Let's talk Tiki... (1 Viewer)

[P Boy]

This may well be the plan going in, but what I am saying is that Jacobs still has a lot to prove on this level before he will warrant this kind of workload.  It may happen, it may not, but I am more comfortable projecting Tiki to get 330 touches and most of the goal line work than I am projecting Jacobs to get 120 touches and most of the goal line work.

That's why we're here debating, isn't it? Both sides have some very valid points (of which Jacobs draft position is amongst the least relevant, IMO. I could post a list of some pretty good NFL RBs who were drafted in the 4th round or later and who made big impacts almost immediately in their careers).The only way we'll know for sure is to see it play out. Look at CuMar - the guy is just a machine - he keeps churning out these huge touch seasons. I expected him to run out of steam about 2 seasons ago & have avoided him religiously in drafts for just this reason (and he had Lamont Jordan as his backup - I don't know what that says about Jordan) - much to my regret last season.Good debate on both sides, though.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

This may well be the plan going in, but what I am saying is that Jacobs still has a lot to prove on this level before he will warrant this kind of workload.  It may happen, it may not, but I am more comfortable projecting Tiki to get 330 touches and most of the goal line work than I am projecting Jacobs to get 120 touches and most of the goal line work.

That's why we're here debating, isn't it? Both sides have some very valid points (of which Jacobs draft position is amongst the least relevant, IMO. I could post a pretty good list of NFL RBs who were drafted in the 4th round or later).The only way we'll know for sure is to see it play out. Look at CuMar - the guy is just a machine - he keeps churning out these huge touch seasons. I expected him to run out of steam about 2 seasons ago & have avoided him religiously in drafts for just this reason (and he had Lamont Jordan as his backup - I don't know what that says about Jordan) - much to my regret last season.

Good debate on both sides, though.

Agreed - and I am glad you chimed in on the other side here because I respect your opinion very highly, even among Shark Pool posters, I think you're one of the best.I don't think draft position is important either, I mentioned it only because it MAY indicate that Jacobs is more of a project than a guy expected to light it up from day one, that's all.

I don't think Tiki will break down, though. Yeah, he's 30, but he is not injury prone at all, and in an interview I heard with Ronde the other day, he mentioned how Tiki had been working out like an animal this offseason, and showed a new level of dedication. The hosts at Giants camp on Sirius were discussing how Tiki looked bigger and in better shape than they had ever seen him, and that he seems primed to do great things this year, as he apparently added beef without sacrificing a hair of speed or quickness. Thus, I don't think injuries will factor into it.

Where I see a possible drop off in production is if Jacobs becomes the vulture you illustrate with your projections. I am not naive enough to say it can't happen - sure it can. My whole point has been that I am not going to downgrade Tiki's numbers based on potential - I get burned postulating like that. I prefer to stick with the proven commodity until I see differently. Others take an opposite route, and that's what makes fantasy football great. Time will tell how it plays out, but in any event, even garnering 1300-1400 combined yards and about 8 TDs would be OK with me for an RB2, especially with Priest/LJ in the fold as my RB1.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

There is no question Jacobs, at this point having not played one pro down, is all hype.

There is also no question that he has the physical tools and hardnosed style to succeed in the NFL. But he will require an amount of NFL experience before he understands -- and exploits -- the game at that level.

And let's also not forget that he is playing behind one of the most efficient and consistent backs in the league, a guy who has been entrenched as the cornerstone of the Giant's offence for years.

But hey, Jacobs is playing in New York, the town that turned a preseason stiff-arm and DB steamroll by Shockey into one of the most celebrated preseason moments of all time. I swear, people here know where they were when that happened, just like the moon landing or something.

Let's settle with the more realistic expectations -- like that he will act as the team's #2; see the stripe situationally, if only to save Tiki from the hard yardage; and be in on short yardage power sets.

But to those who are scoffing at the huge stats people are predicting -- I don't deny your skepticism, but I don't think you can deny that there is still cause for at least some wild enthusiasm over Jacobs. The hype for Shockey, IMHO, went on to be completely justified. So it's exciting to think of the possibilities Jacobs brings to the table.

Maybe it's me. I like the big backs -- guys like Okoye and Dickerson and even Eddie George in his prime. Guys who not only hit holes quick and ran right downhill from there, but guys who also had a few jukes to get into the backfield, where it was near impossible to bring them down. Even as a Raider fan, it was hard not to admire a guy nicknamed the Nigerian Nightmare.

At 6'4, 256, Jacobs's combination of punishing power and size is very intriguing.

There was a lot of talk about him bowling over DEs during training camp. But in the preseason games I've seen, he's been successful exploding through piles, as well as breaking out to the outside with some finesse...and showing decent gears doing it.

