Martz is going to dramatically transform the 49ers Off. (1 Viewer)

[Muahahaha]

This article got me thinking: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?.../SPQB12KDLS.DTL

While I don't necessarily care for the guy, I have to begrudgingly give Mike Martz his due.

It appears that he is the ultimate QB coach and offensive mastermind. He has turned two relative unknowns into NFL starters and arguably turned Jon Kitna's career around. He built the greatest show on turf, then went on to transform Detroit's offense from 28th in the NFL to 16th in just two years. Interestingly enough, in the two years since he left St. Louis, the Rams have sunk from the 11th ranked offense to take the 28th place slot formerly occupied by Detroit. Marc Bulger's YPA has gone from 8.0 to 6.3 and his QB rating has gone from 94 to 70. Coincidence? Care to make any predictions about Detroit's offensive ranking at the end of the year without Martz? How about Jon Kitna's effectiveness?

The 49ers are 32nd in yards, passing & scoring offense. Last year, their QBs averaged 5.2 yards-per-attempt. Is J.T. O'Sullivan the next Kurt Warner? Who had heard of Kurt Warner before Kurt Warner became Kurt Warner? If anybody can transform J.T. O'Sullivan, it is probably Martz. In the preseason, this was an offense that was looking downfield and scoring. Yes, it is the preseason. But the contrast from last year is massive.

The question is at what cost? Martz lost his last two jobs due to sacks, turnovers, and unbalanced play calling. Nolan probably hired him out of desperation, knowing that if the offense didn't improve, he would be crossing his fingers he could sell his house. Is Martz's brand of offense incompatible with winning?

Another interesting question is what the Mad Scientist will mean for Gore. Is the playcalling going to be so unbalanced that Gore only gains 40 more total yards while the passing offense improves by 800 yards? Dodds is predicting exactly that. On paper, Gore should be a slam dunk to have a banner year. But Martz's reputation precedes him. I myself find him to be the biggest enigma in the 1st round.

Should be interesting.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I would disagree with any plaudits being thrown Martz wat at all...

For one, as it relates to Bulger and the Rams offense, the year after Martz left, Bulger had a career year (4300 yards; 24/8 ratio), while Stephen Jackson had 2300+ yards from scrimmage, and the team scored 23 PPG. Last year was a wash as that club essentially was devastated by injuries that didn't spare anyone, the O-Line in particular.

Secondly, Martz gets alot of his reputation off building the Greatest Show On Turf. Do you realize that that offense consisted of 4 future Hall Of Famers (Faulk, Holt, Bruce, Pace). That doesn't include Warner who was sporting MVP form.

As it relates to his time in Detroit, on average - the Lions averaged 27:42 of possession time - the worst in the NFL during that span. In other words, his insistence on a 2:1 pass/run ratio did his defense no favors. As far as Kitna is concerned, while he certainly appreciated the opportunity to be a starter again, his last season as a starter in Cincy produced a season on par if not better than either of his two seasons in Detroit.

In short, I think Martz's acumen and playcalling wizadry is a mirage. What he accomplishes, is done to the detriment to the overall success and well being of his team.

 

[Banger]

What he accomplishes, is done to the detriment to the overall success and well being of his team.

I don't disagree that he hurts the team but he certainly helps the stats of wr's/qb's from a fantasy POV.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Martz took over two very poor passing offenses and has produced at least a Top 9 passing offense every year as a coordinator. We all forget the QBs Martz went through in St. Louis (Warner, Trent Green (brought with him from Washington), Bulger, etc.)

 

[Muahahaha]

For one, as it relates to Bulger and the Rams offense, the year after Martz left, Bulger had a career year (4300 yards; 24/8 ratio)

Martz was fired after five games in 2005. Bulger's stats since then:QB Rating:2005: 94.42006: 92.92007: 72.3YPA:2005: 8.02006: 7.32007: 6.3I see him getting worse. Yes, he had career highs in TDs and yards in 2006, but largely only due to a career high in attempts. Interestingly enough, he was sacked more times in 2006 than at any point in the Martz era. I did not expect that.

