LHUCKS' 5th Annual FBG Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

I have much love for Joe, David and the FBG site in general and this series of critiques is by no means intended to be an analysis of negative tone. FBG is easily the best fantasy football product available and if I didn’t respect the opinions of the staff and ownership here I wouldn’t be composing this analysis.

With that being said let the critiquing begin.

OVERRATED

Tom Brady Ranked #3

It feels weird to say Tom Brady is overrated. IMHO he’s the second best QB in the game. That being said, this is fantasy football and I just don’t see the justification for ranking Brady as the #3 QB this year. Here are a couple of points you might want to consider before taking Brady as the third QB off the board.

First, Tom finished #8 in QB PPG scoring last year. McNabb, Manning, Brees, Vick, Bulger and Kitna all had better PPG. Five others were within one point of Brady which were the following: Cutler, Roethlisberger, Leftwich, Young and Favre. Unless you’re into projecting exact games played for QBs, PPG is a stat that shouldn’t be ignored by FFers. If you’re using last year’s stats as a baseline you can make an argument that Brady shouldn’t even be ranked in the top10!

Secondly, Tom Brady has only thrown for more than 3800 yards once. Additionally he’s never totaled more than 28 TDs in a season. Those finishes wont cut it in this year’s QB class. Let’s take a look at his career totals:

+---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2000 nwe | 1 | 1 3 33.3 6 2.0 0 0 | 0 0 0 || 2001 nwe | 15 | 264 413 63.9 2843 6.9 18 12 | 36 43 0 || 2002 nwe | 16 | 373 601 62.1 3764 6.3 28 14 | 42 110 1 || 2003 nwe | 16 | 317 527 60.2 3620 6.9 23 12 | 42 63 1 || 2004 nwe | 16 | 288 474 60.8 3692 7.8 28 14 | 43 28 0 || 2005 nwe | 16 | 334 530 63.0 4110 7.8 26 14 | 27 89 1 || 2006 nwe | 16 | 319 516 61.8 3529 6.8 24 12 | 49 102 0 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| TOTAL | 96 | 1896 3064 61.9 21564 7.0 147 78 | 239 435 3 |Taking a look at those numbers Brady had just one top three caliber year which was in 2005…a year which coach Belicheck openly stated they passed the ball much more than he would have liked. Belicheck doesn’t want to pass for 4000 yards and with an improved defense he shouldn’t need to. Having weapons like Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth sounds sexy, but if you don’t need to pass the ball in the NFL, coaches almost always don’t. Belicheck is not Mike Martz. To expect big numbers from Tom Brady this year because he’s added a past-his-prime Randy Moss and an injury riddled Donte Stallworth is to ignore a mountain of statistical data. Don’t pick Tom as the #3 QB off the board, there are better options.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Smith at #1, Henry, Yudkin and Levin at #2

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Wimer at #6

Players I have Ranked Above Brady: Brees, Bulger, McNabb, Kitna(in addition to others already ranked higher)

LHUCKS Ranking: #7

Phillip Rivers Ranked #12

Norv Turner is kind to rushing statistics, he is NOT kind to passing statistics. If you trace Turner’s career as a head coach and offensive coordinator you’ll find he loves to run the ball and his QBs’ fantasy totals are mediocre, even with a HOF QB like Troy Aikman.

Okay, so you’re not convinced. Perhaps you’re coming back with the “Well the Chargers are keeping their offensive coordinator and have stated the offense wont change much.” Okay, well Rivers finished #15 in PPG last year. If they keep the same coordinator and their offensive personnel are relatively the same this argument doesn’t have much ground to stand on.

So you’re still not convinced because you believe Rivers is going to become a better passer, enabling the offensive coordinator to open it up. Well, the Chargers are coming off a 14-2 record and have been rewarded with the single toughest QB fantasy schedule according to Clayton Gray’s SOS. Additionally, let’s not also forget the Chargers have one of the best young defenses in the game. Like Brady, Rivers will not be forced play catch up too often.

When it’s all said and done there are just too many reasons for this prognosticator to not like Rivers as a fantasy QB this year. He’s a great young QB but he’s not going to be passing for big numbers any time soon.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Wood #7, Hicks #8, Tremblay #9 alert!

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Pasquino at #21

Players I have Ranked Above Rivers: Roethlisberger, Favre, Cutler, Leftwich, E. Manning(in addition to others already ranked higher)

LHUCKS Ranking: #17

Steve McNair Ranked #20

Steve McNair was ranked 27th in PPG last year…let me restate that. Steve McNair was ranked 27th in PPG last year. The Ravens have stated they are going to take the more conservative offensive approach they used once head coach Billick took over the playcalling reigns in the second half of the season so expecting a drastic change in offensive philosophy would appear misguided. McNair’s weapons are about the same with a slight upgrade at RB. If you’ve got the same schedule, the same weapons and a conservative offense, why exactly are you projecting an increase in production? You can argue that this ranking is due to the fact that McNair played in all 16 games last year, but you would also be forgetting that he missed an average of 4 games in each of the previous three years and was knocked out early in two of his games during the ’06 season…he’s getting old and all those rushing attempts have taken their toll.

