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Julius Thomas week 1...starting him with confidence? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter prgromek
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pantherclub
Footballguy
I think you have to start him especially given with what he did in the preseason. I dont see a ton of risk in seeing what happens week 1.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
FWIW... http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=688467
(I figured I'd get hassled by the one-thread-per-player police if I posted that here.)
(I figured I'd get hassled by the one-thread-per-player police if I posted that here.)
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
I expect the running game to struggle against the Balt DL and with the RBBC mess Denver has. So, Denver will need to pass. Also Baltimore's best CB is back from injury (from last year) so lots more short passing....so Welker and Thomas should get targets
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Not with confidence - he's my backup to Gronk...
It's either him or the waivers which consists of Mercedes Lewis, celek, Ed Dickson, etc... I'm not dropping anyone on my team to grab someone like that - kinda stuck with him.
It's either him or the waivers which consists of Mercedes Lewis, celek, Ed Dickson, etc... I'm not dropping anyone on my team to grab someone like that - kinda stuck with him.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I have no choice after witnessing one of the most epic FFPC TE runs in the history of fantasy football. Low floor, high ceiling. I can live with it.
Realistically, we're looking at a low floor, mediocre ceiling for week 1. That said, I think I'm starting him over Fred Davis and Brandon Pettigrew in one of my leagues. Benching him for Jared Cook in another.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Julius Thomas week 1...starting him with confidence?Easily.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Rookie_Whisperer
Footballguy
I'm not sure how you can start a guy with no history of production with "confidence", especially on a team with 3 very good WRs vying for targets. You really have to wait a week and watch here unless you are desparate.
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BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Easily. You dont have to see history to start someone you feel assured about.
If you dont feel assured about him then that's a different story, even if he has a history.
Rookie_Whisperer
Footballguy
Sure, as long as you don't play for money, then it's no big deal. Go with your gut
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I was 50-50 between starting him or Rudolph, however Rudolph isn't on my roster anymore.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I can't exactly say "with confidence." Because I sort of look back at how awesome Tamme wasn't in last year's offense, then add a receiver who's been known to get his share of targets to the mix
But I'm in the same boat as the guy above, in that I took Gronk early, so couldn't rationalize taking another TE till way late. Sudfeld went nice and early in that one, since it was right after a Matthew Berry puff piece. So JT it was. And is.
I've got a lot more confidence starting Cook in my other, but what can ya do.
But I'm in the same boat as the guy above, in that I took Gronk early, so couldn't rationalize taking another TE till way late. Sudfeld went nice and early in that one, since it was right after a Matthew Berry puff piece. So JT it was. And is.
I've got a lot more confidence starting Cook in my other, but what can ya do.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
1.5PPR for TEs where you can start up to three TEs (2 flex). There must have been a lot of people new to the format because everyone was reaching like hell. It's too bad TE12 of last year in this format averaged the same PPG as WR35. The dude I'm playing this week has Gresham slotted in over Cobb.
But yeah, I'm "stuck" with Julius Thomas.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
The kind where I needed a backup TE late, because my starter is on the shelf.
When it came time to pick him, it was either him or Fred Davis. I took Thomas since my thinking is that if both guys go 60/1 or something, Fred Davis is still going to draw yawns, while Peyton junkies will come at me waving fists of hundred dollar bills as they see the next Dallas Clark.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I've got a gronk and I really didn't want to roster 3 TEs... I could've grabbed like celek Dickson Mercedes Lewis etc, but this guy has a similar floor and higher ceilining.
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BuzzCagney
Footballguy
i got gronk too. so it looks like julius gets the start. it's going to be the perfect ogletree moment.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Going with Marty B over him.
adrenaline
Footballguy
I will be starting him at times this season, just not week 1 vs the Ravens.
DropKick
Footballguy
To be honest, the TE position took a lot of hits since last year. Hernandez went nuclear. Miller, Pitta, and Keller got hurt. Gronk is dinged up. Gresham may be neutralized by Eifert; and Fleener by Allen. Myers, Bennett and Cook changed teams (although that may benefit Cook). Gonzo, Gates and Witten are a year older. Celek is likely lost in a new offense.
