Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (5 Viewers)

[Bob Magaw]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more. In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

Really? Even though he had 50 carries, the first half of the season. Also, 27 catches isn't next to zero.

For the sake of accuracy, he had 74 carries in the first half of the season and Gio was out for 3 games in the 2nd half of the season. And yes, you are correct in saying that 27 catches is more than zero. I was scanning over his game splits and saw alot of 1 and 0 catch games. However, I see that 27 catch total being around his ceiling as well.

Last season, the Bengals had the 5th most rushes in the NFL and they also had only 503 pass attempts ... down 83 attempts from the previous season. I have to assume the dip in pass attempts is directly related to AJ Green missing 5 games.

Passing Attempts: 590(2010), 535(2011), 540(2012), 587(2013), 503(2014)

Rushing attempts: 428(2010), 455(2011), 430(2012), 481(2013), 492(2014)

So if we are assuming everyone stays healthy (which we have to when projecting stats), I see a bump in pass attempts back to the 550+ range. More pass attempts plays more into Gio's hands than Hill's. Also, if Gio is healthy (as well as hill), that's 3 more games where Gio cuts into Hill's carries.

Also, Cinci was tied for the 23rd hardest schedule by record last season. Easy schedules for teams that can run the ball generally equate to more rushing attempts.

In 2015, they are facing the 2nd hardest strength of schedule by last year's record.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25066031/2015-nfl-strength-of-schedule-steelers-at-no-1-falcons-at-no-32

They also will have the HARDEST fantasy schedule for RB's in the league this coming season.

http://fftoolbox.scout.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm

So the facts seem to stack up against Jeremy Hill improving upon his 2014 season:

- 2014 peak in team rushing attempts

- 2014 pass attempts plummeted

- 2014 AJ Green missed 5 games

- 2014 Gio Bernard missed 3 games

- 2014 Tyler Eifert missed almost the entire season

- 2015 2nd hardest schedule in the nfl

- 2015 #1 hardest fantasy schedule for RB's in the nfl

Well researched post.

I'll add a few things.

Before last season, new OC Hue Jackson* (a well known run game advocate) was talking about converting to a more balanced attack, with more rushing in the mix. Running more had already been predicted. So it is possible that if Green had not missed those games, a similar amount of OVERALL passes may have just been redistributed to him, instead of the receiving weapons further down the food chain who were the beneficiaries in his absence.

Sometimes in these threads, we could be writing about redraft, dynasty or both. I tend to generally think in terms of dynasty. So the SOS in 2015 wouldn't be a big red flag for me, in a dynasty context.

* I hadn't yet read Jurb's response when I posted this, but he beat me to it with the Hue Jackson point.

 

[jurb26]

It should also be pointed out that Hue stated he would get both RBs on the field at the same time, and did. Even if Cincy is down in games I don't think that totally negates Hill to th sideline. Plus, he's actually very good as a receiving back and in pass protection. Gio is just a bit better.

 

[mikmak8902]

Sometimes in these threads, we could be writing about redraft, dynasty or both. I tend to generally think in terms of dynasty. So the SOS in 2015 wouldn't be a big red flag for me, in a dynasty context.

* I hadn't yet read Jurb's response when I posted this, but he beat me to it with the Hue Jackson point.

I agree on the Dynasty point of view. Hill is clearly the lead back on this team and has more long term value than Gio especially considering 2016 will be Gio's last year under contract with the Bengals and I see them as a franchise that is on the rise.

And good call by yourself and Jurb on the Hue Jackson input. I didn't take that into account.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

I'm not sure that he is "way too talented". I like him, but he's had a 4.0 and 4.1 ypc in his first two seasons. He's not going to be a guy who "only" plays on 3rd downs (very few RBs are), but he doesn't seem to be a guy who thrives on a heavy workload of running between the tackles either.

After Gio returned from injury last season, he averaged under 9 carries per game while Hill averaged nearly double at ~17.5. That seems to be as good of a guess as any at the split going forward, and based on last year that would give Hill ~280 carries. Seems like a reasonable projection, and it represents quite a bit more upside over the 222 carries he had last year.

The problem will be when/if Cincy gets behind in games and are playing catch up you will see a lot more Gio due to how dynamic he is as a pass catcher.

This situation is going to be annoying for the Hill owners that are looking for the 300 carry RB. There is going to be many weeks this thread gets bumped with people saying that Gio is getting far too many touches and Hill needs a bigger workload.

I think Cincy is going to use both guys and it will work for them. Hill will get the majority of rushing attempts for sure but Gio is still going to get 12-18 touches every week. Hill is a very good player and has a chance to be great, but people are underappreciating what Gio brings to an offense.

Gio had a 89 yard rushing TD last year, he also had a 22 yard receiving TD and 17 yard receiving td. In 5 of the 13 games he played he caught 4 or more passes. Barring injury he is going to catch 60 plus balls.

Hill is a work horse back and the better run between the tackles type. He obviously can bust some long runs himself, but Gio is a guy that will demand touches and brings you something different.

For the time being Hill can't be in the discussion with Lacy, Charles, Bell and company due to playing alongside a RB like Gio.

You're only focusing on one side- what happens when Cincy get ahead in games and wants to grind out the win? Obviously when they are way behind in the 4th qtr, Gio is going to get more playing time, but I don't expect that to happen very often, do you?

No one is saying that Gio stinks and isn't going to have a role, however after he returned Gio averaged 13 touches per game vs. 19 for Hill. Why do you think that would change substantially this year? FTR I'm not putting him in the discussion with those other guys, but I do think he clearly has upside over last season, simply due to the fact that he was a rookie who didn't play much until the 2nd half of the season. I think it's more likely that they stick to the splits in the 2nd half than the 1st.

Hill is going to have some very big games. I am not disputing that. He is going to get those carries when they are ahead and grinding out wins.

I think Hill will end the season with around 240 rushing attempts and close to 1200 yards on the ground. A good season is in line but not in the upper echelon of rb's. You know who had 1070 plus yards rushing last year: Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, Alfred Morris and Forsett. Now Hill is way better than these guys, but people are paying a premium in redraft for Hill and his upside this season is limited due to Gio. In dynasty it is much more appealing.

 

[jurb26]

Currently I have Hill as my #5 RB in dynasty.

In redraft I'd push him down to 8-10 range.

 

[humpback]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

I'm not sure that he is "way too talented". I like him, but he's had a 4.0 and 4.1 ypc in his first two seasons. He's not going to be a guy who "only" plays on 3rd downs (very few RBs are), but he doesn't seem to be a guy who thrives on a heavy workload of running between the tackles either.

After Gio returned from injury last season, he averaged under 9 carries per game while Hill averaged nearly double at ~17.5. That seems to be as good of a guess as any at the split going forward, and based on last year that would give Hill ~280 carries. Seems like a reasonable projection, and it represents quite a bit more upside over the 222 carries he had last year.

The problem will be when/if Cincy gets behind in games and are playing catch up you will see a lot more Gio due to how dynamic he is as a pass catcher.

This situation is going to be annoying for the Hill owners that are looking for the 300 carry RB. There is going to be many weeks this thread gets bumped with people saying that Gio is getting far too many touches and Hill needs a bigger workload.

I think Cincy is going to use both guys and it will work for them. Hill will get the majority of rushing attempts for sure but Gio is still going to get 12-18 touches every week. Hill is a very good player and has a chance to be great, but people are underappreciating what Gio brings to an offense.

