Concept Coop
Footballguy
Reminds of the beautiful Foster/Tate thread of year's past. Or Bradshaw/Jacobs.
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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter zed2283
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LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Hill's style looks a bit like DeMarco Murray.
bill bates hits hard
Footballguy
Gio dudes are sore here. Sorry guys.
bill bates hits hard
Footballguy
If gio was getting the Lions share why did they draft a RB in the 2nd round?
I don't blame Gio guys for getting stressed out and defensive. You spent a high draft pick that may turn out to have been better used on someone else.
Who knows time will tell.
I don't blame Gio guys for getting stressed out and defensive. You spent a high draft pick that may turn out to have been better used on someone else.
Who knows time will tell.
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LittlePhatty
Footballguy
White Lightning
Footballguy
I come to the board to be informed, not coddled. My point is this: the statement that Gio and Hill will split the workload comes from a bengals website writer (a writer who could not get a job with the city paper or a national outfit) who is speculating based on his evaluation of a couple pre-season snaps. This comment is not attributed to any named/unnamed sources and is directly contradicted by the heavy first team work load that Gio has gotten so far this preseason. Like I said before, as a Gio owner, I'm a little worried. But the "Gio looks terrible" and this is "RBBC" comments are a bit much.
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bill bates hits hard
Footballguy
Hmm well then wouldn't they use a high pick elsewhere and pick a back in the 4th like the browns?
Lacy was taken in 2nd. These days the 2nd is where teams jump up to get their primary. Teams don't waste a 2nd on "back ups".
Lacy was taken in 2nd. These days the 2nd is where teams jump up to get their primary. Teams don't waste a 2nd on "back ups".
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I go to LSU and live in Baton Rouge and have seen this kid play since High School. He is the REAL DEAL. To put it in perspective he got arrested his senior year of high school for diddling a underage girl at school. This happened right after he signed his LOI. As a result he was unable to be a part of his recruiting class and had to sit out a year. The next year Miles still gave him a scholarship and once he showed up all the other backs were playing second fiddle. He is one of the few backs at LSU that wasn't subjected to Miles dreaded RBBC approach, which i feel wasted the talent of some really good backs LSU has had. I want to say he averaged close to 7 ypc last year and that was against some stiff competition. I am a huge GIO fan and own him in a keeper league, but for all of us who thought GIO was going to receive close to an every down back type workload had our dreams crushed with the arrival of this guy.
EBF
Footballguy
What the team wants from him and what he'll actually deliver don't have to be the same thing. The Rams didn't draft Pead to cut him after two years. The Saints didn't draft Ingram to make him their #3 RB. The Browns didn't draft Richardson #3 overall to trade him away for a late first a year later. Just because a team spent a certain pick on a guy or had a certain vision for his future doesn't mean he's going to meet or exceed those hopes.
Putting that aside, I don't know what kind of workload you think he's realistically going to get when they already have Bernard. That's a lot of carries off the table from the jump. Personally, I think Hill is a decent player. I think he'll be BJGE+. A serviceable power back and an upgrade over the pitiful numbers they got from that spot last year. Maybe he'll get 180 carries. Maybe 235-250. Something in the middle would be my guess.
I don't think there's a huge mystery in what he's going to be. He's a good inside runner with a little bit of versatility. He'll handle a lot of the dirty work and probably thrive between the tackles. He's not an explosive athlete though and his limited NFL performance to date reflects that. A long run of 14 yards on 21 carries. Only averaging 5.8 yards per catch. The sample size is crazy small, but I'd guess that this aspect of his game will carry over to the regular season. He's slow off the mark with a modest top speed and very limited fast-twitch explosiveness. That's probably not a recipe for dynamic rushing performance at the NFL level.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
West went in the 3rd (albeit late 3rd). Michael went in the 2nd, a backup. Being drafted in the 2nd doesn't clearly point to Hill being a "primary" when Bernard was also a 2nd.
