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M. Vick....QB....STEAL OF YOUR DRAFT! (1 Viewer)

E

eoMMan

Footballguy
First and foremost.....

<------ fantasy football stud right here

I think Michael Vick, QB of the Philadelphia Eagles, will be the steal of many people's fantasy football drafts this year. I am seeing him consistently ranked about #15 (and lower) on a lot of QB rank sheets. This is just insane! Here are the pros and cons...

Pros:

1. Still a fantastic athlete. He proved this by beating out Nick Foles in preseason. The guy is still definitely talented. He can throw deep, take off and run for many yards, etc.

2. Great fit for Chip Kelly's new offensive scheme. He won't be running every play but will definitely get his share of rushing yards in this offense. And Chip Kelly's uptempo offense insures that more plays will be ran.....more plays = more chances for more fantasy points.

3. The Eagles offensive line will be much better this year (high draft pick used on tackle Lane Johnson, Jason Peters is back, the center Jason Kelce is healthy again too, etc.). He definitely won't have the kind of pressure on him that he had most of last year.

4. The Eagles defense looks terrible and they will be forced to score points. I can foresee many games where the total score of both teams will be over 50.

Cons:

1. Still has Foles around. No one is sure how short the leash is if Vick struggles in a couple of games.

2. Lost WR Maclin. He still has weapons win DJackson and McCoy, but will need another receiver to STEP UP.

3. Injury risk. Some people here will give me poo for this but I am in the camp that some players are just more injury prone than others. Vick is one of those guys. He has a greater chance of getting hurt at some point this year.

Anyway, I really think Vick has a chance to be a top 5 QB this year and can be drafted outside the top 12 QB's (might not want to wait until #15 to be safe). Also, it's a good idea to draft another QB who's not ranked too far down from Vick (think Eli Manning, C. Palmer, J. Freeman, etc.) just as a back-up in case the doo doo hits the fan.

I HOPE EVERYONE HAS A FANTASTIC FOOTBALL SEASON AND GOD BLESS!!!!! HAVE FUN!!!!!

 
Not the running threat he once was. He's a little underrated, but not a lot.

:hawkscreech:

 
Vick is a great value and makes the QB group even deeper. However, I don't think we can call him steal of the draft due to the depth at QB.

 
Vick has good value, but also a greater chance of getting injured in the new offense. I think as long as he can stay healthy he'll put up some nice numbers for someone.

 
Also now that he's named the starter and most drafts are next weekend, the secret will be out. Provided he stays healthy for Jax, his ADP will rise several rounds by next weekend. Getting him in the 12th could've been a steal. Having to reach in the 7, 8 or 9 range is much riskier.

 
I think he's a steal but you can't have him as your #1 qb. I like the strategy of playing qbbc with him. I don't like wasting an 8th rounder on him if you already drafted an elite guy, but someone like luck/wilson in the 7th and Vick in the 8th leaves you pretty set at qb, while getting to use your top 6 rounds on RB RB RB WR WR TE

 
I don't like the bad defense argument for Vick. If true I think he's in deep doodoo. Teams can tee off on him or force mistakes. A defense up a couple scores plays into a fragile injury prone player's weaknesses.

 
I am getting him in every league I can....just have a strong back up plan....u cannot resist the upside. And there is no big loss if the 12th round pick does not work out.

 
That's a pretty ironic avatar you got there OP..

I have no problem with playing QB carousel with Vick and Manning/Dalton/Cutler/insert whom ever you may choose. The fact that he's sitting outside of the top 12 is a testament to how deep the QB pool is this year.

 
The thing is, he's outside the top 12 because no one knew who the starter would be.

If you're drafting today then great, but if you're not drafting for a week or two then his ADP will rise and you'll have to take him in the 7th/8th round as the QB 11/12. So we can all scream 'GREAT VALUE' now, but that'll correct itself pretty quickly.

