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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (1 Viewer)

I love what I am seeing out of Hill, but remember that he only got 4 touches in Week 1, and they have some tough match-ups after their week 4 bye, so while I am pleased about his potential, I am not getting too excited just yet.
I heard the OC state they didn't want to give Hill too many touches in the first game because they were on the road and this was his first game. I'll be starting him this week in one league.

 
Bottom line: Gio will not maintain this pace, Hill has room to grow. Will be fun to watch as it plays out

 
I have not gotten to see tape of either of his first two games. What does the eye-test look like?
I watched both games on rewind. He looked strong and decisive with his decisions. On his first catch in the ATL game, he caught the ball, turned up field quickly, made a nice cut to avoid a tackle and picked up 17 on the play I believe.

 
You know who's really good? Jeremey hill, thats who. Hes a stud. I mean, so is Aj green. Oh, and eifert. He's a tier one talent. And so is gresham. And that marvin jones kid. What a beast he's turned out to be. And sanu, too. But man just look at that giovanni bernard.
Any lingering concerns about Gresham cutting deeply into Hill's touches?
Yes, on a fully stocked Cinci team he's just one more mouth getting fed. That's been my whole point all along.
And I answered it.
I asked to consider Gresham by himself a second time, after using phrases like fully stocked Cinci team and one more mouth to feed, which connoted that you weren't doing that (you were describing him additively in the context of all the other receiving weapons, not in isolation and by himself). Repeating yourself just reinforces that you seem to continue to misunderstand the question. Concern that GRESHAM will cut DEEPLY into Hill's touches hasn't been your point all along, and that is what I'm trying to ask.

In other words, if you knew nothing about CIN receiving weapons except that they had Gresham, would he be a reason to not draft Hill for many people? Probably not. Why? Because he isn't that great. He had a promising start to his career, but not too many people would call him one of the top TEs in the league now. If his presence wouldn't be a deal breaker in isolation as a marginal TE (if he is a TE2, he must be roster poison if you are consistent, right - he finished in about the 20s last year, and is in the 30s so far this season - or is it just RBs that are roster poison if they are less than elite #1 options at their position?), why would it make much incremental difference when added in with the others.

Put another way, if Gresham had been suspended all of 2014 (or leaves in free agency next year), would you all of a sudden think that Hill wasn't roster poison? I somehow find that dubious. What clearer evidence to yourself, if you need it, that he doesn't factor into your decision very much, if at all, and is a red herring (and frivolous objection*). You just don't like Hill period, because in your quaint terminology, he is roster poison. But for somebody evaluating Hill without that bias, if the presence of Bernard, Green, Jones and Eifert (primary receiving weapons, Sanu likely wouldn't have as prominent a role if Jones were healthy) hadn't dissuaded them from drafting Hill, and they were already inclined to do so, imo, there would be virtually NOBODY that that would say to themselves, OH NO, I FORGOT ABOUT GRESHAM, I WAS ALL SET TO TAKE HILL, BUT NOW I'LL HAVE TO PASS, BECAUSE HE IS SO DARN GOOD HE TIPS THE SCALES AGAINST THE PICK. :)

* If Gresham signs with ATL in 2015, how much does Hill surge up your board with the GAPING hole to the overall offense left by his departure? Zero? How much will Freeman drop with the insertion of Gresham into the offense. Not at all? If you are purportedly concerned about Gresham cutting DEEPLY into Hill's touches ("And I answered it"), but not Freeman, I don't think Gresham would explain that discrepancy (the constant in those two respective equations). It would speak more to the fact that you dislike Hill and like Freeman.

 
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Cheesedawg said:
I have not gotten to see tape of either of his first two games. What does the eye-test look like?
He's quicker than I expected. Hits holes hard and is fine in passing game. I still think he's a 10 touch per game guy this year, which doesn't excite me much for fantasy, but he's looked really good IMO
 
Week 1: nobody started him. 4 rushes, 19 yards.

Week 2: apparently everybody started him. Coincidentally he has 96 yards and a touchdown.
I plan on starting him again this week, likely in all 6 of the leagues that I started him Week 2.

If for some reason that changes I'll let you know.

