Jon Kitna top 5 qb? (1 Viewer)

[ATRAIN56]

Jon Kitna sucks. He has 2 good years in his entire career, and he is also a bad FF option. Ok he had 4,000 yards last year. Well I am not impressed. I don't think any team has ever thrown as much as the Lions did last year. He had almost 600 passing attempts! You know if the Lions want to win, they will be trying to balance that offense out more. So expect those yards to go down, and his TDs to stay in the 18-22 range. Then you can't forget his 22 ints, and his 9 lost fumbles. -62 points for turnovers. That is terrible. At best he is a backup, who wont be drafted with much value at all. I would much rather draft Phillip Rivers, a guy who is slipping far in a lot of leagues.

This font shtick of yours is annoying. Almost as much as a your pseudo-analyses of anything relating to football.

 

[cobalt_27]

I like Kitna as well but he plays Oakland in week 1. Do we dare bench him vs a top rated pass defense?

I would bench him week 1 vs the Raiders.

See thats the thing with Kitna. Yes I think he will put up some nice #s this year but he isnt the kind of "stud" that you can play every week without worrying like the other top 6.

I kind of think the opposite is true in that regard.Oakland's pass defense is good, but it was also highly rated because nobody had to pass against the Raiders last year. Phillip Rivers only threw 11 passes in the opener against them. Marc Bulger only threw 22.You've got to be wary of a Tom Brady or Carson Palmer against Oakland because their teams are just gonna run the ball. The Lions with Martz and no defense are going to be throwing all the time no matter what, and that makes Kitna a more reliable start IMO.

I think that Detroit/Oakland game is going to be very high scoring. I would not bench Kitna vs Oakland.

Oakland did have the #1 defense vs. the pass last year though. 150.8 yds/gm. They only allowed 137 passing first downs in 2006, fewest of any team. As a Kitna owner, I'm a little worried.

Anyone want to take a guess as to where Oakland ranked on Passes Attempted against them? Here, I'll save some time: They ranked last in the league. 32nd (410). Nobody threw against them. So, naturally they were going to rank as the lowest in yards allowed compared to the other teams.Now, perhaps, OAK was SOOO good that teams feared the living daylights out of them and their pass defense and elected not to throw the ball.The alternative hypothesis is that OAK's offense was so bad that they were never competitive in any games, and teams decided to just control the clock with the run for the balance of the game.Start Kitna with confidence this week v. OAK.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

I like Kitna as well but he plays Oakland in week 1. Do we dare bench him vs a top rated pass defense?

I would bench him week 1 vs the Raiders.

See thats the thing with Kitna. Yes I think he will put up some nice #s this year but he isnt the kind of "stud" that you can play every week without worrying like the other top 6.

I kind of think the opposite is true in that regard.Oakland's pass defense is good, but it was also highly rated because nobody had to pass against the Raiders last year. Phillip Rivers only threw 11 passes in the opener against them. Marc Bulger only threw 22.You've got to be wary of a Tom Brady or Carson Palmer against Oakland because their teams are just gonna run the ball. The Lions with Martz and no defense are going to be throwing all the time no matter what, and that makes Kitna a more reliable start IMO.

I think that Detroit/Oakland game is going to be very high scoring. I would not bench Kitna vs Oakland.

Oakland did have the #1 defense vs. the pass last year though. 150.8 yds/gm. They only allowed 137 passing first downs in 2006, fewest of any team. As a Kitna owner, I'm a little worried.

Anyone want to take a guess as to where Oakland ranked on Passes Attempted against them? Here, I'll save some time: They ranked last in the league. 32nd (410). Nobody threw against them. So, naturally they were going to rank as the lowest in yards allowed compared to the other teams.Now, perhaps, OAK was SOOO good that teams feared the living daylights out of them and their pass defense and elected not to throw the ball.The alternative hypothesis is that OAK's offense was so bad that they were never competitive in any games, and teams decided to just control the clock with the run for the balance of the game.Start Kitna with confidence this week v. OAK.

