Lynch or Chris Johnson the rest of the way? (1 Viewer)

[Judge Smails]

Both are on a bye this week so makes trades possible.

Johnson

Bye

@ Jacksonville

Houston

Indy

Jets

@ Packers

Lynch

Bye

@ Dolphins

@ Bears

Cardinals

@ Bills (Toronto)

49rs

Johnson's only tough matchup is Houston, who he shredded earlier. Speed can usually beat tough run defenses anyway. Lynch faces Dolphins, Bears and 49rs. Granted, he did do well vs. 49rs earlier on the road. Biggest question is run D's like the Dolphins and Bears can be tough vs. straight ahead types, and the Seahawks struggle on the road anyway. I've ridden Marshawn all year, but thinking Johnson may be the better play going forward. Which one would you roll with?

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

Not a bad decision to have to make. CJ all day though. Always has been CJ, always will be CJ!

 

[Chaka]

There are a couple of reasons I prefer CJ.

1) He has one more home game than Marshawn

2) According to my league scoring (1 pt/15 yards rush/rec, 6 pts/TD rush/rec) the defenses CJ plays give up an average of 13.1 ppg to RBs (17, 8.2, 14.3, 15.1 & 11). The defenses Marshawn plays give up an average of 11.5 ppg to RBs (10.2, 8, 10.8, 21.7 & 7).

 

[meyerj31]

My, how quickly times change. Not 3 weeks ago you couldn't trade CJ for Pitta, and now he's a consensus favorite over the #2 leading rusher in the NFL (whom is averaging 100.5 rushing yards per game).

Funny.

(I'll take Lynch.)

 

[Khy]

Regardless of the schedules, I think I'd still be able to put more trust into Lynch. He may not always have a monster game and his overall ceiling is capped to a certain extent (Meaning he isn't going to have one of those 17 for 220yds and 3TD games that Johnson can do). That said he's steady and someone that I know I can plug in and get the production from. Then you have Chris Johnson, who has look like both CJ2K and a soggy piece of bread this season. I can't stand guys that are that feast and famine. It's also just a different way I look at fantasy. I'd much rather plug in the guy that I know can get me 80+ yards a 50/50 shot at a TD and maybe 2-3 receptions over the guy who on his best day can get me 300 yards and 4 TDs but on his normal day gets 13 yards on 20 carries.

Lynch has proven to be a matchup proof RB. Since week 8 of last season he's had what... 2 bad games? Then you look at CJ who since week 8 of last year has had 10 duds in the same time frame?

 

[solorca]

I've been as guilty as anyone of doubting Marshawn Lynch over the years, even when he's been on my team. Week after week this year, I even played Demarco Murray and Darren Mcfadden over him, because I always expected him to have a bad game.

With that said, he is a beast and continues to perform at a really high level regardless of competition. I'd take him all day over Chris Johnson.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Lynnnnncchhhh.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Assuming it's PPR, CJ..easily. If not it's a wash and I'd be inclined the ride the dude with the easier schedule.

 

[dewmass]

Give me the higher floor that Lynch brings. Seattle will be fighting all the way for a wildcard and maybe even the division, Titans will be planning vacations and playing to not get hurt. Easy choice for me

 

[Sabertooth]

I like Lynch because of the reliability and that of those juicy matchups in 14 and 15. Also because he's one of the few backs that can take it for 100 against anyone. Opponents don't really matter to beast mode.

 

[solorca]

Assuming it's PPR, CJ..easily. If not it's a wash and I'd be inclined the ride the dude with the easier schedule.

Johnson has 10 more catches than lynch on the year, and only three more yards in the receiving game. I usually discount lynch a bit in ppr, but in this comparison, I dont think there is much separation in the receiving aspect of their game.I think the playoff matchup aspect is a bit overblown as well. Lynch gets Arizona (average at best), buffalo (terrible), and the 49ers (over 100 yards in his last two games against them), in the playoff weeks. Johnson gets the colts, jets, and packers. His schedule is slightly better, but I don't think it's significant.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Assuming it's PPR, CJ..easily. If not it's a wash and I'd be inclined the ride the dude with the easier schedule.

Johnson has 10 more catches than lynch on the year, and only three more yards in the receiving game. I usually discount lynch a bit in ppr, but in this comparison, I dont think there is much separation in the receiving aspect of their game.

Very true. For some reason I believed CJ had more receptions this year. Regardless, CJ has averaged 21.4 PPG over the past 5 weeks (PPR) compared to Lynch's 16.3. The fact that CJ isn't catching passes makes this stat all the more surprising. Five PPG on average is a very large gap. That kind of upside can be the determining factor in whether or not you win your playoffs.ETA: No RB other than Martin and Peterson has averaged more PPG over the past 5 weeks.

 

[stbugs]

My, how quickly times change. Not 3 weeks ago you couldn't trade CJ for Pitta, and now he's a consensus favorite over the #2 leading rusher in the NFL (whom is averaging 100.5 rushing yards per game). Funny.(I'll take Lynch.)

