LHUCKS 4th Annual FBG Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

[Mungo Burrows]

Last year I had Culpepper ranked lower than most at #5…that ranking was just low enough to ensure that he would not be on any of my fantasy teams and I in turn didn’t end up with a bust of a pick in the early rounds.  The same principle can be applied to this situation.

When people say they were right because someone got injured I start to question what the point is. Predicting injuries is nothing more than a guessing game. I'm not sure if your saying you felt he would get injured or not but you seem to be suggesting that was the reason for your ranking of him last year. I don't really follow that. If you thought he was going to be injured then why rank him as your 5? It seem contradictory to say that now after ranking him at 5.

Actually his play was far worse than the injury. Once he was injured people could finally cut bait on the guy, but by then the season was probably already shot. I think he's saying that he had just enough doubts about his risk factors to rank him down at 5, but in reality the worst case scenario came true and he was far worse. The possiblity of downside was just enough to make Pepper undraftable by LHUCKS, saving him much pain.

 

[bostonfred]

How many QBs can you rank above Hasselbeck, that you feel rock solid about their production heading into 2006?  A guy that when you hear his name, you can just rattle off what his expected production should be without having to think hard about coaching/personnel changes.

I'll spot you Peyton Manning.  When you hear his name, you think 4,000+ yards and 28+ TDs in the bank.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

elipeyton

brady

mcnabb

plummer

and a couple other potential break out QBs who are more risk/reward but can get at a much lower draft price to compensate you for it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There's another guy I'd put on the list before most of the guys bagger mentioned. I seem to be a lot higher on him than anyone else is this year. But he's coming off his third straight 4,000 yard season. His team leads the NFL in total yards over the last five years (since this QB became the starter) and is second in points over that period. He leads the entire NFL in total passing yards over the past three seasons -- Manning is second.He's not getting a lot of love, but I think he's a pretty low risk.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Doesn't he have a conservative new coach though?Edit to add: I hadn't realized so many people had replied already. That's what I get for posting while playing cards.

 

[LHUCKS]

When people say they were right because someone got injured I start to question what the point is. Predicting injuries is nothing more than a guessing game. I'm not sure if your saying you felt he would get injured or not but you seem to be suggesting that was the reason for your ranking of him last year. I don't really follow that. If you thought he was going to be injured then why rank him as your 5? It seem contradictory to say that now after ranking him at 5.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He was on pace for 15 TDs for the entire year. I think most people would agree that had Culpepper finished this year he was going to disappoint as the #2-#4 ranked QB.

Hasselback at 2 is too high. I can agree with someone putting him at 5 based on performance and low risk factor but not 2. There is nothing to support a #2 ranking. Nothing in the past nor anything in the future supports placing him here.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Did you not read my one page analysis??You're not impressed buy his QB rating last year or by his previous year's yardage totals?(both of which hilighted in my analysis) Holmgren said that last year was the first year where Hasselbeck truly understood the offense and that it takes 3-4 years to grasp his complex offense. Hasselbeck was considered lights out by almost every single expert analyst.

It's interesting how you use "past performance" to support Brady's abberation and then do an about face on Hasselbeck and ignore past performance to support a theory of increased performance.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Fantasty football is not an equation. In certain cases you use "past performance" and in other cases it may be wise not to...I gave reasoning for how it was applicable to both Brady and Hasselbeck.

I can understand a bump but not all the way to #2. Now if the low risk factor is making the difference then I'd be concerned about weighing risk to heavily.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm often criticized by individuals for weighing risk too heavily, and then I beat those individuals head to head.

I can undeestand a lower ranking but at 11? Serious?. Still that talent and that offense is too good to leave much lower than 6-8.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Linehans offense finished 16th in passing yardage last year.

Bledsoe is listed by you as underrated. In fact he appears to be overrated IMO. So he came off a top 6 scoring last year and now he has TO. So you think he's going to do better? Message to world, Parcells is the coach and he likes to run 1st and pass conservatively. I doubt PArcells will change too much from what he's done in the past. I couls be wrong on that part and if he does then all bets are off.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, like I said in the analysis despite Parcells' conservative philosophy of the past Bledsoe still finished 6th. The one factor that could limit Bledsoe's numbers are the Dallas defense as I mentioned in my analysis you could see a "Seattle Effect" where a vastly improved defense hampers the second half passing numbers.

Parcells has publically said (paraphrasing) "TO will not catch 100 balls in this offense. That's not what we do".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Glenn didn't catch 100 balls last year but Bledsoe still finished 6th.

Looking back, Parcels has had 4 years out of 18 whereby his teams threw for 4000 or more yards. And his teams have only thrown 30 TD's 1 time and over 25 5 other times. That's not much.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Those stats should be taken with a grain of salt given the NFL has slowly transformed into more of a passing league, with new passer friendly rules...which is why the NFL is breaking passing records across the board. Further, the best year for precedent is often the most recent year(not always-see Brady), and I think this is a situation where that applies.

