Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (1 Viewer)

[Da Gildz]

So onto 2015...where does Hill go in drafts? 1st rd? mid-2nd seems to be the absolute floor for him. I love the kid but I cant deny the fact Gio will cap his ceiling somewhat. Do I think he's a top-10 back? For sure. Not sure he can make that leap into the top-5 though....

Thoughts?

 

[dcgangstas]

So onto 2015...where does Hill go in drafts? 1st rd? mid-2nd seems to be the absolute floor for him. I love the kid but I cant deny the fact Gio will cap his ceiling somewhat. Do I think he's a top-10 back? For sure. Not sure he can make that leap into the top-5 though....

Thoughts?

I'd say very early 2nd round in a 12 team re-draft (2.02 in a snake draft) and late first round in a keeper/dynasty format. You could draft him as your RB1 if you go WR (Antonio Brown, MegaTron, Dez) in the first round in a re-draft. I'd expect Hill to get around 270 carries next year, for about 1350 yards rushing (5 ypc), 340 yards receiving and 12 TDs. The Bengals should continue to emphasize the power running game in 2015, regardless of whether Hue Jackson is there or not.

Solid FF RB1 production.

 

[dickey moe]

I'd be happy to have him as my RB2. I have to see him perform for a full season and see how the split works out with Bernard before I bump him up to RB1 territory.

 

[Da Gildz]

I'd be happy to have him as my RB2. I have to see him perform for a full season and see how the split works out with Bernard before I bump him up to RB1 territory.

That's going to be the issue, you wont be able to get him as your RB2 in most drafts. I'd put him in that Demarco Murray territory this year. He was a late 1st/early 2nd in most drafts...

 

[ldizzle]

So onto 2015...where does Hill go in drafts? 1st rd? mid-2nd seems to be the absolute floor for him. I love the kid but I cant deny the fact Gio will cap his ceiling somewhat. Do I think he's a top-10 back? For sure. Not sure he can make that leap into the top-5 though....

Thoughts?

I'd say very early 2nd round in a 12 team re-draft (2.02 in a snake draft) and late first round in a keeper/dynasty format. You could draft him as your RB1 if you go WR (Antonio Brown, MegaTron, Dez) in the first round in a re-draft. I'd expect Hill to get around 270 carries next year, for about 1350 yards rushing (5 ypc), 340 yards receiving and 12 TDs. The Bengals should continue to emphasize the power running game in 2015, regardless of whether Hue Jackson is there or not. Solid FF RB1 production.

thats very optimistic

 

[dcgangstas]

So onto 2015...where does Hill go in drafts? 1st rd? mid-2nd seems to be the absolute floor for him. I love the kid but I cant deny the fact Gio will cap his ceiling somewhat. Do I think he's a top-10 back? For sure. Not sure he can make that leap into the top-5 though....

Thoughts?

I'd say very early 2nd round in a 12 team re-draft (2.02 in a snake draft) and late first round in a keeper/dynasty format. You could draft him as your RB1 if you go WR (Antonio Brown, MegaTron, Dez) in the first round in a re-draft. I'd expect Hill to get around 270 carries next year, for about 1350 yards rushing (5 ypc), 340 yards receiving and 12 TDs. The Bengals should continue to emphasize the power running game in 2015, regardless of whether Hue Jackson is there or not. Solid FF RB1 production.

thats very optimistic

Too much upside for Hill to think otherwise.

He led the NFL in rushing for the 2nd half of 2014, and rushed for 1124 yards even though he wasn't designated as the primary RB until Week 13. Don't see Gio taking anything more than change-of-pace and passing situations, even though Hill is a decent receiver and solid in pass protection.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Rotoworld:

Jeremy Hill - RB - Bengals

Bengals.com suggests Jeremy Hill will handle 15-20 touches per game in 2015, while Gio Bernard will handle 8-11.

Beat writer Geoff Hobson is "going to write in" Bernard for 60 catches as "the change-of-pace guy," while Hill should keep the feature back role. Hill was one of the premier value picks in 2014 fantasy drafts, but it's fair to wonder if he'll be a bit overvalued in 2015. He won't be a three-down back. We've seen early mocks and MFL10s where Hill goes in the first round.

Source: bengals.com

Feb 8 - 10:30 AM

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Jeremy Hill averaged 5.6 yards per carry and a touchdown per game in the seven contests where he handled 15-plus carries as a rookie.
Whereas Hill dominated in the feature back role, Gio Bernard was less effective on expanded rushing usage, managing a 4.12 YPC average and 0.7 TDs in his seven games with 14-plus carries. As beat writer Paul Dehner notes, Gio "excelled once shifted into a more situational, receiving role late in the season." Expect Hill to remain the Bengals' clear-lead running back in 2015.

