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Kelvin Benjamin - WR - FSU [UPDATE PAGE 1, 7/3] (2 Viewers)

Bob Magaw said:
Evans

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Evans_(wide_receiver)

Benjamin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelvin_Benjamin

Evans is faster and jumps higher. But based on size, what other WRs could you possibly compare Benjamin to..
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Playerprofile.com is at such a loss for a player comp that his closest comparison according to them is Gargamel. The only other player I believe the treat this way is D. Henry, whose closest player comparison is Zangief from Street Fighter.

 
tangfoot said:
In general, it's a good idea to bet against a repeat of a career year.

See also: Riddick, Theo
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His rookie season is his ONLY year, kind of a bizarre and counter-intuitive characterization to call it a career year, when that is all we have to go on.

Rookie 1,000 yard WRs since the merger (doesn't include Cooper from '15 - so total of 16)

https://www.fantasyindex.com/2015/08/15/factoid/rookie-wide-receivers-1000-yards

Shorten the above list to Galloway in the past two decades. The majority of them have gone on to follow up that initial success by becoming good/very good/great receivers, the opposite clearly the exception (Michael Clayton the most obvious one hit wonder).

Historically, it's hard to get 1,000 yards for a rookie WR. With a few exceptions, chances are it isn't a fluke, and we are looking at a legit talent capable of replicating some approximation of his rookie season, in fact wouldn't be a shock to me if he surpasses it several times before his career is over.  

 
tangfoot said:
It's also clear to me that you are extrapolating too much from a sample size of one game.
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You keep saying this, while earlier acknowledging his rookie season, so it is contradictory to suggest others are extrapolating from one game.

Odd take when those seeing a favorable projection are extrapolating based on literally ALL his games and extant stats.

The fact that you like 25 WRs better is fair (FBG consensus), but that also speaks to the fact that "only" about 20 points separated #15 Calvin Johnson from #25 Sammy Watkins in 2015. So Benjamin would need to exceed projections by approx. 1.25 PPG to get into that neighborhood.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Ha ha!  Sure thing, buddy. I'm using his whole career not just one game. Everything about hos short career so far goes against what you predict for him. But yeah, I'm the one making giant leaps based on nothing.  Lol. 
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Hey, if you think he's going to get 150 targets, then he'll probably also get 75 catches again.

Personally, I believe they have too many other options for that to happen again, or in the foreseeable future.

 
Bob Magaw said:
You keep saying this, while earlier acknowledging his rookie season, so it is contradictory to suggest others are extrapolating from one game.

Odd take when those seeing a favorable projection are extrapolating based on literally ALL his games and extant stats.

The fact that you like 25 WRs better is fair (FBG consensus), but that also speaks to the fact that "only" about 20 points separated #15 Calvin Johnson from #25 Sammy Watkins in 2015. So Benjamin would need to exceed projections by approx. 1.25 PPG to get into that neighborhood.
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I've been consistent in saying that I believe the conditions which caused him to explode during his rookie season are not repeatable.  You may disagree with me, but this is a different team with far more talent all around.

And I'm also NOT expecting him to exceed his projections, which should be abundantly obvious by now.

 
LJax said:
I believe with going with my gut, and have had good success doing that. (Not just in FF). Every time I watched Benjamin, he impressed me, and when he was not kept in our keeper league last year after his knee injury, I picked him up in the 7th round (high) and sat on him all year. I feel he'll be top 10 for a lot of years.  I had all intentions of keeping him as one of my 5 this year, even when the over-whelming negative hype hit, I just felt he and the situation was special.  I don't see the "it" in Funchess. It did mean that I would have to let Latavious Murray go (a ho hum feeling), but his ranking continued to rise.

On the day of our draft, I looked at the FBG experts opinion one more time and across the board Benjamin had fallen into the 100's+ (they just didn't like him) and Murray had moved around #25.  I couldn't see where one FBG expert was seeing what I saw in Benjamin, they have got to know better, right? So, right when I was to turn in my keepers, I made the switch to let Benjamin go.