The real value will be from whichever of the current top 12 guys he pushes down a round or two. I was planning on taking Luck or Romo (current QB 11/12 in most drafts) in the 7th round. If Vick rising bumps one of them out of the top 12 and into the 9th round, then that's the big value play here.

 
I don't see it. Chip Kelly's up tempo offense doesn't mean they throw the ball a lot. In theory they will be running the ball a lot and I would bet most of that is McCoy/Brown and not brittle Vick. And when they do throw, I don't think it'll be long bombs to his only legit WR. It'll be short passes to the plethora of TEs they have.

What would help a lot would be some projections. I don't see how you can project him for SotD numbers, but I'd love to see you try.

 
I don't see it either. Vick's a turnover machine. Maybe it's the tiny hands. Him and Tony Romo have sub 9 inch hands. Probably it's his poor decision making. My bet is that Chip Kelly gets frustrated in the first third of the season and benches him. Right now, Vick is saying all the right things and the honeymoon period is full swing. But it won't last. No QB keeps his job consistently throwing it up for grabs or fumbling it away. It will be either an inevitable injury or a coaches decision that will have him on the bench sooner than later. As a depth pick, carrying him on your roster is a waste. As a starter, enjoy him while you can.

 
The way to do it is get Vick to play him until it lasts with a solid back up plan in place. I doubt Vick will last all year too......that D is atrocious and when they are 2-6, the fans will be screaming to find out what Barkley or even Folds can do

 
eoMMan said:
Pros:1. Still a fantastic athlete. He proved this by beating out Nick Foles in preseason. The guy is still definitely talented. He can throw deep, take off and run for many yards, etc.
Click to expand...
The "etc." is the problem, because there is none.

That said, I'm also very high on Vick as a fantasy option this year:

When he was on the field, he was a top-ten quarterback last season when you adjust for strength of schedule. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_rearview-qb2013

 
This thread fits perfectly with one of my favorite poker axioms....

.... spread maximum disinformation to give you an advantage.

 
The only stealing Vick does/did, was stealing the lives of countless beautiful dogs.

He can eat a phallus.

 
If he has another great game this weekend, he won't be the steal of the draft because his ADP is going to skyrocket. The first game, people dismissed. The second game, people noticed and starting thinking 'what if'. If he lights it up this weekend, he's going to go from QB13 to up around QB6.

 
Djax and McCoy are great players but aren't gonna stretch the field on anybody. Vicks y/a last season was 6.7, which blows. Career is 7.0, which is subpar.

He hasn't played a full season since he got out of prison. Last season for the first 8 weeks he was healthy, he was QB8, which is nice, but a good chunk of that came from running. He had 10 tds passing and 9 ints in that stretch.

As far as the offense, up tempo should help him wear down the defense and open up some running lanes, but Vick has never been known for his quick reads. Up tempo 3 and out doesnt wear anybody down but the OC's sanity.

Is he valuable where he's drafted? Yeeessss...ish. He's a QB2 with the ceiling of being a low to middling QB1 and the floor of being on the sideline by mid-season. QBBC? Ok, if you're into that, but not as the lead QB I think.

I disagree that this is a 'deep' QB season. Its deep in that there is a wide 2nd tier after the studs, but the drop off in potential between about QB10 and lower is severe. IE- there arent 3 studs and then 15 guys you can live with. There are 5 studs and 4 or 5 more guys with stud potential, then everybody else. That leaves the last couple franchises to take their QBs without a chair, even if they plan on QBBC. You could have 10 Qbs on your roster and you wont likely pick one any given week that will consistenly outperform Luck or Stafford regardless of their matchup... and the Luck/Stafford franchise didn't spend high picks on QBs either.

I think its a good year to wait on a QB... but I think its a bad year to wait too long.

 
mbuehner said:
Djax and McCoy are great players but aren't gonna stretch the field on anybody. Vicks y/a last season was 6.7, which blows. Career is 7.0, which is subpar.

