Ozymandias
Footballguy
Lies, damned lies and statistics. But you have to be careful how you read them. Assume 4 options:A. You have a good running attack, they have a good defense against running.B. You have a good running attack, they have a bad defense against running.C. You have a bad running attack, they have a good defense against running.D. You have a bad running attack, they have a bad defense against running.If I am a coach, I run on B, but pass on A,C and D. In alternative B, then the stats would show that running is successful fairly often. But it doesn't show how unsuccessful it might have been in A, C and D. (and they pass 75% of the time).Careful how you read the stats.A lot of teams will go shotgun on third and three, or even third and two.From 2002-2008, NFL teams as a whole passed 75% of the time on 3rd and 3. They ran just 25% of the time.Passing on 3rd and 3 generated a first down 53% of the time. Running on 3rd and 3 generated a first down 57% of the time.So even though running was successful more often than passing, teams passed the huge majority of the time.(Hat tip: Data Dominator.)How is that unorthodox thinking?With the Titans, Schwartz once encouraged the former offensive coordinator Norm Chow to run more on third-and-short because his research indicated that it was more effective than passing.Unorthodox thinking like that has earned Schwartz, 42, a reputation as one of the N.F.L.’s leading practitioners of statistical analysis —