As it relates to his time in Detroit, on average - the Lions averaged 27:42 of possession time - the worst in the NFL during that span. In other words, his insistence on a 2:1 pass/run ratio did his defense no favors.

Totally agree. One reason why I think Gore is such an enigma this year. Freakish playcalling. A big downside to his improved offense. I'm not arguing that he wins games, I'm just arguing that he improves offenses. The side effects may actually cause you to LOSE games. That may be why he keeps hopping jobs.

 

[a_rackowski]

Quick trivia - when was the last Martz team to throw for MORE touchdowns in a season than INTs?????

 

[Muahahaha]

Quick trivia - when was the last Martz team to throw for MORE touchdowns in a season than INTs?????

I'll let somebody else guess since I looked all this stuff already. But, wow, lots of sacks and ints. Start your defense with confidence!

 

[Lord Lucan]

He has presided over some fantastic talent at WR and some ordinary or injury-hit offensive lines at Both St Louis and Detroit in recent years, and the stats reflect both those scenarios. It's questionable whether his WR talent at SF this year is close to what he had either at St Louis or Detroit, though. If he can make this passing attack prolific, the jury won't be out any more, at least in terms of his ability as a passing guru (rather than offensive guru).

 

[Banger]

He has presided over some fantastic talent at WR and some ordinary or injury-hit offensive lines at Both St Louis and Detroit in recent years, and the stats reflect both those scenarios. It's questionable whether his WR talent at SF this year is close to what he had either at St Louis or Detroit, though. If he can make this passing attack prolific, the jury won't be out any more, at least in terms of his ability as a passing guru (rather than offensive guru).

He turned those great wr's on St. Louis into one of the most prolific scoring offenses in the history of the NFL and he's made some very ordinary/bad wr's into very productive ones as well. Who was the leading wr on Detroit last year? Not Calvin, not Roy, it was McDonald by 16 catches and Furrey was only 2 behind Roy for 3rd best on the team. The prior year? Furrey outcaught Roy 98 to 82. Furrey/McDonald are even being drafted a year later. I have no fear that he can turn a bunch of scrubs into very successful wr's, McDonald and Furrey are prime examples of his ability to do so. Like him or not he knows how to pass the ball. Can he run a balanced offense? Win TOP? Do all the things that successful offenses do? Those are different questions but he can make average/below avg into productive ones and can turn bad wr's into productive ones, probably better than any OC I've seen.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

I would disagree with any plaudits being thrown Martz wat at all...For one, as it relates to Bulger and the Rams offense, the year after Martz left, Bulger had a career year (4300 yards; 24/8 ratio), while Stephen Jackson had 2300+ yards from scrimmage, and the team scored 23 PPG. Last year was a wash as that club essentially was devastated by injuries that didn't spare anyone, the O-Line in particular.Secondly, Martz gets alot of his reputation off building the Greatest Show On Turf. Do you realize that that offense consisted of 4 future Hall Of Famers (Faulk, Holt, Bruce, Pace). That doesn't include Warner who was sporting MVP form. As it relates to his time in Detroit, on average - the Lions averaged 27:42 of possession time - the worst in the NFL during that span. In other words, his insistence on a 2:1 pass/run ratio did his defense no favors. As far as Kitna is concerned, while he certainly appreciated the opportunity to be a starter again, his last season as a starter in Cincy produced a season on par if not better than either of his two seasons in Detroit.In short, I think Martz's acumen and playcalling wizadry is a mirage. What he accomplishes, is done to the detriment to the overall success and well being of his team.

Well put. As OP alluded to, it'll be tough for the 49ers offense to be worse than last year. Most likely they'll be better than last year but worse than '06, and Martz will get credit for that, yet Norv Turner will still be widely regarded as a baffoon...kinda funny how that works.