Don’t draft Steve McNair as your QB#2, he’s not going to do anything for your fantasy squad and he’s not likely to remain healthy. As a matter of fact he’s a good bet to get knocked out of games which can be an absolute death sentence to your fantasy team’s week to week chances. You’re better off drafting QBs that have a higher ceiling with less injury risk.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Tremblay #16, Smith #17

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Hicks and Norton at #29

Players I have Ranked Above McNair: Pennington, Leftwich, Garcia, Campbell

LHUCKS Ranking: #24

UNDERRATED

Donovan McNabb Ranked #6

This ranking has everything to do with McNabb’s inability to stay on the field. Although McNabb has had some tough luck with regards to being able to stay on the field I actually believe in this instance it’s not something you can project for. His last two injuries are somewhat quirky. Last year after taking a light hit out of bounds he landed awkwardly on his leg. The year before he suffered a sports hernia and I don’t recall the last time a QB had a recurring sports hernia injury.

McNabb is the #2 QB in ppg over the last three years. Additionally, he was first in TDs and second in yardage last year before his freak injury. Add into the equation that according to Gray’s SOS the Eagles have the single best QB schedule, McNabb could easily end up the top QB in the league and is nearly a lock for top 5 PPG numbers. Unless you’re in the business of projecting freak injuries, you shouldn’t be afraid to take Donovan in your fantasy draft this year…he may very well carry your fantasy squad to the championship.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Tremblay #2 and Haseley #3

Staff With Lowest Ranking: Hicks #11 and Wood #13

Players I have ranked below McNabb(that FBG doesn’t): Palmer, Brees, Brady, Bulger

LHUCKS Ranking: #2

Ben Roethlisberger Ranked #13

After an extraordinarily tough offseason which included a horrific motorcycle accident Big Ben amazingly finished #10 in QB scoring in 2006. Now enter into the equation a new headcoach that is expected to allow his OC, Bruce Arians, to spread the field more while utilizing passing threats Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller and Hines Ward.

Most importantly I’m just blown away by Ben’s considerable ability to pass the ball. He finished #7 in yards per pass attempt last year and that was with relatively few deep threats. In 2005 he finished #1. In 2004, his rookie year, Ben finished #2.(minimum 200 passing attempts) This kid is a gunslinger and I think he gets the chance to prove it in ’07 as he enters what should be the prime of his career. Don’t be surprised if Ben leaves his #10 finish from last year in the dust…all he needs is the opportunity.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Henry #7, Smith #9

Staff With Lowest Ranking: Norton #23, Levin #21

Players I have ranked below Roethlisberger: Rivers, Leinart, Romo, Hasselbeck

LHUCKS Ranking: #9

Byron Leftwich Ranked #23

After projecting Leftwich to be a value play last year he made me look good early in the the season as he was easily outperforming his ADP before succumbing to injury. It’s not well known that Leftwich has finished in the top 10 for QB ppg in each of the last two years.

Is Byron an injury risk? Absolutely. He’s big, not very athletic and has a slow release…not the best combination if you’re looking for an injury free QB. That being said Byron knows he needs to stay healthy and the Jag coaches have been working with him all offseason on exactly how to do that. The Jags know they need a healthy Leftwich if they want to make noise in the postseason. As a result, I believe there’s a very good chance Byron gets in a full year in ’07. Again, I don’t get into the business of projecting injuries for QBs. Do I ding him for his injury riddled career? Of course. Does it knock him down to QB #23? No it does not...not in my rankings.

With passing guru Dirk Koetter coming on as the new offensive coordinator and with a young WR corps maturing into what should be their prime don’t be surprised if Leftwich takes his ppg stats to the next level. He will be an excellent fantasy play as long as he’s healthy. Try to pick him up as your second QB, especially if you’re looking for production on a game to game basis.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Borberly #15, Yudkin #16

Staff With Lowest Ranking: Four staffers have him at #28

Players I have ranked below Leftwich: Smith, McNair, Pennington, Schaub

LHUCKS Ranking: #19

Well those are the QBs…I didn’t have many huge variances as you can see, so for the most part I really like this year's consensus QB rankings. Kudos to the FBG staff for putting together some pretty good QB rankings this year.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I like the Leftwich and Rivers calls a lot. Not sure about McNabb being #2 but it's certainly possible.

 

[rzrback77]

Very and enjoyed the write up and concur with the selections.

 

[The Ref]

This is why I get up early.

I agree 100% on Roethlisberger. In fact, I have Hines Ward as a "sleeper of sorts" for the same reasons.

 

[LHUCKS]

Not sure about McNabb being #2 but it's certainly possible.

Yeah, I expect this to be the least popular call of the QBs.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

So Philip Rivers isn't going to be good this season because his schedule is too hard and his team is too good (not really)?. Even though the Chargers quarterback (Drew Brees then Philip Rivers) has been in the top 10 in the last three seasons. Even though the Chargers have two of the best offensive weapons of all time in Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson. I'm sorry but that argument's weak.

Oh yeah Brad Johnson and Trent Green were both top 10 quarterbacks of teams coached by Norv Turner. So was Troy Aikman. Twice.

 

[Mapmaker]

I totally agree with the fact the staff has done a pretty solid job on the QB slot this season ... if I take a QB early it would be McNabb without a doubt, but 2nd mmmm that might be a stretch, I think he's a top 5 when it's all said and done ... good call on Lefty and Big Ben .. both underrated and great value plays at their current rankings!