With Lefty you choose to discount his injuries and say he will do beter. Whereas with Bulger you used it against him. Neither have stayed healthy and yet Bulger has outproduced him in every way measured and yet you rank Lefty ahead of him. Actually you have them both ranked at 11? Now it's even more wierd.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Bulger is 10, Lefty is 11...there's probably more typos in there. As for discounting injuries for one player vs. another, I taken into account an entire risk portfolio. Risk becomes less of a factor for lower ranked players and is more of a factor for higher ranked players...sort of a sliding scale if you will.

 

[LHUCKS]

Last year I had Culpepper ranked lower than most at #5…that ranking was just low enough to ensure that he would not be on any of my fantasy teams and I in turn didn’t end up with a bust of a pick in the early rounds.  The same principle can be applied to this situation.

When people say they were right because someone got injured I start to question what the point is. Predicting injuries is nothing more than a guessing game. I'm not sure if your saying you felt he would get injured or not but you seem to be suggesting that was the reason for your ranking of him last year. I don't really follow that. If you thought he was going to be injured then why rank him as your 5? It seem contradictory to say that now after ranking him at 5.

Actually his play was far worse than the injury. Once he was injured people could finally cut bait on the guy, but by then the season was probably already shot. I think he's saying that he had just enough doubts about his risk factors to rank him down at 5, but in reality the worst case scenario came true and he was far worse. The possiblity of downside was just enough to make Pepper undraftable by LHUCKS, saving him much pain.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[LHUCKS]

[SIZE=17pt]1)  Marc Bulger Ranked #6[/SIZE]

LHUCKS Ranking:  #11

...

[SIZE=17pt]2)  Byron Leftwich Ranked #18[/SIZE]

LHUCKS Ranking: #11

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Clarify? Is Bulger 11 or Lefty? I'm guessing 11a and 11b? While I respectfully disagree about Bulger being quite that low, I think the reasoning is sound for a slight drop. I still think the composite of 6 is about where I expect him to end the year. Great work as always, and sorry if someone else already pointed that out (perused the replies and didn't see it mentioned).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Bulger is 10..will fix...I'm surprised there's not more of this. It took 7 hours to write this thing.

 

[LHUCKS]

Bump for editing. I would like to hear your thoughts.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you may have gotten a quicker response had you not used a negative tone

 

[BassNBrew]

Definately disagree on Bulger. He finished last year as number two on a ppg basis and basically the entire offense is returning intact. Given the Rams average at best D and the offenses/defenses in the rest of the league, this team will have to scored a lot of points.

I see Brooks as being vastly under rated. He finished #13 last year on a ppg basis despite playing every game on the road and losing his main running threat and main WR for portions of the year. Moss+Porter+Curry+Gabriel >>>> Horn+Stallworth+Hakim. Not to mention Jordon receiving skills. Add in the attrocious Oakland Defense and Al liking to chuck it deep and you have a top perfromer at a bargain price.

 

[LHUCKS]

1) I agree with those pimping Hasselbeck, including yourself. 

3) A final word on Hasselbeck -- I'd also like to point out and agree with you

4) I totally agree with you on Bulger --

5) I agree with you on McNabb --

6) I agree on Bledsoe

7) I also agree on Leftwich

8) Finally, I agree on Kitna

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[LHUCKS]

Definately disagree on Bulger.  He finished last year as number two on a ppg basis and basically the entire offense is returning intact.  Given the Rams average at best D and the offenses/defenses in the rest of the league, this team will have to scored a lot of points.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

- With Martz gone you're going to see significantly less pass attempts...I don't put much stock into last year's ppg- Bulger is also severely dinged for injury risk.

- Martz made some of those players IMHO, not the other way around

- Frerotte as the backup there makes me nervous...call me crazy

I see Brooks as being vastly under rated.  He finished #13 last year on a ppg basis despite playing every game on the road and losing his main running threat and main WR for portions of the year.  Moss+Porter+Curry+Gabriel >>>> Horn+Stallworth+Hakim.  Not to mention Jordon receiving skills.  Add in the attrocious Oakland Defense and Al liking to chuck it deep and you have a top perfromer at a bargain price.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Very possible, but the Raiders will suck and Walters will get a shot in the second half if Brooks is as inconsistent as he was in NO last year. I almost see Brooks as a boom/bust pick. I wouldn't be surprised if he put up 4000 yards passing and I wouldn't be surprised if he got yanked by midseason. If you can get him late he is a nice upside pick...but FBG has him ranked fairly agressive IMHO.

