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Kevin Kolb Era Begins - Where Does He Rank in Dynasty/Redraft? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bob Magaw
- Start date
Routilla
Footballguy
Lots of blitzes coming his way, that's for sure.
bluesclues
Footballguy
I think Kolb will be top ten and maybe top 5 in 2 years.
I see this kid as an Aaron Rodgers situation and he played very well in his short time he got the chance.
I love this move for Philly.
I see this kid as an Aaron Rodgers situation and he played very well in his short time he got the chance.
I love this move for Philly.
boonesfarm4me
Footballguy
I cant wait til the season starts...
Tau837
Footballguy
He was blitzed 29 times in 96 attempts last year, and he fared very poorly on those plays:16/29 (55.2%) for 238 yards (8.21 ypa), 2 TDs, 3 interceptions, and a 65.7 QB ratingCompare that to his other attempts:46/67 (68.7%) for 503 yards (7.51 ypa), 2 TDs, 0 interceptions, and a 100.5 QB ratingAnd, looking back further, he had a pathetic 19.2 QB rating against the blitz in 2008, though in only 15 attempts. He threw 3 interceptions in those 15 attempts.It's definitely a small sample size of facing the blitz, but I think it's a pretty safe bet that opposing defenses will see that he has not performed well when blitzed and will blitz him a lot as a result until and unless he shows that he can play well against it.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
he definitely just became more coveted, and no question will see a spike in value.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
good post...incidentally, how did mcnabb fare last year against the blitz?i'm also curious how mcnabb fared in the approx same number of his first few starts?hard to compare, because kolb was a third year player, but with very little actual game experience...even if he plays all 2010 as a starter... he will essentially be a rookie at the end of this year, in terms of starts (in past two years, ryan, flacco, stafford and sanchez all began year as starters?).* agree he has to tone down INTs... but we could say that about almost all QBs with a few starts under their belt... the PHI OL did have injuries and seemed to struggle at times last year...looking at the numbers, adding about 25% to completions and passing yards, that would lead to about 20 completions and 300 yards a game... throwing out mcnabb's first three starts (got injured in week one? and DNP weeks 2 & 3), he averaged right about 20 completions a game in last thirteen starts.there may be times when he throws an incomplete, than a long pass to jackson or maclin... that would look like a "bad" completion % of 50%, but move the ball down the field.** i forgot how different his two starts were...in a 48-22 loss to saints he had 3 INTs... INTs could have killed the defense, or the suspect defense maybe got behind early (saints did that to a lot of teams, and eagles defense by most accounts had an off season), which would have made PHI one-dimensional and put pressure on kolb to throw in unfavorable circumstances...than they won 34-14 against KC (one of worst teams and defenses in league)...
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Tau837
Footballguy
McNabb was much better against the blitz last season:61/108 (56.5%) for 993 yards (9.19 ypa), 5 TDs, 2 interceptions, and a 95.2 QB ratingDon't know where to find stats for McNabb against the blitz in his early career. (Got the recent stats at ESPN, but they don't have splits against the blitz and other defensive formations prior to the 2008 season.)
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
good work, seems like similar completion %, mcnabb had incrementally higher YPA, better TD/INT ratio, and of course better QB rating.
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Great post. Numbers tell a wonderful story. I wonder what the league averages were against the blitz. Ideally, as a young quarterback sees more and more blitzing schemes, he learns and improves on those numbers. To be sure, he will be using a lot of hot reads...
moleculo
Footballguy
Any idea how many other QB's fared better against the blitz in their first two games?I'm just sayin - it's fair to assume Kolb will be blitzed alot, but we should also assume that with a full off-season's worth of reps @ QB1, he will be able to handle it better, and will improve as the season wears on.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
I like all the young QB's more than Kolb. Stafford, Bradford, Sanchez, Ryan and Flacco.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
kolb could do best, though, given his weapons (easily the best situation, imo).i'd probably go...staffordkolbryan (more proven than bradford, but maybe regressed as soph - didn't handle pressure as well, forced into some bad decisions) bradford (could have among highest upside in group)flacco (upgraded weapons)sanchez
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bluesclues
Footballguy
Throw the blitz stats out.
