LeGarrette Blount signs with NE (3 Viewers)

[Anarchy99]

When Brady plays the Pats are a pass-first team...Blount will still be a big part of the offense but his role will be less and probably change week-to-week like it has in the past...also, there is another very big X-factor...Dion Lewis...he could be coming back week 7 and if he's the same player he was last season he will be a big part their offense...when he was on the field last year it took their offense to another level...I don't see BB lessening his role if he's healthy...that is not how he does things...

A couple of things. I think it's very unlikely Lewis would be available Week 7. I don't think it would be possible for him to be in game shape by then. He hasn't taken any contact since his injury and missed all of camp. IIRC, teams have 2 weeks to decide what to do with players (activate them, put them on IR, or release them). IMO, Week 9 might be a more reasonable return date.

I also think rust will be a factor, as will getting up to speed and integrated with the offense. He will probably be on a snap count and/or be used situationally for awhile. Bottom line, we may not see the Lewis of last year and he may not fill the same role or see the same number of plays as in 2015. 

As far as Blount goes, once Brady returns I don't see Blount staying at a 400 carry pace. He's averaging 25 carries a game so far. Prior to this year, he averaged 11.5 carries a game. I would guess his usage will go back to feast or famine, game plan specific. So 5 carries one game and 18 the next.

 

[Shutout]

I would sell high.  With Brady, the pats are a throw first team and with Lewis, even more so.   Blount can still have great games but he is much more susceptible to having those 9/27 games too.  There is a big difference between needing Blount as part of a limited set of options for a game and having him as an option.  

I think if you look at how the Patriots were operating last year when they had all hands on deck, it was nearly as nice to be a Blount owner

 

[Pipes]

I would sell high.  With Brady, the pats are a throw first team and with Lewis, even more so.   Blount can still have great games but he is much more susceptible to having those 9/27 games too.  There is a big difference between needing Blount as part of a limited set of options for a game and having him as an option.  

I think if you look at how the Patriots were operating last year when they had all hands on deck, it was nearly as nice to be a Blount owner

Agreed...had Blount last year and it was frustrating to say the least.  This is a perfect storm for him right now so I fully agree with those that say sell high if you can.

 

[Skoo]

Once the Pats are not on their 2nd/3rd QB, I think it will be hard to project when Blount's big games will be. 

You can look at the schedule & say "the Pats should beat this team easy, Blount will have big numbers at the end of the game when they are running out the clock."  That's what happened the last two weeks; the Pats got up big, and Blount did his damage in the 2nd half.  Against Miami, 14/31/0 in the 1st half, 15/92/1 in the second.  Against Houston, 7/11/0 in the 1st half, 17/94/2 in the second.

When Brady comes back, NE might just step on their opponents' neck when they get up; instead of giving Blount the ball late in the game, they might trust Brady to keep throwing & run the score up.

I could be wrong, but I feel like the past few years if they are up big they are happy to ride Blount in the 2nd half. 

Bad teams, teams with bad run defenses and good pass defenses, that's who I want Blount against.

Another thing that I think is important to note here - his competition at RB league-wide.

Look at how thin the RB position is already, and we're only 2 weeks into the season.

Sure, it won't happen every game but a guy getting 20+ carries is basically a unicorn in today's NFL. I'm not expecting him to win the league for me, but I think he might have more value than people think simply because the position is so thin right now.

How many rock-solid RB1s are there right now? 5?

DJ, CJA, Bell/DWill, Forte, Elliot?

 

[Boston]

A couple of things. I think it's very unlikely Lewis would be available Week 7. I don't think it would be possible for him to be in game shape by then. He hasn't taken any contact since his injury and missed all of camp. IIRC, teams have 2 weeks to decide what to do with players (activate them, put them on IR, or release them). IMO, Week 9 might be a more reasonable return date.

I also think rust will be a factor, as will getting up to speed and integrated with the offense. He will probably be on a snap count and/or be used situationally for awhile. Bottom line, we may not see the Lewis of last year and he may not fill the same role or see the same number of plays as in 2015. 

As far as Blount goes, once Brady returns I don't see Blount staying at a 400 carry pace. He's averaging 25 carries a game so far. Prior to this year, he averaged 11.5 carries a game. I would guess his usage will go back to feast or famine, game plan specific. So 5 carries one game and 18 the next.