Gio had a 89 yard rushing TD last year, he also had a 22 yard receiving TD and 17 yard receiving td. In 5 of the 13 games he played he caught 4 or more passes. Barring injury he is going to catch 60 plus balls.

Hill is a work horse back and the better run between the tackles type. He obviously can bust some long runs himself, but Gio is a guy that will demand touches and brings you something different.

For the time being Hill can't be in the discussion with Lacy, Charles, Bell and company due to playing alongside a RB like Gio.

You're only focusing on one side- what happens when Cincy get ahead in games and wants to grind out the win? Obviously when they are way behind in the 4th qtr, Gio is going to get more playing time, but I don't expect that to happen very often, do you?

No one is saying that Gio stinks and isn't going to have a role, however after he returned Gio averaged 13 touches per game vs. 19 for Hill. Why do you think that would change substantially this year? FTR I'm not putting him in the discussion with those other guys, but I do think he clearly has upside over last season, simply due to the fact that he was a rookie who didn't play much until the 2nd half of the season. I think it's more likely that they stick to the splits in the 2nd half than the 1st.

Hill is going to have some very big games. I am not disputing that. He is going to get those carries when they are ahead and grinding out wins.

I think Hill will end the season with around 240 rushing attempts and close to 1200 yards on the ground. A good season is in line but not in the upper echelon of rb's. You know who had 1070 plus yards rushing last year: Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, Alfred Morris and Forsett. Now Hill is way better than these guys, but people are paying a premium in redraft for Hill and his upside this season is limited due to Gio. In dynasty it is much more appealing.

I'm not sure why you quoted me then because I didn't put him in the upper echelon of RB's. I was replying to the guy who said last year was his ceiling, which I think is clearly incorrect.

 

[Nero]

Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.

Big mistake.

It could be, but I doubt it. I don't dispute that Hill had a good rookie season. He is on a good team and the starter got injured and he excelled and seized the job. I still don't think he is better than Gio, so I'm not inclined to place top 5 or even top 10 value on him. Things could turn out a lot different this year for him. Ameer plays behind an aging, injury prone starter on a good team. I like his chances of becoming the lead.

 

[Bob Magaw]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

I'm not sure that he is "way too talented". I like him, but he's had a 4.0 and 4.1 ypc in his first two seasons. He's not going to be a guy who "only" plays on 3rd downs (very few RBs are), but he doesn't seem to be a guy who thrives on a heavy workload of running between the tackles either.

After Gio returned from injury last season, he averaged under 9 carries per game while Hill averaged nearly double at ~17.5. That seems to be as good of a guess as any at the split going forward, and based on last year that would give Hill ~280 carries. Seems like a reasonable projection, and it represents quite a bit more upside over the 222 carries he had last year.

The problem will be when/if Cincy gets behind in games and are playing catch up you will see a lot more Gio due to how dynamic he is as a pass catcher.

This situation is going to be annoying for the Hill owners that are looking for the 300 carry RB. There is going to be many weeks this thread gets bumped with people saying that Gio is getting far too many touches and Hill needs a bigger workload.

I think Cincy is going to use both guys and it will work for them. Hill will get the majority of rushing attempts for sure but Gio is still going to get 12-18 touches every week. Hill is a very good player and has a chance to be great, but people are underappreciating what Gio brings to an offense.

Gio had a 89 yard rushing TD last year, he also had a 22 yard receiving TD and 17 yard receiving td. In 5 of the 13 games he played he caught 4 or more passes. Barring injury he is going to catch 60 plus balls.

Hill is a work horse back and the better run between the tackles type. He obviously can bust some long runs himself, but Gio is a guy that will demand touches and brings you something different.

For the time being Hill can't be in the discussion with Lacy, Charles, Bell and company due to playing alongside a RB like Gio.

You're only focusing on one side- what happens when Cincy get ahead in games and wants to grind out the win? Obviously when they are way behind in the 4th qtr, Gio is going to get more playing time, but I don't expect that to happen very often, do you?

No one is saying that Gio stinks and isn't going to have a role, however after he returned Gio averaged 13 touches per game vs. 19 for Hill. Why do you think that would change substantially this year? FTR I'm not putting him in the discussion with those other guys, but I do think he clearly has upside over last season, simply due to the fact that he was a rookie who didn't play much until the 2nd half of the season. I think it's more likely that they stick to the splits in the 2nd half than the 1st.

Right. It isn't like CIN is going to hit the panic button and throw every time if they get down by a FG in the first quarter. If they are down by 10+ points in the fourth quarter, it might be different.

It is one thing to have theoretical objections, another to just look at how the season transpired.

I count four games that fell into the blow out category:

Game 4 - NE 43/CIN 17

Game 6 - IND 27/CIN 0

Game 9 - CLE 24/CIN 3

Game 13 - PIT 42/CIN 21

Of the other 12 games:

CIN won 10 and had one tie (37-37 against CAR).

Oddly of the five losses, only one was a non-blow out:

Game 16 - PIT 27-17

* While it may be counterintuitive, A.J. Green playing a full season can be interpreted multiple ways, and not just taking carries away from Hill. He missed games 5-7, which included the tie with CAR and blow out loss to IND. CIN is seemingly more likely to keep games close or actually be in the lead when he is playing. Eifert's presence could similarly be a positive in this light. We do have to account for his returning, as well, but also for Gresham leaving. Eifert could slot into his place, Gresham's 62 receptions were 16 more than he had in 2013, and the second most of his career.

 

[Sabertooth]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

Yep. He's Sproles + for sure. Only so many touches to go around.

 

[humpback]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

Yep. He's Sproles + for sure. Only so many touches to go around.

It's a shame McCoy only had 340 touches last year...

 

[Bob Magaw]

Got offered Hill straight up for Ameer Abdullah. I guess the guy is not a believer in Hill. I was not a Hill fan coming out of LSU, so it was pretty easy for me to turn it down.

Big mistake.

It could be, but I doubt it. I don't dispute that Hill had a good rookie season. He is on a good team and the starter got injured and he excelled and seized the job. I still don't think he is better than Gio, so I'm not inclined to place top 5 or even top 10 value on him. Things could turn out a lot different this year for him. Ameer plays behind an aging, injury prone starter on a good team. I like his chances of becoming the lead.

You could be simultaneously underestimating Hill and overestimating Bernard.

RUSHING-WISE, Hill has 4 games with 147+ yards, in half a season as a starter. Bernard has 0 in two seasons (1 100 yard game).

A couple points I differ on. Hill didn't just have a good rookie season, but a great one by some measures, especially given he only started half the season. Again, if you look at the list of rookie RBs with around four games of 147+ yards, it is a really small list, and I think may include some Hall of Famers (and no busts?).

Although you don't think Hill is better than Bernard, more importantly, CIN seems to, at least as a pure rusher, which is why he averaged 50% more touches than Bernard after the latter returned (per humpback).

Bernard has had a few outstanding games (just not as many, on a percentage basis, as Hill). Game 13 as a rookie, he had 99 rushing yards and 49 receiving yards. As a soph, in game 2 against ATL, he had 90 rushing yards and 79 receiving yards, and game 5 against CAR, 137 rushing yards.

