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Well apparently not, cause thats exactly where he was taken in this league and that team is only 3-1 as well. Doesn't seem to have made all that big a difference just yet. PPG, Cpep has McNabb by 2.5 and McNabb has Manning by 1. So while McNabb was a better value thus far, you can in no way say that this strat or pick was a mistake right now.
This is a good point & one that I've seen brought up in defending Moss & Harrison as high picks. At what point does a more "sure" thing's value (say, Manning) outweigh the "riskier" player who may have the higher VBD value or ranking (say, Barlow)? I'm not talking about injury risk, but the likelyhood that a player will hit his projected numbers. This year may be extreme because of all the good RBs who were available a couple of rounds later, but even in a "normal" year I think this question has merit.
Weak. That was the best you could come up with. This is the standard, "I was off base, but I don't want to acknowledge it-so I will reframe the question." McNabb is only one guy. I could just as easily say Culpepper in the first and Martin in third kicks ### over anyone you chose in the first and the third. The point, is that many people who arevery informed about FF think that you are making a serious mistake that reveals a lack of knowledge if you take a qb early. That is a serious mistake. I will grant you, if you take a QB early, you must be right (early Vick owners are dying, I imagine.) I will also grant you that if you take the right QB late (Brady) you are doing great. There have been many late round qb misses this year. Many thought that if they got any of Brady, Farve, Green, Pennington, Garcia etc. they would be fine. If you took Culpepper or Manning, which I did not, you were right and have been right for several years.The point of this original post was that there were a lot of questions about the rb's at the end of round 1 and there were few questions about Daunte. Certainly, if you got Edge or Jamal in this spot, you might be happy. However the other names usually mentioned here, Henry, Barlow, Taylor, have struggled. You could field a very competitive team with Culpepper and any number of players available in rounds 2,3,4,5, and six. It is not like you had to pick Martin- like in your McNabb example. Barber, Thomas Jones, Chris Brown, etc would have been just fine. Staley was there in 4th in most leagues and Dunn was there in the 5th. Griffin's availability depended radically upon when you drafted.I just think it's time to put "the never draft a qb early theory" to bed. In some seasons, that has certainly been the case. In some future seasons that will be the case. As I mentioned in a previou post, there have been several seasons in the last 15 years when a QB was a very viable first round pick for a winning team. I think this year will be another one of thos years.
Um no, this is the exact argument. VBD basically screams take McNabb in the 3rd rather than Culp in the 1st based on the pre-season projections. The odds of McNabb producing close to Culpep numbers were way better than the odds of C-Mart producing Edge or Portis like numbers. Assuming you got C-Mart instead of Duce Staley and are screwed.
Nice to see that you completely ignored the Vick part of the post.
Odds and history will tell you that it is harder to find the RBs, not the QBs like Manning and Cpep. Tons of those 1st rd backs didn't work out (yet) this year. Portis, LT, Green, McAllister, Taylor, Barlow, and DD are all bourder line 1st's that were all said to be picked ahead of Manning and Cpep. None of these guys are living up to their position as of now though.
First- as I said before, you are mentioning only one player- McNabb. You can always point to a player that is outperforming draft position. However, as a VBD question, Daunte is significantly outperforming any league's baseline. Meanwhile- you did not need to grab Martin in the third to be ok at rb. You could have gotten a number of running backs: Chris Brown, Tiki Barber (a man you have been high on all along), or Thomas Jones- as your rb 2 in round 3 if you went rb in round 2. You could have later grabbed Dunn, Griffin or Staley in round four or 5.
.Culpepper thus far has 30 ppg. McNabb- 26, Manning 24 in our rather standard scoring system.The whole point of my topic was that what Culpepper's doing was pretty predictable based on prior performance and his team's situation. For McNabb, he kinda sucked last year so it was a much riskier pick. I'll go on record as saying that Culpepper will still do BETTER in ppg avg for the rest of the year than he has thus far 
. I also think that McNabb will do worse, and Manning will do slightly better.I don't care if it's considered a NORMAL year for RB's, Culpepper merits a 2nd half of the 1st round pick.I've always been a RB, RB, RB type of guy. I wanted to shake things up a little this year and went CPepp at #7 in a 10 team league. When it came my turn to pick, it was 3 people I had in mind, Moss, CPepp, and Edge. When it came back around to me, Edge, Taylor, etc were gone. Barlow was there as the top ranked RB on my list, but I didn't want him (and am glad I didn't take him). I went Holt hoping I could get Chris Brown coming back in the 3rd. Brown went the pick before me, so I grabbed Thomas Jones in the 3rd.RB's fly off the boards in this league, and I got the best QB, a top 5 WR, and (so far) a top 5 RB in Jones. A nice core to any team. My RB2 has been an adventure so far this year, but I have Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell for the longer term (hopefully one of them comes through) and Mewelde Moore and Amos Z. for the next 4 weeks. I think I can stay pretty competitive with any team in the league.
