Julius Thomas week 1...starting him with confidence? (1 Viewer)

[FDC]

4 pages, wow!

Just wait till tomorrow.

Tomorrow? Wait until the end of Denver's first drive when JT has three catches.

Best-case scenario for an entertaining thread is that they're three catches for a total of, like, 11 yards.

...and two drops.

and a TD

and a jaywalking ticket

 

[Anarchy99]

Lucky for him, he's not on NE or he'd have been cut by now.

Is analysis like this why you are no longer on staff?

The point was that he got arrested. The Pats waited a whole 90 minutes before cutting Hernandez citing that as soon as he got arrested they were going to cut him. Sorry if I didn't connect the dots for you on that one.

 

[Run It Up]

Lucky for him, he's not on NE or he'd have been cut by now.

Is analysis like this why you are no longer on staff?

The point was that he got arrested. The Pats waited a whole 90 minutes before cutting Hernandez citing that as soon as he got arrested they were going to cut him. Sorry if I didn't connect the dots for you on that one.

Your schtick gets worse as the day progresses. You might wanna take a break, have a snack - your blood sugar might be low.

 

[Anarchy99]

A local take with some homerism thrown in:

JT was all the rage as a very raw rookie. Cecil Lammey gushed about him so much that JT is a prime example of why most of what Lammey says is taken with a huge grain of salt. Truth of the matter is, he was that good as a raw rookie. His one catch that season was in the first game, might have been first drive, and even might have been first pass of the season. He was out there as a rookie with the starters on the vey first drive. That reception was when he got hurt and was out the rest of the year.

Last offseason Manning was all rage. Local news kept up with Manning throwing to Decker at a local highschool. More and more receivers began to show up for these informal practices. The second name I heard of joining was JT. It was here that Manning and the other receivers (and coaches) all advised him to ditch the season and get healthy. He could have played but then entering this season he would still have a lingering issue and eventually would need to bite the bullet.

This past offseason he's been healthy and is all the rage again. It's not like Manning is wondering where this kid came from. He knew exactly what he had in JT his first week in Denver. That would be a still raw but incredibly athletic receiving threat. IMHO, Manning will look to take advantage of the mismatches that JT will draw on a regular basis.

I think JT finishes top ten this year and is a lock for top 5 for the next 5-6 years. This year, I predict he lines up at move or in-line when one TE is on the field. He will also fill one of those roles when two TE's are on the field. Basically, he will see the field a lot and I predict enough production that he'll end up a TE1. Health is my only concern.

Appreciate the local insight. But I would still ask, what happens to the 3 other TEs? Do they just stay on the sidelines and not play and never see the football? And what about the 3 main receivers? Are people way overpredicting/overprojecting how well they will do? As I have been harping all along, it will be very difficult to feed 4 mouths at a top tier level on a regular basis.

Dreesen is hurt. Virgil Green is nothing. Tamme isn't all that great. JT is starting and has had by far the best camp. Why on earth is this such a hard scenario for you to imagine?

How many guys have we seen that have been preseason saviors that did far less in the regular season? Dreessen and Tamme have been hurt. If they are ready to roll with Thomas, why take up $6-7 million in cap space and shell out millions of dollars for guys not to play? Sure, JT will see more action tonight because of that, but I expect that when the other guys are up to speed that they will play. Maybe not as much as last year, but I don't see the TE production as 95% Thomas and 5% the other guys. Feel free to disagree.

As an example, last year Edelman had a great camp and was named as a starter to start the season. How did that turn out?

 

[ImTheScientist]

= Non-JT owners in a few hours.

 

[Possum]

A local take with some homerism thrown in:

JT was all the rage as a very raw rookie. Cecil Lammey gushed about him so much that JT is a prime example of why most of what Lammey says is taken with a huge grain of salt. Truth of the matter is, he was that good as a raw rookie. His one catch that season was in the first game, might have been first drive, and even might have been first pass of the season. He was out there as a rookie with the starters on the vey first drive. That reception was when he got hurt and was out the rest of the year.

