Based on camp and the first preseason game, he will be a monster. However.....Rodgers throws to so many people....that will be the limiting factor on Finleys upside. Top 5 TE - I think very likely. #1 TE - hard to do with how Rodgers distributes the ball
I sort of disagree with your analysis. Yes, Rodgers spreads it. But Finley seems to be the #1 option on many of the plays now, especially around the goal line.Gates is the only other TE in recent memory who's been the #1 option on a juggernaut offense. And while that's the case again this year for AG, I think I'd still rather have Finley this year. The Bolts passing game is very good, but Rodgers and the Pack are one tier above with the likes of Brees and Manning.
The only TE I think that I'd rather have than Finley this year is Clark (maybe), but you'd have to draft him two rounds higher and I'm not so sure that he's as consistently the #1 option for Manning as Finley now appears to be for Rodgers.
I do agree with the guy who expressed concerns about Finley's floor, but not with his take on take Tony G instead. TG's ceiling is much lower than Finley's IMO.