I think there is no doubt Jacobs will see goal line duty -- possibly a lot if he shows he can be successful there. But I think there is no doubt that the impact to Tiki's value, though distinct, is limited.

If Jacobs proves himself in the first half of the season, I think it's feasible that we may just see a Thunder and Lightning distribution -- but mostly late in games when the D is blowing and ball control is key.

The Giants are traditionally a run-first team, and Eli's injury puts the onus even more upon the rushing game. Coming off the bench with a fresh set of legs in the second half, Jacobs could put up some great performances as tired D's adjust from Tiki's versatility to the rookie's in-your-grill power.

By the way, this is a The only hindrance I see to Jacobs' success as a goal-line back is that he apparently (I haven't seen him play, this is just what I have read) runs very upright yet, and despite his size and speed, doesn't have a ton of "shiftiness." So, while he can potentially bowl over some people on his way to pay dirt, he's not going to be the kind of back who can keep his feet moving, wait for a crack, and slip through. No less an authority on goal line rushing than Jerome Bettis has said his size is great for moving the pile, but the key to scoring at the stripe is to be able to make quick reads of the defense, find the hole in an instant, and cut through. Jacobs may be great at this someday, but with his limited playing experience, I am not sold on his ability to do this at Tiki's level just yet. If he proves ineffective in such situations, Coughlin will have no choice but to go back to Tiki. I think that's just as likely as Jacobs getting all the GL work. Just one man's opinion.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

I really admire everyone's dedication to his particular stance in this thread. Much well thought out back-and-forth in here. Good show!

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I really admire everyone's dedication to his particular stance in this thread.  Much well thought out back-and-forth in here.  Good show!

Agreed. Some great posts by Pony Boy, Tremendous Upside, HK, TD Ryan, and Stompin' Tom on this page alone that make the thread worth reading.From quality posters come quality posts - it's really that simple.

 

[Buckychudd]

The last season he averaged less than 100 combined yd/g........1999. The guy is a virtual lock for 1600 combined yards and may very well end up near 2000, how many other RBs can you say that about? Throw in 8-10 TDs and you have some solid output on the low end.If he's your #2 RB, you're in for a solid season.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

To me the entire issue comes down not to Barber's ability, but to the Coughlin's willingness to burn up his one currently effective asset. I Believe Coughlin to be a hard head who learns very slowly. That said I think he has learned that runningbacks can only take so much work before breaking down. Though Jacobs may not be the monster some are predicting, he will be at least serviceable to give Barber a break from time to time, including more often than the immediate past. I have little doubt Barber's workload will be decreased, and with Jacobs as an option, and with Shockey looking a little more healthy, there are now other goal line options. Still, no way you could pass up his value where he fell. If you had you might very well have been handing the championship to the next guy.

 

[NYG Endzone]

Tiki is signed through 2007 (for a nice chunk of change). Coughlin has an easy choice, and I'm sure Accorsi agrees.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I don't know that that is necessarily true. I have seen it said a number of times in this thread that "Coughlin loves to have a separate goal line back" but the numbers don't really bear that out. To wit :1995 JAX : James Stewart and Vaughn Dunbar had 2 TDs each. RBBC.1996 JAX : Stewart 190-723-8 Natrone Means 152-507-2. Lead back was GL back.1997 JAX : Means 244-823-9 Stewart 136-555-8. RBBC1998 JAX : Taylor 264-1223-14. Stewart 53-217-2. Crockett 0-0-0. Lead back was GL back.1999 JAX : Taylor 159-732-6 (injury) Stewart 249-931-13. Injury necessitated RBBC2000 JAX : Taylor 292-1399-12 Mack 54-145-1. Lead back was GL back.2001 JAX - Taylor 30-116-0 (injury.) Mack 213-877-9. Lead back was GL back.2002 JAX : Taylor : 287-1314-8 Mack 98-436-9. Separate GL back.2004 NYG : Barber : 322-1518-13 Dayne : 52-179-1. Lead back was GL back.So, in 9 seasons under Coughlin, his teams have had a separate goal line back once, an RBBC situation 3 times, and the lead back worked the GL 5 times. The only time he used a GL back was in a season when Taylor was coming off 2 season-ending injuries in three years. I don't really see this as evidence that Coughlin loves to have a designated hammer at the goal line.

 

[NYG Endzone]

8/22 RB Barber Believes RB Jacobs Will Extend His Career

 

[H.K.]

