Look back at 2015 rankings (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

Last year was brutal for rankings.  Here are two from August. 

Many avert their gaze but some people slow down to take a good look at car crashes causing traffic jams

Back in late August, these lists looked reasonable but we are not stopping to look at disasters.

The intent is to see if there is anything to learn as we go forward into 2016.

Only including the top-ten from each list

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http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/55917/57/silvas-preseason-top-200

Silva's Preseason Top 200
Wednesday, August 26, 2015

These are my updated Top 200 Fantasy Rankings entering the third week of the NFL preseason. 

1. Le'Veon Bell (RB1) -- The biggest weekly difference maker at running back.
2. Jamaal Charles (RB2) -- Coming off 14-TD season. Expect an uptick in targets.
3. Eddie Lacy (RB3) -- Will be a scoring machine in one of league's top offenses.
4. Adrian Peterson (RB4) -- Has 334-1,540-11 rushing line over his last 16 games.
5. Rob Gronkowski (TE1) -- Definition of a weekly fantasy difference maker.
6. Marshawn Lynch (RB5) -- 29 years old, but showing zero signs of slowdown.
7. Julio Jones (WR1) -- Headed for a monster year with Roddy in clear decline.
8. Dez Bryant (WR2) -- Last year's overall WR4 despite ranking 12th in targets.
9. Antonio Brown (WR3) -- Favorite to lead NFL in catches for 2nd straight year.
10. Demaryius Thomas (WR4) -- Enters '15 with 3 consecutive top-5 WR finishes.

 http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000515417/article/michael-fabianos-top-200-fantasy-players-for-2015?campaign=tw-nf-sf12525655-sf12525655

Michael Fabiano's Top 200 fantasy players for 2015
By Michael Fabiano NFL.com
NFL Media Senior fantasy analyst
Published: Aug. 24, 2015 at 04:11 p.m

Top 200

1. Le'Veon Bell, Steelers (RB1) 
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (RB2) 
3. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (RB3) 
4. Eddie Lacy, Packers (RB4) 
5. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks (RB5) 
6. Matt Forte, Bears (RB6) 
7. Antonio Brown, Steelers (WR1) 
8. Julio Jones, Falcons (WR2) 
9. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos (WR3) 
10. Calvin Johnson, Lions (WR4) 

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About half of the top ten names did not pan out and it does not get better as you look down the remainder of both lists.

Here is one early ranking for 2016 to compare to the above 2015 list, only including top ten names, go to link for full list.  

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http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000635698/article/michael-fabianos-top-200-fantasy-players-for-2016

Michael Fabiano's Top 200 fantasy players for 2016

By Michael Fabiano NFL.com
NFL Media Senior fantasy analyst
Published: Feb. 11, 2016 at 03:32 p.m

Top 200

1. Le'Veon Bell, Steelers (RB1) 
2. Todd Gurley, Rams (RB2) 
3. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (RB3) 
4. Antonio Brown, Steelers (WR1) 
5. Julio Jones, Falcons (WR2) 
6. Odell Beckham Jr., Giants (WR3) 
7. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (TE1) 
8. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (WR4) 
9. Devonta Freeman, Falcons (RB4) 
10. David Johnson, Cardinals (RB5) 

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The ten names listed above seems reasonable at this time but we saw that at least half the names listed in late August did not pan out.  

I think one lesson is, opportunity.

We know that some or many of the names that we think will be top fantasy players will not live up to expectations so that equals opportunity.

What lesson do you see?

 

[tangfoot]

We know that some or many of the names that we think will be top fantasy players will not live up to expectations so that equals opportunity.

What lesson do you see?

I only see two players that did "not live up to expectations", and that was Lacy and D. Thomas (and Thomas still finished as a WR1).  Everyone else failed due to injury.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I only see two players that did "not live up to expectations", and that was Lacy and D. Thomas (and Thomas still finished as a WR1).  Everyone else failed due to injury.

 2015 lists from late August and the top ten at the end of the season in our league.

Final top-ten non QBS 

1.Antonio Brown, Pit WR        
2. Devonta Freeman, Atl RB        
3. Julio Jones, Atl WR        
4. Brandon Marshall, NYJ WR        
5. Adrian Peterson, Min RB        
6. Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR    
7. Allen Robinson, Jax WR        
8. DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR        
9. Doug Martin, TB RB        
10. Doug Baldwin, Sea WR

This is only a small portion.  It is easier to identify the top players but we know that lists get less accurate as they continue.