He hasn't played a full season since he got out of prison. Last season for the first 8 weeks he was healthy, he was QB8, which is nice, but a good chunk of that came from running. He had 10 tds passing and 9 ints in that stretch.

As far as the offense, up tempo should help him wear down the defense and open up some running lanes, but Vick has never been known for his quick reads. Up tempo 3 and out doesnt wear anybody down but the OC's sanity.

Is he valuable where he's drafted? Yeeessss...ish. He's a QB2 with the ceiling of being a low to middling QB1 and the floor of being on the sideline by mid-season. QBBC? Ok, if you're into that, but not as the lead QB I think.

I disagree that this is a 'deep' QB season. Its deep in that there is a wide 2nd tier after the studs, but the drop off in potential between about QB10 and lower is severe. IE- there arent 3 studs and then 15 guys you can live with. There are 5 studs and 4 or 5 more guys with stud potential, then everybody else. That leaves the last couple franchises to take their QBs without a chair, even if they plan on QBBC. You could have 10 Qbs on your roster and you wont likely pick one any given week that will consistenly outperform Luck or Stafford regardless of their matchup... and the Luck/Stafford franchise didn't spend high picks on QBs either.

I think its a good year to wait on a QB... but I think its a bad year to wait too long.
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I really agree with this. After those ten or so though, if you are looking to strike gold, there are worse places to look than with Vick.

 
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Just saw an interesting stat on the Eagles operating out of the shotgun significantly more than any other NFL team this preseason.

Makes sense to put Vick in the gun to help him scan over the D. Another plus is a smaller QB who gets to stand back has a better view that is less obscured rather than having him stand directly behind taller O-Linemen, additionally putting him out in space allows a QB with speed more time to avoid pressure that he sees coming at him.

Pro Football Focus‏@PFF8h

Through two games the Eagles have run shotgun on 93% of their snaps. The Lions are 2nd at a mere 60%.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Just saw an interesting stat on the Eagles operating out of the shotgun significantly more than any other NFL team this preseason.

Makes sense to put Vick in the gun to help him scan over the D. Another plus is a smaller QB who gets to stand back has a better view that is less obscured rather than having him stand directly behind taller O-Linemen, additionally putting him out in space allows a QB with speed more time to avoid pressure that he sees coming at him.

Pro Football Focus‏@PFF8h

Through two games the Eagles have run shotgun on 93% of their snaps. The Lions are 2nd at a mere 60%.
Click to expand...
I read that as Vick is going to take some hard shots this year

 
pantherclub said:
Bracie Smathers said:
Just saw an interesting stat on the Eagles operating out of the shotgun significantly more than any other NFL team this preseason.

Makes sense to put Vick in the gun to help him scan over the D. Another plus is a smaller QB who gets to stand back has a better view that is less obscured rather than having him stand directly behind taller O-Linemen, additionally putting him out in space allows a QB with speed more time to avoid pressure that he sees coming at him.

Pro Football Focus‏@PFF8h

Through two games the Eagles have run shotgun on 93% of their snaps. The Lions are 2nd at a mere 60%.
Click to expand...
I read that as Vick is going to take some hard shots this year
Click to expand...
Haven't got a clue how you read shotgun = sacks.

Suggestion, Hooked on Phonics.

 
If he is going to be passing that much and setting up in the shotgun then its only realistic to think he is going to be more likely to get hit more then average. Didnt Spurrier try this with the Skins and ruined some qb?

 
pantherclub said:
If he is going to be passing that much and setting up in the shotgun then its only realistic to think he is going to be more likely to get hit more then average. Didnt Spurrier try this with the Skins and ruined some qb?
Click to expand...
OK, now I read you.

Shotgun has evolved into the Pistol where the RB is lined up directly behind the QB, add in the zone-read portion of Kelly's offense and that lineup doesn't automatically equate into a passing play.

