Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
We won't see close to 6000. In 1969 Hurricane Camille (a Cat 5) came on shore at about the same location and resulted in 255 deaths.
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Katrina (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tipsy mcstagger
- Start date
RoarinSonoran
Footballguy
Pressure has dropped to 904mb.ETA: er, raised...umm, changed from 903, which had changed from 902. 
Less low than it was! Something like that...
Less low than it was! Something like that...
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Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
The storm is not looking as good as it did earlier. I think we will see some slight weakening before landfall. Its still going to be really, really bad.Pressure has dropped to 904mb.
ETA: er, raised...umm, changed from 903, which had changed from 902.
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
Is this supposed to be funny?
Last week, my wife and I bought a house in Mandeville, LA (30 miles north of New Orleans. She was getting transfered, but now our home, jobs and lives are literally gone with the wind. we were so much looking forward to moving home. I am so afraid our families and the whoel area are going to lose everything.Nothing against your house, job, and/or city but watching weather guys try to get the scoop is like watching a scary movie and yelling at the screen for the girl not to turn around.Yeah...enjoy watching my house/job/city get destroyed. hope you have a good day too.
It's going to be months before they will even be able to start the clean up.
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
Understood. Its pretty serious. I've been through a couple of hurricanes, but they never approached this level before. Pretty scary stuff.Here's some info on Hurricane Camille, the last Cat 5 to hit the US in this area: Hurricane Camille
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RoarinSonoran
Footballguy
Tornado warning/watch(?) for the Mobile area. And so it begins......
cosjobs
Footballguy
New Orleans Levee SystemEvolving DangerDespite rising hurricane risks, the Army Corps of Engineers hasn't revised its levee designs for the New Orleans area, and some areas may be more vulnerable to floods than the Corps maintains.By John McQuaid and Mark SchleifsteinStaff writersThe New Orleans area's last line of defense against hurricane flooding is a 475-mile-long system of levees, locks, sea walls and floodgates averaging about 16 feet high. The Army Corps of Engineers says the system will protect the city and suburbs from a Category 3 hurricane that pushes in enough seawater to raise Lake Pontchartrain 11.5 feet above sea level -- high over the head of anyone standing on the other side of a levee.That margin of error is critical because a storm that pushes the lake any higher can force water over the top of the levees and inundate the city. The water could quickly rise 20 feet or higher. People would drown, possibly in great numbers.The corps doesn't know what that safety margin is anymore.Generally speaking, the corps says the powerful, slow-moving storms capable of overwhelming the system are rare and the levees are safe. But corps engineers say their own safety estimates are out of date, and an independent analysis done for The Times-Picayune suggests some levees may provide less protection than the corps maintains.The corps' original levee specifications are based on calculations made in the early 1960s using the low-tech tools of the day -- manual calculators, pencils and slide rules -- and may never have been exactly right, corps officials say. Even if they were, corps officials and outside scientists say levees may provide less protection today than they were designed for because subsidence and coastal erosion have altered the landscape on which they were built.Experts dispute corps' estimatesAccording to the rough statistical analysis done by engineering consultant Lee Butler, the risk of levee overtopping in some areas -- St. Bernard Parish, eastern New Orleans and the Lower 9th Ward -- may actually be close to double what the corps once thought it was. The corps disputes Butler's numbers but has no current alternative figures.The agency is undertaking a new study to reassess the level of protection and another to determine whether the levees need to be raised still higher.Measuring the risks of disaster is a technical feat that few understand. But such exercises are critical to the future of New Orleans. If the new corps study confirms that protection is less than previously thought, the answers could have major effects on issues such as flood insurance rates, future levee expansions, emergency planning, evacuation and long-term business decisions.Thanks to its low, flat profile and its location on the Gulf of Mexico, south Louisiana is more at risk from a major natural disaster than most other places in the country. The risk of a catastrophic levee-topping flood in New Orleans is roughly comparable to the risk of a major earthquake in Los Angeles. Because of coastal erosion and subsidence, that risk is growing.But judging that risk and how to protect against it can be difficult. Recent experience tends to confirm the idea that catastrophic hurricane floods are rare. Even if a powerful hurricane comes close to New Orleans, only certain storm tracks could flood all or part of the city and suburbs. Twelve storms rated Category 3 and above have hit the Louisiana coast in the past 100 years, but only four produced major flooding in the New Orleans area. The levee system was built largely in response to those storms, to prevent or reduce flooding in similar events
tipsy mcstagger
Footballguy
:keepsfingerscrossed:fyi...this could double that easily if we get the worst of the storm.