 
As far as the sustainability of the number of carries, here's some data:

Last year, there were 4 teams with at least 500 carries, or 31.25 carries/game. Buffalo led the league with more than 34 carries/game (546 total).

In 2 games so far this season, there are 6 teams with at least 31.25 carries/game. Cinci is one of them with 35.5 attempts/game so far.

Cinci averaged just over 30 carries/game last season with 481 total. That was good for 8th most in the league.

Last year:

BJGE = 3.4 YPC, 220 carries, 13.75 carries/game

Gio = 4.1 YPC, 170 carries, 10.625 carries/game

This year:

Gio = 3.4 YPC, 41 carries, 20.5 carries/game

Hill = 4.9 YPC, 19 carries, 9.5 carries/game

 
Cincy probably has a top 5 D and a top 10 offense, so more often than not the game scripts are going to be similar to last week. Not that they'll be running the ball 45 times per game, but theyre going to be winning most of their games in the 2nd half and running plenty. The games where theyre down 10+ pts in the 2nd half - where Hill would be pushed to the side more possibly - should be few and far between. As the previous post states, they averaged over 30 carries per game last year and I wouldnt be surprised if that goes up a bit near 35 cpg with Hue. Which Im guessing puts them on avg as Gio 17-20 cpg and Hill 13-16 cpg. And of course if Gio misses any games Hill is a RB1.

Anyway as for this week, why do FBGs have him ranked so low? Dodds and Tremblay both have him around RB40 with a great matchup vs TEN. Im actually considering sitting Emmanuel Sanders @ SEA for Hill this week (starting Jennings, Sproles, Khiry over Hill as of now).

 
Cincy probably has a top 5 D and a top 10 offense, so more often than not the game scripts are going to be similar to last week. Not that they'll be running the ball 45 times per game, but theyre going to be winning most of their games in the 2nd half and running plenty. The games where theyre down 10+ pts in the 2nd half - where Hill would be pushed to the side more possibly - should be few and far between. As the previous post states, they averaged over 30 carries per game last year and I wouldnt be surprised if that goes up a bit near 35 cpg with Hue. Which Im guessing puts them on avg as Gio 17-20 cpg and Hill 13-16 cpg. And of course if Gio misses any games Hill is a RB1.

Anyway as for this week, why do FBGs have him ranked so low? Dodds and Tremblay both have him around RB40 with a great matchup vs TEN. Im actually considering sitting Emmanuel Sanders @ SEA for Hill this week (starting Jennings, Sproles, Khiry over Hill as of now).
I agree with what you said. They might have him so low because the sample size is too small to know, without a doubt, how the Bengals are going to use him. Still, it's surprising considering the current state of the RB position in fantasy.

 
I drafted better players than Hill this year but he is my favorite pick on my roster. I took him above his ADP in the 8th round. I know there are 11 guys in my league who wish they had him right now.

 
Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.
Hill owners got very lucky yesterday with the TD... Although he gave you 9 points, yesterday has to be cause for pause?

 
Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.
If AJ Green doesnt get hurt Hill doesnt see the field this many times and Gio doesnt get this many touches. Last week will not be the norm IMO
This. So long as they have AJ and Gio healthy Hill will not be consistant enough to start

 
Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.
If AJ Green doesnt get hurt Hill doesnt see the field this many times and Gio doesnt get this many touches. Last week will not be the norm IMO
This. So long as they have AJ and Gio healthy Hill will not be consistant enough to start
Explain THIS week then.
 
Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.
Hill owners got very lucky yesterday with the TD... Although he gave you 9 points, yesterday has to be cause for pause?
Lucky? One of the main reasons anyone liked Hill going in was that he is a guy who could score TDs on limited touches. This is about what we expected.
 
Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.
Hill owners got very lucky yesterday with the TD... Although he gave you 9 points, yesterday has to be cause for pause?
Lucky? One of the main reasons anyone liked Hill going in was that he is a guy who could score TDs on limited touches. This is about what we expected.
Really? Reading through the previous 13 pages I didn't see it mentioned that there would be a hope for a 4th quarter TD while up 26-0 :shrug:

I find it even more interesting that Gio got all of the inside the 5 touches before this one got out of hand. Tough to get those TDs when you're not getting the touches.