Source: Cincinnati Enquirer
Feb 27 - 9:26 AM

 

[Jeremy's Spoken]

Your choices are: Never start him unless gio is hurt. Which worked out pretty well this year. But then you're paying a lot for "gio's backup". Start him every week, and accept mediocre rb numbers. Or try to time it. Which never works, but almost everyone does it. Because say he had a 96 yard game with a touchdown in week 2. You'd want to stay him the next week, when you get 34 and a td. Or another 90 and a td in week 12, followed by back to back turds of 53 and 64 total yards. If you bench him until he does well, then start him after his good game, you miss his good games, and only start him for his bad ones. And that's what I called roster poison.

No, this is what you called roster poison;

I think Hill has a good shot at being a top 20 fantasy back this season. If you just give him Law Firm's carries and a 4.0 average you are looking at Top 30. If he does better his point increase. If he catches a few balls, his point increase. If Gio gets dinged, his points increase. I think RB30 is about his floor.

I don't disagree with any of this. I think I said just about the same thing. I just think you've described fantasy football poison. Do you really want a guy who should be top 30 and has a really good chance at being top 20? Maybe in your case, getting him at the bottom of the second or top of the third. There, he's a great depth pick. I have no problem with that whatsoever. I'm specifically talking about taking him early. And if I somehow ended up with him, I'd be looking to trade him after a couple good games - which I think he'll have. I just don't think there will be enough of him to justify having him in your lineup each week.

This went on and on for post after post and you essentially called anyone that was a RB2 and by your definition not having the "upside" of a RB1 roster poison.

Hey bostonfred - who is your "roster poison" prediction for 2015.

We would all like to know...

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Jeremy Hill - RB - Bengals

The Bengals ran the ball on 49.4 percent of their offensive plays last season.

According to ESPN Bengals reporter Coley Harvey, that's the team's highest percentage since 2009. Clearly the needle is pointing up for Jeremy Hill. The 1,124 rushing yards he recorded as a rookie were the most by a Bengal since Cedric Benson blew up for for 1,251 yards in 2009. Harvey also suggested Rex Burkhead and Giovani Bernard could play bigger roles this season as Cincinnati transitions toward a more run-based offense.

Related: Giovani Bernard, Rex Burkhead

Source: ESPN.com

Apr 5 - 8:28 AM

 

[bostonfred]

I still think he's overrated. He had a great second half of the season, but everything worked out perfect for him. Gio got hurt, Hill had fresh legs, Dalton had his bone head games at just the right time, he caught the Browns playing manziel and the Broncos with Peyton sucking - it really was a perfect storm.

I certainly agree with those of you who said he's talented, and i said early and often that a gio injury could lead to short term success and it obviously did. but i still very much believe he's getting way over drafted in dynasty and redraft right now.

 

[amicsta]

I still think he's overrated. He had a great second half of the season, but everything worked out perfect for him. Gio got hurt, Hill had fresh legs, Dalton had his bone head games at just the right time, he caught the Browns playing manziel and the Broncos with Peyton sucking - it really was a perfect storm.

I certainly agree with those of you who said he's talented, and i said early and often that a gio injury could lead to short term success and it obviously did. but i still very much believe he's getting way over drafted in dynasty and redraft right now.

I own him in a dynasty league and am not sure how to treat him. It did seem as though Hill was the clear lead even when both backs were healthy, if they run a ton, I feel like Hill should be able to get his even with Gio still getting some (maybe like a 240/160 type split,maybe more?). Is that off base? What should that be valued at you think?

 

[cstu]

I still think he's overrated. He had a great second half of the season, but everything worked out perfect for him. Gio got hurt, Hill had fresh legs, Dalton had his bone head games at just the right time, he caught the Browns playing manziel and the Broncos with Peyton sucking - it really was a perfect storm.

I certainly agree with those of you who said he's talented, and i said early and often that a gio injury could lead to short term success and it obviously did. but i still very much believe he's getting way over drafted in dynasty and redraft right now.

#1 sell high this offseason IMO.

 

[djmich]

I still think he's overrated. He had a great second half of the season, but everything worked out perfect for him. Gio got hurt, Hill had fresh legs, Dalton had his bone head games at just the right time, he caught the Browns playing manziel and the Broncos with Peyton sucking - it really was a perfect storm.

I certainly agree with those of you who said he's talented, and i said early and often that a gio injury could lead to short term success and it obviously did. but i still very much believe he's getting way over drafted in dynasty and redraft right now.

#1 sell high this offseason IMO.

What would high be? Outside of Bell & Lacy are there any other RB's that are clearly more valuable? Would you trade him for McCoy, Murray or Charles straight up? I don't think anyone is moving Evans or Watkins for him.

 

[Jeremy's Spoken]

I still think he's overrated. He had a great second half of the season, but everything worked out perfect for him. Gio got hurt, Hill had fresh legs, Dalton had his bone head games at just the right time, he caught the Browns playing manziel and the Broncos with Peyton sucking - it really was a perfect storm.