3 weeks? Come on. After week 3 was the only point in the season you could get CJ on the cheap. Week 4, he has 141 yards against Houston. In my PPR league from week 4 to 10 (note: bonus 3 points for 100 yards), CJ has 129 points even with a 1 point week 5. His other low is 12 points and 4 of the 7 weeks he has 20+. Lynch has 1 more 100 game (so 3 extra points in my league) and has 125 points. He has week lows of 6 and 9 and also 4 20+ point games.So, while you may say it is funny, in PPR leagues CJ since week 3 (i.e. 7 weeks ago) has been a little better and just as consistent as Lynch. Seeing as how CJ only has 10 more receptions than Lynch, even in non-PPR they have basically been the same the last 7 weeks.Given the info above about the schedules, I would think CJ may be the play. Also, CJ in the last 7 weeks has played Miami, Chicago, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Houston. Looking at Lynch, he played SF, Minnesota and New England. I might trust CJ even more seeing as his schedule appears to be getting better for the last 5 weeks (not counting week 17) whereas Lynch's looks a little worse.

 

[Chaka]

My, how quickly times change. Not 3 weeks ago you couldn't trade CJ for Pitta, and now he's a consensus favorite over the #2 leading rusher in the NFL (whom is averaging 100.5 rushing yards per game).

Funny.

(I'll take Lynch.)

No one is calling this a slam dunk. Since week 3 CJ has put up the same PPG as Lynch, it's a close call any way you slice it.Another thing I like about CJ is that he just put up two very nice games against top 5 run defenses. He has clearly shown that he is running hard. You can make the "take away the 80 yard TD" argument but a) you can't take it away and b) no back in the NFL is more likely to reel off one of those than CJ.

Lynch is a beast but his five big games came against the #23, #25, #18, #17 & #25 rush defenses in the league. He had an off game v the #6 rush D and has the #4, #5 & #7 rush D still to play, two of those in back-to-back cross country away games (@Chi & @ Mia). I know he can put up big numbers against anyone but I think with comparable talent you take the guy that has the easier path and that guy is CJ.

In Lynch's favor, he doesn't get pulled at the goal line and I agree with you that Seattle is more likely to be in contention late in the season than Tennessee.

Either way I think their numbers will be close over the next six weeks.

 

[machineo]

I don't like to make the "take away that big run" argument either, but it should have some relevance if they contribute to your point that his best days were against top 5 defenses. An 80 yard TD in the 4th quarter of a 39 point blowout in one, and 98 yards in the last 6 minutes of a 24 point blowout in the other.

Lynch has a scary week 15 matchup, but he put 100 on the 49ers in SF, playing at home, with playoffs possibly on the line. I wouldn't want the guy who's already had his effort questioned, in weeks where he knows his team isn't playing for anything.

 

[Qtip Callahan]

My argument for CJ is that Chris Palmer has pulled his head halfway out of his *ss and started calling better plays. Those formations last week against Miami looked much more varied and creative than the same old off tackle plays they ran over and over at the beginning of the season that weren't working. It's the same RB.

That being said, I'd say Lynch is the safer choice, but CJ has more upside. Russell Wilson continues to develop and that's good for Lynch in the tougher matchups.

Side comment on TN- the Titans have a lot of potential with that offense if Locker can stay healthy and they work on that o-line. Their d is brutal too, so from a fantasy perspective, lots of opportunity.

An emerging Kendall Wright, Kenny Britt getting healthier, underrated guys like Jared Cook and Nate Washington with CJ at HB- that's not bad.

 

[solorca]

Assuming it's PPR, CJ..easily. If not it's a wash and I'd be inclined the ride the dude with the easier schedule.

Johnson has 10 more catches than lynch on the year, and only three more yards in the receiving game. I usually discount lynch a bit in ppr, but in this comparison, I dont think there is much separation in the receiving aspect of their game.

Very true. For some reason I believed CJ had more receptions this year. Regardless, CJ has averaged 21.4 PPG over the past 5 weeks (PPR) compared to Lynch's 16.3. The fact that CJ isn't catching passes makes this stat all the more surprising. Five PPG on average is a very large gap. That kind of upside can be the determining factor in whether or not you win your playoffs.ETA: No RB other than Martin and Peterson has averaged more PPG over the past 5 weeks.

This is kind of a skewed stat because it includes Lynch's worst game of the season (5 weeks ago), and ignores Johnson's worst of the year (6 weeks ago). 5 weeks is a bit arbitrary. By comparison, over the past three weeks, Lynch is averaging 21.223 while Johnson is averaging 18.867. Basically, Johnson's huge game in week 7 skews the stats. In any comparison that doesn't include that specific week, Lynch has outperformed him on average.That really is the story with Johnson anyway. He has more potential to put up a massive game, but Lynch is more likely to put up a solid game week after week. It's also worth noting that Lynch hasn't had a big 2 TD game yet this season, so he could easily have a massive game or two up his sleeves.

 

[donkshow]

My, how quickly times change. Not 3 weeks ago you couldn't trade CJ for Pitta, and now he's a consensus favorite over the #2 leading rusher in the NFL (whom is averaging 100.5 rushing yards per game). Funny.(I'll take Lynch.)

It's been longer than 3 weeks.

 

[Banger]

It's like deciding between the hot blond or the hot brunette. Love em both but if I could choose either one it would be largely because of the schedule. If lynch had cj's schedule it would be lynch by a mile.

 

[Chaka]

But you can't win without taking a few risks. I think if you have another top 5 back, you roll CJ2K for his homerun ability. I think though if you are hoping to hit two homeruns with CJ2K and some other guy you hope will break out late season, then I think it's a mistake. Build a base of attack first with stability, then go send out your pirates to rape and pillage.

I think this is a great point Gordo.