Julius Thomas week 1...starting him with confidence? (1 Viewer)

[Man of Zen]

I used the same logic to try to explain to people last year that what people were projecting from the NE offense was also a virtual impossibility. People wanted to project 180 targets for Welker, 130 targets for Lloyd, 130 targets for Gronk, and 130 targets for Hernandez. Plus there were Edelman supporters, Woodhead to consider, etc. Bottom line, when you added it all up, Brady needed to throw the ball 750 times and would have needed a 7000/70 season for all the players to hit what some people had for individual projections. The only way out of it to scale back on the totals for Brady was to allocate 98% of the production from 4 guys and no one else would ever see the ball . . . ever.

Real football doesn't work that way.

Last year's targets/16 games:

Welker - 174

Lloyd - 130

Gronk (projected from his 10 healthy games) - 127

Hernandez (projected from his 10 healthy games) - 134

What you thought was logic was, in fact, wrong. And what you explained was wrong to people, they actually damn near nailed right on the button.

Healthy, those players would have done almost exactly what you said was impossible. They would have -- and thus SHOULD have been projected as if they -- received the vast majority of those targets, and projecting them the way you suggested would have been flat out incorrect and useless.

The way "real" football works is that the best players get the huge majority of the looks, and projecting them ought to take up most or all of a QB's projected value, with no thought whatsoever given to the scrubs. Because the only way they come into play is in replacement duty when the studs get hurt of miss time for murdering people, and such.

The way those numbers scale back, is because in the actual seasons, guys get hurt and miss time. But you're doing poor projections if you try to account for that before the season, because you have exactly zero idea who's going to miss time and why. Unless somebody is already dealing with health or other issues that more or less assure they will miss time, the only correct way to project them is for 16 games.

Your way is, sorry, just bad math. You're not trying to project players' roles in the offense, you're trying to guess what will happen, and that's sloppy analysis.

You still account for what history logically says will come for the backup players. But you don't subtract that from the starters' projections, because logic and history have nothing to do with figuring out which guys will get hurt. Do that, and you're practicing astrology, not statistics.

If your projections for the entire team's receiving totals aren't well in excess of your projected totals for the QB at the start of the season, you have botched your projections.

 

[Anarchy99]

I used the same logic to try to explain to people last year that what people were projecting from the NE offense was also a virtual impossibility. People wanted to project 180 targets for Welker, 130 targets for Lloyd, 130 targets for Gronk, and 130 targets for Hernandez. Plus there were Edelman supporters, Woodhead to consider, etc. Bottom line, when you added it all up, Brady needed to throw the ball 750 times and would have needed a 7000/70 season for all the players to hit what some people had for individual projections. The only way out of it to scale back on the totals for Brady was to allocate 98% of the production from 4 guys and no one else would ever see the ball . . . ever.

Real football doesn't work that way.

Last year's targets/16 games:

Welker - 174

Lloyd - 130

Gronk (projected from his 10 healthy games) - 127

Hernandez (projected from his 10 healthy games) - 134

What you thought was logic was, in fact, wrong. And what you explained was wrong to people, they actually damn near nailed right on the button.

Healthy, those players would have done almost exactly what you said was impossible. They would have -- and thus SHOULD have been projected as if they -- received the vast majority of those targets, and projecting them the way you suggested would have been flat out incorrect and useless.

The way "real" football works is that the best players get the huge majority of the looks, and projecting them ought to take up most or all of a QB's projected value, with no thought whatsoever given to the scrubs. Because the only way they come into play is in replacement duty when the studs get hurt of miss time for murdering people, and such.

The way those numbers scale back, is because in the actual seasons, guys get hurt and miss time. But you're doing poor projections if you try to account for that before the season, because you have exactly zero idea who's going to miss time and why. Unless somebody is already dealing with health or other issues that more or less assure they will miss time, the only correct way to project them is for 16 games.

Your way is, sorry, just bad math. You're not trying to project players' roles in the offense, you're trying to guess what will happen, and that's sloppy analysis.

You still account for what history logically says will come for the backup players. But you don't subtract that from the starters' projections, because logic and history have nothing to do with figuring out which guys will get hurt. Do that, and you're practicing astrology, not statistics.

If your projections for the entire team's receiving totals aren't well in excess of your projected totals for the QB at the start of the season, you have botched your projections.

Except you can't pick and choose statistics. what you are saying that they COULD have done didn't happen. When you look at the year end stats, it did not turn out that way. Why? Because both AH and Gronk missed significant time . . . which increased the targets of the other guys.