He is undersized and missed 3 games in 2014. If you look at his game logs for the two seasons, as a rookie, after the huge game 13, he had 33, 20 and 22 rushing yards (and three of his four worst Y/C average games). It seemed like he wore down. In 2014, injury may have played a role, but in Bernard's last 8 games, his Y/C average were as follows - 2.43, 2.81, 2.65, 4.90, 2.83, 5.27, 4.50 and 2.67. I'm not sure that fits the wearing down narrative, but more than half of those final 8 games went for under 3 Y/C. There have been rumblings from CIN even before last year, that they didn't want to wear down Bernard with too many carries, and that was when he was still the ostensible starter, unlike now. It makes sense to give Hill more carries, Bernard more receptions (so he can make up some of the lost carries with OVERALL TOUCHES coming from the passing game).

Bernard's career Y/C average in two seasons is 4.1.

Hill as a rookie was a full yard better at 5.1.

* Not trying to change your mind, just don't agree with all the points you're basing your opinion on, and discussions like this are in the best interests of the thread, so others can make the most informed decisions possible in parsing Hill, Bernard and the CIN backfield.

 

[Bob Magaw]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

Yep. He's Sproles + for sure. Only so many touches to go around.

It's a shame McCoy only had 340 touches last year...

 

[Bob Magaw]

jeremy hill played about half the snaps last year, in his rookie season

jeremy hill logged a mere 222 carries

jeremy hill played in 5 games with 20+ carries

jeremy hill put up 4 games of 145+ yards

who would you have to be to better that number?

who has put up 5+ games of 145+ yards in a single season?

Earl Campbell* 1980 - 373 carries (3rd yr)

Terrell Davis 1998 - 392 (4th yr)

Eric Dickerson* 1984 - 379 (2nd yr)

Adrian Peterson 2012 - 348 (6th yr)

Jim Brown* 1963 - 291 (7th yr)

Barry Sanders* 1994 - 331 (6th yr)

O.J. Simpson* 1973 - 332 (5th yr)

Shaun Alexander 2004 - 353 (5th yr)

Ahman Green 2003 - 355 (6th yr)

Walter Payton* 1977 - 339 (3rd yr)

Barry Sanders* 1997 - 335 (9th yr)

O.J. Simpson* 1975 - 329 (7th yr)

Some historical perspective on how good or great Hill's season was.

As was pointed out elsewhere, Hill accomplished this despite the handicap of only 5 games with 20+ carries. Most of the other RBs on this list (Brown, Simpson, Payton, Dickerson, Campbell, Sanders and Peterson, to name seven, among the greatest RBs in league history) AVERAGED 20+ carry seasons to put up these kind of historic volume rushing outburst numbers.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G ▴ Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch%Jeremy Hill 2014 22 2-55 CIN NFL 16 8 222 1124 5.06 9 70.3 32 27 215 7.96 0 13.4 84.4Corey Dillon 1997 23 2-43 CIN NFL 16 6 233 1129 4.85 10 70.6 27 259 9.59 0 16.2 Eerily similar rookie numbers for Hill and Dillon.

As well as this.

 

[RBM]

Staff in Cincy knows what they have in Hill and I think he will be the clear workhorse. I don't see any way, barring injury, he is not a top 10 rb this year, and that's me trying to be conservative.

 

[blardorg]

jeremy hill played about half the snaps last year, in his rookie season

jeremy hill logged a mere 222 carries

jeremy hill played in 5 games with 20+ carries

jeremy hill put up 4 games of 145+ yards

who would you have to be to better that number?

who has put up 5+ games of 145+ yards in a single season?

Earl Campbell* 1980 - 373 carries (3rd yr)

Terrell Davis 1998 - 392 (4th yr)

Eric Dickerson* 1984 - 379 (2nd yr)

Adrian Peterson 2012 - 348 (6th yr)

Jim Brown* 1963 - 291 (7th yr)

Barry Sanders* 1994 - 331 (6th yr)

O.J. Simpson* 1973 - 332 (5th yr)

Shaun Alexander 2004 - 353 (5th yr)

Ahman Green 2003 - 355 (6th yr)

Walter Payton* 1977 - 339 (3rd yr)

Barry Sanders* 1997 - 335 (9th yr)

O.J. Simpson* 1975 - 329 (7th yr)

Some historical perspective on how good or great Hill's season was.

As was pointed out elsewhere, Hill accomplished this despite the handicap of only 5 games with 20+ carries. Most of the other RBs on this list (Brown, Simpson, Payton, Dickerson, Campbell, Sanders and Peterson, to name seven, among the greatest RBs in league history) AVERAGED 20+ carry seasons to put up these kind of historic volume rushing outburst numbers.

Clearly Hill isn't worth Abdullah, hah!

 

[georg013]

jeremy hill played about half the snaps last year, in his rookie season

jeremy hill logged a mere 222 carries

jeremy hill played in 5 games with 20+ carries

jeremy hill put up 4 games of 145+ yards

who would you have to be to better that number?

who has put up 5+ games of 145+ yards in a single season?

Earl Campbell* 1980 - 373 carries (3rd yr)

Terrell Davis 1998 - 392 (4th yr)

Eric Dickerson* 1984 - 379 (2nd yr)

Adrian Peterson 2012 - 348 (6th yr)

Jim Brown* 1963 - 291 (7th yr)

Barry Sanders* 1994 - 331 (6th yr)

O.J. Simpson* 1973 - 332 (5th yr)

Shaun Alexander 2004 - 353 (5th yr)

Ahman Green 2003 - 355 (6th yr)

Walter Payton* 1977 - 339 (3rd yr)

Barry Sanders* 1997 - 335 (9th yr)

O.J. Simpson* 1975 - 329 (7th yr)

Some historical perspective on how good or great Hill's season was.

As was pointed out elsewhere, Hill accomplished this despite the handicap of only 5 games with 20+ carries. Most of the other RBs on this list (Brown, Simpson, Payton, Dickerson, Campbell, Sanders and Peterson, to name seven, among the greatest RBs in league history) AVERAGED 20+ carry seasons to put up these kind of historic volume rushing outburst numbers.

Clearly Hill isn't worth Abdullah, hah!

It's approaching that time of year when owners fap to highlight reels of their shiny new toys expecting record breaking rookie numbers. Until reality sets in. Everyone can't be OBJ or Jeremy Hill.

 

[Sabertooth]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

Yep. He's Sproles + for sure. Only so many touches to go around.

It's a shame McCoy only had 340 touches last year...

Yeah, but Sproles is old. The Eagles called about 7 more plays per game than the Bengals. And Bernard is better than Sproles.

 

[humpback]

One is a timeshare, the other has a chance to be "the guy." I really don't see how Hill does much better than last year.

I agree with Sabertooth here. I, personally, think Gio is way too talented to be relegated completely to a 3rd down back type of roll. He'll always be at least a little more.

In the 3 weeks Gio was out, Hill had 24,12,and 27 carries. So two of those weeks were his highest and 3rd highest carry totals of the year. He did finish the season with 3 straight 20+ carry games though. And that was with Gio playing.

Hill gets next to no catches so his value will certainly be higher in non-ppr leagues (does anyone play in those anymore?).

So, I think what he did last year will pretty much be his ceiling with Gio there. I certainly don't see him increasing his carry count much with 5 games with 20+ carries.

Yep. He's Sproles + for sure. Only so many touches to go around.

It's a shame McCoy only had 340 touches last year...

Yeah, but Sproles is old. The Eagles called about 7 more plays per game than the Bengals. And Bernard is better than Sproles.

It was closer to 6 plays per game, but Cincy ran the ball more than Philly. It's certainly arguable who is better between the two, but Sproles has never had 100 carries in a season so if that's going to be your comparison, Hill owners would gladly get on board with that.