Last offseason Manning was all rage. Local news kept up with Manning throwing to Decker at a local highschool. More and more receivers began to show up for these informal practices. The second name I heard of joining was JT. It was here that Manning and the other receivers (and coaches) all advised him to ditch the season and get healthy. He could have played but then entering this season he would still have a lingering issue and eventually would need to bite the bullet.

This past offseason he's been healthy and is all the rage again. It's not like Manning is wondering where this kid came from. He knew exactly what he had in JT his first week in Denver. That would be a still raw but incredibly athletic receiving threat. IMHO, Manning will look to take advantage of the mismatches that JT will draw on a regular basis.

I think JT finishes top ten this year and is a lock for top 5 for the next 5-6 years. This year, I predict he lines up at move or in-line when one TE is on the field. He will also fill one of those roles when two TE's are on the field. Basically, he will see the field a lot and I predict enough production that he'll end up a TE1. Health is my only concern.

Appreciate the local insight. But I would still ask, what happens to the 3 other TEs? Do they just stay on the sidelines and not play and never see the football? And what about the 3 main receivers? Are people way overpredicting/overprojecting how well they will do? As I have been harping all along, it will be very difficult to feed 4 mouths at a top tier level on a regular basis.

Dreesen is hurt. Virgil Green is nothing. Tamme isn't all that great. JT is starting and has had by far the best camp. Why on earth is this such a hard scenario for you to imagine?

How many guys have we seen that have been preseason saviors that did far less in the regular season? Dreessen and Tamme have been hurt. If they are ready to roll with Thomas, why take up $6-7 million in cap space and shell out millions of dollars for guys not to play? Sure, JT will see more action tonight because of that, but I expect that when the other guys are up to speed that they will play. Maybe not as much as last year, but I don't see the TE production as 95% Thomas and 5% the other guys. Feel free to disagree.

As an example, last year Edelman had a great camp and was named as a starter to start the season. How did that turn out?

I wouldn't say I'm expecting the TE production in Denver to be 95% Thomas, but I think somewhere between 60-70% is pretty reasonable if he stays healthy. Last year's Bronco TEs combined for 98 catches, and I think Thomas is a better athlete and receiving option than any of them, so I feel like 55-60 catches is a decent bet for him.

 

[cstu]

= Non-JT owners in a few hours.

You're starting to put together a nice roster of players for me to root against.

 

[massraider]

A local take with some homerism thrown in:

JT was all the rage as a very raw rookie. Cecil Lammey gushed about him so much that JT is a prime example of why most of what Lammey says is taken with a huge grain of salt. Truth of the matter is, he was that good as a raw rookie. His one catch that season was in the first game, might have been first drive, and even might have been first pass of the season. He was out there as a rookie with the starters on the vey first drive. That reception was when he got hurt and was out the rest of the year.

Last offseason Manning was all rage. Local news kept up with Manning throwing to Decker at a local highschool. More and more receivers began to show up for these informal practices. The second name I heard of joining was JT. It was here that Manning and the other receivers (and coaches) all advised him to ditch the season and get healthy. He could have played but then entering this season he would still have a lingering issue and eventually would need to bite the bullet.

This past offseason he's been healthy and is all the rage again. It's not like Manning is wondering where this kid came from. He knew exactly what he had in JT his first week in Denver. That would be a still raw but incredibly athletic receiving threat. IMHO, Manning will look to take advantage of the mismatches that JT will draw on a regular basis.

I think JT finishes top ten this year and is a lock for top 5 for the next 5-6 years. This year, I predict he lines up at move or in-line when one TE is on the field. He will also fill one of those roles when two TE's are on the field. Basically, he will see the field a lot and I predict enough production that he'll end up a TE1. Health is my only concern.

Appreciate the local insight. But I would still ask, what happens to the 3 other TEs? Do they just stay on the sidelines and not play and never see the football? And what about the 3 main receivers? Are people way overpredicting/overprojecting how well they will do? As I have been harping all along, it will be very difficult to feed 4 mouths at a top tier level on a regular basis.

Dreesen is hurt. Virgil Green is nothing. Tamme isn't all that great. JT is starting and has had by far the best camp. Why on earth is this such a hard scenario for you to imagine?