We'll see about Lewis...I hope you are wrong but the fact he had to go under the knife again was not a good sign...he adds another dimension to this offense...one they really never have had in the BB/Brady era...I love Faulk but he was not a threat to go the distance the way Lewis is...with all their other weapons it is almost indefensible...after looking good against Arizona White seems to be looking average again and right now Foster is MIA...once they get into games against teams like the Steelers and Broncos that role will become much more important...

 

[Anarchy99]

I'll throw this out there as a general question. Who in the past as a skilled position player started the year on PUP and came back and produced at a similar or higher level that season? I can't think of anyone off the top of my head. There probably are some, I just can't think of any. 

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'll throw this out there as a general question. Who in the past as a skilled position player started the year on PUP and came back and produced at a similar or higher level that season? I can't think of anyone off the top of my head. There probably are some, I just can't think of any. 

Gronk rocked it off PUP once or twice IIRC.

 

[Anarchy99]

Gronk was on PUP once . . . In 2013. He did do well on his return but then got hurt and was done for the season after 7 games. 

 

[ponchsox]

Why are we talking about Gronk in a Blount thread?

 

[Anarchy99]

Why are we talking about Gronk in a Blount thread?

We we talking about Blount's role once Lewis comes off PUP. I asked who else has done well coming off of PUP. 

 

[Faust]

Patriots Notes: Is LeGarrette Blount’s Heavy Workload Cause For Concern? 

 

[MaxThreshold]

We we talking about Blount's role once Lewis comes off PUP. I asked who else has done well coming off of PUP. 

I'm tempted to grab Dion Lewis now but I'm not so sure he's gong to be the same guy when he gets back.  My gut tells me Blount is going to be the main RB for the entire season (barring injury).

 

[Anarchy99]

I'm tempted to grab Dion Lewis now but I'm not so sure he's gong to be the same guy when he gets back.  My gut tells me Blount is going to be the main RB for the entire season (barring injury).

As I have been saying, who knows when or if Lewis will come back this year and what level of performance he will provide. 

However, that doesn't mean all that much to Blount. We have seen how they use Blount when Brady plays, and it is not as a 25 carry a game pass. Blount also does not have much of a role in the passing game, which last year went to Lewis and White. 

So yeah, Blount will be the primary ball carrier but he is not a 3 down back, nor do the Patriots game plan like normal teams. Blount could see 5 carries one week and he could have all the RB carries that week. He will likely have a couple of TD dependent games where he is a RB1 for fantasy, but most of the time he most likely will be a so so RB2 or OK RB3. 

 

[MaxThreshold]

As I have been saying, who knows when or if Lewis will come back this year and what level of performance he will provide. 

However, that doesn't mean all that much to Blount. We have seen how they use Blount when Brady plays, and it is not as a 25 carry a game pass. Blount also does not have much of a role in the passing game, which last year went to Lewis and White. 

So yeah, Blount will be the primary ball carrier but he is not a 3 down back, nor do the Patriots game plan like normal teams. Blount could see 5 carries one week and he could have all the RB carries that week. He will likely have a couple of TD dependent games where he is a RB1 for fantasy, but most of the time he most likely will be a so so RB2 or OK RB3. 

Good, solid post here.  

 

[zamboni]

Not a WDIS question, but curious if people are starting Blount tomorrow and over whom.

 

[Tanner9919]

His reward for helping carry the team to a soon 2 be 4-0 is thst hes the bellcow ROS..Lewis is a broken down car and who knows what he'll be like when he comes back from the shop. We are putting FAR too much faith in Lewis and criminally undervaluing Blount. 

He's getting 20 carries per game imagine what he'll do with those carries when Brady comes back..

He's a stud RB, people..get on the bandwagon!

 

[dipandglide]

I wish he had more receptions to bring that floor up. If you can get him on the cheap(3rd or so) that's a win for contenders. If I were buying I'd wait to buy when he's coming off that 12/40/0 type of game we all know too well. 

 

[Anarchy99]

His reward for helping carry the team to a soon 2 be 4-0 is thst hes the bellcow ROS..Lewis is a broken down car and who knows what he'll be like when he comes back from the shop. We are putting FAR too much faith in Lewis and criminally undervaluing Blount. 

He's getting 20 carries per game imagine what he'll do with those carries when Brady comes back..

He's a stud RB, people..get on the bandwagon!