Each list only correctly identified 3 of the top-10 players in our league.  

That means 7 of 10 players were not expected to be top-ten fantasy players which equals opportunity to me.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

2015 was the year of the injury. Everyone gets a mulligan

 

[Bruno2]

The only thing to learn, is every year is a crap shoot for the most part. Most people who are good at FF are able to determine players on the decline and avoid them, and draft players on the rise. For example, who knew Latavius Murray woud have a better season than DeMarco Murray? Nobody knew for sure in August but those who do their homework and were willing to pass on D. Murray for someone else, say Antonio Brown and draft L. Murray in later rounds probably did better. Injuries and suspensions are a larger factor now more than ever with the new concussion protocols and players getting suspended more often and for longer periods of time than in the past. So basically since FF exploded with the Internet group-think has pretty much taken all the fun out of it. Those who don't bother with others peoples'  lists feel more gratified when they win their league . But that's another topic...

 

[-CE-]

The consensus from all the lists was basically about 30% right with Peterson, Brown and Julio being the only guys you would have been relatively happy with.

 

[Otis]

Rankings are usually terrible.  But I will say, there was one FBG, I don't recall who, who included a comment on David Johnson in the rookie draft rankings (you know, that feature where you can mouseover the ranking given by that Footballguy, and it gives you his comments on the player?), and it said something like "May be the most talented running back in this draft."  It was split second decision time there on draft day, and it was reading that writeup that sealed it for me.  Boy was that guy right.  Wish I could find the preason rookie rankings from last year with that comment...

So thank you, whomever that was (may have been Jason Wood).

 

[Borden]

This seems like just being negative for the sake of being negative. Julio, Brown and AP were all hits. Dez, Charles, Forte, Bell and Lynch all got hurt. Lacy was a miss but that whole GB offense was a miss. DT was a miss that maybe should've been a bit more expected because I think we saw at the end of 2014 that Manning was on his last leg.  Gronk had 72/1176/11 (Against all pass catchers, Gronk finished with the 12th most yards and tied for 7th in TDs) and it's his positional advantage that makes him a top 10 pick. Calvin seems to be the guy that someone "when out on a limb" / broke consensus and that was a miss.

As far as guys that actually finished in the top 10, only Freeman and Baldwin seem to be the guys no one saw coming. 

The other thing that you have to take into consideration is that these rankings most of the time aren't purely a "I think these guys will finish in this order" list. Backs that aren't sharing much of the workload were ranked higher because in theory you could find more help at WR in later rounds than you could at RB, in theory. This of course is also a reason to have Gronk at in the Top 10 since, in theory, he provides you with a considerable advantage at a position.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

The only thing to learn, is every year is a crap shoot for the most part. Most people who are good at FF are able to determine players on the decline and avoid them, and draft players on the rise. For example, who knew Latavius Murray woud have a better season than DeMarco Murray? Nobody knew for sure in August but those who do their homework and were willing to pass on D. Murray for someone else, say Antonio Brown and draft L. Murray in later rounds probably did better. Injuries and suspensions are a larger factor now more than ever with the new concussion protocols and players getting suspended more often and for longer periods of time than in the past. So basically since FF exploded with the Internet group-think has pretty much taken all the fun out of it. Those who don't bother with others peoples'  lists feel more gratified when they win their league . But that's another topic...

Some salient points.

- Odds are not good that lists will be accurate

- Fantasy players tend to follow consensus

- Do homework and don't follow consensus

- Ability to decern many factors will be able to determine which players may decline or fall from consensus rankings and possibly rise in rankings

All valid points.

This seems like just being negative for the sake of being negative. Julio, Brown and AP were all hits. Dez, Charles, Forte, Bell and Lynch all got hurt. Lacy was a miss but that whole GB offense was a miss. DT was a miss that maybe should've been a bit more expected because I think we saw at the end of 2014 that Manning was on his last leg.  Gronk had 72/1176/11 (Against all pass catchers, Gronk finished with the 12th most yards and tied for 7th in TDs) and it's his positional advantage that makes him a top 10 pick. Calvin seems to be the guy that someone "when out on a limb" / broke consensus and that was a miss.