 

[LHUCKS]

Edit to add: I hadn't realized so many people had replied already.  That's what I get for posting while playing cards.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I feel like I've lost a friend...you need to get over this poker thing. (jk)

 

[LHUCKS]

Some thoughts.  You site Brady as having lost weapons in the passing game and site great gains in the running game with Dillon healthy and Maroney via the draft.  Why did you not note that NE spent 3 of its 1st 4 picks in the draft on WR, TE, TE?  Not only did they draft to add weapons, they TRADED up for Jackson!  I see Brady having more weapons, better depth and better talent surounding him in the passing game.... not less.  Now, will NE need to pass as often?  Well I guess we'll have to see on that.  I think you only showed half the information on that part though.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You'd rather have a rookie than David Givens? I think the addition of Maroney will allow BB to run more, which his recent past has shown he prefers to do. When the Pats were at their best they didn't pass as much as they did last year...BB obviously knows this. Don't get me wrong here though, I have Brady in the same tier as Hasselbeck and as Bob Henry noted, it's a very tight tier.

There seems to be a condradiction in regards to you being down on Bulger but high on Lefty IMO too.  You site Bulger's inability to stay healthy as reaon #1 for his overranking (McNabb a bit too).  I totally agree as a Bulger owner and it's frustrating because he is always amoung the top 5 QBs... then goes down.  Lefty however has never played a full season in the NFL and you do not site this at all for him.  What gives?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I actually wanted to rank Lefty as high as #8 which is where his ppg fell last year, but I actually knocked him down three spots because of his inability to stay healthy. Additionally, overall risk plays less of a role in lower ranked players than higher ranked players in my projections/rankings.

 

[gocats]

Thanks LHUCKS for all for all the excellent content you provide

 

[bagger.]

I thought you were low on Eli Manning for 2006?

no i think there is a very distinct possibility of the mannings going 1, 2 this year. eli has progressed faster than i would have expected.

Brady is interesting because, while he fits my criteria of rock-solid, guaranteed production, that usually was on the low end of the top 12.  Pats running game falls apart, along with the simultaneous crumbling of consistently top 5ish QBs in C-Pepp, McNabb and Brooks then Brady jumps up to #2.  This is new territory for Brady.  Hass has been there once before, and last year probably would've been a threepeat if he hadn't been injured in 2004.

McNabb is not a guy I would feel rock solid about heading into 2006, so I guess we'll just disagree there.

Compared to McNabb, I don't have as much to say about Plummer.  It's reasonable, although last year they certainly didn't appear to want him throwing much.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i agree about mcnabb and will not pay a high price for any qb.

 

[bagger.]

i really don't get the love for hasselback.  i can see an upside of #5 but nothing higher than that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hasselbeck knows the offense like the back of his hand, is extremely efficient, and just a very good overall qb. He's underrated in large part due to the fact that the team could run at will so why pass.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

what does that have to do with fantasy production?

 

[LHUCKS]

eli has progressed faster than i would have expected.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Tell me about it...I think the entire industry missed the boat on Eli last year.

 

[bagger.]

How many QBs can you rank above Hasselbeck, that you feel rock solid about their production heading into 2006?  A guy that when you hear his name, you can just rattle off what his expected production should be without having to think hard about coaching/personnel changes.

I'll spot you Peyton Manning.  When you hear his name, you think 4,000+ yards and 28+ TDs in the bank.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

elipeyton

brady

mcnabb

plummer

and a couple other potential break out QBs who are more risk/reward but can get at a much lower draft price to compensate you for it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There's another guy I'd put on the list before most of the guys bagger mentioned. I seem to be a lot higher on him than anyone else is this year. But he's coming off his third straight 4,000 yard season. His team leads the NFL in total yards over the last five years (since this QB became the starter) and is second in points over that period. He leads the entire NFL in total passing yards over the past three seasons -- Manning is second.He's not getting a lot of love, but I think he's a pretty low risk.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i thought about including green but he is now or will be 36.i do not feel good about that.

i would rank him higher than hasselback but the question was about feeling comfortable about the ranking.

i also didn't list brooks who i have as the #3 QB.

 

[bagger.]

I see Brooks as being vastly under rated.  He finished #13 last year on a ppg basis despite playing every game on the road and losing his main running threat and main WR for portions of the year.  Moss+Porter+Curry+Gabriel >>>> Horn+Stallworth+Hakim.  Not to mention Jordon receiving skills.  Add in the attrocious Oakland Defense and Al liking to chuck it deep and you have a top perfromer at a bargain price.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

quiet you.he needs to continue to fly under the radar.

 

[LHUCKS]

i also didn't list brooks who i have as the #3 QB.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[bagger.]

i also didn't list brooks who i have as the #3 QB.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

lolmy initial run he was #2, and eli was #3. they have now swapped. it is still early so he may slide, but even if he ends up being 6-8, he is a huge value play given his adp will be 10th round+.