And if you snagged him in the first, you wouldn't have had that option.Taking a QB in the first in any non-2 QB starter/less than 14-teams leagues is a GUPPY move.You are drafting either in the first 6 picks, in which case the RB is more valuable - or MOss is - and you have a decent shot at C-Pepp in the late second.OR you are drafting in the last 6 picks, in which case it is HIGHLY PROBABLE - to the tune of, like, 90% probability, you will still have a shot at C-Pepp in the first 6 picks of the second round.It is not the PLAYER CHOSEN that makes you a guppy there since C-Pepp is as sure a thing in the FF world as there is. It is whether you can get that same sure-fire player in the second round, thus giving your team a shot at a better player in the first for your overall squad, that makes you a guppy for taking C-Pepp in the first. Unless you are picking at the turn in 12 team and smaller leagues, you should never take C-Pepp with your first pick.Bigger leagues than 12 is an entirely different strategy.Pointing to a pairing of C-Pepp in the first with a later selected Tiki, Cumar or Dom Davis is a matter of YOU GOT LUCKY - picking FredT and then C-Pepp in the second was STILL the smarter move, and was still the SHARK move. The end result does not make the move a shark move - playing the proper pre-season strategy when every player is 0-0-0 in stats is what makes one a shark.
Are you not reading the posts in this thread, or just ignoring them becasue it doesn't fit your point very well. Several people did in fact take Manning and Cpep in the mid to late 1st. They have said so in this thread. So how could you have gotten him later? Or is this based of the hyopothetical situation that everyone waits on QBs? I've got news for you, not everyone does and that does not make them foolish for doing so.After doing my very own VB for my up comming draft, Cpep was the 8th player on my list with Manning at 10. I had the 3rd pick, so I didn't have to wrestle that urge though. I can full respect the palyers in my league though (and others) that had to ponder this decision and went with their gut or values. Even in the face of critisisim like this. Even if it would have backfired on them, I would respect them more as a player than if the just followed the herd and took a RB because they are "supposed" to.
It is likely they are the one player in the league who would go QB in the first - there is ALWAYS one, and ususally only one, in every 12 team non-shark league that thinks QB in the first pver Harrison, Moss or the RB8 is a good move.That does NOT make them a shark.
Just to be clear - I did not say it is a guppy league - the INDIVIDUAL PLAYER who spends an 8-11 pick on C-Pepp is the guppy in the league.
I'm sorry Marc, but this makes no sense to me at all. You say taking These QBs is a guppy move even at the end of the 1st. Well IIRC, the RBs that were to be had at the end of the first were nothing but a huge cluster @*#&@ heading into this season. If you don't care a great deal which of these RBs you end up with as none of them seperate themselves greatly from the rest to you, then how is choising the QB who does make you a guppy? Cpep may or may not be there in the early 2nd. If he is, great. If he isn't though your now pissed because you saw him as a difference maker on your team and have missed out. Missed out for a RB that is no more impressive to you than about 5-7 others. How does this make any sense?
No its based no mathmatic probability and experience. Sure, sometimes you win at blackjack splitting Kings, but that doesnt make it the proper strategy. Over the course of your gambling career, you lose money. Winners stick to ideal strategy as often as possible and make money in the long run.
At the end of the 1st though, the probability was on the side of the stud QB. Guys like Manning and Cpep were more sure bets to get you points than "gambling" on a RB. Ehck thus far, Manning and Cpep have been better bets than even LT, Green, Portis, and McAllister. The safe way to go would be stud WR or QB, not boarderline RB who may or may not crack the top 10.