I did not list all the things that people were suggesting/projecting about the Pats last year, as that really is not the point of this thread. Targets were just one piece of the puzzle. People were saying:

Welker 120-1500-10

Lloyd 90-1200-10

Gronk 90-1400-15

AH 80-1100-10

That would add up to 380-5200-45 from just from 4 guys. But there were other WR, TE and RBs on the roster. And when you add in 100+ receptions, 1,300 yards, and 8-10 TD from their "other" receivers/players (as most teams have), it would add up to 480 completions, 6500 passing yards, and 53-55 TD (which was not going to happen).

I realize that not everyone is projecting Thomas to be a beast this year, but it seems like there are a handful suggesting he have 70-80 receptions. And there are plenty of folks projecting the Big 3 to each have 1,000 receiving yards. With 70-80 receptions, that would likely be a 4th receiver with that many receptions and 1,000 yards. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't. But as far as I know there has never been a team with 4 guys in either of those categories (70+ receptions or 1,000 receiving yards).

 

[shadyridr]

I used the same logic to try to explain to people last year that what people were projecting from the NE offense was also a virtual impossibility. People wanted to project 180 targets for Welker, 130 targets for Lloyd, 130 targets for Gronk, and 130 targets for Hernandez. Plus there were Edelman supporters, Woodhead to consider, etc. Bottom line, when you added it all up, Brady needed to throw the ball 750 times and would have needed a 7000/70 season for all the players to hit what some people had for individual projections. The only way out of it to scale back on the totals for Brady was to allocate 98% of the production from 4 guys and no one else would ever see the ball . . . ever.

Real football doesn't work that way.

Last year's targets/16 games:

Welker - 174

Lloyd - 130

Gronk (projected from his 10 healthy games) - 127

Hernandez (projected from his 10 healthy games) - 134

Wow you realize Gronk & Hernandez missed a bunch of games last year boosting the targets for the other guys, right? You cant project out targets

 

[FlapJacks]

Look at GB last year

Cobb 108

Jones 112

Finley 94

Nelson 86

Jennings 76

That's FIVE guys with healthy target numbers

 

[shadyridr]

Look at GB last year

Cobb 108

Jones 112

Finley 94

Nelson 86

Jennings 76

That's FIVE guys with healthy target numbers

Nelson & Jennings missed HUGE chunks of time.If one of Denver's big 3 WRs get hurt I think we all agree, JT immediately becomes a TE1 as his targets will increase. None of those guys are hurt right now though.

 

[Anarchy99]

Look at GB last year

Cobb 108

Jones 112

Finley 94

Nelson 86

Jennings 76

That's FIVE guys with healthy target numbers

I have GB targets last year as . . .

Cobb 104

Jones 98

Finley 88

Nelson 73

Jennings 62

And of those, there were no 1,000 yard receivers and only one guy with 70+ catches.

 

[FlapJacks]

Look at GB last year

Cobb 108

Jones 112

Finley 94

Nelson 86

Jennings 76

That's FIVE guys with healthy target numbers

I have GB targets last year as . . .

Cobb 104

Jones 98

Finley 88

Nelson 73

Jennings 62

And of those, there were no 1,000 yard receivers and only one guy with 70+ catches.

?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/teams/teampage-gnb-1.php

 

[Two Deep]

I see no reason to think Thomas can't come in around #8 TE week one. He has Peyton Manning and is going against a defense that lost its heart and soul in the middle...Lewis and Reed. This isn't your normal Ravens D. I know, I know, but he has to compete with D. Thomas, Decker and Welker for targets. I've said it before and will say it again manning can care less who is target 1-4. If you are open first you get the ball .

 

[FlapJacks]

Look at Indy

Wayne 213(!)

Hilton 103

Avery 131

Fleener 53

Allen 72

If 1 of those TEs becomes the primary option 100 targets is absolutely within reach

if Wayne shares some of that 213...

 

[shadyridr]

I see no reason to think Thomas can't come in around #8 TE week one. He has Peyton Manning and is going against a defense that lost its heart and soul in the middle...Lewis and Reed. This isn't your normal Ravens D. I know, I know, but he has to compete with D. Thomas, Decker and Welker for targets. I've said it before and will say it again manning can care less who is target 1-4. If you are open first you get the ball .

So who do you think is gonna get open first? Studs like DT & Welker or a "nobody" like JT?

