Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers (2 Viewers)

[two_dollars]

The Packers gameplans from week to week are very much a secret, and to say the TE is Rodgers "#1 option on most plays" is ridiculous.

Numerous stories and quotes from the team say it's not ridiculous. I'll let you go ahead and find them. They're all over this board if you use the search function.

Right, and Bruce Arians said that he thinks Hines Ward, Mike Wallace, and Heath Miller will all get 100 receptions this year, so clearly that's not a ridiculous claim, either.I will be very surprised if Jermichael Finley is the #1 read on more than 50% of the Packers' passing plays.

he was prob #1 read on 70%. he'll be targeted even more when james jones leaves.

here we go again...

130/1800/20 is a lock in 2011

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

The TE position is as deep as it's ever been, so I don't think it's wise to take one early. Why take Finley early when you can get Jimmy Graham in the middle rounds?

 

[N Zone]

The TE position is as deep as it's ever been, so I don't think it's wise to take one early. Why take Finley early when you can get Jimmy Graham in the middle rounds?

Because Finley's production will more than double Grahams.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

The TE position is as deep as it's ever been, so I don't think it's wise to take one early. Why take Finley early when you can get Jimmy Graham in the middle rounds?

Because Finley's production will more than double Grahams.

I'm not so sure. Graham has freakish skills as well

 

[cr8f]

The TE position is as deep as it's ever been, so I don't think it's wise to take one early. Why take Finley early when you can get Jimmy Graham in the middle rounds?

Unless you took him in the rookie draft after such notables as these4.02 38. Choice, Tashard DAL RB ® 4.03 39. Johnson, Josh TBB QB ® 4.04 40. Gholston, Vernon NYJ LB ® 4.05 41. Washington, Chauncey JAC RB ® 4.06 42. Phillips, Kenny NYG S ® 4.07 43. Caldwell, Andre CIN WR ® 4.08 44. Finley, Jermichael GBP TE ®

 

[rzrback77]

Can't say what percent of the time he would be the #1 read, but not sure that matters as much. Finley appeared to be the #2 read on the vast majority of plays before the injury. He has that Gates-like freakishness to be at least semi-open on practically any play. Whether this is because of skill or sheer physical size, the fact remains that when Rodgers couldn't find his primary target, he just threw to Finley. By the third game of the season, it looked almost automatic: "Whoops, Jennings is in double coverage, let me toss it to the TE". Maybe that changes this season, but I doubt it - I think Finley averages 5+ receptions per game if he stays healthy.

Finley played in four games in 2010 and the following provides the targets for each person in the first four Packer games:

1) Jennings 10-5-6-5-26 total

2) Driver 7-5-11-3-26 total

3) Finlay 6-6-9-5-26 total

4) Jms Jones 3-7-5-1-16 total

5) Nelson 2-2-4-1-9 total

6) Br Jackson 2-1-4-1-8 total

Equal split between the top three targets, I guess it just seemed like Rodgers was ALWAYS going to Finley. However, I am sure that this will all change going forward and Finley grabs the lion's share of targets for the Packers.

 

[cr8f]

Can't say what percent of the time he would be the #1 read, but not sure that matters as much. Finley appeared to be the #2 read on the vast majority of plays before the injury. He has that Gates-like freakishness to be at least semi-open on practically any play. Whether this is because of skill or sheer physical size, the fact remains that when Rodgers couldn't find his primary target, he just threw to Finley. By the third game of the season, it looked almost automatic: "Whoops, Jennings is in double coverage, let me toss it to the TE". Maybe that changes this season, but I doubt it - I think Finley averages 5+ receptions per game if he stays healthy.

Finley played in four games in 2010 and the following provides the targets for each person in the first four Packer games:

1) Jennings 10-5-6-5-26 total

2) Driver 7-5-11-3-26 total

3) Finlay 6-6-9-5-26 total

4) Jms Jones 3-7-5-1-16 total

5) Nelson 2-2-4-1-9 total

6) Br Jackson 2-1-4-1-8 total

Equal split between the top three targets, I guess it just seemed like Rodgers was ALWAYS going to Finley. However, I am sure that this will all change going forward and Finley grabs the lion's share of targets for the Packers.