No, but add iot up BEFORE the seasonm, when Harrison and Moss were consdiered a half a step away from each other. RB8, plus Moss, plus Harrison = position 11 at the earliest that C-Pepp should be considered.If you take C-Pepp before the #11 slot in ANY 12 team league or smaller you are the guppy.So basically only those who agree with your strat are "sharks."
No- you just haven't played very long and you think your short term history with FF speaks to how it should be played. Your inexperience/short term memory speaks volumes. Farve and Young have been top 3 end of the year picks. You were an idiot not to take them in those years. Just because you drafted a washed up Dan Marino based on Man Love in the first round a fews ago doesn't mean you shouldn't draft a QB early.People get in way over their heads when talking value. This is value- you draft the best player that you are uncertain is available on your next pick. If you are at 1.9 or 1.10, you don't know if Culpepper will be available at the turn. As has been mentioned above, if you think Henry, Taylor, Barlow, Rudi, Davis etc are similar, you can take Culpepper and then who is available in round two.Contrary to many FBG's opinions, including the great David Dodds, you did not have to overpay this year to get a good runningback. Very nice ones were avaialbe in rounds 3,4,and 5.
You are kidding on this, right?
Compared to running backs, which is apples and oranges. The bottom line is you are simply more likely to find value at QB at all points in the draft than RB. This year has been an anomale so far with mid round RBs, just like sometimes holding 2-7 will win you a hold em pot. Statistically, you're more likely to score more fantasies points with a 1st round RB and later QB than a first round QB plus later round RBs. Simple scarcity. If you really are so sure all the second half 1st round RBs are busts, you should be desperately trying to trade out of that spot, either up or down.
Y'know, it'd be cool if you weren't so condescending just because you're an administrator. Ohhhhh, you're so cool shark.Most people here have played this game a long time & dedicated way more time to it than could be considered healhy. I suppose if Culpepper scores 40 a game & the next best QB scores 20, then you're a 'guppy' for taking him in the first round?
Did you consider that maybe he won't last until the 2nd round? OOOOooooobviously if you can snag him in the 2nd it's more beneficial to do so. Thanks for enlightening us. How many years will Culpepper outscore the #2 fantasy QB before he's a consencus 1st rounder? None.Your wrong on this on Marc.Each year is different, if you have played a long time you'd know that.If Culpepper throws for 4500 yards/runs for 500/and has 45 total TD's this year where do you think he should go next year? (I'm not saying he will, i'm just using an example)Each year is different, in some years it is a guppy move, in others it's not.If you don't realize that I think you might want to look into the mirror if you want to see a guppy.No offense but it's true. Each and every year is different. To state as a fact that taking a QB in the 1st is a guppy move is flat out wrong.
Excuse me, if you have a problem, keep it in a PM and off the board.
Yes, but thats one player. So if one player was a better value pick, then you made a poor pick?Thats like saying..."C-Mart in the 3rd was a better pick than Chris Brown in the 2nd, so that means Brown was a bad pick."
No- I am not. My best guess is you have played 5 or 6 years, and you think that is a huge sample set. It isn't.In 1992-1994, Steve Young's end of the year vallue was 3,1 and 1. In 1994-1997 Farve finished a 3,2,1 and 3 overall. If you knew that or remember that, you would not make statements like "Drafting a QB in round 1 is a guppy move." It speaks equally of arrogance and ignorance.
So 15 years of FF Play isn;t a long time these days.I defend my statement as applicable to this past year.In another year, C-Pepp in the first might not be the guppy move - this past year it WAS.
Re-think, re-word, re-analyze - and make no assumptions as you know what it makes you.
Never say never.If in the future a QB does this and seperates himself from his peers at his position by a large margin he will easily be worth a 1st rounder.My point is that if you don't allow yourself to adjust you have no hope in this hobby.
But thats cut and dry mathematics that never changes. In FF, everything changes each and every year. The whole point of this post was that THIS YEAR, there doesn't appear to be a great deal of difference between late 1st rounders like D Davis, Barlow, Faulk, Dillon, Taylor and 3rd rounders like C Brown, T Jones, C Mart, W Dunn, Barber, so you might as well take a great QB and then get one of the 3rd rounders.
Staley and C Mart
And thank you