 

[Anarchy99]

Every year and every week is different, and just because things happened one way in one game does not mean it will happen the same the next game. I also realize the Ravens are a different team now.

Games vs. BAL last year:

First game:

Decker 8-133-1

DThomas 4-13-0

Dreesen 2-36-0

Moreno 2-8-0

Stokley 1-14-0

Playoff game:

Decker 6-84-0

Dreesen 6-46-0

Tamme 3-44-0

DThomas 3-37-1

Stokley 3-27-1

Hillman 3-20-0

Hester 1-7-0

Willis 1-4-0

People, I am sure, will look at that in all different ways. Some will say take the TE totals and half of Stokley's numbers and allocate them to JT. Others will say other than Decker, no one really stood out in those games. Others still will say this is a new team against a reshaped defense that will run the hurry up and therefore DEN could have 400 passing yards this game. All of those could be valid arguments, so I am not even going to bother to argue any of those points. People can come to their own conclusions.

 

[Two Deep]

I see no reason to think Thomas can't come in around #8 TE week one. He has Peyton Manning and is going against a defense that lost its heart and soul in the middle...Lewis and Reed. This isn't your normal Ravens D. I know, I know, but he has to compete with D. Thomas, Decker and Welker for targets. I've said it before and will say it again manning can care less who is target 1-4. If you are open first you get the ball .

So who do you think is gonna get open first? Studs like DT & Welker or a "nobody" like JT?

So who do you think is going to draw the best coverage men studs like like DT & Welker or a nobody like JT.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Considering Tamme, Dreesen, and Green are still on the roster I think youre insane if you project Thomas to get more than 48 of those remaining 75 catches.

When Clark became the primary TE in IND under Manning, he caught over 78% of the TE completions - coincidentally Tamme happened to be on those teams also.

If lightning strikes twice and Thomas is at least as good as Clark, given your breakdown Thomas could actually be in for up to 59 catches, mental impairment of the prognosticator not withstanding.

 

[Wilfredo Ledezma]

Look at the hype train thread last year. I think they even predicted bigger #'s than this thread on the strength of PS hype. PS is largely meaningless.

 

[Wilfredo Ledezma]

In over Ed Dickson (had Pitta). Sitting for Witten and Jordan Cameron.

i'd play Dickson.

 

[Clifford]

Dropped Gates for him, starting him with confidence over Myers.

Let's forget stats and target numbers for a second. What happens every single week 1 for the past umpteen seasons? Previously unknown or unheralded players come out and have huge games. People remember Ogletree from 2012 wk1, but there was also Stephen Hill with huge numbers out of nowhere, Sanchez played like a HOF QB, McCluster had 80+ yards, as did Andrew Hawkins.

Week 1 is the time for the players that are not keyed on in film study to go off. Now, surely they are going to be looking at Thomas's preseason tape, but where will he stack in focus compared to DT, Welker, and even Decker? The Ravens are going to focus on stopping them, and rely on LBs to cover JT. I think this is the perfect situation for a week 1 blowup: Great QB, 1st time starter, not much tape on the guy, great preseason, physical beast, plenty of more established players to draw defensive focus away in game-planning.

JT will be in the top five TEs this week. Book it.

 

[Wilfredo Ledezma]

Yea maybe if Dreesen and Tamme weren't still on the team then maybe. I just don't see the upside. Not even Manning can support 4 pass catchers consistently. Next year maybe.

This is a thread for starting him week 1 specifically...

Dreesen isn't playing and JT is gonna get the super majority of the snaps. The other TEs are a non-issue for this week (and imo most weeks).

unless by specifically, you mean specifically. Look at the freaking thread title.

 

[Wilfredo Ledezma]

Dropped Gates for him, starting him with confidence over Myers.

Let's forget stats and target numbers for a second. What happens every single week 1 for the past umpteen seasons? Previously unknown or unheralded players come out and have huge games. People remember Ogletree from 2012 wk1, but there was also Stephen Hill with huge numbers out of nowhere, Sanchez played like a HOF QB, McCluster had 80+ yards, as did Andrew Hawkins.

Week 1 is the time for the players that are not keyed on in film study to go off. Now, surely they are going to be looking at Thomas's preseason tape, but where will he stack in focus compared to DT, Welker, and even Decker? The Ravens are going to focus on stopping them, and rely on LBs to cover JT. I think this is the perfect situation for a week 1 blowup: Great QB, 1st time starter, not much tape on the guy, great preseason, physical beast, plenty of more established players to draw defensive focus away in game-planning.

