Before his injury riddled year last year, when he came back hurt and clearly had little burst, PT averaged 4.8, 4.8, 5.4 ypc each season and was annually one of the most effective RBs on a per touch basis. Wondering what you see causing the fall off to Beanie Wells style production in 2011 if he's healthy enough to get 150 carries again? They don't see a lot of 8 man fronts in NO and PT averaged 0.8 and 0.9 ypc MORE than the Saints average in 2008 and 2009 when he was "relatively" healthy and a big part of the offense.I see time share early and then it's a health thing. Neither PT or Ingram are models of durability, combined I think they total up around 300 carries and 1500 yards with double figure TDs. I'm not going to try and predict who gets hurt first.
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Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jason Wood
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laughinboy_2000
Footballguy
'drater said:
Best posting of this thread so far...
bengalbuck
Footballguy
300 carries seems way too low to me. You mentioned 2009 and that year they had 468 rushing attempts...If you project only 300 for Ingram/PT, who is getting the other 150+?'drater said:
I personally see those 2 combining for closer to 400 carries.
Bush, Ivory and Heath Evans (if resigned) with his typical short yardage vulturing. If Bush leaves I'd def upgrade those carry and yardage totals to closer to 400 but I doubt they hit that level tbh. They rushed 468 times in 2009 but didn't top 400 in 2008 and 2010. I think Payton realizes they're a better team when they run to set up the pass, so call it 425 team carries. Honestly, New Orleans is a really hard team for me to predict what's going to happen with any degree of confidence, they have a ton of FA's at vital positions and are going to have to make some hard decisions in the next couple weeks.
bigmiiiiike
Footballguy
Ingram is a guy who will be going in the late 2nd/early 3rd round of most non-ppr drafts by the time the season gets closer. See Ryan Mathews last year and Moreno the year before. I think Ingram will be given the opportunity to be the bell cow back here, not because he is a better runner than the other backs on the depth chart, but because he'll be a very capable blocker and pass catcher. This extra time on the field may hurt him in terms of hitting a rookie wall, but should allow him to compile low RB1/high RB2 stats. Ingram will be worth the price you have to pay for him.
280 carries, 1230 yards, 13 total TDs
280 carries, 1230 yards, 13 total TDs
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Oof.
gandalas
Footballguy
Before his injury riddled year last year, when he came back hurt and clearly had little burst, Beanie Wells averaged 4.5 ypc his rookie season and was one of the most effective RB the second half of his rookie year. Wondering what you see causing the fall off to Marion Barber style production in 2011 if he's healthy enough to get 200+ carries again?Not sure why you are so high on Pierre and so Low on Beanie? Pierre both has more competition and a worse season last year. Beanie had more rushing yards in 2010 as a rookie than Pierre had in any season (matched him one year), and more rushing TDs than Pierre has had in any season but one.'drater said:
I love Beanie, rode his second half surge to a couple titles and burned too high of a pick on him last year, from a production standpoint. He's actually on my sleeper list this year, or bounce back list, or w/e you want to call it. Beanie was a bad example, for exactly the reason you highlighted. If I could get Beanie Wells in the 8th/9th and PT in the 9th/10th as my RB 3-4 or 4-5 in redraft leagues, I'd be doing backflips.bigmiiiiike
Footballguy
I'm only referencing the climb up the draft boards that usually comes with top rookie RBs, not comparing the expected production of Ingram to Mathews/Moreno.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I figured that, but maybe Adrian Peterson (1,341 rushing yards, 13 total TDs his rookie year) would be a better comparison if those are your projections.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Neither do I, not even close actually, which is why I posted it to put some of these projections in perspective. Keep in mind that Peterson did all that damage with only 238 carries as well. Even a workhorse like AP gave way to the veteran Chester Taylor for 186 touches. I don't see Ingram getting 238 carries, and I don't see him being nearly as effective as Peterson was.Even if you assume Reggie Bush leaves, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory are still in the picture. Say what you want about Thomas, but he's an effective veteran that knows the Saints offense like the back of his hand. He's not going to disappear simply because New Orleans drafted Ingram. Fantasy players always get excited about "the next big thing," especially when they're drafted into a very good offense.
Mr Rodgers neighborhood
Footballguy
Ingram isn't AD like. But Mathews isn't Ingram like. Ingram has faced top talent in the SEC for years, as did Peterson with the big 12. Mathews didn't have to play against big time schools throughout his career. Ingram will put up good fantasy numbers, but Peterson was a beast monster, and probably unfair to compare ANY rookie runner to.