You have to take some shots. I'll take a guy with Manning chucking the ball.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Tough to take an ffrookie serious. Regardless.....Denver te's accounted for 98 receptions and almost 1000 yards. While I know welker wasn't there and may take some of those receptions..... Not sure I would call that a wasteland.
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PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
Some people play in dynasty leagues where they owned guys like Dennis Pitta, Aaron Hernandez or Dustin Keller.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
In a 16 team league rostering Pitta and a few other meh options, Thomas is a weekly toss up to start.
pantherclub
Footballguy
in a ppr league I bet he scores 6-9 points
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
C'mon now. Dont be silly.
Week 1 preseason saw him with D Thomas, Welker and Decker all in the starting line up against Seattle of all teams. He had 3 catches in the first quarter.
Doubtingthomas
Footballguy
It wil be interesting to see how the no huddle offense is used in Denver. If they do use it a lot I can see them getting maybe 70 or 80 plays off in a game. That alone will help Thomas's chances at getting the looks you need to be a productive TE. I would be confident to start him and look for top 12 production out of him, but to many other options in the offense for elite or say top 5 production.
Old article from last year but talks a bit about how important the TE was to Peyton last year...
"So much for us, in what we do, is how do they play Tamme," Manning said. "Some teams treat him like a receiver and some teams treat him like a tight end, so you kind of find that out, see how they handle him in the formation. He kind of makes them, the way he plays and how he plays, have that discussion and we see where that takes us."
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_22255444/broncos-peyton-manning-explains-why-te-jacob-tamme
^ I understand that somewhat contradicts a lot of the speculation that the Broncos offense has changed to be more WR heavy. Still, hard for a Tiger to change his stripes?
"So much for us, in what we do, is how do they play Tamme," Manning said. "Some teams treat him like a receiver and some teams treat him like a tight end, so you kind of find that out, see how they handle him in the formation. He kind of makes them, the way he plays and how he plays, have that discussion and we see where that takes us."
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_22255444/broncos-peyton-manning-explains-why-te-jacob-tamme
^ I understand that somewhat contradicts a lot of the speculation that the Broncos offense has changed to be more WR heavy. Still, hard for a Tiger to change his stripes?
shadyridr
Footballguy
Jacob Tamme has 3.25 per game, Joel Dreesen had 2.6 per game. Now add Wes Welker to the mix.Peyton Manning's starting TE's upside is 3 catches?
Seriously what do you predict out of this guy this year? More than 48 catches? Youre insane
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Doubtingthomas
Footballguy
Not sure what Dreesens and tammes combined numbers were last year but I could see him getting 90 percent of that.
edit to add: If shady is right 6 catches per game for teh tes last year and neither is dynamic enough to make thomas sit. 80 balls might be to much but 60 or 70 is certainly doable.
edit to add: If shady is right 6 catches per game for teh tes last year and neither is dynamic enough to make thomas sit. 80 balls might be to much but 60 or 70 is certainly doable.
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shadyridr
Footballguy
Come on you cant be serious. And FYI those guys are still on the rosterBigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Peyton threw more yards last year then in 2004. He was also on a new team and recovering from a big injury.Jacob Tamme has 3.25 per game, Joel Dreesen had 2.6 per game. Now add Wes Welker to the mix.Peyton Manning's starting TE's upside is 3 catches?
Seriously what do you predict out of this guy this year? More than 48 catches? Youre insane
In that '04 year he had a WR with 1,200, another with 1,100 and yet another with 1,000. Then he had RBs with over 500.
How did the TEs fare? 58 - 765 - 11.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
So now we're comparing Thomas' projections with multiple TEs?Peyton threw more yards last year then in 2004. He was also on a new team and recovering from a big injury.Jacob Tamme has 3.25 per game, Joel Dreesen had 2.6 per game. Now add Wes Welker to the mix.Peyton Manning's starting TE's upside is 3 catches?
Seriously what do you predict out of this guy this year? More than 48 catches? Youre insane
In that '04 year he had a WR with 1,200, another with 1,100 and yet another with 1,000. Then he had RBs with over 500.
How did the TEs fair? 58 - 765 - 11.
