Lamar Miller vs David Wilson (1 Viewer)

[Grahamburn]

I'm not assuming anything. I'm trying to compare both of these players objectively because I have an interest in them.

Wilson's fumbling is a legitimate concern. He fumbled in the first game of the season, cried, and was promptly benched. Granted, he didn't fumble the rest of the season, but he had a history of it in college. You don't think Tom Coughlin will reduce his workload if he fumbles late in a game when the Giants have a 7 point lead? I'm sorry, but he will, especially if Andre Brown is healthy and capable.

It's also pretty clear Brown will be the short yardage and goalline back. He was effective in that role last season. It's fine to assume he'll get hurt, but he isn't hurt right now and he affects Wilson's value.

Miller has similar measurables, fewer question marks, less competition, and in my opinion the inside track to more fantasy points this year. I voted for Miller in 2013. Wilson in dynasty.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

This thread needs to be taken out back and shot.

 

[Khy]

I'm not assuming anything. I'm trying to compare both of these players objectively because I have an interest in them.

Wilson's fumbling is a legitimate concern. He fumbled in the first game of the season, cried, and was promptly benched. Granted, he didn't fumble the rest of the season, but he had a history of it in college. You don't think Tom Coughlin will reduce his workload if he fumbles late in a game when the Giants have a 7 point lead? I'm sorry, but he will, especially if Andre Brown is healthy and capable.

It's also pretty clear Brown will be the short yardage and goalline back. He was effective in that role last season. It's fine to assume he'll get hurt, but he isn't hurt right now and he affects Wilson's value.

Miller has similar measurables, fewer question marks, less competition, and in my opinion the inside track to more fantasy points this year. I voted for Miller in 2013. Wilson in dynasty.

I'm not going to sit here and say "It's impossible Miller outproduces Wilson this season" but I do find it rather unlikely.

Coughlin has shown confidence in his 'lead back' in the past. When Bradshaw took over for Jacobs in 2010 he had 7 fumbles, he was never benched like Wilson was last year because he was THE guy. I remember some of those fumbles some of them came at crucial game moments. Last year he had 3 fumbles again and once again all 3 were in rather crucial game moments but on the next drive he was the guy out there. Brown was there, he could have stepped in and Wilson was there he could of stepped in.

The reason Wilson was benched last year has always been 'assumed' to be that one fumble. I'm in the other camp where I think the fumble was probably about 10% of the reason he was benched. It was the reason he was benched for the rest of that game. Not the reason he 6 carries in the next 4 weeks. There were several reasons for that in my opinion. Part of it was a maturity thing, Wilson is a very animated guy and he gets amped up a lot. Coughlin really dislikes that, we've even seen him get into screaming matches with Bradshaw about the same thing. He likes leadership but he wants it to be tamed leadership. So I think the main part of the benching was that, past that I think his pass protection was a larger concern than his fumbling. If you can't protect Eli you can't be on the field on non-running plays. They worked on that all of last season and all of this season. I sincerely believe that Wilson could open this year and fumble on the first play of the season and still stay out there and get the ball again as long as he maintains his composure about it. If he can fumble and walk off the field with an Eli style of reaction just a "Dammit, well I guess I'm going to have to take my next carry to the house to make up for it." then he will get that shot. If he walks off crying again it could be an issue but I think last years 'lesson' from big Tom hit home for him.

Sure Brown will be the short yardage/goal line back. I'm still of the opinion that the carries split will look similar to Bradshaw/Jacobs circa 2010. Which was 276/147. It won't effect Wilson's value as much as you think. Who it will effect is Eli and the WRs values somewhat as they will be throwing the ball a little less than the past few seasons. In 2011 Eli threw the ball 589 times, compared to 539 the year prior and 536 last season. Why? Because the running attack was garbage in 2011. You'll likely see him scale back down to when they had a good running attack where they through for closer to 490-515 passes. Thus offsetting the difference in plays and carries for the RBs.