How many guys have we seen that have been preseason saviors that did far less in the regular season? Dreessen and Tamme have been hurt. If they are ready to roll with Thomas, why take up $6-7 million in cap space and shell out millions of dollars for guys not to play? Sure, JT will see more action tonight because of that, but I expect that when the other guys are up to speed that they will play. Maybe not as much as last year, but I don't see the TE production as 95% Thomas and 5% the other guys. Feel free to disagree.

As an example, last year Edelman had a great camp and was named as a starter to start the season. How did that turn out?

I wouldn't say I'm expecting the TE production in Denver to be 95% Thomas, but I think somewhere between 60-70% is pretty reasonable if he stays healthy. Last year's Bronco TEs combined for 98 catches, and I think Thomas is a better athlete and receiving option than any of them, so I feel like 55-60 catches is a decent bet for him.

That sounds good to me to, until I remembered that target hog Wes Welker will be running the same intermediate routes.

 

[massraider]

= Non-JT owners in a few hours.

You're starting to put together a nice roster of players for me to root against.

 

[Buffaloes]

probably wait and see mode this week.

question, When was the last season the TE position in a Manning-led offence was a fantasy nonfactor?

2012

X

98 receptions, 974 yards, 7 TDs

 

[joffer]

= Non-JT owners in a few hours.

You're starting to put together a nice roster of players for me to root against.

 

[Buffaloes]

Lucky for him, he's not on NE or he'd have been cut by now.

Is analysis like this why you are no longer on staff?

The point was that he got arrested. The Pats waited a whole 90 minutes before cutting Hernandez citing that as soon as he got arrested they were going to cut him. Sorry if I didn't connect the dots for you on that one.

what did they do after Alfonzo Dennard was arrested?

 

[Possum]

yeah I hear you on Welker, massraider, but I think that Manning will throw a little more than last year and that both Decker and DT's numbers will go down (Decker moreso than Thomas). I think that Welker will get a portion of their numbers as well as Stokley's catches, but that all three Denver WRs are going to fall short of most projections and the RB/TE targets will remain relatively similar from last year.

 

[shadyridr]

probably wait and see mode this week.

question, When was the last season the TE position in a Manning-led offence was a fantasy nonfactor?

2012

X

98 receptions, 974 yards, 7 TDs

AWESOME, so now I can get points for ALL Denver TEs if I start Thomas!

 

[Buffaloes]

probably wait and see mode this week.

question, When was the last season the TE position in a Manning-led offence was a fantasy nonfactor?

2012

X

98 receptions, 974 yards, 7 TDs

AWESOME, so now I can get points for ALL Denver TEs if I start Thomas!

maybe this week. which would be AWESOME!

fwiw, I am interested in knowing when the TE position was a fantasy non-factor in a Manning-led offence.

 

[ImTheScientist]

= Non-JT owners in a few hours.

You're starting to put together a nice roster of players for me to root against.

Here are the rest of them if you are interested in hating them: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=684299&p=15872383

 

[Man of Zen]

probably wait and see mode this week.

question, When was the last season the TE position in a Manning-led offence was a fantasy nonfactor?

2012

X

98 receptions, 974 yards, 7 TDs

AWESOME, so now I can get points for ALL Denver TEs if I start Thomas!

maybe this week. which would be AWESOME!

fwiw, I am interested in knowing when the TE position was a fantasy non-factor in a Manning-led offence.

You'll probably have to define your terms, since apparently having nobody finishing higher than TE26 didn't qualify for non-factorhood.

 

[Tony Jabroni]

JT or Gronk for the start???

Whatcha got?

 

[FlapJacks]

If anybody is overdrafted it's Welker. Bardy's looks seemed to go Welker, Grok, Welker Hernandez Welker last year,

Four mouths feedable is doable and would have been done in GB, Indy, NE and Pitt last year barring injury and/or lack of talent beyond the top 3.

besides, he's only a TE, he doesn't need 1000 yds to be a TE1

.

 

[Amused to Death]

Lucky for him, he's not on NE or he'd have been cut by now.

Is analysis like this why you are no longer on staff?

The point was that he got arrested. The Pats waited a whole 90 minutes before cutting Hernandez citing that as soon as he got arrested they were going to cut him. Sorry if I didn't connect the dots for you on that one.

