Julius Thomas week 1...starting him with confidence? (1 Viewer)

[Clifford]

JT's emergence has to help Moreno, because somebody's got to block

His blocking got much better throughout the game. The commentators talked about it extensively and showed several replays showing adequate blocking later in the game.

I agree, but if he's out running routes, he's not blocking

True, and quite obvious that Moreno is the RB1 on this team and we shouldn't expect that to change.

 

[FlapJacks]

It's only one game people. Don't get too excited.

If you cannot see what his athletic ability brings to the table, together with the fact that a linebacker cannot cover him, then you have an analysis problem.

I don't think it's an analysis problem, I think it's an options/coverage problem.

Denvers offense will be not unlike other explosive offenses with lots of tools (GBP/NOS/NEP). There will be up weeks and down weeks based on who's covered / doubled by whom. This takes nothing away from Thomas... just saying that this week's coming out party will plant him further on other teams' radars.

IMO Expect Manning to take what's given to him between Orange Julius/Welker/Decker/DeyThom/backfield. I wouldn't pencil him in for elite production week in and week out just yet.

Again... I own him. I'm very optimistic as well. Just trying to slow things down just a touch in here

Outside of Calvin ADP and the like, who gives elite production every week?

he's a TE. anything over 700 7 and I'm excited.

 

[mbuehner]

Lets keep in mind the Raven's defense looked like a second half preseason squad last night. Not always gonna be this easy.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Decker gets pretty over-rated in these discussions because he gets lumped in with DT and Welker. He doesn't really belong with those guys IMO.

If JT isn't good enough to take some targets from Decker, and probably surpass him, then he's not worth all of this hype. I'm not holding JT hoping that the #4 target is good enough to use - I'm holding him hoping that he's better than the #4 target.

Started him in a dynasty league where I'm waiting on Gronk....along with Demaryius.

As an aside, Decker had a brutal, brutal game.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Lets keep in mind the Raven's defense looked like a second half preseason squad last night. Not always gonna be this easy.

They did a good job of alternating blown coverage on Julius and Welker, and just not being able to cover Demaryius.

 

[bill bates hits hard]

When John Gruden starts calling him "Orange Julius" can you guys please remember it came from little old me? I already started a MySpace page for him already. Plus, Already dropped a ton of money in silkscreening T-shirts last night and my fingers are stained with die. So at least give this to me.

 

[irish eyes]

If his blocking doesnt improve massively, he may find his a@@ on the bench. If games arent blow outs this will become magnified.

 

[FlapJacks]

If his blocking doesnt improve massively, he may find his a@@ on the bench. If games arent blow outs this will become magnified.

 

[Amused to Death]

If his blocking doesnt improve massively, he may find his a@@ on the bench. If games arent blow outs this will become magnified.

Is this an Anarchy99 alias?

 

[Pantherz]

So what has this realistically done for J Thomas value right now. Most took him as a flyer late in their draft. One way to think about his value is where would he go in a draft today. 4th round? 7th round? 3rd round? What is a realistic goal if you trade him now?

Are you really all in on him? Then trade away your Graham, Gronkowski, Jason Witten, or Vernon Davis.

Will it take another week or two for possible trade partners to believe enough to give something decent? Or is his value as high as it will get today?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Lets keep in mind the Raven's defense looked like a second half preseason squad last night. Not always gonna be this easy.

yeah Im sure Oakland SD Jax and KC defense's are better.

 

[steveski]

They are playing the Giants next week which is another juicy matchup. If he blows up again next week, trade him then. You'll find someone that will be willing to pay like they're getting Gronk or Graham.

 

[cstu]

When John Gruden starts calling him "Orange Julius" can you guys please remember it came from little old me? I already started a MySpace page for him already. Plus, Already dropped a ton of money in silkscreening T-shirts last night and my fingers are stained with die. So at least give this to me.

He's been called Orange Julius since he was drafted.