Miller really doesn't have similar measurable. I've seen a few people say that in this thread and I don't know where it's coming from. Miller is half a step faster than Wilson an inch taller but also about 13 lbs heavier than him (205 vs 218). Wilson posts better numbers in almost every 'football' measurable stat line besides 40 speed though. He has a better vert and broad jump and has better cutting ability than Miller. One of the biggest issues with Miller coming out of school was that he had very mediocre feet. While he has a smooth stride in his running he won't make someone miss on a nice juke to often and he doesn't really have a spin move or any real move worth noting. He's a straight line running back who hits the hole fast and relies on his speed to get him places. You won't see Miller take a carry and cut through an unexpected hole that opened up to the left of the line when the play was designed to run right. He can't make that cut. When I say I'm down on Miller I legitimately mean I'm down on him, it has nothing to do with his comparison to Wilson. I think he has a floor and a ceiling that are almost identical which is mid RB2 (RB15-20) numbers because of sheer volume. I don't see him as someone that could surprise us like Doug Martin did last season. Wilson has a slightly lower floor than Miller as probably a low-RB2 (18-24) but his ceiling is Top 5. I'll take the risk of a few extra points on the floor for the upside of top 5 production anyday.

 

[Khy]

This thread needs to be taken out back and shot.

You're right... a thread debating two young promising running backs potential on a fantasy football forum? THE SHAME

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

This thread needs to be taken out back and shot.

You're right... a thread debating two young promising running backs potential on a fantasy football forum? THE SHAME

It's a commentary on the quality of debate going on in here.

 

[TheFanatic]

This thread needs to be taken out back and shot.

You're right... a thread debating two young promising running backs potential on a fantasy football forum? THE SHAME

It's a commentary on the quality of debate going on in here.

And these comments add or detract from that quality?

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

This thread needs to be taken out back and shot.

You're right... a thread debating two young promising running backs potential on a fantasy football forum? THE SHAME

It's a commentary on the quality of debate going on in here.

And these comments add or detract from that quality?

Oh boo hoo. What is it with this forum? Everyone is so uptight. I was skimming through this thread and thought I couldn't be the only one thinking this so I decided to mix in a little comedy. Not surprisingly those of you that have written thousand word posts all saying the same thing and nothing at the same time are all offended. Perhaps you all see it, too, and feel it hit a little too close to home? I dunno. In that case, yes I did add something. atsselfonback:

 

[Warrior]

This thread needs to be taken out back and shot.

You're right... a thread debating two young promising running backs potential on a fantasy football forum? THE SHAME

It's a commentary on the quality of debate going on in here.

And these comments add or detract from that quality?

Oh boo hoo. What is it with this forum? Everyone is so uptight. I was skimming through this thread and thought I couldn't be the only one thinking this so I decided to mix in a little comedy. Not surprisingly those of you that have written thousand word posts all saying the same thing and nothing at the same time are all offended. Perhaps you all see it, too, and feel it hit a little too close to home? I dunno. In that case, yes I did add something.atsselfonback:

Please leve and don't come back.

 

[TheFanatic]

This thread needs to be taken out back and shot.

You're right... a thread debating two young promising running backs potential on a fantasy football forum? THE SHAME

It's a commentary on the quality of debate going on in here.

And these comments add or detract from that quality?

Oh boo hoo. What is it with this forum? Everyone is so uptight. I was skimming through this thread and thought I couldn't be the only one thinking this so I decided to mix in a little comedy. Not surprisingly those of you that have written thousand word posts all saying the same thing and nothing at the same time are all offended. Perhaps you all see it, too, and feel it hit a little too close to home? I dunno. In that case, yes I did add something.atsselfonback:

You basically walked into a room that you think smells like crap, took a dump and then complained about the smell. It's called hypocrisy.

Yes, people in this thread are arguing all kinds of stuff. That's what we do in forums. You didn't offer anything to improve the situation, you just complained. And when called on it, found some moral high ground but in the end, you added nothing and only made it worse. At least the people argueing are talking about the subject of the thread rather than whining.

 

[jurb26]

I happen to think this is a quality thread... Until the last few posts by itsonlytheriver that is.

 

[Khy]

I happen to think this is a quality thread... Until the last few posts by itsonlytheriver that is.

Seriously... there are tons of breakdowns and discussion in this thread regarding the two players. I fail to see how this is a 'bad' thread. There are much... much... MUCH worse on these boards.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Never change, Shark Pool.

 

[LususV]

Obvious troll is obvious.