The kid is going to learn quickly just like Rodgers did in Green Bay.
Everyone threw him under the bus and he is now a top tier NFL QB,.
I think Kolb will do the same and has a potent group of WR's to stretch the field.
I can understand if people disagree, but I think this kid is top 5 potential in Dynasty format.
The kid is going to learn quickly just like Rodgers did in Green Bay.
Everyone threw him under the bus and he is now a top tier NFL QB,.
I think Kolb will do the same and has a potent group of WR's to stretch the field.
I can understand if people disagree, but I think this kid is top 5 potential in Dynasty format.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
JWB brought some helpful and appreciated rigor to my off the cuff observation/remark...it is another story to interpret what the breakdown means (if anything)...but it is always a good thing to check if numbers accord with our intuitions.
Tau837
Footballguy
IMO people are being far too cavalier in throwing around Rodgers comparisons. Rodgers had an amazing season in his first year starting. That kind of performance for a first year starter is exceedingly rare, and after his second season we can now see that he is a rare talent, and that helps to explain how he was able to perform so well right away.
By the way... as a first year starter, Rodgers had a 107.2 QB rating against the blitz, with 15 TDs and just 2 interceptions on 145 attempts.
I think Kolb may turn out to be quite good, but it is far from a foregone conclusion. If I owned him and could trade him for a price commensurate with a top 10 dynasty QB, I'd do it.
By the way... as a first year starter, Rodgers had a 107.2 QB rating against the blitz, with 15 TDs and just 2 interceptions on 145 attempts.
I think Kolb may turn out to be quite good, but it is far from a foregone conclusion. If I owned him and could trade him for a price commensurate with a top 10 dynasty QB, I'd do it.
Tigerbot Hesh
Footballguy
I expect Kolb to be most fantasy magazines' sleeper du jour, much like everyone hyped Anthony Gonzalez last year.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I think this is about right, about 10 to 12 for me, right on the cusp of potentially being a starter in your 12 team fantasy drafts.You have to take into account that the Eagles are a passing team first and have a couple of dangerous receivers to work with. Their running game stinks, at least compared to the quality of football team that they are. Most good teams can run the football pretty well, Philly struggles running the football.He'll definately see a lot of blitzes, just like any other young QB. He'll have to show defenses he can beat that and he'll also have to prove his toughness because he'll be taking some big shots along the way.I can already tell I probably won't have Kolb in 1 league because by the looks of where some people have him, there will always be at least 1 person in every league that has this guy a full round ahead of where I would take him.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The first interception came with Philly trailing by two scores in the third quarter. The second and third interceptions both came in the last minute of the game with things basically wrapped up already.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Just make sure you account for Vick vulture TDs near the goal line. McNabb did not like it when Philly did it to him last year...Kolb will not be nearly as vocal so I actually expect at least 6-8 TDs maybe more for Vick. Last year he just got out of prison and was happy to be anywhere. Look for him to be a lot more involved this year.
He's one bad tackle from being the starter.
He's one bad tackle from being the starter.
salmonstud
Footballguy
Kolb's style fits Reid's offense better than McNabb did & much better than Vick. Kolb should be a top 10 fantasy QB from day 1 with some decent upside.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
McNabb's style fits Reid's offense better than Kolb does & much better than Vick. McNabb should be a top10 fantasy QB from day 1 with some decent upside. See how easy that is? Now tell us some real facts so we can break it down and have something to debate with. McNabb has about 10 years, Kolb 2 games, this should be fun. Your suggesting that McNabb has been a bad fit since day 1. I might remind you that he has been to 5 NFC Championships and 1 Super Bowl, so let's not pretend like Mcnabb ran Philly into the ground.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't think it's any secret that Mcnabb was an odd fit in Reid's WC offense, which typically values a QB with consistent accuracy on short yardage passes like slants and outs, which just happens to be perhaps Mcnabb's biggest weakness.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Yeah, he couldn't hit his backs and TEs for #### could he?
karmarooster
Footballguy
Rodgers isn't the only example. This kind of thing happens all the time in some form or another...