 

[shadyridr]

So what has this realistically done for J Thomas value right now. Most took him as a flyer late in their draft. One way to think about his value is where would he go in a draft today. 4th round? 7th round? 3rd round? What is a realistic goal if you trade him now?

Are you really all in on him? Then trade away your Graham, Gronkowski, Jason Witten, or Vernon Davis.

Will it take another week or two for possible trade partners to believe enough to give something decent? Or is his value as high as it will get today?

Hed go in the Cook/Cameron/Finley tier...7th-9th round IMO

 

[Sinn Fein]

They are playing the Giants next week which is another orange julius matchup. If he blows up again next week, trade him then. You'll find someone that will be willing to pay like they're getting Gronk or Graham.

fyp

 

[Man of Zen]

So what has this realistically done for J Thomas value right now. Most took him as a flyer late in their draft. One way to think about his value is where would he go in a draft today. 4th round? 7th round? 3rd round? What is a realistic goal if you trade him now?

Are you really all in on him? Then trade away your Graham, Gronkowski, Jason Witten, or Vernon Davis.

Will it take another week or two for possible trade partners to believe enough to give something decent? Or is his value as high as it will get today?

Hed go in the Cook/Cameron/Finley tier...7th-9th round IMO

Saw him falling after Cook but before Finley a couple times while watching others' money drafts late last week. Can't imagine this didn't bump him. Betting he gets around Gonzo value if you've got a weekend draft.

 

[grtwhtsk]

I love Thomas, but am tempering my expectations as to his value. They showed some brutal poor blocking on replays yesterday (though there was one nasty good one), and that could affect his PT once they get Dreesen back.

 

[shadyridr]

So what has this realistically done for J Thomas value right now. Most took him as a flyer late in their draft. One way to think about his value is where would he go in a draft today. 4th round? 7th round? 3rd round? What is a realistic goal if you trade him now?

Are you really all in on him? Then trade away your Graham, Gronkowski, Jason Witten, or Vernon Davis.

Will it take another week or two for possible trade partners to believe enough to give something decent? Or is his value as high as it will get today?

Hed go in the Cook/Cameron/Finley tier...7th-9th round IMO

Saw him falling after Cook but before Finley a couple times while watching others' money drafts late last week. Can't imagine this didn't bump him. Betting he gets around Gonzo value if you've got a weekend draft.

What? I had two drafts late last week. He went undrafted in one and in the 16th round in the other.

 

[[icon]]

I already started a MySpace page for him already.

2003 called...

 

[bill bates hits hard]

I already started a MySpace page for him already.

2003 called...

it was joke serious sal

 

[[icon]]

This is why you should have drafted one of the WRs AND JT. :hawkscreech:

While I don't normally like hitching my wagon too hard to any one offense, I did it frequently this year in DEN and NEP.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I already started a MySpace page for him already.

2003 called...

it was joke serious sal

Yeah, he likes fishing... but gets irked when others do it.

Imagine that.

 

[Breesisdaman]

I was one of the 8% in Yahoo that started him. Gronk was on my Bench. Not so sure about the confidence part but I'm confident now, does that count?

 

[[icon]]

I already started a MySpace page for him already.

2003 called...

it was joke serious sal

Ah was gonna say. Well played

 

[Man of Zen]

So what has this realistically done for J Thomas value right now. Most took him as a flyer late in their draft. One way to think about his value is where would he go in a draft today. 4th round? 7th round? 3rd round? What is a realistic goal if you trade him now?

Are you really all in on him? Then trade away your Graham, Gronkowski, Jason Witten, or Vernon Davis.

Will it take another week or two for possible trade partners to believe enough to give something decent? Or is his value as high as it will get today?

Hed go in the Cook/Cameron/Finley tier...7th-9th round IMO

Saw him falling after Cook but before Finley a couple times while watching others' money drafts late last week. Can't imagine this didn't bump him. Betting he gets around Gonzo value if you've got a weekend draft.

What? I had two drafts late last week. He went undrafted in one and in the 16th round in the other.