JT will be in the top five TEs this week. Book it.

This was better schtick when it was Andy Kauffmans alter ego, Now you just look insane,

 

[Clifford]

OK, it happens every year.

 

[FDC]

Look at the hype train thread last year. I think they even predicted bigger #'s than this thread on the strength of PS hype. PS is largely meaningless.

I don't remember any projections at all

He hasn't been healthy or the starter

 

[Wilfredo Ledezma]

Look at GB last year

Cobb 108

Jones 112

Finley 94

Nelson 86

Jennings 76

That's FIVE guys with healthy target numbers

DEN D is too good to necessitate Peyton thrown that much at his age. That was an anomole based on virtually nonexistant running game and defense in GB last year, oh and having the best QB in the game in his prime helps a bit too.

 

[Two Deep]

Here's the thing...people are reluctant to go with Thomas because we have no historical data on him. We do have this though, he is starting and he has Peyton Manning throwing the ball to him. Kyle Rudolf is ranked around number 8 this week and he has Christian Ponder throwing to him.

 

[houston]

What is Manning's history of throwing to TE? Numbers skewed because of skill of Clark in his prime?

 

[FlapJacks]

Look at GB last year

Cobb 108

Jones 112

Finley 94

Nelson 86

Jennings 76

That's FIVE guys with healthy target numbers

DEN D is too good to necessitate Peyton thrown that much at his age. That was an anomole based on virtually nonexistant running game and defense in GB last year, oh and having the best QB in the game in his prime helps a bit too.

Rodgers only threw 553 passes last year

Manning, with that vaunted D, threw 583 and they are going hurry up this year

 

[Run It Up]

In over Ed Dickson (had Pitta). Sitting for Witten and Jordan Cameron.

i'd play Dickson.

I wouldn't play Dickson if he was my only TE...

 

[Phenix]

4 pages, wow!

 

[Amused to Death]

4 pages, wow!

Just wait till tomorrow.

 

[ffldrew]

Julius Thomas arrested for failure to appear

 

[rascal]

lol....denver needs a fulltime babysitter

 

[ffldrew]

lol....denver needs a fulltime babysitter

No effin kidding - it's unbelievable. Hearkens back to the Clarence Kay days.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Julius Thomas arrested for failure to appear

This is pretty..non consequential no?

 

[Run It Up]

Julius Thomas arrested for failure to appear

This is pretty..non consequential no?

Id assume it will have no impact, although it reflects pretty poorly on his character. What an idiot.

 

[BigJilm]

A local take with some homerism thrown in:

JT was all the rage as a very raw rookie. Cecil Lammey gushed about him so much that JT is a prime example of why most of what Lammey says is taken with a huge grain of salt. Truth of the matter is, he was that good as a raw rookie. His one catch that season was in the first game, might have been first drive, and even might have been first pass of the season. He was out there as a rookie with the starters on the vey first drive. That reception was when he got hurt and was out the rest of the year.

Last offseason Manning was all rage. Local news kept up with Manning throwing to Decker at a local highschool. More and more receivers began to show up for these informal practices. The second name I heard of joining was JT. It was here that Manning and the other receivers (and coaches) all advised him to ditch the season and get healthy. He could have played but then entering this season he would still have a lingering issue and eventually would need to bite the bullet.

This past offseason he's been healthy and is all the rage again. It's not like Manning is wondering where this kid came from. He knew exactly what he had in JT his first week in Denver. That would be a still raw but incredibly athletic receiving threat. IMHO, Manning will look to take advantage of the mismatches that JT will draw on a regular basis.

I think JT finishes top ten this year and is a lock for top 5 for the next 5-6 years. This year, I predict he lines up at move or in-line when one TE is on the field. He will also fill one of those roles when two TE's are on the field. Basically, he will see the field a lot and I predict enough production that he'll end up a TE1. Health is my only concern.

Edit: His one reception was in the second game his rookie year. He was listed as out four of the next five and then suited up for a couple games before being out the rest of the year.

 

[ffldrew]

Julius Thomas arrested for failure to appear

This is pretty..non consequential no?

Id assume it will have no impact, although it reflects pretty poorly on his character. What an idiot.

I think there is some small impact from the distraction - not much and hopefully he can block all of that out. But the common theme of players in trouble here in Denver,however minor, keeps popping up and he'll have to answer questions - so will Fox about his "out of control" team.