As far as guys that actually finished in the top 10, only Freeman and Baldwin seem to be the guys no one saw coming. 

The other thing that you have to take into consideration is that these rankings most of the time aren't purely a "I think these guys will finish in this order" list. Backs that aren't sharing much of the workload were ranked higher because in theory you could find more help at WR in later rounds than you could at RB, in theory. This of course is also a reason to have Gronk at in the Top 10 since, in theory, he provides you with a considerable advantage at a position.

Nothing negative at all about my opening post.  I said the intent was to learn lessons and my lesson was 'opportunity' which is not negative.

Valid point.

- Injury is the primary reason why top rated players fall

I would include not only Freeman and Baldwin as unseen entries into top-ten fantasy finishes but would have to include WR Brandon Marshall since few had him finishing in the top-ten since they panned the Jets QB situation and weren't sure about that offense in general and I don't recall any lists showing RB Doug Martin having a top-ten fantasy season.  So that would make 4 of 10 'wild cards' making the list over only 3 of 10 players actually finishing where they were ranked in the preseason.

Also solid comments, especially about Gronk's unique positional value but that is a one-off sort of value where you either are in a position to draft him where he provides that value or aren't and only one team will be in that position in a draft.  Some team might over draft him where others might get even value but most who draft him will gain a positional point value.

A couple of lessons can be gleaned.

- If you built a solid roster and think that are sitting pretty because you believe your team is loaded based on consensus ranking lists you may hold a false sense of security

- Make contingency plans to replace injured starters

- Try to figure out any patterns that may have determined past 'wild cards' who finished with top fantasy production 

 

[Deamon]

The only thing to learn, is every year is a crap shoot for the most part. Most people who are good at FF are able to determine players on the decline and avoid them, and draft players on the rise. For example, who knew Latavius Murray woud have a better season than DeMarco Murray? Nobody knew for sure in August but those who do their homework and were willing to pass on D. Murray for someone else, say Antonio Brown and draft L. Murray in later rounds probably did better. Injuries and suspensions are a larger factor now more than ever with the new concussion protocols and players getting suspended more often and for longer periods of time than in the past. So basically since FF exploded with the Internet group-think has pretty much taken all the fun out of it. Those who don't bother with others peoples'  lists feel more gratified when they win their league . But that's another topic...

You don't need to do your homework to do this.  Murray wasn't ranked above Brown ANYWHERE.

 

[Slider]

It's just like draft sites. Everyone kind of goes with the norm and it's all marketing after that. Pick your favorite and hope you get lucky.

 

[MattFancy]

I only see two players that did "not live up to expectations", and that was Lacy and D. Thomas (and Thomas still finished as a WR1).  Everyone else failed due to injury.

Yeah it's hard to fault guys that had Bell & Charles rated so high. Lynch was going to be risky because of his age, but being injured most of the year didn't help him either. I don't think we were expecting Dez to miss a good chunk of the season either. Sure, Lacy was a bust, but I don't think anyone saw that disaster of a season coming from him. And the strange part was that his YPC were on par with his 2014 season. He just wasn't given as many chances.

 

[iamkoza]

last year was just brutal at the RB position mostly due to injury.... most of your pre-season top WR's came through save Dez

i've made it a rule to not draft any wr,te,rb that are over the age of 28 unless I am getting them at way below their pre-draft value

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I only see two players that did "not live up to expectations", and that was Lacy and D. Thomas (and Thomas still finished as a WR1).  Everyone else failed due to injury.

Lesson: Don't draft players that will get injured.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Calvin seems to be the guy that someone "when out on a limb" / broke consensus and that was a miss.

Calvin finished as WR13 so it's hard to even call that a miss.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Yeah it's hard to fault guys that had Bell & Charles rated so high. Lynch was going to be risky because of his age, but being injured most of the year didn't help him either. I don't think we were expecting Dez to miss a good chunk of the season either. Sure, Lacy was a bust, but I don't think anyone saw that disaster of a season coming from him. And the strange part was that his YPC were on par with his 2014 season. He just wasn't given as many chances.

Not faulting anyone who makes a reasonable preseason list but if we see that the top-ten wound up looking like at the end of the season and compare to what the consensus top-ten lists looked like at the beginning of the season then what can we learn?  

Look at the top-ten list at the end of the season.

