If the best you can get is a bag of used tissues then you might as well hold him. But if someone gives you a first round pick, take it and run. A second round pick would depend how good of a selection it is.
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Jerome Harrison's dynasty value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Portis 26
- Start date
If the best you can get is a bag of used tissues then you might as well hold him. But if someone gives you a first round pick, take it and run. A second round pick would depend how good of a selection it is.
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
Avery
Footballguy
Do you think he's going to be signed by another team to be the lead back with such a short track record of success. I think his prospects are likely worse if he leaves via FA for I think it will be more likely he'd be a lesser part of a RBBC.
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
I agree that Davis will, to some degree, be a factor in Cleveland next year - But your perspective of him being a better prospect than Harrison has ever been is honestly a bit skewed I think.You're neglecting the fact that Davis' high ranking was partially based on him clearly being the coaching staff's 'guy' whom they hand picked in their first Browns draft. On top of that, you're forgetting to mention that Harrison missed almost the entire preseason with an injury this year --- which further added to Davis' value as a prospect because he was given an opportunity to shine throughout the preseason. Also, once the regular season started Davis looked pretty pedestrian in the very few carries that he did get before his injury. Over 2 games he averaged 1.7 yards and his longest run was 5 yards.
So yeah, coming into the year Davis had far more hype surrounding him than Harrison has ever had, but so what? Davis was considered a great prospect this year because he looked good in his preseason games and he was clearly Mangini's guy who looked to be in place to supplant Jamal Lewis as the Browns' primary back. But we haven't seen him produce in regular season games yet and we don't even know if Mangini will be in Cleveland next year.
I respect what you're saying about him, but for me it seems a little overly cautious to assume that a preseason darling who missed almost his entire rookie season will significantly impact the overall dynasty value of an UFA who has a lot of variables going in his favor right now.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
I generally agree with what is being said in terms of his value. His situation isn't stable, which is the main factor in his unclear value. However, in terms of his potential talent and ability to produce, I think a few things are being overlooked.
One of these things is not like the others:Hillis ------ 22-129-1Graham --- 34-124-1Lundi ----- 18-116-0Gado ----- 29-171-1Harrison -- 34-286-3While I generally agree that the masses can tend to overreact on single performances, Harrison's is just a little different. There are only 6 RBs (AP, Lewis, Harrison, Dillon, Alexander, and M. Anderson) who have run for 250+ yards in the last 30 years. Of those, people will likely immediately point to Mike Anderson as the guy whose path Harrison is most likely to follow. But even he put up two top 10 seasons in 2000 and 2005. He likely could have had a pretty good 6 year run had it not been for an injury and playing with Davis and Portis. When given the opportunity, he produced.A few months ago, there was a post (by Homer ?) in the dynasty thread about Austin being ranked too low. He even went on to suggest that Austin should be ranked above Ocho. There were 3-4 pages that followed, basically dismissing the thought as absurd for reasons similar to the ones being presented now. 'He's done nothing for 4 years' and 'He couldn't even beat out Crayton' and so on. Well, 7 weeks later, Austin is ranked above Ocho. You can't ignore 250+ yards. It is unique.
Turner was pretty close to top 5 prior to his injury. RBs do produce after 27, some even starting at that age. Turner and Anderson are two that come to mind.
I think that's an OK reason to use prior to drafting a player. I agree with you that he falls short of the ideal size for a RB. But, after a guy produces, especially at the level Harrison just did, I think you have to throw the 'he's too small' argument out the window. He carried the ball 34 times for 286 yards. Size should no longer be an issue. The company above 250 yards is pretty good. I don't think anyone is looking for a hall of fame career out of Harrison. But to summarily dismiss him, especially based upon the comparisons and examples above, seems a bit premature. When given an opportunity to start, he has produced.
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
I think he 'COULD' be signed as a team's lead back - depending on what he does in his remaining games this season. I can definitely see a scenario where a team decides to invest in him, but it's not very likely by any means though. I agree that if he signs with another team he'd probably be part of a RBBC, but I don't know that he'd be the 'lesser' part necessarily. I mean, at this point in his career he probably isn't going anywhere unless he feels that he'll at least have a chance to compete and start... At 27 years old and this being his only real shot at FA, why would he sign somewhere if they tell him he's going to be the lesser/change of pace back? And after years of virtually being ignored by the Browns, he'd likely only stay in town if he believes he'll be getting an opportunity to be their lead back - Whether that's with Mangini as the coach or not, I don't see him resigning with Cleveland unless his role is going to increase.
So I agree that his value is best if he stays in Cleveland, but if he leaves via FA I don't know that it's necessarily too bad of a thing. It'd obviously depend on the other RBs on the roster, but I don't see why he'd put himself into a situation where he wouldn't at least get an opportunity to compete to be the lead back.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Not without a new CBA. He one of the 4 year guys who could lose their FA status.
T J
Footballguy
.... There are only 6 RBs (AP, Lewis, Harrison, Dillon, Alexander, and M. Anderson) who have run for 250+ yards in the last 30 years.
