Again, I would agree if everyone was using the exact same list and evaluated players the exact same way. I would also agree that a 1st round pick is more likely to succeed than a 4th round pick. However, I would like to see data on tiers to see if that holds true. For example, I have a tier of 8 players that I think all have a similar chance to succeed. Is it a statistical probability that the guy I list first in the tier will outscore the guy I list 8th? By definition I have them equally evaluated to score the same so by definition I could get any of those 8 guys and have the same probability of them being the highest scoring of that group (in my eyes). So for that section of the draft (say pick 12 to 20) it should be a wash going into the draft as to which pick in that group has a higher probability of succeeding (to me). And those evaluations are what throw a wrench into the strict "better pick gives better chance to succeed" statements.Yes but it happens more than it doesn't. That's like the argument of NFL players taking a QB in later rounds because earlier rounds don't mean success. You hit more on players in fantasy and in real life drafts, who are taken earlier. Of course there's no guarantee, that's why we all play this game. But it's a numbers and statistical game and it's proven that earlier picks hit at a higher rate than later picks.
The commish has draft boards for all the drafts of my initial league (started in 1985) and we have done some looking back comparing player finish to where they were drafted to see if there is any advantage/disadvantage to draft position and in the half dozen or so drafts we have done that for there is no rhyme or reason or indication which draft slot turns out better. In essence you need to draft well from whatever slot you are in. The slot doesn't matter. Because of the variation of evaluating players, unforeseen things (injuries), and the short (relatively speaking) season draft spot doesn't matter for overall success. Luck is a much bigger factor.