In talking about the reality of their situations, IMO there is a lot of interpretation going on. You seem to see more negative than positive things with Hill's situation, and vice verce with Freeman. I'm not sure if that is the reality of the situation, but how you see it. Not unlike me, but I acknowledge it is my interpretation, not that the reality of either situation is so clear and obvious that it dictates how we should look at this. Ultimately, there is speculation coming from both sides, and all we can invoke, is not reality, but our ability to marshall as coherent and well reasoned a position that accounts for the known facts as possible, and let those in the thread decide for themselves which position makes the most sense, or if in fact a synthesis combining the strengths of several positions and attempting to eliminate their weaknesses best accounts for the situation.
That was a good post. I dont want to quote the whole thing but i will touch on a couple points. First is this one. I am not specifically advocating for freeman here. I am advocating against spending an early pick on hill. And yes, i know that some adp info shows him going late, but there are plenty of people talking about him as a first round pick. As a late second, hes a fine pick. But in a draft this deep, its a crime to take a low upside player early. If you dont like freeman, take a receiver. If you dont like a receiver, see what you can get for the pick.
That may seem to be my unreasonably harsh critique of his situation, but i don't think anyone here has actually refuted it. They've disagreed, but mostly with generalities about how there's plenty of room to do well in this offense, and how its possible for people to do well in rbbcs. And that's fine. But nobody seems to have examples of rbbc backs who were legit studs for more than a year while sharing with another very good back. And while plenty of people think hill is uber talented, nobody seems to be saying that he's going to push gio into a minor role.
So when push comes to shove, the best and most optimistic projections for hill are still just above average numbers for a committee back. Which is good, but hardly dominant. And again, for a second round pick, I will take good but not dominant. But for a first round pick, I don't want someone whose upside is good but not dominant. And we all seem to agree on that part going in.
again, I think people are misunderstanding my point here. I've never questioned hill's talent, and never said he cant or wont be a top 30 back with top 20 upside. In fact I've strongly agreed with people who said that about him. I just think that a top 30 back with top 20 upside is a bad pick in the first round.
Now, a few people have tried to argue that his stats could be even better than top 20. Like your post, where you showed that hes capable of handling a full workload, and of catching the ball, and certainly scoring. And believe it or not, I agree. I think he could flirt with borderline rb1 numbers, and I think an optimistic projection is that he will do so once in the next four years. I gave him a very optimistic 5 ypc, a higher than most 240 carries, a very reasonable 20 receptions as a higher than average 10 ypr. And thats still low end rb1 territory, or rb2 in a ppr. that's his best case scenario without a gio injury. And nobody seems to be projecting much more than that.
A few other people have mentioned how well he would do if gio got hurt. and that's probably true. But there are plenty of backup rbs who would excel if someone got hurt, and none of them are worth a first round rookie pick. you could trade your first round pick right now for a serviceable rb2 type and a backup rb who would do well if their starter got hurt, and you'd still get more in return. I suppose there's some utility to only using one roster spot for both things, but its not really exciting to me.
I don't think that's a specific or unfair take on the situation, but you're welcome to refute any part of it you like. Do you think hill will push gio to the side? Do you think he will get more than 240 carries? More than 10 tds? More than 20 receptions? More than 5 yards per carry? More than 10 yards per reception? Do you think he will exceed those numbers every single year while gio is there? Where specifically do you think im being unfair?
Or, if you don't think that's unfair, then tell me why you would spend a first round pick on a guy like that?
The answers I've gotten so far have said im on crack, im using a crystal ball, I made the worst post in the thread, and a whole lot of arguments about freeman, when I didn't bring him up. That's a separate conversation for a separate thread, and I only responded about him because I think he's a totally different type of play. He has a direct path to a starting job that doesn't require jackson to get hurt. Maybe freemans just awesome and wins the job outright. Maybe sjax retires. Maybe freeman starts spelling him more often and slowly takes more carries then takes the job next year. Maybe they draft a guy next year and freeman wins the job. Forget for a minute what you think about freemans talent, the point is just that he has a path to the job. Its an entirely separate conversation as to whether he is talented enough that he can actually win or hold or even be allowed to compete for the job. The only thing I know about that is that he's got slow measurables, especially for a smaller back, but has a good all around skillset, and the coach and gm have talked about him as a lead back and three down back. that might be coach speak, but the point is that they're thinking of him in that light, which means he has an entirely different upside case than hill.
Freeman could easily flame out, but he might be the perennial rb1 on a very good offense. Hill probably wont flame out, but he has a low ceiling/high floor. He would be an instant stud for the rest of the year if gio got hurt, but otherwise, low end rb1/high end rb2 numbers are his best case, and he's probably going to be more of a rb2/rb3 type in the 20-30 range. for a first round pick, I think you take the higher upside guy, or trade the pick, but you don't settle for the lower upside guy even if you love his talent. The negativity in this thread from people who disagree is not unusual, but disappointing.