Julius Thomas week 1...starting him with confidence? (1 Viewer)

[opensourcebeer]

ouch! A guy in one of my leagues dropped Julius Thomas today before the game and picked up Brent Celek

Julius Thomas was on waivers in my league, but I passed on him because I had Celek and because I'd never seen Julius play before. I actually searched for some preseason highlights of Julius Thomas on youtube and couldn't find any, so I said screw it and decided to stick with Celek.

So much regret...

I hear you.

Here's the thing. Preseason matters. As much as some random guy on the internet says it doesn't, it does.

Anybody that has JThomas on their roster, watched the preseason games. Anybody that started JThomas tonight realized that having an elite QB makes the TE.

 

[Garrett]

It's so funny when people bite so hard on the hook they miss the glaring item right in front of their face.

I'll go my $1000 to your $750 on those exact terms in red.

You got what he wrote wrong, and have lol'd about it for ten posts since? Have more beer, man.

I get what he's saying... He wants to go 4/3 in my favor to discount tonight... Why would I do that? Tonight was a regular season game.

A top 5 finish requires a full regular season.

You offered a bet and Icon called it.

 

[Eminence]

You've got to love that. When you consider that Peyton gets to beat up on the Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders TWICE a year. You want as many pieces of the Denver Offense as possible.

 

[fantasycurse42]

It's so funny when people bite so hard on the hook they miss the glaring item right in front of their face.

I'll go my $1000 to your $750 on those exact terms in red.

You got what he wrote wrong, and have lol'd about it for ten posts since? Have more beer, man.

I get what he's saying... He wants to go 4/3 in my favor to discount tonight... Why would I do that? Tonight was a regular season game.

A top 5 finish requires a full regular season.

You offered a bet and Icon called it.

I feel like this is an episode from the twilight zone and everyone is insane, except me - he didn't call ####, he refuses to include tonight at even money. What am I missing here & why wouldn't tonight count?

 

[Run It Up]

Just wanna say, this was hilarious. I got to sit right across from the guy I was playing and tell him before the game that I thought JT was gonna have a big game.

#YOLO #DT+JT

 

[Garrett]

It's so funny when people bite so hard on the hook they miss the glaring item right in front of their face.

I'll go my $1000 to your $750 on those exact terms in red.

You got what he wrote wrong, and have lol'd about it for ten posts since? Have more beer, man.

I get what he's saying... He wants to go 4/3 in my favor to discount tonight... Why would I do that? Tonight was a regular season game.

A top 5 finish requires a full regular season.

You offered a bet and Icon called it.

I feel like this is an episode from the twilight zone and everyone is insane, except me - he didn't call ####, he refuses to include tonight at even money. What am I missing here & why wouldn't tonight count?

Tonight counts. Top 5 TE is an end of season ranking, which requires a full season.

 

[fantasycurse42]

It's so funny when people bite so hard on the hook they miss the glaring item right in front of their face.

I'll go my $1000 to your $750 on those exact terms in red.

You got what he wrote wrong, and have lol'd about it for ten posts since? Have more beer, man.

I get what he's saying... He wants to go 4/3 in my favor to discount tonight... Why would I do that? Tonight was a regular season game.

A top 5 finish requires a full regular season.

You offered a bet and Icon called it.

I feel like this is an episode from the twilight zone and everyone is insane, except me - he didn't call ####, he refuses to include tonight at even money. What am I missing here & why wouldn't tonight count?

Tonight counts. Top 5 TE is an end of season ranking, which requires a full season.

Exactly

 

[Garrett]

It's so funny when people bite so hard on the hook they miss the glaring item right in front of their face.

I'll go my $1000 to your $750 on those exact terms in red.

You got what he wrote wrong, and have lol'd about it for ten posts since? Have more beer, man.

I get what he's saying... He wants to go 4/3 in my favor to discount tonight... Why would I do that? Tonight was a regular season game.

A top 5 finish requires a full regular season.

You offered a bet and Icon called it.

I feel like this is an episode from the twilight zone and everyone is insane, except me - he didn't call ####, he refuses to include tonight at even money. What am I missing here & why wouldn't tonight count?

Tonight counts. Top 5 TE is an end of season ranking, which requires a full season.

