Kick the friggin field goal (1 Viewer)

[Ghost Rider]

That FG cost me $$ since I bet on the Bears to cover -7.5....

Best reason I have the SOB should have kicked it! No BS.

I always get a kick out of the line of thinking that 3 points in the first quarter GUARANTEES that the rest of the game would have gone EXACTLY the way that it did from there on out, when that is clearly an impossibility.

Haha, me too. I swear, people do not think sometimes. It's like people who thought that Atlanta would have won had they kicked the FG at the end of the first half last week (which made no sense to think that).

 

[MAC_32]

Right call tonight, wrong call Monday.

Atlanta coaches are feeling the heat, coaches seem to make the worst calls and forget the basics of the game when the pressure is turned up. But Monday was just plain stupid, and thanks to Mike Smith I lost my game by less than a point. Especially going into halftime, take the points.

Taking the points for the sake of doing so is stupid. Do some of yall not get how math works?What sucks is that we finally have coaches starting to make more optimal decisions, but they don't always work out. That doesn't mean it was the wrong decision, it means it didn't work. If they kicked the FG and missed it, this stupid group of people would be saying they should have gone for it...

Process > Outcome

agreed about your conclusion, but if you're defending the Atlanta call I think you're nuts.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

According to this calculator, often quoted by Bill Barnwell over at Grantland, if you believe you are going to convert the first down more than 49% of the time, you go for it there.

By contrast, on Monday Night, because the Falcons were down 10 at the time, the break even is closer to 33% of the time.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php

I like this calculator, but how exactly do you interpret the results?

EP = expected points = what are the expected points in a given scenario (e.g. if you are 98% to make the field goal, then EP = 3 * .98 = 2.94 points and if you are 70% to get the first down and 50% to score a TD following the first down, 25% to score a FG after the first down and 25% to score no points, EP = .7*(.5*7+.25*3+.25*0)+.3*0 = 2.975

WP = win percentage

I have no idea how it's calculated, but it's basically likelihood to win the game

Thanks. That's what I thought on the EP, but the WP piece was confusing to me.

 

[Ghost Rider]

agreed about your conclusion, but if you're defending the Atlanta call I think you're nuts.

Atlanta going for it was not the problem; that particular play call when going for it was what was terrible.

 

[KellysHeroes]

agreed about your conclusion, but if you're defending the Atlanta call I think you're nuts.

Atlanta going for it was not the problem; that particular play call when going for it was what was terrible.

not taking the 3 pts before half-time killed the Falcons imo

 

[Borden]

As has been stated multiple times, the Falcons going for it was dumb. The Bears, however, I don't think it was a bad decision or a good decision.

The biggest problem to me is that the decision should be made on 3rd down. "Jay if we need 3 yards or less after this play (the 3rd down attempt) then we are going to go for it. Run hurry up after." The idea being that you catch the defense off guard. You should have already spotted a weakness that you plan to exploit. You should have a personnel mismatch that you want to keep on the field.

Also, by going for it on fourth down early in the game you setup a later situation. Now, if the defense thinks that you are willing to go for it on 4th down, you can run your hurry up again. This time though, if for some reason you don't get the defensive look you thought you were going to get or Cutler doesn't like something he audibles to a hard count looking for a defensive player to jump offside. If no one jumps, call a time out and kick the FG.

Atlanta's play call was the worst part about them going for it. The Bears at least made sense.

 

[Ghost Rider]

agreed about your conclusion, but if you're defending the Atlanta call I think you're nuts.

Atlanta going for it was not the problem; that particular play call when going for it was what was terrible.

not taking the 3 pts before half-time killed the Falcons imo

How so? Let's assume they take the 3 and the rest of the game plays out the same way until the Falcons 4th down play with around 2 minutes left. Since the score would have then been 27-24 instead of 27-21, the Falcons certainly kick the FG to tie the game, instead of going for it on 4th (where the penalty happened that led to the fresh set of downs that led to the go-ahead at the time score). So, anyone who says, "The Falcons would have won had they taken the 3 at the end of the half, because they only lost by 2," is not using their brain. And this is not even taking into account that the game doesn't necessarily play out the same way had they taken the 3 (unless you never saw Back to the Future and do not know the deal with past events changing everything that happens after that ).