Obviously we're all speculating here, but I still haven't seen a good reason why they wouldn't continue with roughly the same splits they used in the 2nd half last season.

 

[Nero]

jeremy hill played about half the snaps last year, in his rookie season

jeremy hill logged a mere 222 carries

jeremy hill played in 5 games with 20+ carries

jeremy hill put up 4 games of 145+ yards

who would you have to be to better that number?

who has put up 5+ games of 145+ yards in a single season?

Earl Campbell* 1980 - 373 carries (3rd yr)

Terrell Davis 1998 - 392 (4th yr)

Eric Dickerson* 1984 - 379 (2nd yr)

Adrian Peterson 2012 - 348 (6th yr)

Jim Brown* 1963 - 291 (7th yr)

Barry Sanders* 1994 - 331 (6th yr)

O.J. Simpson* 1973 - 332 (5th yr)

Shaun Alexander 2004 - 353 (5th yr)

Ahman Green 2003 - 355 (6th yr)

Walter Payton* 1977 - 339 (3rd yr)

Barry Sanders* 1997 - 335 (9th yr)

O.J. Simpson* 1975 - 329 (7th yr)

Some historical perspective on how good or great Hill's season was.

As was pointed out elsewhere, Hill accomplished this despite the handicap of only 5 games with 20+ carries. Most of the other RBs on this list (Brown, Simpson, Payton, Dickerson, Campbell, Sanders and Peterson, to name seven, among the greatest RBs in league history) AVERAGED 20+ carry seasons to put up these kind of historic volume rushing outburst numbers.

Clearly Hill isn't worth Abdullah, hah!

It's most certainly the truth in the minds of at least two people. I don't have a problem being wrong. I'm most confident in my RB evaluations. I rather be wrong based on my own assessment, rather than be wrong following the advice of the masses.

 

[fruity pebbles]

jeremy hill played about half the snaps last year, in his rookie season

jeremy hill logged a mere 222 carries

jeremy hill played in 5 games with 20+ carries

jeremy hill put up 4 games of 145+ yards

who would you have to be to better that number?

who has put up 5+ games of 145+ yards in a single season?

Earl Campbell* 1980 - 373 carries (3rd yr)Terrell Davis 1998 - 392 (4th yr)Eric Dickerson* 1984 - 379 (2nd yr)Adrian Peterson 2012 - 348 (6th yr)Jim Brown* 1963 - 291 (7th yr)Barry Sanders* 1994 - 331 (6th yr)O.J. Simpson* 1973 - 332 (5th yr)Shaun Alexander 2004 - 353 (5th yr)Ahman Green 2003 - 355 (6th yr)Walter Payton* 1977 - 339 (3rd yr)Barry Sanders* 1997 - 335 (9th yr)O.J. Simpson* 1975 - 329 (7th yr)

Some historical perspective on how good or great Hill's season was.

As was pointed out elsewhere, Hill accomplished this despite the handicap of only 5 games with 20+ carries. Most of the other RBs on this list (Brown, Simpson, Payton, Dickerson, Campbell, Sanders and Peterson, to name seven, among the greatest RBs in league history) AVERAGED 20+ carry seasons to put up these kind of historic volume rushing outburst numbers.

Clearly Hill isn't worth Abdullah, hah!

It's most certainly the truth in the minds of at least two people. I don't have a problem being wrong. I'm most confident in my RB evaluations. I rather be wrong based on my own assessment, rather than be wrong following the advice of the masses.

Like to see your RB evaluationts. To my untrained eye, Hill looked like the 2nd most impressive RB of the season.

 

[Nero]

Your eyes must be trained to look at stats

 

[fruity pebbles]

Your eyes must be trained to look at stats

Saw every game.

 

[humpback]

Your eyes must be trained to look at stats

What are yours trained to look at? You seem to have the opposite opinion of nearly everyone, including their own team.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Those interested heres a highlight video from last season

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=M40Oysdsu_M

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Maybe I am in the minority about Gio, but he reminds me a ton of Brian Westbrook. Not a guy that will have many seasons of 250 plus rush attempts but you will look at the seasons end and see a 215 to 250 touch rb that will put up very nice combined yardage stats.

There lies the problem with Hill's ceiling for the time being. Hill is an absolute beast, but his true ceiling won't be reached with Gio playing along side him.

 

[Hoosier16]

If Bernard is a beast by averaging 4.0 ypc and 5.9 y/targ, what does that make Hill who averaged 5.1 ypc and 6.7 y/targ?

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

If Bernard is a beast by averaging 4.0 ypc and 5.9 y/targ, what does that make Hill who averaged 5.1 ypc and 6.7 y/targ?

Bernard is a very good all around RB and one that is different than Hill. I am not saying Bernard is a beast. I am saying he is a very dynamic player that is an exceptional pass catching RB.

 

[Tool]

If Bernard is a beast by averaging 4.0 ypc and 5.9 y/targ, what does that make Hill who averaged 5.1 ypc and 6.7 y/targ?

Bernard is a very good all around RB and one that is different than Hill. I am not saying Bernard is a beast. I am saying he is a very dynamic player that is an exceptional pass catching RB.

I don't think anyone would argue he's not a good player. As a fantasy player, seems more like Shane Vereen to me than Brian Westbrook.

 

[Biabreakable]

What I am reading here is people being overly optimistic about Jeremy Hills long term prospects based on small sample sizes of data where Hill performed very well being extrapolated into full season expectations.

One example of this that I take issue with is saying that Hill clearly outperformed Bernard as a rusher, with no consideration for the fact that Bernard was injured which led to Hill's increased opportunity in the offense.

Some facts:

2014 1018 total plays 503 pa 492 ra 48.3% run 313 1st downs

Hill 222 ra (45.1%)
Bernard 168 ra (34.2%)
Dalton 60 ra (12.2%)
Other RB 25 ra (5.1%)
WR runs 13 ra (2.6%)
2013 1097 total plays 587 pa 481 ra 43.9% run 330 1st downs

BJGE 220 ra (45.7%)

Bernard 170 ra (35.3%)

Dalton 61 ra (12.7%)

Other RB 15 ra (3.1%)

WR runs 14 ra (2.9%)

Look at how close the dirstibution of rushing attempts were from 2013 to 2014 220 carries for the Hill/BJGE role in the offense, 170 for Bernard, 60 for Dalton Slightly more carries for other RB in 2014 compared 2013 (25 to 15) in part because of the 3 games missed by Bernard in 2014. If we pro rated Bernard's carries based on his usage of 12.9 carries/game he was on pace for 207 carries.

Using yards per carry of 5.1 for Hill as a career expectation of performance for is overly optimistic. Only three RB in recent years have managed to do that. Adrian Peterson, Jamal Charles and DeAngelo Williams. At least until Hill shows he can maintain 5.1ypc over the course of a second season I consider a more realistic expectation to be 4.5 or 4.6

As you notice from comparing 2014 with 2013 total plays fell by 79 in Hue Jacksons 1st season as the OC (was RB coach in 2013). 1st downs also fell by 17 the percentage of rushing attempts rose by 4.4% of total plays with Jackson calling the shots.

2015 950-1000-1050 total plays at 48.3% rushing attempts is 459-483-507 rushing attempts.

Dalton has had 60 ra in 2014 and 61 ra in 2013 so expecting that he will run a similar number of times again in 2015

399-423-447 non QB rushing attempts

Subtracting 12 ra for WR leaves

387-411-435 rushing attempts for the RB

Bernard has had 170 and 168 rushing attemps his 1st 2 seasons was on pace for 207 rushing attempts in 2014 if he had not been injured. The average of 207 and 170 = 188 rushing attempts.

