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Knowing when to say when (1 Viewer)

Breesisdaman

Footballguy
Typically how long will you wait for production from a drafted player?

I am sure this question is not a one answer fits all and certainly the round that you took a player in, and the type of league (Keeper, redraft etc) comes into play. Lets just say this is not a keeper league and not a top 4 draft pick. The player has a history of putting up numbers but isn't clicking on his new team, or with his new coach or new QB or any number of scenarios. How long will you be patient on a drafted player before dealing him or worse, outright cutting him?

I look forward to the varied responses :cool:

 

McGarnicle

Footballguy
Ideally 3-4 weeks if I don't need to start him and there isn't an obvious stud on the WW to replace him. By then usually you've got an adequate sample of what the guy is going to do, and bad matchups/variance aren't skewing the numbers.

 

Khy

Footballguy
Honestly, this varies way to much season to season. Sometimes there are situations where I drafted a guy and I'm able to tell after Week 1 that there's enough cause for concern to just let him go if someone is on the WW I feel will blow up. I've had situations in the past where I've dropped someone I was really high on going into the season and instead dropped them after Week 1 for a hot WW pickup and it panned out. I've also let WW pickups just go to everyone else while I sat on guys who kept putting up dud after dud.

For example this season, if you look at my roster below can see there's a lot of guys I clearly drafted hoping for the upside to cash in (Wilson, Shorts, D Williams, RG3). I have one guy I'm already hoping turns it around but I'm ready to drop this week if someone is out on Waivers I really want which would be Antonio Brown as I just think Pitt may literally be THE fantasy wasteland this year.

tl;dr it varies to much to give a definite answer

 

GregR

Footballguy
It shouldn't matter that you drafted a player, or not, nor matter how early you drafted him. View every player based solely on his fantasy worth today and going forward, regardless of how he gets to your roster.

 

McGarnicle

Footballguy
Couple years ago I took a late-round flier on an undrafted WR who had missed his whole rookie season due to injury. I tuned in to his first game. First series, he runs a little hitch out of the slot on third and 4, wide open, the ball hits him on the hands and he drops it. QB doesn't look his way again for the entire game. I dropped him. It was Victor Cruz.

 

ratbast

Footballguy
It was pretty easy for me this year. I drafted Sydny Rice, LJames, and Leshore! I have Pryor, Edelman and Tolbert instead because i didnt wait.. For me its making my roster the best possible. I will always drop my worst player. I dont care where i drafted him. When its time to foldem, know when to walk away, know when to run...

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
Yea, Ridley is looking like a bust. One more week of this garbage and I'm throwing in the towel and starting Bradshaw. Can't believe I spent a 2nd round pick on him (non-PPR).

 

GregR

Footballguy
Thanks Greg. So when do you determine when enough is enough?
Whenever you think his situation doesn't favor him producing more than someone else's situation.

Do all you can to understand why the player isn't producing, and then decide how likely those factors are to continue. Is he slower? Injury that will linger? Is his QB inaccurate? Is the OC emphasizing other players, focusing on the running game, using him for a decoy deep and working underneath?

Then compare that to the same for other players, and cut him when someone else looks likely to do better. Everyone's situation differs. Deciding on Tom Brady and his receiver issues is going to be different than being concerned about Stevie Johnson and how often they may throw the ball in Buffalo, to being concerned about Arian Foster being brought on slow from lack of preseason and facing more challenge from Tate.

 
I hold players (barring injury) for Week 1. Stinking it up in the first week can be known to happen, and way to early to start panicking.

If they stink it up in Week 2, I see that as a trend. Now, I just don't go jettisoning players willy-nilly for the waiver flavor of the week -- but I do reevaluate and pull triggers on players and situations that seem to align.

For instance, I drafted Kenny Britt as a WR3 with the belief that he has WR2 upside. He sucked in WK 1, with one catch off of two targets. I would write this off as a low-scoring game where TEN had to manage the game instead of rely on moving the change.Locker only threw 20 times overall for 125 yards.

So I am not going to drop Britt for a guy like Hankerson, given that I know Britt has more talent and opportunity, and the revamped Titans O-line are settling in which should give Locker more time to find Kenny downfield. Would I have dropped him for Edelman? Tougher call, but answer is still no -- if Britt and TEN play to their middling ability, I think he performs better than Edelman who is a great short term play, but someone I expect will fade in and out over the season depending on the health of other receivers around him.

This week, TEN is up against the Texans, who play tough but coughed up 4 to Rivers. So it's a matchup Britt could take advantage of, especially if HOU continues to play the run well as they did against the Chargers last week and force Locker to throw.

If Britt craps up again and it's Nate Washington who looks like he's getting all the love and targets? Then yes, will be looking hard at the wire or to trade for guys I think have a comparable talent and situation, like T.Y. Hilton (great hands and speed with a solid QB tossing the rock) or perhaps even a guy like Marlon Brown (can take away #2 slot in Jones' absence if he continues to excel) or even Hankerson (providing a spark in a pool of meh receivers across the field from Garcon) if they both play well and see high numbers of targets.

Pulling the trigger in an informed way that mitigates risk and aligns with how I value players and their situations has helped me get a jump on guys a little earlier in the season. Waiting until after week 4 when a quarter of the season is over and early trends are widely known as fact can be too late to make a move.

 

duaneok66

Footballguy
Very good post but you can't expect Ten to drive the ball consistently on the Texans. I wouldn't be surprised if they scored less than 14 points.

 
duaneok66 said:
Very good post but you can't expect Ten to drive the ball consistently on the Texans. I wouldn't be surprised if they scored less than 14 points.
Thanks, man. I get your point and agree that the Titans aren't going to put up tons of points -- 14 - 21 is the range I see -- but not sure I made the point that the Titans will consistently drive the ball against Hou; just that the pass matchup seems more favorable than not, especially in relation to the run matchup.