Wait...I have no dog in this fight, but are you seriously equating the Pats cutting AH because of an arrest on a murder 1 charge to JT getting arrested for failing to appear on a traffic ticket?? They're not the same.

 

[Anarchy99]

Lucky for him, he's not on NE or he'd have been cut by now.

Is analysis like this why you are no longer on staff?

The point was that he got arrested. The Pats waited a whole 90 minutes before cutting Hernandez citing that as soon as he got arrested they were going to cut him. Sorry if I didn't connect the dots for you on that one.

Wait...I have no dog in this fight, but are you seriously equating the Pats cutting AH because of an arrest on a murder 1 charge to JT getting arrested for failing to appear on a traffic ticket?? They're not the same.

IT WAS A JOKE.

 

[thatguy]

I'm starting him with confidence all season in one league, and as Gronk's backup in another.

 

[Buffaloes]

probably wait and see mode this week.

question, When was the last season the TE position in a Manning-led offence was a fantasy nonfactor?

2012

X

98 receptions, 974 yards, 7 TDs

AWESOME, so now I can get points for ALL Denver TEs if I start Thomas!

maybe this week. which would be AWESOME!

fwiw, I am interested in knowing when the TE position was a fantasy non-factor in a Manning-led offence.

You'll probably have to define your terms, since apparently having nobody finishing higher than TE26 didn't qualify for non-factorhood.

I thought it was pretty straight forward. In other words, when has Peyton Manning not used his TE?

 

[Ghost Rider]

I'm in.

I think J. Thomas gets a lot of looks early, as Peyton tries to loosen up the defense to eventually get the WRs more involved more often. He won't force it to the WRs, and J. Thomas will be open, so I see him getting 4-6 catches tonight.

 

[Tony Jabroni]

#### it. IN.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I'm in.

I think J. Thomas gets a lot of looks early, as Peyton tries to loosen up the defense to eventually get the WRs more involved more often. He won't force it to the WRs, and J. Thomas will be open, so I see him getting 4-6 catches tonight.

#### it. IN.

 

[Phenix]

Julius Thomas arrested for failure to appear

Ouch!

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Julius Thomas arrested for failure to appear

Ouch!

<_< Move along. Nothing to see here.

 

[bill bates hits hard]

In. Starting in 2 leagues. Sat Finley .

 

[DropKick]

I'm starting him with confidence all season in one league, and as Gronk's backup in another.

I hope THAT GUY is right! Sitting Gronk for a couple weeks.

 

[DropKick]

I don't understand the JT hype backlash

Jordan Cameron has an ADP of TE8 and has 26 career receptions. Finley has an ADP of TE7 despite never really living up to an insane amount of hype.

Meanwhile JT at an ADP of TE19+ is the most criticized hype train/sit start in the shark pool? In a possible historic passing offense with a HOF QB?

I don't get it

Demaryius Thomas + Eric Decker + Wes Welker over Greg Little competing for targets. Plus this is week 1, IMMEDIATELY after everyone drafted and you would think they would have a drafted a Tight End before TE19. So who are they starting him over? (The Gronk owners I kind of give a pass although that still means 18 TEs were drafted before him that they could start in week 1).

Peyton Manning versus Brandon Weeden.

Again, Im not saying hes not a decent stash. But to start this guy with confidence in week 1 when everyone just had their draft and there are no bye weeks, injuries etc is insanity

Deep leagues + injuries.

What? When did you have your draft? Unless someone drafted Pitta or Keller as their starter I dont see how this has any effect

Dynasty and deep keeper leagues. Gronk and Keller owner.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

4 pages, wow!

Just wait till tomorrow.

Tomorrow? Wait until the end of Denver's first drive when JT has three catches.

Best-case scenario for an entertaining thread is that they're three catches for a total of, like, 11 yards.

...and two drops.

and a TD

and a jaywalking ticket

And all in pouring rain.