Sutracting 170 ra from the RB attempts leaves

217-241-265 rushing attempts

Using 188 ra for Bernard would be

199-223-247 rushing attempts

I think it is safe to say that proponents of Hill are expecting the higher end of the scale to tip to Hill. Something around 250 rushing attempts. However this is optimistic because Hill might only have around 220 rushing attempts which is what he had last season and BJGE had in 2013. There is also downside that Hill optimists are not considering. There is still another 20 carries for other RB that has not been accounted for in the numbers above.

In 2014 Bernard had 509 offensive snaps 47.9% (although he missed 3 games) Hill had 501 offensive snaps 47.2%

eta- Jamal Charles who has maintained 5 ypc over his career

 

[georg013]

Doesnt change a thing for me. Still high on Hill. Sorry.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Doesnt change a thing for me. Still high on Hill. Sorry.

Projections?

 

[Bob Magaw]

"Using yards per carry of 5.1 for Hill as a career expectation of performance for is overly optimistic. Only two RB in recent years have managed to do that. Adrian Peterson and DeAngelo Williams. At least until Hill shows he can maintain 5.1ypc over the course of a second season I consider a more realistic expectation to be 4.5 or 4.6."

Hill breaks long runs. It's what he does.

A 5.1 career average would be unlikely. Charles would be another example, has never had less than 5.0 in seven seasons, and I think owns the NFL record for career Y/C average at 5.5 (not to compare Hill with him, just adding him to the list). In 2014, a dozen backs were better than 4.6. Even if you take out low carry RBs like Latavius Murray (82), Jerick McKinnon (113) and Ahmad Bradshaw (90), that still leaves close to 30% of the league's starters last season over that threshold. If you look at the historical comps with around four 145+ yard games in a season (the list above had five, but they were vets that in some cases were in there sixth or seventh seasons), they were almost uniformly among the greatest RBs in league history, which might recommend not explaining it away. By definition, rare and special talents at any position are probably going to be resistant and refractory to attempts to capture their differences with nets made of statistical/historical convention (but agree, we'll have a better sense in 2015 if his brilliant rookie season was the false hope and tease of an outlier, or the accurate reflection of a truly gifted prodigy - don't "bank it" brohans , but my sense is the latter).

In 2013, Law Firm's Y/C average of 3.4 = #42 among RBs

In 2014, Hill's Y/C average of 5.1 = tied for 3rd among RBs

BJGE was a rented mule and a plodder, Hill is a thoroughbred, that is the best basis imo to pin hopes on that he will carry more than his pedestrian predecessor. He is better. Lots.

 

[ZWK]

What I am reading here is people being overly optimistic about Jeremy Hills long term prospects based on small sample sizes of data where Hill performed very well being extrapolated into full season expectations.

One example of this that I take issue with is saying that Hill clearly outperformed Bernard as a rusher, with no consideration for the fact that Bernard was injured which led to Hill's increased opportunity in the offense.

Some facts:

2014 1018 total plays 503 pa 492 ra 48.3% run 313 1st downs

Hill 222 ra (45.1%)
Bernard 168 ra (34.2%)
Dalton 60 ra (12.2%)
Other RB 25 ra (5.1%)
WR runs 13 ra (2.6%)
2013 1097 total plays 587 pa 481 ra 43.9% run 330 1st downs

BJGE 220 ra (45.7%)

Bernard 170 ra (35.3%)

Dalton 61 ra (12.7%)

Other RB 15 ra (3.1%)

WR runs 14 ra (2.9%)

Look at how close the dirstibution of rushing attempts were from 2013 to 2014 220 carries for the Hill/BJGE role in the offense, 170 for Bernard, 60 for Dalton Slightly more carries for other RB in 2014 compared 2013 (25 to 15) in part because of the 3 games missed by Bernard in 2014. If we pro rated Bernard's carries based on his usage of 12.9 carries/game he was on pace for 207 carries.

Using yards per carry of 5.1 for Hill as a career expectation of performance for is overly optimistic. Only three RB in recent years have managed to do that. Adrian Peterson, Jamal Charles and DeAngelo Williams. At least until Hill shows he can maintain 5.1ypc over the course of a second season I consider a more realistic expectation to be 4.5 or 4.6

As you notice from comparing 2014 with 2013 total plays fell by 79 in Hue Jacksons 1st season as the OC (was RB coach in 2013). 1st downs also fell by 17 the percentage of rushing attempts rose by 4.4% of total plays with Jackson calling the shots.

2015 950-1000-1050 total plays at 48.3% rushing attempts is 459-483-507 rushing attempts.

Dalton has had 60 ra in 2014 and 61 ra in 2013 so expecting that he will run a similar number of times again in 2015

399-423-447 non QB rushing attempts

Subtracting 12 ra for WR leaves

387-411-435 rushing attempts for the RB

Bernard has had 170 and 168 rushing attemps his 1st 2 seasons was on pace for 207 rushing attempts in 2014 if he had not been injured. The average of 207 and 170 = 188 rushing attempts.

Sutracting 170 ra from the RB attempts leaves

217-241-265 rushing attempts

Using 188 ra for Bernard would be

199-223-247 rushing attempts

I think it is safe to say that proponents of Hill are expecting the higher end of the scale to tip to Hill. Something around 250 rushing attempts. However this is optimistic because Hill might only have around 220 rushing attempts which is what he had last season and BJGE had in 2013. There is also downside that Hill optimists are not considering. There is still another 20 carries for other RB that has not been accounted for in the numbers above.

In 2014 Bernard had 509 offensive snaps 47.9% (although he missed 3 games) Hill had 501 offensive snaps 47.2%

eta- Jamal Charles who has maintained 5 ypc over his career

After Gio came back from his injury (weeks 12-18), Hill had 65% of the RB carries, with 33% going to Gio and 3% going to Burkhead/Peerman. With 423 RB carries, that would translate into a 273 for Hill, 139 for Gio, and 11 for others. They were on pace for 432 RB carries per 16 games during that period, so you get almost the same thing if you just pro-rate.

Gio was the clear lead back to start the season, and before his injury (weeks 1-8), the workload was swapped: Gio had 66% of the RB carries, Hill had 30%, and Burkhead/Peerman had 3%. But those roles (with Hill getting single-digit carries most games) are pretty clearly a thing of the past.

This year, I'd expect the workload to be closer to the late-season split, with 60-65% of RB carries going to Hill (as long as he stays healthy and keeps running well). That's 250-275 carries, if they hand it off about 420 times.

 

[Biabreakable]

I don't really have much new to add that I didn't say last season.

I expected somewhere between a 60-40 split in terms of snaps between Hill and Bernard. Last season they had about 47% of the snaps each, with the majority of Hills occuring and the end of the season while Bernard had more prior to his injury.