I don't know that that is necessarily true. I have seen it said a number of times in this thread that "Coughlin loves to have a separate goal line back" but the numbers don't really bear that out. To wit :

1995 JAX : James Stewart and Vaughn Dunbar had 2 TDs each. RBBC.

1996 JAX : Stewart 190-723-8 Natrone Means 152-507-2. Lead back was GL back.

1997 JAX : Means 244-823-9 Stewart 136-555-8. RBBC

1998 JAX : Taylor 264-1223-14. Stewart 53-217-2. Crockett 0-0-0. Lead back was GL back.

1999 JAX : Taylor 159-732-6 (injury) Stewart 249-931-13. Injury necessitated RBBC

2000 JAX : Taylor 292-1399-12 Mack 54-145-1. Lead back was GL back.

2001 JAX - Taylor 30-116-0 (injury.) Mack 213-877-9. Lead back was GL back.

2002 JAX : Taylor : 287-1314-8 Mack 98-436-9. Separate GL back.

2004 NYG : Barber : 322-1518-13 Dayne : 52-179-1. Lead back was GL back.

So, in 9 seasons under Coughlin, his teams have had a separate goal line back once, an RBBC situation 3 times, and the lead back worked the GL 5 times. The only time he used a GL back was in a season when Taylor was coming off 2 season-ending injuries in three years. I don't really see this as evidence that Coughlin loves to have a designated hammer at the goal line.

True, however, as I stated earlier, Dayne was supposed to be the GL back last year and he messed it up. Now TC brings in Jacobs specifically for the role. But the true key is to dig even deeper and look at who the Giants have brought to camp besides Jacobs:1) Ward 5-11 233 lbs - The guy is a bruiser, excellent GL material if Jacobs fails. I believe he is going to stick as a special teams player.

2) Grant 6-1 218 lbs - One of seven Notre Dame RB's to go over 1,000 yards

3) Jemison 6-1 225 lbs - another big RB

Also, Mike Cloud (an RB Coughlin recruited and landed at BC) is in the mix, as well. FYI - last year Cloud scored 3 rushing TD's on only 21 carries, not too shabby.

Coughlin has stated publicly that he wants to reduce Tiki's workload. He points to situational areas like short yardage and goal line as ways to give Barber a breather. Everything he has said or done this off-season has backed up his words. I expect Cloud to get a series or two from time to time and anticiapte at least double the amount of carries for him this season. Jacobs will obviously garner additional carries, too.

Personally, I am a huge fan of Barber. I like him as a player and a person, but these tea leaves are way too easy to read. IMHO Barber is over-rated as a Top Ten RB, but still represents value if you can get him around the turn of rounds two and three.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Coughlin has stated publicly that he wants to reduce Tiki's workload. He points to situational areas like short yardage and goal line as ways to give Barber a breather. Everything he has said or done this off-season has backed up his words.

This is good news for Barber owners. He started out on fire last year but really wore down as the year went on.Fantasy football is a game of differentials. Tiki's differentials compared to the competition were disproportionally higher through approximately the first half of the year last year. In the second half, he came back to earth and probably performed below what even he was capable of - just when it mattered most.

I had the highest scoring team BY FAR in the FFA League last year, with Barber a big reason why. It became painfully obvious that he was declining and it really cost me in terms of playoff seeding.

Reducing Tiki's workload increases the likelihood that he has higher numbers later in the season (when you want them most) rather than having ridiculous numbers at the beginning and pedestrian ones at the end.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Coughlin has stated publicly that he wants to reduce Tiki's workload. He points to situational areas like short yardage and goal line as ways to give Barber a breather. Everything he has said or done this off-season has backed up his words.

This is good news for Barber owners. He started out on fire last year but really wore down as the year went on.Fantasy football is a game of differentials. Tiki's differentials compared to the competition were disproportionally higher through approximately the first half of the year last year. In the second half, he came back to earth and probably performed below what even he was capable of - just when it mattered most.

I had the highest scoring team BY FAR in the FFA League last year, with Barber a big reason why. It became painfully obvious that he was declining and it really cost me in terms of playoff seeding.

Reducing Tiki's workload increases the likelihood that he has higher numbers later in the season (when you want them most) rather than having ridiculous numbers at the beginning and pedestrian ones at the end.

This is a good point.I think at worst we see numbers like 2002 - maybe Cloud/Jacobs get up to 9 TDs, but I still see Barber getting 250-300 carries and his share of TDs. I don't see a projection of 1500-1600 combined yards and 8-10 TDs as being unreasonable at all, but there are some projecting as few as 2-3 TDs, and I don't see evidence to support that stance, only conjecture.

 

[Buckychudd]

I think at worst we see numbers like 2002 - maybe Cloud/Jacobs get up to 9 TDs, but I still see Barber getting 250-300 carries and his share of TDs. I don't see a projection of 1500-1600 combined yards and 8-10 TDs as being unreasonable at all, but there are some projecting as few as 2-3 TDs, and I don't see evidence to support that stance, only conjecture.