I certainly agree with those of you who said he's talented, and i said early and often that a gio injury could lead to short term success and it obviously did. but i still very much believe he's getting way over drafted in dynasty and redraft right now.

Gio was healthy at the end of the year and played second fiddle. Jeremy Hill won championships for people that invested in him high in rookie drafts. People like yourself did not participate in the benefits that he paid people last year.

Roster-poison...???

That was DEAD effin wrong!

 

[Bob Magaw]

Rotoworld:

Jeremy Hill averaged 5.6 yards per carry and a touchdown per game in the seven contests where he handled 15-plus carries as a rookie.
Whereas Hill dominated in the feature back role, Gio Bernard was less effective on expanded rushing usage, managing a 4.12 YPC average and 0.7 TDs in his seven games with 14-plus carries. As beat writer Paul Dehner notes, Gio "excelled once shifted into a more situational, receiving role late in the season." Expect Hill to remain the Bengals' clear-lead running back in 2015.

Source: Cincinnati Enquirer
Feb 27 - 9:26 AM

Hill's 2014 game log (Pro Football Reference)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HillJe01/gamelog/2014/

In his first seven games, he only had as many as 15 carries once, and less than 10 carries in five of those games. His high in this span was 74 yards, with no more than 39 yards in the other games.

In the last nine games (regular season), only less than 10 carries one time, and at least 18 carries in six games. He had less than 87 yards just three times, and five with 100+ (100, 147, 148, 152 & 154). Clearly there seemed to be a changing of the guard. One popular pre and even in-season narrative by some, was that Hill would "always" play second fiddle to Bernard as long as he was healthy, because he was so much more talented, but it only took a matter of months in his rookie season to disabuse most people of the notion that he couldn't overtake Bernard as a feature RB.

While just a proration, others can do there own, or not, a look at what those last nine regular season games would look like, projected over a full season. Just rushing, others can figure out passing game expectations, obviously that would be expected to greatly favor Bernard. In fact, that was a pre-season theory that could have legs, if Hill has more rushes, Bernard more receptions, there are a lot of both to distribute, which could leave plenty of touches for both.

172-929-6 in nine games = 305-1,650-10 in 16 games

* Bernard's game log (missed games 8-10, one which Hill only had 12 carries for 55 yards, the other two were his season highs, 27 and 24 carry games, both for 150+ rushing yards - so ding him accordingly on the proration)

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BernGi00/gamelog/2014/

 

[Tool]

I still think he's overrated. He had a great second half of the season, but everything worked out perfect for him. Gio got hurt, Hill had fresh legs, Dalton had his bone head games at just the right time, he caught the Browns playing manziel and the Broncos with Peyton sucking - it really was a perfect storm.

I certainly agree with those of you who said he's talented, and i said early and often that a gio injury could lead to short term success and it obviously did. but i still very much believe he's getting way over drafted in dynasty and redraft right now.

The hardest thing for someone to do is change their mind.

 

[cstu]

I still think he's overrated. He had a great second half of the season, but everything worked out perfect for him. Gio got hurt, Hill had fresh legs, Dalton had his bone head games at just the right time, he caught the Browns playing manziel and the Broncos with Peyton sucking - it really was a perfect storm.

I certainly agree with those of you who said he's talented, and i said early and often that a gio injury could lead to short term success and it obviously did. but i still very much believe he's getting way over drafted in dynasty and redraft right now.

#1 sell high this offseason IMO.

What would high be? Outside of Bell & Lacy are there any other RB's that are clearly more valuable? Would you trade him for McCoy, Murray or Charles straight up? I don't think anyone is moving Evans or Watkins for him.

I did trade him straight up for Charles.

 

[jurb26]

I still think he's overrated. He had a great second half of the season, but everything worked out perfect for him. Gio got hurt, Hill had fresh legs, Dalton had his bone head games at just the right time, he caught the Browns playing manziel and the Broncos with Peyton sucking - it really was a perfect storm.

I certainly agree with those of you who said he's talented, and i said early and often that a gio injury could lead to short term success and it obviously did. but i still very much believe he's getting way over drafted in dynasty and redraft right now.

The hardest thing for someone to do is change their mind.

It's sad to see someone so entrenched in a preconceived opinion. It's OK, bostonfred, everyone gets things wrong. Learn from it and move on.

 

[Sabertooth]

I kind of agree with him. Hill had a great run there but I actually just sold him in a dynasty for the reasons he outlined. I don't see him doing much more.

 

[12punch]

more like roster beast amirite

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I'm staying away from this situation. This has Carolina part two written all over it with Stewart and Williams. Gio is a good player. Not a lead back volume guy as we have seen but enough to get useage that will deem Hill useless those weeks he is not scoring a td or if Cincy is playing catch up. The price on Hill is too high given this situation the next couple years. I can see it now......Hill owners screaming for less Gio touches even though it will be better for Cincy but not great for fantasy.