I don't view Hill as a backup, but a complement. We have the precedent from 2013. Bernard should have an expanded role, with more carries, and will get most of the receptions between them. If CIN runs more, there will still be plenty of carries to go around for Hill, I'm not expecting as many as Law Firm last year. Too early, imo, to tell how Hill will impact Bernard in the TD department (relative to the split he already had with Law Firm last year).
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I think he broke the SEC yard per carry average (for a season?), set several decades ago by Garrison Hearst.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Situation reminds me of the 1988 Bengals where they had Ickey Woods and James Brooks.
Carries that year:
Woods Rush 203/1066/15 Rec 21/199/0
Brooks Rush 182/931/8 Rec 29/287/6
Wilson Rush 112/398/2 Rec 9/110/1
My point of bringing up this particular team is that they had 2 excellent backs and found enough touches for both of 'em to really excel. I think this is the same situation with Bernard/Hill.
They did some of this with Bernard and Law Firm last year - but Hill is way better than Law Firm. I think that Gio will be the speed back and Hill will pound it. I think that Hill will probably get about 1/3 of the series. I feel that when they are winning that Hill will serve in the closer role, much the way that BJGE did last season, getting tough yards as they try to kill the clock and ice the game.
Bernard will do well enough to keep his owners happy, but he won't get into that Priest Holmes realm.
Hill will do enough to be a solid value for the owners that pick him up in a later round.
-QG
Carries that year:
Woods Rush 203/1066/15 Rec 21/199/0
Brooks Rush 182/931/8 Rec 29/287/6
Wilson Rush 112/398/2 Rec 9/110/1
My point of bringing up this particular team is that they had 2 excellent backs and found enough touches for both of 'em to really excel. I think this is the same situation with Bernard/Hill.
They did some of this with Bernard and Law Firm last year - but Hill is way better than Law Firm. I think that Gio will be the speed back and Hill will pound it. I think that Hill will probably get about 1/3 of the series. I feel that when they are winning that Hill will serve in the closer role, much the way that BJGE did last season, getting tough yards as they try to kill the clock and ice the game.
Bernard will do well enough to keep his owners happy, but he won't get into that Priest Holmes realm.
Hill will do enough to be a solid value for the owners that pick him up in a later round.
-QG
bill bates hits hard
Footballguy
This is a really good honest post.I see and agree with a lot of those things about hills style but sometimes these battering ram type RBs just wear down the D after a while. Jamal lewis for example.
He wasn't quick but had a 2000 yard season. Breaking big runs after the opposition was wore down.
I'm not saying hill is this type of quality of back but it's clear that Cincy thought Gio lacked something in his game to bring this dude in.
Getting hill 6 rounds later is just plain nice.
Felix Jones averaged 8.7 one year and 7.7 for his career so don't think this is true
JFS171
Footballguy
Guys are referencing this article: http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2014/1/14/5306826/just-how-good-was-jeremy-hills-2013-season
Bob Magaw is correct - it's the single season YPC record for a back with over 200 carries.
It's true, that where one is drafted doesn't necessarily guarantee him a certain role. The player has to come out and prove that they can play and put in the work.
In that respect all we've heard about Hill has been positive.. i.e. "He's doing well in pass blocking drills", "he's an underrated pass catcher", "we want to get him more work with the 1's"..
Then he gets into games and shows extremely well.
Using a sample size of 21 carries and 4 receptions through this preseason, and only highlighting the long of 14 yards rushing, and 5.8 yards per catch, to justify your view of him lacking explosiveness? Also not pointing out his 4.8 ypc and 100 yards on those 21 carries..
I'm surprised you didn't look at Gio's preseason stats; 4 receptions for 16 yards, 4.0 yards per catch, 20 carries, 49 yards, long of 10. Do we write Bernard off based on those numbers? or question his lack of explosiveness?
While he doesn't have elite measureables when we compare him to some of the combine best performers, his combine numbers match up almost equally in all categories with Eddie Lacy and Arian Foster's pro day numbers. So we know that he at least has the physical measureables to succeed at an NFL level, if we can call Lacy and Foster successful examples in the NFL.