I think that's too conservative.....I have a hard time with any projection under 1600. Really I think it will be in the 1800 yd range.TDs are tougher given the paltry number he had in 2003. But I would feel ok about 8-10.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

but there are some projecting as few as 2-3 TDs,

That's absurd. How many of Barber's TDs were scored from inside the 10 (the area where Jacobs, et al will be used) last year? I don't know, but I'd wager it wasn't 13 - the number someone would have had to vulture last year to reduce Tiki's 15 tds to 2.

The impact of a "goal line back" is minimal for an elite guy like Tiki. It's more profound for someone average like Michael Bennett vis a vis Moe Williams.

But I'm content to have others downplay him to the point where he's the #2 back on my squad. That doesn't bother me a bit. .

 

[H.K.]

This is good news for Barber owners. He started out on fire last year but really wore down as the year went on.

Fantasy football is a game of differentials. Tiki's differentials compared to the competition were disproportionally higher through approximately the first half of the year last year. In the second half, he came back to earth and probably performed below what even he was capable of - just when it mattered most.

Worn down? Um, no. The true halt to Tiki's performance was a result of something known as "The Eli Manning Effect". Look at how he performed before and after Eli took over:

BEFORE ELI

9 Games

184 Carries

928 Rushing Yards

5.04 YPC

36 Receptions

463 Rec. Yards

10 TD's

1 Fumble Lost

207 FF Points for 23 FF points per Game AVG

AFTER ELI

7 Games

138 Carries

590 Rushing Yards

4.27 YPC

16 Receptions Death to owners in PPR leagues

115 Rec. Yards

5 TD's

4 Fumbles Lost D's keying on Barber due to Eli's inability to lead the offense hurt in other ways, too.

107 FF Points for 15 FF points per Game AVG

Competition was tougher in the second half of the season, but that does not tell the whole story. Eli did not move the offense as well, so Tiki got fewer touches, also, Eli has no idea how to utilize Barber as a safety valve, so his receiving numbers plummeted.

Unless the Giants trade to get Warner back to lead this team, I think everyone would be wise to lower their expectations this season with Eli at QB.

 

[H.K.]

but there are some projecting as few as 2-3 TDs,

That's absurd. How many of Barber's TDs were scored from inside the 10 (the area where Jacobs, et al will be used) last year? I don't know, but I'd wager it wasn't 13 - the number someone would have had to vulture last year to reduce Tiki's 15 tds to 2.

11 of 15 TD's inside the 5 (includes 3 yard reception)12 of 15 inside the 10 (includes 8 yard run)

He added TD rushes of 52 & 72 for two more scores and a TD reception of 62 yards.

Is it still absurd? Or do you forsee him breaking off a lot more 50 yarders for scores because he'll be fresh as a result of not having to bang it in from the two yard line?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Worn down? Um, no. The true halt to Tiki's performance was a result of something known as "The Eli Manning Effect". Look at how he performed before and after Eli took over:

BEFORE ELI

9 Games

184 Carries

928 Rushing Yards

5.04 YPC

1 Fumble Lost

AFTER ELI

7 Games

138 Carries

590 Rushing Yards

4.27 YPC

4 Fumbles Lost D's keying on Barber due to Eli's inability to lead the offense hurt in other ways, too.

Eli did not move the offense as well, so Tiki got fewer touches, also, Eli has no idea how to utilize Barber as a safety valve, so his receiving numbers plummeted.

184/9 = 20.4 carries/game138/7 = 19.7 carries/game

There was no precipitous dropoff in number of carries. Losing fumbles is not a function of a bad QB, but of a tired RB. Reduced YPC is probably a combination of both.

But you do make good points in regards to receptions. I guess I was trying to dispell the "goal line vulture" thing more than anything else. Would Barber be better with a more qualified QB? Most likely. But I don't think that Kurt Warner was striking fear in too many defenses last year either.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

This is good news for Barber owners.  He started out on fire last year but really wore down as the year went on.

Fantasy football is a game of differentials.  Tiki's differentials compared to the competition were disproportionally higher through approximately the first half of the year last year.  In the second half, he came back to earth and probably performed below what even he was capable of - just when it mattered most.