Here is the football outsiders offensive snaps by game for Bernard and Hill

Bernard

W @ BAL 57 86%
W ATL 45 63%
W TEN 39 64%
BYE
L @ NE 42 81%
T CAR 55 68%
L @ IND 40 71%
W BAL 36 53% Bernard injured
W JAX 0
L CLE 0
W @ NO 0
W @ HOU 49 60%
W @ TAM 30 49%
L PIT 34 56%
W @ CLE 28 36% Hill becomes primary RB
W DEN 24 38%
L @ PIT 30 42%


Hill

W @ BAL 10 15%
W ATL 30 42%
W TEN 15 25%
BYE
L @ NE 11 21%
T CAR 27 33%
L @ IND 17 30%
W BAL 31 46% Bernard injured
W JAX 44 65%
L CLE 47 70%
W @ NO 49 80%
W @ HOU 32 40%
W @ TAM 31 51%
L PIT 30 49%
W @ CLE 46 62% Hill becomes primary RB
W DEN 39 62%
L @ PIT 42 59%

If you look at the splits you see that Hill was used primarily on 1st and second downs. He had 123 carries while the Bengals had a lead, 38 when they were tied, 61 while trailing. He does not get used as much when the Bengals are behind in the score.

Hill is still somewhat match up dependent. He thrives when he gets 15 or more carries, but with a healthy Bernard this becomes uncertain which games he will have those in. Even if you assume he maintains having 60% of the snaps as he did at the end of last season, he is a questionable start in games where the Bengals play a good team that can put points on the board.

The match ups where the Bengals play against poor defense and/or overall team favors Hill. His best games were against the Falcons, Jaguars, Saints, Texans, Browns, Broncos, Steelers. Compare the two Steelers games he played near the end of the season for example. Bernard had 56% of the snaps in that game because they were being blown out by the Steelers.

Or week 18 playoffs against the Colts

Bernard 40 66% 3 carries 6 yards 9 targets 8 receptions 46 yards

Hill 21 34% 13 carries 47 yards TD 0 targets

 

[Bob Magaw]

The Bengals were 6-1 when Hill had either 15+ carries or 100+ rushing yards.

Meaning, in the other 9 games, they were 4-4-1. I noted four losses that would fall into the blow out category above, all here - the lone loss above was by 10 in the regular season finale against PIT (seems weird, but 80% of their losses were blow outs, wouldn't think that is common, but didn't check 2013, 2012, etc.).

Maybe that is a chicken and the egg-type paradox or conundrum? Did the blow outs preclude 15+ carries for Hill? Or was it precisely because CIN (i.e. - OC Hue Jackson) didn't make more of a concerted effort to get the ball to Hill earlier in some of those games, that contributed to their downfall and doomed them? Perhaps a bit of both during the season? As alluded to above, if Bernard, Green and Eifert miss fewer games, might there be fewer blow outs, and a higher relative percentage of the 2015 16 game schedule conducive to feeding Hill 15+ games? I can anticipate some maybe scoffing at 3 TD losses to the Browns and Steelers (first divisional meeting in both cases) and thinking they would have lost regardless. Perhaps. But as we know, football can be very much of a momentum game, sometimes hinging on a play or two that could have branched off on many alternate pathways depending on the bouncing of a destiny-mocking funny shaped ball, and even within a contest that was ultimately decided by 21 points, if CIN had a hypothetical long drive for a TD earlier in the game by feeding Hill more often, a rested defense forces a three and out and prevented a TD that otherwise would have happened, than it is all of a sudden a much closer, single score margin of victory (and therefore, effectively far more Hill 15+ carry friendly, much later into the game).

If I was the OC, unless/until I detected some kind of reversal and the script flipped on the W/L record correlation with 15+ carries (or 100+ yard) trend, I'd keep trying to feed Hill the ball 15+ times a game every opportunity possible.

* The Bengals were 4-0-1 when Bernard had either 15+ carries or 100+ rushing yards. They actually overlapped and BOTH had either 15+ carries and/or 100+ yards in three games, unsurprisingly all wins (ATL, HOU and CLE).

** I'm not too worried about facing better teams in the playoffs (like the Colts) that could lead to increased risk of blow out losses, as most fantasy league playoffs are already over, rendering the point academic.

 

[Sabertooth]

If Bernard is a beast by averaging 4.0 ypc and 5.9 y/targ, what does that make Hill who averaged 5.1 ypc and 6.7 y/targ?

Bernard is a very good all around RB and one that is different than Hill. I am not saying Bernard is a beast. I am saying he is a very dynamic player that is an exceptional pass catching RB.

I don't think anyone would argue he's not a good player. As a fantasy player, seems more like Shane Vereen to me than Brian Westbrook.

He's closer to Westbrook than Vereen IMO.

 

[Tool]

If Bernard is a beast by averaging 4.0 ypc and 5.9 y/targ, what does that make Hill who averaged 5.1 ypc and 6.7 y/targ?

Bernard is a very good all around RB and one that is different than Hill. I am not saying Bernard is a beast. I am saying he is a very dynamic player that is an exceptional pass catching RB.

I don't think anyone would argue he's not a good player. As a fantasy player, seems more like Shane Vereen to me than Brian Westbrook.

He's closer to Westbrook than Vereen IMO.

On what basis? He's never shown an ability to run betweent the tackles - at least from what i've seen.

 

[Sabertooth]

Doesnt change a thing for me. Still high on Hill. Sorry.

You don't have to be sorry. Guys don't often fall along historical trends. But to say "I love this guy because I do" doesn't really help the debate at all. Biabreakable nailed my concerns with Hill. I think this is a committee. People were too high on Gio last year and they are too low on him this year. Plus Hill has character issues as well.

 

[Sabertooth]

If Bernard is a beast by averaging 4.0 ypc and 5.9 y/targ, what does that make Hill who averaged 5.1 ypc and 6.7 y/targ?

Bernard is a very good all around RB and one that is different than Hill. I am not saying Bernard is a beast. I am saying he is a very dynamic player that is an exceptional pass catching RB.

I don't think anyone would argue he's not a good player. As a fantasy player, seems more like Shane Vereen to me than Brian Westbrook.

He's closer to Westbrook than Vereen IMO.

On what basis? He's never shown an ability to run betweent the tackles - at least from what i've seen.

Shane Vereen doesn't do this.

 

[mikmak8902]

The Bengals were 6-1 when Hill had either 15+ carries or 100+ rushing yards.

Meaning, in the other 9 games, they were 4-4-1. I noted four losses that would fall into the blow out category above, all here - the lone loss above was by 10 in the regular season finale against PIT (seems weird, but 80% of their losses were blow outs, wouldn't think that is common, but didn't check 2013, 2012, etc.).

Maybe that is a chicken and the egg-type paradox or conundrum? Did the blow outs preclude 15+ carries for Hill? Or was it precisely because CIN (i.e. - OC Hue Jackson) didn't make more of a concerted effort to get the ball to Hill earlier in some of those games, that contributed to their downfall and doomed them? Perhaps a bit of both during the season? As alluded to above, if Bernard, Green and Eifert miss fewer games, might there be fewer blow outs, and a higher relative percentage of the 2015 16 game schedule conducive to feeding Hill 15+ games? I can anticipate some maybe scoffing at 3 TD losses to the Browns and Steelers (first divisional meeting in both cases) and thinking they would have lost regardless. Perhaps. But as we know, football can be very much of a momentum game, sometimes hinging on a play or two that could have branched off on many alternate pathways depending on the bouncing of a destiny-mocking funny shaped ball, and even within a contest that was ultimately decided by 21 points, if CIN had a hypothetical long drive for a TD earlier in the game by feeding Hill more often, a rested defense forces a three and out and prevented a TD that otherwise would have happened, than it is all of a sudden a much closer, single score margin of victory (and therefore, effectively far more Hill 15+ carry friendly, much later into the game).

If I was the OC, unless/until I detected some kind of reversal and the script flipped on the W/L record correlation with 15+ carries (or 100+ yard) trend, I'd keep trying to feed Hill the ball 15+ times a game every opportunity possible.

