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Julius Thomas week 1...starting him with confidence? (1 Viewer)

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Phenix said:
Grigs Allmoon said:
shadyridr said:
Plus this is week 1, IMMEDIATELY after everyone drafted and you would think they would have a drafted a Tight End before TE19. So who are they starting him over? (The Gronk owners I kind of give a pass although that still means 18 TEs were drafted before him that they could start in week 1).
I’m starting him over Finley in a couple leagues. To me Finley is low-floor, high-ceiling. Thomas is medium-floor, unknown-ceiling.
You're kidding right? Look, I got my eye on the kid as a stash away, but starting him Week 1 especially over Finley, is grasping for hope.
You haven't owned Finley lately, have you. I just looked back ad counted 6 games last year with 5 or fewer points. That's why I consider him a low floor until he proves otherwise.
You only owned Finley during during the 2012 season haven't you.
No, but if I am going to look back I'm going to put the most stock in the most recent history. Don't get me wrong. I think he is in store for a really good year, but I'm just more confident in getting a 6 for 60 day out of Thomas than Finley right now.

 
shadyridr said:
ImTheScientist said:
shadyridr said:
FDC said:
I don't understand the JT hype backlash

Jordan Cameron has an ADP of TE8 and has 26 career receptions. Finley has an ADP of TE7 despite never really living up to an insane amount of hype.

Meanwhile JT at an ADP of TE19+ is the most criticized hype train/sit start in the shark pool? In a possible historic passing offense with a HOF QB?

I don't get it
Demaryius Thomas + Eric Decker + Wes Welker over Greg Little competing for targets. Plus this is week 1, IMMEDIATELY after everyone drafted and you would think they would have a drafted a Tight End before TE19. So who are they starting him over? (The Gronk owners I kind of give a pass although that still means 18 TEs were drafted before him that they could start in week 1).
Peyton Manning versus Brandon Weeden.
Again, Im not saying hes not a decent stash. But to start this guy with confidence in week 1 when everyone just had their draft and there are no bye weeks, injuries etc is insanity
Deep leagues + injuries.

 
shadyridr said:
ImTheScientist said:
shadyridr said:
FDC said:
I don't understand the JT hype backlash

Jordan Cameron has an ADP of TE8 and has 26 career receptions. Finley has an ADP of TE7 despite never really living up to an insane amount of hype.

Meanwhile JT at an ADP of TE19+ is the most criticized hype train/sit start in the shark pool? In a possible historic passing offense with a HOF QB?

I don't get it
Demaryius Thomas + Eric Decker + Wes Welker over Greg Little competing for targets. Plus this is week 1, IMMEDIATELY after everyone drafted and you would think they would have a drafted a Tight End before TE19. So who are they starting him over? (The Gronk owners I kind of give a pass although that still means 18 TEs were drafted before him that they could start in week 1).
Peyton Manning versus Brandon Weeden.
Again, Im not saying hes not a decent stash. But to start this guy with confidence in week 1 when everyone just had their draft and there are no bye weeks, injuries etc is insanity
Deep leagues + injuries.
What? When did you have your draft? Unless someone drafted Pitta or Keller as their starter I dont see how this has any effect

 
:shrug: Not sure why folks are so constipated over starting Thomas this week. With the injuries at the TE position, this week may be the best week to start Thomas. He could easily be a top-5 TE this week, and a TE18 for the season as Dressen and Tamme get more play. I think he'll outperform his draft position, but even if he doesn't, I think he is a fine play this week if you have Gronk, or any number of mediocre TEs. I don't think anyone is talking about sitting Graham for him.

I am also expecting a relatively high scoring game - which should help.

 
I am considering starting him, but only because TE is a weak position for me. Can't say I'll be starting him with a high level of confidence.

 
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Starting him over Brandon Myers this week... Right now he's my starter. I hope I don't change my mind 5 minutes before Thursday's game and regret it. That being said, someone just dropped Jared Cook to waivers for Anthony Fasano in my league...

I'm doing this because:

1.) I can't wait for the season to start and JT is the only player I have to start tomorrow's game.

2.) He might blow up.

 
Interestingly enough Rotoworld is calling JT a back-end TE1 with upside in their match up column. Im actually starting to wonder why his ADP didnt budge much from the start of the preseason until now. Regardless of the situation, the potential is obvious.

 
shadyridr said:
ImTheScientist said:
shadyridr said:
FDC said:
I don't understand the JT hype backlash

Jordan Cameron has an ADP of TE8 and has 26 career receptions. Finley has an ADP of TE7 despite never really living up to an insane amount of hype.