Worn down? Um, no. The true halt to Tiki's performance was a result of something known as "The Eli Manning Effect". Look at how he performed before and after Eli took over:

BEFORE ELI

9 Games

184 Carries

928 Rushing Yards

5.04 YPC

36 Receptions

463 Rec. Yards

10 TD's

1 Fumble Lost

207 FF Points for 23 FF points per Game AVG

AFTER ELI

7 Games

138 Carries

590 Rushing Yards

4.27 YPC

16 Receptions Death to owners in PPR leagues

115 Rec. Yards

5 TD's

4 Fumbles Lost D's keying on Barber due to Eli's inability to lead the offense hurt in other ways, too.

107 FF Points for 15 FF points per Game AVG

Competition was tougher in the second half of the season, but that does not tell the whole story. Eli did not move the offense as well, so Tiki got fewer touches, also, Eli has no idea how to utilize Barber as a safety valve, so his receiving numbers plummeted.

Unless the Giants trade to get Warner back to lead this team, I think everyone would be wise to lower their expectations this season with Eli at QB.

This was mentioned earlier. I think it was a combination of facing tougher defenses and the fact that teams were stacking the run much harder with Eli under center, daring the rookie to beat them through the air. Eli did not lay well, and no team was foolish enough to sell out against the pass and let Tiki kill them. They wisely focused on Barber.This year, I don't think we'll see that as much. With Burress to stretch the field, and Manning with another camp under his belt, I think the passing game has nowhere to go but up. With more respect for the passing game comes more room for Barber to run. I don't think he'll breach the lofty heights he was in during the first nine games, but should fare better than he did in the last 7.

Besides which, projecting his numbers WITH Eli over a 16 game season gives you over 1,600 combined yards and 11-12 TDs, which is actually even better than what I have projected, so I would discount the "Eli Effect" as a valid reason why Barber will have a lousy year.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

but there are some projecting as few as 2-3 TDs,

That's absurd. How many of Barber's TDs were scored from inside the 10 (the area where Jacobs, et al will be used) last year? I don't know, but I'd wager it wasn't 13 - the number someone would have had to vulture last year to reduce Tiki's 15 tds to 2.

11 of 15 TD's inside the 5 (includes 3 yard reception)12 of 15 inside the 10 (includes 8 yard run)

He added TD rushes of 52 & 72 for two more scores and a TD reception of 62 yards.

Is it still absurd? Or do you forsee him breaking off a lot more 50 yarders for scores because he'll be fresh as a result of not having to bang it in from the two yard line?

In other words, your projections are assuming he will not see a carry inside the 10 all season long.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

but there are some projecting as few as 2-3 TDs,

That's absurd. How many of Barber's TDs were scored from inside the 10 (the area where Jacobs, et al will be used) last year? I don't know, but I'd wager it wasn't 13 - the number someone would have had to vulture last year to reduce Tiki's 15 tds to 2.

11 of 15 TD's inside the 5 (includes 3 yard reception)12 of 15 inside the 10 (includes 8 yard run)

He added TD rushes of 52 & 72 for two more scores and a TD reception of 62 yards.

Is it still absurd? Or do you forsee him breaking off a lot more 50 yarders for scores because he'll be fresh as a result of not having to bang it in from the two yard line?

You are the stat king and I stand corrected. Maybe I'm not cut out for this Shark Pool stuff. Too bad the FFA has gotten so boring.Still, I don't think you can automatically cede all those TDs to someone other than Barber. When it's 1st and goal from the 8, are the Giants going to put in Barber or Jacobs? Barber all day long. At the stripe? At least we don't need to see Barber getting roughed up trying to get that first down at 3rd and 1 at midfield this year.

 

[H.K.]

but there are some projecting as few as 2-3 TDs,

That's absurd. How many of Barber's TDs were scored from inside the 10 (the area where Jacobs, et al will be used) last year? I don't know, but I'd wager it wasn't 13 - the number someone would have had to vulture last year to reduce Tiki's 15 tds to 2.

11 of 15 TD's inside the 5 (includes 3 yard reception)12 of 15 inside the 10 (includes 8 yard run)

He added TD rushes of 52 & 72 for two more scores and a TD reception of 62 yards.

Is it still absurd? Or do you forsee him breaking off a lot more 50 yarders for scores because he'll be fresh as a result of not having to bang it in from the two yard line?

In other words, your projections are assuming he will not see a carry inside the 10 all season long.

He had 15 carries inside the 5 last year and converted 10 of them. The expectation for similar opportunity and results would be pretty unrealistic at this point. If he gets five or six carries and converts a couple of them, I think is possible. I think he'll add a TD in the air, too. But I don't see the repeat of 50+ yard TD's.

I think there is upside for as many as 6 TD's but I am not counting on it.

In summary: Tiki Barber 2005 will be similar to Fred Taylor 2004. A QB undergoing a learning curve and a TD vulture RB will equate to average RB2 numbers.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

This is good news for Barber owners.  He started out on fire last year but really wore down as the year went on.

