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Jonathan Stewart Dynasty Value (1 Viewer)

Tornacl

Footballguy
Jonathan Stewart has long been one of the biggest fantasy teases. He is an extremely talented RB, but has never produced anywhere near his fantasy potential due to being locked into a timeshare with another talented RB. Now that he has signed an extension to stay with Carolina for the next 5 years, what is the shark move for dynasties?

Sell him - He's locked in a time share for at least another season, and with Cam Newton as his QB, even if he emerges as the lead back, Newton will vulture too many TDs. Next season, he MAY get the chance to be the lead back, but Carolina has made some unusual decisions with respect to their RB situation so who knows. If you sell him now, there are still a lot of owners who view him as a stud RB, and you're better off getting good value for him now. He's 25 now, has had one 1000 yard season, and has combined for seven TDs the past two years (both rushing and receiving). He's a player that everyone views as the best chance to break out, but we've been waiting for that to happen and it is like a mirage in the desert.

Buy him - Most fantasy owners have long viewed him as a stud RB in waiting. For them to have acquired him, they likely spent a high draft pick, or gave up a lot to get him. Many believed that DeAngelo would not be re-signed last season, or that Stewart would be allowed to walk or be traded. As we all know, neither one of those things happened, as Carolina re-signed Williams last year, and then re-signed Stewart this season. Many of the Stewart owners are likely tiring of waiting for what appears will never happen. This is the perfect opportunity for a shark to come in and take him off the weary owner's hands. He's still 25, with pretty low mileage, averaging only about 180 carries a season through his first four years. DeAngelo's contract makes it very likely that he is allowed to walk after this season. Stewart's ankle injury may be the last straw for his owners, add to that the fear of Newton scoring every goal-line TD, and you may be able to get him for a low price. Even in a timeshare, his four seasons he's been RB26, RB12, RB39, and RB22 (in a .5 PPR for RBs league).

So what's the shark move? Well, just like everything else it all depends on the price. If you own him, and you can get someone to pay the price based on his potential, it may be a good idea to cash out.

If you own him, what would it take to get you to sell him? And if you were looking to acquire him, what is the most you'd pay in order to make it a worthwhile risk?

 
Hold/buy. He is a top 10 RB in the league and his day will come eventually. Williams is 29 years old and I don't think his contract is guaranteed after this season.

 
Hold/buy. He is a top 10 RB in the league and his day will come eventually. Williams is 29 years old and I don't think his contract is guaranteed after this season.
I also view him as a hold/buy. If you own him, you just have to wait it out and hope he does get his chance next year, or if D-Will gets hurt, he's golden. I would buy him, but would not overpay for him based on the premise that he'll have the job to himself some day. May never happen.
 
I think he is a hold. He will not be on your league's WW. He status is the same though; unfulfilled promise unless dynamics change. I own him BTW.

 
Hold/buy. He is a top 10 RB in the league and his day will come eventually. Williams is 29 years old and I don't think his contract is guaranteed after this season.
While this is true, I doubt it means he will be going anywhere. Details on his contract from Rotoworld:
7/29/2011: Signed a five-year, $43 million contract. The deal contains $21 million guaranteed, including a $16 million signing bonus and $5 million of Williams' second-year base salary. 2012: $5.25 million, 2013: $4.75 million, 2014: $5.75 million, 2015: $6.75 million, 2016: Free Agent
I assume the $16M signing bonus is prorated at $3.2M per year from a cap perspective. If they cut him after this season, that means $9.6M still has to hit the cap. Meanwhile, he only stands to make $4.75M next season. I don't see them cutting him in that scenario. Even in 2014, that means a $6.4M cap hit to cut him vs. paying him $5.75M to play.If someone knows differently, please correct me.

Aside from that, as long as he is productive, I suspect it's more likely he would restructure to stay than get cut. He and Stewart are an effective combo for Carolina, and they are best friends. And both are getting paid very well. I don't see incentive for any parties here to change the approach.

I own Williams in both of my dynasty leagues, and I own Stewart in one of them. Believe me, I hope I'm wrong about this.

 
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If nothing changes, Stewart is a mid-to-low RB2 going forward, even with Williams healthy. His role in the offense has increased every year, while Williams' has decreased. Last year he was RB18 in my yardage-heavy leagues. Given a decent regression in the TD department, I think that's a reasonable expectation- RB18 or so for the foreseeable future. I believe he should be valued above that, though, because of his talent and upside- most guys in the RB18 range can't single-handedly win you leagues like Stewart did a few years back. There are still plenty of paths to fantasy stardom for Stewart- it's not exactly rare for 29 year old backs to get injured or become less effective.