Let's see what the kid has, but at the moment it's all been positive coming out of camp, and positive in the preseason games. He's a big bodied NFL back that's shown well to this point, has a high draft pedigree and elite college statistics.
Oh and here's the thing about the recipe for a dynamic rushing performance/ player at the NFL level.. there isn't an exact one. Some players have god like measureables but have zero vision, some guys have all the talent in the world but can't stop smoking pot, some guys can't fight through a hang nail, some guys just can't fulfill their potential, and some never get the chance.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Probably not - but the comparison is apt I think. The Gio/Hill dynamic looks like it'd be the same.
Ickey was so good (and the Ickey shuffle so popular) that Brooks probably had the most unheralded 14-TD season ever.
My larger point is that in the right system there's enough carries and points to go around.
-QG
Concept Coop
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
So we're back in the imaginary universe where I was wrong about Eddie Lacy? I thought I debunked that already.Concept Coop said:
Here's what I said about Lacy in May of last year:
It looks like I undersold his receiving skills, but I was 22 yards away from rushing total. If that's bad prognosticating then I don't want to be good.EBF said:
I think you have a tendency to get overly emotional/defensive when people criticize players you like. Not many players are perfect. Not many are above criticism. I can think someone has flaws and still believe he can be be productive. Lacy last year is actually a great example. I didn't think he was a great back. I still don't. However, he was good enough to thrive in that situation. I never really believed otherwise, so I don't know why you continue to bring it up.
Likewise, I don't think my prediction that Hill will get between 180-220 carries is that unrealistic or pessimistic. Bernard was a higher pick, already had a solid rookie year, and brings a more dynamic big play element, especially in the passing game. With his history as a return man and receiver, he has a long track record of being a playmaker in space. There's no reason to think he's just going to completely recede into the background.
Gio played 16 games in the NFL last year. Generally speaking, preseason performance is a little less important for guys with a longer track record. When we talk about what Hill looks like in the NFL, all we have to go by besides practice reports are three preseason games. With Bernard, there's an entire season of work to look at. That's a lot more significant to me than the 20 carries he has gotten this preseason.
Like I said, I don't see this as an overly-complicated situation. The Bengals used two backs heavily last season. I would expect more of the same this season, with the only major difference being that Hill will be in the "thunder" role instead of BJGE. That seems like a pretty straightforward and honest reading of this situation to me. Thinking that Hill is going to be utilized like Bell/Lacy last year seems like it requires more of a stretch since the team already has another back who can handle a solid amount of carries and play a key role as a pass catcher. That wipes out a lot of the opportunity.
Not trying to argue, and rather just pointing this out but..
On one hand, you're saying that based off of his preseason he lacks explosiveness (as indicated by his 5.8 yards per catch as you said) and making a judgement of his talent based on his numbers.
On the other you're saying that when we look at Hill we only have the preseason to go on with him, as compared to Bernard's full season the year before, on top of this preseason when judging NFL talent.
So is the preseason an indicator of talent or no? Should we judge him based on what we've seen in the preseason? Because Hill's had a good preseason, and has looked like a quality NFL running back even against the first team defenses.
I think what people when reading your response are getting from it, is that your saying he's basically a younger BJGE.
While true from a measureables standpoint, they have similar combine/pro day type numbers, Hill is a more complete back already at this point in his career.
No one's saying he's going to take the job from Bernard, what they are saying is that perhaps you're not giving him enough credit for the level of talent he possesses.
