Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers (1 Viewer)

[SSOG]

I agree that those projected numbers are most likely unreachable or too high, but the main point here is Finley got tremendous upside, and that point alone you don't seem to agree.

There's no "most likely unreachable", here. They're unreachable, plain and simple. We're talking about fantasy numbers 30% better than anything Tony Gonzalez has ever put up in his entire career. TONY GONZALEZ. You might have heard of him- he's kind of good. Is Jermichael Finley 30% better than Tony G has ever been in any season of his career? I happen to agree that Finley has great upside. If you look in my sig, you'll notice that I own him in dynasty. I went out and traded for him just about a month ago, so obviously I love his dynasty prospects enough to go out and acquire him. Where I disagree is what qualifies as "tremendous upside" for a TE. 1,000 yards and 8 TDs is tremendous, tremendous upside from the TE position. That's pretty much sure-fire top-3 production. In an off year, that's enough to rank a TE #1 overall. Again, to give an analogue, saying Finley has 1300/15 upside is like saying Shonn Greene has 2800/42 upside. He doesn't, plain and simple. And the other poster wasn't talking about UPSIDE... that was his projection! Not an "if everything breaks right, Finley might possibly be able to flirt with these numbers", but a straight up "I expect Finley to achieve these numbers, full stop".

I was 100% with you until the bolded word. We're not talking about Martellus Bennett here.

ETA: Talking purely about production, if Finley's 55/676/5 counted as "no" production, then Tony Gonzalez's 59/621/2 also had "no" production in his second year. Tony G went for 76/849/11 in his third year.

People are going loco predicting numbers for Finley, that's clear. And people generally overestimate the likelihood their guy is going to become the next Tony Gonzalez/Ray Rice/Chris Johnson/etc. But sometimes those leaps do happen; the key is weighing the other factors to figure out how likely that type of leap is from the player in question.

Jermichael Finley has never once ranked in the top 12 at the position which has the lowest threshold for reaching the top 12. He has 750 career receiving yards. I'm not saying that he has not shown anything, or that there's no reason to be optimistic about him, I'm saying that he has no production. His numbers to date are, historically speaking, practically nonexistent. I stand by what I said. His 676 receiving yards last year are the 181st highest single-season total a TE has put up since 1960. Jermichael Finley's production, from a historical standpoint, has been pretty much nonexistent. Now, obviously there are extenuating circumstances (he missed time, he was only in his second year), but the simple fact is that people are projecting record production from a guy who currently stands 181st on the single-season receiving yardage list among TEs.Also, pulling out Tony Gonzalez is silly. Hindsight is 20/20. Yes, Gonzalez went for 74 points in his second year and 150 points in his second year... but do you really want me to pull up a list of how many people have gone for <100 points in year two who HAVEN'T gone on to put up 150+ points in year 3? Just because Tony Gonzalez made a huge leap from year 2 to year 3 doesn't mean you have to overrate every 2nd year TE until the end of time hoping they're the next Tony Gonzalez. People are pricing Finley like he's already made the leap, like he's already become the next Tony Gonzalez, and they're ignoring the inconvenient little fact that Finley still hasn't done anything yet.

 

[Redmen62]

I agree that those projected numbers are most likely unreachable or too high, but the main point here is Finley got tremendous upside, and that point alone you don't seem to agree.

There's no "most likely unreachable", here. They're unreachable, plain and simple. We're talking about fantasy numbers 30% better than anything Tony Gonzalez has ever put up in his entire career. TONY GONZALEZ. You might have heard of him- he's kind of good. Is Jermichael Finley 30% better than Tony G has ever been in any season of his career? I happen to agree that Finley has great upside. If you look in my sig, you'll notice that I own him in dynasty. I went out and traded for him just about a month ago, so obviously I love his dynasty prospects enough to go out and acquire him. Where I disagree is what qualifies as "tremendous upside" for a TE. 1,000 yards and 8 TDs is tremendous, tremendous upside from the TE position. That's pretty much sure-fire top-3 production. In an off year, that's enough to rank a TE #1 overall. Again, to give an analogue, saying Finley has 1300/15 upside is like saying Shonn Greene has 2800/42 upside. He doesn't, plain and simple. And the other poster wasn't talking about UPSIDE... that was his projection! Not an "if everything breaks right, Finley might possibly be able to flirt with these numbers", but a straight up "I expect Finley to achieve these numbers, full stop".

I was 100% with you until the bolded word. We're not talking about Martellus Bennett here.

ETA: Talking purely about production, if Finley's 55/676/5 counted as "no" production, then Tony Gonzalez's 59/621/2 also had "no" production in his second year. Tony G went for 76/849/11 in his third year.

People are going loco predicting numbers for Finley, that's clear. And people generally overestimate the likelihood their guy is going to become the next Tony Gonzalez/Ray Rice/Chris Johnson/etc. But sometimes those leaps do happen; the key is weighing the other factors to figure out how likely that type of leap is from the player in question.

Jermichael Finley has never once ranked in the top 12 at the position which has the lowest threshold for reaching the top 12. He has 750 career receiving yards. I'm not saying that he has not shown anything, or that there's no reason to be optimistic about him, I'm saying that he has no production. His numbers to date are, historically speaking, practically nonexistent. I stand by what I said. His 676 receiving yards last year are the 181st highest single-season total a TE has put up since 1960. Jermichael Finley's production, from a historical standpoint, has been pretty much nonexistent. Now, obviously there are extenuating circumstances (he missed time, he was only in his second year), but the simple fact is that people are projecting record production from a guy who currently stands 181st on the single-season receiving yardage list among TEs.Also, pulling out Tony Gonzalez is silly. Hindsight is 20/20. Yes, Gonzalez went for 74 points in his second year and 150 points in his second year... but do you really want me to pull up a list of how many people have gone for <100 points in year two who HAVEN'T gone on to put up 150+ points in year 3? Just because Tony Gonzalez made a huge leap from year 2 to year 3 doesn't mean you have to overrate every 2nd year TE until the end of time hoping they're the next Tony Gonzalez. People are pricing Finley like he's already made the leap, like he's already become the next Tony Gonzalez, and they're ignoring the inconvenient little fact that Finley still hasn't done anything yet.

We disagree about whether he's done "nothing", then. I don't think production is binary- i.e. either you've had an elite/top 12 season or you haven't. He has had much-more-than-nothing production over a sample size of less than a full season. Whether or not that more-than-nothing production will translate to future full seasons is a separate issue; it's weird to me to say that his second-half amounted to "no"production. Put another way, last season Finley was the pre-season hot shot du jour. Everyone raved about his talent, how dominant he looked, etc. Despite this, he hovered in the TE20 range for dynasty value (according to FBG) through most of the season. Obviously he's gone from ~TE20 to TE4-5 in dynasty value; during this big jump, knowledgeable people didn't change their perception about Finley's talent very much. Instead, the main thing that precipitated that jump was the demonstrated production on the field.

Put yet another way, last year during the preseason, Jermichael Finley was Martellus Bennett- decent draft pedigree, solid-to-excellent measureables, flashes of dominance in practice and training camp. Bennett still has all those things, and he's a dynasty afterthought. The thing that has distinguished Finley from Bennett is that Finley has translated all those indicators into actual, demonstrated performance on an NFL field. Again, you can argue that the sample size is smaller than you'd like, but doing that with every breakout player is a good way to miss out on countless studs. Waiting until he's done it for another season WOULD mean you'd have to pay Tony Gonzalez in-his-prime or Antonio Gates prices.

 

[TaxMan]

I agree that those projected numbers are most likely unreachable or too high, but the main point here is Finley got tremendous upside, and that point alone you don't seem to agree.

There's no "most likely unreachable", here. They're unreachable, plain and simple. We're talking about fantasy numbers 30% better than anything Tony Gonzalez has ever put up in his entire career. TONY GONZALEZ. You might have heard of him- he's kind of good. Is Jermichael Finley 30% better than Tony G has ever been in any season of his career? I happen to agree that Finley has great upside. If you look in my sig, you'll notice that I own him in dynasty. I went out and traded for him just about a month ago, so obviously I love his dynasty prospects enough to go out and acquire him. Where I disagree is what qualifies as "tremendous upside" for a TE. 1,000 yards and 8 TDs is tremendous, tremendous upside from the TE position. That's pretty much sure-fire top-3 production. In an off year, that's enough to rank a TE #1 overall. Again, to give an analogue, saying Finley has 1300/15 upside is like saying Shonn Greene has 2800/42 upside. He doesn't, plain and simple. And the other poster wasn't talking about UPSIDE... that was his projection! Not an "if everything breaks right, Finley might possibly be able to flirt with these numbers", but a straight up "I expect Finley to achieve these numbers, full stop".

I was 100% with you until the bolded word. We're not talking about Martellus Bennett here.

ETA: Talking purely about production, if Finley's 55/676/5 counted as "no" production, then Tony Gonzalez's 59/621/2 also had "no" production in his second year. Tony G went for 76/849/11 in his third year.

People are going loco predicting numbers for Finley, that's clear. And people generally overestimate the likelihood their guy is going to become the next Tony Gonzalez/Ray Rice/Chris Johnson/etc. But sometimes those leaps do happen; the key is weighing the other factors to figure out how likely that type of leap is from the player in question.

Jermichael Finley has never once ranked in the top 12 at the position which has the lowest threshold for reaching the top 12. He has 750 career receiving yards. I'm not saying that he has not shown anything, or that there's no reason to be optimistic about him, I'm saying that he has no production. His numbers to date are, historically speaking, practically nonexistent. I stand by what I said. His 676 receiving yards last year are the 181st highest single-season total a TE has put up since 1960. Jermichael Finley's production, from a historical standpoint, has been pretty much nonexistent. Now, obviously there are extenuating circumstances (he missed time, he was only in his second year), but the simple fact is that people are projecting record production from a guy who currently stands 181st on the single-season receiving yardage list among TEs.Also, pulling out Tony Gonzalez is silly. Hindsight is 20/20. Yes, Gonzalez went for 74 points in his second year and 150 points in his second year... but do you really want me to pull up a list of how many people have gone for <100 points in year two who HAVEN'T gone on to put up 150+ points in year 3? Just because Tony Gonzalez made a huge leap from year 2 to year 3 doesn't mean you have to overrate every 2nd year TE until the end of time hoping they're the next Tony Gonzalez. People are pricing Finley like he's already made the leap, like he's already become the next Tony Gonzalez, and they're ignoring the inconvenient little fact that Finley still hasn't done anything yet.

So you're saying he has upside, but not at 1000 yards since that level hasn't been reached often in the past? Well, this is a néw era, and Finley lines up at WR a Lot more than the usual TE now and in the past. I appreciate all the statistics/history and saying guys are overblowing their projections on Finley and that may be the case, but it won't surprise me one bit if he's number UNO on TE in 2010, and I know you would be eventhough you think he has some upside. It won't surprise me at all if he's neck and neck with Jennings in targets for 2010, in the 130-140 range.

 

[SSOG]

So you're saying he has upside, but not at 1000 yards since that level hasn't been reached often in the past? Well, this is a néw era, and Finley lines up at WR a Lot more than the usual TE now and in the past. I appreciate all the statistics/history and saying guys are overblowing their projections on Finley and that may be the case, but it won't surprise me one bit if he's number UNO on TE in 2010, and I know you would be eventhough you think he has some upside. It won't surprise me at all if he's neck and neck with Jennings in targets for 2010, in the 130-140 range.