The McNair call looks like quite a softball ... Brady could be 3-4 depending on the running game ... camp will answer that I think.

Good Stuff as usual LHucks !

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Not sure about McNabb being #2 but it's certainly possible.

Yeah, I expect this to be the least popular call of the QBs.

I don't think #2 is out of the question....the real question is how many games he can play.

 

[Sinrman]

Nice work, as always. Kinda surprised to not see Kitna as an over/underrated one...

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I think I agree with all of these.

 

[twitch]

I love the critiques, LH. loved 'em last year, and look forward to more this year. and in seeing this one, Im getting psyched because its timing means we're just that much closer to actually seeing some football. and nice job. Ill agree and disagree on some accounts, starting with Brady. personally, I wouldnt draft Brady in the position it would require to get him as the 3rd QB taken, but I think he gets such high praise because of his consistency. His #s arent wildly up and down, he doesnt get hurt, and he never misses games. He doesnt have top 3 or 5 #s every year, but NE has usually had a grind it out type of running game during his years...first with Antwoin Smith, then with Corey Dillon. Theyre missing the grinder, and I think it'll help Brady's #s. You know what his minimal #s are from his track record, but this year he has upside because of the presence of the new weapons, and the lack of the proven veteran RB presence. Maroney is not going to carry the load that those other 2 have in the past. I see it more as a committee running attack to keep Ds honest while Brady is slinging it around to that stacked receiver corps. I can see him reaching 30TDs this year for the first time. With a gun to my head to draft a QB early, Id probably take Brady 4th behind Manning, Palmer and Brees. So, I dont see the ranking that far off. McNabb just has too much of an injury history at this point particularly late in the season, and I couldnt stomach actually drafting Kitna ahead of Brady. Bulger maybe, but a holdout could change that. I actually like Matt Leinart's chances of coming out of nowhere and putting up top 3 QB #s this year. Phil Rivers at 12 seems about right to me. He was one of just a handful of starting QBs with single-digit INTs last year in his 1st as a starter. And 22TD passes in his first year of action isnt bad. Throw in the fact that his RB had a record breaking rushing performance and his HC was the dinosaur of all dinosaurs, and I can see room for a little statistical improvement. One thing's for sure....I think....LT cant possibly have a better year running the ball than he did last year. I completely agree with you on McNair. I wouldnt draft him, period. I wont argue with your position on McNabb too strongly, because his PPG is so high every year. But anyone drafting him just needs to cover their tail and get a quality backup (like Leinart possibly) in case McNabb suffers in his recovery or gets hurt again late in the year. You cant argue with what DMcNabb does while he's playing, but you cant win with him on your bench either. I agree with you on Roethlisberger. Last year was a worst case scenario, nighmare year for him and that entire team. He's definitely got the tools to put up #s....height, strong arm, mobility, receivers, and a RB he can dump to and take it the distance. And the conservative HC is gone that was committed to grinding it out for the most part. The uncertainty of a new staff and a new system have to factor in somewhat, though. But all of the players are the same, and he's no doubt got the ability to be top 10. It should be a strong, bounce-back year for Big Ben. Id probably rank him somewhere around 8-10. Leftwich is someone I would simply never draft. I dont care what his per game #s are. He always gets hurt, he's backed up by a proven winning QB who can relieve him at any time, and his team is now talking about bringing in Culpepper. That just doesnt offer up much confidence. These highly-drafted receivers are extremely inconsistent and obviously overrated and this team is committed to running the ball. And they have Taylor, Jones-Drew and now Greg Jones back up to do that. I can just think of about 25 other QBs Id rather have than Leftwich, and I wouldnt even want to begin to try and rank him.

This should be a great year for fantasy QBs. There are plenty of established and reliable guys out there like Manning, Palmer, Brady, Brees, Bulger, Hasselbeck and McNabb to look at. Then, you have a group of guys who are somewhat proven like Big Ben, Romo, and Eli with nice potential. There are vets like Kitna, Favre and Pennington who all have some talent around them. But the group that's the most interesting to me is that younger class including Vince Young, Jay Cutler, Leinart and Jason Campell. Young doesnt have the weapons, but you can just see the McNabb-type presence about him that's gonna be really good for #s. And Campbell is basically unproven, but I really feel this kid is ready to step up and elevate that entire team. Its gonna be a good year. thanks much for the insight and look forward to the next effort.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think you are potentially misreading the Patriots. IMO, Thomas certainly helps on defense, but they plan on big contributions from Bruschi (34), Vrabel (32), Seau (38), and Harrison (35) and if Samuel refuses to play I'm not so sure their defense is as dominant as some might think (especially with one or two injuries which they always seem to have).

On offense, I don't see them running the ball as often (or as well) as some people think either. Maroney will have some highlight reel plays but many times last year he juked himself into tackle sin the backfield. I don't know if he has a tendancy to not hit the hole, but last year he seemed to not make much happen if the hole wasn't huge.

As for their WR corps, this set is by leaps and bounds better than anything they ever had before--and it's not even close. I suspect that NE will morph into more of a passing team than a running team and they at times will go back to the dink and dunk passing attack for shot yardage similar to a ground control running game. I'm not suggesting that they will cut out Maroney from the offense, only that I don't see him as a 20-25 carry back at this point.