EBF
Footballguy
What I've found over the years on these boards is that it's a crime just to have an opinion. If you have opinions, people will inevitably try to use them against you. If you stick to your guns on a player, they will say you never change your mind and can't adjust to new information. That's what I hear in the T-Rich threads. If you change your mind on a player, they'll say you're a fraud and a flip-flopper who changes his tone whenever it's convenient. That's what you're shoveling at me here. It's a lose-lose situation for anyone putting his opinion out there because you can't avoid criticism unless you're 100% right all the time about every player, which isn't realistic. I try to make accurate assessments and I try to adjust them when I think it's appropriate. That's all anyone can do.Concept Coop said:
I think as far as Lacy is concerned, I certainly underestimated his NFL potential prior to his final college season. I did not rate him highly and had minimal expectations. That gradually changed. By the end of the season, I had him as the #1 RB in his rookie class. If you're trying to posterize me and turn this into a "told you so" game then you can certainly emphasize that I was initially wrong about him. However, I continued to monitor and adjust that assessment. By the time rookie drafts rolled around, I had (IMO) a very accurate understanding of what he brought to the table. He was one of the players that I consistently rated highly from January up until the start of the season. I even reached to get him early in my redraft league. I don't think I have any great need to apologize for my assessment of Lacy. I said he would win the starting job and rush for 1200 yards in May last year and yet here you are taking me to task for being wrong about him.
Think about that for a minute. It's completely ridiculous. If you judge every prognosticator based on what he thinks of a guy's NFL prospects prior to or midway through that player's first season as a college starter, you'll find that nobody is infallible. You happened to get this one right a little earlier than me and IMO have been itching to get one over on me after taking one on the chin in our earlier Doug Martin discussions way back when. I guess you can parade this one around as your great victory if it makes you feel better, but I'm not ashamed of how I handled Lacy. I think I did pretty well there overall.
shader
Footballguy
This is true. This isn't from the coaching staff, it's from a website writer.
Gio has been on the field the majority of the time during the preseason, which is at times the only thing the preseason is good for.
I like Hill and think he has talent. This could easily turn into a Bell/Bush type of scenario where they both get lots of PT. But liking one doesn't mean the other is going away. The Bengals aren't going to let Gio have 300 carries, nor should they. The real loser in this is BJGE, but he deserved to hit the bench.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't think it should seem contradictory or hypocritical. It's actually really simple.
When you count the preseason(s) and the playoffs, Gio has already played in 24 games in his NFL career. Over the course of those games, he has carried the ball 229 times. The 20 carries he has logged this preseason represent only 8.7% of his total career carries. If I'm evaluating him based on his NFL career as a whole and giving equal weight to every carry, the other 91.3% of his work (which has been fairly positive) is going to represent a much bigger chunk of the overall outlook than that tiny 8.7%. Hence why I didn't even bother mentioning it. It's a minor consideration at the moment.
On the other hand, Jeremy Hill has only played in three NFL games so far. His 21 carries this preseason represent 100% of his NFL performance to date. If you're judging him based solely on his pro performance, those games are going to determine 100% of your analysis. That doesn't mean the sample size is adequate or that what we're seeing is conclusive. I even said as much. However, excluding his college career from the equation, it's all that we have to go by...so far.
Generally speaking, I'd say the preseason is more significant for players with a shorter track record. We already know what LeSean McCoy and Brandon Marshall look like. There's no mystery. We don't quite know what somebody like Andre Williams or Bishop Sankey is going to be in the NFL. We can make a guess based on what they looked like in college and other variables, but they're so early in their pro careers that each game they play at this stage of their development represents a huge percentage of their overall body of NFL work. So if we're "filling in the blanks" of what they're going to be using their early NFL performance, what they look like in those early games is going to have a huge impact on that.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
My comments weren't made to boast or celebrate a win. My apologies if they came off that way. And my apologies if I misinterpreted your initial statement or tone. Lastly, very especially and very sincerely, my apologies for any and all comments directed at you and not your comments on the topic.What I've found over the years on these boards is that it's a crime just to have an opinion. If you have opinions, people will inevitably try to use them against you. If you stick to your guns on a player, they will say you never change your mind and can't adjust to new information. That's what I hear in the T-Rich threads. If you change your mind on a player, they'll say you're a fraud and a flip-flopper who changes his tone whenever it's convenient. That's what you're shoveling at me here. It's a lose-lose situation for anyone putting his opinion out there because you can't avoid criticism unless you're 100% right all the time about every player, which isn't realistic. I try to make accurate assessments and I try to adjust them when I think it's appropriate. That's all anyone can do.
