Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Curious how Jordy Nelson is viewed in dynasty. He finished as the #4 overall WR in PPR last season, but obviously is not considered a top 5 dynasty WR.
What is he worth and why?
What is he worth and why?
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Jordy Nelson PPR dynasty value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Lott's Fingertip
- Start date
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Right now looking at my roster, I have the 5th overall pick. I'd trade it for Jordy. Why not? He's a heck of a good player.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I think anywhere from 1.03 to 1.05 is legitimate. I'd rather have Richardson and Luck for sure. After that, its personal preference/need. Blackmon and RG3 are both exceptional prospects. I would definitely like to see where Blackmon ended up before I made that call. If he goes to Jacksonville, give me Jordy.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
It's a funny thing about Jordy Nelson. He is a total stud with the best QB in the game throwing to him, but no one is willing to give much in trade value.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Nelson's still undervalued.
The #'s Nelson got were the ones some were projecting for Finley. I still think there's pro-Finley guys out there that'd give as much for him as they would Nelson. (No debating the upside of either alongside Rodgers)
To answer OP question, 1.03 - 1.05 sounds right to me. I'd take Richardson/Luck over him. Others would be based on draft landing spot.
The #'s Nelson got were the ones some were projecting for Finley. I still think there's pro-Finley guys out there that'd give as much for him as they would Nelson. (No debating the upside of either alongside Rodgers)
To answer OP question, 1.03 - 1.05 sounds right to me. I'd take Richardson/Luck over him. Others would be based on draft landing spot.
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He is #5 on Matt Waldman's rankings.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
True, and as much as I love Waldman, I think this ranking will be an outlier.Calvin, Fitz, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Nicks, Jennings, A.Johnson, Welker, White, Austin, Dez, Wallace, Bowe, V.Jackson, Marshall... plus a few more... I think you can make a decent case for any of these guys to be above Jordy. Of course, you can make a decent case for Jordy as well. I would rather have Jordy as my WR2 than my WR1.
I like him, I'm just not sure quite how much.
Presuming this is a startup dynasty with fairly typical scoring, the only rookies I would take over Nelson are Richardson and Luck, as I feel only these two players are likely to outproduce Nelson for the forseeable future.
I would take Nelson over all of this year's WR class. Only Blackmon would make me stop and think. For me, it's either 1.03 or 1.04
I would take Nelson over all of this year's WR class. Only Blackmon would make me stop and think. For me, it's either 1.03 or 1.04
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Interesting. Jones and Bennett are worth rostering, but are more throw-ins now. Hankerson plus the 1.06 is a pretty reasonable haul, IMO. Clearly Nelson is valued more than the 1.06 in this deal.
It seems the consensus is moving towards Nelson being worth 1.03-1.06. I thought more nervous Nellies would be harping on Nelson's one year track record and skewing the results towards later picks.
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Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
We have heard from his supporters.
What are the folks that are voting "1.11 or later" concerned about?
What are the folks that are voting "1.11 or later" concerned about?
mlball77
Footballguy
Nelson had a great season and I would put him at = mid first rd pick. 1.11 or worse seems crazy to me. #5 or #6 seems about right to me.
A couple of small dings to his potential value, imo, is that he isn't as young as you might think at first glance (turning 27 in a couple months) and a couple of his monster games were posted when Jennings was out at the end of the season. -Don't get me wrong, these aren't major issues, they are more of the knit-pick variety. Just pointing them out.
Honestly, if I were looking to buy Nelson, a mid first rd pick would probably be about the max I'd pay, but if I owned him, I probably wouldn't sell him for that. He had such a great year that I'd sit tight with him unless I got a top 2 pick, or maybe #3 if I needed a young QB and was big on one or both of Luck/RGIII.
A couple of small dings to his potential value, imo, is that he isn't as young as you might think at first glance (turning 27 in a couple months) and a couple of his monster games were posted when Jennings was out at the end of the season. -Don't get me wrong, these aren't major issues, they are more of the knit-pick variety. Just pointing them out.
Honestly, if I were looking to buy Nelson, a mid first rd pick would probably be about the max I'd pay, but if I owned him, I probably wouldn't sell him for that. He had such a great year that I'd sit tight with him unless I got a top 2 pick, or maybe #3 if I needed a young QB and was big on one or both of Luck/RGIII.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
He only had something 94 targets last year. Just like Desean Jackson a couple years ago he had flukish results in a limited role as a primarily deep threat, and is unlikely to be repeated barring a major change in his role. Wouldn't want to bank on that. I'd sell high if I owned him.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Dynasty Mock
There was a decent dynasty mock draft that started Feb 6 and finished Feb 17. It included Chris Wesseling, for what it is worth. It is a PPR mock that includes rookie draft positions as part of the overall draft.
Jordy went at pick 41 overall as the #18 WR. He went immediately after pick 1.02 and a few picks before pick 1.03.
Decent commentary with the draft, well worth checking out.
There was a decent dynasty mock draft that started Feb 6 and finished Feb 17. It included Chris Wesseling, for what it is worth. It is a PPR mock that includes rookie draft positions as part of the overall draft.
Jordy went at pick 41 overall as the #18 WR. He went immediately after pick 1.02 and a few picks before pick 1.03.
Decent commentary with the draft, well worth checking out.