1.Antonio Brown, Pit WR        2. Devonta Freeman, Atl RB        3. Julio Jones, Atl WR        4. Brandon Marshall, NYJ WR        5. Adrian Peterson, Min RB        6. Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR    7. Allen Robinson, Jax WR        8. DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR        9. Doug Martin, TB RB        10. Doug Baldwin, Sea WR

I think the focus should be on the players who were not considered top-ten prospects when looking at ADP lists for this year.

Here is MFL APD for 2016 for all leagues/all systems so its generic.  I went down to the 27th ranked player since RB Doug Martin made the top-ten for 2015.

BOLD = Players who finished top-ten last year and where they rank this year

BLUE = players who were ranked top-ten last year and did not finish but are ranked high this year

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2016/adp?IS_KEEPER=3

1.    Brown, Antonio PIT WR
2.    Beckham, Odell NYG WR
3.    Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB
4.    Jones, Julio ATL WR
5.    Gurley, Todd RAM RB    
6.    Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
7.    Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE
8.    Johnson, David ARI RB
9.    Robinson, Allen JAC WR
10.    Bryant, Dez DAL WR
11.    Peterson, Adrian MIN RB    
12.    Freeman, Devonta ATL RB    
13.    Green, A.J. CIN WR    
14.    Charles, Jamaal KCC RB
15.    Evans, Mike TBB WR
16.    Allen, Keenan SDC WR
17.    Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR
18.    Watkins, Sammy BUF WR    
19.    Cooper, Amari OAK WR    
20.    Nelson, Jordy GBP WR    
21.    Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR
22.    Marshall, Brandon NYJ WR    
23.    Rawls, Thomas SEA RB    
24.    Miller, Lamar MIA RB    
25.    Cooks, Brandin NOS WR    
26.    Ingram, Mark NOS RB    
27.    Martin, Doug TBB RB

(WR Doug Baldwin didn't make the parameters of the ADP list)

Players who made top-ten lists last year that are not ranked in the top-27 this year:

4. Eddie Lacy, Packers (RB4) 
5. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks (RB5) 
6. Matt Forte, Bears (RB6) 
10. Calvin Johnson, Lions (WR4) 
 

 

[Soulfly3]

FBG staff pissed in my mouth for drafting Carson Palmer as my QB in every league I was in.

He was ranked in the 20s for QBs... 

something along the lines of "a poor backup option"... except he was my starter

 

[Borden]

Not faulting anyone who makes a reasonable preseason list but if we see that the top-ten wound up looking like at the end of the season and compare to what the consensus top-ten lists looked like at the beginning of the season then what can we learn?  

Look at the top-ten list at the end of the season.

1.Antonio Brown, Pit WR        2. Devonta Freeman, Atl RB        3. Julio Jones, Atl WR        4. Brandon Marshall, NYJ WR        5. Adrian Peterson, Min RB        6. Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR    7. Allen Robinson, Jax WR        8. DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR        9. Doug Martin, TB RB        10. Doug Baldwin, Sea WR

I think the focus should be on the players who were not considered top-ten prospects when looking at ADP lists for this year.

Here is MFL APD for 2016 for all leagues/all systems so its generic.  I went down to the 27th ranked player since RB Doug Martin made the top-ten for 2015.

BOLD = Players who finished top-ten last year and where they rank this year

BLUE = players who were ranked top-ten last year and did not finish but are ranked high this year

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2016/adp?IS_KEEPER=3

1.    Brown, Antonio PIT WR
2.    Beckham, Odell NYG WR
3.    Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB
4.    Jones, Julio ATL WR
5.    Gurley, Todd RAM RB    
6.    Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
7.    Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE
8.    Johnson, David ARI RB
9.    Robinson, Allen JAC WR
10.    Bryant, Dez DAL WR
11.    Peterson, Adrian MIN RB    
12.    Freeman, Devonta ATL RB    
13.    Green, A.J. CIN WR    
14.    Charles, Jamaal KCC RB
15.    Evans, Mike TBB WR
16.    Allen, Keenan SDC WR
17.    Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR
18.    Watkins, Sammy BUF WR    
19.    Cooper, Amari OAK WR    
20.    Nelson, Jordy GBP WR    
21.    Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR
22.    Marshall, Brandon NYJ WR    
23.    Rawls, Thomas SEA RB    
24.    Miller, Lamar MIA RB    
25.    Cooks, Brandin NOS WR    
26.    Ingram, Mark NOS RB    
27.    Martin, Doug TBB RB

(WR Doug Baldwin didn't make the parameters of the ADP list)

Players who made top-ten lists last year that are not ranked in the top-27 this year:

4. Eddie Lacy, Packers (RB4) 
5. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks (RB5) 
6. Matt Forte, Bears (RB6) 
10. Calvin Johnson, Lions (WR4) 
 

I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. 