He appears to be a cornerstone piece of any title contending team IMO.

 
Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.
If AJ Green doesnt get hurt Hill doesnt see the field this many times and Gio doesnt get this many touches. Last week will not be the norm IMO
This. So long as they have AJ and Gio healthy Hill will not be consistant enough to start
Explain THIS week then.
:confused:

17 touches last week with no AJ Green

7 this week with AJ and a blowout

Unless AJ or Gio miss games you'll live in the 7-8-9 ppg range for PPR and that's going to be TD driven

 
Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.
If AJ Green doesnt get hurt Hill doesnt see the field this many times and Gio doesnt get this many touches. Last week will not be the norm IMO
This. So long as they have AJ and Gio healthy Hill will not be consistant enough to start
Explain THIS week then.
:confused:

17 touches last week with no AJ Green

7 this week with AJ and a blowout

Unless AJ or Gio miss games you'll live in the 7-8-9 ppg range for PPR and that's going to be TD driven
And Gio only had 15 touches.
 
Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.
If AJ Green doesnt get hurt Hill doesnt see the field this many times and Gio doesnt get this many touches. Last week will not be the norm IMO
This. So long as they have AJ and Gio healthy Hill will not be consistant enough to start
Explain THIS week then.
:confused:

17 touches last week with no AJ Green

7 this week with AJ and a blowout

Unless AJ or Gio miss games you'll live in the 7-8-9 ppg range for PPR and that's going to be TD driven
And Gio only had 15 touches.
When did Gio get his touches and when did Hill get his?

 
Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.
If AJ Green doesnt get hurt Hill doesnt see the field this many times and Gio doesnt get this many touches. Last week will not be the norm IMO
This. So long as they have AJ and Gio healthy Hill will not be consistant enough to start
Explain THIS week then.
:confused: 17 touches last week with no AJ Green

7 this week with AJ and a blowout

Unless AJ or Gio miss games you'll live in the 7-8-9 ppg range for PPR and that's going to be TD driven
And Gio only had 15 touches.
When did Gio get his touches and when did Hill get his?
They've been rotating series 2 to 1 for Gio all season long from what I've seen. So Gio on the first 2, then Hill the 3rd. Rinse and recycle.
 
Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.
If AJ Green doesnt get hurt Hill doesnt see the field this many times and Gio doesnt get this many touches. Last week will not be the norm IMO
This. So long as they have AJ and Gio healthy Hill will not be consistant enough to start
Explain THIS week then.
:confused: 17 touches last week with no AJ Green

7 this week with AJ and a blowout

Unless AJ or Gio miss games you'll live in the 7-8-9 ppg range for PPR and that's going to be TD driven
And Gio only had 15 touches.
When did Gio get his touches and when did Hill get his?
They've been rotating series 2 to 1 for Gio all season long from what I've seen. So Gio on the first 2, then Hill the 3rd. Rinse and recycle.
If you have a point please make it :coffee:

 
The point is rather clear. Hill can be fantasy relevant, and has now, on limited touches in Cinci. Cinci is a great team and will put him in position to score even in limited action. You picked an odd week to pat yourself on the back when essentially the opposite of what you say is going to happen, happened.

 
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The point is rather clear. Hill can be fantasy relevant, and has now, on limited touches in Cinci. Cinci is a great team and will put him in position to score even in limited action. You picked an odd week to pat yourself on the back when essentially the opposite of what you say is going to happen, happened.
In PPR he has a 1.9, 17.6 & 9.9...IMHO they only reason there was a bump in everytihing was cause AJ left the game.

You and I also have different definitions of of relevant as well.

 
The Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Dehner guesses Jeremy Hill will handle 8-13 carries in Sunday night's game at New England.
Hill has carry totals of 4, 15, and 7 through three games. Dehner admits OC Hue Jackson distributes carries "based on feel," but 8-13 seems like a good guess against a Patriots defense that was gashed by Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis on Monday night, and is now playing on a short week. From a going-forward standpoint, Dehner anticipates Hill's workload will "ramp up as (the) season goes."
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9409/jeremy-hill

Thoughts on production vs. NE? 9-45-1?