I'm sure the Eagles didn't pass 93% of the time this preseason even that they lined up in the gun.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
pantherclub said:
If he is going to be passing that much and setting up in the shotgun then its only realistic to think he is going to be more likely to get hit more then average. Didnt Spurrier try this with the Skins and ruined some qb?
Click to expand...
OK, now I read you.

Shotgun has evolved into the Pistol where the RB is lined up directly behind the QB, add in the zone-read portion of Kelly's offense and that lineup doesn't automatically equate into a passing play.

I'm sure the Eagles didn't pass 93% of the time this preseason even that they lined up in the gun.
Click to expand...
This is correct. And Kelly's 'plan' is for Vick to make his read in a few seconds and hand off, run, or dump a short pass. Repeatedly doing this is supposed to eventually open it up for a deep ball. Sounds good on paper and they've been executing well so far in preseason, but we all know that it only takes one hit for Vick to be out. I hope he can avoid taking those hard shots.

 
My impression of Vick is that he doesn't react to defenses exceptionally quickly, and that he tends to stretch plays out looking for the big play down field. Not idea in Kelly's offense, but we'll see if he can adjust.

 
mbuehner said:
My impression of Vick is that he doesn't react to defenses exceptionally quickly, and that he tends to stretch plays out looking for the big play down field. Not idea in Kelly's offense, but we'll see if he can adjust.
Click to expand...
In Kelly's offense, Vick should only have to read one defender to make a decision. The defensive key changes based on the play though, so its not always the same guy.

 
eoMMan said:
Fine. Don't believe me. I'll bump this throughout the season when he's doing awesome!!!
Click to expand...
Great. Just what this board needs, every random poster making prediction threads and bumping them all season long to gloat.

 
Watching Vick run on broken pass plays in the pre-season, I just watch and think to myself, "This freaking guy never learns." He runs like a RB, but simply cannot take hits like a RB. Doesn't seem through 2 pre-season games to still get that and still seems to avoid the slide over the middle/run out of bounds style of play to avoid hits.

I feel like it's the broken record of just waiting for him to get injured yet again.

I do like him in a committee with another solid high/mid QB2. Making him "your guy" for FF in 2013 is basically 00 in roulette. Best of luck.

 
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So...I ended up with Vick after waiting on QB, and have managed to talk myself into this being a great idea with huge potential....

But I have an offer to trade him for Romo. I need to do this, right?

 
mquinnjr said:
Watching Vick run on broken pass plays in the pre-season, I just watch and think to myself, "This freaking guy never learns." He runs like a RB, but simply cannot take hits like a RB. Doesn't seem through 2 pre-season games to still get that and still seems to avoid the slide over the middle/run out of bounds style of play to avoid hits.

I feel like it's the broken record of just waiting for him to get injured yet again.

I do like him in a committee with another solid high/mid QB2. Making him "your guy" for FF in 2013 is basically 00 in roulette. Best of luck.
Click to expand...
Yep. Anyone picking him is doing so with the same confidence that they're picking McFadden, Nicks, Collie etc...

 
Amused to Death said:
mbuehner said:
My impression of Vick is that he doesn't react to defenses exceptionally quickly, and that he tends to stretch plays out looking for the big play down field. Not idea in Kelly's offense, but we'll see if he can adjust.
Click to expand...
In Kelly's offense, Vick should only have to read one defender to make a decision. The defensive key changes based on the play though, so its not always the same guy.
Click to expand...
Understood, but Vick still has to pull the trigger. The length of time between the snap and the ball leaving the QBs hand is critical in this offense. Look at how fast Brady gets the ball out (i believe its fastest in the league). Some of it is mechanics, but recognition is just as important (if not moreso). When we say 'read the defense' thats not only about who the ball is going to.

Even when you know who you the ball is going to, the brain has to process how to get the ball to them. The QB has to take that mental snapshot of where to deliver the ball that his receiver can best catch it (hopefully in stride) while the defender cant get to it, and he has to make minute adjustments throughout the entire throwing motion. Just throwing to a spot isnt good enough and results in ints. Thats where that decisive decision making comes in that the best QBs have.

Take it for what its worth, but Barkley is said to have shown a release speed that is in the Brady/Manning territory (keep in mind Fitzpatrick is around there too though). Theres a reason Matt Barkley is on this team, and it aint arm strength.

 
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mbuehner said:
Amused to Death said:
mbuehner said:
My impression of Vick is that he doesn't react to defenses exceptionally quickly, and that he tends to stretch plays out looking for the big play down field. Not idea in Kelly's offense, but we'll see if he can adjust.
Click to expand...
In Kelly's offense, Vick should only have to read one defender to make a decision. The defensive key changes based on the play though, so its not always the same guy.
Click to expand...
Understood, but Vick still has to pull the trigger. The length of time between the snap and the ball leaving the QBs hand is critical in this offense. Look at how fast Brady gets the ball out (i believe its fastest in the league). Some of it is mechanics, but recognition is just as important (if not moreso). When we say 'read the defense' thats not only about who the ball is going to.

Even when you know who you the ball is going to, the brain has to process how to get the ball to them. The QB has to take that mental snapshot of where to deliver the ball that his receiver can best catch it (hopefully in stride) while the defender cant get to it, and he has to make minute adjustments throughout the entire throwing motion. Just throwing to a spot isnt good enough and results in ints. Thats where that decisive decision making comes in that the best QBs have.

Take it for what its worth, but Barkley is said to have shown a release speed that is in the Brady/Manning territory (keep in mind Fitzpatrick is around there too though). Theres a reason Matt Barkley is on this team, and it aint arm strength.
Click to expand...
Absolutely that's been a major knock on Vick. But it should be beneficial that he only have to key on one guy to make a decision. And to drive home your point about Barkley's quick release - Someone had a stat after reviewing all the passing plays Barkley's average release was a full second faster than Vick's.

I think Vick can excel in this offense for as long as he's healthy. Don't know if I'd go into the season with him as my starter without a great back up.

 
mbuehner said:
Djax and McCoy are great players but aren't gonna stretch the field on anybody. Vicks y/a last season was 6.7, which blows. Career is 7.0, which is subpar.

He hasn't played a full season since he got out of prison. Last season for the first 8 weeks he was healthy, he was QB8, which is nice, but a good chunk of that came from running. He had 10 tds passing and 9 ints in that stretch.

As far as the offense, up tempo should help him wear down the defense and open up some running lanes, but Vick has never been known for his quick reads. Up tempo 3 and out doesnt wear anybody down but the OC's sanity.

Is he valuable where he's drafted? Yeeessss...ish. He's a QB2 with the ceiling of being a low to middling QB1 and the floor of being on the sideline by mid-season. QBBC? Ok, if you're into that, but not as the lead QB I think.

I disagree that this is a 'deep' QB season. Its deep in that there is a wide 2nd tier after the studs, but the drop off in potential between about QB10 and lower is severe. IE- there arent 3 studs and then 15 guys you can live with. There are 5 studs and 4 or 5 more guys with stud potential, then everybody else. That leaves the last couple franchises to take their QBs without a chair, even if they plan on QBBC. You could have 10 Qbs on your roster and you wont likely pick one any given week that will consistenly outperform Luck or Stafford regardless of their matchup... and the Luck/Stafford franchise didn't spend high picks on QBs either.

I think its a good year to wait on a QB... but I think its a bad year to wait too long.
Click to expand...
My List In Ranking Order:Uber Studs:

Peyton

Rodgers

Brees

Studs:

Griffin

Ryan

Stafford

Brady

Luck

Cam

Wilson

Kaepernick

Romo

Thats 12 I'm very comfortable starting. If I catch one of the last 3 on my list, I'll back up with Eli a round or two later. My thought is to wait as long as I can... when I'm no longer sure another one of these 12 will fall to the next round, take the best available at that point. I'm going to be running a count on these guys and which team has a QB already during the draft to help with this.

 
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