I stole this from another poster on another forum regarding Oakland's pass D. It actually is a very good D by the numbers, evenin light of the low amount of passes thrown against them. I benched Kitna for Roethlisburger this week due to the Oakland pass D. Here is the post. I wish I could take credit for compiling the data, but I cant. Thank "Mrtiggergolf" on the Miami Herald Fins forum..."By most fair evaluations, the way we evaluate a teams passing attack is through their QB, and his corresponding QBR, which is used to try and gauge how well the player played, whether he threw for 50 yards or 500. It measures accuracy, TD and INT rates, etc...So, by equal measure, one of the best indications of a teams DEFENSIVE ability against the pass would be in it's Defensive QBR, or more specifically, how did the opposing team's QB do against their defense.Points is largely a bad indicator, cuz as you noted, their inept offense was largely responsible for that.Ok... having said that, how did they do?Opposing QBs posted a QBR average of 74.1 against them, which was the 7th best in football last season.The top 6: Baltimore, New England, Chicago, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Philadelphia. Pretty darn good list there...By comparison, Miami allowed opposing QBs to post a 84.4 QBR, 21st in the league, sandwiched between Dallas/Cincy.Now, we all know our pass defense was our achilles heel, and our great defense was due to our front 7, which was outstanding.But, I think the assertions that Oakland had a very good pass defense is pretty accurate. Led by recent 1st round picks Fabian Washington, Nnamdi Asomugha, and Michael Huff, along with former first rounder Tyrone Poole, 2nd rounder Stanford Routt, 3rd rounder Stuart Schweigert, and others, they did pretty darn well."

 

[cobalt_27]

I like Kitna as well but he plays Oakland in week 1. Do we dare bench him vs a top rated pass defense?

I would bench him week 1 vs the Raiders.

See thats the thing with Kitna. Yes I think he will put up some nice #s this year but he isnt the kind of "stud" that you can play every week without worrying like the other top 6.

I kind of think the opposite is true in that regard.Oakland's pass defense is good, but it was also highly rated because nobody had to pass against the Raiders last year. Phillip Rivers only threw 11 passes in the opener against them. Marc Bulger only threw 22.You've got to be wary of a Tom Brady or Carson Palmer against Oakland because their teams are just gonna run the ball. The Lions with Martz and no defense are going to be throwing all the time no matter what, and that makes Kitna a more reliable start IMO.

I think that Detroit/Oakland game is going to be very high scoring. I would not bench Kitna vs Oakland.

Oakland did have the #1 defense vs. the pass last year though. 150.8 yds/gm. They only allowed 137 passing first downs in 2006, fewest of any team. As a Kitna owner, I'm a little worried.

Anyone want to take a guess as to where Oakland ranked on Passes Attempted against them? Here, I'll save some time: They ranked last in the league. 32nd (410). Nobody threw against them. So, naturally they were going to rank as the lowest in yards allowed compared to the other teams.Now, perhaps, OAK was SOOO good that teams feared the living daylights out of them and their pass defense and elected not to throw the ball.The alternative hypothesis is that OAK's offense was so bad that they were never competitive in any games, and teams decided to just control the clock with the run for the balance of the game.Start Kitna with confidence this week v. OAK.

I stole this from another poster on another forum regarding Oakland's pass D. It actually is a very good D by the numbers, evenin light of the low amount of passes thrown against them. I benched Kitna for Roethlisburger this week due to the Oakland pass D. Here is the post. I wish I could take credit for compiling the data, but I cant. Thank "Mrtiggergolf" on the Miami Herald Fins forum..."By most fair evaluations, the way we evaluate a teams passing attack is through their QB, and his corresponding QBR, which is used to try and gauge how well the player played, whether he threw for 50 yards or 500. It measures accuracy, TD and INT rates, etc...So, by equal measure, one of the best indications of a teams DEFENSIVE ability against the pass would be in it's Defensive QBR, or more specifically, how did the opposing team's QB do against their defense.Points is largely a bad indicator, cuz as you noted, their inept offense was largely responsible for that.Ok... having said that, how did they do?Opposing QBs posted a QBR average of 74.1 against them, which was the 7th best in football last season.The top 6: Baltimore, New England, Chicago, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Philadelphia. Pretty darn good list there...By comparison, Miami allowed opposing QBs to post a 84.4 QBR, 21st in the league, sandwiched between Dallas/Cincy.Now, we all know our pass defense was our achilles heel, and our great defense was due to our front 7, which was outstanding.But, I think the assertions that Oakland had a very good pass defense is pretty accurate. Led by recent 1st round picks Fabian Washington, Nnamdi Asomugha, and Michael Huff, along with former first rounder Tyrone Poole, 2nd rounder Stanford Routt, 3rd rounder Stuart Schweigert, and others, they did pretty darn well."