Schaub
Romo
Cassell
Henne
Kolb's ceiling could be as high as some of them.
Schaub
Romo
Cassell
Henne
Kolb's ceiling could be as high as some of them.
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Scooby1974
Footballguy
So you're saying Kolb came in with zero pressure on him and choked? This kid might end up being good, but crowning him the "savior of philly" like some seem to want to do is WAY premature. Wonder who the fickle bird fans will blame next for their inability to get over the hump......I guess Andy Reid is still there.
renesauz
IBL Representative
The Rogers comparisons may be cavalier, but he's the only QB in the lst 6-7 years to come in the league with both a similar predigree and a similar career tract ( 3 years behind an good, entrenched starter). Only time will tell how Kolb stacks up, but the comparison is very appropriate at this point in time.
Cassius
Footballguy
I think most people here assume that other people interested in this thread have at least a rudimentary grasp of Reid's offensive style and McNabb's strengths and weaknesses. You can't expect everyone to explain everything from the ground up.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Wait, what? How do you choke if there's zero pressure? And in a week 2 regular season game no less?The guy I was responding to was merely asking if Kolb threw his INTs in real game situations or in desperation mode in a game that was already over and forced the team to be one dimensional. The answer, at least for the last two, was clearly the latter.
Routilla
Footballguy
I for one am not ready to compare him to Rodgers just yet. He had 2 high yardage games, one vs KC at home and one @NO where he threw the ball 51 times.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Now that it is his team, he has everything you could want from a fantasy perspective:Solid WR1 - DeSeanCapable WR2 - MaclinRespectable slot WR3 - AvantGood TE - CelekHC who loves to throw - ReidPlaycalls in favor - Eagles throw a ton and use screens to extend the running gameadd in a questionable ground game (no Westy, short yardage a problem) and you have 95% favorable. Only a Vick wildcat scenario is a drawback.I'd expect 3500 yards and 20+ TDs in 2010 pretty easily if healthy. Only question would be INTs.ETA - Age is hugely in his favor with all those weapons well under 28.
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Cassius
Footballguy
Top of my head I think I'd have the following ahead of Kolb (in no particular order) in a dynasty league:
Aaron Rodgers, QB GBP
Drew Brees, QB NOS
Peyton Manning, QB IND
Tony Romo, QB DAL
Phillip Rivers, QB SDD
Matt Schaub, QB HOU
Tom Brady, QB NEP
Jay Cutler, QB CHI
Matthew Stafford, QB DET
Matt Ryan, QB ATL
Carson Palmer, QB CIN
I'm not a big Roethlisberger/Eli fan in dynasty leagues.
Aaron Rodgers, QB GBP
Drew Brees, QB NOS
Peyton Manning, QB IND
Tony Romo, QB DAL
Phillip Rivers, QB SDD
Matt Schaub, QB HOU
Tom Brady, QB NEP
Jay Cutler, QB CHI
Matthew Stafford, QB DET
Matt Ryan, QB ATL
Carson Palmer, QB CIN
I'm not a big Roethlisberger/Eli fan in dynasty leagues.
D'OHtis
Footballguy
I can see all the others, but this one REALLY stands out. Palmer looked absolutely atrocious most of last year [particularly the end]. I don't even see the upside with him. Not to mention they've become a run-first squad. Good thing too because I don't think he's capable anymore of carrying an offense.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
palmer top 5 before successive knee/elbow injuries...especially the elbow seemed to take a lot of the oomph out of his fastball, and maybe weakened his downfield accuracy... plus his best WR for pretty much his entire career (ocho cinco) may not be what he was at the height of his powers...
i couldn't put palmer in the top 10 any more, unless i see something different from him, and more of a return to form... i'm not expecting it... bryant, if healthy, will be an upgrade at WR2... i thought coffman would help at TE, but they just don't use that position much in the passing game. they have become more of a run team, and diminishing, eroding skills from palmer could be why.
i also think kolb has more upside...