Meanwhile JT at an ADP of TE19+ is the most criticized hype train/sit start in the shark pool? In a possible historic passing offense with a HOF QB?

I don't get it
Demaryius Thomas + Eric Decker + Wes Welker over Greg Little competing for targets. Plus this is week 1, IMMEDIATELY after everyone drafted and you would think they would have a drafted a Tight End before TE19. So who are they starting him over? (The Gronk owners I kind of give a pass although that still means 18 TEs were drafted before him that they could start in week 1).
Peyton Manning versus Brandon Weeden.
Again, Im not saying hes not a decent stash. But to start this guy with confidence in week 1 when everyone just had their draft and there are no bye weeks, injuries etc is insanity
Deep leagues + injuries.
What? When did you have your draft? Unless someone drafted Pitta or Keller as their starter I dont see how this has any effect
I drafted Pitta, Pettigrew, J Thomas, 16 teams, 22 player rosters.

 
Interestingly enough Rotoworld is calling JT a back-end TE1 with upside in their match up column. Im actually starting to wonder why his ADP didnt budge much from the start of the preseason until now. Regardless of the situation, the potential is obvious.
The magazine most guppies bought in June didn't list him. :shrug:

 
This thread is funny. Everyone who picked up jt is predicting the moon a d everyone who missed out is trying to justify not grabbing him... thanks for the laugh.

 
Many would agree that most weeks Thomas will/could be the 4th option in the passing game. Obviously there will be weeks where he might be higher . . . but on the flip side there will be weeks where he ranks lower on the team's pecking order.

For argument's sake, let's say he is the 4th most productive receiving option each week. And also for argument's sake, let's look at last year's totals week to week for a potential road map as to what that might mean. Again, I understand last year is last year and this year everything could change.

2-26-0

2-16-0

3-31-0

5-38-0

4-21-0

4-42-0

4-33-0

3-18-0

2-31-0

3-42-1

4-48-1

3-22-0

4-48-0

2-8-0

5-32-0

2-19-0

52-475-2

I agree it's unlikely that Thomas would end up with a year end line like that, as I don't expect him to only have a 9.1 ypr and only 2 TD. But the point was to illustrate that even last year without Welker that there was not a lot of solid weeks for the 4th best option. I agree with those that will invariable say that some weeks he won't be the 4th option and will have better weeks. But I also think there will be weeks where he isn't one of the top 4 most productive receivers (and those totals were pretty putrid for 5th and 6th best receiving totals each week last year.

Which gets me back to what I have been posting in all these threads. JT will have to have a lot of projected production for DT, WW, and ED shifted in order to make a bigger fantasy impact this year.

 
This is a weirdly passionate thread about a likely role player. If you're starting him it's a desperation/hope for a TD play, on a team that already has two great red zone receivers. I have a hard time ranking him any higher than 14th or 15th for this week, so I would basically start anyone drafted in the first 12 rounds or so of a standard league ahead of him without question.

 
This thread is funny. Everyone who picked up jt is predicting the moon a d everyone who missed out is trying to justify not grabbing him... thanks for the laugh.
You've just described every player thread on the Shark Pool. Thanks for the input

 
Still haven't decided between Cook and JT, I'm comfortable starting either but I'm trying to squeeze out the most value and have been leaning JT all week.

I happen to have Demaryius on this team as well so I think starting both is actually +EV as opposed to starting DT and Cook. The rams also open against the Cardinals and last I checked they led the league in passes defended to TEs.

 
Starting him over Kyle "Only used in the Red Zone" Rudolph in my 16 team PPR dynasty
Gutsy, especially against a Lion's team that hasn't a good secondary since the 50's
2 - 8

7 - 61 -1td

His two games against the Lions last year.

5 - 34 - 0.5
Different Lion's team, the Lion's pass rush looks legit this year and I could see a lot of dump offs.
Well you just shifted the "secondary" talking point to the "pass rush" talking point. Odd.

 
Still haven't decided between Cook and JT, I'm comfortable starting either but I'm trying to squeeze out the most value and have been leaning JT all week.