The Pats team rushing totals have not consistently been great. In the Belichick era, they've ranked 26, 13, 28, 27, 7, 24, and 12 in team rushing yards. THey've also ranked 24, 7, 26, 24, 10, 11, and 4 in rushing TD. Dillon was the major difference in the past three years. If the Pats look to pass the ball into the end zone in the end zone, Brady could see quite a few more TD passes this year.

And let's not forget Moss. The best comparison that I could make is PHI pre-Owens and post-Owens. The Eagles had similar circumstances (solid defense, spread the ball around, never had a go to receiver, never had a WR with big numbers, etc.) and Owens and McNabb emerged with phenomenal numbers.

Over all, I don't see the Patriots retooling their WR corps to then go out and not use it. The Pats ranked 11th in passing yards and 7th in passing TD with a cast of mediocre WR last year. Given the new crop, I find it almost unfathomable for them not to improve from those totals this year.

And if you check out there schedule, they seem to have a much tougher road to hoe this time around, another thing that is leading me to think they will HAVE to pass more because running the ball may not be as easy.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Good job Lhucks.

But your bias toawrds the Jacksonville passing game has me baffled. Is this the year they finally turn it around? Probably not.

 

[duaneok66]

nice call on Leftwich . . .

your hard work is appreciated . . .

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Brady: You make a decent case for Brady being overrated, but Maroney has to hold up all season if you're going to be right. Also, while we know Belicheck is not Martz, we also have not seen what he will do with this kind of array of weapons. Wes Welker is also a big addition, especially for keeping the chains moving. We know the Pats will find a way to use what they have to beat you. In this case, the "what they have" in the passing game is much better than that the running game. I also like that Brady has been ultradurable. He might be slightly overrated at #3, but he does provide some nice assurances for the slight reach, and there are scenarios that could see him exceed that draft position.

Rivers: I won't quibble too much with this, but the QBs from around 10-18 are pretty tightly packed, so while I agree that QB7, 8 or 9 is a slight reach for Rivers, QB11 or 12 is fine. I tend to agree that he won't be asked to put up big numbers, but he wasn't last year. The strength of schedule argument is a double edged sword - it will also keep games closer, which means Rivers will have more games where the passing game matters later in the game.

McNair: His effectiveness is tailing off, but it's hard to get too fired up about QBs in the 20s, still a soild call.

McNabb: One big thing missing from your analysis and thats the effect of coming back of an ACL tear. Palmer wasn't himself, and Culpepper will never be the same after his knee injury. McNabb's wasn't as severe, but it will definitely affect his mobility, especially at first, which should nullify his usual contributions as a runner, and take away some of his usual production after the play breaks down. I want to see/hear more about his recovery before I would consider taking him before the surer things of Brady/Brees/Bulger, and I doubt I would move him ahead of Palmer in any scenario. What are your feelings about him coming back from an ACL tear?

Ben: He's a good popular sleeper pick to be a starting quality fantasy QB after his interception fest. Can't argue with the optimism here, except I definitely would not take him over Romo.

Leftwich: Agree here, not sure why everyone is so down on him. I have Smith ahead of Leftwich because I think Smith takes a big step forward, but we are pretty much on the same page.

No Vince Young?!?!

Nice work as always.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Not sure about McNabb being #2 but it's certainly possible.

Yeah, I expect this to be the least popular call of the QBs.

I don't think #2 is out of the question....the real question is how many games he can play.

Before McNabb was hurt last season, he was far and away the best fantasy QB in my league. That includes Manning.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

McNabb: One big thing missing from your analysis and thats the effect of coming back of an ACL tear. Palmer wasn't himself, and Culpepper will never be the same after his knee injury. McNabb's wasn't as severe, but it will definitely affect his mobility, especially at first, which should nullify his usual contributions as a runner, and take away some of his usual production after the play breaks down. I want to see/hear more about his recovery before I would consider taking him before the surer things of Brady/Brees/Bulger, and I doubt I would move him ahead of Palmer in any scenario. What are your feelings about him coming back from an ACL tear?

That's the beauty of McNabb's situation Sigmund, you can get McNabb a full two rounds after the three QB's you listed because of the ???. Most of us follow the religion of waiting on your QB while Stocking up on WR and RB. McNabb's situation allows you to do that while still POSSIBLY getting a QB that will end up top 3 at year's end.

 

[David Yudkin]

Not sure about McNabb being #2 but it's certainly possible.

Yeah, I expect this to be the least popular call of the QBs.

I don't think #2 is out of the question....the real question is how many games he can play.

Before McNabb was hurt last season, he was far and away the best fantasy QB in my league. That includes Manning.

Here's my conceptual question which is almost impossible to answer.We don't know how McNabb will do coming back from injury. I think a slight dropoff may be in order, but that's just a guess. I also think his rushing totals will be lower than earlier in his career as the team probably doesn't want him in harm's way. THis leads me to conclude that his PPG will drop some (but should still be very high). What we don't know is if McNabb can stay healthy all season. He's been TKOd 3 times in 5 years.Since the staff is only asked to rank players on their TOTAL yearend numbers, we are stuck to guess how often a guy will be in the lineup. So we could think McNabb is the #1 QB in PPG but if we have him missing several games we have to rank him lower.So the question from a ranking perspective is how on earth do you rank him based on that? Most of the time it is a bit harsh to assume someone will get injured, but when someone has been banged up as much as McNabb it may seem equally foolish to assume 100% health for 16 games.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Not sure about McNabb being #2 but it's certainly possible.