* The Bengals were 4-0-1 when Bernard had either 15+ carries or 100+ rushing yards. They actually overlapped and BOTH had either 15+ carries and/or 100+ yards in three games, unsurprisingly all wins (ATL, HOU and CLE).

** I'm not too worried about facing better teams in the playoffs (like the Colts) that could lead to increased risk of blow out losses, as most fantasy league playoffs are already over, rendering the point academic.

Well, to be fair, those games were against Atlanta, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Houston, Cleveland, Denver, and Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh was the loss. So they won ONE game all year against a decent opponent when Hill had 15+ carries.

 

[Bob Magaw]

That was partly my point, possibly they would have had a better record against the stronger teams on the schedule, if they had stuck to the game plan more.

Elsewhere in the thread, it was pointed out that other good RBs played poor teams, too, Hill wasn't alone in that respect. In some cases, he fared very well against common opponents relative to some of them. I'd also point back to the historic number of 145+ yard games, with similar numbers to some of the league's all time greatest RBs. Needless to say, they didn't all come against the Fearsome Foursome's and Steel Curtain's of their era. Yet they were unable to do appreciably better, despite a typically huge relative advantage in 20+ carry games and experience (not to mention physical maturation and technical development), than Hill did as a rookie. Such a historically auspicious debut seemingly bodes very well going forward.

 

[jmo87usc]

If you look at the guys who have been in the top 5 RB scoring each year, none of them are really splitting carries with anyone, other than just to get a breather when needed. While Hill may certainly be capable of a bell cow role, it won't happen in Cincy while Gio is there. So top 5 is pretty much out of reach for now.

Now as far as top 6-10? I could see both Hill and Gio falling into this range if they stay healthy the entire season. I think the way Cincy approached the run game last year is the way they will continue to approach it. In a ppr, I can see Hill and Gio each eclipsing 200 points with the type of volume they will get. Some one mentioned they are comparable to Jon Stewart and Deangelo Williams, but I think it's more like Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw were for the Giants. Hill is a better version of Jacobs though. I own both and am content to start both any given week as I feel they will alternate as the higher scorer from week to week.

But if you are looking to invest in Hill as a top 5 RB, I think you have to wait until Gio is out of the equation.

 

[mikmak8902]

That was partly my point, possibly they would have had a better record against the stronger teams on the schedule, if they had stuck to the game plan more.

Elsewhere in the thread, it was pointed out that other good RBs played poor teams, too, Hill wasn't alone in that respect. In some cases, he fared very well against common opponents relative to some of them. I'd also point back to the historic number of 145+ yard games, with similar numbers to some of the league's all time greatest RBs. Needless to say, they didn't all come against the Fearsome Foursome's and Steel Curtain's of their era. Yet they were unable to do appreciably better, despite a typically huge relative advantage in 20+ carry games and experience (not to mention physical maturation and technical development), than Hill did as a rookie. Such a historically auspicious debut seemingly bodes very well going forward.

I think your points are valid and well thought out. I was just referring to the "6-1 when rushing Hill 15+ times" factoid. I'm just not a fan of that line of reasoning as it doesn't take into consideration the situation of each game. If the Bengals played the bottom 10 rush defenses in the league, beat them all while Hill rushed 25+ times a game in blowouts, and they went 10-0 in those games, what does that really tell us? Does that mean if they run him 25+ times a game against the TOP 10 rush defenses in the league, they will win those? Nope. Every situation is different. Every game has it's own individual game plan. In Week 8, the Benglas ran Hill 10 times and beat the Ravens. What does that tell us? It tells us the Ravens shut down Hill and Cinci was forced to throw the ball. I think that will happen more this coming season with the much harder schedule.

 

[Bob Magaw]

If you look at the guys who have been in the top 5 RB scoring each year, none of them are really splitting carries with anyone, other than just to get a breather when needed. While Hill may certainly be capable of a bell cow role, it won't happen in Cincy while Gio is there. So top 5 is pretty much out of reach for now.

Now as far as top 6-10? I could see both Hill and Gio falling into this range if they stay healthy the entire season. I think the way Cincy approached the run game last year is the way they will continue to approach it. In a ppr, I can see Hill and Gio each eclipsing 200 points with the type of volume they will get. Some one mentioned they are comparable to Jon Stewart and Deangelo Williams, but I think it's more like Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw were for the Giants. Hill is a better version of Jacobs though. I own both and am content to start both any given week as I feel they will alternate as the higher scorer from week to week.

But if you are looking to invest in Hill as a top 5 RB, I think you have to wait until Gio is out of the equation.

Good post.

In one league where I have both Hill and Bernard, it looks like I'll also be starting both a lot. Which I'm OK with. I like Bernard a lot, that doesn't always come through in championing Hill.

Hill is imo a superior between the tackles runner (just a pure rusher, period). Bernard is a superior receiver out of the backfield. I probably mentioned it before (like 2014), his ability to split out wide and run routes like a WR is reminiscent of Faulk, Westbrook and Bush.

Sometimes in cases like this, I wouldn't pay to acquire him if valued at top 5. That would be paying for his best case scenario, with no margin for error if he underwhelms. But I might be inclined to hold him as a top 5 value, as I think he has a chance to be one of the best RBs in the NFL in a few years (if he isn't already - his dynasty valuation does seem to be hovering around the top 5 range).

Bernard has the potential to partially compensate and make up some of the ground through receptions in PPR leagues. But if Hill continues to get close to double the carries of Bernard (like the roughly 2/3-1/3 split after he returned from injury to close the season), and average a full yard more on his Y/C average, which I realize is disputed by some on one or both counts, but IF that transpires, than that could give him a decisive advantage in the RBBC.

You didn't note it, but it could be a related point (sharing the backfield with Bernard), the issue of volatility has come up a lot, as a result of losing game scripts pointing towards some inevitable pass-heavy games favoring Bernard, which I get. Another IF, Bernard, Green and Eifert don't miss as much collective time (a low bar), they may be more competitive, and have less blow out losses. Say, instead of 4, they have 2-3? In that case, the blow out bogeyman could be a misplaced concern (kind of the equivalent of chasing last year's stats). How many teams have 0-1 blowouts in a season? Virtually everybody has a few, even the best teams, such as SEA, NE, GB, etc.

If we restricted ourselves to the Draconian standard of only selecting RBs from teams that never get blown out, that might be a list populated by 0 RBs. If a team is getting blown out by 3-4 TDs, even if they are MIN, Peterson isn't going to be in favorable conditions to succeed in those contests, either.

* Not to put too fine a point on this, but you mentioned top 5 as a cut off. Obviously if he finishes #6 or #7, that could still be very valuable (especially if you didn't pay that kind of valuation for him, or already have him). But I suspect there are many that don't think he is capable of that, so there is probably more variance in expectations and concern, than from those that don't think he is top 5 material given the presence of Bernard.

 

[humpback]

I think your points are valid and well thought out. I was just referring to the "6-1 when rushing Hill 15+ times" factoid. I'm just not a fan of that line of reasoning as it doesn't take into consideration the situation of each game. If the Bengals played the bottom 10 rush defenses in the league, beat them all while Hill rushed 25+ times a game in blowouts, and they went 10-0 in those games, what does that really tell us? Does that mean if they run him 25+ times a game against the TOP 10 rush defenses in the league, they will win those? Nope. Every situation is different. Every game has it's own individual game plan. In Week 8, the Benglas ran Hill 10 times and beat the Ravens. What does that tell us? It tells us the Ravens shut down Hill and Cinci was forced to throw the ball. I think that will happen more this coming season with the much harder schedule.