 

[Tanner9919]

I would disagree with any plaudits being thrown Martz wat at all...For one, as it relates to Bulger and the Rams offense, the year after Martz left, Bulger had a career year (4300 yards; 24/8 ratio), while Stephen Jackson had 2300+ yards from scrimmage, and the team scored 23 PPG. Last year was a wash as that club essentially was devastated by injuries that didn't spare anyone, the O-Line in particular.Secondly, Martz gets alot of his reputation off building the Greatest Show On Turf. Do you realize that that offense consisted of 4 future Hall Of Famers (Faulk, Holt, Bruce, Pace). That doesn't include Warner who was sporting MVP form. As it relates to his time in Detroit, on average - the Lions averaged 27:42 of possession time - the worst in the NFL during that span. In other words, his insistence on a 2:1 pass/run ratio did his defense no favors. As far as Kitna is concerned, while he certainly appreciated the opportunity to be a starter again, his last season as a starter in Cincy produced a season on par if not better than either of his two seasons in Detroit.In short, I think Martz's acumen and playcalling wizadry is a mirage. What he accomplishes, is done to the detriment to the overall success and well being of his team.

Has to be the best posting so far this year! Kudos ! well said!

 

[Saint]

He has presided over some fantastic talent at WR and some ordinary or injury-hit offensive lines at Both St Louis and Detroit in recent years, and the stats reflect both those scenarios. It's questionable whether his WR talent at SF this year is close to what he had either at St Louis or Detroit, though. If he can make this passing attack prolific, the jury won't be out any more, at least in terms of his ability as a passing guru (rather than offensive guru).

He turned those great wr's on St. Louis into one of the most prolific scoring offenses in the history of the NFL and he's made some very ordinary/bad wr's into very productive ones as well. Who was the leading wr on Detroit last year? Not Calvin, not Roy, it was McDonald by 16 catches and Furrey was only 2 behind Roy for 3rd best on the team. The prior year? Furrey outcaught Roy 98 to 82. Furrey/McDonald are even being drafted a year later. I have no fear that he can turn a bunch of scrubs into very successful wr's, McDonald and Furrey are prime examples of his ability to do so. Like him or not he knows how to pass the ball. Can he run a balanced offense? Win TOP? Do all the things that successful offenses do? Those are different questions but he can make average/below avg into productive ones and can turn bad wr's into productive ones, probably better than any OC I've seen.

This is actually a bit misleading. Roy and Calvin were injured and did not play 16 games last season whereas McDonald/Furrey played in all 16 games. If you projected the stats out, Roy was on target for an 1100 yd /8 TD season, head and tails above the other WRs... so I would say Martz used the healthy players to make plays, which any NFL coach would do. The big issue in Detroit was a poor offensive line and a bunch of scrub RBs (Bell, Jones, Pinner). However, I do agree with Lucan in that the Martz system increases the value of the WR positions, and by default, also raises the value of the QB position.Will SF end up the same way as Detroit? Well, I think the big issue in SF is a similar situation to detroit, offensive line woes. However, in compensating for the line woes, Martz now has Gore, who is closer to a marshall faulk than any of the scrubs back in Detroit. He brings in a QB who knows his system already and is not learning it, and a WR who knows the system and can help the others (Bruce). Added to that he has a TE that is a huge target with great hands (Davis) and a couple of outstanding rookies.If the O-line can give some time for the QB to allow the WRs to run their patterns, then SF can surprise many people this year. As a matter of fact, the 16th round of your draft you can probably pick up bye week fodder that have the potential to drastically outplay their ADP.

 

[Judge Smails]

I do think that the 49rs will surprise a bunch of people, and that their passing game will be the rage of FA pickups after the first few weeks.

 

[Muahahaha]

Granted it's the preseason, but the 49ers passing efficiency for the preseason was 17th in the NFL. They finished 32nd in the league last year.

For context, here are the top 5 teams in preseason passing efficiency:

1) Detroit

2) NY Jets

3) New Orleans

4) Seattle

5) Houston

And the bottom five:

28) KC

29) Indy

30) Atlanta

31) Tennessee

32) Baltimore

 

[Osaurus]

Poor, poor Alex "little hands" Smith...classic QB high draft bust.