I said he did have upside at the 1000 yard level. If everything broke just right for him, I could even see something like 1100/8. I said that he didn't have upside at the 1350 yard level, or the 15 TD level, or the 105 reception level.Even if you want to play the "Finley's really just a WR!" card... he was projected for 227.5 fantasy points. That's more than Andre Johnson has ever scored. It's more than Larry Fitzgerald has ever scored. Desean Jackson could have scored SIX MORE TDS last year and he still wouldn't have reached 227.5 fantasy points. This isn't just a matter of "well, if Finley was a WR instead of a TE those numbers might be reasonable". Even if he were a WR, those numbers would make him the greatest WR in the entire national football league. Better than Andre Johnson. Better than Larry Fitzgerald. And it's not like Finley is the first TE to line up at WR- Dallas Clark has been doing it so frequently and for so long that when he was franchised, he argued that the Colts should pay him based on the top 5 WRs, not the top 5 TEs. And Dallas Clark is incredibly talented, and he catches balls from Peyton Manning, to boot. Despite that, Clark has never come within FIFTY POINTS of some of these Finley projections. Last year was far and away the best year of Dallas Clark's career- the proven Dallas Clark, the All Pro Dallas Clark, the secretly a WR catching passes from the most prolific passer in NFL history Dallas Clark... and he finished with 1100/10. And that was with everything breaking right for him- Peyton playing lights out, Gonzalez getting hurt, etc. I think that's a perfectly rational and reasonable UPSIDE projection for Finley. And that's a ton of upside! That was enough to rank Clark #1 last year! If you think Finley has all-world upside, there's no need to get crazy and start throwing out numbers way higher than 1100 yards or 8-10 scores!I wouldn't be at all surprised if Finley was the #1 TE this year- again, it's not like I acquired him because I thought he was terrible, right? The difference between me and a lot of people in this thread is that I don't think finishing as the #1 TE is a lock or Finley's birthright or anything silly like that, and I'm also a lot more realistic about what, exactly, "#1 TE" really means. 1350/15 are not #1 TE numbers, those are greatest TE to ever play the game of football numbers. A simple 1100/8 is a much more realistic "#1 TE" projection.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

Finley will not finish in the Top 10 at the TE position. Just want to go on record now. Carry on.

 

[Creed Bratton]

Finley will not finish in the Top 10 at the TE position. Just want to go on record now. Carry on.

Care to say why?

 

[massraider]

Finley will not finish in the Top 10 at the TE position. Just want to go on record now. Carry on.

Care to say why?

He'll be too busy saving the world from Lex Luthor.

 

[TaxMan]

So you're saying he has upside, but not at 1000 yards since that level hasn't been reached often in the past? Well, this is a néw era, and Finley lines up at WR a Lot more than the usual TE now and in the past. I appreciate all the statistics/history and saying guys are overblowing their projections on Finley and that may be the case, but it won't surprise me one bit if he's number UNO on TE in 2010, and I know you would be eventhough you think he has some upside. It won't surprise me at all if he's neck and neck with Jennings in targets for 2010, in the 130-140 range.

I said he did have upside at the 1000 yard level. If everything broke just right for him, I could even see something like 1100/8. I said that he didn't have upside at the 1350 yard level, or the 15 TD level, or the 105 reception level.Even if you want to play the "Finley's really just a WR!" card... he was projected for 227.5 fantasy points. That's more than Andre Johnson has ever scored. It's more than Larry Fitzgerald has ever scored. Desean Jackson could have scored SIX MORE TDS last year and he still wouldn't have reached 227.5 fantasy points. This isn't just a matter of "well, if Finley was a WR instead of a TE those numbers might be reasonable". Even if he were a WR, those numbers would make him the greatest WR in the entire national football league. Better than Andre Johnson. Better than Larry Fitzgerald. And it's not like Finley is the first TE to line up at WR- Dallas Clark has been doing it so frequently and for so long that when he was franchised, he argued that the Colts should pay him based on the top 5 WRs, not the top 5 TEs. And Dallas Clark is incredibly talented, and he catches balls from Peyton Manning, to boot. Despite that, Clark has never come within FIFTY POINTS of some of these Finley projections. Last year was far and away the best year of Dallas Clark's career- the proven Dallas Clark, the All Pro Dallas Clark, the secretly a WR catching passes from the most prolific passer in NFL history Dallas Clark... and he finished with 1100/10. And that was with everything breaking right for him- Peyton playing lights out, Gonzalez getting hurt, etc. I think that's a perfectly rational and reasonable UPSIDE projection for Finley. And that's a ton of upside! That was enough to rank Clark #1 last year! If you think Finley has all-world upside, there's no need to get crazy and start throwing out numbers way higher than 1100 yards or 8-10 scores!I wouldn't be at all surprised if Finley was the #1 TE this year- again, it's not like I acquired him because I thought he was terrible, right? The difference between me and a lot of people in this thread is that I don't think finishing as the #1 TE is a lock or Finley's birthright or anything silly like that, and I'm also a lot more realistic about what, exactly, "#1 TE" really means. 1350/15 are not #1 TE numbers, those are greatest TE to ever play the game of football numbers. A simple 1100/8 is a much more realistic "#1 TE" projection.

You are focusing on the highest projection posted, I'm not. Yes, he will not get 1300 yds, but we do agree he has a chance to end up #1 TE. As a Finley owner in 5 dynasty leagues, the optimism here is scaring me a little. We need some Finley haters to come on board to even this a little.

 

[Go deep]

Finley will not finish in the Top 10 at the TE position. Just want to go on record now. Carry on.

Care to say why?

Because he doesnt own him in his dynasty leagues?

 

[Creed Bratton]

So you're saying he has upside, but not at 1000 yards since that level hasn't been reached often in the past? Well, this is a néw era, and Finley lines up at WR a Lot more than the usual TE now and in the past. I appreciate all the statistics/history and saying guys are overblowing their projections on Finley and that may be the case, but it won't surprise me one bit if he's number UNO on TE in 2010, and I know you would be eventhough you think he has some upside. It won't surprise me at all if he's neck and neck with Jennings in targets for 2010, in the 130-140 range.

I said he did have upside at the 1000 yard level. If everything broke just right for him, I could even see something like 1100/8. I said that he didn't have upside at the 1350 yard level, or the 15 TD level, or the 105 reception level.Even if you want to play the "Finley's really just a WR!" card... he was projected for 227.5 fantasy points. That's more than Andre Johnson has ever scored. It's more than Larry Fitzgerald has ever scored. Desean Jackson could have scored SIX MORE TDS last year and he still wouldn't have reached 227.5 fantasy points. This isn't just a matter of "well, if Finley was a WR instead of a TE those numbers might be reasonable". Even if he were a WR, those numbers would make him the greatest WR in the entire national football league. Better than Andre Johnson. Better than Larry Fitzgerald. And it's not like Finley is the first TE to line up at WR- Dallas Clark has been doing it so frequently and for so long that when he was franchised, he argued that the Colts should pay him based on the top 5 WRs, not the top 5 TEs. And Dallas Clark is incredibly talented, and he catches balls from Peyton Manning, to boot. Despite that, Clark has never come within FIFTY POINTS of some of these Finley projections. Last year was far and away the best year of Dallas Clark's career- the proven Dallas Clark, the All Pro Dallas Clark, the secretly a WR catching passes from the most prolific passer in NFL history Dallas Clark... and he finished with 1100/10. And that was with everything breaking right for him- Peyton playing lights out, Gonzalez getting hurt, etc. I think that's a perfectly rational and reasonable UPSIDE projection for Finley. And that's a ton of upside! That was enough to rank Clark #1 last year! If you think Finley has all-world upside, there's no need to get crazy and start throwing out numbers way higher than 1100 yards or 8-10 scores!I wouldn't be at all surprised if Finley was the #1 TE this year- again, it's not like I acquired him because I thought he was terrible, right? The difference between me and a lot of people in this thread is that I don't think finishing as the #1 TE is a lock or Finley's birthright or anything silly like that, and I'm also a lot more realistic about what, exactly, "#1 TE" really means. 1350/15 are not #1 TE numbers, those are greatest TE to ever play the game of football numbers. A simple 1100/8 is a much more realistic "#1 TE" projection.

You are focusing on the highest projection posted, I'm not. Yes, he will not get 1300 yds, but we do agree he has a chance to end up #1 TE. As a Finley owner in 5 dynasty leagues, the optimism here is scaring me a little. We need some Finley haters to come on board to even this a little.

What do Finley haters have to hate on? He's in a great situation and appears to be legitimately talented(at least to me). Reading this thread, I guess the real question has to do with value. He's getting ranked pretty consistently between TE3-TE7 in the rankings and most people would probably agree with that range. Seeing how many people are high on him, is he worth reaching for in your draft and paying the premium? I think he has the upside to finish as the top TE this season, but this isn't 2003 where having the top TE gave you a big positional advantage against your peers. I think it's just better to draft for value here, cause drafting the top ranked TE the last couple years probably wasn't a huge advantage, and probably won't be this year either. He could offer value if you're drafting with players who prefer more established players and, personally, I'd take him any time after Gates and Clark are off the board if I wanted an elite tight end.80 catches for 975 yards and 9 touchdowns.

 

[Go deep]

So you're saying he has upside, but not at 1000 yards since that level hasn't been reached often in the past? Well, this is a néw era, and Finley lines up at WR a Lot more than the usual TE now and in the past. I appreciate all the statistics/history and saying guys are overblowing their projections on Finley and that may be the case, but it won't surprise me one bit if he's number UNO on TE in 2010, and I know you would be eventhough you think he has some upside. It won't surprise me at all if he's neck and neck with Jennings in targets for 2010, in the 130-140 range.

I said he did have upside at the 1000 yard level. If everything broke just right for him, I could even see something like 1100/8. I said that he didn't have upside at the 1350 yard level, or the 15 TD level, or the 105 reception level.Even if you want to play the "Finley's really just a WR!" card... he was projected for 227.5 fantasy points. That's more than Andre Johnson has ever scored. It's more than Larry Fitzgerald has ever scored. Desean Jackson could have scored SIX MORE TDS last year and he still wouldn't have reached 227.5 fantasy points. This isn't just a matter of "well, if Finley was a WR instead of a TE those numbers might be reasonable". Even if he were a WR, those numbers would make him the greatest WR in the entire national football league. Better than Andre Johnson. Better than Larry Fitzgerald. And it's not like Finley is the first TE to line up at WR- Dallas Clark has been doing it so frequently and for so long that when he was franchised, he argued that the Colts should pay him based on the top 5 WRs, not the top 5 TEs. And Dallas Clark is incredibly talented, and he catches balls from Peyton Manning, to boot. Despite that, Clark has never come within FIFTY POINTS of some of these Finley projections. Last year was far and away the best year of Dallas Clark's career- the proven Dallas Clark, the All Pro Dallas Clark, the secretly a WR catching passes from the most prolific passer in NFL history Dallas Clark... and he finished with 1100/10. And that was with everything breaking right for him- Peyton playing lights out, Gonzalez getting hurt, etc. I think that's a perfectly rational and reasonable UPSIDE projection for Finley. And that's a ton of upside! That was enough to rank Clark #1 last year! If you think Finley has all-world upside, there's no need to get crazy and start throwing out numbers way higher than 1100 yards or 8-10 scores!