I think as far as Lacy is concerned, I certainly underestimated his NFL potential prior to his final college season. I did not rate him highly and had minimal expectations. That gradually changed. By the end of the season, I had him as the #1 RB in his rookie class. If you're trying to posterize me and turn this into a "told you so" game then you can certainly emphasize that I was initially wrong about him. However, I continued to monitor and adjust that assessment. By the time rookie drafts rolled around, I had (IMO) a very accurate understanding of what he brought to the table. He was one of the players that I consistently rated highly from January up until the start of the season. I even reached to get him early in my redraft league. I don't think I have any great need to apologize for my assessment of Lacy. I said he would win the starting job and rush for 1200 yards in May last year and yet here you are taking me to task for being wrong about him.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm #TeamHill and would trade 2x Hills for Gio in any dynasty format, today. Gio's a stud and Hill would have to greatly exceed my expectations to ever be the more valuable dynasty back.
That doesn't make me any less #TeamHill, however. To death.
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White Lightning
Footballguy
For some added perspective, this preseason Hill has ran for 100 yds on 21 rushes. While 4th string Bengal's running back Cedric Peerman has rushed for 108 yds on 18 carries.
bill bates hits hard
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
230/1,030/8 - 30/210/1
#TeamHill
#TeamHill
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
IMO the determining variable on this RBBC is going to be how well Bernard runs inside the tackles when it matters. Last year there was some room for improvement, but if he can pop off 4-4.5 a carry in there, I think he'll earn the lion's share of the touches in the offense. He's just too versatile and dangerous a weapon to take routinely take off the field.
If Bernard isn't capable of doing that (effectively, not necessarily better than Hill), then I think Hill's piece of the pie will grow and Bernard's role will decrease from that of a lesser Ray Rice (in terms of touch volume) to something more along the lines of a Reggie Bush.
I can see him bouncing back and forth between those two role archetypes throughout his career as the scheme fit and surrounding cast varies. Pretty good player to have long-term in dynasty PPR.
Edit: Since this is the Hill thread, might as well share my thoughts there. I think he's a back with long-term 3 down potential, but it's going to take years to fully realize it with Bernard around. Not a bad long-term buy in dynasty, but his value has a chance to be lower early in the season (while Bernard might be getting his trial run in between the tackles), or sometime after year one when his owner realizes there's still two more years of playing second fiddle before the big payoff. Especially right after the next rookie draft when there will be a lot of shiny new hyped RB toys capturing his attention.
If Bernard isn't capable of doing that (effectively, not necessarily better than Hill), then I think Hill's piece of the pie will grow and Bernard's role will decrease from that of a lesser Ray Rice (in terms of touch volume) to something more along the lines of a Reggie Bush.
I can see him bouncing back and forth between those two role archetypes throughout his career as the scheme fit and surrounding cast varies. Pretty good player to have long-term in dynasty PPR.
Edit: Since this is the Hill thread, might as well share my thoughts there. I think he's a back with long-term 3 down potential, but it's going to take years to fully realize it with Bernard around. Not a bad long-term buy in dynasty, but his value has a chance to be lower early in the season (while Bernard might be getting his trial run in between the tackles), or sometime after year one when his owner realizes there's still two more years of playing second fiddle before the big payoff. Especially right after the next rookie draft when there will be a lot of shiny new hyped RB toys capturing his attention.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
IIRC, a significant number of Hill's runs weren't with/against the ones either. Bernard dominated that time in the first two preseason games. Hill wasn't really worked into the mix until game 3, and even then I believe it wasn't until after a few series of Bernard.
Preseason results are fairly meaningless, anyway. Bernard averaged 4.1 YPC last season over 170 carries. Does anyone really think going 10 for 17 in a preseason game is going to significantly move the coaching staff's needle on his running abilities? Hill has zero NFL carries. He's obviously going to get his chance, but he's still going to have to earn his stripes during the regular season just like any other rookie.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The carry split was 220/170 in 2013 in favor of BJGE. Towards the end of the season, however, it was pretty close to 50/50. They claim to want to run the ball more, and to do so at a faster pace (more snaps). I'm projecting something like 230/185 in favor of Hill with something like a 60/30 reception split in favor of Gio.