Yeah, I expect this to be the least popular call of the QBs.

I don't think #2 is out of the question....the real question is how many games he can play.

Before McNabb was hurt last season, he was far and away the best fantasy QB in my league. That includes Manning.

Here's my conceptual question which is almost impossible to answer.We don't know how McNabb will do coming back from injury. I think a slight dropoff may be in order, but that's just a guess. I also think his rushing totals will be lower than earlier in his career as the team probably doesn't want him in harm's way. THis leads me to conclude that his PPG will drop some (but should still be very high). What we don't know is if McNabb can stay healthy all season. He's been TKOd 3 times in 5 years.Since the staff is only asked to rank players on their TOTAL yearend numbers, we are stuck to guess how often a guy will be in the lineup. So we could think McNabb is the #1 QB in PPG but if we have him missing several games we have to rank him lower.So the question from a ranking perspective is how on earth do you rank him based on that? Most of the time it is a bit harsh to assume someone will get injured, but when someone has been banged up as much as McNabb it may seem equally foolish to assume 100% health for 16 games.

I completely understand Dave. As I said in my follow up post, this year I like McNabb for the value he offers. I think pairing him with a backup like Leinart or Big Ben will yield MUCH better value than the guy that took Brees, Brady or Bulger two rounds previous.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Nice job as usual with this, LHUCKS.

Someone else agrees with me on Rivers.

I agree with what Bloom said about NE and the running game, which is why I have Brady in the Top 5 with a lot of certainty this year.

I see that you are pessimistic on McNair, but he has a Top 5 TE and according to Billick they will use McGahee more as a receiver, which should help McNair's numbers. A minor quibble over your #24 ranking, but I think 20-24 is the right range for him.

I'm not worried about McNabb's knee (I'm heading to Lehigh next week so I'll know more then), but word has it that he's looked not just healthy but confident. He had two extra months to heal (vs. Palmer) and less damage, and he hasn't run as much in recent seasons as he did in the past so I'm not that concerned about it. However, #2 is still pretty aggressive.

Big Ben - I'm pretty high on him as well for this year, so I won't argue your rating of him at all. I don't get the love for Leftwich in Jacksonville. The situation is not that good for him, with a HC in Del Rio that loves to run (and he has two solid options in Fred Taylor and MJD), questionable wide receivers and TE options, and a #2 QB breathing down Lefty's neck. I just don't see how Leftwich can instill confidence for his owner(s).

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

We don't know how McNabb will do coming back from injury. I think a slight dropoff may be in order, but that's just a guess. I also think his rushing totals will be lower than earlier in his career as the team probably doesn't want him in harm's way. THis leads me to conclude that his PPG will drop some (but should still be very high). What we don't know is if McNabb can stay healthy all season. He's been TKOd 3 times in 5 years.

Since the staff is only asked to rank players on their TOTAL yearend numbers, we are stuck to guess how often a guy will be in the lineup. So we could think McNabb is the #1 QB in PPG but if we have him missing several games we have to rank him lower.

So the question from a ranking perspective is how on earth do you rank him based on that? Most of the time it is a bit harsh to assume someone will get injured, but when someone has been banged up as much as McNabb it may seem equally foolish to assume 100% health for 16 games.

McNabb ran 32 times in 10 games last year. That's not that much.

 

[PsychoMan]

i agree with you on each and every one of these. i just wish you would have kept your mouth shut.

 

[PahtyTom]

Tom Brady - I don't see how you can use past stats as an indicator for Brady. I realize that you believe that Moss is past his prime, and Stallworth is injury riddled, but both are still HUGE upgrades over WRs Brady has had to work with before. And, Moss past his prime might still be have top 5 potential. You say he has never thrown for more than 28 TDs, but this is the most talent he has ever had to work with BY FAR. He's already thrown for 28 with much less talent, so who's to say he won't throw for 35 with his new cast?

Philip Rivers - First, I think we can look to what Norv did for Alex Smith last year. Going from 1 TDs and 11 INTs, to 18 total TDs and 16 INTs. Even if Turner doesn't "open up" the offense, he can still make Rivers a more effective QB with the chances he gets. It's not like Rivers was allowed to open it up last year, so any improvement Turner can make for Rivers seems like it would indicate an improvement on his fantasy numbers from last year. Another factor is your league's scoring system. In a league where turnovers are costly, Rivers offers great value at his ADP. And in leagues where turnovers are not as costly, I think his ADP is still appropriate.

McNair - I think you nailed this one.

McNabb - While I agree that his injuries were freak, the result of his latest one is still very serious and hard to bounce back from. Just ask Daunte Culpepper. McNabb is a beast when healthy, no question. But there's no way to predict how he will bounce back, so to rank him ahead of guys like Palmer, Brady, and Brees seems a bit foolish to me.

Big Ben - I'm on board.

Leftwich - I agree in theory on Byron, but I also thought he was in line for a nice season last year and it didn't happen. Plus, the fact that the coaching staff has seemingly little faith in him as their starter going forward is alarming to me. While I think he has potential, I think his #23 average ranking is fine.

