Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I and the KC homers may be the only people interested in reading a novella about Hemingway at this point, but I didn't see anything in a search so thought I'd start a thread on him and include a blog post.
I remember being sort of intrigued by this guy last year when he came out and went back to see what I thought before the 2012 draft:
The summary up there holds up pretty well despite some changes to the WR model -- Hemingway is a unique prospect. There's no one like him in the WR database -- and his projection ultimately ends up being semi-informed guesswork. Here are a few possible takes on him.
First, his relevant measurables:
NCAA Performance: +1.3 (above average -- on small sample)
Height: 72-7/8"
BMI/Size: 29.8 (Very Big)
Speed: 4.48 forty/1.54 10-split (average speed for size)
Explosion: 35.5" vert, 124 broad (average explosion)
Outside of his receiving measure, which is very good (possibly due to a limited role on a team that didn't throw much), that's not the profile of a WR -- receivers don't have BMIs in the high 29s. He's built like a tall RB -- specifically someone like Deshaun Foster or Le'Veon Bell.
However, there are a handful of other WRs that share this physical profile
• Rishard Matthews
• Niles Paul
• Josh Morgan
• Chris Harper
--Matthews is a 2nd year receiver trying to stick with the Dolphins in a backup and returner role.
--Niles Paul was converted to an undersized TE position.
--Josh Morgan is a blocking receiver who's never done a lot in terms of receiving.
--Chris Harper is a rookie.
Unfortunately these receivers are close to useless in projecting Hemingway because two of them are new to the NFL and none of them came out of college with an even average receiving metric. Hemingway should be better than they are.
Additionally, Hemingway's short-area quickness looks more like Dante Hall's than it does a guy carrying 225. His combined cone score is freakish for someone that size. Unfortunately I'm not sure how much a low score matters for tall players, or how much it matters for WRs. It's possible that kind of agility is only functionally useful for short WRs and/or RBs.
So while I'm confident saying that Hemingway should be better than the players above, I'm not at all confident what that might mean.
Adding to the uncertainty… if instead of looking only at the bad receivers who are a good match with his unique size we compare Hemingway to players who were similarly good as receivers, but whose size is only close instead of an exact match, we get:
• David Boston
• Hakeem Nicks
Both of these players came into the NFL with about average height, high BMIs (but not oversized), decent speed, average explosion and strong receiving scores.
The major differences are that both Nicks and Boston were far more accomplished collegiate wideouts than Hemingway (who caught only 66 balls his last two seasons) and both entered the league at twenty-one years old (to Hemingway’s twenty-three). The fact that Hemingway led the team in receptions and that Michigan only completed 155 passes his senior year mitigates the low catch total somewhat, but there’s no way to get around those dings – both of them typically act as downgrade a player’s prospects in the pros.
However, the David Boston comp is particularly intriguing. Since there are no WRs with both Hemingway’s size entering the league (the top group) and Hemingway’s on-field success in college (the bottom group – who are smaller than he is), the post-steroid David Boston may represent a best-case bridge between the two since he played at a BMI over 29.
The gap between “better than Josh Morgan” and “a roided up David Boston” is obviously enormous, and there’s no real way to tell where on that spectrum Hemingway may fall. There just aren’t enough good comparables in this case.
But both cases get him on the field, and given that Hemingway made the team after missing his rookie season with an injury, got some fairly high-value preseason snaps, and did a lot with his targets (18 for 11-116-2) he’s worth watching – especially given the void in the Chief’s receiving game after Dwayne Bowe. Sometimes “out of nowhere” guys truly come out of nowhere, but usually they have profiles that line up with those of good players except that they have blemishes or are unique in some way. And there’s a viable argument that he may be a good receiver – he has a lot of tools, but they’re a really unusual mix.
For what it’s worth, my gut feel here is that Hemingway won’t turn out to be most similar to either of the above sets of comparables but that he’s easily good enough to carve out a role, and possibly a large role, with the Chiefs. It’s also an informed hunch that Hemingway may turn out to be most like a bigger version of Marty Booker (who was shorter, but similarly thick and had an excellent NCAA receiving score), but that he’ll be more effective in the red zone.
Again, it’s more likely that Hemingway won’t turn into something more than a role player than it is that he will. That’s how the game works when you’re looking at dark horses like Hemingway, Marlon Brown or C.J. Anderson. But keep an eye on him. He may "come out of nowhere."
ETA: fixed his receiving score.