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bulger2holt
Footballguy
In a 12 team redraft, who goes first, McNabb or Kolb ?
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
kolb, because of more questions about WAS OL and WRs. but this could be very close...* what if WAS drafts okung or dez bryant (shanahan may see some marshall in bryant... though for good and bad reasons)?
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Tau837
Footballguy
I disagree. I don't care if their situations are similar. If there were 10 guys with a pedigree like Kolb who had limited past game experience in which they looked good, 3 years behind a good starter, and who were set to start this year, would you expect them all to pass for 4000 yards and 28 TDs as first year starters?I agree his situation is comparable to Rodgers. If that's what you're saying, fine. But I was addressing people who seem to be saying they are confident he will perform like Rodgers did as a first year starter. Maybe he will, but I don't think it is probable.
delusional
Footballguy
Phillys O line is not brick wall. They have no back up OTs, no starting C and their RG missed half of last season cause his knee wasn't back to 100%.Stop talking about Kolb if he is the next montana please. The guy, in the few games he played, has not looked good at all. Yay he threw for 300 yds back to back games...once against KC whose defense I could torch and NO whose defense early in the season wasnt that good and they were down most the game.As of right now all you have to go off of is whats around Kolb. Eagles finally have legit WRs and a TE. Reid hates running the ball so expect the 30-40 attempts per game from him. Kolb is walking into a gold mine basically with the talent around him.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Hi Bob,I need clarity from this cause I think I am reading it wrong. Are you suggesting that Cinci knows his skills are eroding but won't do anything about it in terms of trading for another QB or getting someone to groom in the draft? If his skills are shot then shouldn't Cinci be trying to get someone new in there?
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
my liking kolb reflects at least as much on uncertainty over mcnabb in new surroundings, than thinking kolb is the next joe montana. i think most people would take PHI OL, as of today (peters could be one of the best LTs in the game if healthy)... probably even if WAS gets okung?you make it sound like it is easy to throw consecutive 300 yard games in first two starts... surely it must have happened in the past where first time starter faces a few bad defenses in a row? yet it doesn't happen every other year (like if you could do it, for instance)... why do you think that is? just historically lucky/flukey?incidentally, what do you think PHI saw in him to make such a drastic move like this... it isn't like mcnabb's skills had deteriorated a lot... this was more a statement about going forward with kolb...
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
i was far higher on pre-injury palmer in fantasy terms, MOP...as an actual football player, he is not what he was (based on what i saw last year, maybe his elbow can get stronger?), but he is still a great leader, and with them being able to run better, he seemingly can pass well enough to get them to the playoffs... to the super bowl could be another story? bryant could help a lot...
i definitely see these as separate issues...
he may no longer belong in top 10 in fantasy sense...
but he can be a functional cog in the machine in actual football... probably no longer capable of carrying the team on his shoulders like he used to be able to...
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kremenull
Footballguy
Except for one thing, he's not as good as Aaron Rodgers. IMO, from short to deep ball range, Rodgers is the most accurate passer overall in the NFL. All-field accuracy. Kolb certainly does inherit a super situation though. Its strange how they push McNabb out the dooir after finally supplying him with more weapons after all these years of placing a heavy burden on his shoulders to "make magic" with below average cast around him sans Westy. For him to compile the numbers he has to-date under those conditions is prett astonishing.Be careful what u wish for Philly-fan.......
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Great analysis (although as you said in a limited sample size). Based on that I agree that teams will have to blitz him and see if he can answer. In Kolb's defense, he was obviously a young QB during those attempts and experience should help him improve in those situations. All it takes is a couple of quick screens to DeSean Jackson to combat the bltiz and teams will be more cautious.As to the topic at hand, I think Kolb currently has to be rated no higher that QB13-QB 15 (and that's being generous) until he proves otherwise. He certainly has upside given his skillset and the weapons at his disposal, but people willing to overpay based on the inevitable Aaron Rodgers comparisons need to show some restraint imo.