Needless to say, I did not sleep very well last night.
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Things like this are why I don't subscribe to anything any more, and read fewer expert opinions than I used to. I'd rather be wrong myself than follow somebody else who was wrong.

 
The prospective usage of Funchess the biggest potential wild card to impact Benjamin (similar in size to KB - 6'4", 225 lbs.).

Olsen will get his. Ginn had a career year, but they don't have comparable skill sets or overlapping games, so his stats don't need to cut into Benjamin's that much, if at all.

 
tangfoot said:
In general, it's a good idea to bet against a repeat of a career year.

See also: Riddick, Theo
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lol

Does that apply to a ROOKIE season "career year"? At WR no less? 

BTW: That season is also the worst he has ever had (not counting missing the whole season with injury of course). 

 
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Leonidas said:
Does that apply to a ROOKIE season "career year"? At WR no less? 
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I'm happy with the flag that I've planted, and own zero shares of Kelvin across 13 redraft and dynasty leagues.  His price is way to high for my expectations and what I think he is.

 
avoiding injuries said:
Calling somebody's ONLY year a career year is pretty terrible. Lol
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Bull####.  Especially if you think that he has no reasonable chance at repeating the conditions which caused it.

We see it with RBs all the time, what's the difference?  I think Latavius Murray had a career year last year, too.

 
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tangfoot said:
Hey, if you think he's going to get 150 targets, then he'll probably also get 75 catches again.

Personally, I believe they have too many other options for that to happen again, or in the foreseeable future.
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Only 138 targets to go! 9 per game and he'll hit that mark.

 
Classic case of expert group think / sheep following experts advice here. To all the sheep that down own him........ its ok to be wrong. The sooner you admit to your mistake/the reality of the situation the more you can recover from your mistake. 

 
tangfoot said:
I've been consistent in saying that I believe the conditions which caused him to explode during his rookie season are not repeatable.  You may disagree with me, but this is a different team with far more talent all around.

And I'm also NOT expecting him to exceed his projections, which should be abundantly obvious by now.
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Another way to look at that, literally hundreds (thousands?) of rookie WRs have enjoyed favorable circumstances. If getting 1,000 receiving yards was easy in that context, it would have happened a lot more often. If you look at the above list of rookie 1,000 yard WRs in the past two decades, the odds suggest a greater chance than not that KB is a legit talent.

YOU may be skeptical and see some immense chasm and abyss between team situation/context separating 2014 from 2016. But that that doesn't mean others aren't basing their evaluation and projection on his rookie season, too, which the odd one game remark seems to be suggesting (your disagreement with the rationale notwithstanding).

Could you expand and elaborate on the far more talented take? First of all, if Cam is more talented (career league MVP season spearheaded a franchise best 15-1 season?), could be more yards and TDs to go around. Maybe they will be in the red zone even more vs. KB's rookie season - who would be best positioned to leverage that uptick? Ginn? Doubtful. And to be consistent, if you are going to look askance at "career years" that should make you far more skeptical of Ginn, who has been good in 1/9 seasons, than KB's 1/1. As noted, Olsen will definitely get his, but has never been a prolific scorer. Despite the absence of KB, the rookie campaign of Funchess (31/473/5) wasn't nearly as productive. Subtracting DeAngelo Williams out hasn't made the run game improved. And if the defense is better, that would be a positive, getting the ball back to the offense earlier and more often.

The fact that you aren't expecting an uptick doesn't mean others are basing THEIR take on one game. And it is odd to characterize KB's rookie and ONLY season a career season (regardless of what you do or don't agree with), when so many previous rookie 1,000 yard WRs have gone on to distinguished careers? That makes your take the counterintuitive one.         

 
tangfoot said:
Bull####.  Especially if you think that he has no reasonable chance at repeating the conditions which caused it.

We see it with RBs all the time, what's the difference?  I think Latavius Murray had a career year last year, too.
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That is a flawed analogy because in Murray's case, the season in which he cracked 1,000 RUSHING yards (in his case) was not his ROOKIE season. Calling a rookie season a "career season" is precisely what makes your sense unconventional and counterintuitive. If you were saying this after Murray had 1,000+ rushing yards his ROOKIE season, that would be more odd than after his second season in this context.  