 

[CalBear]

I have no fear that he can turn a bunch of scrubs into very successful wr's, McDonald and Furrey are prime examples of his ability to do so. Like him or not he knows how to pass the ball. Can he run a balanced offense? Win TOP? Do all the things that successful offenses do? Those are different questions but he can make average/below avg into productive ones and can turn bad wr's into productive ones, probably better than any OC I've seen.

He doesn't "know how to pass the ball"; the thing is he doesn't know how not to pass the ball. His Detroit offenses pretty much sucked; they just led the league in pass attempts and were last in rushing attempts. Kitna performed better in Cincinatti.This does have fantasy relevance, as it's safe to say that there will be more passes, more receptions, and more passing/receiving TDs in SF this year than there were in 2007. There will be fewer rushes and fewer rushing TDs. Overall there will probably be a marginal improvement, but only because the offense was so horrendously bad last year. It still will suck overall. There will probably be some WRs worth rostering just due to the huge number of passing attempts.

 

[Carver Lee]

I have no fear that he can turn a bunch of scrubs into very successful wr's, McDonald and Furrey are prime examples of his ability to do so. Like him or not he knows how to pass the ball. Can he run a balanced offense? Win TOP? Do all the things that successful offenses do? Those are different questions but he can make average/below avg into productive ones and can turn bad wr's into productive ones, probably better than any OC I've seen.

He doesn't "know how to pass the ball"; the thing is he doesn't know how not to pass the ball. His Detroit offenses pretty much sucked; they just led the league in pass attempts and were last in rushing attempts. Kitna performed better in Cincinatti.This does have fantasy relevance, as it's safe to say that there will be more passes, more receptions, and more passing/receiving TDs in SF this year than there were in 2007. There will be fewer rushes and fewer rushing TDs. Overall there will probably be a marginal improvement, but only because the offense was so horrendously bad last year. It still will suck overall. There will probably be some WRs worth rostering just due to the huge number of passing attempts.

Say hi to a 2007 Kevin Jones owner

 

[Muahahaha]

I have no fear that he can turn a bunch of scrubs into very successful wr's, McDonald and Furrey are prime examples of his ability to do so. Like him or not he knows how to pass the ball. Can he run a balanced offense? Win TOP? Do all the things that successful offenses do? Those are different questions but he can make average/below avg into productive ones and can turn bad wr's into productive ones, probably better than any OC I've seen.

He doesn't "know how to pass the ball"; the thing is he doesn't know how not to pass the ball. His Detroit offenses pretty much sucked; they just led the league in pass attempts and were last in rushing attempts. Kitna performed better in Cincinatti.This does have fantasy relevance, as it's safe to say that there will be more passes, more receptions, and more passing/receiving TDs in SF this year than there were in 2007. There will be fewer rushes and fewer rushing TDs. Overall there will probably be a marginal improvement, but only because the offense was so horrendously bad last year. It still will suck overall. There will probably be some WRs worth rostering just due to the huge number of passing attempts.

I would suggest that before you get all bearish on the 49ers running game, that you read this article by Doug Drinen: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?cat=2.Basically, he shows there to be a high correlation between passing efficiency and fantasy points for running backs. Martz might be an exception to this because of his propensity to pass. But, given how involved Gore is in the passing game, it might not matter.

 

[Gargoylez]

In Detroit I think Martz struggled with a limited QB, less then good Oline and no real RB to speak of. He had great WR's... but thats like have 21" chrome rims on a Chevy cavalier...

SF's O line is better... some... Gore is light years ahead of any RB on the Lions roster, and Osullivan knows Martz already from previous stints in the NFL. I am not saying they will EXPLODE! But they should easily jump from dead last in the league to minimal the mid to upper 20's, IMO.

 

[Banger]

He has presided over some fantastic talent at WR and some ordinary or injury-hit offensive lines at Both St Louis and Detroit in recent years, and the stats reflect both those scenarios. It%s questionable whether his WR talent at SF this year is close to what he had either at St Louis or Detroit, though. If he can make this passing attack prolific, the jury won%t be out any more, at least in terms of his ability as a passing guru (rather than offensive guru).