Maybe because Finley caught 80% of his targets? Week he caught 9 of 9.

 

[Reepicheep]

Can't say what percent of the time he would be the #1 read, but not sure that matters as much. Finley appeared to be the #2 read on the vast majority of plays before the injury. He has that Gates-like freakishness to be at least semi-open on practically any play. Whether this is because of skill or sheer physical size, the fact remains that when Rodgers couldn't find his primary target, he just threw to Finley. By the third game of the season, it looked almost automatic: "Whoops, Jennings is in double coverage, let me toss it to the TE". Maybe that changes this season, but I doubt it - I think Finley averages 5+ receptions per game if he stays healthy.

Finley played in four games in 2010 and the following provides the targets for each person in the first four Packer games:

1) Jennings 10-5-6-5-26 total

2) Driver 7-5-11-3-26 total

3) Finlay 6-6-9-5-26 total

4) Jms Jones 3-7-5-1-16 total

5) Nelson 2-2-4-1-9 total

6) Br Jackson 2-1-4-1-8 total

Equal split between the top three targets, I guess it just seemed like Rodgers was ALWAYS going to Finley. However, I am sure that this will all change going forward and Finley grabs the lion's share of targets for the Packers.

So before he got injured, Finley got as many looks as the WR that finished the season #4 in standard scoring, and his stats through 4 games project to something like 140 points, good for #2. He was catching 80% of the balls thrown his way, and averaging 14 ypc despite his longest catch being only 34 yards. Based on interviews before, during, and after the season, Rodgers seems almost freakishly obsessed with the guy. I will freely and openly admit to being homerishly high on Finely, but what exactly is there not to like here, other than injury risk?

 

[matttyl]

Maybe because Finley caught 80% of his targets? Week he caught 9 of 9.

Well, I'm as big of a Finley fan (and Packers fan) as you'll find out there, so just to play devil's advocate with these stats....

In weeks 1-4 which are quoted above, he was only the 13th most targeted TE. Heap, Carlson, Watson and TWO different Detroit TEs were all targeted more.

Even if he caught 80% of those targets, which nearly all the other TEs didn't....he was still 5th in the league for receptions by TEs at the time, and tied for 10th in TDs.

That said, he's still #1 on my dynasty rankings....

 

[N Zone]

Maybe because Finley caught 80% of his targets? Week he caught 9 of 9.Well, I'm as big of a Finley fan (and Packers fan) as you'll find out there, so just to play devil's advocate with these stats....In weeks 1-4 which are quoted above, he was only the 13th most targeted TE. Heap, Carlson, Watson and TWO different Detroit TEs were all targeted more.Even if he caught 80% of those targets, which nearly all the other TEs didn't....he was still 5th in the league for receptions by TEs at the time, and tied for 10th in TDs.That said, he's still #1 on my dynasty rankings....

Why didn't you include yards?Finley is more talented and thus is way more productive per target than those guys and he was just beginning to become the focal point of the Green Bay passing offense, and the QB is Aaron Rodgers so that's why he should be expected to be even better next year.

 

[matttyl]

Like I said, I love Finley, just having some fun with people thinking he was so heavily targeted those first 4 games. He did absolutely amazing with the targets he got, there is absolutely no denying that.

In my league last year, he got 42 points total in those first 4 games. So over 16 that would be 168 - making him the #1 TE in my league (though not in PPG as Gates still had that by quite a good margin, and still only a point in front of Witten).

He got those 42 points off of 26 targets, or 1.62 PPT. Last year the top 2 TEs in the game had 127 and 126 targets. If Finely were targeted as often, stayed healthy, and kept his PPT average - 204 points, which is better than either Clark or Vernon Davis in my league in '09, and more than Gonzo in '08. Here's to hoping since I've got both Finely and Rodgers....