 
Bob Magaw said:
That is a flawed analogy because in Murray's case, the season in which he cracked 1,000 RUSHING yards (in his case) was not his ROOKIE season. Calling a rookie season a "career season" is precisely what makes your sense unconventional and counterintuitive. If you were saying this after Murray had 1,000+ rushing yards his ROOKIE season, that would be more odd than after his second season in this context.  
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Semantics, but I see your point. 

I'll make a hypothetical for you.  If Alex Collins rushes for 1,000 yards and 10 TDs, I'll also call that a "career year", because I simply don't think he's very good.

Not exactly the same situation as Benjamin, as I do think he's a low-WR2 or good WR3.  But I'm not expecting nor betting on him being a top-15 WR because he's not that talented.

 
tangfoot said:
Semantics, but I see your point. 

I'll make a hypothetical for you.  If Alex Collins rushes for 1,000 yards and 10 TDs, I'll also call that a "career year", because I simply don't think he's very good.

Not exactly the same situation as Benjamin, as I do think he's a low-WR2 or good WR3.  But I'm not expecting nor betting on him being a top-15 WR because he's not that talented.
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I don't think anyone will change your mind so arguing with you is pointless. I will just have to say.....you are wrong and leave it at that.

 
I remember the articles and commentary from FBG in pre-season his rookie year.

Along the lines of 

"Rookie season but most likely will get double digit touchdowns - may only play limited snaps but has a very high ceiling"

No idea what changed since then - if anything he delivered his rookie season. Yeah an injury but talk about an over reaction from everyone.

 
pantherclub said:
Thats a steal.  I would imagine if he has another good game showing his speed, ability to muscle the ball away from corners and make a couple more tough catches then he bolts to the start of the 3rd.

Edit- I see where in MML he is going 3.12 so thats about right KP.  I just think that is too low for him assuming the knee is 100% and it looks to be so.
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This is why folks on this board shouldnt listen to "Experts" but die hard homers.  There is no "expert" in the world that can be dialed into 32 teams as good as a rabid fan who digests each and every piece of info from said team and watches just about every play of said team.

 
tangfoot said:
Semantics, but I see your point. 

I'll make a hypothetical for you.  If Alex Collins rushes for 1,000 yards and 10 TDs, I'll also call that a "career year", because I simply don't think he's very good.

Not exactly the same situation as Benjamin, as I do think he's a low-WR2 or good WR3.  But I'm not expecting nor betting on him being a top-15 WR because he's not that talented.
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I suppose it would depend on how Collins looks. If he looks bad doing it, your point would make more sense (being skeptical the following season). If he looked good, not so much (assuming it would be a career season). Maybe you would revise your opinion?  

Not sure if it is semantics or not, or a case of acknowledging substantive differences and not blurring distinctions.

For instance, Benjamin was a first rounder and unassailably part of one of the greatest WR classes in league history. Collins a fifth rounder in a not particularly exceptional class (after Elliot). They aren't really comparable prospects.   

Rookie 1,000-yard rushers in the past two decades through 2014 (31 - add at least Jeremy Hill and Gurley since then).  

https://fantasyindex.com/2014/03/10/factoid/rookie-1000-yard-rushers  

Rookie WR counterparts were far more rare (see above - closer to a dozen in the past two decades). I just can't think of a single instance where a WR was coming off a 1,000 yard season and was commonly viewed as "not that talented". Even Michael Clayton would have been fine if he could have maintained his rookie level, don't know if he got hurt, fat, lazy, complacent, but he never again looked like the same guy. Benjamin looks like EXACTLY the same guy. WRs can succeed in different ways. He isn't as fast, skilled a route runner and polished a technician as Cooper, but than again, the play where KB just shrugged off the DB like an annoying pest and got some RAC was beast-like. That IS a kind of talent. 

But perhaps we are nitpicking. You see him as a low end WR2. The difference between that and a high end WR2, as noted, could be slightly more than 1 PPG. So you have no trouble projecting him for slightly more than 1 PPG less than he would need to be a WR1. To me, that is far from an insurmountable gap.