I remember being sort of intrigued by this guy last year when he came out and went back to see what I thought before the 2012 draft:
Now that Hemingway is getting a serious look as a role player in KC (he ran with the #1s in the Week 3 preseason game and scored a TD, then put up a line of 7/80/1 in Week 4, then made the team), I wanted to go back and update that in more detail.
The summary up there holds up pretty well despite some changes to the WR model -- Hemingway is a unique prospect. There's no one like him in the WR database -- and his projection ultimately ends up being semi-informed guesswork. Here are a few possible takes on him.
First, his relevant measurables:
NCAA Performance: +1.3 (above average -- on small sample)
Height: 72-7/8"
BMI/Size: 29.8 (Very Big)
Speed: 4.48 forty/1.54 10-split (average speed for size)
Explosion: 35.5" vert, 124 broad (average explosion)
Outside of his receiving measure, which is very good (possibly due to a limited role on a team that didn't throw much), that's not the profile of a WR -- receivers don't have BMIs in the high 29s. He's built like a tall RB -- specifically someone like Deshaun Foster or Le'Veon Bell.
However, there are a handful of other WRs that share this physical profile
• Rishard Matthews
• Niles Paul
• Josh Morgan
• Chris Harper
--Matthews is a 2nd year receiver trying to stick with the Dolphins in a backup and returner role.
--Niles Paul was converted to an undersized TE position.
--Josh Morgan is a blocking receiver who's never done a lot in terms of receiving.
--Chris Harper is a rookie.
Unfortunately these receivers are close to useless in projecting Hemingway because two of them are new to the NFL and none of them came out of college with an even average receiving metric. Hemingway should be better than they are.
Additionally, Hemingway's short-area quickness looks more like Dante Hall's than it does a guy carrying 225. His combined cone score is freakish for someone that size. Unfortunately I'm not sure how much a low score matters for tall players, or how much it matters for WRs. It's possible that kind of agility is only functionally useful for short WRs and/or RBs.
So while I'm confident saying that Hemingway should be better than the players above, I'm not at all confident what that might mean.
Adding to the uncertainty… if instead of looking only at the bad receivers who are a good match with his unique size we compare Hemingway to players who were similarly good as receivers, but whose size is only close instead of an exact match, we get:
• David Boston
• Hakeem Nicks
Both of these players came into the NFL with about average height, high BMIs (but not oversized), decent speed, average explosion and strong receiving scores.
The major differences are that both Nicks and Boston were far more accomplished collegiate wideouts than Hemingway (who caught only 66 balls his last two seasons) and both entered the league at twenty-one years old (to Hemingway’s twenty-three). The fact that Hemingway led the team in receptions and that Michigan only completed 155 passes his senior year mitigates the low catch total somewhat, but there’s no way to get around those dings – both of them typically act as downgrade a player’s prospects in the pros.
However, the David Boston comp is particularly intriguing. Since there are no WRs with both Hemingway’s size entering the league (the top group) and Hemingway’s on-field success in college (the bottom group – who are smaller than he is), the post-steroid David Boston may represent a best-case bridge between the two since he played at a BMI over 29.
The gap between “better than Josh Morgan” and “a roided up David Boston” is obviously enormous, and there’s no real way to tell where on that spectrum Hemingway may fall. There just aren’t enough good comparables in this case.
But both cases get him on the field, and given that Hemingway made the team after missing his rookie season with an injury, got some fairly high-value preseason snaps, and did a lot with his targets (18 for 11-116-2) he’s worth watching – especially given the void in the Chief’s receiving game after Dwayne Bowe. Sometimes “out of nowhere” guys truly come out of nowhere, but usually they have profiles that line up with those of good players except that they have blemishes or are unique in some way. And there’s a viable argument that he may be a good receiver – he has a lot of tools, but they’re a really unusual mix.
For what it’s worth, my gut feel here is that Hemingway won’t turn out to be most similar to either of the above sets of comparables but that he’s easily good enough to carve out a role, and possibly a large role, with the Chiefs. It’s also an informed hunch that Hemingway may turn out to be most like a bigger version of Marty Booker (who was shorter, but similarly thick and had an excellent NCAA receiving score), but that he’ll be more effective in the red zone.
Again, it’s more likely that Hemingway won’t turn into something more than a role player than it is that he will. That’s how the game works when you’re looking at dark horses like Hemingway, Marlon Brown or C.J. Anderson. But keep an eye on him. He may "come out of nowhere."
ETA: fixed his receiving score.
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