A healthy Gio is a good player especially in the receiving department. Buyer beware on hill.

 

[amicsta]

I guess it kind of depends on where people are valuing Hill. I'm not sure a ton of growth on last year is reasonable (per game), and idk if the team will ever give him 300 carries if they have both to use, but Gio is a pretty pedestrian runner, just a 4 yards per carry guy. The success of the Bengals is also critical, as Hill can't pace the way if the team is trailing. Then I'd expect more Gio for the passing situations. There are certainly a lot of questions to be answered. I own him and I'll probably dangle him just to see what I can get, but it's hard to move a guy who went 1,300/9 as a rookie in what has become a run-oriented offense.

 

[SproutDaddy]

@ him not doing much more. Of course I can't see the future, but anyone who would say something to that effect has to be a Gio owner in denial.

 

[Jeremy's Spoken]

That is just foolish talk...

 

[Bob Magaw]

That is just foolish talk...

I endorse this avatar AND message.

 

[Biabreakable]

Just piggybacking off of Bobs post about rushing attempt projections for the Bengals in 2015

Gio Bernard 2014 missed 3 games.

12.92 ra/game = 207ra
4.54 targets/game = 73 targets

In Bernards rookie season he played all 16 games and had 170 ra (10.63/game) which is slightly less than the 12.92 ra/game in the new offense.

2013 Bengals had 1097 total offensive plays which included 481 rushing attempts (43.8% run). BenJarvis Green-Ellis had 220 rushing attempts in 16 games to Bernards 170. Converting that into a percentage Bernard had 35.3% of the rushing attempts. BJGE had 45.7%

2014 Bengals had 1018 total offensive plays which included 492 rushing attempts (48.3% run). Hill had 222 rushing attempts in 16 games to Bernards 168 in 13 games. Converting that into a percentage Bernard had 34.1% of the rushing attempts. Hill had 45.1%

If you use the pro rated numbers for Bernard (207ra) that would be 42.1% of the rushing attempts.

The main change I see from 2013 to 2014 is less total offensive plays with almost a 5% increase is rushing attempts. The 79 less total offensive plays was a 7% drop from 1097. So this mitigated the increase in run to pass ratio because there were less offensive plays.

I think I said last year that I expected that to happen.

So assuming the Bengals run 1050 total plays at 48.3% rushing attempts that is 507 rushing attempts. If Hill gets 45.1% of those that is 229 rushing attempts.

By averaging Bernards pro rated and actual total I get 38% of the rushing attempts, which would be 193.

This would be 422 rushing attempts between the two RB leaving 85 rushing attempts for Dalton who has had 61 and 60 rushing attempts the last two seasons. There would be another 25 carries left for WR and a third RB.

Now that ratio of rushing attempts divided up between the two primary RB may shift further in Hills favor, but the evidence of the past two seasons does not really suggest that.

 

[humpback]

Just piggybacking off of Bobs post about rushing attempt projections for the Bengals in 2015

Gio Bernard 2014 missed 3 games.

12.92 ra/game = 207ra
4.54 targets/game = 73 targets

In Bernards rookie season he played all 16 games and had 170 ra (10.63/game) which is slightly less than the 12.92 ra/game in the new offense.

2013 Bengals had 1097 total offensive plays which included 481 rushing attempts (43.8% run). BenJarvis Green-Ellis had 220 rushing attempts in 16 games to Bernards 170. Converting that into a percentage Bernard had 35.3% of the rushing attempts. BJGE had 45.7%

2014 Bengals had 1018 total offensive plays which included 492 rushing attempts (48.3% run). Hill had 222 rushing attempts in 16 games to Bernards 168 in 13 games. Converting that into a percentage Bernard had 34.1% of the rushing attempts. Hill had 45.1%

If you use the pro rated numbers for Bernard (207ra) that would be 42.1% of the rushing attempts.

The main change I see from 2013 to 2014 is less total offensive plays with almost a 5% increase is rushing attempts. The 79 less total offensive plays was a 7% drop from 1097. So this mitigated the increase in run to pass ratio because there were less offensive plays.

I think I said last year that I expected that to happen.

So assuming the Bengals run 1050 total plays at 48.3% rushing attempts that is 507 rushing attempts. If Hill gets 45.1% of those that is 229 rushing attempts.

By averaging Bernards pro rated and actual total I get 38% of the rushing attempts, which would be 193.

This would be 422 rushing attempts between the two RB leaving 85 rushing attempts for Dalton who has had 61 and 60 rushing attempts the last two seasons. There would be another 25 carries left for WR and a third RB.

Now that ratio of rushing attempts divided up between the two primary RB may shift further in Hills favor, but the evidence of the past two seasons does not really suggest that.

I'm not seeing how the 2013 numbers are relevant at all- different offensive coordinator, Hill wasn't even on the team, etc.