They're good. Just not elite. Let this week's results against the Lions (yes, THOSE Lions) be Exhibit 1 for the prosecution.273yds/2TDs/1INTNot shabby, but not elite.

 

[DeadStroke]

There's a number of reasons that Kitna should be more effective this year as opposed to last year.

1) His offensive line was decimated with injures 12 different players started on the offensive line at some point or another during the season. Three projected starters missed a combined 29 starts and on top of that, the original backups were injured and missed starts as well. They went out and got Edwin Mulitalo and George Foster who, even if they don't play well, will still be a vast improvement over what they had last year. They won't give up 63 sacks this year.

2) Martz and Kitna never had a viable option for a third receiver last year, there was a revolving door for the 3rd receiver (vital in Martz' offense) . . .they tried Bradford, Drummond, Mike Williams, Kevin Kasper, DeVale Ellis, etc. None of them could hang on to the job. This year, they are not only bringing in Calvin Johnson (who I don't think is going to have a huge year), but they also brought in S. McDonald who, like Mike Furrey, was very familiar with Mike Martz' system from his time in St. Louis. They also have two other backup receivers that they like (they kept 6 receivers this year) and one is on PUP as well. So not only can they properly execute Martz' 3 WR sets, they will also be able to run 4 WR sets as well. Even if one receiver goes down, they shouldn't miss a beat, Roy would hurt, but they will still be productive.

3) A lot of Kitna's interceptions were a result of poor route running by the Receivers. He had his share of mistakes last year, but more than half the interceptions (A number that Martz gave in an interview) were because of poor route running.

4) In order to slow down Martz' offense, teams are going to have to stop the run with 7 in the box, for the most part during preseason they have done that (they did it last year and Kitna sitll put up 4200 yards). This is also a big reason why they took Kevin Jones off of PUP early. They feel they need him in order to get teams to respect the run. They won't rush KJ back into the lineup, but when he's ready, they want to make sure that he's fully prepared to go (through practice).

Is Kitna a top 5 QB? Well, who knows, but I will put him in a tier of guys somewhere between 2-7 and will draft my QB accordingly.

 

[corpcow]

I took Kitna in the late 7th. I backed him up with Eli. Since my league penalizes QBs for INTs, fumbles and sacks, he is somewhat of a risky pick, especially since I also drafted Roy Williams.But Mike Martz always has his team in the top-5 for passing in the NFL, and I am excited about the addition of WR Calvin Johnson. I would not reach for Kitna, but I think he has good value in the 7th round and beyond after the "big six" are gone (Manning, Brady, Palmer, Brees, Bulger, McNabb).

Yep, I grabbed him in the late 7th and then my next value play, Big Ben, in the 10th. I think Kitna has top 5 ability and Ben at least has top 10. The only problem is that all of my sleeper/value QBs seem to have the same bye... those 2, Alex Smith, Losman, etc

 

[shadyridr]

I took Kitna in the late 7th. I backed him up with Eli. Since my league penalizes QBs for INTs, fumbles and sacks, he is somewhat of a risky pick, especially since I also drafted Roy Williams.But Mike Martz always has his team in the top-5 for passing in the NFL, and I am excited about the addition of WR Calvin Johnson. I would not reach for Kitna, but I think he has good value in the 7th round and beyond after the "big six" are gone (Manning, Brady, Palmer, Brees, Bulger, McNabb).

Yep, I grabbed him in the late 7th and then my next value play, Big Ben, in the 10th. I think Kitna has top 5 ability and Ben at least has top 10. The only problem is that all of my sleeper/value QBs seem to have the same bye... those 2, Alex Smith, Losman, etc

Me too. I couldnt pass up Ben even though he has the same bye week as Kitna cuz I think Ben will be top 10 as well. And I like Ben's matchup vs CLE this week but I think Im gonna go with my starters at least for week 1 and start Kitna.