 

[Jason Wood]

LHUCKS,

You know I always respect these writeups and appreciate the time you take to back up your views. Let me address a few of them in kind:

*** Philip Rivers -- I agree that QB7 seems a bit high all things being equal. But as you know, my projections are built from the ground up, and every team sums against its individual players, and then I normalize for league norms across teams. Looking at my projections, I have Rivers showing a modest improvement in his YPA, while actually showing a marginal decline in his TD per pass attempt while a slight increase in his INT per pass attempt. Given the stellar offensive line, the returning difference makers in Tomlinson and Gates, a receiving corps that, on the margin, should be improved this year and finally, a defense that's likely to retrench a bit...I'm very comfortable with 3,600 yards, 25 TDs and 11 INTs. He's part of a tier of QBs that are bunched together, so I have no particular argument if someone wants him a bit lower, but he's certainly among the top 10-12 in FBG scoring, IMHO.

*** Donovan McNabb -- This is purely a reflection of my "wait and see" approach toward his rehab. On a points per game basis, McNabb is currently 2nd in my projections behind Carson Palmer. So were I to project McNabb to play a full 16-game slate, he would indeed rank among the top 2-3. One thing you need to remember is that our rankings are supposed to reflect where we think players will rank at year end; right now given his history (that I'm all too familiar with as an Eagles fan) and the lack of physical practice yet (no hitting, no preseason game play); I'm exercising caution by forecasting him for 13 games played.

*** Tom Brady -- You didn't single me out here, but I have Brady at QB4 and squarely closer to QB3 (Bulger) than QB5 (Brees) for a number of reasons. One, you suggest he has only thrown for 3,800+ yard once; that's true but over the last five years he's AVERAGED 3,743 yards and 26 TD passes. Layer on top of that several factors and I see no way Brady isn't top-5 if healthy with a very possible top 1-2 finish.

1) Laurence Maroney factor -- Maroney is a stud in waiting, but if his shoulder is busted the Pats will need to throw more by default. Even if his should holds up, however, he was not very good in short yardage or at the goal line last year meaning, at the margin, I can see Brady throwing a few more TDs within the 20.

2) Receiving Corps -- I'm firmly in the camp that believes Moss, Stallworth, Welker and then some combination of Caldwell, Washington, Brown represents a MASSIVE upgrade and will, by itself, lead to a higher YPC and TD per pass attempt ratio. Not only does Brady have much better wide receivers now top to bottom, he's got three capable TEs and most of his RB stable are above average pass catchers.

3) Defense -- The Patriots always find a way to play good defense but if I'm to bet on which direction they're likely to land versus the consensus, it's lower. Aging linebackers may not be offset by AD's addition, particularly if one or two injuries befall the unit. And then Asante Samuel needs to get into camp. Without him, this defense isn't at all what it might've been and that, too, means potentially more passing.

Even if the defense plays well, Maroney is a beast and replicates Dillon's red zone prowess, and the receiving corps is only marginally improved, Brady is still a solid bet for 3,700+ yards and 25 TDs MINIMUM. That's fantastic downside protection for a guy that could EASILY throw 30 TD passes.

 

[freeannyong]

good work. Some real good info here.

 

[dickey moe]

Now if we could only get you to confine yourself to the Shark Pool.

 

[Ksquared]

Am I missing something about Jacksonville. Everyone keeps referring to a #2 QB ready to take over for Lefty. Is this Garrard? If it is, you must have missed how he was playing by the end of the season. Word out of Jacksonville (before the draft) had the team looking to move Garrard, but there were no takers. I do not believe Jacksonville sees Garrard as anything other than a fill in for an injured #1 QB. If we are discussing Culpepper, well atleast that is debatable.

BTW, good job LHUCKS. I always look forward to your critiques because they start some great discussions.

 

[dparker713]

I find it interesting that you used PPG as the basis for all your rankings, except Roethlisberger.

 

[1huskerfan]

So Philip Rivers isn't going to be good this season because his schedule is too hard and his team is too good (not really)?. Even though the Chargers quarterback (Drew Brees then Philip Rivers) has been in the top 10 in the last three seasons. Even though the Chargers have two of the best offensive weapons of all time in Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson. I'm sorry but that argument's weak.

Oh yeah Brad Johnson and Trent Green were both top 10 quarterbacks of teams coached by Norv Turner. So was Troy Aikman. Twice.

LOL @ Aikman being a top 10 fantasy QB. Puhleeeeze.

 

[Jason Wood]

So Philip Rivers isn't going to be good this season because his schedule is too hard and his team is too good (not really)?. Even though the Chargers quarterback (Drew Brees then Philip Rivers) has been in the top 10 in the last three seasons. Even though the Chargers have two of the best offensive weapons of all time in Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson. I'm sorry but that argument's weak.

Oh yeah Brad Johnson and Trent Green were both top 10 quarterbacks of teams coached by Norv Turner. So was Troy Aikman. Twice.

LOL @ Aikman being a top 10 fantasy QB. Puhleeeeze.

Aikman is never going to be confused for a fantasy stud, but what The Man with the Plan said is 100% accurate.Aikman was the 4th best fantasy QB in 1992, and 10th best in 1993...hardly Earth shattering stuff given the length of his playing career, but 100% accurate to what TMWTP said.

 

[BroadwayG]

I find it interesting that you used PPG as the basis for all your rankings, except Roethlisberger.