Keeping those factors in mind- huge talent, proven production, reasonably young age, startable floor, all-world upside- I'd value Stewart in the RB10-14 range. Buy or sell recommendations depend on whether the other guy values him higher or lower than that.

 
Meh, he's just never going to have fantasy relevance. Good player and all when healthy but never going to reach the potential.

 
Meh, he's just never going to have fantasy relevance. Good player and all when healthy but never going to reach the potential.
Yup, and it really makes no sense for the Panthers to hoard all these RB's. They would be a better team with just one of Williams/Stewart IMO and save a lot of money as well. Tolbert is also a pretty solid all-around back.
 
Meh, he's just never going to have fantasy relevance. Good player and all when healthy but never going to reach the potential.
Yup, and it really makes no sense for the Panthers to hoard all these RB's. They would be a better team with just one of Williams/Stewart IMO and save a lot of money as well. Tolbert is also a pretty solid all-around back.
Yeah, not sure what the management is thinking there.
 
Is this guy the biggest waste of RB talent in the history of the NFL?
Bo Jackson? Ricky Williams? Steven Jackson? Onterrio Smith?Edit: Top 5, at least.
Bo basically chose not to play much football and at least Ricky and SJax played despite toiling in relative obscurity. Stewart should be a perennial Pro Bowl'er, not stuck in a horrible RBBC on a bad team.Disclaimer: I've never been a Stewart owner, but I hate seeing the potential wased.
 
it's just bad coaching. that's all. talented guy, but the nfl is full of talent. isn't this why team don't overpay for RBs anymore?

 
Is this guy the biggest waste of RB talent in the history of the NFL?
Bo Jackson? Ricky Williams? Steven Jackson? Onterrio Smith?Edit: Top 5, at least.
Bo basically chose not to play much football and at least Ricky and SJax played despite toiling in relative obscurity. Stewart should be a perennial Pro Bowl'er, not stuck in a horrible RBBC on a bad team.Disclaimer: I've never been a Stewart owner, but I hate seeing the potential wased.
Bo's career was ended by injury before it ever really started. Ricky smoked a lot of weed, quit the league to learn how to align chakras, spent a year being terrible in the CFL, then finally came back to the league and played well enough in his 30s to make everyone wonder what would have happened if he'd cared about football from the start.
 
Is this guy the biggest waste of RB talent in the history of the NFL?
Bo Jackson? Ricky Williams? Steven Jackson? Onterrio Smith?Edit: Top 5, at least.
Not sure Ricky Williams deserves to be on this list. At least not the Ricky Williams who totaled 12600+ YFS and 74 TDs in his career. I agree he didn't fulfill his potential, but among the top 5 biggest wastes of RB talent in NFL history? I can't see that.
 
He got almost every carry today, but unfortunately the bye week wasn't enough for Carolina to figure out that the idiotic read option play calling. Every handoff is delayed by about a 1/2 second and the running back (regardless of who it is) is set up to fail.

Stewart and Deangelo's problem is 90% playcalling. Fortunately, it's so ridiculously bad, I fully expect a housecleaning in the coaching staff at the end of this season.

 
Is this guy the biggest waste of RB talent in the history of the NFL?
Bo Jackson? Ricky Williams? Steven Jackson? Onterrio Smith?Edit: Top 5, at least.
Not sure Ricky Williams deserves to be on this list. At least not the Ricky Williams who totaled 12600+ YFS and 74 TDs in his career. I agree he didn't fulfill his potential, but among the top 5 biggest wastes of RB talent in NFL history? I can't see that.
He gets bonus points for being the only guy on the list to voluntarily waste his own talent. He decided to quit football and take classes at community college on eastern medicine or therapeutic massage or who knows what. Disappeared for a couple of years, spent a year in the CFL, and then came back just in time to put up arguably the second best age 32+ season in NFL history (behind Sweetness).
 