 

[LHUCKS]

i also didn't list brooks who i have as the #3 QB.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

lolmy initial run he was #2, and eli was #3. they have now swapped. it is still early so he may slide, but even if he ends up being 6-8, he is a huge value play given his adp will be 10th round+.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I actually think he has #3 type upside, but I also believe he has #26 downside. Classic boom/bust if you ask me.

 

[bagger.]

i also didn't list brooks who i have as the #3 QB.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

lolmy initial run he was #2, and eli was #3. they have now swapped. it is still early so he may slide, but even if he ends up being 6-8, he is a huge value play given his adp will be 10th round+.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I actually think he has #3 type upside, but I also believe he has #26 downside. Classic boom/bust if you ask me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

even in New Orleans in pretty much the worst situation possible he was #16. Before that he was underrated and consistant every year:
Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------2001          59             6             212002          44             6             362003          26             5             442004          32             8             462005           0            16            130--------------------------------------------------How do you get #26?He is a lock for the top 10 this year as Tui nor Walter will challenge him IMO.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

even in New Orleans in pretty much the worst situation possible he was #16.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And that was with being benched for three games after calling the owner a cheapskate.

 

[LHUCKS]

How do you get #26?

He is a lock for the top 10 this year as Tui nor Walter will challenge him IMO.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't get me wrong, I have Brooks ranked #12 on the strength of his upside, but I can also envision a scenario where the Raiders are 2-6 and Brooks gets benched due to inconsistent play. There's no way in hell that I'd rank him over Brady, Eli, Hassel or Bledsoe.But like I said, I like his upside and would love to have him as my backup in most formats.

If I like what I see in the preseaon he could definitely creep up my rankings.

 

[radballs.]

i also didn't list brooks who i have as the #3 QB.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

lolmy initial run he was #2, and eli was #3. they have now swapped. it is still early so he may slide, but even if he ends up being 6-8, he is a huge value play given his adp will be 10th round+.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I actually think he has #3 type upside, but I also believe he has #26 downside. Classic boom/bust if you ask me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But, if his downside is that he'll get yanked mid-season, then his PPG will warrant a much higher ranking than your hypothetical 26. Plug in your backup after a top 5 FF guy gets pulled and that means that he's probably still a top 10-12 guy at a minimum.On a side note, it seems interesting that some of the QBs are immune to coaching changes/philosophies/surrounding personnel and others aren't. I personally think that too much is being made by LHUCKS about a player's coach, situation, injury history, etc. when we're talking about a veteran player. I don't think that injuries are indicative of a person's future tendency to get injured (for the most part). Also, if a QB has good weapons to throw to, he is likely to have a good passing season. I just disagree with the "Mike Martz was a mad man passing machine" as a coach and "Linehan is going to pound the rock 30-35 times a game". Sorry, but if you have Holt, Bruce, Curtis, and others as targets in the passing game you're going to throw the ball period. I think Bulger will probably be underrated this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

I just disagree with the "Mike Martz was a mad man passing machine" as a coach and "Linehan is going to pound the rock 30-35 times a game". Sorry, but if you have Holt, Bruce, Curtis, and others as targets in the passing game you're going to throw the ball period. I think Bulger will probably be underrated this year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Underrated at #6?OBTW, I believe Martz created Holt/Curtis, not the other way around. Addtionally I think he prolonged Bruce's career.

We see it time and time again where an innovative offensive coach takes a bunch of players and puts up huge offensive numbers with innovative play calling. Coryell, Walsh etc. Martz is in the same class IMHO.

Many consider him an offensive genius...I'm on that side of the fence.

 

[bostonfred]

Edit to add: I hadn't realized so many people had replied already.  That's what I get for posting while playing cards.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I feel like I've lost a friend...you need to get over this poker thing. (jk)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If it makes you feel any better, I won the tourney I was playing. Now that we're getting some post-draft threads in here, I'll be more involved over here. I've never claimed to be a draft guru, so sitting around talking about whether Chad Jackson is better than Sinorice Moss is hard until I see who drafted them. Now, of course, we all know it's going to be Jackson.

I like the discussion about Brooks, but I think another guy flying under the radar a little is Brees. Horn, Stallworth, Hilton, etc, are a quality receiving crew, we know that Brees can throw it short to the running back, and we know that Bush can catch. Last year was a huge down year for them and there's still some negativity in the fan base towards ownership, but I think there's going to be a lot more excitement over the additions of Bush and Brees.

 

[bostonfred]

I just disagree with the "Mike Martz was a mad man passing machine" as a coach and "Linehan is going to pound the rock 30-35 times a game". Sorry, but if you have Holt, Bruce, Curtis, and others as targets in the passing game you're going to throw the ball period. I think Bulger will probably be underrated this year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Underrated at #6?OBTW, I believe Martz created Holt/Curtis, not the other way around. Addtionally I think he prolonged Bruce's career.

