All this hype surrounding these second year RB's makes me think of summer of 2003 where Willie Green was seen as a stud in the making. He, like many of the rookie RB's last season, had a great second half/end of the season his rookie year. Does anyone have any info about what his ADP was in startup dynasty leagues during that summer/off-season? I think one guy in particular looks very similar to Willie Green. That's Julius Jones. Yes, Jones does not have the off the field issues that Green has, but nonetheless very similar performance in their rookie year's. Jones had nice games against sub-par rushing defenses and struggled against the stronger defenses (i.e. Bal, Was). IMO, this guy is getting way too much hype for a few solid games. In addition, Parcells can't have all that much confidence in him if he signs A-train and drafts Barber. Talk about how these guys were brought in for insurance or for increased use of the ground game by the Cowboys, but that'd be avoiding the fact that Parcells is not showing all that much confidence in him. Lee Suggs was drafted during the 2003 offseason following Green's solid second half of his rookie season in 2002. Barber is drafted in 2005 after Jones' solid second half of his rookie season in 2004. Very interesting parallel.I know I'm going to get some heat on this and likely get responses saying that there are articles saying that Jones is going to see more balls come his way in the passing game, but that's all talk. Actually drafting and signing additional running backs is an action showing signs of how Parcells actually views JJ's role.I think Julius Jones is Willie Green Part 2...I know many of you are disagree, but is there anyone who agrees?
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Julius Jones- 2005 version of Willie Green? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Patoons
- Start date
Avery
Footballguy
I could point to similarites between any two RBs in the NFL if I pick and choose ways in wich they are similar; team success, ound they are drafted in, runing style, other RBs on the roster and off-field issues just to name a few.Generally speaking, I think their are very different RBs on very different paths of success in the NFL.
Chessmaster
Footballguy
William Green's downfall had little to do with skill and more to do with his off the field problems and a general ineptitude of the players around him.So, for you to compare Julius Jones to Green without having any evidence of Jones' off field problems, you are missing out on a key ingredient that led to the downfall of William Green.Shame on you, Patoons.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I have openly stated that I think the lovefest surrounding JJones is way too great for my liking. As I see it, Jones had a great stretch by having an insane workload which won't happen again this year. He was on track for almost 500 touches which no back will actually reach.A lot of that was due to having very few options on offense (injuries to RB and WR personnel) and a QB controversy due to some poor options at QB. At the end of the year, JJ WAS the offense, but I think the team is not as one dimensional as some are anticipating. Also, JJ racked up some nice totals against less than stellar competition, and across an entire season his numbers should level off a fair amount when going up against both solid, average, and weak defenses.Combining better team health, better RB options, and some stability at QB, in conjunction with what I would identify as a bit of an injury history, I don't see Jones having much value based on where he is getting drafted. In one of my leagues, he was a Top 10 pick overall (redraft), which was a bit of a reach IMO.Yes, Parcells likes to run the ball, and yes Dallas should be better on defense. But Parcells also likes to throw the ball and the defense may not be phenomenal. Similarly, the offense still is medicore, and I don't see the 'Boys putting up big numbers on offense. In essence, I don't see the 2005 Cowboys as the 2004 Steelers.Add it all up, and I see around 300 carries, 1,200 yards, 200 receiving yards, and around 6-8 TD, less if he gets banged up.That will probably make his production better than Willie Green's. but I suspect Jones' total points scored will be closer to Green's (136 points) than Priest Holmes total (373 points) in 2002.
I am in no way implying that LT or Emmitt=JJ. All I'm saying is that people are looking to find a stud in the making. Curtis Martin isn't all that shabby himself. Even to compare him to JJ is an extreme IMO.To address Chessmaster- Green's downfall began in the preseason where he performed horrendously. This was before his "off the field issues".
I find it interesting that no one else out here even shares a similar view. Is it that rare that someone will go against the grain and not buy into the hype?
I'm not saying that I don't buy into hype, becuase I surely do. I understand the argument for him, I just don't buy in on JJ.
To add, there was very little talk against Green during that offseason, until preseason hit. I was just scrolling through the posts that summer.
I agree 100%. All of these guys are getting over-hyped. However, I think S-Jax is the better of the three. Bell is also in a messy situation and not even guaranteed the #1 spot at this point, but I'd rather not get into all that at this point.