The most applicable splits IMO are from after Gio returned from injury- from that week on (including the playoff game), Hill had 122 carries vs. 62 for Gio, and Hill's pace in those games would have put him at ~280 for a full season vs. ~140 for Gio.

 

[bostonfred]

Why are you assuming gio was 100%? Just because he was able to be on the field again doesn't mean he was fully healthy. there are two logical explanations that both make sense - hill earned more time while gio was out, or the team cut back on gio's carries once he got back. Both are viable.

And during that stretch, hill had big games against a struggling Denver team and a Manziel led browns team but he also had 40 and 46 yard performances against the steelers and bucs.

lastly, lots of running backs get hot in the second half, running on fresh legs against beat up defenses and teams that are eliminated from the playoffs. second half splits can be deceptive.

I know this will sounds stubborn, but i stand by most if what i said since the start of this thread. That includes the roster poison line in its original context. i also acknowledge that was dead wrong about his dynasty trade value - it went through the roof when he blew up during the second half of the season.

I get that people won championships with him. As I said from the start, if things paned out well for him - especially a gio injury - he could easily have a great year mixed in with some mediocrity. it not only happened early but he got hot at the right time. and he looks every bit as talented as you guys said. Kudos to his owners for getting quality value from him already. personally I would try to maximize that value by trading a player with a structural deficiency for one that doesn't have a gio in the backfield with him. I don't blame anyone for hoping he can keep this up, but I think it's a bad bet.

 

[cstu]

I'm not seeing how the 2013 numbers are relevant at all- different offensive coordinator, Hill wasn't even on the team, etc.

The most applicable splits IMO are from after Gio returned from injury- from that week on (including the playoff game), Hill had 122 carries vs. 62 for Gio, and Hill's pace in those games would have put him at ~280 for a full season vs. ~140 for Gio.

Good post and I agree.

The questions I have are:

1) Will the Bengals run as much this year as they did down the stretch last year?

2) Will the ratio continue this year?

3) Will Hill's YPC stay at 5 YPC or will he regress as he gets more carries every week?

4) Will AJG catch more TD's and cut into Hill's TD total?

5) How many passes will Hill catch?

My opinion:

1) 420 carries by those those two seems like a lot when they already were 5th in rush attempts as a team last year. Possible though.

2) Certainly possible - this classic 'thunder and lightning' with Hill getting most of the carries and Gio getting most of the receptions.

3) Very few RB's have averaged 5 YPC during their first two seasons so I have to expect a lower YPC this year. My guess is he'll be around 4.7 YPC this year.

4) Dalton only threw 19 TD's and Green only caught 6 TD's last year - I expect that to go up. If Green is healthy I think it's limits the upside for Hill's TD's.

5) In those last 7 games with Gio healthy, Hill caught 11 - pro-rated over the season that's 25 (he had 27 last year).

Overall, I could see him with 280/1316(4.7)/10 with close to 30 receptions for 240 yards.

 

[Bob Magaw]

An important set of numbers to highlight is Y/A rushing.

It is a cliche, but some backs get in a rhythm with more carries, and Hill is far more built for the rigors of a feature RB punishing, and to receive a volume workload. Factoring in touches Bernard will get with receptions, they may want to keep a close eye on his carries, like a pitch count in baseball.

Within the time frame noted above of the last nine game proration for Hill, 172-929 = 5.4

Since Bernard missed games 8-10, taking up his production from after the changeover to Hill as feature RB, in the last six games, 79 yards was his high, 49 yards was his next high, and he had two games with less than 20 yards. 59-234 = just under 4.0.

That is almost a yard and a half difference PER CARRY. Sure Hill broke some long runs, but if he is as talented as it appears, and it wasn't a mirage, he doesn't inexplicably regress, that may be a regular occurrence. Back to one of the original premises of potentially being able to handle a volume workload, and that helping to establish a rhythm, it could be a numbers game, and the more they feed him the ball, that increases the chance that he pops an explosive play or two of 20-30 yards. I haven't looked at splits by quarter, but he seemed like a well conditioned athlete for a 235 lb. RB, with stamina and endurance. Do any of you guys recall him huffing and puffing a lot, grabbing his knees, tapping out? I don't. So he might be the kind of back that you want to feed even more in the fourth quarter (unless they are down by a few TDs of course, game script can dictate usage), so he can take advantage of tired defenses, worn out by the pounding. Late in the game, it may be harder for a DB to make that "business decision" when he gets to the second and third level. I don't mean it simplistically, but using him more, if he is the better pounding RB than Bernard, and they may not want Dalton trying to carry the team, may be CINs best chance to win. If we realize that, Jackson must?

To sum up, if the Y/A discrepancy between Hill and Bernard continues, I could see them not stubbornly continuing to try to get Bernard some workload closer to half, but instead trying to get Hill even more involved, to take advantage of just flat out being a better pure between the tackles runner, and better tackle breaker from anywhere on the field. Bernard is obviously very dangerous in space and the open field, which aligns with his receiving skill set. If they wanted to get him 70-80 receptions (without referencing last year), he could be the receiving component of a Faulk, Westbrook, Bush, split out like a WR, just not run as much as them (especially the first two).