We see it time and time again where an innovative offensive coach takes a bunch of players puts up huge offensive numbers. Coryell, Walsh etc. Martz is in the same class IMHO. Many consider him an offensive genius...I'm on that side of the line.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think Martz helped Holt and Bruce put up better stats than they would have with another coach, but he did a lot more for Faulk/Curtis/Hakim. I don't think Holt will forget how to play, but I expect his numbers to dip some. I definitely expect Bulger's numbers to drop, although I think he'll stay healthier, too. You have to expect that they'll keep more blockers in this year, which is both good and bad for Bulger.

 

[radballs.]

I just disagree with the "Mike Martz was a mad man passing machine" as a coach and "Linehan is going to pound the rock 30-35 times a game". Sorry, but if you have Holt, Bruce, Curtis, and others as targets in the passing game you're going to throw the ball period. I think Bulger will probably be underrated this year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Underrated at #6?OBTW, I believe Martz created Holt/Curtis, not the other way around. Addtionally I think he prolonged Bruce's career.

We see it time and time again where an innovative offensive coach takes a bunch of players puts up huge offensive numbers. Coryell, Walsh etc. Martz is in the same class IMHO. Many consider him an offensive genius...I'm on that side of the line.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not. I believe that coaches, for the most part, work with the talent that they are fortunate enough to work with. It's not the other way around. Good coaches know how to get the most out of their available talent. If a pass happy coach has good run blocking linemen and smash mouth running backs, he's going to change his philosophy. Head coaches don't have the egos anymore to try to fit a square peg into a round hole if they want to keep their job for a long time.

 

[LHUCKS]

Now that we're getting some post-draft threads in here, I'll be more involved over here.  I've never claimed to be a draft guru, so sitting around talking about whether Chad Jackson is better than Sinorice Moss is hard until I see who drafted them. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yeah, me neither, I try to watch as much college ball as possible and go out of my way to watch the top pro prospects, but I'm nowhere near where Wood, Bloom or some of the other draftniks around here are. Probably the weakest part of my fantasy game.

 

[LHUCKS]

I like the discussion about Brooks, but I think another guy flying under the radar a little is Brees.  Horn, Stallworth, Hilton, etc, are a quality receiving crew, we know that Brees can throw it short to the running back, and we know that Bush can catch.  Last year was a huge down year for them and there's still some negativity in the fan base towards ownership, but I think there's going to be a lot more excitement over the additions of Bush and Brees.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Like Brooks, he's not getting totally disrespected as he has a top 15 ranking...the question is which of the proven QBs ahead of him would you rank lower? Also, any time a QB is coming off a surgery related to throwing motion I get a little nervous.

 

[BassNBrew]

I see Brooks as being vastly under rated.  He finished #13 last year on a ppg basis despite playing every game on the road and losing his main running threat and main WR for portions of the year.  Moss+Porter+Curry+Gabriel >>>> Horn+Stallworth+Hakim.  Not to mention Jordon receiving skills.  Add in the attrocious Oakland Defense and Al liking to chuck it deep and you have a top perfromer at a bargain price.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

quiet you.he needs to continue to fly under the radar.



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry I just figured it was the equivalent of saying Jessica Alba is hot.

 

[jurb26]

I see Brooks as being vastly under rated.  He finished #13 last year on a ppg basis despite playing every game on the road and losing his main running threat and main WR for portions of the year.  Moss+Porter+Curry+Gabriel >>>> Horn+Stallworth+Hakim.  Not to mention Jordon receiving skills.  Add in the attrocious Oakland Defense and Al liking to chuck it deep and you have a top perfromer at a bargain price.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

quiet you.he needs to continue to fly under the radar.



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry I just figured it was the equivalent of saying Jessica Alba is hot.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm absolutly shocked that we have seen 2 QB "critiques" and this has not come up until now. Brooks is the most underrated QB FBG has right now. I just didn't want to be the one to point it out. OK, so maybe an aexageration. He is still underrated though.

 

[Family Matters]

Bump for editing. I would like to hear your thoughts.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you may have gotten a quicker response had you not used a negative tone
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I thought I madew it clear that I wasn't being negative. Guess you missed that. But if you put them oput there expect get feedback that you may not like. Try to realize it's a dialouge, not an attack.

 

[nygiants56]

As far as Kitna, I think ONE of the Detroit QBs COULD be a big steal late in the draft.  Or they could just play 8 games each and be a waste.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

True, it is Detroit, afterall..

Kitna succeeded in Cincy b/c of the solid running game ( Rudi) to keep defenses honest....

I'm not sure that the Lions have the same talent..

by the time the Thanksgiving Game roles around and Detroit is out of playoff contention McCown will be starting, IMO..the fact that they passed on Leinart & Cutler in the draft, tells me that they are content with McCown being their QB of the future..Kitna is decent, but, he's nothing more than a stop-gap player at this point...

so your point that each could play 8 games is probably dead-on!