Once the Broncs anointed him a starter, he started rocketing from what I saw. It was definitely pick 127 in one league, which I only remember because it's my house number.

 

[[icon]]

Yeah, he likes fishing... but gets irked when others do it.

Imagine that.

Irked?

You can spit that hook out anytime now. It's been like 12 hours

 

[MoveToSkypager]

When John Gruden starts calling him "Orange Julius" can you guys please remember it came from little old me? I already started a MySpace page for him already. Plus, Already dropped a ton of money in silkscreening T-shirts last night and my fingers are stained with die. So at least give this to me.

No one should ever call him that, if it means anything to you.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I already started a MySpace page for him already.

2003 called...

it was joke serious sal

Ah was gonna say. Well played

Now if only we can get everyone in the shark pool to do the same. What fun that will be.

 

[[icon]]

What? I had two drafts late last week. He went undrafted in one and in the 16th round in the other.

Once the Broncs anointed him a starter, he started rocketing from what I saw. It was definitely pick 127 in one league, which I only remember because it's my house number.

Took him at pick 180 in a 16 teamer I had last weekend because I really wanted him to compliment Gronk.

 

[shadyridr]

What? I had two drafts late last week. He went undrafted in one and in the 16th round in the other.

Once the Broncs anointed him a starter, he started rocketing from what I saw. It was definitely pick 127 in one league, which I only remember because it's my house number.

Took him at pick 180 in a 16 teamer I had last weekend because I really wanted him to compliment Gronk.

yeah so that would be round 15 in a 12 teamer

 

[Man of Zen]

ESPN free draft JT current-status check draft #1 for the day.

12-teams: drafted at #74 overall.

Free leagues don't mean much, of course, but it's a data point. I think you might underestimate both the power of a week one surge, and the zeal of the Peyton Manning fanclub.

 

[shadyridr]

ESPN free draft JT current-status check draft #1 for the day.

12-teams: drafted at #74 overall.

Free leagues don't mean much, of course, but it's a data point. I think you might underestimate both the power of a week one surge, and the zeal of the Peyton Manning fanclub.

6th round. I said 7-9

 

[Tackling Dummies]

So, can we drop the "4th in line for targets" stuff? Single covered and open? Peyton will hit you.

 

[shadyridr]

So, can we drop the "4th in line for targets" stuff? Single covered and open? Peyton will hit you.

Youre the only one bringing it up now

 

[bill bates hits hard]

So, can we drop the "4th in line for targets" stuff? Single covered and open? Peyton will hit you.

With the receivers drawing coverage Julius was open down the middle the whole night. First half the ravens were on top of D Thomas and stifled him. It's clear, Peyton loosened up the defense with Julius in the first half. Second-half the ravens tried to adjust to Julius and Peyton hit D Thomas over and over. It's going to be like this all season. Julius does not need 7 to 8 receptions to have a big game. With three receptions he could rack up YAC and a red zone look/s. top 5 TE right now.

 

[Man of Zen]

Second draft, clearly frustrated that he was scooped on Peyton Manning (who went first overall, leading the guy who took AP second to yell "LOL IDIOT!"), JT and DT go to team "Hernandez's Hitmen" at the 12/13 wrap.

I think that one might prove to be an outlier. Manning guy added Welker and the Seahawks D at 2/3. So yeah, free ESPN leagues...

 

[The Jerk]

ESPN free draft JT current-status check draft #1 for the day.

12-teams: drafted at #74 overall.

Free leagues don't mean much, of course, but it's a data point. I think you might underestimate both the power of a week one surge, and the zeal of the Peyton Manning fanclub.

6th round. I said 7-9

7.02, so you're actually spot on.

 

[Man of Zen]

ESPN free draft JT current-status check draft #1 for the day.

12-teams: drafted at #74 overall.

Free leagues don't mean much, of course, but it's a data point. I think you might underestimate both the power of a week one surge, and the zeal of the Peyton Manning fanclub.

6th round. I said 7-9

7.02, so you're actually spot on.

