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Kansas City (-3.5) vs. Baltimore O/U 53.5 (1 Viewer)

What game were you watching? CEH is awful. It actually wouldn’t surprise me to wake up tomorrow and hear he was released. He has more room to run than any RB in the league and does nothing with it. You can bet at the very least Darrel Williams has earned himself a 50/50 timeshare. 
I said it was a mixed bag. 

I am not a CEH believer - it’s why I moved on from him in dynasty. But he looked better than Rock’s making him out to be.

Except for the fumble. That was flaming dog poo on the porch bad. 

 
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I think he's ok, he's just not needed for what the Chiefs do. They don't workhorse backs and they don't really target RBs out of the backfield, which is his strength: you get Edwards-Helaire in space and he makes people miss.

KC shouldn't have drafted him if they're not going to use his strengths. He'd be awesome in Atlanta, or even New England (super James White).
I think this is the right take.  He was simply a bad pick by the chiefs.  They're not a team that's going to pound the rock so he can get gritty and he's not the kind of back that can burst to the edge on a sweep which is a play they like to run.  They also don't give him the ball in space to make the first man miss.

In a vacuum he doesn't suck.   He's no Cook or CMC, but he's certainly much better than anything ATL is trotting out.  He's just being poorly used after being drafted too high.

 
Colts <> Chiefs who already put up 30+

Balt running <> NE running

You aren't comparing apples to apples


Colts in that game I believe had around 35pts and had scored TDs on 3 straight drives. 

Pats' offense was sadly only lead by the greatest qb ever though. 

It was trust your bottom 5 defense to stop one of the top 5 qbs of all time that had just scored 3 straight tds, or trust the greatest qb of all time to get a yard. 

I still remember the laughable arguments of the time. "You can't send a message to your D that you don't trust them to make the stop. Think of how that will affect them mentally". 

:lmao:

 
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Colts in that game I believe had around 35pts and had scored TDs on 3 straight drives. 

Pats' offense was sadly only lead by the greatest qb ever though. 

It was trust your bottom 5 defense to stop one of the top 5 qbs of all time that had just scored 3 straight tds, or trust the greatest qb of all time to get a yard. 

I still remember the laughable arguments of the time. "You can't send a message to your D that you don't trust them to make the stop. Think of how that will affect them mentally". 

:lmao:
Reminded me of the alley oop scene in "Semi Pro". It just broke people's brains.

BTW, not only was the process correct, the Pats actually had a good play call. The ball hit Faulk in the hands when he was past the first-down marker, but he juggled it for a second before gaining control. If he had caught it cleanly, forward progress would have given him the first.

 
Reminded me of the alley oop scene in "Semi Pro". It just broke people's brains.

BTW, not only was the process correct, the Pats actually had a good play call. The ball hit Faulk in the hands when he was past the first-down marker, but he juggled it for a second before gaining control. If he had caught it cleanly, forward progress would have given him the first.
Execution is like 9/10ths of football.

Going for it last night was correct.

Going for it up that much on your own 30 was not the correct process, the correct EV/WP play, the correct call.

It was arrogance, and they lost.

 
Execution is like 9/10ths of football.

Going for it last night was correct.

Going for it up that much on your own 30 was not the correct process, the correct EV/WP play, the correct call.

It was arrogance, and they lost.
I'm not going to bother to look up the numbers, but I remember at the time lots of stat-heads talking about how that play was very clearly the right call from a WP perspective. It was only incorrect from the perspective of "This feels wrong and football teams never do it".

 
I'm not going to bother to look up the numbers, but I remember at the time lots of stat-heads talking about how that play was very clearly the right call from a WP perspective. It was only incorrect from the perspective of "This feels wrong and football teams never do it".
Yeah, sometimes WP has you out of the playoffs 99% certainty and you make it.

WP is fallible at times. That Patriots play was dumb because it went against the clock, really. I get why Belichick did it, and I got the stats behind it, but that one was wrong at the time because one shouldn't always be beholden to the law of large numbers in particularized situations.

Wasn't a football mind in the house last night that wanted to give the ball back to Mahomes.

 
But I get what you're saying about WP/EV and that play. I'm just not sure that the actual WP/EV rather than human modelling was correct.

We need premises for the inputs, and sometimes those premises are wrong in particular situations.

 
I think this is the right take.  He was simply a bad pick by the chiefs.  They're not a team that's going to pound the rock so he can get gritty and he's not the kind of back that can burst to the edge on a sweep which is a play they like to run.  They also don't give him the ball in space to make the first man miss.

In a vacuum he doesn't suck.   He's no Cook or CMC, but he's certainly much better than anything ATL is trotting out.  He's just being poorly used after being drafted too high.
This is a pretty good take, though I think you're way too optimistic about his talent. I don't think he's a gritty runner. People didn't see him as a real tackle-breaker coming out of college. Reasonable people can disagree on that part of it, though.

 
This is a pretty good take, though I think you're way too optimistic about his talent. I don't think he's a gritty runner. People didn't see him as a real tackle-breaker coming out of college. Reasonable people can disagree on that part of it, though.
I didn't think he was a gritty runner coming out either. But that's what I've seen so far this year.  And with his (lack of) size that's what he needs to be - the kind of guy who gets low and pushes.

 
I didn't think he was a gritty runner coming out either. But that's what I've seen so far this year.  And with his (lack of) size that's what he needs to be - the kind of guy who gets low and pushes.
Interestingly, I remember people saying the same thing about Singletary when he was a rookie. At this point, their career trajectories are looking relatively similar (except that Singletary has more competition for touches). If Moss got cut tomorrow wouldn't we regard them as basically the same low-end RB2/flex?

 
But I get what you're saying about WP/EV and that play. I'm just not sure that the actual WP/EV rather than human modelling was correct.

We need premises for the inputs, and sometimes those premises are wrong in particular situations.
If the numbers in a vacuum favored going for it, the fact that the game featured two of the greatest QBs in NFL history in their prime would only strengthen the case (Brady = higher percentage of converting than an average NFL offense; Peyton = higher risk of giving him the ball back).

I still maintain the thing that made it so controversial was the field position. If it had been closer to midfield it wouldn't have felt so wrong to everyone. But going for it in their own territory was something that teams simply didn't do. If the exact same thing happened today, I suspect it would still be controversial (though less so than it was in 2009).

 
If Kareem Hunt hadn’t done what he he did, it’s scary to think how good KC would be/would have been
Hell, if Hunt had done what he did and not lied to the Chiefs about it, they still might have let him stay on the roster while he served his suspension. You can say that the Chiefs acted cynically to avoid the PR hit, and I certainly wouldn't argue with that, but the fact is that the lying was the reason they cited for cutting him, and without that they may have tried to weather the storm.

 

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