 

[nygiants56]

i really don't get the love for hasselback.  i can see an upside of #5 but nothing higher than that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How many QBs can you rank above Hasselbeck, that you feel rock solid about their production heading into 2006? A guy that when you hear his name, you can just rattle off what his expected production should be without having to think hard about coaching/personnel changes.I'll spot you Peyton Manning. When you hear his name, you think 4,000+ yards and 28+ TDs in the bank.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

brees in N.O. ( vastly underrated QB) , Eli ( great stats in just his first full season as a starting QB), tom brady ( always produces and throws few interceptions)I'll go out on a limb and say , gulp, Kurt Warner..got all the weapons at his disposal..it should be like shooting fish in a barrel for him in 2006, as long as he stays healthy... Hasselbeck celebrated his best season as a pro last year,he has a lifetime 86.6 QB rating and has tossed 96 tds to 57 int's..these are decent stats, but they aren't that much better than Jake Delhomme's stats ( 75 td/52 int, 84.5 rating) or Brees, or Warner...Brady should be even better in '06 because they should have a better running game so he won't throw nearly as many int's..Warner is a gamble, I admit.

I guess you have to put someone at #5, I just don't get all excited about Hasselbeck , a guy who's never thrown more than 26 tds in a season, playing for a team that lost in the SB( since 2000,the losing team in the SB has failed to make the playoffs the following year)..

for the high price of Hass, you could ust wait a few rounds , and get Delhomme...

 

[msommer]

As far as Kitna, I think ONE of the Detroit QBs COULD be a big steal late in the draft.  Or they could just play 8 games each and be a waste.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

True, it is Detroit, afterall..

Kitna succeeded in Cincy b/c of the solid running game ( Rudi) to keep defenses honest....

I'm not sure that the Lions have the same talent..

by the time the Thanksgiving Game roles around and Detroit is out of playoff contention McCown will be starting, IMO..the fact that they passed on Leinart & Cutler in the draft, tells me that they are content with McCown being their QB of the future..Kitna is decent, but, he's nothing more than a stop-gap player at this point...

so your point that each could play 8 games is probably dead-on!



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not sold on Kitna. FWIW (and that might be nothing) IMO Martz will end up with McCown, but it might not be until week 6.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I think you are right on.  I wouldn't argue with anything you said. 

I don't know if Hasselback will be QB 2 at the end of the year but you can get him as the 6-8 QB off the board I am sure and he will end up no lower than that and there is good reason to believe that he will finish with better stats than last year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If Hasselback is getting this kind of hype now in May, what makes anyone think he will be the #6-8 QB off the board when the FBG hype machine has gone into full effect? I'm not saying he will not be #2 but he may be the worst value pick in the 2006 season. An upside of 2 and downside of 10 and will most likely be the #2 QB off the board. No thanks, I'll wait until rounds 6-8 for my QB as usual.

 

[Ed Wood]

I have much love for Joe, David and the FBG site in general...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But, seriously, LHucks, great work...

 

[JimmyD]

I see Brooks as being vastly under rated.  He finished #13 last year on a ppg basis despite playing every game on the road and losing his main running threat and main WR for portions of the year.  Moss+Porter+Curry+Gabriel >>>> Horn+Stallworth+Hakim.  Not to mention Jordon receiving skills.  Add in the attrocious Oakland Defense and Al liking to chuck it deep and you have a top perfromer at a bargain price.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

quiet you.he needs to continue to fly under the radar.



<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry I just figured it was the equivalent of saying Jessica Alba is hot.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm absolutly shocked that we have seen 2 QB "critiques" and this has not come up until now. Brooks is the most underrated QB FBG has right now. I just didn't want to be the one to point it out. OK, so maybe an aexageration. He is still underrated though.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd agree with this as of now, but once August rolls around he'll jump up the rankings.I feel that once the mags hit the stores the word will be out and he'll go from low risk to high price overnight.

 

[bagger.]

I'd agree with this as of now, but once August rolls around he'll jump up the rankings.

I feel that once the mags hit the stores the word will be out and he'll go from low risk to high price overnight.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How so? He is historically undervalued and with the year he came off of last year I would expect that trend to continue.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Hasselbeck celebrated his best season as a pro last year,he has  a lifetime 86.6 QB rating and has tossed 96 tds to 57 int's..these are decent stats, but they aren't that much better than Jake Delhomme's stats ( 75 td/52 int, 84.5 rating) or Brees, or Warner...Brady should be  even better in '06 because they should have a better running game so he won't throw nearly as many int's..Warner is a gamble, I admit.

Hasselbeck's numbers were comparable to his 2003 numbers. It's not like he had some huge season of previously unseen production.In 2004, he was on pace for 3800 & 25. Right in line with what he did in 2003 and 2005.