This means more opportunity for Britt to perform. If he doesn't, will be looking for other options rather than waiting for another few weeks for him to come around.

 

duaneok66

Footballguy
I have Britt rostered as well. I am expecting little to nothing from him this weekend. Hopefully he will pick it up in a few games or so.

 

Bobby Guano

Footballguy
meyerj31 said:
Yea, Ridley is looking like a bust. One more week of this garbage and I'm throwing in the towel and starting Bradshaw. Can't believe I spent a 2nd round pick on him (non-PPR).
Benched him tonight for Joique Bell....really didn't have to think about it.

 

Da Man

Footballguy
I got rid of Britt after week 1 and grabbed Edelman. Too me it was a no brainer....Tom Brady vs Jake Locker throwing the ball is enough for me. After playing this silly game for 25 years I have learned to pull the trigger fast and truly believe that he who hesitates is lost

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Keep Wallace another week, but he's on a short leash
Whoa. That would be a mistake. I think you hang onto him and wait for chemistry to develop. He finished WR5 on just 98 targets one year. Bench him until he produces, sure. Drop him, no way.

 

FUBAR

Footballguy
Keep Wallace another week, but he's on a short leash
Whoa. That would be a mistake. I think you hang onto him and wait for chemistry to develop. He finished WR5 on just 98 targets one year. Bench him until he produces, sure. Drop him, no way.
depends on your options, depth and type of league.

It would probably take a pretty shallow bench to drop him, but I'm not expecting much this year. Even when he does produce, and I'm sure he'll have some nice games, his production will be inconsistent and a headache to decide when to start him.

 

Lord Fantasy

Footballguy
Thanks to the new CBA I'm beginning to wonder if we should treat the first game (and perhaps the second as well) as more preseason. With some notable exceptions (Denver, Philly, SF) most teams look as if they need more reps. I will be holding players like Chris Givens, DeAndre Hopkins, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Floyd, Cecil Shorts, and yes, Mike Wallace, until things settle down a bit more.

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
meyerj31 said:
Yea, Ridley is looking like a bust. One more week of this garbage and I'm throwing in the towel and starting Bradshaw. Can't believe I spent a 2nd round pick on him (non-PPR).
Benched him tonight for Joique Bell....really didn't have to think about it.
Hindsight is 20/20. If you had come in here and said "I'm benching him for Bell" you would have been laughed at ... don't do that, man. You don't post about all the wrong moves in hindsight so don't post about the right moves in hindsight.

I have Bell as well but there's no way I'm starting him over Ridley in non-PPR for at least 2-3 weeks. Ridley is almost guaranteed 20 touches per week.

 

Judge Smails

Footballguy
I don't really look at the player early. I look at the system. Does it look like a team just can't run or pass? If a line can't open holes, receivers can't get separation etc I'm concerned that it's a long term trend. I really take into consideration 2 things 1) opponents to date - if they've played smothering D's, shutdown corners, etc I'll discount it 2) injuries. If some missing pieces are out temporarily I'll hold on a bit longer.

But I will say this. More often than not I've waited too long to cut bait thinking a player has to get back to previous production or at least close to it. No they don't. Every year is different. Changes in players, coaches, schemes means that every year can be drastically different. I do think trends for the year are identified early. As an example, I think Eli will be much closer to production 2 years ago than last year. Healthy Nicks, suspect running game, Randle another year experience, Myers on board, etc. I'd love to acquire him. Others just look like it's a downward trend. Honestly, I think Brady's name will be better than his production with his current weapons - I'd sell. But you can't give up on studs early. Feel bad for any owner dumping Calvin last year for a song.

 

Breesisdaman

Footballguy
Classic example of this was a couple years ago when Andre Johnson was hurt. I took him with the second overall pick in the draft. He missed a good portion of the season if I remember but I kept him around thinking he would heal and get back in the action, then that same year VJax became healthy and available and I cut AJ and picked VJax up but it was way late in the year by that point. I probably should have made a move way before that but AJ had to loose his :"Can not cut" status first. Right now I am in the same boat with Chris Johnson. If I wanted to cut him (I don't) I couldn't because he is designated as a "Can not cut" player on my squad.

 

TALL hobbit

Footballguy
I always wait right until the week before said player will break out and then drop him.

Not a strategy for the faint of heart.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
It totally depends but unless I am truly desperate as a general rule I don't cut bait on guys before week 4-6.

By the same token I pay close attention to higher round draft picks on other teams that underperform through the first 4-6 weeks and if I think they are going to turn it around (or worth the risk at any rate) I target them heavily. Chris Johnson last season was a great example, very few owners would trade him away after the first two weeks but after 4 weeks his owner was willing to part with him for a song.

 

Breesisdaman

Footballguy
At the top of my cut bait list is Ryan Mathews. So much potential, system just doesnt seem to fit him even when he is healthy. He actually got two carries less than Fred Jackson last week. Now I just have to determine if that is a trend or not, try to trade him or dump him for the next waiver wonder.

 
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Chaka

Footballguy
At the top of my cut bait list is Ryan Mathews. So much potential, system just doesnt seem to fit him even when he is healthy. He actually got two carries less than Fred Jackson last week. Now I just have to determine if that is a trend or not, try to trade him or dump him for the next waiver wonder.
Interesting because he is exactly the kind of guy I would target in week 3-4. I expect three more mediocre games @ Phi and @ Ten & v Dal at which point I expect his value to bottom out (I would try to get him after the Ten game) then he has three really sweet matchups @ Oak, v Indy, @ Jax before his bye week. It gets tougher after that but he is the kind of guy who can give your team a mid-season boost to help you get to the playoffs.

 

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