RoarinSonoran
Footballguy
Weatherchannel's "local on the 8s" here in Phoenix:"The National Weather Service has issued an exessive heat warning, and an exessive heat warning, and an exessive heat warning."Reading the text on the screen, it's for today, tomorrow and Tuesday, but the overdub just sounds funny. lol
tipsy mcstagger
Footballguy
maybe because some of us have a lot riding on this storm. i'm trying to keep it light sometimes too.
Kilgore Trout
Footballguy
I shouldn't have said anything, and I know Rolyaty's heart is in the right place. But people are going to die, they are going to lose their homes, their businesses, etc.
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tipsy mcstagger
Footballguy
don't call me francis.
Sid
Footballguy
Take whatever you paid for the house. Now, triple that number. That's what you'll be able to sell it for in a couple of days, if it's still standing. In Pensacola, after Ivan, people were offering $100K ABOVE the listed price on houses just to be taken seriously.. supply and demand..Last week, my wife and I bought a house in Mandeville, LA (30 miles north of New Orleans. She was getting transfered, but now our home, jobs and lives are literally gone with the wind. we were so much looking forward to moving home. I am so afraid our families and the whoel area are going to lose everything.Nothing against your house, job, and/or city but watching weather guys try to get the scoop is like watching a scary movie and yelling at the screen for the girl not to turn around.Yeah...enjoy watching my house/job/city get destroyed. hope you have a good day too.
It's going to be months before they will even be able to start the clean up.
Good luck.. It's 2am here in germany, and I can't sleep with family in N.O., even though i know they are gone already...
RoarinSonoran
Footballguy
Weatherchannel dude is reporting from Mandeville now. Said the causeway is still looking good, useable.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Good luck to all the FBG's and Gals in Katrina's path
RoarinSonoran
Footballguy
Just on weatherchannel: frontal system over Texas is starting to turn Katrina northward.
RoarinSonoran
Footballguy
WC: think of Katrina as a great big F-3 tornado.
Blue_Devil_31
Footballguy
he's seemed better the last couple of reports, but a few hours ago he seemed scared ####less and about to come unglued (and rightfully so!) GLLLLLLLLLLLLL to all those in katrina's path!
JaxBill
Footballguy
FWIW, here's an amateur's site that takes the projected NHC path and creates detailed maps.
It doesn't look good.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=12
It doesn't look good.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=12
Kasparov
Footballguy
Webcam from the Causeway Bridge It doesn't update very often but in the last half hour it just got REALLY dark there.
Wild Young Billy
A Crazy Cat
Earlier today Shepard Smith interviewed some people in a Daiquir bar on Bourbon Street and asked them why they were still there. The guy answered "None of your ####### business!" GB live TV, especially from a bar, esepcially one in NO.
Goodbye for a long time, ****.J
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RoarinSonoran
Footballguy
FOX reporter to woman outside dome: Do you expect to have a home after all this?
Dude, do you expect to have a BRAIN? Ever? 
:reported:
Dude, do you expect to have a BRAIN? Ever? :reported:
TommyKramer
Footballguy
Question: Isn't the guy on Fox News (can't remember his name) the former host of CNN Morning? Interesting.
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
How many people are they/have they allowed into the Superdome?
At some point around the last time that report aired, the Jefferson Parish Civil Defense coordinator estimated that 1,000,000 of 1,200,000 people in the area have evacuated. I hope those numbers are pretty accurate.
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I'm hearing they've let 20k in and another 20k are outside.There is no way they can let everyone in at once. They HAVE to check for weapons, alcohol, drugs, etc. They need to plan for the worst case scenario, which is no food for awhile. They don't want people consuming alcohol or to go crazy with weapons once they stop eating.
They are doing the right thing here.
Depending on how far out you go, there is an estimated 1.2 - 1.5 people in the greater new orleans area. The numbers above sounds about right. But still that leaves a lot still there.I know Mrs. TF's grandfather decided to stay.
He's really stubborn, so it's not surprising, but I don't think he knows what he's in for.
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
I agree...I am just praying that it withstands this...
Should that collapse, :X ...
I don't even want to think about it...
And, with that, the potential greatness of his season has been dramatically increased. 
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
The ones who are staying to weather the storm, I wonder if they understand the dynamics of the situation...That their greatest threat probably isn't the storm itself (although obviously the wind and rain from a Cat5 is pretty damn dangerous in of itself) but the possibnilty of the severity of the storm creating storm surges that breech the levee system and flood New Orleans...
SofaKings.
Footballguy
Are you blaming that on W?