Fantasy football is a game of differentials.  Tiki's differentials compared to the competition were disproportionally higher through approximately the first half of the year last year.  In the second half, he came back to earth and probably performed below what even he was capable of - just when it mattered most.

Worn down? Um, no. The true halt to Tiki's performance was a result of something known as "The Eli Manning Effect". Look at how he performed before and after Eli took over:

BEFORE ELI

9 Games

184 Carries

928 Rushing Yards

5.04 YPC

36 Receptions

463 Rec. Yards

10 TD's

1 Fumble Lost

207 FF Points for 23 FF points per Game AVG

AFTER ELI

7 Games

138 Carries

590 Rushing Yards

4.27 YPC

16 Receptions Death to owners in PPR leagues

115 Rec. Yards

5 TD's

4 Fumbles Lost D's keying on Barber due to Eli's inability to lead the offense hurt in other ways, too.

107 FF Points for 15 FF points per Game AVG

Competition was tougher in the second half of the season, but that does not tell the whole story. Eli did not move the offense as well, so Tiki got fewer touches, also, Eli has no idea how to utilize Barber as a safety valve, so his receiving numbers plummeted.

Unless the Giants trade to get Warner back to lead this team, I think everyone would be wise to lower their expectations this season with Eli at QB.

By the same token, competition cannot be downplayed either. Especially in regards to averages.Barber faced Washington and Baltimore, the 2nd and 8th toughest run defenses in the league, in back to back weeks 13 & 14. His YPC, accordingly, was only 2.5 and 2.9, dragging down the average for the "Eli Era" considerably.

However, starting with the Atlanta game (when Eli took over), his YPC excluding the Wash/Balt games were 5.1, 5.8, 4.2, 5.0, and 4.0. His catches were also 3, 1, 5, 2, and 3 for those same games - just as sporadic as when Warner was QB.

Stats link.

 

[NYG Endzone]

He played pretty decent defense in there too called Pitt

 

[Andy Dufresne]

He played pretty decent defense in there too called Pitt

Thanks for that. They were the #1 ranked run defense and Barber did pretty well that week. I just looked at the weeks where Barber took a stat hit.Wow. In a three week period, the Giants played against the #1, #2, and #8 ranked running defenses. Yikes, no wonder they tanked.

Did Eli even have a chance at success last year?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

He played pretty decent defense in there too called Pitt

Thanks for that. They were the #1 ranked run defense and Barber did pretty well that week. I just looked at the weeks where Barber took a stat hit.Wow. In a three week period, the Giants played against the #1, #2, and #8 ranked running defenses. Yikes, no wonder they tanked.

Did Eli even have a chance at success last year?

Not a very good one. That's why I believe the passing game, and as such, the Giants offense will be much better this year. I think the Giants could easily have as many as 16-17 rushing TDs again, if not more - if they do, Jacobs would have to vulture a hell of a lot in order to keep Tiki at 3 TDs for the season. You've got to basically be projecting Jacobs to have upwards of 10-12 TDs....

 

[NYG Endzone]

Evil :thumbsup:Tiki 6-9 TDs this year. Move along

 

[buck naked]

The Giants play the NFC West and the AFC West this year. Many of the 8 games there are nice, cupcake defenses.Take a look at what C. Martin, W. McGahee and C. Dillon did in their 4 games crossing over against the NFC West last year. The results are astounding. For example, McGahee had over 400 yards and 8 tds against the NFC West.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Evil :thumbsup:

Tiki 6-9 TDs this year. Move along

9 would be fine. I think 6 might be a bit low.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Evil :thumbsup:

Tiki 6-9 TDs this year. Move along

And since this is my thread, I will move along whenever I damn well please.

 

[NYG Endzone]

The Giants play the NFC West and the AFC West this year. Many of the 8 games there are nice, cupcake defenses.

Take a look at what C. Martin, W. McGahee and C. Dillon did in their 4 games crossing over against the NFC West last year. The results are astounding. For example, McGahee had over 400 yards and 8 tds against the NFC West.

I like your thinking but the Giants have an "average" rush SOS this year. With 3 "easy" and 4 "tough games".

edit to add: Mite as well subtract an easy game because its weeks 17

 

[NYG Endzone]

Evil :thumbsup:

Tiki 6-9 TDs this year. Move along

And since this is my thread, I will move along whenever I damn well please.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Evil :thumbsup:

Tiki 6-9 TDs this year. Move along

And since this is my thread, I will move along whenever I damn well please.

WTF is that smiley?