 

[msudaisy26]

This thread is going to be unbearable after the next 3 hours. So many people saying I told you so

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

People are waayyy over thinking this one. Thomas is a must start unless you have Graham. The easiest throw for a QB is up the middle to the TE, that's why you see a lot of TEs who play with rookie QBs get a lot of love. Peyton Manning is the smartest QB to ever play the game and if Thomas is wide open for a 7 yard gain, Peyton will take that all day long. I expect their trio of WRs getting much attention and therefore, Peyton, being the smart QB he is, will be hitting JT all night long. Did you guys watch him in the preseason? JT was getting the love. I expect that to carry over into the regular season.

Certainly every year the regular season plays out exactly like the preseason does. And defenses play the same players and schemes in the preseason as they do in the regular season.

Yeah, that's what I said.

Anyways, haters aside, I'm calling 7-80-1 tonight for JT. Might have 50 and a touch before the 2nd QTR

 

[Phenix]

1 Drop on 1 Target

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I don't understand the JT hype backlash

Jordan Cameron has an ADP of TE8 and has 26 career receptions. Finley has an ADP of TE7 despite never really living up to an insane amount of hype.

Meanwhile JT at an ADP of TE19+ is the most criticized hype train/sit start in the shark pool? In a possible historic passing offense with a HOF QB?

I don't get it

Demaryius Thomas + Eric Decker + Wes Welker over Greg Little competing for targets. Plus this is week 1, IMMEDIATELY after everyone drafted and you would think they would have a drafted a Tight End before TE19. So who are they starting him over? (The Gronk owners I kind of give a pass although that still means 18 TEs were drafted before him that they could start in week 1).

Peyton Manning versus Brandon Weeden.

Again, Im not saying hes not a decent stash. But to start this guy with confidence in week 1 when everyone just had their draft and there are no bye weeks, injuries etc is insanity

I'm not seeing how it's insanity. Out of the 18 or so TEs taken before JT, I'm betting half of them don't have his upside. He's going to be seeing extensive playing time (likely a full compliment of snaps) in one of, if not the most potent offense in the league.. Do you really believe the difference between TE10-12 and JT to be that large?

You're rarely going to lose if your TE (low-end WR3/WR4) equivalent doesn't meet expectations.

Im sorry but I cant agree with a 4th option in ANY passing game has much upside at all.

I wish people would stop calling him the 4th option. With Peyton Manning the TE will be the first or second read on a lot of pass plays.

talk about wishful thinking

Lol... First play... First read.

 

[FUBAR]

Nice hands

 

[VikingFrog]

Almost got killed on the first play.

 

[brett5673]

1 target... 400 targets to spread around. 1/1 to thomas. 400 Targets 4500 Receiving yards for him. Bump THomas

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

talk about wishful thinking

Lol... First play... First read.

Second read on that 3rd and 3. I think I'll rest my case and enjoy the game.

 

[rocketsauce]

Gotta love that designed play right out the gates. Sure would've loved to see him bring it in though.

 

[Ghost Rider]

1 Drop on 1 Target

LOL at calling that a drop. He got drilled as he was catching the ball. Sometimes, you just gotta give props to the defense.

 

[gruecd]

1 Drop on 1 Target

Defender put his helmet perfectly on the ball. Tough to hang onto that one.

 

[Phenix]

talk about wishful thinking

Lol... First play... First read.

Second read on that 3rd and 3. I think I'll rest my case and enjoy the game.

Reads? lol What do those get you?

When we are talking about reads, not TDs and Catches, I think you rest the people saying you shouldn't start him's case.

 

[FlapJacks]

This thread will be unbearable until October when we'll have an idea of who is is and his role....

 

[Rick James]

Lol rice owners are going to love that

 

[shadyridr]

I got 1.5 pts out of Thomas in my PPR league, pts per reads

 

[cstu]

I got 1.5 pts out of Thomas in my PPR league, pts per reads

 

[joffer]

Just traded him for pocket lint

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

talk about wishful thinking

Lol... First play... First read.

Second read on that 3rd and 3. I think I'll rest my case and enjoy the game.

Reads? lol What do those get you?

When we are talking about reads, not TDs and Catches, I think you rest the people saying you shouldn't start him's case.

I was debating those who were referring to him as "the 4th option." I was called out for saying he'd be a top read on a lot of plays. I wasn't talking about FF production. Thanks, though.