Is this guy the biggest waste of RB talent in the history of the NFL?
Bo Jackson? Ricky Williams? Steven Jackson? Onterrio Smith?Edit: Top 5, at least.
Not sure Ricky Williams deserves to be on this list. At least not the Ricky Williams who totaled 12600+ YFS and 74 TDs in his career. I agree he didn't fulfill his potential, but among the top 5 biggest wastes of RB talent in NFL history? I can't see that.
He gets bonus points for being the only guy on the list to voluntarily waste his own talent. He decided to quit football and take classes at community college on eastern medicine or therapeutic massage or who knows what. Disappeared for a couple of years, spent a year in the CFL, and then came back just in time to put up arguably the second best age 32+ season in NFL history (behind Sweetness).
Waanstadt ruined Ricky. He needed a coach with a game plan other that give the ball to Ricky. The dude ran Ricky into the ground.
 
Is this guy the biggest waste of RB talent in the history of the NFL?
Bo Jackson? Ricky Williams? Steven Jackson? Onterrio Smith?Edit: Top 5, at least.
Not sure Ricky Williams deserves to be on this list. At least not the Ricky Williams who totaled 12600+ YFS and 74 TDs in his career. I agree he didn't fulfill his potential, but among the top 5 biggest wastes of RB talent in NFL history? I can't see that.
He gets bonus points for being the only guy on the list to voluntarily waste his own talent. He decided to quit football and take classes at community college on eastern medicine or therapeutic massage or who knows what. Disappeared for a couple of years, spent a year in the CFL, and then came back just in time to put up arguably the second best age 32+ season in NFL history (behind Sweetness).
I think this would be a good thread topic. How about Robert Smith? Didn't he walk away in his prime? What other RBs besides Williams and Smith did that? Who are the best talents who got bounced out of the league due to drugs/PEDs/trouble with the law? :popcorn:
 
'Just Win Baby said:
'SSOG said:
'Just Win Baby said:
'SSOG said:
'cstu said:
Is this guy the biggest waste of RB talent in the history of the NFL?
Bo Jackson? Ricky Williams? Steven Jackson? Onterrio Smith?Edit: Top 5, at least.
Not sure Ricky Williams deserves to be on this list. At least not the Ricky Williams who totaled 12600+ YFS and 74 TDs in his career. I agree he didn't fulfill his potential, but among the top 5 biggest wastes of RB talent in NFL history? I can't see that.
He gets bonus points for being the only guy on the list to voluntarily waste his own talent. He decided to quit football and take classes at community college on eastern medicine or therapeutic massage or who knows what. Disappeared for a couple of years, spent a year in the CFL, and then came back just in time to put up arguably the second best age 32+ season in NFL history (behind Sweetness).
I think this would be a good thread topic. How about Robert Smith? Didn't he walk away in his prime? What other RBs besides Williams and Smith did that? Who are the best talents who got bounced out of the league due to drugs/PEDs/trouble with the law? :popcorn:
My vote would be Bo Jackson who preferred to be an average baseball player than play football full-time. I've always wondered what would have happened to the Bucs if Bo had decided to play for them in 1986 with Steve Young at QB. Their defense got much better in 1987 and I don't think it's too outrageous that they could have been a wild card team with those two instead of DeBerg and Wilder.
 
'Just Win Baby said:
'SSOG said:
'Just Win Baby said:
'SSOG said:
'cstu said:
Is this guy the biggest waste of RB talent in the history of the NFL?
Bo Jackson? Ricky Williams? Steven Jackson? Onterrio Smith?Edit: Top 5, at least.
Not sure Ricky Williams deserves to be on this list. At least not the Ricky Williams who totaled 12600+ YFS and 74 TDs in his career. I agree he didn't fulfill his potential, but among the top 5 biggest wastes of RB talent in NFL history? I can't see that.
He gets bonus points for being the only guy on the list to voluntarily waste his own talent. He decided to quit football and take classes at community college on eastern medicine or therapeutic massage or who knows what. Disappeared for a couple of years, spent a year in the CFL, and then came back just in time to put up arguably the second best age 32+ season in NFL history (behind Sweetness).
I think this would be a good thread topic. How about Robert Smith? Didn't he walk away in his prime? What other RBs besides Williams and Smith did that? Who are the best talents who got bounced out of the league due to drugs/PEDs/trouble with the law? :popcorn:
Not exactly the same situation, since he was entering his age 32 season, but I would have loved to see what Tiki could have done with another couple of years. If anyone could have held off Father Time, it was Tiki, who put up 2000+ YFS at 29, 30, and again at 31. His age 29 season was the 3rd most yards by a 29 year old (behind Sanders and Holmes), and his age 30 and 31 marks both stand as the best all-time.And, of course, there was Sanders. Again, not in his prime, but he left a lot of yards on the table.
 