I personally don't think Gio in a bell-cow role was ever in the plans. I say that due to the drafting of Hill, the labeling of them as co-starters (early), and the blurbs from local media predicting the usage of each guy. That, and I think it makes sense from an organizational standpoint.
I personally don't think Gio in a bell-cow role was ever in the plans. I say that due to the drafting of Hill, the labeling of them as co-starters (early), and the blurbs from local media predicting the usage of each guy. That, and I think it makes sense from an organizational standpoint.
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EastonBlues22
Footballguy
To put numbers on it, I see his upside as 2009 Ray Rice with a slightly lower YPC (~250 carries at 4.6 YPC with ~80 catches at 8.5 YPR and 8-10 TDs), with 2011 Reggie Bush with a slightly lower YPC being the flip side (~210 carries at 4.1 YPC with ~45 catches at 7.0 YPR with 6 TDs).
Lower YPC in both instances because I don't think he has quite the breakaway speed that either of the other two do. I think Bernard is every bit their equal as a passing game weapon. His upside there is only capped by the number of targets he'll get in the offense he's in.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
Having a nice night against the back-ups...
it's a kind of perplexing night for Hill. he is playing while Bernard and almost all the starters aren't but it's almost like he is being tried out to see if he can handle a big load as he hasn't come out at all really. he badly botched a pass protection but then had a great one later along with a big 41 yard gain on a screen. has looked very strong running and gotten big praise from the Bengals announcers who think he has passed BJGE. had a TD taken away but they said coaches had pressed him to see what he can do and he has 15-60 with 2 rec, 49 yards in less than a half of work. I think this is a positive night for him
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Snagged Gio in the 3rd of a PPR... Glad he keeps falling 
If he stays healthy he'll touch the ball 300 plus times, and I can't ask for much more from my 3rd rounder. Like Hill's potential, but he won't have major relevance without a Gio injury, maybe a flex with a healthy Gio, but who knows.
If he stays healthy he'll touch the ball 300 plus times, and I can't ask for much more from my 3rd rounder. Like Hill's potential, but he won't have major relevance without a Gio injury, maybe a flex with a healthy Gio, but who knows.
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
I don't think there was much dispute that Hill can catch. He's not going to be running complex routes or anything, but he has fairly decent hands and I don't see any reason why he can't catch 30ish dumpoffs/screens over the course of a year if a non-RBBC role. He won't get that with Bernard around, but in a vacuum he certainly has that ability.
Didn't get to see him play tonight, but it looks like he did most of his damage in the second quarter. For anyone who was watching, were the defensive "starters" still in at that point?
Didn't get to see him play tonight, but it looks like he did most of his damage in the second quarter. For anyone who was watching, were the defensive "starters" still in at that point?
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
Jeremy Hill exited the Bengals' preseason finale Thursday night with an elbow injury.
The Bengals certainly pushed their luck in this one. They gave second-rounder Hill a whopping 20 touches in two quarters. Hill generated 123 all-purpose yards, while catching all five of his targets in the passing game. He did blow a blitz pickup, which resulted in a Jason Campbell sack, but the usage was certainly promising. The elbow injury is believed to be minor. Hill's role remains uncertain for Week 1 against Baltimore, but there are certainly signs he'll get more touches than most people have forecasted.
The Bengals certainly pushed their luck in this one. They gave second-rounder Hill a whopping 20 touches in two quarters. Hill generated 123 all-purpose yards, while catching all five of his targets in the passing game. He did blow a blitz pickup, which resulted in a Jason Campbell sack, but the usage was certainly promising. The elbow injury is believed to be minor. Hill's role remains uncertain for Week 1 against Baltimore, but there are certainly signs he'll get more touches than most people have forecasted.
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
Looks like he's back in for 3rd quarter action.