It tells us that was the game Gio got injured (late in the game), and Hill didn't take over as the bell cow until week 9.

 

[mikmak8902]

I think your points are valid and well thought out. I was just referring to the "6-1 when rushing Hill 15+ times" factoid. I'm just not a fan of that line of reasoning as it doesn't take into consideration the situation of each game. If the Bengals played the bottom 10 rush defenses in the league, beat them all while Hill rushed 25+ times a game in blowouts, and they went 10-0 in those games, what does that really tell us? Does that mean if they run him 25+ times a game against the TOP 10 rush defenses in the league, they will win those? Nope. Every situation is different. Every game has it's own individual game plan. In Week 8, the Benglas ran Hill 10 times and beat the Ravens. What does that tell us? It tells us the Ravens shut down Hill and Cinci was forced to throw the ball. I think that will happen more this coming season with the much harder schedule.

It tells us that was the game Gio got injured (late in the game), and Hill didn't take over as the bell cow until week 9.

ok ... that's it. So the bengals simply need to run Hill 15+ times every game and they go undefeated and win the super bowl. Someone should let them know about this plan. Seems like they could save themselves alot of work.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Things are rarely that black and white.

But it is likely the fact that Hill ran better than Bernard, and that the team generally did very well when he was featured, hasn't escaped their attention. They did make him the starter over Bernard as a rookie, and flipped the script on the distribution of carries at mid-season, so clearly they recognized what many here saw (and were predicting, BEFORE it happened).

It isn't like Hue Jackson is some kind of Mike Martz passing game guru wannabe, and running more would be going against the grain for him. That was cited as positive for the backfield in general and Hill specifically this time last year. Jackson WANTS to run. In a way, Hill excelling as much as he did landed EXACTLY in Jackson's wheelhouse, with the formidable and mature beyond his years strengths of the rookie runner seemingly perfectly aligned with the OCs already existing inclination and tendency towards a run-heavy (or balanced) scheme and attack.

 

[humpback]

I think your points are valid and well thought out. I was just referring to the "6-1 when rushing Hill 15+ times" factoid. I'm just not a fan of that line of reasoning as it doesn't take into consideration the situation of each game. If the Bengals played the bottom 10 rush defenses in the league, beat them all while Hill rushed 25+ times a game in blowouts, and they went 10-0 in those games, what does that really tell us? Does that mean if they run him 25+ times a game against the TOP 10 rush defenses in the league, they will win those? Nope. Every situation is different. Every game has it's own individual game plan. In Week 8, the Benglas ran Hill 10 times and beat the Ravens. What does that tell us? It tells us the Ravens shut down Hill and Cinci was forced to throw the ball. I think that will happen more this coming season with the much harder schedule.

It tells us that was the game Gio got injured (late in the game), and Hill didn't take over as the bell cow until week 9.

ok ... that's it. So the bengals simply need to run Hill 15+ times every game and they go undefeated and win the super bowl. Someone should let them know about this plan. Seems like they could save themselves alot of work.

Yes, that's clearly what I said.

I simply pointed out that you left out a few key pieces of information about that game (including the fact that they shut Gio down), but if you'd like to pretend I said something that I didn't even allude to, knock yourself out.

 

[humpback]

What I am reading here is people being overly optimistic about Jeremy Hills long term prospects based on small sample sizes of data where Hill performed very well being extrapolated into full season expectations.

One example of this that I take issue with is saying that Hill clearly outperformed Bernard as a rusher, with no consideration for the fact that Bernard was injured which led to Hill's increased opportunity in the offense.

Some facts:

2014 1018 total plays 503 pa 492 ra 48.3% run 313 1st downs

Hill 222 ra (45.1%)
Bernard 168 ra (34.2%)
Dalton 60 ra (12.2%)
Other RB 25 ra (5.1%)
WR runs 13 ra (2.6%)
2013 1097 total plays 587 pa 481 ra 43.9% run 330 1st downs

BJGE 220 ra (45.7%)

Bernard 170 ra (35.3%)

Dalton 61 ra (12.7%)

Other RB 15 ra (3.1%)

WR runs 14 ra (2.9%)

Look at how close the dirstibution of rushing attempts were from 2013 to 2014 220 carries for the Hill/BJGE role in the offense, 170 for Bernard, 60 for Dalton Slightly more carries for other RB in 2014 compared 2013 (25 to 15) in part because of the 3 games missed by Bernard in 2014. If we pro rated Bernard's carries based on his usage of 12.9 carries/game he was on pace for 207 carries.

Using yards per carry of 5.1 for Hill as a career expectation of performance for is overly optimistic. Only three RB in recent years have managed to do that. Adrian Peterson, Jamal Charles and DeAngelo Williams. At least until Hill shows he can maintain 5.1ypc over the course of a second season I consider a more realistic expectation to be 4.5 or 4.6

As you notice from comparing 2014 with 2013 total plays fell by 79 in Hue Jacksons 1st season as the OC (was RB coach in 2013). 1st downs also fell by 17 the percentage of rushing attempts rose by 4.4% of total plays with Jackson calling the shots.

2015 950-1000-1050 total plays at 48.3% rushing attempts is 459-483-507 rushing attempts.

Dalton has had 60 ra in 2014 and 61 ra in 2013 so expecting that he will run a similar number of times again in 2015

399-423-447 non QB rushing attempts

Subtracting 12 ra for WR leaves

387-411-435 rushing attempts for the RB

Bernard has had 170 and 168 rushing attemps his 1st 2 seasons was on pace for 207 rushing attempts in 2014 if he had not been injured. The average of 207 and 170 = 188 rushing attempts.

Sutracting 170 ra from the RB attempts leaves

217-241-265 rushing attempts

Using 188 ra for Bernard would be

199-223-247 rushing attempts

I think it is safe to say that proponents of Hill are expecting the higher end of the scale to tip to Hill. Something around 250 rushing attempts. However this is optimistic because Hill might only have around 220 rushing attempts which is what he had last season and BJGE had in 2013. There is also downside that Hill optimists are not considering. There is still another 20 carries for other RB that has not been accounted for in the numbers above.

In 2014 Bernard had 509 offensive snaps 47.9% (although he missed 3 games) Hill had 501 offensive snaps 47.2%

eta- Jamal Charles who has maintained 5 ypc over his career

After Gio came back from his injury (weeks 12-18), Hill had 65% of the RB carries, with 33% going to Gio and 3% going to Burkhead/Peerman. With 423 RB carries, that would translate into a 273 for Hill, 139 for Gio, and 11 for others. They were on pace for 432 RB carries per 16 games during that period, so you get almost the same thing if you just pro-rate.

Gio was the clear lead back to start the season, and before his injury (weeks 1-8), the workload was swapped: Gio had 66% of the RB carries, Hill had 30%, and Burkhead/Peerman had 3%. But those roles (with Hill getting single-digit carries most games) are pretty clearly a thing of the past.

This year, I'd expect the workload to be closer to the late-season split, with 60-65% of RB carries going to Hill (as long as he stays healthy and keeps running well). That's 250-275 carries, if they hand it off about 420 times.

Anything can happen (maybe Hill gets in the doghouse, Gio has a Le'Veon Bell-like transformation, etc.), but it seems very likely that they plan to use the RBs similarly to the way they did after Gio's return last year. Why wouldn't they?