'cstu said:
Is this guy the biggest waste of RB talent in the history of the NFL?
He's got another RB in the same backfield to compete with IMO.
 
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'solorca said:
He got almost every carry today, but unfortunately the bye week wasn't enough for Carolina to figure out that the idiotic read option play calling. Every handoff is delayed by about a 1/2 second and the running back (regardless of who it is) is set up to fail.Stewart and Deangelo's problem is 90% playcalling. Fortunately, it's so ridiculously bad, I fully expect a housecleaning in the coaching staff at the end of this season.
i believe you are completely right. the way this team calls plays is going to get this coaching staff fired.
 
Odds JStew or DW gets traded by Tuesday?
Zero
:goodposting: The real problem with the Carolina Panthers is the same reason neither of these guys will be traded: Marty Hurney has signed both of them to such ridiculous contracts that no team would ever take on the cap burden. It's the same reason the Panthers stink and spend all their money in the wrong places. 29 year old DeAngelo Williams got 5 years, 43 million. Nobody wants that. Marty Hurney is the only GM in the NFL that would sign that deal. Stewart gets his, 6 years, 38 million. That's 81 million in the backfield alone... and by backfield I mean runningbacks. Throw in another 51+ million for Jon Beason to play six games a year and you have no chance to be competitive.JStew, Williams, and the Panthers in general are STUCK.
 
Odds JStew or DW gets traded by Tuesday?
Zero
:goodposting: The real problem with the Carolina Panthers is the same reason neither of these guys will be traded: Marty Hurney has signed both of them to such ridiculous contracts that no team would ever take on the cap burden. It's the same reason the Panthers stink and spend all their money in the wrong places. 29 year old DeAngelo Williams got 5 years, 43 million. Nobody wants that. Marty Hurney is the only GM in the NFL that would sign that deal. Stewart gets his, 6 years, 38 million. That's 81 million in the backfield alone... and by backfield I mean runningbacks. Throw in another 51+ million for Jon Beason to play six games a year and you have no chance to be competitive.JStew, Williams, and the Panthers in general are STUCK.
Deangelo's contract isn't prohibitive anymore. If he got traded, his signing bonus hit would get accelerated onto Carolina's cap, and he'd be left with essentially a 4-year, $21 mil contract with no guarantees and no penalty for cutting him in the future. Very reasonable for the team taking him on, although I doubt Carolina would have the cap space to eat that hit in the middle of the season.
 
Management paid backs.

Coaching staff won't use them.

Not on the same page. Or even book.

Staff will be gone. Wouldn't be surprised if it were as early as this week.

 
Odds JStew or DW gets traded by Tuesday?
Zero
:goodposting: The real problem with the Carolina Panthers is the same reason neither of these guys will be traded: Marty Hurney has signed both of them to such ridiculous contracts that no team would ever take on the cap burden. It's the same reason the Panthers stink and spend all their money in the wrong places. 29 year old DeAngelo Williams got 5 years, 43 million. Nobody wants that. Marty Hurney is the only GM in the NFL that would sign that deal. Stewart gets his, 6 years, 38 million. That's 81 million in the backfield alone... and by backfield I mean runningbacks. Throw in another 51+ million for Jon Beason to play six games a year and you have no chance to be competitive.

JStew, Williams, and the Panthers in general are STUCK.
Deangelo's contract isn't prohibitive anymore. If he got traded, his signing bonus hit would get accelerated onto Carolina's cap, and he'd be left with essentially a 4-year, $21 mil contract with no guarantees and no penalty for cutting him in the future. Very reasonable for the team taking him on, although I doubt Carolina would have the cap space to eat that hit in the middle of the season.
As of 9/3/12, they had 9.2 million. I was surprised. I thought they were one of the teams struggling to fill the new cap space requirement.Cap Space

 
JStew, Williams, and the Panthers in general are STUCK.
Eh, if you are Stewart and Williams, you are getting paid a ton of money for not much work. Compared to the beating other RBs making similar money take, their working lives are a picnic. :thumbup: :thumbup:
Unless they are competitive people who want the ball in their hands and are desperate to win - then they are probably both miserable.
Stewart re-signed while knowing that DeAngelo was re-signed, Tolbert was signed, and Cam was around long-term. I find it pretty unlikely that he's a guy who's desperate to get the ball in his hands, so long as he's being paid like a guy who is.
 