You don't think he can borrow or copy one of the vets playbooks? That's a serious question.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
You don't have to be AD like to have big success. Is Arian Foster AD like? Is Ryan Grant AD like? Because their first year getting the lion's share of carries were huge.
Too many factors come into play.
I'm probably snagging Ingram with the 1.1 in my dynasty FWIW. I like his talent a lot.
Too many factors come into play.
I'm probably snagging Ingram with the 1.1 in my dynasty FWIW. I like his talent a lot.
JuSt CuZ
Footballguy
Mark Ingram uninjured in crash with 18-wheeler ---> http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/22/mark-ingram-uninjured-in-crash-with-18-wheeler/
griff321
Footballguy
Good point there about the competition. I'd like to find a statistical breakdown of the top rookie RBs to have a baseline of what is a usual statistical output.
BSanders2009
Footballguy
I'm a Saints fan and I watch all their games and one thing I can tell you is that Sean Payton loves to cycle through running backs. Yes, I believe that Mark Ingram will lead the team in touches but I don't think it will be by a large margins like some other people seem to believe. Payton likes to mix between a power-back (when he has one) and a receiving back as he has used with Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. I predict that Bush will be gone and Pierre Thomas will see plenty of playing time. The breakdown for the Saints backfield:
Mark Ingram 235 carries 1000 yds 8 TDs; 28 rec 200 yds 0 TDs
Pierre Thomas 140 carries 700 yds 5 TDs; 50 rec 400 yds 2 TDs
Chris Ivory 50 carries 225 yds 1 TD
And this is assuming Ingram stays healthy for 16 games... I'm actually very concerned about his health. VERY CONCERNED!
As you can see, I wasn't as excited as other Saints fan trading a 2011 2nd and 2012 1st to get him.
Mark Ingram 235 carries 1000 yds 8 TDs; 28 rec 200 yds 0 TDs
Pierre Thomas 140 carries 700 yds 5 TDs; 50 rec 400 yds 2 TDs
Chris Ivory 50 carries 225 yds 1 TD
And this is assuming Ingram stays healthy for 16 games... I'm actually very concerned about his health. VERY CONCERNED!
As you can see, I wasn't as excited as other Saints fan trading a 2011 2nd and 2012 1st to get him.
mjr
Footballguy
I gave PT a 3.5 avg because that's about all he was putting up last season before the injuries came into play. On top of that, you've got to figure the guy might lose at least a little motivation to impress after the team spends a first rounder at the position.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Didn't DMC dominate the SEC better than Ingram? It took him years to become FF relevant
mjr
Footballguy
It's not easy becoming FF relevant in Oakland. Just ask Randy Moss. I don't think Ingram is going to have a hard time putting up decent stats in New Orleans.
griff321
Footballguy
I think he'll put up stats as well, but when is my concern. I just don't feel confident that Payton will give him much opportunity in year one. It seems that when rookies do get opportunity from Payton it's as a result of injury. With Ingram's skyrocketing value it's hard for me to rely on injury. Ingram just seems to hold too much risk and not enough reward for what he's being valued at right now.A lot of rookie threads get biased feelings based on dynasty owners and while it's right for them to covet someone like Ingram, it isn't right for a redrafter to take him at the inflated cost because dynasty leagues drove up ADPs.
Mr Rodgers neighborhood
Footballguy
He did, but he did it based purely on speed and a lot of it came out of the wildcat that they ran. Ingram was between the tackles, in a pro style rushing attack.
Mr Rodgers neighborhood
Footballguy
Another thing to remember when talking about New Orleans always having a RBBC, he's never had a Mark Ingram. He had a Duece McCallister post knee blow up, and ran the heck out of him.
-Ingram hasn't had reconstructive knee surgery. For all of the talk about him being injury prone because of last year, it was still a minor procedure.
-The Saints are in win now mode, and are going to get whatever they can out of the only first round runningback in the draft. I think Ingram will determine how much the Saints use him. I fully believe they'll give him as much as he can handle.
-I don't believe you trade away a 2011 2nd, and a 2010 first to have him in a full on RBBC. Yes, Thomas will get touches, but I expect the bulk of the workload, including inside the redzone to be Ingram territory.