I'm surprised there were any stats mentioned.

 

[LHUCKS]

Good job Lhucks. But your bias toawrds the Jacksonville passing game has me baffled.

If it makes you feel any better I have no affiliation with the Jaguars organization or Leftwich.

 

[flufhed]

Great stuff!

I disagree on Brady for the reasons listed above, and for my #1 reason - after Manning, there is no more consistent QB than Brady, IMO. Sure, his ceiling may not be huge, but I think he has the highest floor after Manning. And, not only that, but he is the one of the most consistent from week to week. He has spikes in there, but rarely has a total stinker of a game. Starting Brady every week just gives me a warm fuzzy feeling, as I feel very confident about hat I am going to get. And for a QB not named Manning,t o me that is worth ALOT.

 

[David Yudkin]

The other thing in general is that past the top bunch of QB (say 7 or 8), there should be a HUGE group of players that should score roughly within 1 PPG. Meaning that you could pick names out of a hat and it might not make much difference. So a guy that connects on an 80 bomb for a TD could jump up 5 spots in the rankings on the basis of one play where the WR either caught or dropped the ball. IMO, there are a ton of bottom Top 10 candidates and from 8-18 there will be a pack of guys with similar total numbers.

 

[Sylira21]

Very nice analysis. Well thought and well-written.

I do have a quibble with Leftwich. Not sure I've seen the evidence for "a young WR corps maturing into what should be their prime"...they looked pretty bad to me, honestly, except for a brief spurt by Reggie Williams last year. And Leftwich's PPG numbers for last year are very skewed by his two rushing TDs in six games. He only threw seven TDs in his six starts last year, and averaged less than 200 yards per game. Those are pretty close to his career averages for passing numbers, so they don't seem anomolous. Not really what I'm looking for, especially when you throw in injury history.

 

[LHUCKS]

Hi guys,

Busy at work this morniing but I'll try to address each of the rebuttles and questions throughout the day.

 

[Snot Bubbler]

Good work LHUCKS. I look forward to your FBG Rankings Critique series every year (especially the RBs edition.) Your threads start a lot of great discussions and a big part of that comes from the staffers defending their rankings.

Brady - I've got to agree with Yudkin, Bloom, Pasquino, and Wood that Brady is most definitely a top 4 QB. I think his ceiling and floor are higher than anyone else save P Manning.

McNabb - I think you're downplaying a surgically repaired and untested ACL when all you mention is that he "landed awkwardly on his leg" last year. I will be watching (or reading) with peak interest how he fares in preseason action. The crux of the matter is that he probably won't play much in the preaseason regardless of how the knee is holding up. While I think McNabb's ceiling is #2 this year, his floor is significantly lower...like 20-25 spots lower.

 

[AB in DC]

I've been as big a McNabb supporter as you could find on these boards in past years.

Not this year.

McNabb is getting to the point where his age and the accumulation of all his past injuries can put a serious dent in his fantasy numbers. He is still not 100% from his most recent injury, and you can't help but wonder, whether on his own initiative or prodded by the coaching staff, if he'll start to hold back on his improvising/scrambling ability which has made him one of the better QBs in the game. Without that ability, he loses most of what's left of his rushing output, and he'll see a decline in passing numbers when he can no longer make things happen on his own.

You can tell that the front office in Philly already hears the clock ticking on McNabb career. Obviously they're not planning for Kolb to take over anytime this year, and probably not for 2008 either. But they obviously believe that they can't count on McNabb for a great length of time. We know that rushing QBs tend to have a shorter shelf life than pocket QBs, and at this point, it's best to assume that we'll see some decline in his numbers very soon.

If he gets through training camp without any sign of impediment from his knee injury, I'd put him back up into the top three or four, but until then, he's ranked about right in the six or seven range.

 

[The Ref]

Good work LHUCKS. I look forward to your FBG Rankings Critique series every year (especially the RBs edition.) Your threads start a lot of great discussions and a big part of that comes from the staffers defending their rankings.

Odd, it's the WR version I look forward to the most.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Good job Lhucks. But your bias toawrds the Jacksonville passing game has me baffled.

If it makes you feel any better I have no affiliation with the Jaguars organization or Leftwich.

I thought maybe the MAC was your 2nd favorite conference or something.

 

[There it is]

Good stuff. Thanks LHUCKS.

Thanks all.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Tom Brady - I don't see how you can use past stats as an indicator for Brady. I realize that you believe that Moss is past his prime, and Stallworth is injury riddled, but both are still HUGE upgrades over WRs Brady has had to work with before. And, Moss past his prime might still be have top 5 potential. You say he has never thrown for more than 28 TDs, but this is the most talent he has ever had to work with BY FAR. He's already thrown for 28 with much less talent, so who's to say he won't throw for 35 with his new cast?

damn

 

[aardball44]

McNabb: One big thing missing from your analysis and thats the effect of coming back of an ACL tear. Palmer wasn't himself, and Culpepper will never be the same after his knee injury. McNabb's wasn't as severe, but it will definitely affect his mobility, especially at first, which should nullify his usual contributions as a runner, and take away some of his usual production after the play breaks down. I want to see/hear more about his recovery before I would consider taking him before the surer things of Brady/Brees/Bulger, and I doubt I would move him ahead of Palmer in any scenario. What are your feelings about him coming back from an ACL tear?