 

[VA703]

If they would have kicked the bears would have covered. It's a conspiracy

 

[MAC_32]

agreed about your conclusion, but if you're defending the Atlanta call I think you're nuts.

Atlanta going for it was not the problem; that particular play call when going for it was what was terrible.

their red zone offense is putrid and their line was being completely dominated. No play call would have been good.

 

[KellysHeroes]

agreed about your conclusion, but if you're defending the Atlanta call I think you're nuts.

Atlanta going for it was not the problem; that particular play call when going for it was what was terrible.

not taking the 3 pts before half-time killed the Falcons imo

How so? Let's assume they take the 3 and the rest of the game plays out the same way until the Falcons 4th down play with around 2 minutes left. Since the score would have then been 27-24 instead of 27-21, the Falcons certainly kick the FG to tie the game, instead of going for it on 4th (where the penalty happened that led to the fresh set of downs that led to the go-ahead at the time score). So, anyone who says, "The Falcons would have won had they taken the 3 at the end of the half, because they only lost by 2," is not using their brain. And this is not even taking into account that the game doesn't necessarily play out the same way had they taken the 3 (unless you never saw Back to the Future and do not know the deal with past events changing everything that happens after that ).

so u don't take the points? Take the 3 pts at the end of the half, then goto where they got stopped and kicked the FG with 4 mins left, give the ball back to the Jets who you hope to stop for atleast their own FG, then give Matt Ryan the ball with a 1:00 or so left. Would you rather end the game in Matt Ryan's hands or praying that Defense stops somebody. I rather leave it up to Ryan.

 

[msudaisy26]

Right call tonight, wrong call Monday.

Atlanta coaches are feeling the heat, coaches seem to make the worst calls and forget the basics of the game when the pressure is turned up. But Monday was just plain stupid, and thanks to Mike Smith I lost my game by less than a point. Especially going into halftime, take the points.

Taking the points for the sake of doing so is stupid. Do some of yall not get how math works?

What sucks is that we finally have coaches starting to make more optimal decisions, but they don't always work out. That doesn't mean it was the wrong decision, it means it didn't work. If they kicked the FG and missed it, this stupid group of people would be saying they should have gone for it...

Process > Outcome

Love the post. The reality is that we now live in a society that loves to second guess, especially after the fact and wants instant gratification. Sometimes you have to take a step back to go 2 steps forward.

The OP is wrong on this topic but does have a valid complaint overall, a lot of coaches, general managers, and owners make obvious mistakes going for the instant rewards, just not this time.

 

[Truman]

Broncos convert 4th and 2 at the 20 yard line to the horror of Troy Aikman. Moreno scores TD. Now 21-14 instead of 21-10.

 

[MNTom]

Broncos convert 4th and 2 at the 20 yard line to the horror of Troy Aikman. Moreno Ball scores TD. Now 21-14 instead of 21-10.

 

[grateful zed]

bank on the future.

 

[Truman]

Have also seen the Falcons kick two early field goals on short 4th downs which is part of the reason they're in a hole now. The other reason is they have wasted 13 plays on Steven Jackson.

 

[Truman]

Broncos again - this time it's Peyton on 4th and 1 to Joel Dreesen for the TD

 

[Mario Kart]

Too bad the Giants did not go for it on 4th down today, huh?

 

[hoopvillian]

Philly the last two weeks. WTH are they thinking.

 

[Truman]

Too bad the Giants did not go for it on 4th down today, huh?

Most of the Giants field goals were on 4th and long, though there were a couple of poor decisions, most notably in the 4th quarter when they were up by 9 on 4th and 2.

 

[Riversco]

Given rushing attempts on 2 point attempts are successful over 60% of the time, should teams always go for 2?

 

[Riversco]

Here is what people are missing.

Head coaches do not get fired for kicking that field goal. But if they go for it on 4th and short, and fail, that could start the rumblings that the coaching staff needs to go. Its the same reason why teams refuse to always go for 2. The top priority of a head coach is NOT to win games. Its to avoid getting fired. Doing things out of the ordinary, thinking outside the box, carries the elevated risk of getting fired.