He turned those great wr%s on St. Louis into one of the most prolific scoring offenses in the history of the NFL and he%s made some very ordinary/bad wr%s into very productive ones as well. Who was the leading wr on Detroit last year? Not Calvin, not Roy, it was McDonald by 16 catches and Furrey was only 2 behind Roy for 3rd best on the team. The prior year? Furrey outcaught Roy 98 to 82. Furrey/McDonald are even being drafted a year later. I have no fear that he can turn a bunch of scrubs into very successful wr%s, McDonald and Furrey are prime examples of his ability to do so. Like him or not he knows how to pass the ball. Can he run a balanced offense? Win TOP? Do all the things that successful offenses do? Those are different questions but he can make average/below avg into productive ones and can turn bad wr%s into productive ones, probably better than any OC I%ve seen.

This is actually a bit misleading. Roy and Calvin were injured and did not play 16 games last season whereas McDonald/Furrey played in all 16 games. If you projected the stats out, Roy was on target for an 1100 yd /8 TD season, head and tails above the other WRs... so I would say Martz used the healthy players to make plays, which any NFL coach would do. The big issue in Detroit was a poor offensive line and a bunch of scrub RBs (Bell, Jones, Pinner). However, I do agree with Lucan in that the Martz system increases the value of the WR positions, and by default, also raises the value of the QB position.Will SF end up the same way as Detroit? Well, I think the big issue in SF is a similar situation to detroit, offensive line woes. However, in compensating for the line woes, Martz now has Gore, who is closer to a marshall faulk than any of the scrubs back in Detroit. He brings in a QB who knows his system already and is not learning it, and a WR who knows the system and can help the others (Bruce). Added to that he has a TE that is a huge target with great hands (Davis) and a couple of outstanding rookies.If the O-line can give some time for the QB to allow the WRs to run their patterns, then SF can surprise many people this year. As a matter of fact, the 16th round of your draft you can probably pick up bye week fodder that have the potential to drastically outplay their ADP.

Marshall was record setting Marshall due to two great wideouts, a good QB and a good line and a new an unpredictable fast turf offense of which SF has none of.... Gore and an underachieving Davis (which I own) is a decent start but goes downhill pretty quick from there.

 

[Banger]

I have no fear that he can turn a bunch of scrubs into very successful wr%s, McDonald and Furrey are prime examples of his ability to do so. Like him or not he knows how to pass the ball. Can he run a balanced offense? Win TOP? Do all the things that successful offenses do? Those are different questions but he can make average/below avg into productive ones and can turn bad wr%s into productive ones, probably better than any OC I%ve seen.

He doesn%t "know how to pass the ball"; the thing is he doesn%t know how not to pass the ball. His Detroit offenses pretty much sucked; they just led the league in pass attempts and were last in rushing attempts. Kitna performed better in Cincinatti.This does have fantasy relevance, as it%s safe to say that there will be more passes, more receptions, and more passing/receiving TDs in SF this year than there were in 2007. There will be fewer rushes and fewer rushing TDs. Overall there will probably be a marginal improvement, but only because the offense was so horrendously bad last year. It still will suck overall. There will probably be some WRs worth rostering just due to the huge number of passing attempts.

I%m not going to argue that he%s a good coach because I don%t think he is but he will pass the ball a ton which from a fantasy POV can be very good. As far as Kitna being better in Cinn he finished 24, 17 and 7th when he was a starter and finished 6th and 13th on Detroit. Pretty much a wash....but he did throw for over 4,000 yards (4000/4200) in both seasons in Det. vs. a high of 3500 in Cinn.

 

[CalBear]

I would suggest that before you get all bearish on the 49ers running game, that you read this article by Doug Drinen: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?cat=2.

Basically, he shows there to be a high correlation between passing efficiency and fantasy points for running backs. Martz might be an exception to this because of his propensity to pass. But, given how involved Gore is in the passing game, it might not matter.

Drinen's article is about passing efficiency. The ANYPA measure looks at net yards per attempt and then adjusts downwards for sacks and INTs. The Martz teams in Detroit were awful by this measure; they had a net YPA in the bottom half of the league, averaged 20+ INTs, and led the league in sacks. It seems extremely likely that all of those things will be true in San Francisco as well.