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Finley was the #1 TE this year- again, it's not like I acquired him because I thought he was terrible, right? The difference between me and a lot of people in this thread is that I don't think finishing as the #1 TE is a lock or Finley's birthright or anything silly like that, and I'm also a lot more realistic about what, exactly, "#1 TE" really means. 1350/15 are not #1 TE numbers, those are greatest TE to ever play the game of football numbers. A simple 1100/8 is a much more realistic "#1 TE" projection.

You are focusing on the highest projection posted, I'm not. Yes, he will not get 1300 yds, but we do agree he has a chance to end up #1 TE.

As a Finley owner in 5 dynasty leagues, the optimism here is scaring me a little. We need some Finley haters to come on board to even this a little.

What do Finley haters have to hate on? He's in a great situation and appears to be legitimately talented(at least to me). Reading this thread, I guess the real question has to do with value. He's getting ranked pretty consistently between TE3-TE7 in the rankings and most people would probably agree with that range. Seeing how many people are high on him, is he worth reaching for in your draft and paying the premium? I think he has the upside to finish as the top TE this season, but this isn't 2003 where having the top TE gave you a big positional advantage against your peers. I think it's just better to draft for value here, cause drafting the top ranked TE the last couple years probably wasn't a huge advantage, and probably won't be this year either. He could offer value if you're drafting with players who prefer more established players and, personally, I'd take him any time after Gates and Clark are off the board if I wanted an elite tight end.

80 catches for 975 yards and 9 touchdowns.

I remember how big of an advantage having TG was back then. In my main redraft league in the early 2000's the big question was always how high will someone take Tony Gonzalez this year.With all the hype Finley is getting, and not just on FBG, he will not be offering much value in 2010 drafts. I would certainly take him as the 5th or 6th TE off the board, but he likely will not make it that far.

 

[Hjelle9]

Why would we be surprised if he outproduces guys like Tony Gonzalez(he didn't even have a respectable QB to get him the ball in his prime) and Shannon Sharpe who were on run-first teams and had very little in common with the utilization methods employed by the Packers with JF. I dont think anyone fully appreciates McCarthy's overwhelming tendency to call pass plays inside the 10 and even 5 yard lines. It's never going to stop most likely and at least not until the offensive line personnel is almost completely turned over from our aging and less than mauling veteran offensive lineman. This was not the case with Gonzalez or Sharpe. They would recieve play action looks after Priest Holmes and Clinton Portis had rushed for 3 scores on their way to fantasy supremacy behind their respective prominent O-lines.

We already know he was the 4th most targeted tight end in the redzone despite everything working against him last year and that's only going to dramatically increase this season as the primary tight end and target in a spread offense with enough weapons and with a top 5 QB(aren't we expecting even more maturation this year?) capable of exploiting each weapon for a large gain if the defense is cheating towards a particular player, and a nice play action passing game set up by Ryan Grant's ability to be a consistent threat. Does anyone really disagree he's going to AT LEAST eat up Donald Lee's targets/production(will clearly exceed his production on the # of targets as Lee was so horrible last year) and have at least 125 targets? He's the biggest physical mismatch in the NFL on one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league. It's really a perfect storm.

Doesnt hurt to be able to fling it around against all the terrible secondaries and coverage linebackers in the NFC North. Rodgers had 5 rushing TDs and all those yards largely in part because he learned early and often(week 4 at the metrodome on 4th and goal really stands out) he can't trust Donald Lee to catch a checkdown(Rodgers had two of his seasons highest rushing attempts: (7 and 5) in weeks that Finley was sidelined and the highest total(8) in a week 3 blowout of the Rams in which Finley was still being under-utilized and the Rams were just desperately dropping back in blanket coverage after being burned early and often). That won't be the case this year and I suspect based on commentary from McCarthy he's made it clear he prefers Rodgers to throw the ball to the weapons he and Ted have assembled and coached up so well rather than risking their crown jewel. Trust me, McCarthy won't allow Rodgers to appear 2nd on the rushing attempts list ahead of Vince Young and 23 attemps ahead of Romo. Those are going to be quicker more fluent pass plays intended to keep the offense on schedule. The majority will logically funnel throgh Finely. Every aspect that's evolving moving into 2010 just equals more work for Finley.

 

[SSOG]

Why would we be surprised if he outproduces guys like Tony Gonzalez(he didn't even have a respectable QB to get him the ball in his prime) and Shannon Sharpe who were on run-first teams and had very little in common with the utilization methods employed by the Packers with JF.

Because guys like Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe were the most productive receiving TEs that the National Football league has ever seen. You think Jermichael Finley is the first TE to ever play in a pass-first offense? A huge reason why Gonzo put up those sick numbers is because his primary competition for receptions was Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton, and Marc Boerigter- hardly Jennings/Driver/Jones/Nelson, here. Also, Gonzo had one of the top 3 QBs in the entire league slinging him the ball. Trent Green was a stud. He was a perennial 4,000 yard passer with Kennison as his WR1.

 

[DoubleG]

Finley will not finish in the Top 10 at the TE position. Just want to go on record now. Carry on.

Care to say why?

He'll be too busy saving the world from Lex Luthor.

 

[DoubleG]

Why would we be surprised if he outproduces guys like Tony Gonzalez(he didn't even have a respectable QB to get him the ball in his prime) and Shannon Sharpe who were on run-first teams and had very little in common with the utilization methods employed by the Packers with JF.

Because guys like Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe were the most productive receiving TEs that the National Football league has had ever seen to this point. You think Jermichael Finley is the first TE to ever play in a pass-first offense? A huge reason why Gonzo put up those sick numbers is because his primary competition for receptions was Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton, and Marc Boerigter- hardly Jennings/Driver/Jones/Nelson, here. Also, Gonzo had one of the top 3 QBs in the entire league slinging him the ball. Trent Green was a stud. He was a perennial 4,000 yard passer with Kennison as his WR1.

My point being, that just becuase it hasn't been done to this point in history (especially with rules favoring the passing game more now than ever) - doesn't mean those numbers will never be surpassed. In fact, most will agree that they likely will at some point in the future. Now, I am not disagreeing with anything that you have posted (my projections posted earlier are "conservative" compared to most in this thread i.e. <1000 yards and single digit TDs) - I am just suggesting that it is within the realm of possibility that Finley will be the guy to take it to the next level. All the indicators seem to be there. Decent pedigree, physical tools (size, strength, speed, hands), opportunity and a very good QB.All in all a fantastic discussion all around.

 

[TaxMan]

So you're saying he has upside, but not at 1000 yards since that level hasn't been reached often in the past? Well, this is a néw era, and Finley lines up at WR a Lot more than the usual TE now and in the past. I appreciate all the statistics/history and saying guys are overblowing their projections on Finley and that may be the case, but it won't surprise me one bit if he's number UNO on TE in 2010, and I know you would be eventhough you think he has some upside. It won't surprise me at all if he's neck and neck with Jennings in targets for 2010, in the 130-140 range.

I said he did have upside at the 1000 yard level. If everything broke just right for him, I could even see something like 1100/8. I said that he didn't have upside at the 1350 yard level, or the 15 TD level, or the 105 reception level.Even if you want to play the "Finley's really just a WR!" card... he was projected for 227.5 fantasy points. That's more than Andre Johnson has ever scored. It's more than Larry Fitzgerald has ever scored. Desean Jackson could have scored SIX MORE TDS last year and he still wouldn't have reached 227.5 fantasy points. This isn't just a matter of "well, if Finley was a WR instead of a TE those numbers might be reasonable". Even if he were a WR, those numbers would make him the greatest WR in the entire national football league. Better than Andre Johnson. Better than Larry Fitzgerald. And it's not like Finley is the first TE to line up at WR- Dallas Clark has been doing it so frequently and for so long that when he was franchised, he argued that the Colts should pay him based on the top 5 WRs, not the top 5 TEs. And Dallas Clark is incredibly talented, and he catches balls from Peyton Manning, to boot. Despite that, Clark has never come within FIFTY POINTS of some of these Finley projections. Last year was far and away the best year of Dallas Clark's career- the proven Dallas Clark, the All Pro Dallas Clark, the secretly a WR catching passes from the most prolific passer in NFL history Dallas Clark... and he finished with 1100/10. And that was with everything breaking right for him- Peyton playing lights out, Gonzalez getting hurt, etc. I think that's a perfectly rational and reasonable UPSIDE projection for Finley. And that's a ton of upside! That was enough to rank Clark #1 last year! If you think Finley has all-world upside, there's no need to get crazy and start throwing out numbers way higher than 1100 yards or 8-10 scores!I wouldn't be at all surprised if Finley was the #1 TE this year- again, it's not like I acquired him because I thought he was terrible, right? The difference between me and a lot of people in this thread is that I don't think finishing as the #1 TE is a lock or Finley's birthright or anything silly like that, and I'm also a lot more realistic about what, exactly, "#1 TE" really means. 1350/15 are not #1 TE numbers, those are greatest TE to ever play the game of football numbers. A simple 1100/8 is a much more realistic "#1 TE" projection.

You are focusing on the highest projection posted, I'm not. Yes, he will not get 1300 yds, but we do agree he has a chance to end up #1 TE. As a Finley owner in 5 dynasty leagues, the optimism here is scaring me a little. We need some Finley haters to come on board to even this a little.

What do Finley haters have to hate on? He's in a great situation and appears to be legitimately talented(at least to me). Reading this thread, I guess the real question has to do with value. He's getting ranked pretty consistently between TE3-TE7 in the rankings and most people would probably agree with that range. Seeing how many people are high on him, is he worth reaching for in your draft and paying the premium? I think he has the upside to finish as the top TE this season, but this isn't 2003 where having the top TE gave you a big positional advantage against your peers. I think it's just better to draft for value here, cause drafting the top ranked TE the last couple years probably wasn't a huge advantage, and probably won't be this year either. He could offer value if you're drafting with players who prefer more established players and, personally, I'd take him any time after Gates and Clark are off the board if I wanted an elite tight end.80 catches for 975 yards and 9 touchdowns.

A few things Finley haters would say1. Unproven, haven't finished in top-102. Injury-prone3. Packers spread the ball around too much4. over-hyped and will point to Olsen last year as an example on what he can end up.5. No upside in his ADP as he is drafted anywhere from TE3-TE6.

 

[Hjelle9]

Why would we be surprised if he outproduces guys like Tony Gonzalez(he didn't even have a respectable QB to get him the ball in his prime) and Shannon Sharpe who were on run-first teams and had very little in common with the utilization methods employed by the Packers with JF.

Because guys like Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe were the most productive receiving TEs that the National Football league has ever seen. You think Jermichael Finley is the first TE to ever play in a pass-first offense? A huge reason why Gonzo put up those sick numbers is because his primary competition for receptions was Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton, and Marc Boerigter- hardly Jennings/Driver/Jones/Nelson, here. Also, Gonzo had one of the top 3 QBs in the entire league slinging him the ball. Trent Green was a stud. He was a perennial 4,000 yard passer with Kennison as his WR1.