 

[Anarchy99]

A local take with some homerism thrown in:

JT was all the rage as a very raw rookie. Cecil Lammey gushed about him so much that JT is a prime example of why most of what Lammey says is taken with a huge grain of salt. Truth of the matter is, he was that good as a raw rookie. His one catch that season was in the first game, might have been first drive, and even might have been first pass of the season. He was out there as a rookie with the starters on the vey first drive. That reception was when he got hurt and was out the rest of the year.

Last offseason Manning was all rage. Local news kept up with Manning throwing to Decker at a local highschool. More and more receivers began to show up for these informal practices. The second name I heard of joining was JT. It was here that Manning and the other receivers (and coaches) all advised him to ditch the season and get healthy. He could have played but then entering this season he would still have a lingering issue and eventually would need to bite the bullet.

This past offseason he's been healthy and is all the rage again. It's not like Manning is wondering where this kid came from. He knew exactly what he had in JT his first week in Denver. That would be a still raw but incredibly athletic receiving threat. IMHO, Manning will look to take advantage of the mismatches that JT will draw on a regular basis.

I think JT finishes top ten this year and is a lock for top 5 for the next 5-6 years. This year, I predict he lines up at move or in-line when one TE is on the field. He will also fill one of those roles when two TE's are on the field. Basically, he will see the field a lot and I predict enough production that he'll end up a TE1. Health is my only concern.

Appreciate the local insight. But I would still ask, what happens to the 3 other TEs? Do they just stay on the sidelines and not play and never see the football? And what about the 3 main receivers? Are people way overpredicting/overprojecting how well they will do? As I have been harping all along, it will be very difficult to feed 4 mouths at a top tier level on a regular basis.

 

[BigJilm]

I don't expect all four mouths to be fed on a regular basis. First in line for a dud would be Thomas. Maybe I've just had bad luck with TE production. I fully expect my TE to have dud games. I also expect he'll have average games and great games. Detractors will jump all over his dud games (maybe tonight) and say that they never fell for the hype. I'm not going to be down on the duds unless it's a pattern where his year end totals won't match other TE1.

I think the other TE's just get scraps and aren't worth rostering whatsoever outside of an injury. I do bleed Bronco blue so my opinion should probably be taken with a grain of salt as well. I'm expecting good things from JT but perhaps am hopeful for them as well.

ETA: I am starting him over Olsen in a dynasty league. With a gun to my head I'd say 4-69-1. If the gun is loaded....4-45-0.

 

[Run It Up]

I don't expect all four mouths to be fed on a regular basis. First in line for a dud would be Thomas. Maybe I've just had bad luck with TE production. I fully expect my TE to have dud games. I also expect he'll have average games and great games. Detractors will jump all over his dud games (maybe tonight) and say that they never fell for the hype. I'm not going to be down on the duds unless it's a pattern where his year end totals won't match other TE1.

I think the other TE's just get scraps and aren't worth rostering whatsoever outside of an injury. I do bleed Bronco blue so my opinion should probably be taken with a grain of salt as well. I'm expecting good things from JT but perhaps am hopeful for them as well.

ETA: I am starting him over Olsen in a dynasty league. With a gun to my head I'd say 4-69-1. If the gun is loaded....4-45-0.

How do you figure? He will likely be on the field more than one of the 3 WRs.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

4 pages, wow!

Just wait till tomorrow.

Tomorrow? Wait until the end of Denver's first drive when JT has three catches.

 

[Amused to Death]

4 pages, wow!

Just wait till tomorrow.

Tomorrow? Wait until the end of Denver's first drive when JT has three catches.

I'm hoping for that outcome, but either way this thread's gonna blow up after the game (or during it).

 

[We Tigers]

4 pages, wow!

Just wait till tomorrow.

Tomorrow? Wait until the end of Denver's first drive when JT has three catches.

Best-case scenario for an entertaining thread is that they're three catches for a total of, like, 11 yards.

 

[BigJilm]

I don't expect all four mouths to be fed on a regular basis. First in line for a dud would be Thomas. Maybe I've just had bad luck with TE production. I fully expect my TE to have dud games. I also expect he'll have average games and great games. Detractors will jump all over his dud games (maybe tonight) and say that they never fell for the hype. I'm not going to be down on the duds unless it's a pattern where his year end totals won't match other TE1.

I think the other TE's just get scraps and aren't worth rostering whatsoever outside of an injury. I do bleed Bronco blue so my opinion should probably be taken with a grain of salt as well. I'm expecting good things from JT but perhaps am hopeful for them as well.

