I looked at the last 9 games for the Lions which is when Jim Bob Cooter took over as the OC after Lombardi was fired.
It is my understanding that JBC simplified some of the plays so that the team could execute them better. They did win 6 of these games, all after the bye week adjustments.
329 pass attempts 36.6pa/gm (43pa/gm before JBC) 586 pass attempts for 16 games.
216 rushing attempts 24ra/gm (19.7/gm before JBC) 384 rushing attempts for 16 games.
The Lions ran the ball about four more times per game after JBC took over and passed the ball 6 times less per game.
Here is how often the players were targeted under JBC
C.Johnson 81 targets 9/game 24.6%
G.Tate 67 targets 7.4/game 20.3%
T.Riddick 53 targes 5.9/game 16.1%
E.Ebron 42 targets 4.7/game 12.8%
J.Bell 20 targets 2.2/game 6%
A.Abdullah 17 targets 1.9/game 5%
TJ Jones 15 targets 1.7/game 4.5%
B.Pettigrew 15 targets 1.7/game 4.5%
L.Moore 14 targets 1.6/game 4%
It is any ones guess as far as how Calvin Johnson's targets will be divided.
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Calvin Johnson lined up in the slot on 20% of his snaps last season. 22% of his targets from the slot.
#Lions
8:21 AM - 20 Aug 2014
I haven't seen the numbers for 2015 but I do know Calvin Johnson has been being used in the slot more in recent seasons, including last season, than he had been in the past, and in my opinion, more than he should have been. He took a lot of hits running routes over the middle that he wouldn't have if they kept him outside.
If we consider there will be sacks and some throw away targets, as well as JBC running the ball a bit more 586 passing attempts seems reasonable and would fit with the Lions running a similar number of total plays as last season of 1030.
I think it takes some time for a free agent WR to build timing with their new QB and offense. It is hard to expect a free agent to come in and be the primary target right away.
Golden Tate was the leading WR for the Lions in 2014, his first season with the team, however Calvin Johnson was injured and only played in 13 games.
Tate is a very good WR. He has led the Lions in receptions the last two seasons (yes even with Calvin fully healthy).
Based on Tates recent utilization with the team I expect that to continue and perhaps Tate even has his role expanded a bit more. He should maintain that 20% market share of the targets or see a few percentage points more now that Calvin is gone.
Eric Ebron is entering his 3rd season now, when TE usually break out (if they do) He and Tim Wright who played in the 2 games Ebron missed combined for 81 targets last season. I consider this to be his floor in 2016. I think he will pick up a lot of the slot looks Calvin was getting last season as well. So I see Ebron getting 80-100-120 targets this season.
I would expect Riddick to continue to see a lot of targets, about the same target range as I have for Ebron, 80-100-120 targets.
Just using median range this works out to be
Tate 140 targets
Ebron 100 targets
Riddick 100 targets
Abdullah 40 targets
TJ Jones 30 targets
Other 30 targets
This is 440 targets so another 140 targets are left.
I see Marvin Jones as getting about the same targets as Ebron or RIddick in the offense and Tate leading the team. There is a chance that Jones could be pretty even with Tate at 140 targets each, but I would expect that to be more in Tates favor. For example Tate might have 150 or 160 targets this season, while Jones gets 80-100-120 targets.
I would expect Jones to be used as a deep threat more, so his yards per catch may be higher than the other players and there is good potential for him to score TDs as he has shown the ability to do before.
With a career 62.3% catch rate this would be 50-63-75 receptions.
If Jones had 140 targets this would be 87 receptions. I just don't expect him to get that much volume with all of the other players established in the offense.
Jones is fairly priced at his current ADP based on the median range projection of 63 receptions, I just don't really see the upside that others are talking about.
Some expect Jones to get more targets than Tate and I just don't understand why.
I can completely understand people expecting Jones targets to increase because the Lions throw more than the Bengals do. That is true, they do. A difference between 100 passing attempts at a 20% share should pretty easily put Jones in the 120 target area. However the Lions might not throw the ball quite as frequently as they have been if the 9 games with JBC last year remains the plan, there is room for the Lions to run more than 386 times as well. This will depend a lot on Abdullah, but I would expect some improvement from him and more volume. So perhaps the passing attempts wont be quite as high as people think.
It seems like everyone keeps telling me to stop sleeping on this guy. I think those folks are sleeping on Ebron and Tate.
That is what is fun about this game.