I happen to have Demaryius on this team as well so I think starting both is actually +EV as opposed to starting DT and Cook. The rams also open against the Cardinals and last I checked they led the league in passes defended to TEs.
Yet weirdly gave up a disproportionately high number of big plays to TE's. Might not be all that bad a match if STL intends to play Cook down the seam as much as the experts seem to think. :shrug:

 
This is a weirdly passionate thread about a likely role player.
lol this. i mean its just so overwhelmingly likely that JT either has no fantasy impact at all this season or just becomes another guy in the TE10ish range. like somebody else said hes pretty much just a late round flyer at this point.

 
One more

Tamme and Dreesen combined for 143 targets last year

Jimmy Grham had 135 targets last year

Tony G had 124

Gronkowski had 79

Olsen and Miller had around 100

 
One more

Tamme and Dreesen combined for 143 targets last year

Jimmy Grham had 135 targets last year

Tony G had 124

Gronkowski had 79

Olsen and Miller had around 100
By my math that means JT will have 143 targets this year, thus becoming the top targeted TE in the league. :moneybag:

 
This is a weirdly passionate thread about a likely role player.
lol this. i mean its just so overwhelmingly likely that JT either has no fantasy impact at all this season or just becomes another guy in the TE10ish range. like somebody else said hes pretty much just a late round flyer at this point.
For someone who according to MFL was taken as the 27th TE off the board, I would think outperforming your ADP by about 17 would be noteworthy. I personally don't think he has TE1-5 potential, but I'm still wondering why he was being so under-drafted all preseason.

 
This is a weirdly passionate thread about a likely role player.
lol this. i mean its just so overwhelmingly likely that JT either has no fantasy impact at all this season or just becomes another guy in the TE10ish range. like somebody else said hes pretty much just a late round flyer at this point.
For someone who according to MFL was taken as the 27th TE off the board, I would think outperforming your ADP by about 17 would be noteworthy. I personally don't think he has TE1-5 potential, but I'm still wondering why he was being so under-drafted all preseason.
You can either wait for mainstream to catch up or not
 
One more

Tamme and Dreesen combined for 143 targets last year

Jimmy Grham had 135 targets last year

Tony G had 124

Gronkowski had 79

Olsen and Miller had around 100
4th most targeted WR or TE on those teams:

NOS: DHenderson, 47 targets, 22 receptions, 316 yards, 1 TD

ATL: HDouglas, 59 targets, 38 receptions, 395 yards, 1 TD

NEP: Gronk, 79 targets, 55 receptions, 790 yards, 11 TD (but would not have been 4th most targeted if healthy)

CAR: LMurphy, 60 targets, 25 receptions, 336 yards, 1 TD

PIT: ESanders, 74 targets, 44 receptions, 626 yards, 1 TD

People can post target data of TEs all day long and try to shoehorn stats to make a case for JThomas all they want. Yes, Tamme and Dreessen had a combined 143 targets last year. But they are both still on the team and DEN added Welker. Does anyone here actually think Thomas is going to see 143 targets?????

I've been saying all along that if Thomas turns out to be the 4th most targeted Bronco this year after DThomas, Welker, and Decker, then it's unlikely he will be a fantasy force this season. If one of the three WR got hurt and missed significant time that would change things, but just listing how TE did last year with fewer targets than Tamme and Dreessen had combined is a bit goofy. That's like arguing that Welker and Lloyd had 304 combined targets last year and then give them all to Amendola this year instead.

 
People are waayyy over thinking this one. Thomas is a must start unless you have Graham. The easiest throw for a QB is up the middle to the TE, that's why you see a lot of TEs who play with rookie QBs get a lot of love. Peyton Manning is the smartest QB to ever play the game and if Thomas is wide open for a 7 yard gain, Peyton will take that all day long. I expect their trio of WRs getting much attention and therefore, Peyton, being the smart QB he is, will be hitting JT all night long. Did you guys watch him in the preseason? JT was getting the love. I expect that to carry over into the regular season.

 
One more

Tamme and Dreesen combined for 143 targets last year

Jimmy Grham had 135 targets last year

Tony G had 124

Gronkowski had 79

Olsen and Miller had around 100
4th most targeted WR or TE on those teams:

NOS: DHenderson, 47 targets, 22 receptions, 316 yards, 1 TD

ATL: HDouglas, 59 targets, 38 receptions, 395 yards, 1 TD

NEP: Gronk, 79 targets, 55 receptions, 790 yards, 11 TD (but would not have been 4th most targeted if healthy)

CAR: LMurphy, 60 targets, 25 receptions, 336 yards, 1 TD

PIT: ESanders, 74 targets, 44 receptions, 626 yards, 1 TD

People can post target data of TEs all day long and try to shoehorn stats to make a case for JThomas all they want. Yes, Tamme and Dreessen had a combined 143 targets last year. But they are both still on the team and DEN added Welker. Does anyone here actually think Thomas is going to see 143 targets?????