 

[Zdravko]

Maybe because Finley caught 80% of his targets? Week he caught 9 of 9.Well, I'm as big of a Finley fan (and Packers fan) as you'll find out there, so just to play devil's advocate with these stats....In weeks 1-4 which are quoted above, he was only the 13th most targeted TE. Heap, Carlson, Watson and TWO different Detroit TEs were all targeted more.Even if he caught 80% of those targets, which nearly all the other TEs didn't....he was still 5th in the league for receptions by TEs at the time, and tied for 10th in TDs.That said, he's still #1 on my dynasty rankings....

Those are very well taken points, but I'd raise a couple others. One, Finley is expected to do notably more with his targets than almost all other TEs. Two, how likely it is that Finley keeps getting 26 targets per 4 games and how many of the other listed TEs will maintain a comparable pace for the full season?I'd say 26 targets over 4 games should be about the norm for Finley in the GB offense. So, at 80% catch rate and, let's say, 13 yards per reception, this projects to: 26 * 4 * 80% = 83 receptions for 1,082 yards. If he stays healthy, that is.

 

[rzrback77]

career averages

Gates 66.4% catch rate and 13.2 ypc

Gonzo 65.7% catch rate and 11.7 ypc

Finley 75.2% catch rate and 12.8 ypc

His catch rate thus far in his career has been phenomenal and probably partially due to Rodgers accuracy, but anticipating 80% catch rate is questionable. Also with him coming off significant injury bumping him up from his career average of 12.8 even only to 13.0 ypc seems a little shaky as well.

I wish I had him on a dynasty because it seems he would be a great player to move with expectations for the future running almost equal to the unreal hype of last summer.

 

[Zdravko]

I agree that 80% is not sustainable. The 75% career average, however, is below and around the values for Gates, Witten, Dallas Clark from the last 2-3 years. TEs in pass-happy offenses with top QBs usually catch a relatively higher percentage of targets. Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski, Hernandez averaged 70-71% in their rookie season. I don't have a problem with the 13 ypc ballpark. Gates is the closest yac comparison and he averaged 14.6 and 15.6 in the last two years. Finley himself was at 14.3 last year. Once again, with the big assumption of a health Finley, 13 ypc shouldn't be considered unreal.

 

[Sinrj]

career averages

Gates 66.4% catch rate and 13.2 ypc

Gonzo 65.7% catch rate and 11.7 ypc

Finley 75.2% catch rate and 12.8 ypc

His catch rate thus far in his career has been phenomenal and probably partially due to Rodgers accuracy, but anticipating 80% catch rate is questionable. Also with him coming off significant injury bumping him up from his career average of 12.8 even only to 13.0 ypc seems a little shaky as well.

I wish I had him on a dynasty because it seems he would be a great player to move with expectations for the future running almost equal to the unreal hype of last summer.

I'm not sure if there's a huge market for him. Current price tag is way too high. No upside here.

 

[matttyl]

Maybe because Finley caught 80% of his targets? Week he caught 9 of 9.Well, I'm as big of a Finley fan (and Packers fan) as you'll find out there, so just to play devil's advocate with these stats....In weeks 1-4 which are quoted above, he was only the 13th most targeted TE. Heap, Carlson, Watson and TWO different Detroit TEs were all targeted more.Even if he caught 80% of those targets, which nearly all the other TEs didn't....he was still 5th in the league for receptions by TEs at the time, and tied for 10th in TDs.That said, he's still #1 on my dynasty rankings....

Those are very well taken points, but I'd raise a couple others. One, Finley is expected to do notably more with his targets than almost all other TEs. Two, how likely it is that Finley keeps getting 26 targets per 4 games and how many of the other listed TEs will maintain a comparable pace for the full season?I'd say 26 targets over 4 games should be about the norm for Finley in the GB offense. So, at 80% catch rate and, let's say, 13 yards per reception, this projects to: 26 * 4 * 80% = 83 receptions for 1,082 yards. If he stays healthy, that is.