Let's try this again. Whether Lewis plays a single snap this year won't impact Blount. Lewis is a 3rd down and change of pace back. Blount wouldn't get the ball then anyway, as White or Foster will fill in for Lewis. When Blount and Lewis were active at the same time last year, Lewis averaged six carries a game.

New England is currently first in the league in rushing attempts and 31st in the league in passing attempts. People that think things are going to stay the same the rest of the season just aren't paying attention. This is a temporary fix.

Blount's reward for doing well is keeping his roster spot and getting a paycheck. If he does what they ask him, maybe he will get a contract extension. 

 

[zamboni]

The question begs why Blount isn't used in the passing game. He's no Matt Forte, but has shown to be adequate in that aspect of the game.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Not a WDIS question, but curious if people are starting Blount tomorrow and over whom.

Debating him vs Gordon.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

The question begs why Blount isn't used in the passing game. He's no Matt Forte, but has shown to be adequate in that aspect of the game.

The Dark Lord doesn't put players in a position to perform adequately.

 

[Run It Up]

The question begs why Blount isn't used in the passing game. He's no Matt Forte, but has shown to be adequate in that aspect of the game.

Cause he isn't as good as literally any of their other 4 rbs at that role. He's not terrible but I would definitely slot him in somewhere between there and well below average.

 

[Team Smokin']

Debating him vs Gordon.

Kind of incredible isn't it, Larry? I have Blount plugged into my flex over C Michael and M Jones, Jr. We get credited for # of carries, which gives Blount the nod over Jones, at least for this week. I think he'll see a heavy dose. You'd think Rex would perhaps game plan to stop the run?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

. I think he'll see a heavy dose. You'd think Rex would perhaps game plan to stop the run?

Yes this is the dilemma. 

 

[Team Smokin']

Yes this is the dilemma. 

Normally teams game plan against Brady and Gronk. And they still can't stop them. Tommorrow it could be Blount? Eight in the box forcing whomever is the QB to throw?

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Not a WDIS question, but curious if people are starting Blount tomorrow and over whom.

Played him over Gio.  #notaclosecall

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Let's try this again. Whether Lewis plays a single snap this year won't impact Blount. Lewis is a 3rd down and change of pace back. Blount wouldn't get the ball then anyway, as White or Foster will fill in for Lewis. When Blount and Lewis were active at the same time last year, Lewis averaged six carries a game.

Let's try this again.  I think you're totally misreading this situation in regards to Lewis vs. White.

Lewis is much better than White, hence when he is the alternative to Blount they are more willing to go to that alternative.  Lewis may have only averaged six carries a game but White has only averaged two carries per game.

And that's not even the whole story.  Being that he's also a better receiver he's in the game more even outside of actual rushing plays.  Lewis is NOT a 3rd down back.  He's not just some guy that comes in on 3rd and 15.  He plays regularly on 1st and 2nd down.  40 of his 46 receptions (87%) last year came on 1st or 2nd down.

James White, meanwhile, because of his ineffectiveness has been reduced to a 3rd down back.  50% of his receptions have come on 3rd down and that number has trended upwards after his struggles early after replacing Lewis last season.  When moving from White to Lewis you're moving from a guy that is basically a 3rd down back to a guy that is going to get very regular work on all 3 downs.  That certainly effects Blount.  Brady may well be a bigger factor, but there is still a big difference between Lewis vs. White as the other half of the committee if Lewis is not too gimpy to matter.  Lewis steals a lot more 1st/2nd down work than White does.

 

[zamboni]

With Brissett starting, should be another healthy dose of carries for Blount today.

 

[Deamon]

With Brissett starting, should be another healthy dose of carries for Blount today.

value go UP or DOWN with brady return??

 

[mquinnjr]

value go UP or DOWN with brady return??

I think neutral. If the games go as we would assume with Brady back airing it out non-stop, he'll have value as a COP from the pass pre-lead buildup, and in garbage time to salt away wins. Without Lewis around, I think there's still solid flex+ value here. RZ/GL work will reduce with Brady back, but if any of those opportunities go to the run, they'll go to Blount.

 

[FF Ninja]

Let's try this again.  I think you're totally misreading this situation in regards to Lewis vs. White.

Lewis is much better than White, hence when he is the alternative to Blount they are more willing to go to that alternative.  Lewis may have only averaged six carries a game but White has only averaged two carries per game.