Exactly

The only thing you didn't specify is PPR or non PPR; which could factor in if it comes down to 5th or 6th place finish. In light of that, if standard vs PPR scoring changes the end result of the wager; I would call it a push. Outside of that though, 16 games and see where it stands.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I suppose it was only a matter of time before this thread devolved haha,

I think it's rather safe to assume he's a TE1 now but it's not a very hard group to crack. Do you think he finishes top 5? Top 3?

I do think this will likely be one of if his best games of the season (as I doubt Peyton goes off quite like this again) but what are you guys expecting weekly now? If Decker truly is the odd man out JT will be in line for a very healthy amount of targets weekly.

 

[Sweetness_34]

talk about wishful thinking

Lol... First play... First read.

Second read on that 3rd and 3. I think I'll rest my case and enjoy the game.

Reads? lol What do those get you?

When we are talking about reads, not TDs and Catches, I think you rest the people saying you shouldn't start him's case.

I was debating those who were referring to him as "the 4th option." I was called out for saying he'd be a top read on a lot of plays. I wasn't talking about FF production. Thanks, though.

congrats he was first read on one play!

Hey stupid - nice call with the 3 catches as upside.

 

[Sweetness_34]

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

Lol...you are indeed stupid

sweetness agrees with you guys

Hey stupid - upside is 3 catches?

 

[ImTheScientist]

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

Lol...you are indeed stupid

sweetness agrees with you guys

Hey stupid - upside is 3 catches?

 

[Run It Up]

In over Ed Dickson (had Pitta). Sitting for Witten and Jordan Cameron.

i'd play Dickson.

My condolences to anyone that thought Dickson was a fantasy relevant player in any format.

 

[CoachJankySpanky]

It's so funny when people bite so hard on the hook they miss the glaring item right in front of their face.

I'll go my $1000 to your $750 on those exact terms in red.

You got what he wrote wrong, and have lol'd about it for ten posts since? Have more beer, man.

And yet some people still don't see it

Julius' week 1 stats won't count but all other TEs week 1 games will count since they happened after tonight?

 

[LargeMouthBass]

It's only one game people. Don't get too excited.

 

[Run It Up]

It's only one game people. Don't get too excited.

 

[ShaHBucks]

336 new post since I last checked. Wtf

 

[BigSteelThrill]

It's only one game people. Don't get too excited.

Mannings total TE production year-by-year...

45 612 5

74 853 6

77 977 6

79 1082 9

53 582 7

72 904 4

58 765 11

67 965 8

85 946 6

============= rule changes

107 1128 12

109 1130 7

120 1310 10

112 1029 8

============= hurt

99 985 7

 

[v12themonster]

What is the waiver $ ammount to put down out of 100 for Julius?

 

[FlapJacks]

Early contender for thread of the year

 

[Possum]

It's so funny when people bite so hard on the hook they miss the glaring item right in front of their face.

I'll go my $1000 to your $750 on those exact terms in red.

You got what he wrote wrong, and have lol'd about it for ten posts since? Have more beer, man.

 

[pantherclub]

What kind of drafts did you guys have that youd even consider starting this guy?

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

I cannot stop laughing at this

 

[shadyridr]

What kind of drafts did you guys have that youd even consider starting this guy?

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

I cannot stop laughing at this

Get over it, jeez. Ive already eaten my crow.

Last time I make a comment on a player I didnt see play. The kid is a beast and I was wrong. Gonna try and bid on him in one league and hes already drafted in another.

 

[pantherclub]

Why are people like you even on these boards? We have a full preseason worth of stats and plays to digest on Thomas. We have a man on the ground giving us updates from practice and other local input. And you mock the people that started him. This is why this particular board rules is because it gives us a heads up on players like Thomas or Alfred morris from last year.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Why are people like you even on these boards? We have a full preseason worth of stats and plays to digest on Thomas. We have a man on the ground giving us updates from practice and other local input. And you mock the people that started him. This is why this particular board rules is because it gives us a heads up on players like Thomas or Alfred morris from last year.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I hope you started him because this is likely his best game of the year.

U mad bro?

Not at all, I just find it unlikely that he produces better than this the rest of the year.

He'll still be a contributor on offense and a top 5 TE

Care to wager on Thomas being a Top 5 TE going forward for the balance of the season after tonight?

. Wait. You want to take away the performance? You going to take away every other player's best game to?

 

[shadyridr]

Why are people like you even on these boards? We have a full preseason worth of stats and plays to digest on Thomas. We have a man on the ground giving us updates from practice and other local input. And you mock the people that started him. This is why this particular board rules is because it gives us a heads up on players like Thomas or Alfred morris from last year.