Ingram is the most talented runningback Payton has ever had. Reggie Bush is a niche player, Pierre Thomas isn't a bell cow, and Duece while great, wasn't close to what he was prior to his knee blowing up.
Past performances from Sean Payton are not indicitive of future performances in this case.
While I'm not predicting Peterson type numbers as a rookie, I'm thinking 1000-1250 yards and 10-12 touchdowns.
-Ingram hasn't had reconstructive knee surgery. For all of the talk about him being injury prone because of last year, it was still a minor procedure.
-The Saints are in win now mode, and are going to get whatever they can out of the only first round runningback in the draft. I think Ingram will determine how much the Saints use him. I fully believe they'll give him as much as he can handle.
-I don't believe you trade away a 2011 2nd, and a 2010 first to have him in a full on RBBC. Yes, Thomas will get touches, but I expect the bulk of the workload, including inside the redzone to be Ingram territory.
Ingram is the most talented runningback Payton has ever had. Reggie Bush is a niche player, Pierre Thomas isn't a bell cow, and Duece while great, wasn't close to what he was prior to his knee blowing up.
Past performances from Sean Payton are not indicitive of future performances in this case.
While I'm not predicting Peterson type numbers as a rookie, I'm thinking 1000-1250 yards and 10-12 touchdowns.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
While you use the wildcat against McFadden(it was called wildhog)Ingram also had the benefit of having Julio Jones on the outside a great OL and a great D.Ingram just isn't THAT athletic, so people come up with all of these excuses for him. When Bama needed Ingram last year he didn't show up, look at his stats in their losses.
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Hoart Petterson
Footballguy
Wildly overvalued, imo.
Mr Rodgers neighborhood
Footballguy
Are you saying that opposing teams were worried about shutting down the Bama pass instead of the run? The focal point of the Bama offense is running the ball up the middle. And Ingram doesn't have to be THAT athletic. He doesnt need to break 40 yard runs. He has vision and is a tough tackle. He's everything you need in a between the tackles running back.And yes, I do think that Ingram running a pro style offense in the SEC translates better to the NFL than does the Razorbacks running McFadden and Felix Jones in a wildcat offense.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
You're wildly assuming again.Having one of the best WR's in all of college football(julio jones) is a huge advantage for Ingram. Something that McFadden didn't have the benefit of at Arkansas. Don't you think defenses played a little differently having to account for that.DMC in college:05)176 carries 1113 yards 6.3 11 TD06)284 carries 1647 yards 5.8 14 TD07)325 carries 1830 yards 5.6 16 TDIngram in college:08)143 carries 728 yards 5.1 12 TD09)271 carries 1658 yards 6.1 17 TD10)158 carries 875 yards 5.5 13 TDDMC was more successful in the SEC even though he was a more marked player. He even struggled in the NFL for 2 years. Ingram isn't as athletic and you agreed. How many RBs in the NFL that are limited athletically are "that" successful in the NFL?He can be a decent RB in a RBBC, but he won't put up the #'s people are posting in this thread.
golfguy
Footballguy
some interesting stats here. however, the other huge difference in the NFL is that ingram has an elite level QB, wrs and TEs and oline. DMC has a good line and thats about it. I'll just that a lot of people didn't think that emmit smith had elite level talent when he came into the NFL either. a lot of people weren't sold on ADP or chris johnson for that matter or a lot of other successful backs. scouting and evalutation of talent is not an exact science at all.ingram has a good if not great situation because of the talent around him. I also think people are forgetting how many games the saints should be winning in the 4th quarter and looking to run out the clock, and i think ingram gets a lot of these carries.230 carries, 5.03 ypc 1158 yards rushing, 9 tds. 25 recs 200 yards 2 tds. for ingram his rookie year imo.
Mr Rodgers neighborhood
Footballguy
Nowhere did I say Ingram wasn't athletic. I said he doesn't have long speed to break off long runs. Bottom line is that I'll take a guy who's tough to bring down and has great vision over a guy with speed. Emmitt Smith turned out pretty good without that speed, because his vision and ability to make tough yards were his strengths.And again, using college stats makes no sense. If we're looking at numbers then every Texas Tech WR and QB should be first round picks. As I said earlier, Bama utilized a pro style/balanced attack. Arkansas utilized a HEAVY rushing attack which had 2-3 NFL runningbacks on the field at once.I think we're getting off topic here with bringing DMC into the picture, but if you would just answer me one question...You're on the three yard line and you have Ingram and McFadden to choose from. Who are you trusting more to break through the line and score a TD?