 

[joey]

I took Kitna in the late 7th. I backed him up with Eli. Since my league penalizes QBs for INTs, fumbles and sacks, he is somewhat of a risky pick, especially since I also drafted Roy Williams.But Mike Martz always has his team in the top-5 for passing in the NFL, and I am excited about the addition of WR Calvin Johnson. I would not reach for Kitna, but I think he has good value in the 7th round and beyond after the "big six" are gone (Manning, Brady, Palmer, Brees, Bulger, McNabb).

Yep, I grabbed him in the late 7th and then my next value play, Big Ben, in the 10th. I think Kitna has top 5 ability and Ben at least has top 10. The only problem is that all of my sleeper/value QBs seem to have the same bye... those 2, Alex Smith, Losman, etc

Me too. I couldnt pass up Ben even though he has the same bye week as Kitna cuz I think Ben will be top 10 as well. And I like Ben's matchup vs CLE this week but I think Im gonna go with my starters at least for week 1 and start Kitna.

Me three...Kitna, Big Ben, Cutler, Losman and Smith all have week 6 byes and all would make a fine tandem.In the way-to-many mocks I did leading up to my drafts, I was grabbing Kitna around round 6/7 and Big Ben aroundround 9/10 saying "byes be damned". But when my 2 real drafts happened, I decided to grab Delhommeas a backup instead (in round 12) and draft upside WRs and value RBs where I was grabbing Big Ben.Delhomme doesn't have the same bye week issues as the other, nor the upside, imo. But I'm very high on Kitnathis year and figured I wasn't going to bench him so why not wait even longer for a backup.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Kitna has gone way too high (rounds 3 - 5) in all the redrafts I have been in this year, which I was disappointed with, since I had him targeted later... but I suppose that did free up some other picks for me, RB/WR depth, etc., so I can't complain too much. I just haven't seen him available in a lot of the rounds you guys are saying you got him in...guess I am running with too many sharks?

 

[corpcow]

Kitna has gone way too high (rounds 3 - 5) in all the redrafts I have been in this year, which I was disappointed with, since I had him targeted later... but I suppose that did free up some other picks for me, RB/WR depth, etc., so I can't complain too much. I just haven't seen him available in a lot of the rounds you guys are saying you got him in...guess I am running with too many sharks?

Quite the opposite. Sharks don't take Kitna in rounds 3-5 Kitna's ADP for experts/mocks are between 5-7. In the magazines, his ADP is early round 3. Sounds like you are running with too many people who read bad FF magazines.

Consensus Name Pos Expert MFL Mock Calc Mags CBS 60 Jon Kitna QB 7 61 57 81 60 40 102

(All assuming 12 team leagues, start 1 QB)

 

[Heinz 57]

Remember Elvis Grbac?

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Kitna has gone way too high (rounds 3 - 5) in all the redrafts I have been in this year, which I was disappointed with, since I had him targeted later... but I suppose that did free up some other picks for me, RB/WR depth, etc., so I can't complain too much. I just haven't seen him available in a lot of the rounds you guys are saying you got him in...guess I am running with too many sharks?

Quite the opposite. Sharks don't take Kitna in rounds 3-5 Kitna's ADP for experts/mocks are between 5-7. In the magazines, his ADP is early round 3. Sounds like you are running with too many people who read bad FF magazines.

Consensus Name Pos Expert MFL Mock Calc Mags CBS  60 Jon Kitna QB 7 61 57 81 60 40 102

(All assuming 12 team leagues, start 1 QB)

good point... i actually meant to put the shark in quotes ("sharks")

 

[The Ref]

If healthy...

He'll throw for 4200/25/25 with his eyes closed.

fixed.Kitna will produce numbers this year, but there is going to be at least one game where he tosses up 4 picks and your going to walk away with a negative score from your QB.

 

[shadyridr]

If healthy...

He'll throw for 4200/25/25 with his eyes closed.

fixed.Kitna will produce numbers this year, but there is going to be at least one game where he tosses up 4 picks and your going to walk away with a negative score from your QB.

I expect a few horrible games but I doubt he'll ever come close to negative points because they throw the ball so much he'll always have a ton of yards passing.

 

[cobalt_27]

Remember Elvis Grbac?

Sure. What's he got to do with John Kitna?