ETA: I am starting him over Olsen in a dynasty league. With a gun to my head I'd say 4-69-1. If the gun is loaded....4-45-0.

How do you figure? He will likely be on the field more than one of the 3 WRs.

I'm not sure what you mean. You think my prediction is low and that he'll see the field a bunch and score higher or the only way my prediction holds true is if he sees the field more than you expect? Either way, I felt my game prediction was middle of the road and possibly conservative given the hype. Time will tell. Trying to look at it impartially, you've got a starting TE who appears to have good receiving abilities. He'll be playing in one of the more potent offenses in the league this year led by a 37yo Manning. I think it's a great bet or gamble that he exceeds most TE's in the league.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

4 pages, wow!

Just wait till tomorrow.

Tomorrow? Wait until the end of Denver's first drive when JT has three catches.

Best-case scenario for an entertaining thread is that they're three catches for a total of, like, 11 yards.

...and two drops.

 

[Run It Up]

4 pages, wow!

Just wait till tomorrow.

Tomorrow? Wait until the end of Denver's first drive when JT has three catches.

Best-case scenario for an entertaining thread is that they're three catches for a total of, like, 11 yards.

...and two drops.

...and three TDs

 

[FlapJacks]

4 pages, wow!

Just wait till tomorrow.

Tomorrow? Wait until the end of Denver's first drive when JT has three catches.

Best-case scenario for an entertaining thread is that they're three catches for a total of, like, 11 yards.

...and two drops.

and a TD

 

[We Tigers]

7 targets, 3 catches, 11 yards, 2 drops, 1 TD, one fumble returned for a touchdown, one whiffed block on Dumervil and a sack on Manning. Then he sits on the bench with a towel on his head but makes a great tackle on special teams. 26 pages by Tuesday, baby.

 

[Anarchy99]

Lucky for him, he's not on NE or he'd have been cut by now.

 

[Run It Up]

7 targets, 3 catches, 11 yards, 2 drops, 1 TD, one fumble returned for a touchdown, one whiffed block on Dumervil and a sack on Manning. Then he sits on the bench with a towel on his head but makes a great tackle on special teams. 26 pages by Tuesday, baby.

Fumble recovery and a complete pass to himself, Brees-esque.

 

[yoadrian]

C'mon page 5!

Seriously though, this is a guy not in the top 200 adp, so I'd argue that even mediocre production is something here

 

[Clifford]

A local take with some homerism thrown in:

JT was all the rage as a very raw rookie. Cecil Lammey gushed about him so much that JT is a prime example of why most of what Lammey says is taken with a huge grain of salt. Truth of the matter is, he was that good as a raw rookie. His one catch that season was in the first game, might have been first drive, and even might have been first pass of the season. He was out there as a rookie with the starters on the vey first drive. That reception was when he got hurt and was out the rest of the year.

Last offseason Manning was all rage. Local news kept up with Manning throwing to Decker at a local highschool. More and more receivers began to show up for these informal practices. The second name I heard of joining was JT. It was here that Manning and the other receivers (and coaches) all advised him to ditch the season and get healthy. He could have played but then entering this season he would still have a lingering issue and eventually would need to bite the bullet.

This past offseason he's been healthy and is all the rage again. It's not like Manning is wondering where this kid came from. He knew exactly what he had in JT his first week in Denver. That would be a still raw but incredibly athletic receiving threat. IMHO, Manning will look to take advantage of the mismatches that JT will draw on a regular basis.

I think JT finishes top ten this year and is a lock for top 5 for the next 5-6 years. This year, I predict he lines up at move or in-line when one TE is on the field. He will also fill one of those roles when two TE's are on the field. Basically, he will see the field a lot and I predict enough production that he'll end up a TE1. Health is my only concern.

Appreciate the local insight. But I would still ask, what happens to the 3 other TEs? Do they just stay on the sidelines and not play and never see the football? And what about the 3 main receivers? Are people way overpredicting/overprojecting how well they will do? As I have been harping all along, it will be very difficult to feed 4 mouths at a top tier level on a regular basis.

Dreesen is hurt. Virgil Green is nothing. Tamme isn't all that great. JT is starting and has had by far the best camp. Why on earth is this such a hard scenario for you to imagine?

 

[Clifford]

Lucky for him, he's not on NE or he'd have been cut by now.

Is analysis like this why you are no longer on staff?