 
The Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Dehner guesses Jeremy Hill will handle 8-13 carries in Sunday night's game at New England.
Hill has carry totals of 4, 15, and 7 through three games. Dehner admits OC Hue Jackson distributes carries "based on feel," but 8-13 seems like a good guess against a Patriots defense that was gashed by Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis on Monday night, and is now playing on a short week. From a going-forward standpoint, Dehner anticipates Hill's workload will "ramp up as (the) season goes."
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9409/jeremy-hill

Thoughts on production vs. NE? 9-45-1?
im gonna say cinci rolls and then they use hill to finish off the pats. 14-70-1

 
Rotoworld:

The Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Dehner guesses Jeremy Hill will handle 8-13 carries in Sunday night's game at New England.

Hill has carry totals of 4, 15, and 7 through three games. Dehner admits OC Hue Jackson distributes carries "based on feel," but 8-13 seems like a good guess against a Patriots defense that was gashed by Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis on Monday night, and is now playing on a short week. From a going-forward standpoint, Dehner anticipates Hill's workload will "ramp up as (the) season goes."


Source: Paul Dehner on Twitter
Oct 5 - 11:22 AM
 
Rotoworld:

The Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Dehner guesses Jeremy Hill will handle 8-13 carries in Sunday night's game at New England.

Hill has carry totals of 4, 15, and 7 through three games. Dehner admits OC Hue Jackson distributes carries "based on feel," but 8-13 seems like a good guess against a Patriots defense that was gashed by Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis on Monday night, and is now playing on a short week. From a going-forward standpoint, Dehner anticipates Hill's workload will "ramp up as (the) season goes."

Source: Paul Dehner on Twitter

Oct 5 - 11:22 AM
I'll take it.

 
Week 1 mostly not started.

Week 2 spot started.

Week 3 consistently started.

Week 4 bye

Week 5 consistently started?

 
Why is he unstartable? I'd say putting up 69 yards and 3 catches with limited playing time was pretty good. His touches and playing time should only go up. I doubt they'll have many other games where they get blown out early (which is why he wasn't out there much).

 
I think this shows why it's tough for one team to support two productive FF backs. When everything is going smoothly and you're able to run the ball a lot, there might be enough touches to feed both guys. But in games where things get ugly, someone inevitably has to suffer. The Bengals ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing attempts per game over the first four weeks of the season, averaging 34 attempts per game. Tonight they fell behind early and had to abandon their usual approach. They only ran the ball 19 times, which is just over half of their pace from their first three games.

They ran the ball 30 times per game last season (8th in the league) even with BJGE being a black hole of production, so clearly they have a desire to run. That will probably continue and most games won't be as brutal as this one. However, this is the big difference between having a back who gets the majority of his team's work and having a guy who gets the table scraps. When there are no table scraps to be had, he doesn't eat.

 
Right now Hill is unquestionably the best back the Bengals have at running the ball. If your a fan of the Bengals and are familiar with the coach this doesn't matter.

Gio is an all-down bell-cow back in the eyes of these coachs and no matter how many times he struggle sup the middle they keep calling his name.

I wouldn't expect this to change at all this year and would advise against sitting Hill if your looking for anything more then a Mike Tolbert type role

 
I think this shows why it's tough for one team to support two productive FF backs. When everything is going smoothly and you're able to run the ball a lot, there might be enough touches to feed both guys. But in games where things get ugly, someone inevitably has to suffer. The Bengals ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing attempts per game over the first four weeks of the season, averaging 34 attempts per game. Tonight they fell behind early and had to abandon their usual approach. They only ran the ball 19 times, which is just over half of their pace from their first three games.

They ran the ball 30 times per game last season (8th in the league) even with BJGE being a black hole of production, so clearly they have a desire to run. That will probably continue and most games won't be as brutal as this one. However, this is the big difference between having a back who gets the majority of his team's work and having a guy who gets the table scraps. When there are no table scraps to be had, he doesn't eat.
Most of this is plainly obvious, although I disagree about the table scraps part.

 

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