Rodgers average attempts in those first 4 games - 30.5Rodgers average attempts in next 10 games (taking out the shortened Detroit game and the game he missed) - 34.2 (12% more).If you want to include those 2 games I removed, in both there were 37 pass attempts, so these numbers would look even better.In those first 4 games, Finley was getting 21% of the targets. Should Rodgers continue to average 34.2 attempts per game, that's 547 for a season (would still put him at #7 last year). If Finely continues to get 21% of those, that's 115 targets (would be #3 this past year). If he catches 75% of those, that's 86 catches (#2 this past year). Even 12 yards a pop would be over 1,000 yards.You can find stats that show anything (which is what I was doing earlier playing devil's advocate), but even at only 75% catch rate and 12 yards per....it doesn't look bad for a healthy Finely.

 

[FavreCo]

There is no doubt that I need this guy to be hurt every year. He cuts into my sweetness.

-signed, Greg Jennings

 

[eaglesfan7]

Supposedly looking good in private workouts with the knee. Is this the year he takes his game to the next level, stays healthy and is considered a top 3 tight end along with Gates and Clark?

 

[humpback]

Supposedly looking good in private workouts with the knee. Is this the year he takes his game to the next level, stays healthy and is considered a top 3 tight end along with Gates and Clark?

All comes down to health. If he stays healthy, I'm confident he'll be considered a top tier TE, but that's a big "if".

 

[Go deep]

Supposedly looking good in private workouts with the knee. Is this the year he takes his game to the next level, stays healthy and is considered a top 32 tight end along with Gates and Clark?

Yes

 

[pretender]

So in a dynasty ppr at 1.5 for TE's only - worth a 1.10 pick? over top QB or WR or RB who all are ppr at 1 - QB's at 5 ?

if you average him out over last season using the pts he had in first 4 games he ends up in the 270 pts in this league startup.

 

[pretender]

As a Packer fan - I think his value puts him up with Gates or Clark - I agree that Jimmy Graham can be had a little cheaper - but Brees has a lot of places to go with the ball and tends to share it alot. Rodgers hones in on Finley - he is such a mismatch for most linebackers and or safeties that try and cover him.

There is still room for Jennings and another WR. I am still hoping with the return of Grant and the emergence of Starks - that will actually improve Jennings/Finley and company even more.

 

[GoodLloydHaveMercy]

career averages

Gates 66.4% catch rate and 13.2 ypc

Gonzo 65.7% catch rate and 11.7 ypc

Finley 75.2% catch rate and 12.8 ypc

His catch rate thus far in his career has been phenomenal and probably partially due to Rodgers accuracy, but anticipating 80% catch rate is questionable. Also with him coming off significant injury bumping him up from his career average of 12.8 even only to 13.0 ypc seems a little shaky as well.

I wish I had him on a dynasty because it seems he would be a great player to move with expectations for the future running almost equal to the unreal hype of last summer.

I'm not sure if there's a huge market for him. Current price tag is way too high. No upside here.

Au contraire... I had him in dynasty (Non-PPR) and I was able to move him for Vernon Davis and 1.2 in the rookie draft. The dude I traded him too is very concerned about VDs QB situation so I pounced and I feel that I'm assured to get AJ Green at 1.2 because the guy at 1.1 NEEDS RBs desparately and is loaded at WR.... here's to hoping I didn't make a mistake (I waffle about this decision)

I feel it should be worth it as long as I end up with AJ Green. Obviously the price tag is high but if you find the right deal then I think you should jump on it. (even as I type this I'm worried that I shoulda kept Finley )

 

[cr8f]

As a Packer fan - I think his value puts him up with Gates or Clark - I agree that Jimmy Graham can be had a little cheaper - but Brees has a lot of places to go with the ball and tends to share it alot. Rodgers hones in on Finley - he is such a mismatch for most linebackers and or safeties that try and cover him. There is still room for Jennings and another WR. I am still hoping with the return of Grant and the emergence of Starks - that will actually improve Jennings/Finley and company even more.

He's. Mismatch for everyone if he can stay healthy. Someone bid $60 on him in RFA and I would get the sixty plus the 1.11 for him. I may have to take it.

 

[Go deep]

driver 65/1000/5jennings 70/1150/7finley 75/1125/12rodgers 4600/37/12grant 240/950/7figured id let everyone know how things will go this year in green bay before opening day. hope this helps

Driver 48/620/4Jennings 81/1290/10Finley 85/1070/12Rodgers 4475/35/14Grant 1000/7Bet im closer.