For comparison's sake, that was 1 round after Gonzo, two before Cook and Olsen, three before Finley.

That draft seemed mostly sane. The other one, not so much.

 

[rizzler]

Bronc's WRs will always draw the most coverage.

JT landed in a goldmine. He's a monster, a complete mismatch, and his WR weapons are as, or more dangerous than him.

I dont wanna get wild, so Ill say top 10 finish - but his upside is top 3 w gronk and graham

 

[msudaisy26]

What kind of drafts did you guys have that youd even consider starting this guy?

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

I cannot stop laughing at this

Get over it, jeez. Ive already eaten my crow.Last time I make a comment on a player I didnt see play. The kid is a beast and I was wrong. Gonna try and bid on him in one league and hes already drafted in another.

I call for all other Footballguys to lay off shadyridr. It takes a man to admit when he is wrong and he manned up. Nice Job.

Agreed - He can now get on the JT bandwagon...

I think this performance now makes Dreessen and Tamme useless even at full health.

JT also had a pretty decent game blocking which hopefully means he gets 98% of the offensive snaps

I will admit that I only seen the first half, but his blocking was horrible in that half.

 

[Sweetness_34]

What kind of drafts did you guys have that youd even consider starting this guy?

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

I cannot stop laughing at this

Get over it, jeez. Ive already eaten my crow.Last time I make a comment on a player I didnt see play. The kid is a beast and I was wrong. Gonna try and bid on him in one league and hes already drafted in another.

Nice prediction genius .... Or is it Jenny ###?

 

[mbuehner]

Lets keep in mind the Raven's defense looked like a second half preseason squad last night. Not always gonna be this easy.

yeah Im sure Oakland SD Jax and KC defense's are better.

Tough to be worse.

Manning had no pressure most of the night. Everybody knows if you don't pressure manning he'll eat you alive. Lets not think the Broncos have reinvented the passing game here. Everybody gets fed when you throw 6 tutties and almost 500 yards. Temper expectations with Manning playing at his usual excellent level- 300y 3tds.

That being said, JT doesnt need to score two tds a game to be a top TE. I just wouldn't go selling Gronk and Graham assuming he's going to be the new top 3 TE. There is some uncertainty here about how much Manning looks to JT in a 'normal' game under more difficult conditions. We just dont know.

 

[Phantom Knight]

I love Thomas, but am tempering my expectations as to his value. They showed some brutal poor blocking on replays yesterday (though there was one nasty good one), and that could affect his PT once they get Dreesen back.

I missed parts of the game, but I was underwhelmed with his blocks that I did see. He didn't seem to engage with more than half-hearted temerity. If the one nasty, good block was when he blindsided Suggs, I personally don't find that changes my opinion as it wasn't a true man-on-man block.

That said, no I am NOT trading JT!

 

[FlapJacks]

Lets keep in mind the Raven's defense looked like a second half preseason squad last night. Not always gonna be this easy.

yeah Im sure Oakland SD Jax and KC defense's are better.

Tough to be worse.

Manning had no pressure most of the night. Everybody knows if you don't pressure manning he'll eat you alive. Lets not think the Broncos have reinvented the passing game here. Everybody gets fed when you throw 6 tutties and almost 500 yards. Temper expectations with Manning playing at his usual excellent level- 300y 3tds.

That being said, JT doesnt need to score two tds a game to be a top TE. I just wouldn't go selling Gronk and Graham assuming he's going to be the new top 3 TE. There is some uncertainty here about how much Manning looks to JT in a 'normal' game under more difficult conditions. We just dont know.

This is the best receiving corps Manning's ever had. He's never had a WR as physically gifted as DT. Decker is better than guys like Collie, Garcon, etc than Manning made relevant. Add in Welker is an amazing and still under-rated player. Add in a physical guy like JT .

holy crap, how do you cover all of those guys?

most teams have one or maybe two targets that you have to gameplan to stop. This is every secondary's nightmare.