Any Willie Green ADP info from 2003 startup dynasties out there?
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I don't see any similarity in them. None, aside from the fact that they both technically play running back in the NFL.Green's game was supposed to be predicated on strong between the tackles running. No one ever said he had great vision nor top-tier quickness to the outside. His balance was average at best and he was never utilized as much of a pass-catcher.Conversly, Jones game is based on getting him the ball in open spots nad letting him make things happen. A swing pass here, a draw play there, melded with strong between the tackles running has made JJ a success.I encourage people to think outside of the box and go against the grain if there is reason to do so. I just don't see it in this case.
Chessmaster
Footballguy
While I appreciate your effort to go against the grain, Patoons, I think this is a very flawed argument. I am of the opinion that William Green's main problem has been his off-the-field issues.His dissapointing play is directly linked to the lack of talent on the Browns, so I don't think you can blame Green for that totally.I agree that Julius Jones is very much an unknown at this point. He could very well turn out to be a huge bust for his ADP this year. Or he might not. But, given that a large part of William Green's problems have been his issues away from football, I think any comparison at this point is pretty egregious.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
i was reading a stat in the past week that said jones got the 4th most rushing yards in nfl history over his first seven games... dickerson was #1, i think george rogers was #2 & earl campbell #3... didn't recall seeing that particular stat before & thought it might be worth passing along.now part of his monster yardage accumulation was linked to his heavy workload, which could (should) be reduced to about 20-22 "touches" a game, including passes. but still... that is pretty exclusive company to be able to say he was #4 in the history of the league with all the RBs that have ever played the position.the attempt to link jones to green is a little jumbled in my mind... for one think, i'm not sure green couldn't have been a decent player if he had landed in, say, KC instead of CLE (in an alternate, parallel universe where priest went to CLE). browns had poor QB, WR, defense, coaching... so events conspired to seal his fate, in a manner of speaking.that said, green is ponderous compared to jones... he is better if he breaks through the line, gets up to full speed & can overpower DBs with a nasty stiff arm.i can't speak for others on the board. i am high on jones personally, not due to board hype, but what i have seen of him playing. he is much more sudden than green... suddenness having to do with burst, explosiveness & accelleration. he has outstanding stop & start ability, change of direction, superior elusiveness in the open field. he supposedly lost a little weight, but he was about same listed weight, i think a little shorter & more compact. he seems to have better contact balance than green & doesn't go down as easy.his 4.4 speed is better than green & comes in handy when he breaks into the clear. expect a few long TDs in '05.
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I'm not talking a comparison between styles, more so a comparison based on performance and role situation on their respective teams. Also, Green was utilized in the passing attack much more than it seems you believe. Yes, comparing his stats to a back on a passing oriented team would show you Green wasn't utilized, but he was the #2 in receiving stats his final season averaging 10/rec on a run heavy team.
Their strengths following both of their rookie seasons were, without a question, different. I do, however, see parallels between their rookie year performance and the related hype.
creeps1313
Footballguy
Well, for those of us who watch and pull for Notre Dame, there has been LOTS of evidence of off the field problems...ie getting kicked out of school outright. Of course things seem to have changed and he put in his time and effort to get back into school, back onto the team, and eventually being drafted by Bill. I got to watch him a lot, and I have always been impressed by his ability. I love this kid and think he is the real deal. Anthony Thomas is simply for insurance, and barber is simply because you can never have to many RBs. Jones does not equal Green.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I think the intent of the post was to consider if Jones will underachieve like William Green, not to literally compare him to Green. No one is suggesting that Jones will have off-field issues and on-field style of play really is not what the poster is after.Bottom line, I think the point of the thead is whether Jones' hype = great production or disappointment for 2005.
