314
Predictions:
26.806% to win quarterfinal
3.956% to win semifinal
0.229% to win tournament
Maureen O’Neil
Cambridge, Massachusetts
73 correct, 15 incorrect
10/13 on rebound attempts (on 25 rebound opportunities)
26.02% in first on buzzer (70/269)
1/1 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $2,000)
3/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $7,120
Predictions:
24.547% to win quarterfinal
3.459% to win semifinal
0.171% to win tournament
(Andy = JF Analysis)
Andy’s Thoughts: My first thought here was that Ryan Long got a favorable draw, playing against Megan Wachspress and Maureen O’Neil. But then I got to thinking further, and my conclusion is that this is probably the most deceptively intriguing matchup of the entire round. On paper, Ryan is the strongest of the three players, and I think that Ryan has the best chance of leading going into Final Jeopardy. However—and this is where it gets incredibly interesting—knowing what we know about Ryan’s and Megan’s respective Final Jeopardy! strategies, a contested Final Jeopardy! in this match is going to be one of the most intriguing betting situations in the entire history of the show. Megan’s strategy has been specifically “bet to stay ahead of the leader by $2 if the leader bets to cover”. However, with Ryan, “if the leader bets to cover” is certainly not a guaranteed situation. Any non-runaway game going into Final is going to be a “grab your popcorn” moment for the betting wonks. Ryan is the favorite to make it out, but things are certainly far from guaranteed, with a high likelihood of there being very angry know-it-alls on the Internet who think they know what to do, but don’t quite understand every nuance.
Tuesday, November 1:
Jonathan Fisher
(originally) Coral Gables, Florida
306 correct, 38 incorrect
12/14 on rebound attempts (on 45 rebound opportunities)
44.05% in first on buzzer (300/681)
12/18 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $12,400)
8/12 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $20,167
Predictions:
30.242% to win quarterfinal
7.572% to win semifinal
1.292% to win tournament
Andrew He
San Francisco, California
159 correct, 19 incorrect
11/12 on rebound attempts (on 23 rebound opportunities)
43.57% in first on buzzer (149/342)
7/11 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $37,800)
3/6 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $21,533
Predictions:
45.431% to win quarterfinal
15.904% to win semifinal
5.573% to win tournament
Christine Whelchel
Spring Hill, Tennessee
114 correct, 15 incorrect
8/9 on rebound attempts (on 29 rebound opportunities)
37.46% in first on buzzer (106/283)
3/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$8,500)
4/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,280
Predictions:
24.327% to win quarterfinal
4.678% to win semifinal
0.511% to win tournament
Andy’s Thoughts: The numbers say that Andrew He is the favorite, and he certainly would have been seeded higher had he not lost to Amy Schneider in one of the most significant Final Jeopardy! clues ever. However, he does have some weaknesses—Jonathan is stronger in Final Jeopardy. Plus, Christine comes in with absolutely nothing to lose—though, I will say that I think she got an unfavorable draw. A movie- or theatre-heavy board will mean an advantage to Jonathan, but Jonathan could very well be the first super-champion to fall if things suit Andrew better.
Wednesday, November 2:
Brian Chang
Chicago, Illinois
184 correct, 21 incorrect
5/6 on rebound attempts (on 29 rebound opportunities)
39.96% in first on buzzer (181/453)
8/10 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $14,500)
5/8 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $16,800
Predictions:
33.004% to win quarterfinal
7.592% to win semifinal
1.164% to win tournament
Tyler Rhode
New York, New York
131 correct, 13 incorrect
7/8 on rebound attempts (on 18 rebound opportunities)
37.54% in first on buzzer (128/341)
2/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $7,000)
4/6 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,767
Predictions:
31.998% to win quarterfinal
7.377% to win semifinal
1.084% to win tournament
Margaret Shelton
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
100 correct, 14 incorrect
13/13 on rebound attempts (on 30 rebound opportunities)
33.21% in first on buzzer (91/274)
4/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $12,100)
3/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $13,920
Predictions:
34.958% to win quarterfinal
8.674% to win semifinal
1.509% to win tournament
Andy’s Thoughts: If this were the best-of-seven final, the prediction model would very much lean toward a 6- or 7-game series. Tyler is slightly better at the bottom of the board, while Margaret was slightly more aggressive on Daily Doubles in her run. Brian’s got the best balance between everything. In all honesty, I think this game is the very definition of “too close to call”. In a note that will make Lilly happy, but not me, Brian’s contestant photograph does not have him wearing a quarter-zip sweater.