Honestly - I'm not trying to bash the OP because anything is worth discussing or exploring during the offseason - but I really don't think there's any lessons to be learned here. Most people know that half the rankings are usually wrong - and most of the time injuries have a lot to do with it.

I guess the main lesson is that "bashing" anyone's rankings is probably a poor idea - as no one really knows what will happen, we can only make educated guesses.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. 

Well, I think if you want to learn from past top-ten lists that instead of only looking  at the preseason, look at the actual end-of-season results and compare them to lists going forward.

Who rose to finish in the top-ten?

Where  do they currently rank?

Who dropped off?

All sorts  of questions but then once you break it down ask what you can learn.

Some  people assume simple conclusions like, oh he is making fun of someone or trying to place blame.  No.  Not at all.  

The time to look back at lists is now when people are not so emotional because right before a season owners have done drafts and are vested in certain players so now is a good time to look at those lists.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I think that this years results versus the pre-seasons rankings reinforced a building block of my personal draft strategy.   In general--I try to target elite wr's early as I find them to be less injury prone--and aside from Baldwin--I generally find the WR rankings to be a bit more consistent and reliable. Now as I go into the mid and later rounds--I actually put the emphasis on players upsides/ceilings more than I do their floors.   This past season was pretty successful for me--and I think this strategy had a lot to do with it.  

 

[Bigboy10182000]

The lesson seems somewhat simple.  These rankings aren't the bible and in many, many cases that's how they're discussed.

It's good work by the OP and definitely good reading IMO.  I'd be interested to see what the accuracy ratings are and how these comp over a longer period of time as well.  So get on that, Bracie!

 

[Borden]

I don't think in the end we will find anything fruitful. If you want to know about these two specific experts I'd say to just Fantasy Pros or whatever the website is that tracks projection accuracy. 

If you are looking for a trend I'd say to use Fanasty Pros blended rankings. Use as many years back as seems reasonable then cross reference those rankings with actual year end standings. Make notes of players that were injured and where the actual top end guys were originally projected. There's more I'm sure but I'm not much of a math guy. Trying to draw a solid conclusion from 2 sets of rankings over 1 season is just too small of a sample size, IMO.

 

[FUBAR]

I'd love to find a key here but at least four of the surprise players didn't even have great situations as seen in august. 

Freeman?  Atlanta looked okay but he wasn't a sure starter and their offense seemed pass heavy. 

Marshall?  Bad qb situation. 

A rob?  We saw talent but unproven qb and a bad team. 

Hopkins?  Again good talent but bad qb.

I guess my philosophy of taking receivers with good QBs isn't really working, except Baldwin.

 

[spider321]

I'd love to find a key here but at least four of the surprise players didn't even have great situations as seen in august. 

Freeman?  Atlanta looked okay but he wasn't a sure starter and their offense seemed pass heavy. 

Marshall?  Bad qb situation. 

AR15?  We saw talent but unproven qb and a bad team. 

Hopkins?  Again good talent but bad qb.

I guess my philosophy of taking receivers with good QBs isn't really working, except Baldwin.

Fixed

 

[3nOut]

Bracie, I think you may be over-thinking this and as stated before, there may not be anything to glean here. You shouldn't be focusing only on the top 10. The answer to why some players are unexpectedly in the top 10 may be simply because some of the players ranked above them got injured. If they had not, they may have ended up in the top ten as predicted. Perhaps you should just analyze WHY certain players outperformed their ranking and if the situation bears them repeating their previous year's stats. 

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I think that this years results versus the pre-seasons rankings reinforced a building block of my personal draft strategy.   In general--I try to target elite wr's early as I find them to be less injury prone--and aside from Baldwin--I generally find the WR rankings to be a bit more consistent and reliable. Now as I go into the mid and later rounds--I actually put the emphasis on players upsides/ceilings more than I do their floors.   This past season was pretty successful for me--and I think this strategy had a lot to do with it.  