* I agree the 300 attempt number seems high, the 230 low, and 280 looks, if not exactly in the middle of those two, is within 25 carries of that (255 exactly in the middle of 230 and 280), about 1.5 carries per game. I think he has at least 250 carries, and won't be a surprise to me if he pushes up to the 275-280 range or higher).

 

[Sabertooth]

@ him not doing much more. Of course I can't see the future, but anyone who would say something to that effect has to be a Gio owner in denial.

I owned both. Gio was hurt and he's simply too good to keep off the field. And neither of these guys can hold AJ Green's jock so it isn't like they are just going to go Triple Wing or something.

 

[cstu]

Within the time frame noted above of the last nine game proration for Hill, 172-929 = 5.4

That was very impressive - in fact he had the highest YPC over that period of any RB.

However, he also averaged 3.9 YPC in the first 7 games - does he pick up right where he left off last year or is he somewhere in the middle - like the 4.7 YPC I used?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

So assuming the Bengals run 1050 total plays at 48.3% rushing attempts that is 507 rushing attempts. If Hill gets 45.1% of those that is 229 rushing attempts.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

And during that stretch, hill had big games against a struggling Denver team and a Manziel led browns team but he also had 40 and 46 yard performances against the steelers and bucs

lastly, lots of running backs get hot in the second half, running on fresh legs against beat up defenses and teams that are eliminated from the playoffs. second half splits can be deceptive.

stop

 

[Biabreakable]

Hue Jackson was the RB coach in 2013 and there is some continuity in plan and design that began in 2013 I think. Jackson was certainly a part of the Bengals decision to draft Bernard and Hill. I would not be so quick to assume there is a changing of this 40/60 split in rushing attempts that was also evident in 2013. Hill is obviously a better player than BJGE and so more productive. But it was a very similar number of rushing attempts.

In 2013 Bernard had 614 offensive snaps (54.3%) BJGE had 464 (41%)

Snap counts for RB in 2014 were

Bernard 509 (47.9%)
Hill 501 (47.2%)

Jeremy Hill had 13.9 rushing attempts/game in 2014

In seven games he had more than 14 carries. Week 2, Week 8, week 10, week 11, Week 14-16

Week 2 was vs Atlanta, Bernard had 27 carries for 90 yards to Hills 15 carries for 74 yards.

Week 8 was vs Jacksonville. Bernard did not play in this game. Hill has 24 carries for 154 yards and 2TD

Week 10 was vs the Saints, Bernard did not play in this game. Hill had 27 carries for 152 yards.

Weel 11 was vs the Texans. Bernard had 17 carries 45 yards in this game. Hill had 18 carries for 87 yards and a TD.

The last 3 weeks of the season Hill had 25, 22, 23 carries. Bernard had 15, 8, 3

Snap counts by week

Week 1 Hill 10 Bernard 57

Week 2 Hill 30 Bernard 45

Week 3 Hill 15 Bernard 39

Week 4 BYE

Week 5 Hill 11 Bernard 42

Week 6 Hill 27 Bernard 55

Week 7 Hill 17 Bernard 40

Week 8 Hill 31 Bernard 36

Week 9 Hill 44 Bernard 0

Week 10 Hill 47 Bernard 0

Week 11 Hill 49 Bernard 0

Week 12 Hill 32 Bernard 49

Week 13 Hill 31 Bernard 30

Week 14 Hill 30 Bernard 34

Week 15 Hill 46 Bernard 28

Week 16 Hill 39 Bernard 24

Week 17 Hill 42 Bernard 30

So the offensive snaps do not turn in Hills favor until Bernard was injured. After Bernard returned it was a pretty even split of snaps for the next 3 weeks. The final 3 weeks is when snaps shifted in Hills favor.

Yet Bernard still had 30, 28 and 24 snaps during those weeks. Bernard was targeted 3, 8 and 5 times making 15 receptions on 16 targets. Hill was targeted 4 times for 3 receptions during the final 3 weeks.

 

[humpback]

Why are you assuming gio was 100%? Just because he was able to be on the field again doesn't mean he was fully healthy. there are two logical explanations that both make sense - hill earned more time while gio was out, or the team cut back on gio's carries once he got back. Both are viable.

And during that stretch, hill had big games against a struggling Denver team and a Manziel led browns team but he also had 40 and 46 yard performances against the steelers and bucs.

lastly, lots of running backs get hot in the second half, running on fresh legs against beat up defenses and teams that are eliminated from the playoffs. second half splits can be deceptive.

I know this will sounds stubborn, but i stand by most if what i said since the start of this thread. That includes the roster poison line in its original context. i also acknowledge that was dead wrong about his dynasty trade value - it went through the roof when he blew up during the second half of the season.