He's not throwing 7 every week, but it looks like this offense could be huge this year

 

[Man of Zen]

Lets keep in mind the Raven's defense looked like a second half preseason squad last night. Not always gonna be this easy.

yeah Im sure Oakland SD Jax and KC defense's are better.

Tough to be worse.

Manning had no pressure most of the night. Everybody knows if you don't pressure manning he'll eat you alive. Lets not think the Broncos have reinvented the passing game here. Everybody gets fed when you throw 6 tutties and almost 500 yards. Temper expectations with Manning playing at his usual excellent level- 300y 3tds.

That being said, JT doesnt need to score two tds a game to be a top TE. I just wouldn't go selling Gronk and Graham assuming he's going to be the new top 3 TE. There is some uncertainty here about how much Manning looks to JT in a 'normal' game under more difficult conditions. We just dont know.

Decker is better than guys like Collie, Garcon, etc than Manning made relevant.

And that's where you lost me.

I have no doubt 32 GM's out of 32 would take Garcon over Decker in a heartbeat.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Lets keep in mind the Raven's defense looked like a second half preseason squad last night. Not always gonna be this easy.

yeah Im sure Oakland SD Jax and KC defense's are better.

Tough to be worse.

Manning had no pressure most of the night. Everybody knows if you don't pressure manning he'll eat you alive. Lets not think the Broncos have reinvented the passing game here. Everybody gets fed when you throw 6 tutties and almost 500 yards. Temper expectations with Manning playing at his usual excellent level- 300y 3tds.

That being said, JT doesnt need to score two tds a game to be a top TE. I just wouldn't go selling Gronk and Graham assuming he's going to be the new top 3 TE. There is some uncertainty here about how much Manning looks to JT in a 'normal' game under more difficult conditions. We just dont know.

Decker is better than guys like Collie, Garcon, etc than Manning made relevant.

And that's where you lost me.

I have no doubt 32 GM's out of 32 would take Garcon over Decker in a heartbeat.

Thats where you lost me. Decker is younger, bigger, faster, stronger and has all ready produced a better season than Garcon ever has.

With that said...you feel 32/32 would take garcon in a heartbeat?

 

[fantasycurse42]

Lets keep in mind the Raven's defense looked like a second half preseason squad last night. Not always gonna be this easy.

yeah Im sure Oakland SD Jax and KC defense's are better.

Tough to be worse.Manning had no pressure most of the night. Everybody knows if you don't pressure manning he'll eat you alive. Lets not think the Broncos have reinvented the passing game here. Everybody gets fed when you throw 6 tutties and almost 500 yards. Temper expectations with Manning playing at his usual excellent level- 300y 3tds.

That being said, JT doesnt need to score two tds a game to be a top TE. I just wouldn't go selling Gronk and Graham assuming he's going to be the new top 3 TE. There is some uncertainty here about how much Manning looks to JT in a 'normal' game under more difficult conditions. We just dont know.

Decker is better than guys like Collie, Garcon, etc than Manning made relevant.

And that's where you lost me.

I have no doubt 32 GM's out of 32 would take Garcon over Decker in a heartbeat.

Thats where you lost me. Decker is younger, bigger, faster, stronger and has all ready produced a better season than Garcon ever has.With that said...you feel 32/32 would take garcon in a heartbeat?

I'd take Garçon - no way he's faster then Pierre either... This is his best WR corps, but don't forget he did have the Wayne/Harrison duo which wasn't like a pile of crap.

 

[shadyridr]

So whats this guys value now? In the irony of all ironies I need a TE in one league and would like to trade for him. RB2? RB3? WR2?

 

[Tackling Dummies]

Will not trade, too much upside on the table.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Perceived market value with likely fluctuate greatly from league to league. Some will think it was a fluke/get stuck on name value where as others may believe he's the next Jimmy Graham. I'd like to think it's somewhere in between and will proceed operating under that assumption.

I don't care if he never has another game like this again all year. All I want to see is consistent looks/targets from Peyton.