I've been saying all along that if Thomas turns out to be the 4th most targeted Bronco this year after DThomas, Welker, and Decker, then it's unlikely he will be a fantasy force this season. If one of the three WR got hurt and missed significant time that would change things, but just listing how TE did last year with fewer targets than Tamme and Dreessen had combined is a bit goofy. That's like arguing that Welker and Lloyd had 304 combined targets last year and then give them all to Amendola this year instead.
This is like saying Finley won't be fantasy relevant because Rodgers throws to everyone on his team approximately the same amount. People are taking Kyle Rudolph in the first 6 rounds because he caught 9 TD passes... I took JT in the 16th round because I think he can catch 70+ balls and will be on the field in the redzone. At this point I think the discussion of whether or not you think JT will do anything should go to the Julius Thomas thread, as this clearly isn't the place for it.

 
People are waayyy over thinking this one. Thomas is a must start unless you have Graham. The easiest throw for a QB is up the middle to the TE, that's why you see a lot of TEs who play with rookie QBs get a lot of love. Peyton Manning is the smartest QB to ever play the game and if Thomas is wide open for a 7 yard gain, Peyton will take that all day long. I expect their trio of WRs getting much attention and therefore, Peyton, being the smart QB he is, will be hitting JT all night long. Did you guys watch him in the preseason? JT was getting the love. I expect that to carry over into the regular season.
Certainly every year the regular season plays out exactly like the preseason does. And defenses play the same players and schemes in the preseason as they do in the regular season.

 
probably wait and see mode this week.

question, When was the last season the TE position in a Manning-led offence was a fantasy nonfactor?

 
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One more

Tamme and Dreesen combined for 143 targets last year

Jimmy Grham had 135 targets last year

Tony G had 124

Gronkowski had 79

Olsen and Miller had around 100
4th most targeted WR or TE on those teams:

NOS: DHenderson, 47 targets, 22 receptions, 316 yards, 1 TD

ATL: HDouglas, 59 targets, 38 receptions, 395 yards, 1 TD

NEP: Gronk, 79 targets, 55 receptions, 790 yards, 11 TD (but would not have been 4th most targeted if healthy)

CAR: LMurphy, 60 targets, 25 receptions, 336 yards, 1 TD

PIT: ESanders, 74 targets, 44 receptions, 626 yards, 1 TD

People can post target data of TEs all day long and try to shoehorn stats to make a case for JThomas all they want. Yes, Tamme and Dreessen had a combined 143 targets last year. But they are both still on the team and DEN added Welker. Does anyone here actually think Thomas is going to see 143 targets?????

I've been saying all along that if Thomas turns out to be the 4th most targeted Bronco this year after DThomas, Welker, and Decker, then it's unlikely he will be a fantasy force this season. If one of the three WR got hurt and missed significant time that would change things, but just listing how TE did last year with fewer targets than Tamme and Dreessen had combined is a bit goofy. That's like arguing that Welker and Lloyd had 304 combined targets last year and then give them all to Amendola this year instead.
This is like saying Finley won't be fantasy relevant because Rodgers throws to everyone on his team approximately the same amount. People are taking Kyle Rudolph in the first 6 rounds because he caught 9 TD passes... I took JT in the 16th round because I think he can catch 70+ balls and will be on the field in the redzone. At this point I think the discussion of whether or not you think JT will do anything should go to the Julius Thomas thread, as this clearly isn't the place for it.
People can draft whomever they want and have whatever expectations they want from the players they draft. As for your example, care to guess who was the most targeted player on the Vikings last year? Yep, Kyle Rudolph.