And that's not even the whole story.  Being that he's also a better receiver he's in the game more even outside of actual rushing plays.  Lewis is NOT a 3rd down back.  He's not just some guy that comes in on 3rd and 15.  He plays regularly on 1st and 2nd down.  40 of his 46 receptions (87%) last year came on 1st or 2nd down.

James White, meanwhile, because of his ineffectiveness has been reduced to a 3rd down back.  50% of his receptions have come on 3rd down and that number has trended upwards after his struggles early after replacing Lewis last season.  When moving from White to Lewis you're moving from a guy that is basically a 3rd down back to a guy that is going to get very regular work on all 3 downs.  That certainly effects Blount.  Brady may well be a bigger factor, but there is still a big difference between Lewis vs. White as the other half of the committee if Lewis is not too gimpy to matter.  Lewis steals a lot more 1st/2nd down work than White does.

Anarchy makes good posts, but his assessment that Lewis has no impact on Blount is pure crazy. Just like it was crazy when other people thought White would just plug into Lewis' role. The Patriots love them some Dion Lewis. When he comes back, it'll hurt Blount's snap and touch counts. Turning them both into great "best ball" assets, but kind of iffy weekly plays.

 

[Anarchy99]

The reason why I said Lewis didn't impact Blount as much as people think is Blount typically plays in running situations and is not much of a receiving threat. So he generally wouldn't be playing in passing sets or passing situations. 

With Brady coming back, Blount will play in run centric game plans and perhaps to run clock late in games. He has not been a guy that plays in 60 snaps a game. 

If Lewis was in the game last year, it was in sets designed to pass and not specifically set up to run. Yes, Brady would audible to runs or on occasion Lewis would get a designed run. But Blount would generally not be in on plays with Brady in a shotgun formation. 

With Brady coming back, it is extremely unlikely that Blount will get the carries or the snaps that he has been getting. Brady coming back IS NOT a plus for Blount, unless the team plans on going back to the Dillon era ground and pound offense. 

Last year, Blount played 5 games without Lewis and his carry totals were pretty much the same as when Lewis played. In fact, his carries probably dropped his last three games. 

 

[rickyg]

I agree with anarchy that lewis' return will not affect Blount as much as people think.  

Last year the pats fell in love with lewis and he did make Blount rather irrelevant in several games. BUT, then he suffered that acl, and belicheck now realizes that he's not the kind of back that can shoulder an every down workload.  

Blount THIS year IMO will retain value all season more so than last year.  Lewis will make James white irrelevant.  But they are going to preserve him for the playoffs. IMHO

 

[yoman]

I think Blount will continue to be a factor but me be relegated to a flex play with RB1 upside but I expect Bellichick/Brady will abandon the running game against certain opponents.  I think with Brady getting a little older in would probably be better to have more of a running game to keep the defenses honest but I doubt they see things that way.   

 

[FF Ninja]

Whether Lewis plays a single snap this year won't impact Blount.

=/=

I said Lewis didn't impact Blount as much as people think

You also said Lewis was a 3rd down, CoP back, but as Bagel pointed out 40 of 46 receptions occurred on 1st or 2nd down.

I'm a Blount fan. I agree his value won't plummet when Lewis comes back. But his value takes a hit because Lewis will play and he'll play on some early downs that Blount would've played on.

 

[Anarchy99]

=/=

You also said Lewis was a 3rd down, CoP back, but as Bagel pointed out 40 of 46 receptions occurred on 1st or 2nd down.

I'm a Blount fan. I agree his value won't plummet when Lewis comes back. But his value takes a hit because Lewis will play and he'll play on some early downs that Blount would've played on.

3rd down back and COP back AKA as "receiving back" AKA "passing down back." The terms are interchangeable. Either way, any of those terms are a lot different than "heavy carry running back" or "1st and 2nd down between the tackles RB."

Lewis may play 75% of the snaps, but he will never get 75% of the carries. Blount may only play 25% of the snaps, but he could see 75% of the carries. That being said, there are plenty of weeks when 75% of the carries still is not a big number.

Blount and Brady have played together without Lewis in 32 games. Blount has averaged 11.2 carries in those games. In 13 of those games, Blount has had single digit carries. In 4 of those games, Blount had 20 or more carries. In 12 of those games, Blount had 10-14 carries.

It always feels like Blount is getting, or should be getting, a bigger workload than he gets. I think that's because we see him have huge games agaisnt the Colts with 150 rushing yards and 3 or 4 TD.