Yeah thats all I did was mock. I didnt offer any statistical analysis whatsoever in this thread why I didnt think hed get the targets. Nope just came in here to mock. That was all.

 

[finito]

What kind of drafts did you guys have that youd even consider starting this guy?

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

I cannot stop laughing at this

Get over it, jeez. Ive already eaten my crow.

Last time I make a comment on a player I didnt see play. The kid is a beast and I was wrong. Gonna try and bid on him in one league and hes already drafted in another.

Good posting, now let's put it to rest.

I'm curious as to how it'll play out now that the "secret" is out - other teams will incorporate him into their defensive schemes a bit more and there are still 3 very good WRs to share balls with. Safe to assume Manning won't be doing this every week so there will be less to go around. I'd feel much safer about Thomas if there weren't so many other weapons there, though obviously Thomas looks like the real thing. Wondering if Decker is the odd man out, though he still got 7 targets and could have had a TD.

 

[[icon]]

It's so funny when people bite so hard on the hook they miss the glaring item right in front of their face.

I'll go my $1000 to your $750 on those exact terms in red.

You got what he wrote wrong, and have lol'd about it for ten posts since? Have more beer, man.

And yet some people still don't see it

Julius' week 1 stats won't count but all other TEs week 1 games will count since they happened after tonight?

And FINALLY someone sees the hook in the bait

 

[habsfan]

What kind of drafts did you guys have that youd even consider starting this guy?

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

I cannot stop laughing at this

Get over it, jeez. Ive already eaten my crow.

Last time I make a comment on a player I didnt see play. The kid is a beast and I was wrong. Gonna try and bid on him in one league and hes already drafted in another.

Good posting, now let's put it to rest.

I'm curious as to how it'll play out now that the "secret" is out - other teams will incorporate him into their defensive schemes a bit more and there are still 3 very good WRs to share balls with. Safe to assume Manning won't be doing this every week so there will be less to go around. I'd feel much safer about Thomas if there weren't so many other weapons there, though obviously Thomas looks like the real thing. Wondering if Decker is the odd man out, though he still got 7 targets and could have had a TD.

The odd man out could change from game to game or quarter to quarter.

He had a great game. We know Manning will go to him and we know he can deliver results. If there are any leagues where he wasn't rostered, that's obviously going to change but he's still in a situation that could produce a lot of volatility in his numbers.

 

[FDC]

As for defensive scheme changes...

Denver's O was better after Jules blew up. D coord's still might view JT as the weak link going in to week 2.

Welker and JT and Decker are all extremely dangerous underneath threats. If you take away the underneath stuff seams will open up high over the middle.

Then again I'm sure it will be a pendulum type situation with possible multiple swings in just 1 game.

 

[fantasycurse42]

It's so funny when people bite so hard on the hook they miss the glaring item right in front of their face.

I'll go my $1000 to your $750 on those exact terms in red.

You got what he wrote wrong, and have lol'd about it for ten posts since? Have more beer, man.

And yet some people still don't see it

The fact that you've posted 63k times speaks volumes...

Now that I'm on the laptop and have some good Friday time to kill before the weekend, we dive into Icon's 63,000 posts & break down the life implications below:

Average post between long and short probably about 2 minutes - For every post someone makes, they're probably on the site for another 8 minutes browsing (1 to 4 posting vs browsing) That is 10 minutes x 63,000 = 630,000 minutes = 10,500 hours = 437 days = 1.2 YEARS ON FOOTBALLGUYS.COM!

While most of us have been out graduating college, developing careers, earning money, banging chicks, getting married, having kids, etc over the last 10 years, ICON HAS SPENT ABOUT 12% OF HIS ENTIRE LIFE OVER THE PAST DECADE ON THIS FORUM!!!

Let's take a stab at the remaining 88% of his life:

12% on Footballguys.com - They should send him a gift basket

8% World of Warcraft - 2004 - 2007 (right after dial-up became extinct)

50% sleeping

5% whacking it

25% trolling the internet

You know who Icon is? He is the guy that ruins your random anonymous mock draft because that is how he passes time and entertains himself...

 

[FlapJacks]

Having four mouths to feed that are all very capable looks like it will be near impossible to stop...

 

[fantasycurse42]

What kind of drafts did you guys have that youd even consider starting this guy?