This is what I was looking for - someone to back up with some stats.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
there are perhaps other ways we can discuss the issue...but to me any discussion of whether jones will overachieve or underachieve is inextricably linked with his ability, his skill set.based on patoons mssg, i honestly couldn't tell if he has seen him or not... it was my way of answering that i wasn't high on jones just because i was succumbing to board hype.it is not exactly clear to me on what basis we might discuss jones' prospects for this year... in general... or specifically vis-a-vis what green did the year after his big second half... without characterizing his ability, talent, skills... & having some sense of them.even if he wasn't looking for a point-by-point comparison with green per se... it would still seem appropriate to discuss jones' skill set in this context.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
As for those that feel Dallas offense > Cleveland offense . . .The 02 Browns (Green's first year) had 3,665 passing yards, 27 passing TD, 1,615 rushing yards, and 10 rushing TD.The 04 Cowboys (Jones' first year) had 3,636 passing yards, 19 passing TD, 1,773 rushing yards, and 14 rushing TD.The Browns obviously had a plan to pass the ball into the endzone and totaled 37 TD to the 'Boys 33. Obviously Cleveland went south from that point on, but I for one am not sold on the Dallas offense improving by leaps and bounds.While it's nice to think that Dallas will score more and Jones will get some nice opportunities at the goalline, the team has not shown that it consistently can score TD in the red zone.
Double Agent
Footballguy
I'm cool with being a bit hesitant to throw a guy into the top 10 who has only played 8 games regardless of how good they are. However, my real problem here lies within the William Green analysis. He is referred to as a bust but as many have pointed out he was a bust because he didn't stay on the field for various reasons, none of which were because he sucked. He only played the first 7 games of 2003 and before he "screwed the pooch" with his personal issues he was on pace for close to 1300 yds.I'll take 1300 yds from a guy whose ADP puts him somewhere early in the 2nd round of my draft.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
Maybe you like the 2003 stats for Dallas better . . .3347/17 passing paired up with 1999/11 rushing. Still not what I would call "robust"--they ranked 12th in rushing yards and 20th in rushing TD.
And if you are pointing to injuries for their 2004 performance level, then you are actually siding with the argument that Jones had such a heavy workload due to the rest of the team being banged up.
Again, I don't think Jones will bomb, but I don't see Dallas scoring a ton of points. Some people are giving Jones 15 TD in their projections which to me looks high . . .
Family Matters
Footballguy
I guess if you try hard enough you can see similarities between Eli & Payton too. But I think I'll stick with Eli. And JJ.
DoctorFantasy
Footballguy
I agree with this assessment 100%
doomsdaydoc
Footballguy
This is a bit nutty. Julius should perform very admirably next season. There are several reasons for the failure of Willie Green- he had drug and behavior issues. His offensive line was awful. Julius is playing behind a very decent line. Parcells was wise to draft Barber and sign Thomas as we all know that there are very few backs that can run 30 times a game and injuries to that position are frequent. I expect Jones to have between 1200 and 1300 yards and 8 or so TDs- with a few going to Thomas. I think JOnes would be a very good RB2 in most leagues.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Let's try to explain the reason William Green is even being mentioned in conjunction with Julius Jones.In 2002, William Green ended the year with 834 total yards and 5 TD over his last 7 games.In 2004, Julius Jones ended the year with 898 total yards and 7 TD over his last 7 games.THAT'S where the similartity is been drawn.AFTER that hot finish, Green was getting draft in the Top 15-20 in many drafts for 2003. In that year, Green went on to average 87 yards per game but had just one TD in 7 games.So the question is whether Jones will also fail to live up to his expectations for 2005.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
while on the subject of DAL vs. CLE passing game... browns did seem to do well in '02... that was the year (his rookie season) green had the blistering second half.in the following year of 2003, when green didn't do well (& he wasn't doing well even b4 getting stabbed by his wife & indulging in the ganj)... CLE passing stats were about 3,100 yards, 17 TDs & 18 INTs... so there did seem to be a significant dropoff compared to the prior season... maybe the lackluster passing game could be viewed as a dependent variable that impacted negatively on green's rushing stats.* edit/add - using the '04 season as a yardstick, only 8 teams had less than 3,100 passing yards... only 3 teams had less than 17 passing TDs. all in all, pretty bad by most definitions.** edit/add II - another comparison of the situation, as opposed to the players... taking a quick look at jason's faceoff, he notes that parcell's historically likes to pound the ball to the tune of about 500 rushing attempts+. not sure if he mentioned it, but i would add that if he has a talented RB i think he is generally not a RBBC guy. i guess this may be what is currently in dispute, though... whether jones is a talented RB. 
jason projects 300-320 carries (that would leave couple hundred for a-train & the rookie barber). unless there is some reason to think he will drastically fall off, he should come in with more than the 142 rushing attempts green logged in his soph year.
jason projects 300-320 carries (that would leave couple hundred for a-train & the rookie barber). unless there is some reason to think he will drastically fall off, he should come in with more than the 142 rushing attempts green logged in his soph year.