 

[P Boy]

The Giants play the NFC West and the AFC West this year. Many of the 8 games there are nice, cupcake defenses.Take a look at what C. Martin, W. McGahee and C. Dillon did in their 4 games crossing over against the NFC West last year. The results are astounding. For example, McGahee had over 400 yards and 8 tds against the NFC West.

And everyone knows that Ds are static, being exactly the same year after year.

 

[buck naked]

The Giants play the NFC West and the AFC West this year. Many of the 8 games there are nice, cupcake defenses.

Take a  look at what C. Martin, W. McGahee and C. Dillon did in their 4 games crossing over against the NFC West last year. The results are astounding. For example, McGahee had over 400 yards and 8 tds against the NFC West.

And everyone knows that Ds are static, being exactly the same year after year.

IMHO..........Will SF be better defensively? No

St. Louis? No

Arizona? Maybe

Seattle? Maybe

Oakland? No

Denver? With the Cleveland defensive line, doubtful.

San Diego? Not sure

Kansas City? Could they be worse? Probably better.

We look for trends in this hobby, do we not? I'll take my chances.

 

[jurb26]

Let me start by saying the orginator of this thread got VERY GOOD value out of Barber where he drafted him. I happen to be in the camp that does not see Barber as a very good value play in most leagues though. My projections would place him as the 15-20th RB on the board, which in reality, if he stays healthy gives him a finish in the top 15 (12-15 IMO) as some backs (we just don't know who) are certain to get injured and underperform. So my projections are in reality, within a vacuum.I don't like Barber this year for the reasons that have been brought up on several occasions in this thread already through some very good posts. I posted my more detailed thoughts in the spotlight thread earlier though so I won't bother with them now.Really I just wanted to come in and post that Barber went as the #7 overall player in my local league on this past Sunday, RB5 (after LT, SA, Holmes, Manning, Cpep, Willis, then Barber). Personally, I think this is way too high. Barber has managed a top 5 RB position only one time throughout an 8 year career. His TDs are a roll of the dice year in and year out. Unfortunatly, I think what I saw this past weekend in my draft is far more consistent with what the originator of this thread saw. Hence, Barber = overrated this year. Top 15, near lock if healthy. Top 10, good chance but not great. Top 5, very small chance IMO.

 

[jurb26]

WTF is that smiley?

 

[H.K.]

UPDATE:In a cruel twist of ironic fate, I found myself sitting at 3.02 in a ten team redraft Wednesday evening and who is staring me right in the eye? Yep, it was him.....Its a start two QB league so Peyton, C-Pep & McNabb were off the board, and Moss was the lone WR gone. That means 17 RB were taken already and now my choice is between Barber and SJax!Of course I already have Tiki in my other money league, so I was certain I would not have him on two teams. However, the last thing I ever expected was for him to be available this late....so here is exactly what I did (in chronological order of course): :X So H.K. says in a Peter Brady puberty driven voice changing mumble: "Gimme Tiki" Now its a steady diet of and prayer that mighty-mite can stay healthy.You all have been formally warned that my ultra-negative mojo jinx on Barber is now doubled in power, so its best for all concerned to avoid this guy at all costs. There is no chance he has a good year now that I need him to perform for two squads. My sincerest of apologies to those that have already selected who I will now refer to as "the albatross".

 

[jurb26]

UPDATE:

In a cruel twist of ironic fate, I found myself sitting at 3.02 in a ten team redraft Wednesday evening and who is staring me right in the eye?

Yep, it was him.....

Its a start two QB league so Peyton, C-Pep & McNabb were off the board, and Moss was the lone WR gone. That means 17 RB were taken already and now my choice is between Barber and SJax!

Of course I already have Tiki in my other money league, so I was certain I would not have him on two teams. However, the last thing I ever expected was for him to be available this late....so here is exactly what I did (in chronological order of course):







:X











So H.K. says in a Peter Brady puberty driven voice changing mumble: "Gimme Tiki"





Now its a steady diet of and prayer that mighty-mite can stay healthy.

You all have been formally warned that my ultra-negative mojo jinx on Barber is now doubled in power, so its best for all concerned to avoid this guy at all costs.

There is no chance he has a good year now that I need him to perform for two squads.

My sincerest of apologies to those that have already selected who I will now refer to as "the albatross".

 

[Snotbubbles]

Now its a steady diet of beer.gif and prayer that mighty-mite can stay healthy.

Tiki has played in 122 out of 128 possible games. Why would you worry he can't stay healthy?

Hence, Barber = overrated this year. Top 15, near lock if healthy. Top 10, good chance but not great. Top 5, very small chance IMO.

5 of the last 5 he's been top 15.2 of the last 3 he's been top 10.If you can name 9 backs that you like to finish ahead of Tiki, I'd like to see them.