The main point of disagreement for me is stating that others were extrapolating from one game, when he is merely picking up where he left off. Also, that we should basically pretend his rookie season didn't happen just because they have added a few players (though also subtracting some, like DeAngelo, and Newton's favorite receiving weapon may be Greg Olsen, who was already there and accounted for in target distribution). The supporting cast and surrounding talent is different, but Funchess was nowhere close to as successful or productive as KB in HIS rookie season, so every reason to think KB is going to impact Funchess negatively more than vice verce. Same with Ginn, may not be a coincidence that he put up big numbers in KB's absence. If the overall offense is improved, and they reach the red zone more often (than in 2014), who is more likely to be the beneficiary, KB or Ginn?      

 
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12 catches 174 yards and 3 TDs in 7 quarters. I don't think up 21, he'll get much more today, but he's the #1. As a Panther fan, I like Funchess' potential, but KB is clearly the top dog and playing really well.

 
Any insight from someone that watched the game?  Only 1 target.  Was it a combo of MIN taking him out and Cam's injury?  Something else?

 
Alkahsu said:
Any insight from someone that watched the game?  Only 1 target.  Was it a combo of MIN taking him out and Cam's injury?  Something else?
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Xavier Rhodes got his legs under him after the first series and the Vikings made Cam look for other players, mostly Ginn, which is a recipe for success.

The target Benjamin did get was when Munnerlin went out with an injury and the Vikings replaced him with Marcus Sherels.

Mike Zimmer.

 
Panthers OC Mike Shula blamed himself for Kelvin Benjamin's catch-less Week 3 against the Vikings.
Benjamin was blanketed by Minnesota's elite defense, drawing just one target. He was not shadowed by Vikings top CB Xavier Rhodes. "Yeah, we’ve got to find a way to get him the ball more," said Shula. "That starts with me. But we’ve got to make sure we’re doing it in a way that we’re not just trying to force him the ball." The squeaky wheel may get greased this week in Atlanta.

 
 
Source: panthers.com 
Sep 26 - 5:38 PM
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Cam Newton Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen are going to take a blowtorch to this Atlanta defense.

I called for a bad week last week but I think KB bounces back hard. 125 and at least a couple red zone looks or he busts one from 30 to 40 yds out. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Cam Newton Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen are going to take a blowtorch to this Atlanta defense.

I called for a bad week last week but I think KB bounces back hard. 125 and at least a couple red zone looks or he busts one from 30 to 40 yds out. 
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Just traded for him so i hope you are right

 
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need2know said:
MN def bro.  Atl def... not so much.  Sit at your own risk.  He's a top 10 play most weeks
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I have other options, I will be watching though. Cam and the coaches are all saying some good things about getting Ben involved.

im still not sure we'll see.

Tex

 
No way I sit this guy against that ATL D.

Last week was bad...very bad.  Probably what cost me a win (though, Tevin Coleman pretty much sealed my fate)...and I get people have options...but its hard to imagine better options than a guy who was targeted that much the first 2 weeks...going against this coming D.  While Id love putting Larry Fitzgerald in my lineup this week, there is no way I sit Kelvin.

 
sho nuff said:
No way I sit this guy against that ATL D.

Last week was bad...very bad.  Probably what cost me a win (though, Tevin Coleman pretty much sealed my fate)...and I get people have options...but its hard to imagine better options than a guy who was targeted that much the first 2 weeks...going against this coming D.  While Id love putting Larry Fitzgerald in my lineup this week, there is no way I sit Kelvin.
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sho nuff said:
No way I sit this guy against that ATL D.

Last week was bad...very bad.  Probably what cost me a win (though, Tevin Coleman pretty much sealed my fate)...and I get people have options...but its hard to imagine better options than a guy who was targeted that much the first 2 weeks...going against this coming D.  While Id love putting Larry Fitzgerald in my lineup this week, there is no way I sit Kelvin.
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1. Beckham

2. Cooks

 
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