Those are the numbers WITHOUT Lewis in the lineup. In the limited sample where Blount played with Lewis, Blount actually averaged more carries (15.8), but that was likely due to the fact that the Pats played teams poor against the run and the game plan for several of those games featured Blount.

 

[FF Ninja]

3rd down back and COP back AKA as "receiving back" AKA "passing down back." The terms are interchangeable. Either way, any of those terms are a lot different than "heavy carry running back" or "1st and 2nd down between the tackles RB."

Lewis may play 75% of the snaps, but he will never get 75% of the carries. Blount may only play 25% of the snaps, but he could see 75% of the carries. That being said, there are plenty of weeks when 75% of the carries still is not a big number.

Blount and Brady have played together without Lewis in 32 games. Blount has averaged 11.2 carries in those games. In 13 of those games, Blount has had single digit carries. In 4 of those games, Blount had 20 or more carries. In 12 of those games, Blount had 10-14 carries.

It always feels like Blount is getting, or should be getting, a bigger workload than he gets. I think that's because we see him have huge games agaisnt the Colts with 150 rushing yards and 3 or 4 TD.

Those are the numbers WITHOUT Lewis in the lineup. In the limited sample where Blount played with Lewis, Blount actually averaged more carries (15.8), but that was likely due to the fact that the Pats played teams poor against the run and the game plan for several of those games featured Blount.

I don't disagree with anything here except maybe that there is such a thing as a COP/passing down back in NE. Sometimes they pass so much that the between the tackles runner is the COP, which you alluded to with the 75/25 talk. I only took issue at the beginning with the idea that Lewis' availability has no impact on Blount. It's not as significant as some might think, but Lewis will command a healthy number of snaps and consequently a few touches that would've gone to Blount. That being said, has anyone heard anything about Dion's rehab?

 

[Anarchy99]

Tom Curran answered a mail bag question the other day and said he has not seen Lewis in the locker room. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Tom Curran answered a mail bag question the other day and said he has not seen Lewis in the locker room. 

That's weird. Contradicts this story from 9/30 (which is basically pointless other than mentioning he was in the locker room): http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/patriots-dion-lewis-walking-well-as-return-approaches/

Lewis is required to miss New England's first six games of this season, but appeared to be moving around without problem when seen in the team's locker room Friday.

 

[Anarchy99]

http://www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/friday-bag-why-only-slap-wrist-seahawks-ota-violations

Here's what Curran posted last Feiday. 

 

[need2know]

Won't white be more valuable now with brady coming back?  Until lewis returns that is

 

[Anarchy99]

In theory White will be more valuable with Brady than without Brady.  After Lewis went down last year, White was the #13 RB the rest of the way in PPR leagues. He did seem to score a high number of TDs, so that led to such a high ranking. 

 

[WheelsUp]

Everyone is more valuable with Brady back. I even have more value to life with Brady back.

 

[Anarchy99]

Everyone is more valuable with Brady back. I even have more value to life with Brady back.

Except Blount. 

 

[WheelsUp]

Disagree.

 

[Boston]

Except Blount. 

Agreed...his value was as high as it's gonna be...now that TB12 is back the ball is gonna be in the air early and often...

 

[Anarchy99]

Disagree.

Feel free to disagree, but please provide a case as to why 3 years of Brady and Blount history and McDaniels play calling should be ignored.

 

[WheelsUp]

I can argue Blount will get more chances to produce yards to grind out games that Brady already put away and he will get more chances at TDs too.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I can argue Blount will get more chances to produce yards to grind out games that Brady already put away and he will get more chances at TDs too.

I mean you can argue it, but it's tough to see/show in practice.  The numbers are pretty clear on this one.

Blount has averaged 22-88-1 per game this year with Brady out.  He averaged 13-58-0.5 last year with Brady playing.

 

[Anarchy99]

I can argue Blount will get more chances to produce yards to grind out games that Brady already put away and he will get more chances at TDs too.

Blount has played 38 regular season and post season games with Brady at QB. He scored at least 1 TD in 13 of them.

Fantasy wise, in the 33 games playing with Brady in the regular season since 2013.

In that 3 year time frame (2013-2015), of RBs that played in at least 20 games, count only his games in NE in the regular season, Blouont averaged 8.71 ppg in 0 ppr leagues (ranking RB29) and 9.08 in 1 PPR leagues (ranking RB39).

Unless the Pats radically go in a different direction, I really don't see how Brady coming back will improve the numbers Blount has produced so far this year.