Yea I suppose he did have Green for several years and he put up solid fantasy numbers at the time but the point still stands that they never had the redzone opportunities as Green never went over 27 TD passes in a year which again is no surprise with the fantasy rushers taking all the glory in that era. We are now in an era where the right team might just show up with a QB throwing for 50 TDs and the primary target in the offense accumulating 23 TDs. I think it's silly not to be at least somewhat prepared for unparalleled gaudy numbers to appear when the right elements are in place, especially potent and highly competent/complex passing elements. Aaron Rodgers will have nothing but improvements, and in some cases(the offensive line being stabilized), huge improvements. It stands to reason his 30 passing TDs(and 4400 yds) will have nowhere to go but up with better protection, reduced running statistics expected(316, 5tds - should be more like 150, 2tds), and a full year with Finley featured. The offensive numbers are not going down and if Drew Brees and Sean Paytons playbook can accumulate 5,000 yards with their weapons, there's no reason Rodger's and McCarthy can't progress close to the same with their weapons. I mean James Jones and Jordy Nelson are probably the best 3rd and 4th WR combo in the league but very rarely are they ever more than a 3rd or 4th read in the Packers offense. So so so many of James Jones contributions are on plays where Rodgers scrambles from the pocket and finds Jones late on the play in a hole deep in the zones often played against the Packers. Jordy Nelson at WR4 is actually more of a threat to Finley's production as the Packers actually draw up plays specifically for him in the redzone when they get single coverage(oftentimes a 3rd or 4th CB that Nelson has significant size on) on him as the single split out opposite a bunch or just a 3/4 wide spread on the opposite side. One little wiggle and broken arm tackle and he's in. The point is they are afterthoughts almost exclusively except for the occasional opportunities that Nelson has drawn up for him as a primary option when isolated favorably on the outside(usually in the redzone). The Packers will empasize Finley early and often attempting to force either double coverage on Finley to open up 1 on 1 opportunities(esp. slants or quick seams) for either Jennings, Driver, or Jones, or to force defenses into nickel and dime personnel allowing Ryan Grant to start busting off runs. McCarthy loves to attack with Grant and then aggressive deep playaction real early if he can coax the defense out of their base package. They seriously throw the ball very deep all the time early in the game if they have had any running success(sometimes even if they dont), oftentimes with little hope of a completion. It's just an aggressive action that keeps the defense from blanketing with short zones and locking down on the short to intermediate passing game that McCarthy loves to feature the majority of the game given its proclivity to keep turnover margins significantly positive(McCarthy is obsessed with t.o. margin) and the fact it maximizes each of our recievers exceptional ability to run like hell after the catch. There's no safer/easier target to hit and with Rodgers accuracy/Finleys great hands, long arms, huge frame and strength with the ball, body control, and exceptional ability to make mid-air adjustments that there's little worry in any Packer's mind a pass to Finley(even on rather deep routes) will result in a turnover.Given the way the Packers constantly use motion(particularly with Finley to see how they intend to defend Finley) to identify mismatches and Aaron Rodgers impressive ability to communicate pre snap with his recievers(oftentimes the majority of the offense will believe the play is still a run and Rodgers has made subtle communication with a reciever as they lined up to run a quick slant or out) and/or check correctly to better plays it's almost impossible to lock down the Packers passing system for an entire game. This is why even when we were sending several defensive ends to the pro bowl based on their single game statistics vs. us throughout the year and when floundering a bit early in games, Rodgers always ended games with an extremely relevant fantasy performance. The depth and deception characterizing the G.B. playbook runs through Finleys versatility and ability to dominate nearly any matchup than through any other players skillset. Driver and Jennings are not physically imposing enough WRs to be the primary focal point of the offense that forces defensive adjustment regularly enough(esp given Driver was declining last year, dropped a lot of passes, and now had double knee scopes). Same goes for Grant and the running game. This is a feature Gonzalez and Sharpe and the tight ends of yesterday did not relate to(really no TE can relate to). Even guys like Gates and Clark, while quite imposing(and perhaps could have been if the coaches wanted to use them as such), were not necessarily the force causing defensive discomfort and adjustment to build the offense around. This is the unique situation for Finley this year and, as such, his ceiling is unprecedented.

 

[Hjelle9]

A few things Finley haters would say1. Unproven, haven't finished in top-102. Injury-prone3. Packers spread the ball around too much4. over-hyped and will point to Olsen last year as an example on what he can end up.5. No upside in his ADP as he is drafted anywhere from TE3-TE6.

Injury is the only question. Olsen is really not the specimen Finley is, nor was he even close to being in a similar situation with cutler giving the ball away at random and forcing it to Olsen rather than burning defenses for paying to much attention to him. His upside is higher than anyone can truly believe b/c no one has truly been used like this in this type of situation as a tight end.

 

[Creed Bratton]

Why would we be surprised if he outproduces guys like Tony Gonzalez(he didn't even have a respectable QB to get him the ball in his prime) and Shannon Sharpe who were on run-first teams and had very little in common with the utilization methods employed by the Packers with JF. I dont think anyone fully appreciates McCarthy's overwhelming tendency to call pass plays inside the 10 and even 5 yard lines. It's never going to stop most likely and at least not until the offensive line personnel is almost completely turned over from our aging and less than mauling veteran offensive lineman. This was not the case with Gonzalez or Sharpe. They would recieve play action looks after Priest Holmes and Clinton Portis had rushed for 3 scores on their way to fantasy supremacy behind their respective prominent O-lines. We already know he was the 4th most targeted tight end in the redzone despite everything working against him last year and that's only going to dramatically increase this season as the primary tight end and target in a spread offense with enough weapons and with a top 5 QB(aren't we expecting even more maturation this year?) capable of exploiting each weapon for a large gain if the defense is cheating towards a particular player, and a nice play action passing game set up by Ryan Grant's ability to be a consistent threat. Does anyone really disagree he's going to AT LEAST eat up Donald Lee's targets/production(will clearly exceed his production on the # of targets as Lee was so horrible last year) and have at least 125 targets? He's the biggest physical mismatch in the NFL on one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league. It's really a perfect storm. Doesnt hurt to be able to fling it around against all the terrible secondaries and coverage linebackers in the NFC North. Rodgers had 5 rushing TDs and all those yards largely in part because he learned early and often(week 4 at the metrodome on 4th and goal really stands out) he can't trust Donald Lee to catch a checkdown(Rodgers had two of his seasons highest rushing attempts: (7 and 5) in weeks that Finley was sidelined and the highest total(8) in a week 3 blowout of the Rams in which Finley was still being under-utilized and the Rams were just desperately dropping back in blanket coverage after being burned early and often). That won't be the case this year and I suspect based on commentary from McCarthy he's made it clear he prefers Rodgers to throw the ball to the weapons he and Ted have assembled and coached up so well rather than risking their crown jewel. Trust me, McCarthy won't allow Rodgers to appear 2nd on the rushing attempts list ahead of Vince Young and 23 attemps ahead of Romo. Those are going to be quicker more fluent pass plays intended to keep the offense on schedule. The majority will logically funnel throgh Finely. Every aspect that's evolving moving into 2010 just equals more work for Finley.

I'm not sure you quite got the point I was trying to make. When I referenced 2003, it wasn't because I wasn't trying to say that Finley couldn't match or outproduce Tony Gonzalez or Shannon Sharpe. That's completely irrelevant. I was pointing out that it's basically impossible for him to dominate the tight end position in comparison to other tight ends this year. Because that's what Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe did in their time. As good as Finley might be, there is ZERO chance he offers as much value as Tony Gonzalez that season. Gonzalez scored DOUBLE the fantasy points of the TE4. Finley isn't going to outscore Jason Witten and Antonio Gates combined. Sure, Finley could be TE1 this year, but grabbing the guy who finishes as TE3 probably isn't going to make a huge difference this year. And by the way, Finley is not the biggest physical mismatch in the NFL at tight end. Amongst productive tight ends, it's gotta be Vernon Davis.

 

[SSOG]

Injury is the only question. Olsen is really not the specimen Finley is, nor was he even close to being in a similar situation with cutler giving the ball away at random and forcing it to Olsen rather than burning defenses for paying to much attention to him. His upside is higher than anyone can truly believe b/c no one has truly been used like this in this type of situation as a tight end.

Well, let's put it this way- if you're really buying your own projections, you should agree that you wouldn't hesitate to take Jermichael Finley with a top-3 draft pick. I mean, his VBD if he put up a 240 fantasy point season would be off the charts. Last year, 1375/15 would have ranked him 3rd in VBD behind only Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. Hell, forgetting entirely about VBD for a second, it would have ranked him 5th in total points (not counting QBs), behind only the "big 4" RBs (CJ3, ADP, MJD, Rice). So, at the very least, Finley should be worth a top-5 draft pick.So I've got a question for you. Point blank- would you draft Jermichael Finley in the top half of the first round? Assume you knew for a fact that someone at the 1/2 turn was going to snatch him up if you didn't. If you had the #5 overall draft pick, would you spend it on Jermichael Finley next year? Do you really believe your own projections?

 

[Creed Bratton]

Why would we be surprised if he outproduces guys like Tony Gonzalez(he didn't even have a respectable QB to get him the ball in his prime) and Shannon Sharpe who were on run-first teams and had very little in common with the utilization methods employed by the Packers with JF.

Because guys like Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe were the most productive receiving TEs that the National Football league has ever seen. You think Jermichael Finley is the first TE to ever play in a pass-first offense? A huge reason why Gonzo put up those sick numbers is because his primary competition for receptions was Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton, and Marc Boerigter- hardly Jennings/Driver/Jones/Nelson, here. Also, Gonzo had one of the top 3 QBs in the entire league slinging him the ball. Trent Green was a stud. He was a perennial 4,000 yard passer with Kennison as his WR1.

Yea I suppose he did have Green for several years and he put up solid fantasy numbers at the time but the point still stands that they never had the redzone opportunities as Green never went over 27 TD passes in a year which again is no surprise with the fantasy rushers taking all the glory in that era. We are now in an era where the right team might just show up with a QB throwing for 50 TDs and the primary target in the offense accumulating 23 TDs. I think it's silly not to be at least somewhat prepared for unparalleled gaudy numbers to appear when the right elements are in place, especially potent and highly competent/complex passing elements. Aaron Rodgers will have nothing but improvements, and in some cases(the offensive line being stabilized), huge improvements. It stands to reason his 30 passing TDs(and 4400 yds) will have nowhere to go but up with better protection, reduced running statistics expected(316, 5tds - should be more like 150, 2tds), and a full year with Finley featured. The offensive numbers are not going down and if Drew Brees and Sean Paytons playbook can accumulate 5,000 yards with their weapons, there's no reason Rodger's and McCarthy can't progress close to the same with their weapons. I mean James Jones and Jordy Nelson are probably the best 3rd and 4th WR combo in the league but very rarely are they ever more than a 3rd or 4th read in the Packers offense. So so so many of James Jones contributions are on plays where Rodgers scrambles from the pocket and finds Jones late on the play in a hole deep in the zones often played against the Packers. Jordy Nelson at WR4 is actually more of a threat to Finley's production as the Packers actually draw up plays specifically for him in the redzone when they get single coverage(oftentimes a 3rd or 4th CB that Nelson has significant size on) on him as the single split out opposite a bunch or just a 3/4 wide spread on the opposite side. One little wiggle and broken arm tackle and he's in. The point is they are afterthoughts almost exclusively except for the occasional opportunities that Nelson has drawn up for him as a primary option when isolated favorably on the outside(usually in the redzone). The Packers will empasize Finley early and often attempting to force either double coverage on Finley to open up 1 on 1 opportunities(esp. slants or quick seams) for either Jennings, Driver, or Jones, or to force defenses into nickel and dime personnel allowing Ryan Grant to start busting off runs. McCarthy loves to attack with Grant and then aggressive deep playaction real early if he can coax the defense out of their base package. They seriously throw the ball very deep all the time early in the game if they have had any running success(sometimes even if they dont), oftentimes with little hope of a completion. It's just an aggressive action that keeps the defense from blanketing with short zones and locking down on the short to intermediate passing game that McCarthy loves to feature the majority of the game given its proclivity to keep turnover margins significantly positive(McCarthy is obsessed with t.o. margin) and the fact it maximizes each of our recievers exceptional ability to run like hell after the catch. There's no safer/easier target to hit and with Rodgers accuracy/Finleys great hands, long arms, huge frame and strength with the ball, body control, and exceptional ability to make mid-air adjustments that there's little worry in any Packer's mind a pass to Finley(even on rather deep routes) will result in a turnover.Given the way the Packers constantly use motion(particularly with Finley to see how they intend to defend Finley) to identify mismatches and Aaron Rodgers impressive ability to communicate pre snap with his recievers(oftentimes the majority of the offense will believe the play is still a run and Rodgers has made subtle communication with a reciever as they lined up to run a quick slant or out) and/or check correctly to better plays it's almost impossible to lock down the Packers passing system for an entire game. This is why even when we were sending several defensive ends to the pro bowl based on their single game statistics vs. us throughout the year and when floundering a bit early in games, Rodgers always ended games with an extremely relevant fantasy performance. The depth and deception characterizing the G.B. playbook runs through Finleys versatility and ability to dominate nearly any matchup than through any other players skillset. Driver and Jennings are not physically imposing enough WRs to be the primary focal point of the offense that forces defensive adjustment regularly enough(esp given Driver was declining last year, dropped a lot of passes, and now had double knee scopes). Same goes for Grant and the running game. This is a feature Gonzalez and Sharpe and the tight ends of yesterday did not relate to(really no TE can relate to). Even guys like Gates and Clark, while quite imposing(and perhaps could have been if the coaches wanted to use them as such), were not necessarily the force causing defensive discomfort and adjustment to build the offense around. This is the unique situation for Finley this year and, as such, his ceiling is unprecedented.