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to me willie green's problem wasnt talent, it was the ability to stay healthy and opportunity. insteand of comparing the backs, compare the teams. cleveland ran a gimmick version of the west coast offense, and sucked at it. their horrible defense didnt keep games competitive, and thus, willie green was never really in position to do much, when he was healthy. plus, thier oline suckeddallas, upgraded their bad defense, has a conservative running offense, bill parcells has a track record of making good on rbs (joe morris, curtis martin, o.anderson), a decent/better oline than clevelands. and by watching both play, and not even looking at #s, there is no compairison
doomsdaydoc
Footballguy
Then maybe we ought to put Kevin JOnes in the same group. He had a great end to the season. Maybe he will be a bust this year too.
This is precisely the reason why I believe Jones will underperform expectations drawn from the hype this offseason and precisely the purpose of this post. I am not comparing style, off the field activities, etc.I believe that the same thing will happen to JJ, whether it be defenses focusing in on him more or not...
There is only two guys on here that agree? Very surprising.
nathanbalboa
Footballguy
I'm not sure that Jones will be a bust, but the point is interesting. It's important to remember that there have been guys that everyone's loved (Green, Barlow, etc) and then end up being major disappointments. I expect Jones to have a very solid year in Dallas, but I wouldn't be suprised if at least 1-2 of the young, unproven batch of studs (McGahee, Jones, Jackson, Brown, Williams, Benson) are disappointments.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If by "bust" you mean underperforming vs draft position, then yes, I say the same thing for Kevin Jones. Read the Player Spotlight on KJones to get my perspective on guys that have hot streaks in a small sample size. Kevin Jones is going north or south of the turn in redrafts. Like JJones, I think Detorit has shown that they struggle in the red zone and have a hard time getting 6 and settle for 3. Again, the issue is not how well he will do but how well he will do compared to where he is drafted.
To be a dominant fantasy back and really climb into the ELITE rankings (say Top 5), a RB needs both yardage AND TDs. I think Jones might get the yardage, but I don't see him approaching the 15-25 TD that the heavy hitters will get.
And by extension, I would say McGahee will have a hard time living up to his hype too--as people have a tendency to simply extrapolate his production over a full season to come up with his 2005 totals.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Your entire basis of your argument is that their stat lines look the same and you readily do NOT take in to account their individual talents and abilities?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I have taken heat on Bell, but I do not see him as someone that falls in this category for a completely different reason.Detroit and Dallas have not been environments conducive to elite RB performance in recent years. (Yes, Detroit had Sanders and Dallas had Smith but that was quite awhile ago.)
Denver has had plug and play RB for 10+ years now. Denver has been a Top 3 running productivity team for many, many years. IMO, Bell by default could easily be a Top 3-5 RB this year (given his health and status as the #1 RB). We already KNOW that Denver can cultivate Top 5 numbers.
We have NOT seen Detroit or Dallas produce at that level, so IMO Bell has a higher upside than either of the Jones (based on environment--talent level may be another story).
That's a large part of the basis. I suppose talents and abilities do come into play ultimately, but I simply see similar success in similar situations.
Your entire basis of your argument is that their stat lines look the same and you readily do NOT take in to account their individual talents and abilities?
Clearly if I believed Jones to be an elite NFL RB, I would not be making this argument.
he will underperform cause willie green did? why bring willie green into the mix, and then state that you arent compating the 2? what hype is there? he is ranked 12-15 by most. thats hype? where should he be?
he is the starting running back on a team with a conservative offense, great coach who has a track record of making rbs, will get all the goal line work, and had some very nice games when he was healthy. thats hype?
hype is taking a per game average of his starts, carrying it over 16 weeks, and stating that j.jones is a top 5 pick.
who is doing that?
That's a large part of the basis. I suppose talents and abilities do come into play ultimately, but I simply see similar success in similar situations.
Your entire basis of your argument is that their stat lines look the same and you readily do NOT take in to account their individual talents and abilities?
Clearly if I believed Jones to be an elite NFL RB, I would not be making this argument.
there is a difference between talent and opportuntiy. p.holmes is an elite nfl rb, how did he do in baltimore? opportunity knocked and ....J.jones is in a situation to go 1500/15, willie green was in a situation to bust, not that you are comparing the 2 though
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