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
fare
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Yep. Because there isnt a Marcus Pollard anywhere on this team.So now we're comparing Thomas' projections with multiple TEs?Peyton threw more yards last year then in 2004. He was also on a new team and recovering from a big injury.Jacob Tamme has 3.25 per game, Joel Dreesen had 2.6 per game. Now add Wes Welker to the mix.Peyton Manning's starting TE's upside is 3 catches?
Seriously what do you predict out of this guy this year? More than 48 catches? Youre insane
In that '04 year he had a WR with 1,200, another with 1,100 and yet another with 1,000. Then he had RBs with over 500.
How did the TEs fair? 58 - 765 - 11.
JT is the Dallas Clark equivalent in this scenario... with no Marcus Pollard.
Also the RBs wont be catching as many balls as Edge did. No way, no how.
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shadyridr
Footballguy
So youre saying if Julius Thomas catches 100% of the TE passes he will catch 58 ballsYep. Because there isnt a Marcus Pollard anywhere on this team.So now we're comparing Thomas' projections with multiple TEs?Peyton threw more yards last year then in 2004. He was also on a new team and recovering from a big injury.Jacob Tamme has 3.25 per game, Joel Dreesen had 2.6 per game. Now add Wes Welker to the mix.Peyton Manning's starting TE's upside is 3 catches?
Seriously what do you predict out of this guy this year? More than 48 catches? Youre insane
In that '04 year he had a WR with 1,200, another with 1,100 and yet another with 1,000. Then he had RBs with over 500.
How did the TEs fair? 58 - 765 - 11.
JT is the Dallas Clark equivalent in this scenario... with no Marcus Pollard.
Also the RBs wont be catching as many balls as Edge did. No way, no how.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Nope.So youre saying if Julius Thomas catches 100% of the TE passes he will catch 58 ballsYep. Because there isnt a Marcus Pollard anywhere on this team.So now we're comparing Thomas' projections with multiple TEs?Peyton threw more yards last year then in 2004. He was also on a new team and recovering from a big injury.Jacob Tamme has 3.25 per game, Joel Dreesen had 2.6 per game. Now add Wes Welker to the mix.Peyton Manning's starting TE's upside is 3 catches?
Seriously what do you predict out of this guy this year? More than 48 catches? Youre insane
In that '04 year he had a WR with 1,200, another with 1,100 and yet another with 1,000. Then he had RBs with over 500.
How did the TEs fair? 58 - 765 - 11.
JT is the Dallas Clark equivalent in this scenario... with no Marcus Pollard.
Also the RBs wont be catching as many balls as Edge did. No way, no how.
I'm saying Peyton will throw for more yards and completions this year. JT will be his out-n-out primary tight end while doing so.
He caught 3 balls in the first quarter with DThomas, WWelker, and EDecker out there every play versus the Seahawks just a couple weeks ago.
They are going to feast on this schedule.... http://www.denverbroncos.com/schedule-and-events/schedule.html This week will likely be the lowest point all season, vs the Ravens.
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shadyridr
Footballguy
Manning had 400 completions last year...
94 to DT, 85 to Decker, 45 to Stokley... 224 total to top 3 WRs. Now add Welker to the mix and remove Stokley you are probably looking at 250 receptions between the big 3. That leaves 150 left
MacGahee, Moreno, & Hillman got 57 receptions total. Lets say 50 for this years RB core. That leaves 100 left.
28 receptions went to random players. Lets say 25 this year to random players. That leaves 75 left between the TEs.
Considering Tamme, Dreesen, and Green are still on the roster I think youre insane if you project Thomas to get more than 48 of those remaining 75 catches.
94 to DT, 85 to Decker, 45 to Stokley... 224 total to top 3 WRs. Now add Welker to the mix and remove Stokley you are probably looking at 250 receptions between the big 3. That leaves 150 left
MacGahee, Moreno, & Hillman got 57 receptions total. Lets say 50 for this years RB core. That leaves 100 left.
28 receptions went to random players. Lets say 25 this year to random players. That leaves 75 left between the TEs.
Considering Tamme, Dreesen, and Green are still on the roster I think youre insane if you project Thomas to get more than 48 of those remaining 75 catches.
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