Look, I share your enthusiasm for Finley. I really do. I drafted him in my redraft league last season to snickers and people shaking their heads. I think he's a great talent and is gonna do really well this year. Where we differ is in what that means for your fantasy team.And can we please stop saying he's better than Tony Gonzalez? Seriously. Tony Gonzalez was 32 years old when he put up 95+ catches, 1000+ yards, and 10 touchdowns on a terrible offense with no running game and Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard, and Brodie Croyle throwing him the ball. TYLER THIGPEN. Tony Gonzalez could end his career with more catches than every single player in the history of the NFL besides Jerry Rice. He was putting up dominant hall of fame numbers with good QBs, bad QBs, good running games, bad running games, and while frequently drawing the other team's top defensive backs because of the lack of other good receivers. He didn't cause defensive discomfort? He was drawing Asomugha and Champ Bailey during their best seasons to follow him around from tearing their defense apart. And that is the end of my rant.

 

[Hjelle9]

So I've got a question for you. Point blank- would you draft Jermichael Finley in the top half of the first round? Assume you knew for a fact that someone at the 1/2 turn was going to snatch him up if you didn't. If you had the #5 overall draft pick, would you spend it on Jermichael Finley next year? Do you really believe your own projections?

No. How would I get Rodgers? Gotta fill 3 WRs too so of course I need to make value based decisions.

 

[Creed Bratton]

So I've got a question for you. Point blank- would you draft Jermichael Finley in the top half of the first round? Assume you knew for a fact that someone at the 1/2 turn was going to snatch him up if you didn't. If you had the #5 overall draft pick, would you spend it on Jermichael Finley next year? Do you really believe your own projections?

No. How would I get Rodgers? Gotta fill 3 WRs too so of course I need to make value based decisions.

According to SSOG's scenario, Fiinley's gone by the second round. The value based decision on your projections would mean you should take him at that spot.

 

[TaxMan]

So I've got a question for you. Point blank- would you draft Jermichael Finley in the top half of the first round? Assume you knew for a fact that someone at the 1/2 turn was going to snatch him up if you didn't. If you had the #5 overall draft pick, would you spend it on Jermichael Finley next year? Do you really believe your own projections?

No. How would I get Rodgers? Gotta fill 3 WRs too so of course I need to make value based decisions.

According to SSOG's scenario, Fiinley's gone by the second round. The value based decision on your projections would mean you should take him at that spot.

In 1.5 PPR TE leagues, some guys were taking Witten 1.04 - 1.06 last year. This year, i saw Finley taken as high as 1.08-1.10 in that same format.

 

[SSOG]

So I've got a question for you. Point blank- would you draft Jermichael Finley in the top half of the first round? Assume you knew for a fact that someone at the 1/2 turn was going to snatch him up if you didn't. If you had the #5 overall draft pick, would you spend it on Jermichael Finley next year? Do you really believe your own projections?

No. How would I get Rodgers? Gotta fill 3 WRs too so of course I need to make value based decisions.

If you really thought Finley was going to get 1375/15, then the value-based decision would be to draft him with the #1 overall draft pick.Seriously, that's 237.5 fantasy points. The #1 WR last year scored 212 fantasy points. You're talking about a TE who outscored the best WR in the entire league by 25 points here! Playing at TE! In TE-required leagues, he should be the #1 pick off the board with those numbers. Remember when Yahoo screwed up and listed Marques Colston as a TE, how much chaos that caused around here because of the crushing advantage he gave the teams that owned him? This would be that to the Nth degree. Even in non-TE required leagues, Finley should still be a sure-fire lock for the first round with those numbers- again, you have him projected to outscore the best WR in the entire NFL by a huge margin!

Over the last 10 years in non-PPR, 237.5 fantasy points would have ranked Finley 2nd, 1st, 4th, 4th, 5th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in season-ending VBD. In every single one of the past 10 years, those numbers from a TE would have commanded a top-5 draft pick. In 6 of the 10 years, those numbers would have justified a top-3 draft pick, and in 4 of the last 10 years, those numbers would have justified a top-2 draft pick. If you want to talk about drafting for value, then getting uberstud WR1 production out of a position that generally produces WR3-level production is pretty much the definition of value. Why on earth would you draft a WR over a 238-point TE when the WR is going to (a) score less and (b) produce a higher opportunity cost to start? Why on earth would you draft a QB over a TE when the only QBs in the past decade who would have topped Finley's VBD total were Peyton Manning (when he set the TD record in 2004), Daunte Culpepper (when he set the yards from scrimmage record in 2004), and Tom Brady (when he set the TD record in 2007)? Unless you're projecting Aaron Rodgers to break every passing record at the same time that Finley breaks every receiving record, it'd be insane to take Rogers over Finley. I mean, in Drew Brees' 5069 yard season, he could have passed for 5700 yards and Finley still would have generated more VBD.

The fact that you'd hesitate for even the barest second before drafting Jermichael Finley with a top-5 draft pick means even you don't believe what you're selling. If I honestly believed that a TE was going to put up 238 fantasy points, I would draft him #1 overall if that's what it took to secure him. The only players who could possibly be more valuable than a 1350/15 TE would be a 4500/50 QB or a 2000/20 RB.

In 1.5 PPR TE leagues, some guys were taking Witten 1.04 - 1.06 last year. This year, i saw Finley taken as high as 1.08-1.10 in that same format.

I'm not even talking about 1.5 PPR leagues. I'm talking about straight-up 0 PPR leagues. Hell, even in a 0-PPR, no TE Required league (pretty much the least favorable league possible for TEs), 1350/15 would still make Finley worth a top-10 draft pick.

 

[PhantomJB]

So I've got a question for you. Point blank- would you draft Jermichael Finley in the top half of the first round? Assume you knew for a fact that someone at the 1/2 turn was going to snatch him up if you didn't. If you had the #5 overall draft pick, would you spend it on Jermichael Finley next year? Do you really believe your own projections?

No. How would I get Rodgers? Gotta fill 3 WRs too so of course I need to make value based decisions.

If you really thought Finley was going to get 1375/15, then the value-based decision would be to draft him with the #1 overall draft pick.Seriously, that's 237.5 fantasy points. The #1 WR last year scored 212 fantasy points. You're talking about a TE who outscored the best WR in the entire league by 25 points here! Playing at TE! In TE-required leagues, he should be the #1 pick off the board with those numbers. Remember when Yahoo screwed up and listed Marques Colston as a TE, how much chaos that caused around here because of the crushing advantage he gave the teams that owned him? This would be that to the Nth degree. Even in non-TE required leagues, Finley should still be a sure-fire lock for the first round with those numbers- again, you have him projected to outscore the best WR in the entire NFL by a huge margin!

Over the last 10 years in non-PPR, 237.5 fantasy points would have ranked Finley 2nd, 1st, 4th, 4th, 5th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in season-ending VBD. In every single one of the past 10 years, those numbers from a TE would have commanded a top-5 draft pick. In 6 of the 10 years, those numbers would have justified a top-3 draft pick, and in 4 of the last 10 years, those numbers would have justified a top-2 draft pick. If you want to talk about drafting for value, then getting uberstud WR1 production out of a position that generally produces WR3-level production is pretty much the definition of value. Why on earth would you draft a WR over a 238-point TE when the WR is going to (a) score less and (b) produce a higher opportunity cost to start? Why on earth would you draft a QB over a TE when the only QBs in the past decade who would have topped Finley's VBD total were Peyton Manning (when he set the TD record in 2004), Daunte Culpepper (when he set the yards from scrimmage record in 2004), and Tom Brady (when he set the TD record in 2007)? Unless you're projecting Aaron Rodgers to break every passing record at the same time that Finley breaks every receiving record, it'd be insane to take Rogers over Finley. I mean, in Drew Brees' 5069 yard season, he could have passed for 5700 yards and Finley still would have generated more VBD.

The fact that you'd hesitate for even the barest second before drafting Jermichael Finley with a top-5 draft pick means even you don't believe what you're selling. If I honestly believed that a TE was going to put up 238 fantasy points, I would draft him #1 overall if that's what it took to secure him. The only players who could possibly be more valuable than a 1350/15 TE would be a 4500/50 QB or a 2000/20 RB.

In 1.5 PPR TE leagues, some guys were taking Witten 1.04 - 1.06 last year. This year, i saw Finley taken as high as 1.08-1.10 in that same format.

I'm not even talking about 1.5 PPR leagues. I'm talking about straight-up 0 PPR leagues. Hell, even in a 0-PPR, no TE Required league (pretty much the least favorable league possible for TEs), 1350/15 would still make Finley worth a top-10 draft pick.

Agree entirely. If a someone isn't willing to back up his projection by acting on the obvious implications, it takes away from the integrity of the thread and just looks like stirring up controversy.

 

[smackdaddies]

Why would we be surprised if he outproduces guys like Tony Gonzalez(he didn't even have a respectable QB to get him the ball in his prime) and Shannon Sharpe who were on run-first teams and had very little in common with the utilization methods employed by the Packers with JF.

Because guys like Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe were the most productive receiving TEs that the National Football league has ever seen. You think Jermichael Finley is the first TE to ever play in a pass-first offense? A huge reason why Gonzo put up those sick numbers is because his primary competition for receptions was Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton, and Marc Boerigter- hardly Jennings/Driver/Jones/Nelson, here. Also, Gonzo had one of the top 3 QBs in the entire league slinging him the ball. Trent Green was a stud. He was a perennial 4,000 yard passer with Kennison as his WR1.