I get that people won championships with him. As I said from the start, if things paned out well for him - especially a gio injury - he could easily have a great year mixed in with some mediocrity. it not only happened early but he got hot at the right time. and he looks every bit as talented as you guys said. Kudos to his owners for getting quality value from him already. personally I would try to maximize that value by trading a player with a structural deficiency for one that doesn't have a gio in the backfield with him. I don't blame anyone for hoping he can keep this up, but I think it's a bad bet.

Both are likely IMO. Hill dominated while Gio was out, earning him more carries, and Gio has been a pedestrian runner so far in his career, earning him less. His injury history doesn't help either.

You managed to stand by your "roster poison" position while also admitting that he won people championships. Neat.

 

[Biabreakable]

If you assume a 60/40 split in rushing attempts of 422 to the two main RB. In Hills favor that would be 253 for Hill 169 for Bernard. This would be 16 rushing attempts/game which is two more than what he averaged in 2014. 10.5 rushing attempts/game for Bernard would be about 2/game less than the caries he was getting last season and more similar to his rushing attempts as a rookie.

What I am getting at with the offensive snaps and so on is that this split might be closer to 50/50 while the rushing attempts are still slanted towards Hill 60/40.

As for targets in the passing game Bernard had 71 in 2013 and was on pace for 73 in 2014. That seems pretty consistent to be able to expect 4+ targets/game for Bernard. Hill averaged 2 targets/game in 2014.

 

[bostonfred]

If everything works out right for Hill for a year, he might have a low end RB1 season, then fade back to RB2/RB3 status playing alongside another talented back in a talented offense. That would be a hugely successful fantasy career for Hill over the next four years. It's not impossible for him to be relevant for fits and spurts, but it's pretty close to impossible for him to have sustained success as a dynasty back.

Yes, I stand by this. Lots of things worked right for him last year, most notably the gio injury, but other things too. he put up low end RB1 numbers, as I said. Those numbers came at just the right time for teams to capitalize on it, which is great. But that doesn't change my overall opinion of the player.

If he carries this momentum into next year, I'll agree that he's worth RB1 prices. But he's already fetching RB1 trade value. I'd much rather cash in than wait and see but I understand the temptation to believe that this is sustainable.

 

[Jeremy's Spoken]

If everything works out right for Hill for a year, he might have a low end RB1 season, then fade back to RB2/RB3 status playing alongside another talented back in a talented offense. That would be a hugely successful fantasy career for Hill over the next four years. It's not impossible for him to be relevant for fits and spurts, but it's pretty close to impossible for him to have sustained success as a dynasty back.

Yes, I stand by this. Lots of things worked right for him last year, most notably the gio injury, but other things too. he put up low end RB1 numbers, as I said. Those numbers came at just the right time for teams to capitalize on it, which is great. But that doesn't change my overall opinion of the player. If he carries this momentum into next year, I'll agree that he's worth RB1 prices. But he's already fetching RB1 trade value. I'd much rather cash in than wait and see but I understand the temptation to believe that this is sustainable.

If everything works out right for Hill for a year, he might have a low end RB1 season, then fade back to RB2/RB3 status playing alongside another talented back in a talented offense. That would be a hugely successful fantasy career for Hill over the next four years. It's not impossible for him to be relevant for fits and spurts, but it's pretty close to impossible for him to have sustained success as a dynasty back.

Yes, I stand by this. Lots of things worked right for him last year, most notably the gio injury, but other things too. he put up low end RB1 numbers, as I said. Those numbers came at just the right time for teams to capitalize on it, which is great. But that doesn't change my overall opinion of the player. If he carries this momentum into next year, I'll agree that he's worth RB1 prices. But he's already fetching RB1 trade value. I'd much rather cash in than wait and see but I understand the temptation to believe that this is sustainable.

You are a real peach/gem...#fool

90% aren't even listening to you anymore!

 

[amicsta]

In response to the back and forth, I think that bostonfred is currently arguing that there is some growth priced into Hill's current dynasty price, which seems unlikely due to the presence of Gio. There could actually be some merit to that if we're talking per game numbers and not cumulative from 2014.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

If everything works out right for Hill for a year, he might have a low end RB1 season, then fade back to RB2/RB3 status playing alongside another talented back in a talented offense. That would be a hugely successful fantasy career for Hill over the next four years. It's not impossible for him to be relevant for fits and spurts, but it's pretty close to impossible for him to have sustained success as a dynasty back.

Yes, I stand by this. Lots of things worked right for him last year, most notably the gio injury, but other things too. he put up low end RB1 numbers, as I said. Those numbers came at just the right time for teams to capitalize on it, which is great. But that doesn't change my overall opinion of the player. If he carries this momentum into next year, I'll agree that he's worth RB1 prices. But he's already fetching RB1 trade value. I'd much rather cash in than wait and see but I understand the temptation to believe that this is sustainable.