 

[Gopher State]

I find it interesting that everyone is so worried about Jacobs stealing carries, I took Barber in the second round of my draft(12 team performance) because I felt the following RB's who were available would lose as much/more carries to their back ups then Barber, or have bigger issues, they are:Jackson STL --Faulk looks goodRudi Johnson --Perry finally healthy and a #1 who will not spend all his time on the bench.L. Jordan (deep koolaid on this guy) Crocket and moss will get the goal line td's here. A. Green, injury/fumble/DavenportWestbrook, real close in value to Barber, but I think the Eagles bring in a big back for the goal line, i.e. Levens, etc.I agree Barber is not #1 material, but he as good, if not better then most of the above RB's who are going in the second round. I have not seen him (Barber) go any later then early second round in my five drafts, but if Jacobs is going to get 7 td's I guess I better go out and get him PDQ

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Week 2 update : Tiki took me to victory last night with 2 TDs - 3 on the season thus far through 2 games, matching the total some prognosticated he'd have all year long. Suddenly the trade offers are flying in. Looks like Barber is going to get his share, even with Jacobs siphoning the GL carries. It seems they only bring Jacobs in when they get down to about the 2 yard line (plus, his "TD" last night wouldn't have held up if Haslett had challenged it) - so Tiki is still going to get his. Thrilled with his selection in round 2 thus far - I'm now 2-0 on the year and leading my league in total points.

 

[bakes]

Week 2 update : Tiki took me to victory last night with 2 TDs - 3 on the season thus far through 2 games, matching the total some prognosticated he'd have all year long. Suddenly the trade offers are flying in. Looks like Barber is going to get his share, even with Jacobs siphoning the GL carries. It seems they only bring Jacobs in when they get down to about the 2 yard line (plus, his "TD" last night wouldn't have held up if Haslett had challenged it) - so Tiki is still going to get his. Thrilled with his selection in round 2 thus far - I'm now 2-0 on the year and leading my league in total points.

Not leading in total points, but I did scratch out high week this week courtesy of Tiki. I don't care if he has the same bye as my RB1 (Priest, 1.07) - when he was sitting there at 4.04 there was no way I was passing on him. Now if Coughlin would just remember that Tiki CAN catch the ball out of the backfield (1 PPR league)...

 

[H.K.]

Two games, three receptions :X

 

[jafo]

Two games, three receptions :X

Tiki has 3 TDs so far. I like what I'm seeing, and I expected to see what he's doing. Where are all the Tiki bashers now. Last year it was, let's wait until week 5 and see how he ranks, blah, blah, blah.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Two games, three receptions :X

Matters not to me - I don't play in a PPR league. He's ranked #2 in my format right now, and I just got offered Marvin Harrison for him. Debating this one.

 

[hwjchim]

I dogged Tiki at draft.I had him last year and he was great but once Manning was in there, Tiki killed me pretty much. So this year at draft time, I was like, no way I"m taking Tiki with Eli back there.I don't trust Eli yet...dooooh!!! I should've

 

[Gatorman]

Truth be told, TIki ain't gonna score 20 TDs this year and his lack of receptions is troubling. Eli seems to look downfield more than underneath so I think that Tiki's carrying your team numbers will decline.I have tiki in 2 leagues and while I will ride him all the way, his lack of catches does have me worried

 

[Colin Dowling]

Truth be told, TIki ain't gonna score 20 TDs this year and his lack of receptions is troubling. Eli seems to look downfield more than underneath so I think that Tiki's carrying your team numbers will decline.

I have tiki in 2 leagues and while I will ride him all the way, his lack of catches does have me worried

Tiki is still not getting the 'spect he deserves. His catches have dropped, which is troubling, but the Oline is doing a fine job getting him opportunities and Coughlin appears more than comfortable running the ball in the redzone. Even with Jacobs around, Tiki looks like a 1200 rushing yards/12 season is well within reach. Considering where most people were able to draft him, that's not bad at all.COlin

 

[Jabroniking]

I don't think it's so much of Eli looking downfield as it is the plays that are being called for Eli to run. With Coughlin being a control freak, I highly doubt he gives his 2nd year QB the freedom to call audibles at the line yet until Eli gains his trust.I think the Giants are trying to build Eli's confidence to be able to throw down field this year and allow himself to establish a rhythm in the offense...something he had trouble doing last year up until the last part of the season.So far Eli has looked good and he seems to have more confidence this year than last. That being said, as Eli's confidence in his ability to throw the ball down field grows...I think we'll see the Giants open up their offense a little more and insert a screen package for Tiki or allow Eli to call an audible at the line and check down after making a read of the defense at the line.