Yea I suppose he did have Green for several years and he put up solid fantasy numbers at the time but the point still stands that they never had the redzone opportunities as Green never went over 27 TD passes in a year which again is no surprise with the fantasy rushers taking all the glory in that era. We are now in an era where the right team might just show up with a QB throwing for 50 TDs and the primary target in the offense accumulating 23 TDs. I think it's silly not to be at least somewhat prepared for unparalleled gaudy numbers to appear when the right elements are in place, especially potent and highly competent/complex passing elements.

Aaron Rodgers will have nothing but improvements, and in some cases(the offensive line being stabilized), huge improvements. It stands to reason his 30 passing TDs(and 4400 yds) will have nowhere to go but up with better protection, reduced running statistics expected(316, 5tds - should be more like 150, 2tds), and a full year with Finley featured. The offensive numbers are not going down and if Drew Brees and Sean Paytons playbook can accumulate 5,000 yards with their weapons, there's no reason Rodger's and McCarthy can't progress close to the same with their weapons. I mean James Jones and Jordy Nelson are probably the best 3rd and 4th WR combo in the league but very rarely are they ever more than a 3rd or 4th read in the Packers offense. So so so many of James Jones contributions are on plays where Rodgers scrambles from the pocket and finds Jones late on the play in a hole deep in the zones often played against the Packers. Jordy Nelson at WR4 is actually more of a threat to Finley's production as the Packers actually draw up plays specifically for him in the redzone when they get single coverage(oftentimes a 3rd or 4th CB that Nelson has significant size on) on him as the single split out opposite a bunch or just a 3/4 wide spread on the opposite side. One little wiggle and broken arm tackle and he's in.

The point is they are afterthoughts almost exclusively except for the occasional opportunities that Nelson has drawn up for him as a primary option when isolated favorably on the outside(usually in the redzone). The Packers will empasize Finley early and often attempting to force either double coverage on Finley to open up 1 on 1 opportunities(esp. slants or quick seams) for either Jennings, Driver, or Jones, or to force defenses into nickel and dime personnel allowing Ryan Grant to start busting off runs. McCarthy loves to attack with Grant and then aggressive deep playaction real early if he can coax the defense out of their base package. They seriously throw the ball very deep all the time early in the game if they have had any running success(sometimes even if they dont), oftentimes with little hope of a completion. It's just an aggressive action that keeps the defense from blanketing with short zones and locking down on the short to intermediate passing game that McCarthy loves to feature the majority of the game given its proclivity to keep turnover margins significantly positive(McCarthy is obsessed with t.o. margin) and the fact it maximizes each of our recievers exceptional ability to run like hell after the catch. There's no safer/easier target to hit and with Rodgers accuracy/Finleys great hands, long arms, huge frame and strength with the ball, body control, and exceptional ability to make mid-air adjustments that there's little worry in any Packer's mind a pass to Finley(even on rather deep routes) will result in a turnover.

Given the way the Packers constantly use motion(particularly with Finley to see how they intend to defend Finley) to identify mismatches and Aaron Rodgers impressive ability to communicate pre snap with his recievers(oftentimes the majority of the offense will believe the play is still a run and Rodgers has made subtle communication with a reciever as they lined up to run a quick slant or out) and/or check correctly to better plays it's almost impossible to lock down the Packers passing system for an entire game. This is why even when we were sending several defensive ends to the pro bowl based on their single game statistics vs. us throughout the year and when floundering a bit early in games, Rodgers always ended games with an extremely relevant fantasy performance. The depth and deception characterizing the G.B. playbook runs through Finleys versatility and ability to dominate nearly any matchup than through any other players skillset. Driver and Jennings are not physically imposing enough WRs to be the primary focal point of the offense that forces defensive adjustment regularly enough(esp given Driver was declining last year, dropped a lot of passes, and now had double knee scopes). Same goes for Grant and the running game. This is a feature Gonzalez and Sharpe and the tight ends of yesterday did not relate to(really no TE can relate to). Even guys like Gates and Clark, while quite imposing(and perhaps could have been if the coaches wanted to use them as such), were not necessarily the force causing defensive discomfort and adjustment to build the offense around. This is the unique situation for Finley this year and, as such, his ceiling is unprecedented.

Look, I share your enthusiasm for Finley. I really do. I drafted him in my redraft league last season to snickers and people shaking their heads. I think he's a great talent and is gonna do really well this year. Where we differ is in what that means for your fantasy team.And can we please stop saying he's better than Tony Gonzalez? Seriously. Tony Gonzalez was 32 years old when he put up 95+ catches, 1000+ yards, and 10 touchdowns on a terrible offense with no running game and Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard, and Brodie Croyle throwing him the ball. TYLER THIGPEN. Tony Gonzalez could end his career with more catches than every single player in the history of the NFL besides Jerry Rice. He was putting up dominant hall of fame numbers with good QBs, bad QBs, good running games, bad running games, and while frequently drawing the other team's top defensive backs because of the lack of other good receivers. He didn't cause defensive discomfort? He was drawing Asomugha and Champ Bailey during their best seasons to follow him around from tearing their defense apart. And that is the end of my rant.

As a huge JFin and Packer Fan, I agree completely. Man Crushes are fine, but lets step away from the crack pipe

 

[Maroney=Speed]

So I've got a question for you. Point blank- would you draft Jermichael Finley in the top half of the first round? Assume you knew for a fact that someone at the 1/2 turn was going to snatch him up if you didn't. If you had the #5 overall draft pick, would you spend it on Jermichael Finley next year? Do you really believe your own projections?

No. How would I get Rodgers? Gotta fill 3 WRs too so of course I need to make value based decisions.

According to SSOG's scenario, Fiinley's gone by the second round. The value based decision on your projections would mean you should take him at that spot.

In 1.5 PPR TE leagues, some guys were taking Witten 1.04 - 1.06 last year. This year, i saw Finley taken as high as 1.08-1.10 in that same format.

Please sign me up for those Leagues. Anyone taking a TE that high even IF it's 1.5 PPR for TE's have no Clue.

 

[purestrength]

So should I draft Finley ahead of Dallas Clark in 1 or 1.5 PPR formats this season?

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

this is one of those threads that gets bumped after every game all year rite

 

[Redmen62]

this is one of those threads that gets bumped after every game all year rite

The thing is, 95% of people in the thread have roughly the same opinion of Finley. There's really not that much of a controversy. It's just that the 5% who don't understand statistics are, unfortunately, driving the majority of the discussion.

 

[Hjelle9]

This is the Marques Colston situation times two. He barely lines up at tight end. The ENTIRE offense is going to run through him. It's so rare for a TE. He's sprinting across the formation on so many plays just to identifty his matchup and hes even running the same kind of option routes from the flanker position Driver used to dominate to constantly move the chains for us. He's already showing such polish on his route running and will be attending Larry Fitzgerald's camp that's run by Chris Carter. His maturity issues are over. This is your one chance to get the future Colston as a TE5 pick. I mean Colston was a 7th rounder out of Hofstra and Finley was a 3rd rounder out of Texas and he came out after his SOPHOMORE season. Seriously...did anyone see the catches he plucked in the endzone on the 1 on 1 fade/jumpball routes vs Baltimore, Pittsburgh(notice the opportunity to pull a Randy Moss type stiff arm to the back and push off but he doesnt even do so the slightest bit), and Arizona(one was like a 50 yard bomb on a slant and go as the split end and was interfered with)? Did anyone see the placement of those passes. It's friggen unstoppable. How many times did Finley make those types of catches in which there was also pass interference? It's unreal anyone thinks 10 touchdowns isn't going to happen as a mortal lock. Why would anyone think Mike McCarthy isn't going to call that ####in play over and over until someone can stop it because NO ONE has yet. Can the defenses single cover the quick hit WRs and not change personnel enough to allow for it to be easy on grant or rodgers rushing in while giving more than one defender to Finley? I don't think so. They have to take their chances on the isolation fade which is an absolute losing proposition against Rodgers and Finley. Give me him wherever I HAVE to take him. If your silly situation of the first round in a standard league did occur i'd have to really closely evaluate the scoring system to make sure passing on rodgers and guys like Johnson who could beat a 1375/15 was still advisable. No one has really argued against him receiving at least 125 targets in this offense and why are we to believe if he does reach the 125-150 target range he isn't going to turn in the numbers im suggesting. I think it's even more ludicrous to downplay how often he's going to get thrown the ball in the redzone and how often he's likely to covert those targets. Hes going to receive like 20-35 redzone targets. I'll admit im overestimating if someone can persuade me to believe he won't be targeted this often in McCarthy's offense. If he is, which I really believe he will, he's a total lock to go over 1,000 and 10. Lets all pray for no ACL tears so we can find out.

 

[TaxMan]

So should I draft Finley ahead of Dallas Clark in 1 or 1.5 PPR formats this season?

if you want to play it safe and go with a "safer" option, go Clark. If you are an aggressive player and playing to win, go Finley. Cant go wrong with either, just a matter of style.

 

[Creed Bratton]

This is the Marques Colston situation times two. He barely lines up at tight end. The ENTIRE offense is going to run through him. It's so rare for a TE. He's sprinting across the formation on so many plays just to identifty his matchup and hes even running the same kind of option routes from the flanker position Driver used to dominate to constantly move the chains for us. He's already showing such polish on his route running and will be attending Larry Fitzgerald's camp that's run by Chris Carter. His maturity issues are over. This is your one chance to get the future Colston as a TE5 pick. I mean Colston was a 7th rounder out of Hofstra and Finley was a 3rd rounder out of Texas and he came out after his SOPHOMORE season. Seriously...did anyone see the catches he plucked in the endzone on the 1 on 1 fade/jumpball routes vs Baltimore, Pittsburgh(notice the opportunity to pull a Randy Moss type stiff arm to the back and push off but he doesnt even do so the slightest bit), and Arizona(one was like a 50 yard bomb on a slant and go as the split end and was interfered with)? Did anyone see the placement of those passes. It's friggen unstoppable. How many times did Finley make those types of catches in which there was also pass interference? It's unreal anyone thinks 10 touchdowns isn't going to happen as a mortal lock. Why would anyone think Mike McCarthy isn't going to call that ####in play over and over until someone can stop it because NO ONE has yet. Can the defenses single cover the quick hit WRs and not change personnel enough to allow for it to be easy on grant or rodgers rushing in while giving more than one defender to Finley? I don't think so. They have to take their chances on the isolation fade which is an absolute losing proposition against Rodgers and Finley. Give me him wherever I HAVE to take him. If your silly situation of the first round in a standard league did occur i'd have to really closely evaluate the scoring system to make sure passing on rodgers and guys like Johnson who could beat a 1375/15 was still advisable. No one has really argued against him receiving at least 125 targets in this offense and why are we to believe if he does reach the 125-150 target range he isn't going to turn in the numbers im suggesting. I think it's even more ludicrous to downplay how often he's going to get thrown the ball in the redzone and how often he's likely to covert those targets. Hes going to receive like 20-35 redzone targets. I'll admit im overestimating if someone can persuade me to believe he won't be targeted this often in McCarthy's offense. If he is, which I really believe he will, he's a total lock to go over 1,000 and 10. Lets all pray for no ACL tears so we can find out.

I think it's pretty easy to make the claim that Finley won't receive 125 targets next season. 125 targets is a LOT for a tight end and it virtually ends up never happening in an offense with good starting receivers like Green Bay. In the last six seasons, no tight end has ever gotten 125 targets when the starting receivers were getting even 100 targets each. The last two seasons, Jennings and Driver were each getting well over 110 targets per season. Even during Finley's hot stretch last season, he was already getting more targets than Driver. And Driver was still getting enough targets to get at least a 100 per season. And he certainly doesn't have 150 target upside unless Green Bay's receivers get decimated by injuries.