You know what sucks about that list?
Three of those guys were on my bench the week they did it. Dillon, Anderson, and Harrison.
I specifically remember benching Dillon and Anderson in their weeks because the run defenses they were playing were ranked #1 at the time and I had other options. Dillon I believe was against Denver and Anderson I believe was against the Saints. Harrison? I hadn't even considered starting him this past week.
You know what sucks about that list?
Three of those guys were on my bench the week they did it. Dillon, Anderson, and Harrison.
I specifically remember benching Dillon and Anderson in their weeks because the run defenses they were playing were ranked #1 at the time and I had other options. Dillon I believe was against Denver and Anderson I believe was against the Saints. Harrison? I hadn't even considered starting him this past week.
Restricted
Footballguy
Not true. This is the first game where Harrison has really done something to where I saw him three years ago...
3.4 in a 10 team dynasty draft (I took him)I don't own him anymore. We have a smaller roster for dynasty and I had cut him at one point for the spot. If I did, I would sell him at a decent offer, doesn't even need to be a big one.I really don't see him getting a chance to be a full time contributor in the NFL.
az_prof
Footballguy
I agree, especially considering that he hasn't been used much and to my knowledge hasn't suffered a bunch of injuries already. That said I won't be breaking the bank to go after him this off season because while he has great upside he is no sure thing and I am pretty sure he will be overvalued.
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
Harrison has had 4 total games where he was the starter and got 10+ carries... All of them were this year:12/20/2009 vs. KC: 34 Attempts, 286 Yds, 8.4 Avg, 3 TD -- 2 Rec, 12 Yds, 6.0 Avg, 0 TD
12/06/2009 vs. SD: 10 Attempts, 35 Yds, 3.5 Avg, 0 TD -- 7 Rec, 62 Yds, 8.9 Avg, 2 TD
10/04/2009 vs. CIN: 29 Attempts, 121 Yds, 4.2 Avg, 0 TD -- 5 Rec, 31 Yds, 6.2 Avg, 0 TD
09/27/2009 vs. BAL: 16 Attempts, 52 Yds, 3.3 Avg, 0 TD -- 5 Rec, 33 Yds, 6.6 Avg, 0 TD
Two out of those four games were pretty good rushing games. One other game was a pretty good receiving performance with only 10 rushing attempts, and the fourth game was against Baltimore.
With limited opportunities throughout his career, his overall totals are:
2009: 122 Attempts, 587 Yds, 4.8 Avg, 3 TD -- 32 Rec, 200 Yds, 6.3 Avg, 2 TD
2008: 24 Attempts, 246 Yds, 7.2 Avg, 1 TD -- 12 Rec, 116 Yds, 9.7 Avg, 1 TD
2007: 23 Attempts, 142 Yds, 6.2 Avg, 0 TD -- 2 Rec, 19 Yds, 9.5 Avg, 0 TD
2006: 20 Attempts, 60 Yds, 3.0 Avg, 0 TD -- 9 Rec, 47 Yds, 5.2 Avg, 0 TD
TOTAL: 199 Attempts, 1,035 Yds, 5.2 Avg, 4 TD -- 55 Rec, 382 Yds, 6.9 Avg, 3 TD
If you've never really seen him do anything before this weekend it's because you weren't paying attention. He's had a great career rushing average with limited chances and in the four games where he's started and got a decent amount of touches this year, he's produced in 3 out of 4.
Fullback Fro
yesno
Who is making these general considerations? Scouts? Media? Are you talking pre-nfl draft? After the draft? Who is doing the tauting and how are you comparing them?
inzanitee
Footballguy
You hold.
You probably won't be offered anything valuable for him as he hasn't proved he can do this over any length of time. So you hold and see what he does with his opportunities in the last couple of games. If he does well, then his value is going to rise considerably. If he doesn't, you hang on and see what happens in free agency. He is going to have his chance to prove his worth. The rest is up to him.
You probably won't be offered anything valuable for him as he hasn't proved he can do this over any length of time. So you hold and see what he does with his opportunities in the last couple of games. If he does well, then his value is going to rise considerably. If he doesn't, you hang on and see what happens in free agency. He is going to have his chance to prove his worth. The rest is up to him.
...and Oakland, and Jax. Is he still a "get what you can for him" player? Would you trade him for a '10 2nd rounder? 3rd?
Ned
Footballguy
Why in the world would you trade him for 2 cheap picks?
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Bump... been quiet on this front; Cleveland hasn't made any moves to aquire a FA RB. I'm sure they plan on drafting one since they have like 10 picks this but I thought it was interesting that they didn't make a play for any of the Vets.
They traded for Hillis.
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
Which, I think, is more significant than its' getting credit for... I was a big Harrison supporter in this thread, but the more I think about it the more I realize that the Cleveland RB situation will most likely boil out to a RBBC which will leave Harrison as a decent Flex play but not much more. MAYBE a somewhat decent RB2 if he's able to hold onto the starting job. The landscape will be easier to read after the draft and once we start seeing what Mangini does in camps though.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Other than Mangini's first year in NY, he hasn't been a RBBC coach. Why would you expect that to change now?
omally
Footballguy
They traded for Hillis to use as a fullback.