If you think Thomas is going to catch 70+ balls and be a force in the red zone I certainly am not going to tell you that you are wrong. However, history and statistics will suggest that DEN will be highly unlikely to have 4 guys with 70 catches this year. As I have been saying all along, if Thomas has the year that some folks are suggesting, then the Big 3 WRs are not going to produce anywhere near what they are projected at (either that or Peyton will have to have a 6000/60 yard season this year).

 
targets last year. But they are both still on the team and DEN added Welker. Does anyone here actually think Thomas is going to see 143 targets?????.
For where I drafted him I'd take half of that

I don't think 100 targets is unreasonable either

with the uptempo offense, I think Manning's attempts will increase

I also think Welker will take some of Decker's and all of Stokely's targets and some of those 143...

 
targets last year. But they are both still on the team and DEN added Welker. Does anyone here actually think Thomas is going to see 143 targets?????.
For where I drafted him I'd take half of that

I don't think 100 targets is unreasonable either

with the uptempo offense, I think Manning's attempts will increase

I also think Welker will take some of Decker's and all of Stokely's targets and some of those 143...
At some point we are going to be dancing in circles, but Stokley had 58 targets last year. People forget that Manning had statistically his second best season of his career last year, and by that I mean his ceiling is limited. There's only one football and there is only so much more production he can get.

And while people are quick to give Thomas 100 targets, that would leave Tamme, Dreeseen, and Green would have to get no targets at all. Maybe some of the reason Thomas played so much or was targeted more in the preseason was due to the other guys being hurt and not playing?

To get 100 targets, Thomas would have to take away targets from the WRs, capture almost all the TE targets, and have Manning throw very few check downs to RBs.

I used the same logic to try to explain to people last year that what people were projecting from the NE offense was also a virtual impossibility. People wanted to project 180 targets for Welker, 130 targets for Lloyd, 130 targets for Gronk, and 130 targets for Hernandez. Plus there were Edelman supporters, Woodhead to consider, etc. Bottom line, when you added it all up, Brady needed to throw the ball 750 times and would have needed a 7000/70 season for all the players to hit what some people had for individual projections. The only way out of it to scale back on the totals for Brady was to allocate 98% of the production from 4 guys and no one else would ever see the ball . . . ever.

Real football doesn't work that way. I don't remember the exact numbers, but Peyton had over 1,000 passing yards and 20-25% of his passing TD to basically "other" guys on the roster last year. Leftover WR, the back up TEs, and RBs. But no one cares about those people, so no one wants to account for it in projecting player totals.

If people research and map out projections with a sense of realism, they will see that it will be very difficult for DEN to have three 1,000 receivers and an 800 yard TE, especially when you allocate anything to the rest of the skill players on the team in the passing game. There is only so much production from one team to go around. Opinions may vary on players and projections can be different from person to person, but the math doesn't take sides. You can't get two dollars worth of change from a single dollar bill.

 
Peyton had 583 attempts last year. With the uptempo, he'll probably get more, say 620.

if DT gets 140, and WW and ED get 115 each, that's 370.

that leaves 250 - more than enough to share

upside is there, but we'll have to see how it plays out

 
Not sure what Dreesens and tammes combined numbers were last year but I could see him getting 90 percent of that.

edit to add: If shady is right 6 catches per game for teh tes last year and neither is dynamic enough to make thomas sit. 80 balls might be to much but 60 or 70 is certainly doable.
:lmao: Come on you cant be serious. And FYI those guys are still on the roster
90% of the production? :11:

 
Yea maybe if Dreesen and Tamme weren't still on the team then maybe. I just don't see the upside. Not even Manning can support 4 pass catchers consistently. Next year maybe.

 
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Gonna have to take a wait and see approach in a few PPR leagues. Starting Cook and Olsen over him in multiple leagues.

 
Beerguzzler said:
Yea maybe if Dreesen and Tamme weren't still on the team then maybe. I just don't see the upside. Not even Manning can support 4 pass catchers consistently. Next year maybe.
This is a thread for starting him week 1 specifically...

Dreesen isn't playing and JT is gonna get the super majority of the snaps. The other TEs are a non-issue for this week (and imo most weeks).

 
Transition from Ed Reed and Ray Lewis is good for opposing TEs. Addition of DOOM is bad for QBs. Quick throws are bad for JT IMO. No Champ or Von is bad for offense via defensive stops & possession time. Net bad. I think this is not his week, but I think he has some good weeks in the future.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Does anyone here actually think Thomas is going to see 143 targets?????
I was obviously joking about that.

That said, I'm still not as convinced he will have the 4th most targets. It's very likely, I'll give you that. However, I think there will be a much smaller difference between 2 and 4 than 30 other teams in the NFL.

 
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