 

[Hjelle9]

5 tight ends got at least 125 targets last season. Dallas Clark had 132 and is used a lot like Finley only isn't near the specimen as him, has to deal with a truer #1 WR that the offense tends to run efficiently through, and has to deal with more redzone options, especially the runningbacks on draws from spread sets or quick passes/screens that isn't common for Grant and the Packers offense. It stands to reason he will perform to this Clark level at least and I have been making the case he is going to have unprecedented opportunities in the Packers offense as the only target with serious size, nevermind he's oozing with athleticism, speed, body-control, and hands as well. If you look at Driver's drpos and fumbles at the end of the year and his subsequent usage, then add in his double knee scopes in the offseason, and then think they aren't going to move away from him and towards the 6'5 23 year old entering his prime that has shown he doesn't even drop passes he's interfered with on, you're off base.

The way Finley was used in the most important game of the season shows you all you need to know about what he's ready to do this season. The Packers, this team with such incredible depth and recieving talent that it must be spread around to, chose to go out of their way to motion Finley to every spot on the field and run him on 50 yard slant and gos in the most important game of the season randomly. There's no way the Packers are interested in continuing to run an offfensive gameplan that has shown the ability to create massive and seeemingly unstoppable scoring runs. They probably will force feed Driver's declining and modest frame rather than throwing to the guy no one can cover. Not. Why do so many pepole seem so stuck in the old era of the tight end...things are changing right now and Finley has shown he can be the full hybrid on the biggest stage he's seen(1st rd. playoffs)? I wouldn't take Gonzalez or Sharpe or Gates to do what Finley does/will do this season for the Packers. It takes too unique a player, and I think he's the only one who can really do it completely the way Packers are trying with him.

 

[SSOG]

This is the Marques Colston situation times two. He barely lines up at tight end. The ENTIRE offense is going to run through him. It's so rare for a TE. He's sprinting across the formation on so many plays just to identifty his matchup and hes even running the same kind of option routes from the flanker position Driver used to dominate to constantly move the chains for us. He's already showing such polish on his route running and will be attending Larry Fitzgerald's camp that's run by Chris Carter. His maturity issues are over. This is your one chance to get the future Colston as a TE5 pick. I mean Colston was a 7th rounder out of Hofstra and Finley was a 3rd rounder out of Texas and he came out after his SOPHOMORE season. Seriously...did anyone see the catches he plucked in the endzone on the 1 on 1 fade/jumpball routes vs Baltimore, Pittsburgh(notice the opportunity to pull a Randy Moss type stiff arm to the back and push off but he doesnt even do so the slightest bit), and Arizona(one was like a 50 yard bomb on a slant and go as the split end and was interfered with)? Did anyone see the placement of those passes. It's friggen unstoppable. How many times did Finley make those types of catches in which there was also pass interference? It's unreal anyone thinks 10 touchdowns isn't going to happen as a mortal lock. Why would anyone think Mike McCarthy isn't going to call that ####in play over and over until someone can stop it because NO ONE has yet. Can the defenses single cover the quick hit WRs and not change personnel enough to allow for it to be easy on grant or rodgers rushing in while giving more than one defender to Finley? I don't think so. They have to take their chances on the isolation fade which is an absolute losing proposition against Rodgers and Finley. Give me him wherever I HAVE to take him. If your silly situation of the first round in a standard league did occur i'd have to really closely evaluate the scoring system to make sure passing on rodgers and guys like Johnson who could beat a 1375/15 was still advisable. No one has really argued against him receiving at least 125 targets in this offense and why are we to believe if he does reach the 125-150 target range he isn't going to turn in the numbers im suggesting. I think it's even more ludicrous to downplay how often he's going to get thrown the ball in the redzone and how often he's likely to covert those targets. Hes going to receive like 20-35 redzone targets. I'll admit im overestimating if someone can persuade me to believe he won't be targeted this often in McCarthy's offense. If he is, which I really believe he will, he's a total lock to go over 1,000 and 10. Lets all pray for no ACL tears so we can find out.

Once again, you're showing that you have a lot of knowledge of Green Bay and very little knowledge of the rest of the league. It's rare for a TE to play a lot of WR? Did you miss the part where I said that Dallas Clark plays so much WR that he argued he should have been franchised at the WR tender level? That Dallas Clark plays so much WR that Football Outsiders once put his statistics on the WR page instead of the TE page?No one can stop Finley in the red zone? Really? Then why did Finley post a lower TD:Target ratio in the red zone last season than Brent Celek, Greg Olson, Heath Miller, Visanthe Shiancoe, Kevin Boss, Dallas Clark, Fred Davis, Vernon Davis, Antonio Gates, John Carlson, Owen Daniels, Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, Ben Watson, Sgt. Kellen Winslow II, John Paul Foschi, Jason Witten, Zach Miller, Joey Haynos, THE OTHER Zach Miller, Will Heller, Brandon Pettigrew, Daniel Fells, Jeff King, Todd Yoder, Dante Rosario, Spencer Havner, Darnell Dinkins, Kellen Davis, Alge Crumpler, Antonio Becht, Chris Cooley, Ben Patrick, Ernest Wilford, Justin Peelle, Sean Ryan, Steve Heiden, Ben Hartsock, Jeff Dugan, Sean Nelson, Kory Sperry, Matt Spaeth, Kris Wilson, and Michael Gaines?

Finley is a mortal lock for 10 TDs on 125 targets? Then why would last season's TD-to-target ratio translate to just 8.8 TDs on 125 targets (7.8 TDs per 125 targets if we include his playoff performance)?

Andre Johnson can beat 1375/15? Then how come Johnson's career high in TDs is 9, and his career high in fantasy points is 212?

I'm not even going to bother with your target projections, your red zone target projections, or your point-per-target projections. As I said, it's clear that you watch a lot of Green Bay Packers football and probably spend a lot of time following Green Bay fan sites and have accumulated a massive amount of knowledge about the Green Bay Packers. It's equally clear to me that you haven't developed the slightest bit of context in which to base that knowledge, which has apparently lead to rampant enthusiasm completely and totally untempered by the realities of the NFL. Knowledge in a vacuum is a dangerous thing, and you've got this wealth of information without a single baseline to compare it to, resulting in a lot of outlandish, borderline-impossible expectations. You're pretty much the definition of a homer at this point, embodying both the positive connotations (a burning need to take in and synthesize every single scrap of information surrounding your favorite team and regurgitate it all on a moment's notice) and the negative connotations (that pesky little "total disconnect from reality" thing).

 

[Hjelle9]

This is the Marques Colston situation times two. He barely lines up at tight end. The ENTIRE offense is going to run through him. It's so rare for a TE. He's sprinting across the formation on so many plays just to identifty his matchup and hes even running the same kind of option routes from the flanker position Driver used to dominate to constantly move the chains for us. He's already showing such polish on his route running and will be attending Larry Fitzgerald's camp that's run by Chris Carter. His maturity issues are over. This is your one chance to get the future Colston as a TE5 pick. I mean Colston was a 7th rounder out of Hofstra and Finley was a 3rd rounder out of Texas and he came out after his SOPHOMORE season. Seriously...did anyone see the catches he plucked in the endzone on the 1 on 1 fade/jumpball routes vs Baltimore, Pittsburgh(notice the opportunity to pull a Randy Moss type stiff arm to the back and push off but he doesnt even do so the slightest bit), and Arizona(one was like a 50 yard bomb on a slant and go as the split end and was interfered with)? Did anyone see the placement of those passes. It's friggen unstoppable. How many times did Finley make those types of catches in which there was also pass interference? It's unreal anyone thinks 10 touchdowns isn't going to happen as a mortal lock. Why would anyone think Mike McCarthy isn't going to call that ####in play over and over until someone can stop it because NO ONE has yet. Can the defenses single cover the quick hit WRs and not change personnel enough to allow for it to be easy on grant or rodgers rushing in while giving more than one defender to Finley? I don't think so. They have to take their chances on the isolation fade which is an absolute losing proposition against Rodgers and Finley. Give me him wherever I HAVE to take him. If your silly situation of the first round in a standard league did occur i'd have to really closely evaluate the scoring system to make sure passing on rodgers and guys like Johnson who could beat a 1375/15 was still advisable. No one has really argued against him receiving at least 125 targets in this offense and why are we to believe if he does reach the 125-150 target range he isn't going to turn in the numbers im suggesting. I think it's even more ludicrous to downplay how often he's going to get thrown the ball in the redzone and how often he's likely to covert those targets. Hes going to receive like 20-35 redzone targets. I'll admit im overestimating if someone can persuade me to believe he won't be targeted this often in McCarthy's offense. If he is, which I really believe he will, he's a total lock to go over 1,000 and 10. Lets all pray for no ACL tears so we can find out.

Once again, you're showing that you have a lot of knowledge of Green Bay and very little knowledge of the rest of the league. It's rare for a TE to play a lot of WR? Did you miss the part where I said that Dallas Clark plays so much WR that he argued he should have been franchised at the WR tender level? That Dallas Clark plays so much WR that Football Outsiders once put his statistics on the WR page instead of the TE page?No one can stop Finley in the red zone? Really? Then why did Finley post a lower TD:Target ratio in the red zone last season than Brent Celek, Greg Olson, Heath Miller, Visanthe Shiancoe, Kevin Boss, Dallas Clark, Fred Davis, Vernon Davis, Antonio Gates, John Carlson, Owen Daniels, Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, Ben Watson, Sgt. Kellen Winslow II, John Paul Foschi, Jason Witten, Zach Miller, Joey Haynos, THE OTHER Zach Miller, Will Heller, Brandon Pettigrew, Daniel Fells, Jeff King, Todd Yoder, Dante Rosario, Spencer Havner, Darnell Dinkins, Kellen Davis, Alge Crumpler, Antonio Becht, Chris Cooley, Ben Patrick, Ernest Wilford, Justin Peelle, Sean Ryan, Steve Heiden, Ben Hartsock, Jeff Dugan, Sean Nelson, Kory Sperry, Matt Spaeth, Kris Wilson, and Michael Gaines?

Finley is a mortal lock for 10 TDs on 125 targets? Then why would last season's TD-to-target ratio translate to just 8.8 TDs on 125 targets (7.8 TDs per 125 targets if we include his playoff performance)?

Andre Johnson can beat 1375/15? Then how come Johnson's career high in TDs is 9, and his career high in fantasy points is 212?

I'm not even going to bother with your target projections, your red zone target projections, or your point-per-target projections. As I said, it's clear that you watch a lot of Green Bay Packers football and probably spend a lot of time following Green Bay fan sites and have accumulated a massive amount of knowledge about the Green Bay Packers. It's equally clear to me that you haven't developed the slightest bit of context in which to base that knowledge, which has apparently lead to rampant enthusiasm completely and totally untempered by the realities of the NFL. Knowledge in a vacuum is a dangerous thing, and you've got this wealth of information without a single baseline to compare it to, resulting in a lot of outlandish, borderline-impossible expectations. You're pretty much the definition of a homer at this point, embodying both the positive connotations (a burning need to take in and synthesize every single scrap of information surrounding your favorite team and regurgitate it all on a moment's notice) and the negative connotations (that pesky little "total disconnect from reality" thing).

I was wondering when homer would come out. I only commented because I felt I had the necessary information and familiarity to and I thought several pertitent facts regarding his situation were left out. Sorry. I'll try to find issues i know less about to post on and i'll try to be vague. I'll just rest my case at this point until week 6 of the season and we can all reevaluate/laugh at it.