Hey jvdesigns2002, I shifted my dynasty draft philosophy to emphasizing WRs two years ago and it has been successful.  You even phrased it correctly by saying 'in general' because each draft is different.  Two years ago it was reported to be a deep WR draft.  Last year was supposed to be a deep RB draft so last year I attempted to shift my draft emphasis and go heavy at the RB position but still wound up taking a WR with my top pick.  Back on point of building a team with elite WRs.

I did an in-depth study of many drafts to try and figure out the sort of hit rates to find an 'elite' WR.  No surprise, a wide majority, nearly all, of the 'elite' fantasy WRs were selected in the first round.  More digging found that at the end of the first round and high in the second round, hit rates dropped off precipitously after the first few picks of the second round.  I then tried breaking out first round WRs to see if there was a 'sweet spot' but I did not find one, but I found that if you got one of the top-three WRs taken in the first round the 'hit-rates' were about the same.  It didn't matter where in the first so long as you got one of them but that really wasn't useful to me because it didn't show a significant advantage so I kept digging and found that if you could take two of the top-three WRs that you were almost guaranteed to land at least one would turn into an 'elite' fantasy WR.  

I needed to find two WRs in that draft and found a second tier for WRs who were selected in the first round who were not one of the top-three and those WRs who were projected to go in the firs round but dropped into the top of the second round, they had 'ok' hit rates if you could also draft two of them.

I wound up taking four WRs in that draft.  One is already producing 'elite' numbers.  Two are ranked in the top twenty-five fantasy players. 

Last year's draft was supposed to be deep at RB so I wanted to go heavy at RB but had an 'elite' WR prospect fall into my lap at the bottom of the first round so I had to take him and he is ranked  high on many lists.  

I wanted to check out where my guys rank so I went back to look at the lists of top rated players and saw that at least half of them did not produce as anticipated.  Last year I did not bother to pick up a WR Doug Baldwin because I felt comfortable with my WRs and he out-produced all but one of them.  I wasn't as comfortable with my RBs and picked up one of the top RBs who busted out of nowhere.  

So I think there are things to learn from rankings especially if you compare the end-of-year results to preseason rankings.  You noted the benefit of building a team with 'elite' WRs and I agree.  Build a base of 'elite' WRs and use the wire to try and find RBs who might get an opportunity should a starting RB go down because they get injured more frequently and have shorter NFL shelf lives.  

 

[Spike]

I wonder, historically, what the hit rate is for RBs who have changed teams.  DeMarco Murray being the latest example of a failure in that regard.

 

[FUBAR]

I wonder, historically, what the hit rate is for RBs who have changed teams.  DeMarco Murray being the latest example of a failure in that regard.

D-Will, McFadden, Frank Gore, and McCoy (sort of) would be examples of successes.  Only DWill was a home run but the others were FF startable when healthy.

 

[stbugs]

All three of my leagues are PPR and while I'm not a big $$$ FF guy, I've always been a big WR guy. Any time I have a flex spot, I go heavier WR. One of my leagues is no starting TE so I always grab TEs on waivers like Walker and Ertz (end of season) last year. If you don't start TEs the guys just below the Gronk and Graham (pre-2015) layer are cheap and usually available on waivers. Injuries hurt me in 2 leagues (my best team included), but I won the third league with my one keeper (OBJ, 1 keeper, almost all teams had top guys), my first two picks (Julio and Cooks) and a waiver guy (Walker). Having the most points in the league with Fitz/Taylor, Ivory and Bernard at QB and RBs means your WRs/Flex performed. 

 

[kawaihae]

Drafts are a crap shoot. 

Been in a league for a long time and there's two guys who always do well, year after year. I looked back at their drafts over the past years and came to the conclusion that their drafts are no better than anyone else in the league,  on average. Lots of hits and misses. 

It may seem obvious to some, but my conclusion is that you win and lose your season with the moves you make during the season, not in your draft. So in a world of limited time and resources, i probably used to devote 50/50 toward my time and thinking going between drafts and in -season moves.  But now it's probably 10% to 90% in favor of in season moves. That was a subtle mind shift for me that's paid off well. 

 

[tangfoot]

D-Will, McFadden, Frank Gore, and McCoy (sort of) would be examples of successes.  Only DWill was a home run but the others were FF startable when healthy.

Lynch, Reggie Bush