Are you predicting Driver getting hurt?

Drivers actual numbers in 15 games: 51/565/4Oh, while im at it.Jennings actual numbers 76/1265/12

 

[sho nuff]

driver 65/1000/5jennings 70/1150/7finley 75/1125/12rodgers 4600/37/12grant 240/950/7figured id let everyone know how things will go this year in green bay before opening day. hope this helps

Driver 48/620/4Jennings 81/1290/10Finley 85/1070/12Rodgers 4475/35/14Grant 1000/7Bet im closer.

Are you predicting Driver getting hurt?

Drivers actual numbers in 15 games: 51/565/4Oh, while im at it.Jennings actual numbers 76/1265/12

How about Finley's while you are trying to pat yourself on the back.I posted a simple question...did you expect he would get hurt?

 

[Go deep]

driver 65/1000/5jennings 70/1150/7finley 75/1125/12rodgers 4600/37/12grant 240/950/7figured id let everyone know how things will go this year in green bay before opening day. hope this helps

Driver 48/620/4Jennings 81/1290/10Finley 85/1070/12Rodgers 4475/35/14Grant 1000/7Bet im closer.

Are you predicting Driver getting hurt?

Drivers actual numbers in 15 games: 51/565/4Oh, while im at it.Jennings actual numbers 76/1265/12

How about Finley's while you are trying to pat yourself on the back.I posted a simple question...did you expect he would get hurt?

Your question wasnt a simple do i think Driver wil get hurt, it was clearly you insinuating i was crazy for predicting a healthy Driver would only catch 48 passes. As far as Finley, i dont predict injuries. However, Finleys numerbs prrated would have given him 84 rec, 1204 yards, 4 TD's. Not that far off my predriction of 85/1070/12....other than the TD's.Either way, i wasnt trying to pat myself on the back...well, maybe a little. My point was to show you that i was right last year, and now you are calling me crazy again saying he wont be a big factor in the GB offense again this season.If you want me to tell you whats going to happen in GB again this year, just ask.

 

[sho nuff]

Your question wasnt a simple do i think Driver wil get hurt, it was clearly you insinuating i was crazy for predicting a healthy Driver would only catch 48 passes. As far as Finley, i dont predict injuries. However, Finleys numerbs prrated would have given him 84 rec, 1204 yards, 4 TD's. Not that far off my predriction of 85/1070/12....other than the TD's.Either way, i wasnt trying to pat myself on the back...well, maybe a little. My point was to show you that i was right last year, and now you are calling me crazy again saying he wont be a big factor in the GB offense again this season.If you want me to tell you whats going to happen in GB again this year, just ask.

And others questioned you too.And he did miss at least one game due to injury and was not completely right in a few others.Where did I call you crazy on what factor he would be this year?

 

[Hjelle9]

“Jermichael, in my mind, is like Michael Irvin playing tight end,” McAdoo added.

 

[cr8f]

“Jermichael, in my mind, is like Michael Irvin playing tight end,” McAdoo added.

I'd be offended-Finley doesn't need to push off to get open.

 

[djmich]

So in a dynasty ppr at 1.5 for TE's only - worth a 1.10 pick? over top QB or WR or RB who all are ppr at 1 - QB's at 5 ?if you average him out over last season using the pts he had in first 4 games he ends up in the 270 pts in this league startup.

I have Finley and not sure I'd move him for pick 1.3

 

[Hjelle9]

Some offseason reading for the haters.http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Why-Finleys-2011-return-has-me-talking-football.html

Look for more Red 2 (CBs sink to create an almost 5-deep look) vs. Green Bay this season. Because I don’t have a real good answer to give you right now to defend him in the red zone.

http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2011/5/30/2197552/pro-football-focus-finley-has-great-hands

Last week, Pro Football Focus had a post on tight ends who did a great job at catching the passes that were thrown their way. One of the best over the past three season has been Green Bay Packers TE Jermichael Finley. He dropped just above 6% of the catchable passes thrown to him since 2008, which is among the Top 10 in the NFL. From Pro Football Focus:

12+ TDs. Time for the takeover.