KUBIAK Projections (1 Viewer)

[jtnt1096]

Just curious if someone who got the KUBIAK projections from Football Outsides can talk about how the projections were. Were you happy with them? How was the accuracy, etc.? Any other thoughts?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

paging: Construxboy

 

[ConstruxBoy]

paging: Construxboy

:( Heading to bed. I'll comment tomorrow.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I liked using them. I think they go against the grain in some cases, which is nice. However, they seem to go too far out of norm when they do and it helps to use them as a part of your overall projections as opposed to the only projections.

For example, here is their top 10 RB configured for a league I was in this year:

LaDainian TomlinsonFrank GoreBrian WestbrookSteven JacksonJoseph AddaiLaurence MaroneyReggie BushMaurice Jones-DrewCedric BensonWillis McGahee

Here is the top 10 from the Draft Dominator for the same league:

LaDainian TomlinsonSteven JacksonLarry JohnsonJoseph AddaiWillie ParkerTravis HenryReggie BushFrank GoreShaun AlexanderBrian Westbrook

Here is how they finished in that league:

LaDainian TomlinsonBrian WestbrookJoseph AddaiClinton PortisAdrian PetersonJamal LewisMarion BarberFrank GoreWillis McGaheeEarnest Graham

So if you moved Westbrook up based on KUBIAK, moved Gore down a little based on FBG and moved Johnson down some based on KUBIAK (he was 11th in KUBIAK), you likely would have had a better cheat sheet than just using one or the other alone.

 

[SSOG]

So if you moved Westbrook up based on KUBIAK, moved Gore down a little based on FBG and moved Johnson down some based on KUBIAK (he was 11th in KUBIAK), you likely would have had a better cheat sheet than just using one or the other alone.

But what if you moved Westbrook down based on FBG, Gore up based on KUBIAK, and Johnson up based on FBG?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

So if you moved Westbrook up based on KUBIAK, moved Gore down a little based on FBG and moved Johnson down some based on KUBIAK (he was 11th in KUBIAK), you likely would have had a better cheat sheet than just using one or the other alone.

But what if you moved Westbrook down based on FBG, Gore up based on KUBIAK, and Johnson up based on FBG?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

So if you moved Westbrook up based on KUBIAK, moved Gore down a little based on FBG and moved Johnson down some based on KUBIAK (he was 11th in KUBIAK), you likely would have had a better cheat sheet than just using one or the other alone.

But what if you moved Westbrook down based on FBG, Gore up based on KUBIAK, and Johnson up based on FBG?

You'd still end up in a better position than one of them by itself. Let's take Johnson for now. 3rd in FBG (and everyone else's, if not 2nd), move him down to say 6th. Move Gore up to say 4th. Westbrook to 5th, or even 7th. So your combined top 7 looks like:LTSJaxAddaiGoreLJWestbrookBushIsn't that better than either FBG's or KUBIAK's top 7 alone?

 

[SSOG]

So if you moved Westbrook up based on KUBIAK, moved Gore down a little based on FBG and moved Johnson down some based on KUBIAK (he was 11th in KUBIAK), you likely would have had a better cheat sheet than just using one or the other alone.

But what if you moved Westbrook down based on FBG, Gore up based on KUBIAK, and Johnson up based on FBG?

You'd still end up in a better position than one of them by itself. Let's take Johnson for now. 3rd in FBG (and everyone else's, if not 2nd), move him down to say 6th. Move Gore up to say 4th. Westbrook to 5th, or even 7th. So your combined top 7 looks like:

LT

SJax

Addai

Gore

LJ

Westbrook

Bush

Isn't that better than either FBG's or KUBIAK's top 7 alone?

Comparing that head to head against Kubiak, I notice the following:
Both had LT #1. That's a wash.
Both had SJax and Gore and 2nd and 4th. KUBIAK had Gore higher and SJax lower. Score one for Kubiak.
Both essentially swapped Addai and Westbrook. KUBIAK had Westy 3rd and Addai 5th. Consensus had Addai 3rd and Westy 6th. Not only did KUBIAK get the order right, it has to get a little tiny bonus point for having the pair very marginally higher than the consensus.
Both had Bush at 7th. That's a wash.
The 7th RB in the group varied between the two. In the Consensus, it was LJ, who finished 40th. In KUBIAK, it was Maroney, who finished 25th.Basically, everything the two disagreed on, KUBIAK was right. Gore was better than SJax, Westy was better than Addai, and Maroney was better than LJ.

 

[dawrecker]

It actually worked out really well for me. I ended up with the highest score for the season in all 3 of my leagues and took down 2 super bowl titles. The main thing with Kubiak isnt the top 10 which is being discussed here it is the people that it sees as busts and sleepers. They had Alexander ranked around 24th so there was no way you would have gotten stuck with that bum and I ended up with Favre, Roethlisberger or Brady on most every team which they were right on with. They also were huge on Westbrook and Addai (alot of people were) but they also had Jamal Lewis and Mcgahee as pretty high which I also ended up with on several teams and they played really well too. Were they perfect, no...They had Marvin Harrison rated #1 WR, Moss really low (but who didnt) and V Young way too high as well. Overall, though I am not sure there were too many other better predictions, especially on the guys where they greatly differed from the general consensus that every other publication puts out.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

So if you moved Westbrook up based on KUBIAK, moved Gore down a little based on FBG and moved Johnson down some based on KUBIAK (he was 11th in KUBIAK), you likely would have had a better cheat sheet than just using one or the other alone.

But what if you moved Westbrook down based on FBG, Gore up based on KUBIAK, and Johnson up based on FBG?

You'd still end up in a better position than one of them by itself. Let's take Johnson for now. 3rd in FBG (and everyone else's, if not 2nd), move him down to say 6th. Move Gore up to say 4th. Westbrook to 5th, or even 7th. So your combined top 7 looks like:

LT

SJax

Addai

Gore

LJ

Westbrook

Bush

Isn't that better than either FBG's or KUBIAK's top 7 alone?

Comparing that head to head against Kubiak, I notice the following:
Both had LT #1. That's a wash.
Both had SJax and Gore and 2nd and 4th. KUBIAK had Gore higher and SJax lower. Score one for Kubiak.
Both essentially swapped Addai and Westbrook. KUBIAK had Westy 3rd and Addai 5th. Consensus had Addai 3rd and Westy 6th. Not only did KUBIAK get the order right, it has to get a little tiny bonus point for having the pair very marginally higher than the consensus.
Both had Bush at 7th. That's a wash.
The 7th RB in the group varied between the two. In the Consensus, it was LJ, who finished 40th. In KUBIAK, it was Maroney, who finished 25th.Basically, everything the two disagreed on, KUBIAK was right. Gore was better than SJax, Westy was better than Addai, and Maroney was better than LJ.

I can't argue that KUBIAK did well this season. Certainly better than in 2006. Heck, the only league I drafted in without a computer and with only the KUBIAK spreadsheet as a cheat sheet, I won the title.