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

I cannot stop laughing at this

Get over it, jeez. Ive already eaten my crow.

Last time I make a comment on a player I didnt see play. The kid is a beast and I was wrong. Gonna try and bid on him in one league and hes already drafted in another.

Good posting, now let's put it to rest.

I'm curious as to how it'll play out now that the "secret" is out - other teams will incorporate him into their defensive schemes a bit more and there are still 3 very good WRs to share balls with. Safe to assume Manning won't be doing this every week so there will be less to go around. I'd feel much safer about Thomas if there weren't so many other weapons there, though obviously Thomas looks like the real thing. Wondering if Decker is the odd man out, though he still got 7 targets and could have had a TD.

The odd man out could change from game to game or quarter to quarter.

He had a great game. We know Manning will go to him and we know he can deliver results. If there are any leagues where he wasn't rostered, that's obviously going to change but he's still in a situation that could produce a lot of volatility in his numbers.

Decker not only was the odd man out, but looked awful!!

Bad routes, dropped passes (including one in the end-zone, offensive pass interference, & a fumble) - I have him in one league and almost want him to become the odd man, that way JT can flourish even further!

 

[buck naked]

It's only one game people. Don't get too excited.

If you cannot see what his athletic ability brings to the table, together with the fact that a linebacker cannot cover him, then you have an analysis problem.

 

[Two Deep]

What kind of drafts did you guys have that youd even consider starting this guy?

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

I cannot stop laughing at this

Get over it, jeez. Ive already eaten my crow.

Last time I make a comment on a player I didnt see play. The kid is a beast and I was wrong. Gonna try and bid on him in one league and hes already drafted in another.

I call for all other Footballguys to lay off shadyridr. It takes a man to admit when he is wrong and he manned up. Nice Job.

 

[fantasycurse42]

What kind of drafts did you guys have that youd even consider starting this guy?

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

I cannot stop laughing at this

Get over it, jeez. Ive already eaten my crow.

Last time I make a comment on a player I didnt see play. The kid is a beast and I was wrong. Gonna try and bid on him in one league and hes already drafted in another.

I call for all other Footballguys to lay off shadyridr. It takes a man to admit when he is wrong and he manned up. Nice Job.

Agreed - He can now get on the JT bandwagon...

I think this performance now makes Dreessen and Tamme useless even at full health.

JT also had a pretty decent game blocking which hopefully means he gets 98% of the offensive snaps

 

[Two Deep]

What kind of drafts did you guys have that youd even consider starting this guy?

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

I cannot stop laughing at this

Get over it, jeez. Ive already eaten my crow.

Last time I make a comment on a player I didnt see play. The kid is a beast and I was wrong. Gonna try and bid on him in one league and hes already drafted in another.

Good posting, now let's put it to rest.

I'm curious as to how it'll play out now that the "secret" is out - other teams will incorporate him into their defensive schemes a bit more and there are still 3 very good WRs to share balls with. Safe to assume Manning won't be doing this every week so there will be less to go around. I'd feel much safer about Thomas if there weren't so many other weapons there, though obviously Thomas looks like the real thing. Wondering if Decker is the odd man out, though he still got 7 targets and could have had a TD.

At Mannings age with his arm strength starting to diminish, in my opinion he will continue to work the shorter throws in the middle of the field. Which bodes well for Welker and J.Thomas. Lets face it D. Thomas didn't come into play until the game was decided/Balt D gave up and manning decided to stand on baltimores throat. At the half I believe JT had a stat line of 4-97 where DT was 1-13 or something like that.

 

[Clifford]

What is the waiver $ ammount to put down out of 100 for Julius?

$100

 

[Sinn Fein]

What kind of drafts did you guys have that youd even consider starting this guy?

his upside is like 3 catches. Of course one of those can be a TD I guess

I cannot stop laughing at this

Get over it, jeez. Ive already eaten my crow.

Last time I make a comment on a player I didnt see play. The kid is a beast and I was wrong. Gonna try and bid on him in one league and hes already drafted in another.

I call for all other Footballguys to lay off shadyridr. It takes a man to admit when he is wrong and he manned up. Nice Job.

Agreed - He can now get on the JT bandwagon...

I think this performance now makes Dreessen and Tamme useless even at full health.