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I'm saying Ingram isn't athletic. Will he be as tough to bring down in the NFL with bigger DL/LB/DBs???Emmitt Smith had one of the best supporting casts of all time that's why he turned out and guess what, Emmitt is very overrated. He played 13 seasons and had only 4 seasons with a 4.3 ypc or higher. What am I arguing with a 12 year old? I brought up DMC b/c he played in the same SEC. I'm not comparing Ingram to a RB from West Virginia Tech here.What does that question have to do with anything?I just have trouble getting excited about a RB that didn't produce well his last year in college football and isn't very athletic.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
So he had a down year because of injury and now he's not athletic? Give me a break. You take the track stars and I'll take the football players and we'll see who wins more games.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I'd put him on par with Moreno.Athletic=more than speed. Ingram isn't that fast, agile, or quick. Before someone brings up his 1.53 10 yard, Glen Coffee had the same split. Ingram also was dead last in bench press reps. He had a down year due to injury...okay, who's to say he ever regains his 2009 form?ETA:He ran a 4.62, had 31.5 vertical, 9'10 broad jump and 21 reps on the bench.Anthony Allen had 4.59, 24 reps, 41.5 vertical, 10'0 broad jump and I don't think anyone will say Anthony Allen is very athletic.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
I don't know if I ever does. But I think he will.
Mr Rodgers neighborhood
Footballguy
So you're now at the point in your argument where you start the name calling. That's cute. If you really are dumb enough to not understand that McFadden's system doesn't equate to the NFL as does Ingram's style, then I can't help you out. You may as well be comparing a spread style QB to one that's played in Stanford's pro style offense. It's apples and oranges. He has the vision and the skills to get you 4.3 or 4.4 yards a carry. That's plenty good. And as far as Emmitt Smith goes... Even if he's over rated, he's still one of the top 10 running backs of all time. Ingram doesn't have to be one of the greatest ever. He just has to be a good fantasy player for a few seasons. And if we're talking fantasy here, who cares if he's got 4.2 or 4.1 a carry if he's still totaling you 1400 yards and 10 TD's. Last time I checked, my league doesn't give you points on your average.And no one told you that you have to be excited about Mark Ingram, although we do ask that you not be a #####.
Mr Rodgers neighborhood
Footballguy
The combine doesn't compute vision, which is the single most important thing as a runningback. Moreno lacks it. Ingram does. He also does have enough moves to avoid/break tackles. The 40 for a runningback means nothing. How many times a game is a runningback going to run 40 yards on a single play?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
When you talk about vision, the player I always think of is Shaun Alexander. The guy wasn't all that great athletically but man did he have vision and the ability to set up blocks. If Ingram can do that, he'll soar.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Is this your first time to the SP? I've been called much worse and didn't cry about it.It's just annoying you continually bring up the system they were in. EITHER WAY SEC defenses played both of them. That's the comparison, get it?The entire point was all of the statistical projections are very high on Ingram for this season. Not many RB's come in year one and get 1400 total yards and 10 TDs, much less a RB that is limited.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
He had enough moves to avoid/break tackles in 2009, with a great team around him. Then he lost Terrance Cody as his escort in short yardage situations, injured his knee in training camp and then all of a sudden he isn't the same player. In Bama's 3 losses Ingram finished with 41 yards(3.7), 97 yards(4.6), and 36 yards(3.6). But now when he gets to the NFL his vision will just take over and his tackle breaking abilities? It will be more difficult for him, because D's will be bigger/stronger/faster.Vision...how do you know it wasn't large holes that Alabama opened up? Or Julio Jones making the safety play a couple of yards deeper to make the angle more severe to get in the play? I'm going to go on a limb and say that Alabama's OL is probably better than every DL they played last year. Oh wait, we could just check out Alabama's backup RB Trent Richardson's stats...he outproduced Ingram.I listed off much more than 40 time. Actually the most telling measurable is broad jump, it shows explosion in the RB's legs. Ingram failed in that department too.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Or two Hall of Fame OL on the left side in Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson. What happened to Alexander after Hutch left?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Injuries. But remember that the Saints have a very good offensive line right now.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Yeah that as well. It was sad, he was like two different people.The Saints don't have HOF players on that OL. Plus they have many weapons on offense and in the backfield. I think Ingram can be successful in a RBBC, but he won't be putting up these large #'s people are posting.