If everything works out right for Hill for a year, he might have a low end RB1 season, then fade back to RB2/RB3 status playing alongside another talented back in a talented offense. That would be a hugely successful fantasy career for Hill over the next four years. It's not impossible for him to be relevant for fits and spurts, but it's pretty close to impossible for him to have sustained success as a dynasty back.

Yes, I stand by this. Lots of things worked right for him last year, most notably the gio injury, but other things too. he put up low end RB1 numbers, as I said. Those numbers came at just the right time for teams to capitalize on it, which is great. But that doesn't change my overall opinion of the player. If he carries this momentum into next year, I'll agree that he's worth RB1 prices. But he's already fetching RB1 trade value. I'd much rather cash in than wait and see but I understand the temptation to believe that this is sustainable.

You are a real peach/gem...#fool

90% aren't even listening to you anymore!

Geez, why the hostile response? I am pretty high on Hill's prospects but BF's take is reasonable and doesn't merit this type of response. Boo!

 

[cstu]

Take for what it's worth - in the games where Hill rushed for over 100 yards:

Jags - 27th in yards allowed, 12th in Y/A.

Saints - 29th in yards allowed, 31th in Y/A.

Browns -32nd in yards allowed, 28th in Y/A.

Broncos - 2nd in yards allowed, 4th in Y/A

- Hill had an 85 yard TD, 21 carries for 62 yards (2.95 YPC) the rest of the game, lost a fumble on the Denver 7 (his 5th on the year)

Steelers - 6th in yards allowed, 25th in Y/A.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Of course CLE and PIT (weird split, I assume teams passed more on them?) from the list above they get twice each, as well as BAL.

This year for non-divisional opponents, they get the West (NFC and AFC), as well as BUF and HOU.

http://www.bengals.com/schedule/2015-opponents.html

 

[Bob Magaw]

2014: Best of Jeremy Hill (CIN team highlight video), after looking at it, worst ever, more heaviliy edited than a Bourne-movie, strobe-like, possibly seizure-inducing.

http://www.bengals.com/media-lounge/videos/2014-Best-of-Jeremy-Hill/55d9709c-bf81-4d58-997c-a3a4267ed32e

Hill's '14 highlights (more like it), look at his feet in and through the hole at the 2:25 mark, rare agility, COD, movement skills and elusiveness for a big back. Also, his downfield vision is really impressive, as well as his ability to get back up to speed quickly after cutting or broken tackles, changing gears and sometimes flashes an extra top end gear. Grown man stiff arm. This is a highlight video, but he looks decisive, quick, strong and capable around the goal line, not sure if there were a lot of times he was repulsed. This brings up the point that it isn't a bad thing A.J. Green is on the team, who has some of if not the best numbers ever for a WR at a comparable stage of development. A strong passing game will put them in scoring position more often, so from Hill's perspective, that can't happen often enough. I think of Green's presence as a positive for his overall value.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M40Oysdsu_M

* I think he has star written all over him, with or without Bernard. Easily one of the best young RBs in the league. LSU was well represented in '14 by Hill and Beckham, as well as Landry.

Please address each other respectfully in this thread, even if you don't agree with their position, or it is isn't popular, whatever. Thanks.

 

[Donnybrook]

Impressive highlights but I find it very easy to dislike Hill and his unprofessional antics. "Act like you been there before" is a concept lost on him.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I loved that about Sanders.

That said, if Hill makes a fool of himself in the end zone 10-12-15 times this year, I'll be OK with it, since it meant he was scoring, and if all things aren't equal, which they rarely are, would take him over a more mild mannered RB that doesn't score as much. Michael Irvin was a very passionate, demonstrative player on the field, but was a great player, some people just express themselves differently. Especially if there aren't stupid celebrations that cost penalties, it doesn't bother me, per se.

He does have character red flags and off field issues in his background, which if people aren't aware of, should be, if they are thinking about acquiring him. At least do so from an informed place. I have some level of concern, it wasn't enough to prevent me from acquiring him in the first place, and I haven't heard of any issues in CIN that would cause me to rethink the original risk assessment decision.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

hill earned more time while gio was outt.

You could have saved your self a lot of time and just stopped there, since, you know, that's exactly what Hue Jackson said at the time.

On a positive note, Jermaine Greschem is no longer on the team. He was a big part of the reason that Hill would be roster poison, so that has to be a good thing.

 

[ghostguy123]

Impressive highlights but I find it very easy to dislike Hill and his unprofessional antics. "Act like you been there before" is a concept lost on him.

But he was a rookie, and he had never been there before

 

[tdmills]

Please address each other respectfully in this thread, even if you don't agree with their position, or it is isn't popular, whatever. Thanks.

To: Bob Magaw

Practice what you preach

From: The guy that opposed you in those Sammy Watkins debates