 

[CalBear]

I%m not going to argue that he%s a good coach because I don%t think he is but he will pass the ball a ton which from a fantasy POV can be very good. As far as Kitna being better in Cinn he finished 24, 17 and 7th when he was a starter and finished 6th and 13th on Detroit. Pretty much a wash....but he did throw for over 4,000 yards (4000/4200) in both seasons in Det. vs. a high of 3500 in Cinn.

I agree that the high number of passing attempts makes it potentially meaningful from a fantasy perspective. But let's look at Kitna's last two years in Cincinatti vs. his two years in DetroitYear, Completion %, AY/A, TD, INT2002: 62.2%, 5.5, 16, 162003: 62.3%, 6.1, 26, 152006: 62.4%, 5.8, 21, 222007: 63.3%, 6.0, 18, 20At most, this is a wash, and most would say the TD/INT numbers (42/31 to 39/42) show much better performance in Cincinatti.Kitna's not a bad QB; he's effective when given weapons. Martz didn't do anything to improve Kitna; he just had him throw a whole lot more.

 

[Banger]

I%m not going to argue that he%s a good coach because I don%t think he is but he will pass the ball a ton which from a fantasy POV can be very good. As far as Kitna being better in Cinn he finished 24, 17 and 7th when he was a starter and finished 6th and 13th on Detroit. Pretty much a wash....but he did throw for over 4,000 yards (4000/4200) in both seasons in Det. vs. a high of 3500 in Cinn.

I agree that the high number of passing attempts makes it potentially meaningful from a fantasy perspective. But let%s look at Kitna%s last two years in Cincinatti vs. his two years in DetroitYear, Completion %, AY/A, TD, INT

2002: 62.2%, 5.5, 16, 16

2003: 62.3%, 6.1, 26, 15

2006: 62.4%, 5.8, 21, 22

2007: 63.3%, 6.0, 18, 20

At most, this is a wash, and most would say the TD/INT numbers (42/31 to 39/42) show much better performance in Cincinatti.

Kitna%s not a bad QB; he%s effective when given weapons. Martz didn%t do anything to improve Kitna; he just had him throw a whole lot more.

which led to more yards...6,769 on Cinn vs. 8,276 in Det (22% increase)...which led to him being a better fantasy QB. I think the foundation in Cinn was a lot better than it was in Det so that has to be taken into account as well....I%m not going to argue that Martz is a super-genious or a great coach but one thing he does is throw the ball a ton which is good from a fantasy prospective for QB%s/Wr%s and generally hurts the RB%s...

 

[W1cked]

I wouldn't say he turned Kitna's career around, either. Kitna isn't doing any better really than he was when he was QB of the Bengals. He was given a opportunity to start mainly because the Lions wanted a leader on offense/ at the quaterback position after they ran their course with Harington and Harrington showed none of that as the Lions QB. It was more opportunity than Martz doing anything.

 

[Banger]

I wouldn't say he turned Kitna's career around, either. Kitna isn't doing any better really than he was when he was QB of the Bengals. He was given a opportunity to start mainly because the Lions wanted a leader on offense/ at the quaterback position after they ran their course with Harington and Harrington showed none of that as the Lions QB. It was more opportunity than Martz doing anything.

He's still the starter this year...I'll be curious how he finishes this year, although he has a maturing superstar this year as opposed to an injured rookie....

 

[W1cked]

I wouldn%t say he turned Kitna%s career around, either. Kitna isn%t doing any better really than he was when he was QB of the Bengals. He was given a opportunity to start mainly because the Lions wanted a leader on offense/ at the quaterback position after they ran their course with Harington and Harrington showed none of that as the Lions QB. It was more opportunity than Martz doing anything.

He%s still the starter this year...I%ll be curious how he finishes this year, although he has a maturing superstar this year as opposed to an injured rookie....

Maturing Superstar? I hope you are not talking about Stanton. Nevermind I see you are talking about Calvin Johnson