That's the beauty of McNabb's situation Sigmund, you can get McNabb a full two rounds after the three QB's you listed because of the ???. Most of us follow the religion of waiting on your QB while Stocking up on WR and RB. McNabb's situation allows you to do that while still POSSIBLY getting a QB that will end up top 3 at year's end.

This drafting strategy worked out very well for me last year...until McNabb got hurt, that is.

Thanks, L, for the analysis.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

McNabb: One big thing missing from your analysis and thats the effect of coming back of an ACL tear. Palmer wasn't himself, and Culpepper will never be the same after his knee injury. McNabb's wasn't as severe, but it will definitely affect his mobility, especially at first, which should nullify his usual contributions as a runner, and take away some of his usual production after the play breaks down. I want to see/hear more about his recovery before I would consider taking him before the surer things of Brady/Brees/Bulger, and I doubt I would move him ahead of Palmer in any scenario. What are your feelings about him coming back from an ACL tear?

That's the beauty of McNabb's situation Sigmund, you can get McNabb a full two rounds after the three QB's you listed because of the ???. Most of us follow the religion of waiting on your QB while Stocking up on WR and RB. McNabb's situation allows you to do that while still POSSIBLY getting a QB that will end up top 3 at year's end.

This drafting strategy worked out very well for me last year...until McNabb got hurt, that is.

Thanks, L, for the analysis.

Me too. I had stashed Leinart on my squad early and had to rely on him down the strech and that hurt me. To say he wasn't McNabb's equal is a huge understatement.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

This almost makes the Pac-10 posts worth it. Almost.



Nice stuff.

 

[Gr00vus]

Good job Lhucks. But your bias toawrds the Jacksonville passing game has me baffled.

If it makes you feel any better I have no affiliation with the Jaguars organization or Leftwich.

The thing people are missing here is that LHUCKS is only moving Lefty up 4 spots to 19. If he could ever actually finish a year I think he can do that easy. I've been on the Lefty bandwagon the last couple of years, so based on those less than satisfying experiences I'm off it now as the receivers are below average at best, he gets beat up and misses time every year and most importantly the overall game plan of Jax limits Lefty's FF potential. Still I would rather have him than Schaub, Pennington and McNair for sure, probably Smith as well, so 19 for Lefty seems about right to me.I won't get into the Rivers thing here, LHUCKS has never liked him, we just disagree on that.McNabb could be #2 (or even #1) but you can't draft him that way after all the injuries, 6 seems about the right risk/reward level for him right now.I'm stumped on Roethlisberger. It'd be tough for me to get excited about him as my #1 QB unless I'd really stocked up everywhere else. Outside of Ward I'm not enamored of his receiver targets, plus the coaching change leaves an unknown as well, then there were all the interceptions. For me Ben lives in a limbo occupied by numerous guys who could go either way, of which there are a few other guys who look like they have better chances to blow up than Ben, and which I think I could take later.Good stuff LHUCKS, food for thought as you so often provide.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Good job Lhucks. But your bias toawrds the Jacksonville passing game has me baffled.

If it makes you feel any better I have no affiliation with the Jaguars organization or Leftwich.

The thing people are missing here is that LHUCKS is only moving Lefty up 4 spots to 19. If he could ever actually finish a year I think he can do that easy. I've been on the Lefty bandwagon the last couple of years, so based on those less than satisfying experiences I'm off it now as the receivers are below average at best, he gets beat up and misses time every year and most importantly the overall game plan of Jax limits Lefty's FF potential. Still I would rather have him than Schaub, Pennington and McNair for sure, probably Smith as well, so 19 for Lefty seems about right to me.I won't get into the Rivers thing here, LHUCKS has never liked him, we just disagree on that.McNabb could be #2 (or even #1) but you can't draft him that way after all the injuries, 6 seems about the right risk/reward level for him right now.I'm stumped on Roethlisberger. It'd be tough for me to get excited about him as my #1 QB unless I'd really stocked up everywhere else. Outside of Ward I'm not enamored of his receiver targets, plus the coaching change leaves an unknown as well, then there were all the interceptions. For me Ben lives in a limbo occupied by numerous guys who could go either way, of which there are a few other guys who look like they have better chances to blow up than Ben, and which I think I could take later.Good stuff LHUCKS, food for thought as you so often provide.

Lefty without Jimmy Smiff not good.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm stumped on Roethlisberger. It'd be tough for me to get excited about him as my #1 QB unless I'd really stocked up everywhere else.

My draft strategy this year is to lock up one of the top 7 QBs, so I'm not advocating he be your #1 QB.

Outside of Ward I'm not enamored of his receiver targets

Santonio Holmes turned some heads last year...the kid is the real deal Holyfield and is well like by his teammates...Holmes is one of the reasons I like Big Ben's prospects actually.

plus the coaching change leaves an unknown as well

Almost any change from Cowher is a good change for my money.

 

[LHUCKS]

Lefty without Jimmy Smiff not good.

Top 10 PPG last year.

 

[LHUCKS]

I won't get into the Rivers thing here, LHUCKS has never liked him, we just disagree on that.

It's not that I don't like Rivers...I don't like his situation in terms of it enabling Rivers to become a top fantasy QB.Rivers in Detroit or Rivers in New Orleans would be a totally different situation.