JT also had a pretty decent game blocking which hopefully means he gets 98% of the offensive snaps

Is Tamme really hurt? I saw him on special teams last night. But your larger point is correct. Tamme is useless, barring injury to Orange Julius, and Dressen will have some limited value as the primary blocking TE, who will get some looks as a receiver.

 

[Sinn Fein]

I, like many others here, have him combined with Gronk, so I will start him out of necessity this week.

But, I do like Thomas to breakout this year - much like a 3rd year WR.

Not sure why folks are so constipated over starting Thomas this week. With the injuries at the TE position, this week may be the best week to start Thomas. He could easily be a top-5 TE this week, and a TE18 for the season as Dressen and Tamme get more play. I think he'll outperform his draft position, but even if he doesn't, I think he is a fine play this week if you have Gronk, or any number of mediocre TEs. I don't think anyone is talking about sitting Graham for him.

I am also expecting a relatively high scoring game - which should help.

I'll be here all week.

 

[FlapJacks]

JT's emergence has to help Moreno, because somebody's got to block

 

[yoadrian]

I like Dungy's analysis after half time that Manning hit JT on both TDs when they doubled Welker and left a LB on JT. That makes JT a redzone threat every week IMO and Manning unstoppable this year!

 

[Clifford]

JT's emergence has to help Moreno, because somebody's got to block

His blocking got much better throughout the game. The commentators talked about it extensively and showed several replays showing adequate blocking later in the game.

 

[Run It Up]

JT's emergence has to help Moreno, because somebody's got to block

His blocking got much better throughout the game. The commentators talked about it extensively and showed several replays showing adequate blocking later in the game.

He hip checked Suggs like 5 feet.

 

[cstu]

I like Dungy's analysis after half time that Manning hit JT on both TDs when they doubled Welker and left a LB on JT. That makes JT a redzone threat every week IMO and Manning unstoppable this year!

What was obvious last night is that JT is a mismatch against LB's but I'm not sure what defenses can do other than let Welker pick them apart. I really think Welker could break Harrison's 143 receptions record simply because defenses won't want to give up long TD's to DT and JT.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I like Dungy's analysis after half time that Manning hit JT on both TDs when they doubled Welker and left a LB on JT. That makes JT a redzone threat every week IMO and Manning unstoppable this year!

What was obvious last night is that JT is a mismatch against LB's but I'm not sure what defenses can do other than let Welker pick them apart. I really think Welker could break Harrison's 143 receptions record simply because defenses won't want to give up long TD's to DT and JT.

I think there are only two strategies against Denver - Blitz Blitz Blitz and hope for the best or put all your attention on D Thomas/Welker and make Decker/J Thomas beat you.

 

[FlapJacks]

JT's emergence has to help Moreno, because somebody's got to block

His blocking got much better throughout the game. The commentators talked about it extensively and showed several replays showing adequate blocking later in the game.

I agree, but if he's out running routes, he's not blocking

 

[[icon]]

It's only one game people. Don't get too excited.

If you cannot see what his athletic ability brings to the table, together with the fact that a linebacker cannot cover him, then you have an analysis problem.

I don't think it's an analysis problem, I think it's an options/coverage problem.

Denvers offense will be not unlike other explosive offenses with lots of tools (GBP/NOS/NEP). There will be up weeks and down weeks based on who's covered / doubled by whom. This takes nothing away from Thomas... just saying that this week's coming out party will plant him further on other teams' radars.

IMO Expect Manning to take what's given to him between Orange Julius/Welker/Decker/DeyThom/backfield. I wouldn't pencil him in for elite production week in and week out just yet.

Again... I own him. I'm very optimistic as well. Just trying to slow things down just a touch in here

 

[Run It Up]

It's only one game people. Don't get too excited.

If you cannot see what his athletic ability brings to the table, together with the fact that a linebacker cannot cover him, then you have an analysis problem.

I don't think it's an analysis problem, I think it's an options/coverage problem.

Denvers offense will be not unlike other explosive offenses with lots of tools (GBP/NOS/NEP). There will be up weeks and down weeks based on who's covered / doubled by whom. This takes nothing away from Thomas... just saying that this week's coming out party will plant him further on other teams' radars.

IMO Expect Manning to take what's given to him between Orange Julius/Welker/Decker/DeyThom/backfield. I wouldn't pencil him in for elite production week in and week out just yet.

Again... I own him. I'm very optimistic as well. Just trying to slow things down just a touch in here

This is why you should have drafted one of the WRs AND JT. :hawkscreech: