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Full agreement on that point. The basis of value drafting of any sort is having an advantage and if you know you are guaranteeing yourself a top-3 QB and top-3 WR (say by taking Moss and C-Pepp as your 1/2 picks), being behind at RB may not be as big a deal.This past draft, goin C-Pepp/Moss could have nailed you two of Tiki/Cumar and Dunn as your RBs. Not a bad team at all.
I'm not saying don't get C-Pepp - get him, but for value. Shark v. Guppy in draft strategy discussion is different than the concept of taking a player you are convinced will do well. I don't even think it is "guppy" and I apologize for using the word. It is potentially a costly drafting mistake to take a player in the first you are likely to get in the second. Even in jurb26's league, where Manning and C-Pepp went in the first, missing on the sure thing QB must mean that someone else that shouldn't be there for you is - there were 7 to 9 clear first round RBs (LT, Priest, Green, Portis, Alexander, Deuce, Edge, JLew and Fred T). if 2 QBs plus Moss go in the first round, one of those RBs fell to the bottom of the first and/or Harrison and/or Holt.So, your draft example proves my point - if you can get C-Pepp at your 2.03, while adding a player at 1.10 who would not be there at 2.03, that's the proper move.Hindsight's 20-20, so it is a bit unfair to pull what the players are doing now as an example - Deuce wasn't worth a first round pick at this point - neither was Portis - but I bet we are all in agreement that before the season started, both of those players should have been selected before C-Pepp, and almost every VBD sheet for a non-2 QB starter league would likely back that up.
Please don't take offense. I actually looked for your initial thread as I remember seeing it over the summer, but couldn't find it right off.I'm simply saying that to my eyes this was a guy that for 4-5 seasons had nothing, showed nothing, and was going to a lousy team that has been in transition for the last 18 years or so. So, yes, I would say chances of him being a Top 10 guy were probably 10-1, at least. Being #1 at least 100-1. Again, I don't doubt you researched - possibly exhaustively, but I can't imagine that research leading you to the conclusion he had anything more than a very slim chance of being a stud - or even that productive - he's never came close on better teams. Its like doing your research on the 99 Rams and somehow deciding that team was going to win the Super Bowl. You can research all you wanted, but never shown me enough data to support the conclusion. My guess is you went on a helluva lotta gut.Nevertheless, hat's off to ya, jwv - as I said, I'll keep an eye on your postings to see if you can repeat next season. A call like that on a player like that is either real damned good or a flawed call that just came out great. Either way, you've hit it over the first few weeks. I hope it continues, cause I'll rub your belly next season.I apologize for hijacking........
No offense taken whatsover. I just don't think that T Jones was that far of a reach. Sure, he could easily bust, but it wasn't such a reach to think that a talented back getting his first chance in a system that fit his skills, who had a great end to last year, would be successful.Heres the link btw: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...topic=98593&hl=
Why do you guys continue to ignore the fact that most times, Cpep is less likely to be threre in the early 2nd than a 2nd tier RB. Heck all of the time! The only reason one would make this move is IF none of the 2nd tier RBs SEPRATED themself from the rest to you. Thus you draft Cpep, the player you see as a difference maker and will still be pleased whichever RB comes back to you. Yes there is the chance that you COULD have still gotten Cpep in the 2nd. If you don't though, you will be upset. Whereas with the RB you just move to the next on the list with little thought or regard.
After breaking down this season, pre draft with DD and VBD. This is how the top 12 given my scoring system and projections looked:1. Holmes2. LT, Portis, Green (3 way tie)5. Moss6. Alexander7. McAllister8. Cpep9. Edge10. Manning11. Lewis12. TaylorIf this is how it broke down for others, or at least similar, then it is not a "guppy" move to take Cpep in the late 1st. Actually, the person who took him got him at 1.10 and got good value based on my preseason VBD or DD. I would imagin my league is not the only one in the world that had it turn out something like this.
Actually no, I'm not being simplistic at all - reread what I wrote. I'm saying your roster as a whole will probably look much better if you forego taking any quarterback at all before round seven. Everyone's assuming a) those third and fourth round running backs are always Chris Brown, Curtis Martin and Thomas Jones and b)the success of all those guys doing well now will continue linearly throughout the rest of the season. There's big problems with both of those assumptions. Done my way, you can have four quality running backs and three good receivers and still end up with a top 10 quarterback. Conversely you will have a very difficult time finding a top 10 running back after round seven. Pepper's good but as we've seen thus far this season, you need many rb bullets to fight through the year - some don't pan out, some get injured, but almost all the ones worth having will be gone early. If you spend an early pick on a qb it's just one less rb bullet you've got to shoot during the season. Meanwhile there are plenty of qbs to go around - and if you strike it right with your early round rbs, you can easily trade for a top 5 qb should you find youself wanting one. I'm saying you can't afford to use either your first or your second round pick on anything but an rb - whoever that rb happens to be. I'd say after Edgerrin James, and possibly before him, you had a large pool of rb's who didn't have much distinction between them. The thing to do is to increase your chance of success by having more opportunites for success in terms of rb by selecting as many players from that pool as you can. As I said for these discussions it's always I got Pepper and Martin, or TJones or whoever's doing well right now that I picked in round 3/4. But I'm not hearing I got Pepper and KJones, or I got Pepper and Marshall Faulk, or I got Pepper and Travis Henry - those were all just as likely. People are having selective reasoning and forgetting about the climate way back when on draft day. It's just not realistic.As for this:
I thought we were talking about Pepper as a round 1 pick? Otherwise you're proving Marc's point....
No, people are not assuming this. I stated earlier in this very thread that the 2 teams that used this strat have the LAST place RBs (10th out of 10) and 8th ranked RBs (again out of 10). This means the even with their weakness at RB, they are still WINNING. Both teams are 3-1!
Maybe you're not assuming this, but I see that assumption in most of the other supporting threads. I'd also say that in the case of those two teams I wouldn't expect their success to continue unless your league seriously favors qbs or seriously devalues running backs. Or maybe they just got lucky and played low scoring teams if it's head to head. How do those teams rank in total scoring?It's four weeks in, absolutely nothing has been proven - people beating their chests saying they've been justified are jumping the gun. Talk to me in December.
Yes, some luck has been on their side thus far. Total points is 4th for 1 team and 6th for the other. It would only be fair though to state that the teams mentioned top RBs are Barlow (who could still turn it on) and S. Davis (who has not been healthy). So with every bit of luck, there also comes some misfortune.
Or Martin, Barber or TJones.
But nobody was trying to argue that those guys were 1st rders pre season. This thread did and still does argue taht Cpep was though. if you can't see the diff. here, I don't even know what else to say. All of those RBs you and Marc have sighted fall into the RB2 tier. Cpep and Manning are Stud QBs. Big differnece.
Interesting, jurb.What are your scoring rules? I am curious b/c two QBs ended up above the WR2.Also, did you have projections for any of these players that were especially inflated? Moss ending up at #5 with Harrison not even in the first is interesting.Given FBGuy scoring of 4/pass TD and 6/rush TD, I had the top 7 RBs in some order, then Moss, then FredT, then Harrison, then JLew.In leagues with pt/rec and/or 6 pts/all TDs, the WRs get bumped, Holt moved up my second round to filtered in with the tier after RB9, and C-Pepp was somewhere around player 13/14/15. Manning got bumped into the early third/late second in 6pt/all TD leagues.I was also high on DDavis, and had him as a potential late 1st round pick.
.5 pts every 10 yds3 pts TD scored2 pts TD pass2 pts for 2 pt conv-1 for INTS-1 for fumbles lostRather stand. I guess you could say that I had different projections than most. As the offseason went on Moss continually distanced himself from the likes of Harrison, Holt, Johnson, and TO to me and the projections reflected it. The same was the case for Cpep and Manning. What is odd is that the next QBs on my list came in at 22 and 24 and they were McNabb and Hassy. So as you can see nothing out of the ordinary other than the projections of how these players would do this year I guess.Edit, at one point of the offseason, I actually had Moss as the #2 player overall. I adjusted of course though and he fell to #5. I highly doubt anyone else would even dream to place a WR that high, but hey thats what DD was spittig out at the time.
What about the yardage?
Well no wonder QBs go so early.I would consider a QB as early as 5, too - I'd even consider a QB #1 overall with yardage equal to RBs' and WRs', A guy like Manning, who racks up 4G+ in yardage a year is certainly worth more than the large bulk of RBs.