griff321
Footballguy
Why is that? I don't see that happening at all. Most coaches run out a vet in those situations. CT often ran out games for AD. Not that it's going to be the case everywhere, but most coaches don't run out a face of the franchise in garbage time, so why do you think it'll happen here?'golfguy said:
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I agree, but the Saints do a good line. Let's call it a Top 10 line, which I think is reasonable. I guess the questions come down to what Payton is going to do. I just googled him and the rumor mill would have you believe he's heading to Dallas because his wife moved their family back there in preparation for divorcing him. I didn't like that much. So there is at least some uncertainty there.Secondly, how will he be used? I think he will be put on the field a lot, I can see 270 carries for the young buck, especially if he's good. I believe he is very good, like Deuce McAllister good. You don't, and that's just a difference of opinion. I think he is far better than Pierre Thomas or Chris Ivory. Reggie Bush obviously feels the same was, remember his tweet when they drafted Ingram? "It's been fun" or some such. So you have Payton, who is a great offensive mind giving him full endorsement by simply giving up so much to get him. You have Reggie Bush quaking in his boots when the pick is made. That's two people who are far closer to the situation that you or I giving huge endorsements of Ingram's talent. If he's as good as Payton and Bush think he is, he'll show it quickly. If he does that, he'll earn a lot of carries. If he's playing well and getting a lot of carries, the only thing that can slow him down is injury, because this offense is going to score a lot of points. I like his chances at 275 carries for 1265 yards (4.6 ypc)25 receptions for 230 yards (9.2 ypr)10 combined scores.(4) 100 yard rushing games.'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Top ten line is fair, although I believe both Jermon Bushrod and Carl Nicks are UFA.Very interesting stuff from Sean Payton, I didn't know that information.Whether I like him or not isn't important as you indicated...which is why I often use statistics.You have him at 275 carries at 4.6 YPC for 1265. This is my issue in the thread.In 2010, only 10 RBs had at least 275(we can include Hillis if you wish who had 270) but only two of them had 4.6 YPC or higher. Arian Foster at 4.9 and Adrian Peterson at 4.6. Bradshaw had 4.5, Hillis 4.4, MJD 4.4, CJ2K 4.3, Turner 4.1, Rice 4.0, Mendy 3.9, Sjax 3.8, and Benson 3.5. So Ingram is going to walk into the NFL and be on the same level as Foster and AP?
I'll eat my fookin hat if Ingram sniffs 275 carries. Here's the thing about Payton and the Saints. No teams utilizes as many formations, plays, players. With a backfield full of healthy players, Payton will use them all in a variety of ways, in a variety of plays, out of tons of different formations. He'll use Ingram and PT back to back out of the same formation, just to screw with the DC. He'll set it up so the defense thinks they know what's coming, then BOOM...completely new wrinkle out of the same formation with the same players.Then he throw them both out there in the I formation double bunch TE's and throw a long seam route TD. Football is like chess to him and he enjoys beating the other coaches mentally as much as he does winning games. It's why they're one of my favorite offenses to watch, he's a technician he way he sets things up with misdirection and sleight of hand. And none of that includes letting the same guy tote the rock in the same plays 17 times a game. Maybe if he's the only back left standing by around week 8, otherwise there's no way I see him logging the carries necessary to live up some of these lofty projections.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I have him at 275 carries because I do my projections assuming a 16 game slate (meaning I don't project injuries). So there may have been 10 guys who actually did it last season, that isn't a good metric for my purposes. Obviously injuries mount as the season progresses. But if I don't project injury, it stands to reason that at more than 10 guys would have gotten 275+. Ryan Grant, Clinton Portis, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore all had injuries. Had they not, I'd think they'd have topped out over 275. The best comparison though is Pierre Thomas. Thomas had 18+ carries in 3 of his 6 games last season. His first two games he logged 37 carries. He was on pace for 296 carries (for only 936 yards). I think Ingram is a lot better than Thomas and if he stays healthy (again I don't factor in injuries) he will get at least as many carries as the inferior Thomas was on pace for.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
That's a small sample size to base your projections(carries) on.What about that 4.6 YPC average?
golfguy
Footballguy
because that is the kind of back that he is. a grinder with good balance and vision. PT, ivory, etc all have fumble issues, and none of them are really the back that ingram is. just my thoughts, and might be wrong, but i don't think i will be.
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