I mentioned my feelings on Brady already. He is rock solid consistent at the bottom of the top 12 fantasy QBs. Not that anything is wrong with that, I just feel he was helped out a lot by a poor running game.

All things considered, I think Brady is probably now a top 5 guy, but I like Hass a little more. Same tier, just slightly lower. Now with Hasselbeck going QB2 in drafts, he won't be on any of my teams anyway.

Warner is the exact opposite of my "rock solid guaranteed take it to the bank been there doing that the last 3 years no problem" QB. I won't even get into that.

Brees may be underrated, but he's hardly a mortal lock for top 5 QB production over a 16 game stretch.

 

[LHUCKS]

Now with Hasselbeck going QB2 in drafts, he won't be on any of my teams anyway.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is also true, people will reach on the #2 QB this year...whoever that is. Hasselbeck will probably not be on any of my teams this year although he's my #2.

My QB strategy this year will be wait and then wait some more...unless one of my second tier guys slides(Eli, Hass, Brady)

 

[Capt Hook]

First and foremost PROPS to LHUCKS for his time and thoughts in sharing his anaylsis of the QB ratings. As always a very good job.

Most FF sites don't even have rankings up yet for this year - another reason that we are all here. A review of FBG QB rankings would be far more interesting if compared with real sites - frankly I don't give a rat's what ESPN and Yahoo have for rankings.

Just thought I would share the current rankings from Fantasy Sports Magazine (although I don't even think their first magazine is out yet).

QB.................................FBG...........LHUCKS...............FSM

HASSELBECK...................2.................2.......................3

BULGER...........................6................10......................5

McNABB..........................4.................8........................4

BLEDSOE........................10................5.......................7

LEFTWICH.......................18..............11.......................20

KITNA............................25...............18........................25

 

[LHUCKS]

First and foremost PROPS to LHUCKS for his time and thoughts in sharing his anaylsis of the QB ratings. As always a very good job.

Most FF sites don't even have rankings up yet for this year - another reason that we are all here. A review of FBG QB rankings would be far more interesting if compared with real sites - frankly I don't give a rat's what ESPN and Yahoo have for rankings.

Just thought I would share the current rankings from Fantasy Sports Magazine (although I don't even think their first magazine is out yet).

QB.................................FBG...........LHUCKS...............FSM

HASSELBECK...................2.................2.......................3

BULGER...........................6................10......................5

McNABB..........................4.................8........................4

BLEDSOE........................10................5.......................7

LEFTWICH.......................18..............11.......................20 

KITNA............................25...............?........................25

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Kitna is 18, and yes Lefty will probably be on everyone of my teams this year. He's on all three of my FBG-related survivor teams thus far.

 

[Musesboy]

LHUCKS, I respect your knowledge and the time you put in to this. There is some first rate analysis here

I agree with all of your evaluations apart from one: Marc Bulger. I don't mean any disrespect. I realize that my opinion is worth nothing on these boards as I don't have a proven track record of posting. But for the sake of debate, here goes...

I think you have placed too much emphasis on Linehan's performance in Miami last year. He improved the passing offense from 21st to 16th using what was a back up quarterback from his Minnesota days. Chris Chambers enjoyed a career high in receptions and yardage, and also matched his TD record with 11.

In 2004, Minnesota finished 2nd to the Colts in passing yardage despite Moss being dinged up. In 2003 they were 4th and in 2002 they finished 9th.

Martz has gone and Linehan will install a new offense, but you still have to take into account the continuity of personnel. Bulger has all of his weapons back, and arguably an upgrade at TE. He is used to throwing to Holt and Bruce.

The Rams have at least five straight years of top five finishes in total passing. Coaches tend to play to team strengths, and the Rams can pass the ball.

Bulger missed one game in 2003 and two in 2004 before last year's eight. If he learns not to tackle with his throwing shoulder, I expect him to manage 14 games in 2006.

His 2005 start was phenomenal. I am sure that those that rank him low are factoring in several missed games with injury. If healthy for the majority of the season, I believe he has a chance to get closest to Peyton Manning.

As you rightly say, one of the first things Linehan did was add Frerotte. I believe he did that because he was a cheap option that knows the system. I think that if Bulger is drafted in the middle rounds and Frerotte is added in the last round, owners can get exceptional value in return for that investment.

The schedule looks good with a mix of weak defenses and several games against high scoring teams that could lead to a shootout.

The majority of games will be played indoors or in warm weather:

Denver

@San Francisco

@Arizona

Detroit

@Green Bay

Seattle

@San Diego

Kansas City

@Seattle

@Carolina

San Francisco

Arizona

Chicago

@Oakland

Washington

@Minnesota

I am very high on Bulger's chances for the above reasons.

 

[Family Matters]

LHUCKS, I respect your knowledge and the time you put in to this. There is some first rate analysis here 

I agree with all of your evaluations apart from one: Marc Bulger. I don't mean any disrespect. I realize that my opinion is worth nothing on these boards as I don't have a proven track record of posting. But for the sake of debate, here goes...