Pictus Cat
Footballguy
http://packersnews.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20120328/PKR01/120328081/1058&located=rssLooks like they are looking to increase his targets
MAC_32
Footballguy
Depends on my roster. I think all of RG3, Luck, Blackmon, Miller, Martin, and Jordy are similarly valued. If I have a hole at WR then I'd trade the 1.2, I could probably get more than that but that's what I'd be willing to do. If I don't then it'd depend on the rest of my roster.
cstu
Footballguy
That's easy to say but with Cobb waiting in the wings and Driver still hanging around I think it'll be tough to do as long as Jennings is there.
az_prof
Footballguy
I voted 1.08. I like him but my concerns are whether his talent is elite or not. I think he is a good, but not great WR, in a great situation. I expect Cobb to take a lot more looks in 2013, if not 2012; Cobb looks elite to me. I like Jennings better. Will Nelson remain in GB when his contract expires? If not, I don't think there is a risk he won't do as well somewhere else.
johnadams
Footballguy
I'm a bit in this boat as well. Plus, he's not a clear number 1 on his own team. I voted 1.06, preferring the top four (I'd prefer Blackmon because I think his natural talent and upside in dynasty over a few years is bigger) and keeping another spot open for the chance that someone runs up my draft charts.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Let's see here, let me just flip open my little pad of paper...
Great QB throwing him the ball...check!
Pass happy offense...check!
Enough talent around him so he is rarely the focus of the defense...check!
Coming into his prime and signed for the next 3 years...check!
1200 yds and 15 TD on his resume...check!
I'll take one Jordy Nelson please.
Great QB throwing him the ball...check!
Pass happy offense...check!
Enough talent around him so he is rarely the focus of the defense...check!
Coming into his prime and signed for the next 3 years...check!
1200 yds and 15 TD on his resume...check!
I'll take one Jordy Nelson please.
His YPC in 2011 was an anomaly.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Floor? Ceiling? Would love to see some projections.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
There's just too many options in GB, I have my doubts he puts up those numbers again.
smackdaddies
Footballguy
Hard not to value him at the very top. I just don't value a dp as high as a proven player on a proven team. Obviously scoring, rosters, team need, etc matter, but still....
from todays JS
Opportunity matters: The way wide receiver Jordy Nelson can have a better season than he did a year ago is to get the ball more.
At least that's what McCarthy thinks.
Nelson led the team in receptions (68), yards (1,263) and touchdowns (15) last season despite not being the featured receiver in most games. Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley were the ones put in positions to be the most productive and Nelson reaped the benefit of teams double-teaming them.
McCarthy would like to start featuring Nelson more, including increasing his number of snaps in the slot where Jennings is often the featured guy.
"Jordy is a perfect example of a guy who was given more opportunities last year and performed outstanding," McCarthy said. "We'll keep moving him around, probably play him in the slot a little more than he's played in the past. Those are the kind of things we continue to look at, give him more matchups, expand his route tree where he's maybe more of the focus.
"Not that he can't run those routes, it's more about having the opportunity because statistics speak for themselves."
from todays JS
Opportunity matters: The way wide receiver Jordy Nelson can have a better season than he did a year ago is to get the ball more.
At least that's what McCarthy thinks.
Nelson led the team in receptions (68), yards (1,263) and touchdowns (15) last season despite not being the featured receiver in most games. Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley were the ones put in positions to be the most productive and Nelson reaped the benefit of teams double-teaming them.
McCarthy would like to start featuring Nelson more, including increasing his number of snaps in the slot where Jennings is often the featured guy.
"Jordy is a perfect example of a guy who was given more opportunities last year and performed outstanding," McCarthy said. "We'll keep moving him around, probably play him in the slot a little more than he's played in the past. Those are the kind of things we continue to look at, give him more matchups, expand his route tree where he's maybe more of the focus.
"Not that he can't run those routes, it's more about having the opportunity because statistics speak for themselves."
papalazarou
Footballguy
This deal just went down in a dynasty league I'm in:
Jones, Felix DAL RB;Nelson, Jordy GBP WR; 1.07; 2.07
1.01; 2.01
Interested to hear peoples opinions....
Jones, Felix DAL RB;Nelson, Jordy GBP WR; 1.07; 2.07
1.01; 2.01
Interested to hear peoples opinions....
HAM
Footballguy
Thanks for posting this.
Jersey Jammer
Footballguy
He was consistent all year so you shouldn't see a drop off at all. No reason to think he was a one year wonder. His targets should go up, but TDs decrease, which could net out from a FF perspective.
bluesclues
Footballguy
My concern w/ Jordy is all his big games came at home.
When he played on the road - his numbers didnt merit his credentials.
He reminds me of Ocho Cinco in his glory days - he would get you the big game, then follow it with 2 stinkers.
I want consistency with my starters.
If Nelson can play well on the road w/ Rodgers - this is a great player.
Until then, I am hesitant to give much more than 1.07 as my pick.
When he played on the road - his numbers didnt merit his credentials.
He reminds me of Ocho Cinco in his glory days - he would get you the big game, then follow it with 2 stinkers.
I want consistency with my starters.
If Nelson can play well on the road w/ Rodgers - this is a great player.
Until then, I am hesitant to give much more than 1.07 as my pick.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I think he's undervalued. He's a good young (for a WR) player in a great situation, and I'd feel pretty good about him as a high end WR2 (1100/7+) moving forward. I'd easily trade any pick 1.05 and later for him in any format. Depending on QB scoring, I'd move 1.03 or 1.04 for him if I felt set at QB.
cr8f
Footballguy
He dropped too many passes late in the season. I'd trade a 1.07 but not sure and the 1.05.