I just can't bring myself to part with him. I love his talent and I keep thinking at some point this season the Panthers are going to wise up and start giving him (and Williams) more touches and take the pressure off Newton, who's clearly not playing well.

Damn I'm dumb.

 
I just can't bring myself to part with him. I love his talent and I keep thinking at some point this season the Panthers are going to wise up and start giving him (and Williams) more touches and take the pressure off Newton, who's clearly not playing well.Damn I'm dumb.
in the same boat. The most carries either Stewart or Williams have gotten this year is 14 carries...14! for the most expensive backfield in the league. Makes ZERO sense and you have to think that logic will somehow prevail and they will start to run a normal / non-gimmick offense but I'm still waiting.....
 
As a Stewart owner and Packers fan, my secret fantasy is that the Packers make a trade for him.
I'd love that too but as long as Ted Thompson's the GM a fantasy is all that will ever be.There are some positive signs with Stewart. He's starting to get more involved in the passing game (5 receptions in last two games after only 2 in his first two). He was on the field a lot more than Williams yesterday and got several snaps inside the 5 (although Tolbert did score). He looks real close to having some positive production. But we could be here a few weeks from now still saying the same thing - "He's close." That doesn't do fantasy owners any good.

 
As a Stewart owner and Packers fan, my secret fantasy is that the Packers make a trade for him.
I'd love that too but as long as Ted Thompson's the GM a fantasy is all that will ever be.There are some positive signs with Stewart. He's starting to get more involved in the passing game (5 receptions in last two games after only 2 in his first two). He was on the field a lot more than Williams yesterday and got several snaps inside the 5 (although Tolbert did score). He looks real close to having some positive production. But we could be here a few weeks from now still saying the same thing - "He's close." That doesn't do fantasy owners any good.
The best news for Stewart happened today with the firing of the GM. Any GM who spends big money signing 2 RBs to long-term contracts (in today's NFL) is a complete moron. You can't lock up that much money on a backfield while the rest of your roster atrophies.A new GM will likely have free reign to roll back the stupidity of the past....even though it was likely sanctioned/ordered by senile owner Richardson. This lets Richardson save face on his own moronic decisions and pretend it was all the GMs fault.

 
Hold/buy. He is a top 10 RB in the league and his day will come eventually. Williams is 29 years old and I don't think his contract is guaranteed after this season.
While this is true, I doubt it means he will be going anywhere. Details on his contract from Rotoworld:
7/29/2011: Signed a five-year, $43 million contract. The deal contains $21 million guaranteed, including a $16 million signing bonus and $5 million of Williams' second-year base salary. 2012: $5.25 million, 2013: $4.75 million, 2014: $5.75 million, 2015: $6.75 million, 2016: Free Agent
I assume the $16M signing bonus is prorated at $3.2M per year from a cap perspective. If they cut him after this season, that means $9.6M still has to hit the cap. Meanwhile, he only stands to make $4.75M next season. I don't see them cutting him in that scenario. Even in 2014, that means a $6.4M cap hit to cut him vs. paying him $5.75M to play.If someone knows differently, please correct me.

Aside from that, as long as he is productive, I suspect it's more likely he would restructure to stay than get cut. He and Stewart are an effective combo for Carolina, and they are best friends. And both are getting paid very well. I don't see incentive for any parties here to change the approach.

I own Williams in both of my dynasty leagues, and I own Stewart in one of them. Believe me, I hope I'm wrong about this.
As discussed in the dynasty thread, this is actually incorrect. The bonus proration of $3.2MM is added to his current salary, so for 2013 his number (against the cap) is $7.95MM. To cut/trade him would cost the Panthers $9.6MM, or $1.55MM more than they're already on the hook for. Plus the bonus money is spent; the annual salaries are actual $$ they could allocate elsewhere.I think a trade is a real possibility. As someone pointed out above, the new team wouldn't be on the hook for the salary proration, making DW a 4 year/$21MM contract, or very reasonable for a player of his level. If Carolina could "buy" a 3rd or 4th round draft pick for an extra $1.55MM against the cap, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see that happen.

 

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