No they didn't.
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
Mostly because they've gathered up 4 different backs who can each play different roles, plus they can mix Cribbs in there as well. Between Harrison, Davis, Jennings, Hillis and Cribbs - Mangini has a lot of options at his disposal and he showed last year that he's more than willing to commit to a different lead back each week until he feels like he's found the 'hot hand'... And I think Harrison will have a short leash to be honest.Plus, earlier this offseason there were quotes from the front office hinting that they didn't think Harrison could be an every down back and that they wanted to bring in a bigger back to compliment him. The Browns were reportedly interested in Mike Bell but it never materialized and, as we know, they ended up trading for Hillis - who looks like he'll be that 'bigger back'.
Now, they've since changed their tune about Harrison as a featured back and are now saying they're committed to him, so that's definitely a good sign (LINK) - but I have to wonder how they plan on utilizing Hillis, how long of a leash Jerome will have, and how Davis and Jennings will factor into the mix.
Basically, like last year, I don't think it'll necessarily start out as a RBBC but the potential is definitely there for it to quickly devolve into one and be a 'who's starting this week' type of scenario.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
The Browns extended a second-round tender offer to Lawrence Vickers, proving they place a high value on one of the best lead-blockers in the game. Hillis won't see much time at fullback.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
They have one of the best FBs in the leauge already.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Mangini had options in NY as well, with Washington and Jones able to play different roles. Yet despite that, Jones still got over 80% of the carries in 2007 and 2008. Last year, there was no RBBC in Cleveland. In the 9 games that Lewis played, he got over 75% of the RB carries. In 6 of the other 7 games, Harrison got 85% of the RB carries. Mangini just doesn't appear to be a RBBC coach.
As far as carrying the load, the Browns saw what he could handle at the end of the season. In the last 3 games, he carried the ball 106 times. Was there any other RB in the league that carried the ball 106 times over a 3 game period?
Cassius
Footballguy
Which is ridiculous and not sustainable. The front office management has changed and the Browns acquired Hillis, whose style is a noce complement to Harrison's. I think there's definitely a RBBC coming in CLE, just the way the league is going.
Wyld Stallyns
Footballguy
Good points, and I definitely can't argue - Mangini DOES have a track record of using a bellcow back. Though, for the sake of discussion, I do wonder if he's shown an avoidance of RBBC so much as just a tendency to lean on his 'bigger' backs (TJ, Jamal)... Worth considering anyway.Great catch on Harrison getting 85% of the carries in those 6 games last year too, I wasn't aware of that. I'd love to be wrong about how things are going to play out in Cleveland, I'm just nervous about how much of a chance Harrison will 'really' get to show that he can be a featured back. Luckily we still have the draft, schedule, camp and preseason to help us assess things...BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Of course it's not sustainable. I'm not arguing that he'll get 565 carries for the year, just that he has proven he can carry a full load.
Cassius
Footballguy
For 3 games. Which isn't really the definition of "carrying the load" anyways.People are reading way too much into 3 games. He was great, and he'll get the most touches out of any other CLE RB, but he's not a bell cow, 20-25 carry RB. There aren't a lot of those guys left anyways, I doubt Harrison is going to be one of them, and I think getting Hillis, who is a really underrated runner, is an indication that Holmgren agrees.
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
I'd bet getting 35 carries/game for 3 games is a lot tougher on the body than 15-20 carries per game for the season. He doesn't need 20-25 carries per game. Like you said, there are very few of those guys. If he gets 15-20 carries and 3-5 receptions, both of which are very reasonable, he'll have more touches than all but just a few RBs..
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Your not going to get much IMO. If your team is ready to win now, I rather see how much he costs...
NattyDread
Footballguy
It could be argued that Harrison saved Mangini's job. The Browns only won 5 games last year, but got W's in their final four once Harrison was heavily featured. There's no way Mangini will forget about that.
burgundy and gold
Footballguy
I got three picks and a LB(Thomas Davis) for him following the KC game last season: 1st and 2nd rounders from 2011 , 6th rounder from 2010. I own James Davis therefore I'm hoping Harrison is a bust but I could see him having his moments this coming season. I'm pretty stacked at RB though (AP, MJD, Benson headlining my depth chart) so I took a chance and gave him up for what I think was an offer I can live with either way. The Hillis pickup doesn't hurt his value as much as the overall schittyness of the offense and team as a whole. No offence Browns fans, we're in the same boat.
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
I don't think it's that big of a deal. There wasn't much doubt that they were going to bring in a second back to help carry the load. Harrison should still lead the team in carries.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I guess they had to make the move now since their next pick was a full round away... but man, JH gets no respect not even from Holm.I don't think it's that big of a deal. There wasn't much doubt that they were going to bring in a second back to help carry the load. Harrison should still lead the team in carries.