 

[SSOG]

I was wondering when homer would come out. I'll just rest my case at this point until week 6 of the season and we can all reevaluate/laugh at it.

Homer is not necessarily an insult. In fact, homers are generally acknowledged as the most accurate, insightful people with respect to a specific team. They're an unbelievable resource, and you'll see countless threads throughout the year specifically asking for homers to chime in and offer their opinions. With that said, there is definitely a dark side of homerism- the whole loss-of-context with respect to the rest of the league. While homers can offer rare insight into their team of choice, they're not exactly the best source of unbiased comparisons between "their" players and the rest of the league. Which can result in them doing things that are truly and remarkably silly- such as calling a 2-year vet with 750 career receiving yards better than the greatest receiving TEs to ever grace the game of football, or suggesting that for some reason their team has created a conflux of situation and talent unique in the long and storied annals of the National Football League- that no team in history has ever been poised to create elite TE production quite like the 2010 Green Bay Packers are. From listening to your posts, you'd think that Jermichael Finley is the first talented TE to ever play with a quality QB in a pass-first offense.Edit to respond to your edit:

I only commented because I felt I had the necessary information and familiarity to and I thought several pertitent facts regarding his situation were left out. Sorry. I'll try to find issues i know less about to post on and i'll try to be vague.

You've already found an issue that you know very little about. You're talking about Jermichael Finley and his place in the NFL and in history. I'm not questioning your knowledge of Jermichael Finley at all, I'm simply questioning your knowledge of the rest of the NFL (projecting Finley to produce numbers that would rank him as the #1 WIDE RECEIVER in 4 of the past 5 years), as well as your knowledge of history (projecting Finley to break every single-season record any TE has ever set in NFL history all in the same season despite the fact that nobody has broken every single-season record in the same year since Hutson did it in 1942).

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

SSOG makes so many good points its not even funny.

The Finley love is insane, I owned him in several dyasnties and pedaled him in several. I dont think his value will ever be higher.

As far as Redraft goes he is overvalued and probably wont be on many of my team due to where you wil have to draft him to get him.

The dude is very talented

 

[redBourne]

SSOG makes so many good points its not even funny.

The Finley love is insane, I owned him in several dyasnties and pedaled him in several. I dont think his value will ever be higher.

As far as Redraft goes he is overvalued and probably wont be on many of my team due to where you wil have to draft him to get him.

The dude is very talented

I completely disagree. I thought they were quite humorous towards the end.

 

[Hjelle9]

You've already found an issue that you know very little about.

I have to admit that line was a pretty funny jab and I think I may have laughed out loud slightly. I understand my projections are aggressive but so much is in place for a large scale breakout. Too much for me to ignore.

 

[redBourne]

You've already found an issue that you know very little about.

I have to admit that line was a pretty funny jab and I think I may have laughed out loud slightly. I understand my projections are aggressive but so much is in place for a large scale breakout. Too much for me to ignore.

Either way, regardless of whether or not your projections prove to be accurate , this made for some interesting reading. Which is why I am here.

 

[SSOG]

You've already found an issue that you know very little about.

I have to admit that line was a pretty funny jab and I think I may have laughed out loud slightly. I understand my projections are aggressive but so much is in place for a large scale breakout. Too much for me to ignore.

As a Finley owner in dynasty, nothing could possibly make me happier than if you were right. If Finley winds up going off and putting up record numbers, I will be positively thrilled to come back and eat as much crow as you're looking to dish out.

 

[ratbast]

Won't D Coordinators respect him much more this year?

How many years did it take Dallas Clark to show his huge upside? Quite a few as he was perennially injured. That is the biggest problem with Finley.

 

[LawFitz]

You've already found an issue that you know very little about.

I have to admit that line was a pretty funny jab and I think I may have laughed out loud slightly. I understand my projections are aggressive but so much is in place for a large scale breakout. Too much for me to ignore.

Don't let your spirit be broken by logic, dude. While it's unlikely that Finely put ups the stats you project, I don't think it's as impossible as others are making out. I just look at what you project as his ceiling if everything breaks right, rather than his most likely projection. to you for going out on a limb.And BTW, I totally agree with your assertion that this is a very unique situation in terms of TE opportunities. While he may not break the all time records by 30% or whatever, I think that barring injury he will easily be in the competition for TE1 this year. There seems to be a perfect storm brewing in terms of variables that suggest a major breakout season for this guy:1. Aaron Rodgers is an uber stud.2. The WRs, while respectable enough to garner attention, are not legit RZ threats.3. While the OL improved, it still is suspect which means quick passes to the #1 option (Finley).4. This guy is basically a slot WR, not a TE, except he has the potential for higher YPC and TDs than Clark, the other slot WR in TE clothing.5. He is not only the #1 option between the 20s, but also at the goal line.6. We are living in a new era, where all passing stats have been and seemingly will continue to be inflated.While it's certainly important to look into the rear view mirror, it's even more important to look at the road ahead. And we may just be on a road with this guy that hasn't been charted before in terms of TE production.ETA: besides injury to Finley OR Rodgers, I also continue to be wary of Finley's off-field issues. Dude was missing meetings and curfew as recently as last year. All of these lofty projections assume he will be a model citizen and worker, which may be a major stretch.

 

[pretender]

So I've got a question for you. Point blank- would you draft Jermichael Finley in the top half of the first round? Assume you knew for a fact that someone at the 1/2 turn was going to snatch him up if you didn't. If you had the #5 overall draft pick, would you spend it on Jermichael Finley next year? Do you really believe your own projections?

No. How would I get Rodgers? Gotta fill 3 WRs too so of course I need to make value based decisions.

According to SSOG's scenario, Fiinley's gone by the second round. The value based decision on your projections would mean you should take him at that spot.

In 1.5 PPR TE leagues, some guys were taking Witten 1.04 - 1.06 last year. This year, i saw Finley taken as high as 1.08-1.10 in that same format.

Please sign me up for those Leagues. Anyone taking a TE that high even IF it's 1.5 PPR for TE's have no Clue.

I myself in a 12 team startup league with 1.5 PPR only (no other bonuses) drafted Jermichael Finley at 3.04 28th player drafted - Gates Clark Davis and Witten were drafted at 3.06 3.07 3.08 3.09. I know of a league where it is 1.5 for TE's and 6 pts for 39 yd TD reception or 8 for anything over that - .10 each receiving yard - bonus 7 pts for yds over 50 received 14 for 100 and 21 for 150.

TE's drafted in start-up league VD 1.13, D Clark 1.14 Gates 2.01 Witten 2.02 JF 2.08 (the owner who drafted JF at 2.08 would have drafted him higher if he would have had a 1st round pick! ( I would have taken JM at 1.13 if I had been in this league)

80 rec/921 yds/7 TD *(assuming no serious injuries to ARod or JM) - I think this is a conservative projection.

Top rankings of all players including IDP using last years stats in that league

1. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 419.15

2. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 414.20

3. Brees, Drew NOS QB 364.10

4. Clark, Dallas IND TE 357.70

5. Schaub, Matt HOU QB 357.10

6. Romo, Tony DAL QB 354.55

7. Manning, Peyton IND QB 351.50

8. Favre, Brett MIN QB 341.70

9. Brady, Tom NEP QB 340.90

10. Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB

11. Johnson, Andre HOU WR 336.90

12. Rivers, Philip SDC QB 330.20

13. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 324.40

14. Davis, Vernon SFO TE 315.50

15. Gates, Antonio SDC TE 309.90

16. Moss, Randy NEP WR 309.90

17. Austin, Miles DAL WR 308.60

18. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 308.00

19. Rice, Ray BAL RB 305.60

20. Wayne, Reggie IND WR 303.90

21. Welker, Wes NEP WR

22. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

23. McNabb, Donovan PHI QB

24. Marshall, Brandon DEN WR

25. Jackson, DeSean PHI WR 290.70

26. White, Roddy ATL WR 289.00

27. Manning, Eli NYG QB 288.25

28. 28. Celek, Brent PHI TE 286.60

29. 29. Witten, Jason DAL TE 281.00

30. 30. Smith, Steve NYG WR 278.50

88. Finley, Jermichael GBP TE 198.10 15.238 2.10 13.60 0.00 33.80 B 14.90 3.10 17.90 7.00 32.40 14.50 28.90 14.50 15.40

 

[ImTheScientist]

Also, Gonzo had one of the top 3 QBs in the entire league slinging him the ball. Trent Green was a stud.

I think you are done posting now.

 

[Inspiration]

Also, Gonzo had one of the top 3 QBs in the entire league slinging him the ball. Trent Green was a stud.

I think you are done posting now.

Saying Trent Green was a stud might be a bit of an overstatement, but in his prime he was definitely a great QB. In the four year span from 2002 to 2005, Green was second to only Peyton Manning in passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt. So while there may have been a bit of hyperbole in that statement, I do think that he makes a valid point.

 

[SSOG]

Also, Gonzo had one of the top 3 QBs in the entire league slinging him the ball. Trent Green was a stud.

I think you are done posting now.

Saying Trent Green was a stud might be a bit of an overstatement, but in his prime he was definitely a great QB. In the four year span from 2002 to 2005, Green was second to only Peyton Manning in passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt. So while there may have been a bit of hyperbole in that statement, I do think that he makes a valid point.

There's no hyperbole at all. Trent Green was 2nd in the league in passing yards in 2003. He was 2nd in 2004. He was 2nd in 2005. This, despite the fact that only once in his entire career did he rank in the top 5 in passing attempts. He ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 4th in YPA from 2002-2005. Despite Priest Holmes gobbling up almost every single red zone opportunity, Green still put up 84 TDs to 52 INTs during that span. From 2002 to 2005, only Peyton Manning had more passing yardage (Manning passed for a whopping 383 more yards over those four years combined). Manning's YPA over that span was 7.99, while Green's was 7.97. And Peyton Manning was throwing to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, Marcus Pollard, and Dallas Clark. Trent Green was throwing to Tony Gonzalez... and Eddie Kennison, Dante Hall, Marc Boerigter, and Johnnie Morton. Over those 4 years KC's offense ranked 4th, 2nd, 1st, and 1st in yards. It ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 6th in points. For four years KC had the best offense in the entire NFL, and Trent Green put up the best passing numbers in the entire NFL (or, at the least, matched Peyton Manning for the best passing numbers), despite the fact that their four-deep at receiver was KENNISON/MORTON/BOERIGTER/HALL. If you have some definition of stud that excludes a guy who put up best-in-the-league numbers with dreck at receiver while helming the best offense in the entire NFL, I'd love to hear it. Personally, I can't think of any such definition.Make no mistake about it- Trent Green was a STUD. Capital S. Capital T. Capital U. Capital D. Aaron Rodgers hopes he's one day as good of a passer as Trent Green was.

 

[SSOG]

He did have dandy stats, but that doesnt make him a stud QB. A fantasy stud? Still very debatable.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GreeTr00.htm

Gonzales never had an Aaron Rodgers quality QB in KC.

What would have made him a stud, then? What would he have had to have done other than matching Peyton Manning yard per yard and attempt per attempt, other than helming the top offense in the entire league, other than putting up incredibly stats despite a cadre receivers you'd be more likely to see on a milk carton than an NFL roster? How about the 2000 season, when he arguably outproduced Kurt Warner in his prime? If Trent Green wasn't a stud, then nobody was.