 

[gianmarco]

Coughlin has shown confidence in his 'lead back' in the past. When Bradshaw took over for Jacobs in 2010 he had 7 fumbles, he was never benched like Wilson was last year because he was THE guy. I remember some of those fumbles some of them came at crucial game moments. Last year he had 3 fumbles again and once again all 3 were in rather crucial game moments but on the next drive he was the guy out there. Brown was there, he could have stepped in and Wilson was there he could of stepped in.
The reason Wilson was benched last year has always been 'assumed' to be that one fumble. I'm in the other camp where I think the fumble was probably about 10% of the reason he was benched. It was the reason he was benched for the rest of that game. Not the reason he 6 carries in the next 4 weeks. There were several reasons for that in my opinion. Part of it was a maturity thing, Wilson is a very animated guy and he gets amped up a lot. Coughlin really dislikes that, we've even seen him get into screaming matches with Bradshaw about the same thing. He likes leadership but he wants it to be tamed leadership. So I think the main part of the benching was that, past that I think his pass protection was a larger concern than his fumbling. If you can't protect Eli you can't be on the field on non-running plays. They worked on that all of last season and all of this season. I sincerely believe that Wilson could open this year and fumble on the first play of the season and still stay out there and get the ball again as long as he maintains his composure about it. If he can fumble and walk off the field with an Eli style of reaction just a "Dammit, well I guess I'm going to have to take my next carry to the house to make up for it." then he will get that shot. If he walks off crying again it could be an issue but I think last years 'lesson' from big Tom hit home for him.

Sure Brown will be the short yardage/goal line back. I'm still of the opinion that the carries split will look similar to Bradshaw/Jacobs circa 2010. Which was 276/147. It won't effect Wilson's value as much as you think. Who it will effect is Eli and the WRs values somewhat as they will be throwing the ball a little less than the past few seasons. In 2011 Eli threw the ball 589 times, compared to 539 the year prior and 536 last season. Why? Because the running attack was garbage in 2011. You'll likely see him scale back down to when they had a good running attack where they through for closer to 490-515 passes. Thus offsetting the difference in plays and carries for the RBs.

I don't agree with the Miller portions of the post, but I think the above re: Wilson is spot-on.

 

[TheFanatic]

Coughlin has shown confidence in his 'lead back' in the past. When Bradshaw took over for Jacobs in 2010 he had 7 fumbles, he was never benched like Wilson was last year because he was THE guy. I remember some of those fumbles some of them came at crucial game moments. Last year he had 3 fumbles again and once again all 3 were in rather crucial game moments but on the next drive he was the guy out there. Brown was there, he could have stepped in and Wilson was there he could of stepped in.
The reason Wilson was benched last year has always been 'assumed' to be that one fumble. I'm in the other camp where I think the fumble was probably about 10% of the reason he was benched. It was the reason he was benched for the rest of that game. Not the reason he 6 carries in the next 4 weeks. There were several reasons for that in my opinion. Part of it was a maturity thing, Wilson is a very animated guy and he gets amped up a lot. Coughlin really dislikes that, we've even seen him get into screaming matches with Bradshaw about the same thing. He likes leadership but he wants it to be tamed leadership. So I think the main part of the benching was that, past that I think his pass protection was a larger concern than his fumbling. If you can't protect Eli you can't be on the field on non-running plays. They worked on that all of last season and all of this season. I sincerely believe that Wilson could open this year and fumble on the first play of the season and still stay out there and get the ball again as long as he maintains his composure about it. If he can fumble and walk off the field with an Eli style of reaction just a "Dammit, well I guess I'm going to have to take my next carry to the house to make up for it." then he will get that shot. If he walks off crying again it could be an issue but I think last years 'lesson' from big Tom hit home for him.

Sure Brown will be the short yardage/goal line back. I'm still of the opinion that the carries split will look similar to Bradshaw/Jacobs circa 2010. Which was 276/147. It won't effect Wilson's value as much as you think. Who it will effect is Eli and the WRs values somewhat as they will be throwing the ball a little less than the past few seasons. In 2011 Eli threw the ball 589 times, compared to 539 the year prior and 536 last season. Why? Because the running attack was garbage in 2011. You'll likely see him scale back down to when they had a good running attack where they through for closer to 490-515 passes. Thus offsetting the difference in plays and carries for the RBs.

I don't agree with the Miller portions of the post, but I think the above re: Wilson is spot-on.

This message was approved by Gian Marco. Well, not that Miller stuff, but the rest he approves!