I think you have placed too much emphasis on Linehan's performance in Miami last year. He improved the passing offense from 21st to 16th using what was a back up quarterback from his Minnesota days. Chris Chambers enjoyed a career high in receptions and yardage, and also matched his TD record with 11.

In 2004, Minnesota finished 2nd to the Colts in passing yardage despite Moss being dinged up. In 2003 they were 4th and in 2002 they finished 9th.

Martz has gone and Linehan will install a new offense, but you still have to take into account the continuity of personnel. Bulger has all of his weapons back, and arguably an upgrade at TE. He is used to throwing to Holt and Bruce.

The Rams have at least five straight years of top five finishes in total passing. Coaches tend to play to team strengths, and the Rams can pass the ball.

Bulger missed one game in 2003 and two in 2004 before last year's eight. If he learns not to tackle with his throwing shoulder, I expect him to manage 14 games in 2006.

His 2005 start was phenomenal. I am sure that those that rank him low are factoring in several missed games with injury. If healthy for the majority of the season, I believe he has a chance to get closest to Peyton Manning.

As you rightly say, one of the first things Linehan did was add Frerotte. I believe he did that because he was a cheap option that knows the system. I think that if Bulger is drafted in the middle rounds and Frerotte is added in the last round, owners can get exceptional value in return for that investment.

The schedule looks good with a mix of weak defenses and several games against high scoring teams that could lead to a shootout The majority of games will be played indoors or in warm weather:

Denver

@San Francisco

@Arizona

Detroit

@Green Bay

Seattle

@San Diego

Kansas City

@Seattle

@Carolina

San Francisco

Arizona

Chicago

@Oakland

Washington

@Minnesota

I am very high on Bulger's chances for the above reasons.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is an excellent post. Well said and very respectful. You did a much better job of disagreeing than I did. I wish I had done as well myself. Good work here!

 

[LHUCKS]

I agree with all of your evaluations apart from one: Marc Bulger. I don't mean any disrespect. I realize that my opinion is worth nothing on these boards as I don't have a proven track record of posting. But for the sake of debate, here goes...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nah dude...everyone's opinion is valid around here as long as it is backed up with some sound analysis and a friendly tone.

I think you have placed too much emphasis on Linehan's performance in Miami last year. He improved the passing offense from 21st to 16th using what was a back up quarterback from his Minnesota days. Chris Chambers enjoyed a career high in receptions and yardage, and also matched his TD record with 11.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But they still only finished 16th in what was a very balanced offense, Martz' offense was not balanced.

In 2004, Minnesota finished 2nd to the Colts in passing yardage despite Moss being dinged up. In 2003 they were 4th and in 2002 they finished 9th.

The Rams have at least five straight years of top five finishes in total passing. Coaches tend to play to team strengths, and the Rams can pass the ball.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I just don't put as much weight as others seem to be putting in stats from recent years in situations where there is a significant coaching change...the pass attempts are going to decrease.

Martz has gone and Linehan will install a new offense, but you still have to take into account the continuity of personnel. Bulger has all of his weapons back, and arguably an upgrade at TE. He is used to throwing to Holt and Bruce.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes the continuity and strength of the personnel around Bulger are what helped keep Bulger in my top 10...despite his inability to stay healthy.

Bulger missed one game in 2003 and two in 2004 before last year's eight. If he learns not to tackle with his throwing shoulder, I expect him to manage 14 games in 2006.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't predict # of games as part of my analysis, but I do use "risk factors" that are essentially the equivalent...13-14 sounds about right.

As you rightly say, one of the first things Linehan did was add Frerotte. I believe he did that because he was a cheap option that knows the system. I think that if Bulger is drafted in the middle rounds and Frerotte is added in the last round, owners can get exceptional value in return for that investment.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In most of my leagues roster spots are very valuable for holding onto sleeper WRs or RBs....but I see your point. Cheap, good handcuffs should be factored more into a QBs worth in leagues with deep rosters.

The schedule looks good with a mix of weak defenses and several games against high scoring teams that could lead to a shootout.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep...very nice schedule.

 

[LHUCKS]

It should be noted that this is a critique of year-end projection rankings, which is what these are for most of the staff. They are not rankings in which I would draft from for redraft purposes. Bulger's ranking increases to around #8 in that format.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Good analysis. What scoring was used in these rankings?

I like the Bledsoe and Kitna calls

 

[LHUCKS]

Good analysis.  What scoring was used in these rankings? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

FBG scoring

I like the Bledsoe and Kitna calls

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Funny, I don't even see Bledsoe as a "call", he finished 6th last year without TO.I don't understand the Kitna haterade people are drinking...the guy was solid his last two years as a starter and McCown is not very good...I know, I live in AZ.